NAB Morning Call

Friday 13th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from the ECB, accompanied by lacklustre growth forecasts for the next few years. Today, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter is speaking at a lunch in Adelaide, with a Q&A session where the media will undoubtedly ask about the fall in unemployment and how that impacts their rate cut trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities pushed higher today as US CPI provided no surprises, or any reason for the fed to deviate from their expected rate cut next week. The Bank of Canada managed a 50bp rate cut yesterday, but it’s likely that cuts will be less frequent and smaller now, as they try to find the neutral rate. The Swiss National Bank, managing an economy that suffered very little from the blight of inflation, could well engineer a 50bp cut today as well. Meanwhile, NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the ECB, who are expected to cut again today, could move into stimulatory territory next year. Locally, all eyes will be on Australia’s employment data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectation that a cut probably won’t happen till May. Still, the Aussie and NZ dollars both took a hit yesterday and are still well down this morning. The US dollar, meanwhile, has been boosted by a sharp rise in small business sentiment in the latest NFIB survey. It’s clearly a Trump bounce. Will his delivery match expectations? And the second dove of Christmas? Well, presumably the Bank of Canada. You can’t get more dovish than a 50bp rate cut, which is what’s expected tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBeijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expected till later in the week. The response was most pronounced in Chinese equities, but oil is also higher and so is the Australia and NZ dollars.  Today the RBA is likely to announce that rates won’t budge, but the detail will come from the press conference that follows. The NAB Business Survey is also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw pricing increase for a 50bpcut by the Bank of Canada this week. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls also increased slightly expectations for a 25bp cut by the Fed next week. US CPI numbers are out middle of the week, but Fed speakers won’t be able to comment with the pre-meeting lockdown in place. The Aussie dollar was the worst performer of the major currencies last week, in part because of Aussie GDP numbers, but also because of global geopolitical uncertainty. There’s even more of that now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the unknown implications from of the power vacuum it creates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners  before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US releases non-farm payrolls data later today, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if anything is going to shift expectations for a cut by the Fed this month it will be the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile words from Jerome Powell, that the economy was doing better than expected, can be added to the list of reasons for a pause in the new year. A new PM for France hasn’t been decided yet but will be in the next few days. The turmoil just adds to the European woes, with more lacklustre data over the last 24 hour. And OPEC+, as expected, has pushed back the increase in production and the length of the ramp in those increases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturned by parliament, but placing a question mark over the political life of the President. France has it’s no-confidence vote today, but European uncertainty seems to be priced in. In the US markets paid more attention to the Fed’s Christopher Waller than the rise in job openings and quits. Tonight, Jerome Powell could seal-the-deal as far, as markets are concerned, for a December rate cut. Locally, Australian GDP is the key number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWill Marine Le Penne push all the way to bring down the Barnier government in France? She said on Monday she would support a n confidence vote in the government but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, that would force a more constrained default budget, offering none of what her National Party has been fighting for.  Markets are responding to the possibility of a French government collapse this week. Elsewhere, US ISM’s overnight showed the continued strength in the US economy, raising questions about why the need to rush into cuts. Markets are expecting that if there is a rate cut this month, it’ll almost certainly be followed by a pause. Plus, what can we take out from Australian data yesterday, including stronger retail sales. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the rising Yen in the third quarter of this year, but Harry Ishihara says they are back, just a little more cautious this time. Harry is a macro strategist for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. He talks to Phil about the importance of Japanese retail investors, the continued confidence in Japan’s future, with strong inward investment, and the challenges posed by the new Trump administration. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading economies, relative to the expected nominal neutral rate. And the decision on how much and when will be made by a new group next year, as the board of the RBA splits in two, with one responsible purely for monetary policy decisions. Inflation in Germany has slowed a little, but probably not enough for the ECB to make a 50bp cut. Europe continues to be in a world of worry, particularly France, where 10-year yields momentarily fell below Greek yields for the first time ever. But good news for Americans, whose Thanksgiving dinner will have been a bit cheaper this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNo big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday highlighted the difference between US exceptionalism and European pessimism. NAB's Ray Attrill explains how PMIs were higher than expected in America, lower than anticipated for the EU. Phil asks how much of the difference is down to anticipated impacts of Trump’s tariff agenda? With political unrest there seems no easy way for Europe to dig itself out of the malaise, short of reading Mario Draghi’s growth proposals. They also talk about the moves in market expectations for rate cuts, for the US, UK and the ECB, as well as for the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment.  Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk through the latest US market action, as well as yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey, both of which showed an uptick in sentiment. Today’s big number is US CPI, but can it really give us an idea of the direction of travel when so much depends on Trump’s policies early next year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday11th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPolls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA.  Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities.  Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation.  The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 31st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSomething for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down.  Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly, Australia’s quarterly CPI read is released this morning. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether it’ll have much impact on the timing of cuts from the RBA. Then there’s the tech earnings - Alphabet today, Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, Apple the day after.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been another session of a rising US dollar, yields climbing a little and falling equities. Nab’S Ken Crompton says there have been some weak earnings results that are adding to cautions in the share market. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp, as expected, hence there wasn’t a great deal of market reaction. The question is, will the ECB follow suit? They are below their inflation target, but Christine Lagarde tried to set a note of caution to the markets during her talk in Washington. Global PMIs are out today, but no big changes are expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing. Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday18th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.