NAB Morning Call

Monday 5th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation.NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to  4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession. The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumping 25 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s less than today but not enough of a reduction to contain temperature growth. The numbers are based on Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario, which assumes we let the economy drive the decision making, without any further policy or investment strategies. But Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, says the differential between Net Zero and the Economic Transition scenario has been narrowing each year, so there is grounds for optimism. They also touch on the question of nuclear energy. It might make sense in some markets, but is it right for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There is no waiting for the BoE. They cut rates but NAB’s Gavin Friend says it was a finely balanced decision. Services inflation continues to be the UK’s Achilles heal, but their manufacturing numbers are doing better than most. Tonight all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls, particularly as Jerome Powell has indicated that the fed will be looking closely for any slowdown on the jobs market as, with inflation largely under control, it focuses more on the second part of its dual mandate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was on the table if things carried on as they are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest from the Fed, and suggests that yesterday’s softer than expected CPI print for Australia puts paid to any further talk of rate rises. But it’s also not good enough to bring forward cuts. The Bank of Japan did lift rates by 15bp, pushing yields up and a 2 percent rise in the Yen. Today the Bank of England meets. Will they really cut rates head of the Fed? And Meta reported strong earnings after the close, helping bolster after-hours trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 31st July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how.  Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music though is one of an anticipated slowdown. That’s why oil prices and industrial metals are down so much. McDonalds reported a fall in global sales in their latest earnings report. European GDP is the major number out today, a long with job openings for the US. And listen in for how US earnings results give a foretaste of where the US employment market is heading.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGet ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold, one is expected to lift rates and the other is 50:50 on a cut. He also discusses with Phil last week’s core PC numbers, which showed inflation was slowing, along with earnings and consumer spending. A scenario that is very supportive of cuts by the FOMC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market has hit highs not seen since the eighties, and the BoJ has moved interest rates into positive territory. It all points to a win for Japan according to Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist contractor for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. Suddenly companies feel enabled to raise prices and offer higher wages, helping increase margins and drive investment. He calls it Japan’s Inflation Revolution. But will it last? Was this the shot in the arm the economy needed, and how much is being driven simply by a weaker Yen. What’s to stop that weakness being eroded and Japan’s competitiveness diminished? Harry provides some very useful insights into what’s driving the value of Japan’s currency and why a weaker Yen could be here to stay. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates.  But is it too small to have much impact?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts could be happening more slowly in Europe, with some in the ECB indicating that there might be only one more cut this year. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns from his holidays to discuss the market moves and the latest data, including Australian and UK employment numbers, and looking ahead to Japan’s CPI today. We also cover the Netflix earnings results, just out. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwhile, have reacted to comments from Donald Trump, who said he’s like to see a weaker US dollar, to compete against the weak Yen and Yuan. Today we look at the latest New Zealand and UK inflation numbers, and their influence on rate cuts, as well as looking ahead to today’s employment data for Australia. And the ECB, expected to be on hold, but there’s a press conference elater, if you want to stay up for it. If not, listen in to tomorrow’s podcast and get a decent night’s sleep in the meantime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and another strong session for the Russell 2000. Today the focus is on CPI. We’ve just had it for Canada, who seem to have it under control, and later we get it for the UK, where services inflation is putting up a fight, and New Zealand, where the economy is hanging out for a rate cut.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NAB’s S kye Masters gives Phil her take-outs from Jerome Powell's interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. and another session seeing the yield curve ending steeper. Inflation data is out for Canada tonight, after a business survey showed further weakness in the economy. They also discuss the slump in New Zealand’s PMI’s and more data showing the extent of the China slowdown. Although many are expecting Chinese authorities to announce e very little new in their Third Plenum today, can they really sit by and wait? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Republican win. So, will we see much market impact as markets re-open today? Markets on Friday were driven by a hjgher than expected PPI read, at odds with the weaker inflation numbers earlier in the week. Phil asks how this has changed market pricing for rate cuts. They also look at Friday’s US banks earnings, China’s trade data over the weekend. Plus, what is the Third Plenum and why should we pay attention to it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit analyst Evy Noble says this is also reflected in occupancy levels, although there is a large variation from one capital city to another. Phil asks Michael Bush, NAB’s head of credit research, what this will mean for property prices and rental yield. Michael says the issue is exacerbated by new supply already in the pipeline. So how does the market evolve? Will companies try to tempt workers back to the office, or will they downsize and try and spread the days that people choose to work from home?The detail is contained in the NAB research note, The return to Office - are we now at the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rotation is the key word for the day. The other word is Yen, which fell 1.8 percent on the CPI news. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s clearly been some opportunistic intervention by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile Joe Biden gives his press conference at the NATO conference shortly, which is widely billed by some commentators as the make or break moment for his Democrat nomination for the Presidency. And UK GDP better than expected but lost on the British people who seem more obsessed with the outcome of a certain soccer match over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incidentally, how many Clooney movies can you spot in today’s introduction?Meanwhile, markets are more focused on what Jerome Powell has been saying and whether the fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the end of the year, while closer to home, the RBNZ struck a noticeably more dovish tone at their July meeting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent gives his interpretation of what’s said and how markets have responded. The biggest moves today have been in US equities, is that Fed related or jockeying ahead of earnings season? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in expectations, with a September cut seen as most likely. With a light calendar today, a lot of the focus will be on the US ten year note auction early tomorrow morning and whether weaker demand could push yields higher. The RBNZ meets today with any expecting a fairly dovish hold. The hold is extremely likely, but dovish? Let’s see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some time to form. Will it be one of such compromise that nothing will be achieved? But is it symptomatic of Europe’s future. German trade data showed a sharp fall in imports yesterday. The EU is set to impose fines of countries falling outside their rules on government debt. Is there rally much hope for a European recovery? They also discuss Powell’s testimony tonight – will he use it as an opportunity to signal a change in attitude for the Fed? And NAB’s business survey is out today. Hopefully it will be a little more positive than last month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFrance looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about how the markets will respond. There was plenty of reaction to the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. The headline number suggested a rise in the people in work, but the reality is it showed an easing jobs market which is reflected in raised expectations for a September rate cut. We also look ahead to the RBNZ this week and the question mark hanging over Jo Biden’s head. Will he make it as Presidential nominee for the November election?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is far from even. There are some cities where prices are falling. So, what are the factors driving prices up? And how can it be that prices have risen so much in the last year even though the RBA is pursuing such a hefty tightening cycle, pushing interest rates higher.Eleanor takes Phil through the latest PropTrack data and looks at the inevitable question, where to from here? If buyers have taken a longer-term view, buying when interest rates have peaked, does that mean we are less likely to see a spike in prices when the rates start to fall? Or not? Logic and house prices can be strange bedfellows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are three big political stories today. First, the French election round two could still deliver a majority for Marine LePen’s party. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are not viewing that as such an alarming outcome, saying there’s been a bit of a learning curve about what this new party could do. The UK is likely to face a change of government today, which could bring new optimism to a country that is clearly ready for a change. And, as Gavin observes, the challenge to Biden’s Democrat leadership hasn’t gone away yet. Data wise, today’s key number is the US non-farm payrolls. The numbers to watch are the employment rate and average hourly wages.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit new highs as bond yields fell overnight. Markets clearly thought the latest ISM Services number, which came in surprisingly weak, is just the sort of slowdown indicator that will encourage the Fed to act sooner rather than later. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the numbers, the market reaction, and the diverse attitudes of Fed members displayed in the latest FOMC minutes. There’s also discussion on yesterday’s Australia retail sales, that came in a little stronger than the RBA might like, but it’s just one month and there are a lot of seasonal factors at play. Prepare for a quiet day today, with the US on holiday. But keep an eye out for the Bidden story. Could pressure be mounting for him to step out of the race, for someone younger who is able to finish sentences. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares rallied late in the session, on the back of comments from Jerome Powell. So what did he say? That’s the first question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on this morning’s podcast. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation barely moved and unemployment is sticking close to where its been for more than a year. There’s fresh concerns about the French election at the weekend too. Today Australia’s retails sales are out along with US Services ISM, which should show further slowing of growth. And the US knocks off early in readiness for the 4th July holiday tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTreasury yields continue to rise. NAB’s Syke Masters says here are a range of factors at play ,but one is the seeming lack of concern on both sides of politics to address the US government’s rising deficit. In Europe concerns about a National Rally majority eased as almost 170 candidates withdrew from the second round election to avoid diluting opposition. A higher-than-expected index in the Tanken Large Manufacturing index in Japan provides another reason for the BoJ to lift interest rates. And the RBAA minutes will be scanned for suggestions about how seriously the potential of a rate hike was/is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-in the outcome and there’s been very little movement in early trade. Markets responded a little more to Biden’s shaky debate performance on Friday. On the data front, the Core PCE Deflator, the fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was good news – a little better than expected if you look at the second decimal place! Germany’s CPI is out today and the Central Banking get-together kicks off in Portugal.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward. It’s never a straight line, the fixed income strategist at Janus Henderson says.Does that mean we have to put aside the hope of a soft landing, anywhere in the world? Emma suggests we haven’t seen the cumulative impact of the tightening of policy yet because it takes time to filter through. But what about government spending, in Australia, the US and Europe?  Does it help or hinder the fight against inflation, and does it provide opportunities for investors.Emma give her take on the macro picture and the philosophy behind Janus Henderson’s approach to investing, and talks about Australia’s opportunity for investors – a mix of stability and instability and knowing what to do with it. Also, if the slow decline in central bank rates is one of the surprises of 2024, what does Emma think will be the next surprise that most people aren’t seeing? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t a lot of data of significance around overnight, but the combination of a range of weak data prints fuelled some hope that the fed will cut sooner than markets had been moved towards. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a slight overnight rally on Australian bonds was likely to be a response to what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser has been saying, suggesting a partial CPI print for one month was hardly enough to base rate expectations on, and there’s a lot more data before the August meeting. The key number today is the US Core PC deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets will be very sensitive to this number, with Ray suggesting its important to look to the second decimal place because, on an annual basis, that can make all the difference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday’s inflation number for Australia was a big surprise, pushing up yields, particularly at the front end, and pushing back expectations for cuts by the RBA. Some commentators – not NAB – are arguing this reinforces the case for a rate rise. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says travel was a largely responsible for the rise. He also talks about speculation from the RBA’s Chris Kent about the neutral rate, being somewhat higher than many might have expected. This morning’s other big story is the fall in the Yen to a 38 year low, and the response from China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada’s inflation came in hotter than expected in May and that’s pushed up Canadian bond yields overnight, but there’s been limited reaction to that – or anything really – on currency markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the print has pushed back expectations for the Bank of Canada to cut again in July. What happens next depends on the data. We get more Australian data today, with the CPI print for May and a speech by the RBA’s Chrisopher Kent.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are three broad themes on today’s podcast. First, a missed day on US equities again, with falls in the S&P and NASDAQ. NVIDIA shares are well down, but even a minor correction is only a deny in their upward trajectory this year. There’s also the divide between the European and US economies, evidenced by last weeks PMIs. But is the difference really that great. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril agrees with the ECB’S Isabel Schnabel that, when it coms to fighting inflation, they’re not that far apart so it would be wrong to assume a divergence in policy by the two central banks. The other theme is the continued fall in the Yen and the repercussions it could have across the region, including the Australian dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPMIs on Friday continued to show the dichotomy between Europe and the US. Even within Europe we saw clear evidence of the weakness within Germany. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what these latest PMI numbers mean for central banks. Could the strong US print delay the Fed into next year, whilst providing the reasoning for the ECB to perhaps move a little faster? It all depends on the inflation data, of course. And we don’t have to wait long for that, with thew Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCE deflator out at the end of the week and European CPIs ahead of that.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Markets reacted rather swiftly to the news that President Macron had called a snap election for France, just after his own party had been heavily beaten in the European elections by Marine Le Pen’s Front National. This week Phil talks to Anne Bucher, from Bruegel, an independent European economic think tank. Anne is a former Director-General in the European Commission until October 2020 – in fact, she joined the commission in 1983 working across a wide variety of policy areas over may years. She has an innate knowledge of European politics.So, how does she see the French situation play out? Can we expect the more extreme elements of the Front National agenda to be watered down? Has the UK’s Liz Truss moment served as a warning bell for any party promoting higher debt?Whilst we can expect some compromise, Anne says the big casualty will be progress. As the EU fights battles with the right it’ll struggle to develop a cohesive plan for growth and climate change. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEurope is in the midst of the group rounds of the Euros, but when it comes to central bank cuts Switzerland is already the champion, with Britain the favourite to cut next. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. In the US markets seemed unfazed by Neel Kashkari’s claims that hitting the Fed’s inflation target might take a year or two. Perhaps his views were surpassed by more soft data overnight, including another rise in jobless claims. New Zealand’s GDP was a little higher than expected, but it won’t last, says Sally. And tonight the PMI data-dump for Germany, France, the Euro area, the UK and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK, which has seen inflation rise to one of the highest levels, is also one of the first to get it down to target, with the headline rate down at 2% yesterday. Even so, the Bank of England won’t cut rates when they meet today, although perhaps three members of the panel might call for it. Het markets are now fully pricing the first cut at the back end of the year. NAB is expecting August. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains why the variety of opinions and expectations. He also talks about the EU’s plans to implement penalties for the large number of member states who are holding too much debt. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank and Swiss National bank meet today. He Swiss re expected to cut rates and win a football match. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe most valuable company in the world is not Apple or Microsoft. It's NVIDIA. Can anyone stop them? Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold but in a way that was more hawkish that expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the committee even discussed the potential for rate hikes. NAB still expects a cut in November, nonetheless. In the US retail sales were weaker whilst government spending rose. Could all this extra government spending delay the fall in US inflation? Today UK CPI numbers are released and the US takes the day off, keeping NVIDIA on top for another 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFrench politics still has a long way to run, but markets have calmed down a bit on the hope that a LePen government might not be so radical. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says ECB chief economist calmed markets by suggesting there was nothing disorderly in bond markets that would see the need for the central bank to intervene. It’s going to be an uneventful RBA meeting today, with rates on hold and no new forecasts to map out the path of cuts for this year and next. All in all, a fairly quiet session. Except US equities, of course, that broke records, again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week was dominated by two big stories. First ,the dichotomy between US inflation data and the downgrade of rate cuts predicted by the Fed. Secondly, the snap French election , which could turn about to be very bad news for President Macron. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the market reaction to both by the end of the week, along with a sprinkling of data from Friday, the BoJ meeting and loan data from China. This week we hear rate decisions for the RBA, the BoE, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. Ray explains which one might cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There’s been growing interest in private credit markets lately. So, what exactly is it? Phil talks to Gillian Gordon, Head of Alternative Investments and Responsible Investing at JB Were, who says it’s basically non-bank lending. So why would businesses choose to borrow directly from investors rather than issuing bonds, and what’s in it for the lender? Take twenty minutes to get across the ins and outs of private credit, and why there’s been so much interest in it lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou might have expected that bond yields would start creeping back up again after the Fed’s hawkish ‘one dot plot’ meeting yesterday. Instead yields fell, as the latest producer prices echoed the softness in the CPI read before the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it feels like price pressures, after a hot start to the year, are starting to cool a bit. So, does that mean the Fed’s predictions of just one rate cut this year are already out of date, just one day later? There’s also a discussion about share, currency and bond movements in Europe, the take-outs from yesterday’s Australian labour market data and what to expect from the Bank of Japan today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA mixed set of numbers overnight. The UK’s employment numbers showed wage pressures remain, whilst the NAB business survey also demonstrated inflation stickiness. NAB’s Ray Attrill says wages are a lagging indicator, and you can’t jump to conclusions that any of these numbers will change the central banks’ current trajectory. The path of cuts expected by the Fed becomes clearer with the release of their dot plot tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, bond yields fell overnight, helped by a positive auction result, and shares have been helped by Apple announcing the new AI iPhone. Economies and households might be struggling but we’ll always get excited by a new gadget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fed and what it’s done to market expectations There will be a lot of focus on the FOMC meeting this week, with the dot plot telling us when the Fed thinks we’ll see rate cuts. Whilst the ECB has been working hard to reel back expectations for rate cuts in Europe, President Macron has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by calling a snap election in France, in response to a lurch right in the weekend European Parliamentary elections. It’s not going to be a dull week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They continue to rise, despite repeated efforts by governments over the years to bring them under control. How much of it is down to supply and what can the government do to increase it? Infrastructure building is part of the solution, says Mookhey. But that costs money and, if the NSW government increases spending couldn’t it add to the inflation problem? Is that something he worries about? In this half hour discussion Phil talks to the Treasurer about how he balances government spending against the drive to build the foundations for future growth, whilst facing the challenges of a less egalitarian society and a hefty state debt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they would have carried through if it hadn’t been so clearly signalled beforehand. Now the focus is on the US labour market and what it means for the Fed. The ADP jobs number came in soft earlier in the week and the jobless claims number rose last night, with a softer read is expected tonight. Just as important ifs the question of wages. Q1 labour costs were downgraded yesterday, so will the fall carry through to the May number tonight? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.