NAB Morning Call

Thursday 6th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLonger end yields pushed higher overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was in part down to softer manufacturing data from the US, although there’s a chance markets have overreacted to what was a pretty mixed picture. For example, whilst the Manufacturing ISM fell, the Manufacturing PMI, for the same month, released at the same time, rose. Markets are hoping, though, that softer data on the back of falling inflation means more cuts can be squeezed in by the Fed at the back end of the year. There’s also discussion on the Australian minimum wage decision, why oil has fallen so sharply overnight and the importance of US job openings data tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEurope’s core inflation number rose slightly on Friday. That won’t change the ECB’s bolted-on decision to cut rates this week, but the likelihood of more than one other cut this year is diminishing. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Friday’s Core PCE Deflator number in the US was lower than last time, but if it had been 0.002% higher it would be the same as last time. Not enough to change expectations from the Fed, with speakers now in the blackout period ahead of the June 14 meeting. Today |Australia’s wage award decision will be watched, and GBP for Q1 is out this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly?On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way?Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. Even Nobel economist Paul Krugman is unsure where things are heading. He said he could argue either way as to whether or not interest rates will remain higher for longer, and whether R* rate should return to 2019 benchmark levels, or has it moved higher. Does anyone know? After a quiet start, this week picks up with the US PCE deflator on Friday, and Australian retail sales and CPI prints before that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schnabel from the ECB did just that on Friday, warning that, although a June cut was appropriate, a ‘cautious approach is needed beyond that’. If Friday was quiet, expect more of the same today, although data picks up later in the week, including CPI for UK, Canada and Japan, and the latest RBNZ meeting, plus NVIDIA earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There’s been a lot said about the Labor federal budget this week. One of the big questions is whether the energy subsidy alongside the tax cuts and rent assistance, will do enough to bring down inflation. In this Weekend Edition JB Were’s Sally Auld argues that, whilst we might see a reduction in headline inflation, the government’s fiscal expansion is at odds with the RBA’s monetary policy and it is likely to delay any moves down in interest rates. The extra government spending might be worthwhile if it can be shown to improve productivity, but its not clear how that will happen. There is recognition, however, that these are unusual times and the need for greater onshoring and a need for governments to fast track support for emerging sectors. But how? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the rising US deficit. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, which saw the unemployment rate rise more than expected.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts. What about the employment numbers today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little stronger than expected in March, along with wages data. Australia gets its wage inflation data today, as markets come to terms with last night’s Federal Budget.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on everyone’s lips around the world. For the US the PPI (producer prices index) will be watched keenly because it feeds through directly to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. CPI numbers tomorrow will add to the picture. The UK’s employment and wages data today will show whether the upside surprise in GDP in the last quarter is being reflected in the labour market, which could also delay the slowdown in inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors could push back rate cuts a little further. And what about locally? What is the potential impact of more government spending and wage increases in the budget tomorrow? Meanwhile, demand is more of an issue for China than inflation. Aggregate financing fell for the first time in 20 years and Joe Biden is expected to announce a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of efficiency as we switch to more labour-intensive output, particularly in the services sector, should we assume that productivity growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. It’s a question Phil puts to Danielle Wood, chair of the Productivity Commission. They discuss what is being done to fix Australia’s productivity shortfall and what can we learn from countries where productivity is higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick higher, adding pressure for a rate cut there although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, it’s wage inflation that really counts. The UK is expected to see GDP return to positive territory today, and China’s PPI and CPI numbers are out over the weekend.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after one or two cuts, alongside a Fed that’s not moving. So what’s the Bank of England’s strategy? August seems the most likely month for a cut, says Gavin, but we’ll find out more at the meeting and the press conference that follows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts yesterday simply reaffirmed that belief. Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed also spoke of the possibility of a hike if inflation and jobs remained strong. In Europe it’s a different story and there’s a real possibility that the Riksbank will cut rates today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro strategists work”, she says in this weekend’s podcast, ”but it won’t drive our decision making process”. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally  Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECD’s growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGerman inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australia’s latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. That’ll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europe’s relatively lacklustre growth opportunity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings – a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of what’s to come on the Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping  the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australia’s employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHow markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this?JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChristine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.