NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 4th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUkraine is behind a world of difference between US and European markets today. European leaders are resigned to the need to spend more to defend Ukraine and Eastern Europe, pushing bond yields higher and equities also rising sharply, led by European defence stocks. In the US stocks are sharply down, led by the tech sector, with bond yields also falling. The ISM manufacturing index fell much more than expected, with concerns about tariff uncertainty, but rising prices also showing in the data. NAB’s Skye Masters wonders whether markets have fully responded to the price data, which could be a warning sign for further inflation against a slowing economy. Today, Australia’s focus will be on retail sales, and the extent to which we could be impacted by a new agricultural tariff just announced by President Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brokered, at least between Zelensky and Trump. So. the dream has been kept alive. The other news was the signs of softness in the US economy, evidenced by lower spending, a massive increase the trade deficit and a complete turnaround in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. But, as NAB’S Tapas Strickland explains, a lot of this could be driven by pre-tariff behaviour, particularly for the import of machinery earlier than usual. There are concerns, though, that the economy might be slowing more than expected, which has nudged rate cut expectations slightly higher. Supposedly tariffs on Mexico and Canada kick off today, but we look at one way it might be avoided or at least delayed again. Plus, why this is a busy week for Australian data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th February 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The consequences of President Trump’s policies are being felt far and wide. The US now has a transactional based approach, even with its allies on areas such as defence which were considered shared values. So, what are the repercussions for Australia? Phil talks to Dr John Kunkel, senor economics adviser at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.   He suggests that, whilst some of the approaches are questionable, Australia should continue to  engage and, more than most, is well placed to take advantage of US growth. And if Australia has to spend more, for example, on defence, it is simply a reflection on how ill-prepared we have been in the past. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made some more sharp moves on tariffs. The date for Mexico and Canada is now back to the middle of next week, and a further 10 percent is to be imposed on China at the same time. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend about the market reaction and how much of this will actually come to fruition. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been to the White House, but it seems Ukraine was off the agenda ahead of a ‘big deal’ supposedly being signed with Zelenskyy tomorrow. There’s also discussion on US PCE numbers and Australian capex. All very interesting, but clearly the focus is on which tariffs happen where and when (and by how much). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has his first cabinet meeting and announced delays on the introduction of tariffs for Mexico and Canada (now April 2nd) and revealed how much Europe will be paying (25%) although he was a bit nonspecific on some of the detail. Nab’S Ray Attrill says the US Houe of Reps has also passed the budget, which includes big spending cuts, but tax cuts see the deficit expanding. It did impact bond yields a little, but there’s not been much market reaction to the latest tariff talk. Locally, CPI came in a little weaker than expected, helped by a continued fall in housing costs which could help bring down the next quarterly CPI result and keep the RVBA on track for a May cut Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis morning the Aussie dollar is down whilst safe haven currencies have risen, as markets start to assess the risk of US tariffs. A lot of f the moves in the last 24 hours relate to Trump’s comments that Canada and Mexico are due to see their 25% import from 3rd March. Steel tariffs are then scheduled to follow on the 22nd, then broader reciprocal tariffs from April. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Alcoa’s CEO has warned that 100kUS industry jobs could be at risk from tariffs on steel and aluminium. So, again, the question remains, is it bravado, given China’s 10% is the only tariff imposed so far?Australia’s monthly CPI is out today, although it has a heavy goods bias, so the read won’t be particularly accurate. This time tomorrow (after the US close) NVIDIA reports their earnings results. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a bit of buying the dip, says Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, on today’s podcast. The S&P tested 6,000 before rising sharply back and finishing well up on the day. Markets seem to be largely ignoring a spate of softer data, to which we can add the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, which showed a sharp rise in business uncertainty.Germany’s Chancellor in waiting, Fredriech Merz has indicated he wants to move quickly to increase Germany’s defence spending, ahead of the new government, as Europe continues to scramble to forge its own path in the future for Ukraine, and the region’s defence strategy.New Zealand provides the best news of the week so far. Retail sales are well up, signalling that the economy could be on the road to recovery. Whilst there’s corporate earnings this week, and a sprinkling of data today, the focus will be on peace talks, with Macron in Washington right now to give the European perspective and avoid a deal that’s too favourable for Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriedrich Merz is likely to be the new Chancellor in Germany, but the exit polls show his CDU/CSU alliance will need to negotiate with other parties to form government and stave off the influence of the far right AfD. NAB’s Rodrigo says that could take some time. Meanwhile, a string of less optimistic data releases for the US. Friday’s Services PMI was a big downside surprise, falling into contractionary territory. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey also recorded a big fall, whilst there was a uptick in inflation expectations. And there’s a move down in US shares. Rodrigo wonders whether this could all encourage Present Trump to move faster on tariffs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st February 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Germans will head to the polls on Friday. It seems highly likely that the centre-right CDU/CSU will gather the most votes, but over the last few months the right win populist AfD have been closing the gap. Dr Simon Toubeau, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Nottingham University says it’ll be the CDU picking coalition partners in the centre and on the left, with the AfD left out in the cold. But how long will it take to arrive at a new workable government at a time when Europe is in discussions about increasing defence spending to protect Ukraine? How can Germany spend more on defence without undoing it’s self-inflicted debt-break? And where will the government stand on the idea of Eurobonds?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s not all good news from the US. Although Walmart reported strong profit growth yesterday the outlook is less certain, and there are indicators that their customer base is a section of US society that is suffering. The dollar is weaker today and shares, generally are lower. Nonetheless, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says support for President Trump remains strong and markets did respond to a comment that a new deal with China was “possible”.Locally, there were no surprises in the latest Australian employment data yesterday. Unemployment did tick higher, but job numbers also increased, some of which can be explained by seasonality factors.  He senses Michelle Bullock’s appearance at the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics could be a little politically charged, as the next election nears. And politics dominates the agenda in Europe, with Germany’s federal election on Sunday. How this could influence Europe’s plans for a more unified approach to defence and energy is a key question, looked at in the Weekend Edition out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets reacted strongly to comments from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel who questioned whether they have already gone as far as they need to. She wonders whether the policy rate is restrictive anymore. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market reaction to that, and other central bank news over the last 24 hours. The FOMC minutes suggest slower moves by the Fed, rhe RBNZ seem set to reduce the size of cuts from hereon in, and UK inflation ticked higher than expected, which won’t see the BoE moving any faster. Today the RBA (and markets) will be focused on Australia’s unemployment rate. Skye said expectations are within a very tight range,from4 to 4.1%, so anything outside that could prompt a reaction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA cut rates yesterday, but is the first one in this cycle also the last one for a little while? Governor Michele Bullock said successive cuts wasn’t the lay-down misère that markets had been expecting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the decision, the forecasts and the commentary. There’s also discussion about UK employment, Canadian inflation and today’s RBNZ decision. Plus, the latest on Europe, where the idea of a more cohesive approach to defence seems to be gaining traction, whilst exploratory talks between the US and Russia provided nothing to get excited about. Nobody in the room looked happy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe whole European defence issue is becoming very complicated. Phil makes sense of it all with NAB’s Tapas Strickland on the day that US and Russian delegations meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a cease fire deal, without Ukraine present. Worried about their ongoing reliance on the US, EU leaders (and the UK) met to discuss future defence spending, perhaps supported by Eurobonds, hitting existing bond prices and pushing European defence stocks higher. In other news, President Xi met with tech leaders, OPEC+ could be delaying production increases, Japan’s GDP growth is higher than Bank of Japan forecasts and the RBA is likely to cut rates today but NAB says it’s not as certain as markets suggest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President  returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions.There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse.Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced that his reciprocal tariffs could start as soon as April. The surprise has been that he is not just looking at the topline balance of trade. He considers a VAT imposed on American goods as an impost that needs to be countered. That could be bad news for the EU, the UK, Australia and other countries who have favoured indirect taxation higher income tax. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll be bad news from Europe, where shares rallied today on the hope that peace-deal for Ukraine will see energy costs come down. Meanwhile, US retail sales are out later, will this add to the watering down of American exceptionalism that we’ve seen this year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed should lower interest rates to go hand in hand with tariffs, adding, “lets Rock and Roll, America!!!” It hasn’t unnerved Jerome Powell who was giving his testimony the House Economics Committee. His case for moving cautiously was evidenced by US inflation data which ticked unexpectedly higher hitting the dollar and US equities. JBWere’s Sally Auld says today is another day where markets have reversed their enthusiasm late last year for US exceptionalism. It was a strong day for the Euro and European equities, though, thanks to a positive phone call between Trump and Putin and hopes that the end is in sight for the Ukraine war. But, obviously, way too early to assume too much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration is pushing ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium. Australia still hopes it will be exempt, but there are no guarantees and, in any case, NAB’s Taylor Nugent argues there will be second-order impacts as the tariffs hit China. The EU meanwhile has promised swift retaliation, with the various trade ministers meeting today to map out their approach. Curiously, European equities are doing somewhat better than the US. The US dollar has also weakened, despite the President’s promise that the tariffs will make America rich again. The NAB Business Survey showed a slight rise in confidence, as business conditions softened. The latest small business survey in the US also back tracked a little. Today the main focus, apart from tariff news, is the latest setoff US CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTariffs could be back, with Donald Trump warning of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US. That would hit Mexico and Canada particularly hard, just as they thought they were off the hook (for now at least). But NAB’s Gavin Friend says there hasn’t been much more news on this since the President made the announcement on Sair Force One on Sunday. There’s some discussion about the three different classes of tariffs Trump could deploy and whether regions like Europe could be in the firing line. Gavin suggests a string representation of the new US administration at events in Europe this week could be part of a fact-finding mission to guide policy. Meanwhile, markets are positively sanguine, as they wait the next chapter in Trump’s trade plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday China’s retaliatory measures against the US take effect and it seems unlikely that the event will pass without comment and threats from the US President. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Trump might also elaborate on his plans for other regions, such as the EU. Meanwhile jobs numbers from the US on Friday has pushed back expectations around the timing of cuts by the Fed, reinforced by a rise in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. Aside from tariff news it’s a relatively quiet week, although it’ll be interested to see how Jerome Powell faces two days of questions from parliamentarians this week, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st Janaury 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Last year was a stellar year for growth. Kylie Willment, chief investment officer at Mercer, says they provided a 14 percent return for their superfunds in2024. She highlights a number of opportunities for this year. including growth in private markets. But how will she weather the uncertainty of a Trump administration, where radical trade policies can be implemented quickly? Will Mercer be shying away from investments in areas likely to attract tariffs, like Europe for example? And is AI a technology that will continue to dominate? Do you invest more in it, or diversity away from it? Kylie says we can ‘t expect to see the same level of growth this year, but is she willing to have a stab in the dark and predict the sort of returns we could see?ase note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farms payrolls data is released later today in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through some of this week’s other jobs-related data ahead of this key release. Meanwhile, good and bad news from the UK. The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp.Two members of the board wanted to go further. At the same time the bank cut its growth forecast and expects inflation to rise, extending the journey to their 2 percent target. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US President veered away from talking about trade today and there seems to have been little market response to his thoughts on the Middle East. Instead, the focus is on the Fed and the labour market. The ADP Employment Report showed a surprising rise in new jobs, but it doesn’t follow that it’ll be reflected in non-farm payrolls on Friday. It rarely is. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out that the latest ISM Services index has US growth at a similar rate to Germany. There have been a few Fed speakers out over the last 24 hours, and NAB’s Gavin Friend reflects on their musings, particularly in relation to potential tariffs. The immediate focus now is on the Bank of England, expected to cut rates tonight. Australia’s trade numbers are also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded favourably to the news that tariffs have not gone ahead against Mexico and Canada although there is still a chance that there will be measures taken in relation to both countries strong balance of trade. It's likely if that happens that the EU will also be embroiled in that potential trade war. Hence markets have been positive on the latest news but there is still evidently some caution around what happens next. It means there is an unclear path forward for inflation and monetary policy which NAB’s Skye Masters says explains why there has been very little response in bond markets to all the latest tariff news. There’s also a focus now on U.S. jobs with JOLTs showing a sharp fall in job openings,then the ADP numbers out tonight ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs Donald Trump’s bark worse than his bite? At the last moment President Trump has stalled tariffs on Mexico for a month to give them time to negotiate a deal. As yet, no similar reprieve for Canada but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, it has moderated the reaction, particularly in equities and FX markets. “Time to reread The Art of the Deal,” says Ray. Does this mean future proclamations are less solid? China, meanwhile, seems more conciliatory in its response, with the Wall Street Journal suggesting they want to return to a deal made in 2020 in which they promised to buy $200billion in US goods. At the time the President called it the “greatest deal ever made”. Will that be enough to pacify him this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNow tariffs are real, well, they will be tomorrow, with 25% imposed by the US on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China, do we need to rethink expectations for global growth, inflation and monetary policy? Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how the evaluate their monetary policy approach in light of these changes. He also discusses the economic impacts on either side of thew US border.  Tariffs aside, it’s a busy week with Australian retails sales today and USD payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st Janaury 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the high price of housing is a function of supply and demand. Supply just isn’t keeping up with the growth in the population. But is that the only reason?Phil presents some alternative theories to Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies. The availability of cheap credit, for example. Or government subsidies like the first-home buyer’s scheme.Peter argues these have all had little impact on long term prices, and it really does get down to supply and demand. He provides compelling evidence from home and overseas. Why this imbalance? NIMBYism? Perhaps the government's focus should be ondispelling the belief that more people mean worse local services. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB has brought forward the timing of the next RBA cut - now expected in February.   Ken explains why the bank has changed its tune. There’s also talk about the response to yesterday’s Fed meeting and tech earnings, why gold is so strong and why the Yen has been the biggest currency mover this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says there’s a lot more uncertainty beyond domestic fundamentals, US trade policy being a significant part of that. The Fed, for example, removed the statement from last time about continued disinflationary progress. It’s been a significant session, with the Fed followed by earnings from big tech players, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today.  Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it is a full-on assault on the concept of American exceptionalism led by AI and tech. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, President Trump has to respond, given the support he has been receiving from tech billionaires in the run up to the election, and since. The market response has beena move to bonds, and a rise in safe heaven currencies, like the Yen.  It provides a lively start to a week that includes a number of tech earning’s results (and calls), alongside the fed and ECB meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th January 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay.Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStrickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th January 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has -  is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of more than one cut from the Fed this year. Bond yields have fallen markedly on both sides of the Atlantic. Today Australian’s employment data will be the key area of focus, particularly after the surprise fall in the unemployment rate last time. Will today’s data lead the RBA to conclude the labour market is too tight, or will they adjust their view of where the non-inflationary rate is? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the share market has repeatedly hit new highs, driven by Trump, tech and the AI revolution. So, what does 2025 have in store?The entire NAB Morning Call team - Sally, Skye, Ray, Rodrigo, Gavin, Tapas, Taylor and Ken - join Phil to crystal ball gaze on 2025. Will Trump push ahead with his tariff threat? What will that mean for international trade? Will China manage to find the ways and means to stimulate its domestic economy and, it not, what’s the impact on the CNY and the Aussie dollar? Could the Aussie fall below 60 US cents next year?They also discuss the path of central banks next year. Speculation has been rife this year about who will cut when and by how far. There’s no clear agreement on the neutral rate that each bank is striving for. Does that mean we’ll see smaller movement in bond market.A myriad of questions tackled in this special 40-minute episode, the final Morning Call of 2024. We’re back on January 13th, by the way. Usual time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent.Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were surprised overnight by the increased in UK wages. Alongside the weakness in European data lately, the yield spread between the UK and Germany is now at its highest level since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Other data was less surprising. US retail sales rose, but as much as many had anticipated. Canada’s inflation fell. Aussie consumer confidence was down a little, but not by much and after two months of solid growth. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the day’s news and looks ahead to the Fed meeting. What could surprise the markets this time tomorrow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS growth continues to lead the way. The latest PMIs showed services growth for Europe and the UK, but not as much as the US. In all cases, though, there’s a fall in the manufacturing PMI. The US strength helped push equities higher - with new highs for the NASDAQ and S&P - and strengthened the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. The data doesn’t stop flowing, even though it’s only a week till Christmas. UK employment data today might do little to influence the Bank of England this week, but if wages growth remains high it’ll support their reticence to cut too quickly. Australian consumer confidence is out today as well. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will have a significant impact on the psyche of businesses and consumers.In his first appearance on The Morning Call the NAB boss talks about housing affordability, productivity and how NAB will stand up against its competitors in the banking sector. He gives his views on where Australia will stand in five years’ time, the opportunities we need to engage with, and what’s holding the country back.In many cases he shares his observations of Australia in relation to Canada, a country he knows well. When it comes to productivity and housing, he thinks we can learn a few things. But he admits, the coffee is a lot better here.Join Phil talking to Andrew Irvine in his first at-length interview since taking the role. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.