NAB Morning Call

Friday 29th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly and sustainably? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted an open letter to the Fed’s Lisa Cook saying she was removed from her position, effectively immediately. Legal proceedings will almost certainly follow, particularly ss she has not yet been charged with any crime, but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses on today’s podcast, markets have taken it in their stride, apart from a mild steepening in the yield curve.Aside from that it’s been a quiet session. US consumer confidence data showed continued rising concerns over jobs, but not enough to impact markets, with equities back on the rise today. It’s another quiet session ahead, with Australian CPI the main local interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe initial excitement over a seemingly dovish Jerome Powell on Friday has subsided at the start of the week. Bond yields are rising, and equities are falling. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Powel was really quite hawkish in his tone, with a weak jobs report or higher inflation (or both) likely to dampen expectations around the number of cuts this year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is suing Apple and OpenAI, the Trump administration is threatening sanctions on Europe over their digital services taxes, and there’s a vote of no confidence in the French government. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFed chair Jerome Powell surprise markets on Friday when his speech at Jackson Hole had a decided dovish tilt to it. Bond markets reacted but, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, it didn’t move pricing too much for a September cut. The question is whether more will follow, particularly if the US President manages to oust Lisa Cook and get one of his sympathisers in there. If that forces a faster pace of cuts Ray believes markets will become concerned about inflation becoming unanchored. For now, though, equity markets are happy, particularly the Russell2000 which soared 3.9 percent on Friday.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.UIS trade policy has been turbulent, to put it mildly, since Liberation Day in April. Tariffs have moved up and down, some geographic, others sectoral. The reasons have fluctuated, from  stopping fentanyl, to trade imbalance, to political concerns. The benefits have been argued as protecting jobs, brining industries back home to raising revenue.Dmitry Grozoubinski runs Explain Trade from Geneva, training government officials on complex trade negotiations. He has been involved in  many, having represented Australia at the WTO from 2014 to 2018. His latest book is ‘Why Politicians Lie About Trade’. He joins Phil to talk about this new trade environment, where deals take weeks not years. How should countries be negotiating in this new regime? How long will the current state of flux last? And is a high tariff trade environment the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities closed in the red again today, with losses more broad-based than earlier in the week. In part it’s a response to Walmart’s results, which showed increased revenue but a cut in earnings, suggesting they were losing margin, perhaps because of tariff impacts. NAB’s Taylor Nugent returns to the Morning Call to give his take on overnight market moves and the latest PMI numbers for Europe and the US. He says pricing for a September cut has reduced slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Remember there’s always pressure on the Fed chair to say something new and meaningful at this event. Last year it was the dovish pivot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech stocks lost ground again overnight, for no immediately apparent reason, unless it’s still down to comments earlier in the week from OpenAI’s Sam Altman that some people are going to get their fingers burned. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through that, and all the other market moves and overnight news, including the Fed’s hawkish minutes and the RBNZ’s dovish cut. And President Trump’s out to get Lisa Cook fired from the Fed board over allegations of mortgage fraud, so can get another of his people in there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill says the RBNZ is expected to cut rates today, even as an upswing inflation is expected in their revised forecasts. One central bank that might not cut at all for the remainder of the year is the Bank of England, with fresh CPI data out later expected to support that case. US equities took a hit, driven by tech stocks. NVIIDA lost ground, in part because their hopes of shipping a new chip to China has been stalled by Scott Bessent’s comments that any new products will need to apply for a licence. President Trump’s decree that goods can be shipped to China as long as the government gets a 15%cut, that deal obviously has conditions attached. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHaving met with Zelensky and Putin separately, President Trump is now aiming for a three-way meeting to try and reach peace in Eastern Europe. The odds are still quite low, though, because it is unlikely Ukraine and Europe will want to surrender territory as part of the process. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says market moves have been somewhat constrained, as we wait for the start of Jackson Hole. There are question marks around whether central banks are cutting too early, with worrying signs of inflation persisting. That’s particularly the case for the UK where yields have been rising noticeably, even beyond the Truss budget experiment in some cases. At home the government’s economic roundtable kicks off at Government House in Caberra, with Michelle Bullock talking first thing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday18th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail sales remain resilient, but the same can’t be said for China. But the worry from Friday in the US is that inflation expectations are ticking higher. Meanwhile Japan’s GDP was firmer than anticipated, supporting the case for a BoJ hike, but when? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through the end of the week data, the repercussion s of the Trump Putin meeting and to look at the week ahead, including the Jackson Hole Symposium. Incidentally, it was a week out from Jacksom Hole that we launched the Morning Call in 2016 so this is, more or less, our ninth birthday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The Japanese economy woke from years of stagnation to an inflationary environment that gave businesses the opportunity to raise prices and for workers to demand more money. It provided a growth opportunity that had been missing from the economy, now reflected in the growth in the value of equities and a rising number of M&As.You’d be forgiven for thinking that enthusiasm would disappear as the country faced unprecedented tariffs from their biggest export partner. Yet the toned-down tariff deal this month, which has still not been written into a formal agreement, has seen the Nikkei reach new highs and M&As are still being signed.This week Harry Ishihara, an independent macro strategist based in Tokyo, returns to the Weekend Edition to give his views on the Japanese economy now, how companies are working their way round tariffs, the practicality of the $550billion investment that the US is expecting and what it all means for the Bank of Japan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. Phil suggests there are three signs that tariffs are having an impact. First, producer prices were up more sharply than expected in the US. Second, the UK trade deficit fell sharply. And European industrial production fell too. They also look ahead to Japan’s GDP, retail sales for the US and China, pricing data from New Zealand, the US government’s plan for a stake in Intel and the atmosphere ahead of the Trump Putin meeting this time tomorrow.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities are rising, and not just in the US. In fact, the MSCI World Equities Index hit a record high overnight. But  bonds are the story today, says NAB’ s Gavin Friend, with 10year Treasury yields down 5 basis points. Markets have got a cut from the Fed fully priced in for September, but Scott Bessent said in an interview he’d like to see a 50bp cut at the next meeting. His boss, meanwhile, spoke out for 300bp of cuts or more.Phil and Gavin also talk about yesterday’s Australian wages data and look ahead to today’s employment data. Plus, UK’s GDP, expected to be very slow with the potential to tip into negative territory for Q2. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have looked at the latest inflation data from the US, assumed companies are largely swallowing the cost of import tariffs, which removes the excuse for the Fed to hold off cutting rates in September. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are close to fully pricing a cut. The US dollar is weaker from the news but continued to fall as resident Trump once again criticised Jerome Powell for being too late to cut and threatened action to have him removed.Phil and Ken also talk about yesterday’s RBA decision, and the NAB business survey which showed a slight increase in business confidence, but a fall in conditions. Wage pressures continue to blight Blighty in yesterday’s labour market data, with Australia’s (significantly lower) wage growth data out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been very little market movement despite some surprising news. First, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on exports from NVIDIA and AMD for AI chips headed to China. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a surprising move that a restriction supposedly on national security grounds has been foregone in exchange for a government revenue stream. Secondly, the 90-day truce on China’s tariffs, due to finish today, has been given another 90 days. And concerns continue about what will happen at the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday, President Zelensky says the Russian President is buying time and he is now amassing more troops on the border ready for a fresh onslaught. Today the focus will be on US inflation numbers and forecasts from the RBA after their expected rate cut today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis will be a very significant week and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it. For a start, we’ll be getting US inflation data tomorrow, to help answer the question around the impact of tariffs. One man who doesn’t believe it’s an issue is Stephen Miran, President Trump’s new man for the FOMC, but will he be in place to exert his influence at the next meeting? There’s also that meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska at the end of the week, but it seems highly unlikely it’ll lead to a lasting resolution, but it could see oil prices swayed by the geopolitical consequences. Locally there’s the RBA tomorrow and a slew of data. Get ready for an action packed week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Cath Carver is NAB’s Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking. She’s been in the role for a year but is close to clocking up ten years with the bank, with a long track record in finance and banking before that. Towards the end of this podcast Phil asks her if there’s anything she would have done differently if, years back she knew what she knows now. Her reply is, she’d have been bolder. ‘Not that we’ve been holding back,’ she says, ‘but we’ve got to be bold for our clients.’ Part of that comes from working with diverse teams and allowing people to be themselves at work. They also talk about the state of the global economy, Australia’s opportunity within it, and how to address Australia’s housing affordability issue. Something else that Cath says is looking for a bold solution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday8th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs of yesterday, US imports were hit with an average 15% tariff. Time will tell who is feeling the hurt the most, but on today’s podcast we hear about the impact on the auto industry, and German industrial production. China meanwhile saw exports rise again. On today’s podcast, as well as talking tariffs, NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the very close call on cuts from the Bank of England, revisions to NAB’s FX forecast for the Aussie dollar, and what to expect from, China’s CPI out this weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week. India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through these events, plus stronger thane expected Europpean data, and looks ahead to the Bank of England meeting, where a cut is expected. The question is, how much by? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview overnight. He’s already warned India that they face substantial extra tariffs over their purchases of Russian oil, now he is warning of tariffs on microchips and pharmaceuticals  (ultimately rising to 250%!), kicking off within the next week.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHas Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NZ Super Fund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for payouts, so they have the luxury of a longer-term view. He also says their Total Portfolio Approach is part of their success and explains to Phil how that works.But does success in the past guarantee success in the future? How is Brad and the team at NZ Super Fund navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s America, the promises of new technologies and the role of Europe in the world order? And how important is New Zealand itself to their investment mix? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The other big news today is non-farm payrolls tonight, and in earnings Amazon beat revenue forecasts put posted a weaker outlook for Q3, whilst Apple gave a healthier set of figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday31st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf anything, the Fed was sounding slightly hawkish at today’s meeting, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, erven though two dissenters voted for a rate cut. The fear and uncertainty around the inflationary impacts of tariffs is part of the problem, and markets are now seeing a September cut as more or less each way bet. A cut in the range of copper products that will be tariffed from tomorrow drove a sharp fall in copper prices today, but a reminder from the President that tomorrow is deadline today and there will be no extensions (except for those already agreed of course). Meanwhile, strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft after the US close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns about the labour market. And the Treasury has said their Q3 borrowing requirement is an eye watering $1 trillion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy. As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much higher with the prospect of secondary tariffs on Russian oil looming, after President Trump gave Putin 10-to 12 days to sort out a peace deal for Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a trade deal with the EU on Sunday, that sees a 15% tariff on most goods, cars included. Aluminium and steel remain at 50%. In exchange, according to Bloomberg, Europe will not levy any tariffs and will invest an extra $600bn in the US and spend $750bn on US energy. The deadline for a China deal also seems to have been pushed back 90 days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the likely market reaction today, with equities already elevated on Friday from earnings results and some significant earnings results in the week ahead. Also on Friday the US President indicated that it would be too problematic to fire Jerome Powell, but will he still hold that opinion when the Fed holds rates again this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Rod Sims, chair of the think tank The Super Power Institute, joins Phil to talk about Australia’s green iron opportunity. He says we have all the ingredients – the raw materials and the environment – to produce green iron, rather than shipping iron ore and coking coal overseas for carbon-intensive processing. But he admits in the short-term Australian produced green iron will be a more expensive proposition for markets like China and, in the absence of global carbon pricing, the government will need to step in with subsidies. The long-term opportunity, though, will make it all worthwhile. The Institute's own figures suggest green iron could generate $386 billion annually in exports by 2060, compared to around $120 billion now for iron ore. That requires a strategy and deep pockets from the government. Phil asks, are they on board with this? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump is stepping up the pressure on Jerome Powell as he ‘drops by’ the Fed, before heading off to the UK for the weekend. Markets have been a little more concerned about PMIs and central banks, though. The ECB kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, Christine Lagarde was hawkish in the press conference. Phil asks if he could have seen the last rate cut in this cycle. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the cautious approach of the RBA at a lunch in Sydney yesterday. As far as PMIs are concerned, the US did better than Europe, with the UK the clear loser. Today UK retail sales will be of interest, along with durable goods orders in the US. Plus, of course, earnings and tariff news.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan has a deal, even if the details right now seem a little sketchy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through an arrangement that sees Japan’s exports taxed at 15%, a welcome reduction for the country’s automakers. There are murmurs that the EU will reach a similar deal. Ironically the speed at which the deal was reached in Japan could see pressure mounting on PM Shigeru Ishiba to step down sooner rather than later. Also today why Alphabet shares are well down in after hours trade whilst Tesla has risen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech earnings will be a focus of the week, with Tesla, IBM and Alphabet a day away now. But markets have responded favourably to earnings results so far, including a strong result from Coca Cola. But, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out in today’s podcast, it was a different story for GM, who took a hit on their income to absorb the cost of tariffs on imported cars and parts. Meanwhile a new trade deal with the Philippines provided further evidence that any country wil be lucky to get away with the original Liberation Day 10 percent baseline. Tapas also picks the bones on the latest RBA minutes, which highlighted how the central bank is treading cautiously because it is uncertain of the terminal rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose to new highs in this session, buoyed by positive earnings results, but pulled back, perhaps on the reality check that Liberation Day Mark 2 is a little over a week away, The European Commission has said they will be meeting early next week to discuss counter measures if a deal isn’t reached with the US. Scott Bessent has also suggested secondary tariffs will be more seriously applied to a deal with China. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest trade developments, plus the follow-through from Japan’s election result, yesterday’s New Zealand CPI and what central bankers might be saying today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has lost his majority, according to exit polls on Sunday. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was already priced into markets, with 30-year bond yields reaching record highs last week, but it comes at a bad time as Japan tries to negotiate a trade deal with the US, with the 1st August deadline looming. A deal might be reached with the EU this week or next, but President Trump has indicated he is inclined to a base tariff of 15 – 20%, even with a deal. A low level of data means the focus this week will be on tariff news, and corporate earnings, including Tesla and Alphabet in the middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the global economy. The uncertainty will almost certainly slow down US investment, the exception being the tech sector where the FOMO effect will keep companies developing. Phil reckons there will be a haves and have nots divide, in households and in the corporate space. But what about the rest of the world? How will China and Europe adapt? And can we expect a permanent shift in global trade patterns, or will we revert to norm once President Trump has moved on? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Gavin Friend, there was a lot to like. The threat of looming tariffs seems to be largely ignored, as though investors don’t think they will happen. It was a less rosy picture in Australia and the UK -in both cases unemployment rose more than expected. Gavin talks through whether these numbers will have any impact on central bank decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday17th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent describes, markets swung back and forth on the unfolding story but finished with the stock market regaining ground at the close. Also on the podcast, rising inflation in the UK and Australian employment data today alongside some key US metrics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at the end of the month from the Fed now looks less likely. Ken also talks to Phil about China’s mixed activity data, the optimism of analysts in Europe’s ZEW survey, yesterday’s Aussie consumer confidence number and what we can glean from US corporate earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where trade is switching to from the US. Also today, banks earnings results n the US and the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, around this time tomorrow, trying to regain confidence in the UK as she promises to be ruthless on cutting red tape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOver the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome Powell from his role at the Fed, building a legal case on the cost overrun of renovations!The focus this week will be on US CPI and Australian labour market data,plus earnings with banks reporting from tomorrow and Netflix later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s tariff policy, but markets have taken it in their stride, with US equities rising today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are also questions about whether tariffs will be that damaging to the US economy after all. Evidence suggests exporters are swallowing some of their margins to keep prices low for US consumers. There’s also more Fed members suggesting the inflationary impacts could be limited. Phil and Ray also discuss the latest US jobs data  and today’s BNZ Manufacturing PMIs and UK GDP, both due out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! .  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine there won’t be volatility in markets this week. There wasn’t much response to the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, however. Markets have taken it in their stride. There’s likely to be some response to the weekend’s news that OPEC+ are upping production from next month. Ray suggests it’s a move to lower prices and gain market share. Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ might be a little less viable. Phil and Ray also look at Friday’s Australian Household Spending report and look ahead to this week’s rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for. And, right now, that’s showing a clear victory for the Republicans.Then what happens? If President Trump manages to maintain control, who follows him into the White House? Will his policies be perpetuated, or will US politics swing back to the centre, or even the far left? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders.  Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week. Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.