NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 2nd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPerhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarket pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday13th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last month the ECB’s Ollie Rehn warned of the prospect of negative growth if a re-elected President Trump goes heavy on tariffs. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives his take on the ECB’s dilemma. We also look at US PPI and jobless claims overnight, and the rising government deficit. Plus, the impact of Hurricane Francine and what to expect from China’s activity data over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABKamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline rate came down for the fifth month in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it hasn’t changed the pricing for cuts by year end, it might just push back a 50bp cut further than next week. The ECB is expected to cut rates today, whilst the BoE will be balancing up higher job numbers this week, with another flat GDP read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make next week’s forecasts and dot plot from the Fed particularly interesting. We shouldn’t expect too much of a reaction to the US CPI numbers today and, unless there’s an overwhelming winner in the TV debate today, it’s probably too early to resume the Trump trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session largely devoid of data releases. There’s a bit more today with the latest employment data for the UK, numbers that could definitely influence the direction of the Bank of England next week. Otherwise, markets wait for US CPI and the big debate, both more than a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downturn in employment, will these numbers raise the expectations that the cut next week will be a big one. Not yet says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, even though there has been a notable change in language from the Fed. Friday also saw a rise in demand for housing loans in Australia – adding to the RBA’s argument that there’s no need to move quickly to cutting rates. The week ahead includes US CPI numbers and an interest rate decision from the ECB. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th September 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in government policy is needed. Their focus has been on developing new, higher income sectors, such as EV manufacture. That makes perfect sense. But there’s no support on the demand side of the economy, which is languishing under low confidence levels, less spending and a shrinking money supply. All that can be turned around, but that takes a change in thinking from Beijing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidify pricing for a 25bp cut, but anything weaker would push expectations towards 50bp. It’ll be interesting to see the take of two prominent Fed speakers – Williams and Waller - a couple of hours after the event. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the need to keep rates high to fight inflation, arguing that inflation does more damage than higher rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABShares continue to push lower along with bond yields as markets continue to be concerned about the US jobs market. The JOLTs numbers overnight show the least number of jobs available since April 2021. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are vacillating between expected a 25bp and a 50bpcut from the Fed this month and the overnight numbers pushed slightly towards the stronger cut. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP growth data yesterday showed a slowdown in consumption, but the assumption is this will pick up as real income increases, helped along by tax cuts. And the Bank of Canada cut rates for a third time, with more to follow, amidst talk that inflation might fall too far. Ahead of payrolls on Friday we get ADP jobs numbers today and the weekly jobless claims. Expect markets to react! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been some sharp defensive market moves overnight. In currency markets safe havens have done well, whilst shares are well down, the VIX index has risen and bonds have rallied. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why all this nervousness all of a sudden? The only significant data release has been the US Manufacturing ISM which admittedly, did include rising prices and falls in new orders. Was that what spooked the markets, or is it more a fear of what’s to come, with payrolls at the end of the week? Before that, JOLTs and the Bank of Canada tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were subdued again on Monday with the US on holiday. Today they are back, in time for the ISM manufacturing read. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the employment component of the report will get the most focus, as the first of several labour market indicators ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. He also talks us through yesterday’s Australian business indicators and what they could mean for GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year. Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outcome of the US election. The rhetoric from Fed speakers has been around a more gradual approach to rate cuts.  It’s also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s just like the Oscars for central bankers, without the awards, the glamour or the popular appeal. But, for all the speeches and panel discussions, will anything be said that’s not already known or assumed? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will happen in September. That’s added to the weakness in the US dollar, and helped equities recover.  They also look at the price of oil, which Sally says is reaching a point where it represents better value for investors. Global PMIs are the focus, along with th weekly jobless claims. A downward revision to the non-farm payrolls overnight was quite marked, but Sally explains why markets didn’t react toit as much as you might expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat.   Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCentral bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, given the focus on data in Fed decision making and there’s much that’s new in the intervening days. Still, markets are optimistic, evidenced by seven days of consecutive growth in the S&P share index up to Friday. The Riksbank could announce a supersized cut this week and a softer Canadian CPI print could see the Bank of Canada heading the same way.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspend on infrastructure projects seem to be one of the major concerns.But there’s no shortage of buyers according to Ken Crompton. Ken is senior fixed income strategist at NAB and a regular on The Morning Call. He says, ironically, greater debt will be attractive to overseas investors who might previously have been put off by the limited availability of Australian state debt.The issue going forward is not how much debt is being carried, but how effectively it’s being managed. Massive project overspends are part of the problem and interest payments are becoming an increasing proportion of state governments’ expenditure.Phil asks whether green bonds could restore some balance and attract even more foreign buyers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which reduces the impetus for a faster path of cuts by the Fed. Rodrigo also discusses the UK’s GDP read, today’s retail numbers there, and the swag of activity data from China yesterday. Plus, what to make of yesterday's Australian employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone’s guess where the RBNZ was heading, but we expected a cut on the advice of the BNZ and that’s what we saw. And NAB’s Gavin Friend proudly conveys the positive vibes from Britain, where inflation came in softer than expected, with the hope of a strong GDP growth number later today. If markets weren’t moved by US CPI, will the jobless claims repeat the influence they had this time last week, coupled with the latest retail sales numbers and a couple of regional manufacturing reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRemember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples.NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia.There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up. Although trade retraced its steps a little as the session marched on, with shares losing about half their gains at the US close. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we can expect volatility to be around for a while yet. Meanwhile, the RBA showed little concern for the risks of an economic slowdown, sending a clear message not to expect rate cuts this year and how they had given serious consideration to a rate hike this week. It’s a quieter session today, but that doesn’t man it won’t be just as volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particularly for Japan, where the Yen rose sharply and shares fell quickly. They talk about where is the Fed now on its path of cuts for the rest of the year, and whether markets overplayed the response to the weaker than expected jobs data. Does any of this have any influence over what the RBA does next, assuming they keep rates on hold today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.