NAB Morning Call

Thursday 11th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U.S., policy rates are still falling — though the debate is how far they’ll go. Even Kevin Hassett, tipped as Trump’s likely pick for the Fed, is cautioning against too many cuts next year. And don’t forget today’s NAB business survey: it could reveal fresh insights on capacity utilization, the very metric that rattled the RBA last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the RBA and the Fed this week. We know what to expect- the Fed is likely to cut rates, the RBA its likely to be on hold. We’re also expecting hawkish commentary, particularly from the RBA. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact on bond yields, with Aussies10 year yields up 1.37% over the last week. Bond yields in Japan have continued to rise on the expectation of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, and in Canada after a sharp fall in the unemployment rate on Friday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFor all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities are on the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thing apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a while ago now, so more up to date records, like the Fed’s Beige Book tonight, will be scrutinised more than normal perhaps. Markets also responded to further speculation that Kevin Hassett will become the Fed chair next year, which could see interest rates pushed lower. Today Australia’s first monthly CPI report is out, the RBNZ makes a decision, and the UK budget is bound to upset someone and create some market volatility, whatever they decide. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkable sensitivity, which has not been reflected in bonds or currencies. The Aussie hasn’t seen its usual bounce as US sentiment picks up. Delayed (and out of date) data today includes US retail sales and PPIs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had already climbed on Friday as the Fed’s John Williams talked up the chance of a rate cut in December. It’s a relatively quiet week, with the US off for Thanksgiving. Locally the RBNZ meets and Australian CPI is released. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Nothing seems to be quite hitting the spot. Our podcast is too early today to bring you the NVIDIA earnings results, which have left equities in no man’s land this week. We did get a chance to glimpse the latest Fed minutes before we hit the stop button though.The other news this morning is that the November non-farm payrolls number will be delayed, meaning there will be no other report beyond September’s delayed release tonight, ahead of the December meeting. The data is just too late, and the Fed continues to fly blind. And oil prices have fallen over fears there’s too much oil.  A resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict, which is again making headlines, could add to that downward pressure.   NAB’s Gavin Friend in London joins Phil to talk through all of this, plus UK inflation and Australian wages data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment. We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s  budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday14th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties. Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run  average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSigns of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund. $15 billion was set aside for investment in businesses in growth areas, that will boost the economy, create jobs and drive innovation. Their new CEO is former NAB executive David Gall, who joins Phil to talk through the work of the Fund. What sorts of companies do they work with? How do they measure success? And, importantly, how do they ensure that they are not simply crowding out investment that could be made by commercial investors? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNormally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEurope’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.Meanwhile, markets are in a buoyant mood. Equities are climbing, treasuries are selling off, and sentiment is turning risk-on.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThose who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem said they weren’t looking to cut soon; the real question was how long they will hold rates for.Meanwhile, equities took a hit last night, not helped by the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adding to concerns about debt fuelled growth by the Mag Seven. And the revision to European and US PMIs should be worth watching, because there were some sharp moves in the provisional data that might be washed out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that mean the RBA’s next move could be up? That’s a question Phil puts to Sally and one that Michele Bullock is likely to face during the press conference this afternoon. We also look at the latest PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers for the US, showing the wide divide in the two-speed economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of Friday’s news, including Euro area inflation, Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, Canada’s GDP and another output increase from OPEC+. Plus, a look ahead to this week’s central banks, including the RBA, BoE,, Norges bank and Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for Australia, where headline GDP has been driven by strong population growth which has helped to lift business confidence. But there are similarities - inflation risks, rising unemployment and no clear answer to stalled productivity. How much of the difference between the two economies can be blamed on the comparative approach by each central bank, and how much room do they have to manoeuvre if things turn south? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s Tokyo CPI might indicate whether they made the right call. There was a mixed picture from yesterday’s tech earnings (it’s not good news all the time), with Apple and Amazon reporting shortly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher. At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut before May, and that may not happen if unemployment rises too quickly.The BoJ and ECB meet today, and shortly earnings for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on the day that NVIDIA became a $5 trillion company! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes their call overnight tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is out this week and, to add to the excitement, earnings results for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Are you ready? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?James Carouso, who has spent 25 years with the US Department of State, suggests this deal is different. It’s key to the US aim of reducing its reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. For Australia it provides an opportunity to support onshore processing.James is a senior foreign policy adviser for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and he’s spent a good few years in Canberra as a member of the team negotiating the free trade deal with Australia, ratified in 2005. He clearly thinks Australia should embrace the opportunity and this new partnership could provide the leverage to ask for a reduction in steel and aluminium tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of the long-awaited CPI numbers, held back because of the government shutdown. There are concerns that it might not be as reliable as previous data. It’s certainly less timely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBefore you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia. Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week? And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.