NAB Morning Call

Thursday 2nd April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment as a five-day extension to President Trump’s ultimatum fails to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran officially rejecting US peace proposals. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to analyse the resulting market volatility, including a rise in Brent crude up to $108, The pair discusses the "fear gauge" (VIX) currently sitting below 30 and what this indicates about market expectations for a potentially prolonged conflict and discuss why central banks like the Norges Bank are already pivoting toward a more hawkish stance as global inflation forecasts are revised upward. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe path to de-escalation in the Middle East remains stalled as Tehran rejects the latest US peace proposal, issuing counter-demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations. Phil talks with NAB’s Taylor Nugent on the market’s reaction to this diplomatic deadlock, noting that while oil prices saw a temporary dip, the prospect of a protracted war continues to drive bond yields higher. There were hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who warned that the central bank "will not be paralyzed by hesitation" in responding to inflationary shocks. Domestically, the focus is on the latest Australian CPI data for February, which showed headline inflation easing slightly to 3.7% and trimmed mean inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These numbers will likely be eclipsed by the massive surge in fuel prices expected to hit the March print. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East enter a dangerous new phase as the US deploys 3,000 troops and Iran launches fresh attacks across the region, sending Brent crude climbing toward $104 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore how central banks are moving away from "looking through" temporary shocks toward bracing for the secondary, inflationary impacts of a protracted war. They analyze the sharp rise in bond yields and the sobering reality reflected in the latest global PMI data, which shows surging input prices and weakening consumer confidence in Europe and the US. The discussion also covers Australia’s upcoming CPI data and the finalization of the Australia-EU trade deal, somewhat overshadowed by the escalating conflict. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point as a high-stakes deadline looms for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of its power plants by the US. Phil talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to analyse a volatile Friday session where markets—already reeling from earlier energy infrastructure attacks—saw Brent crude surge past $112 a barrel and bond yields spike globally. Crucially, these major moves occurred ahead of the weekend's direct ultimatum, meaning investors have yet to fully price in the prospect of a significant escalation. Australian CPI is out this week, along with global PMIs. The focus today, though, is on whether President Trump will carry through with his threats. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRetaliatory attacks on Qatari gas facilities have sent energy prices soaring, with Brent crude momentarily almost return to $120 a barrel and European benchmark gas prices jumping as much as 30%. In this environment of heightened inflation risk, Phil talks with NAB’s Ray Attrill to examine the sharp rise in global bond yields, specifically a 40-basis-point spike in UK 2-year gilts following the Bank of England’s surprisingly hawkish stance. Ray also provides a deep dive into the latest Australian labour force survey, where a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% was offset by a surge in participation. Highlighting the resilience of the market, Ray notes, "Although the unemployment rate rose... employment growth was strong", keeping the labour market tighter than the RBA’s target for full employment and likely deterring any shift away from its restrictive policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe war in the Middle East continues to drive sentiment, with oil pushing back above $100 and bond yields rising. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil this morning to discuss how weak US data on Friday, including a sharp fall in GDP. This compounds the issue, leaving central banks balancing inflstion fears with concerns about demand destruction. Slowing economic growth is not confined to the US – the UK also saw weak GDP numbers on Friday, whilst unemployment rose in Canada. None of this is likely to prevent a rate rise from the RBA tomorrow, but other central banks meeting this week, of which there are many, are likelyt to wait and see how things unfold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this episode of The Morning Call, Stewart Upson, Co-President of Infrastructure and Global Head of Strategy at Brookfield, discusses the massive infrastructure shift driven by the rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence. Upson frames AI as a "flywheel" for technological development, highlighting a staggering $7 trillion investment opportunity over the next decade as the industry moves from basic data centers to fully integrated "data factories". He emphasizes that energy supply remains the primary bottleneck for growth, explaining how Brookfield leverages its expertise in renewable power and nuclear energy to de-risk these high-capital projects. From the rise of sovereign AI and personal AI agents to the long-term potential of embodied AI and robotics, Upson provides a comprehensive look at how infrastructure investors are building the foundation for a more productive, AI-driven global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Gavin Friend joins Phil today as heightened rhetoric over Iran pushes oil back over $100 for a spell. They unpack a significant climb in bond yields across the US, UK, and Europe, reflecting a market that is quickly pricing out hope for near-term rate cuts amidst the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the IEA warns of an 8 million barrel per day drop in global supply for March, Gavin breaks down why US Navy escorts might be the only hope for reopening the Straits of Hormuz by month's end. The conversation also pivots to the UK's precarious fiscal position under Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of new GDP data and a surprisingly sharp narrowing of the US trade deficit that could shift Q1 growth forecasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the intensifying tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the threat of naval mines have effectively halted all shipping traffic. Despite a massive release of 400 million barrels of oil from IEA reserves, supply fears have pushed Brent crude toward $92 a barrel, with Iran warning the west should prepare for $200 oil. So, how is this energy shock complicating the global inflation outlook, specifically forcing a shift in NAB’s forecast to include consecutive RBA rate hikes in March and May to combat mounting domestic capacity constraints. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says there’s been a wave of optimism in global markets, driven by President Trump’s comments on the potential end of the Israel-Iran conflict. It was also an historic day for corporate bond issuance in the US. The tide could be turning now though, as oil prices start to rise again this morning. Phil and Skye also examine the RBA’s hawkish stance following Andrew Hauser’s recent comments, and the latest results from the NAB Business Survey, which shows easing confidence amidst persistent capacity constraints. Finally, they look at China’s surprisingly strong trade data and the softening demand seen in the latest US Treasury bond auctions. US CPI tonight would normally be significant to markets, but it’s likely to be overtaken by events in the Middle East. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Sally Auld discuss the roller coaster ride of oil prices, which took a breather after G7 nations hinted at tapping into their strategic reserves. While this news offered a bit of temporary relief to the markets, it’s a short-term fix and markets will be driven by how long the conflict drags on for, and how long supply is blocked through the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the inflationary impacts for Australia, the surprising resilience of the Aussie dollar as a commodity currency, and what shifting global trends mean for central banks heading into their next round of policy meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe global economy is facing a volatile "double whammy" as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices toward the $100 mark whilst the US labour market shows unexpected signs of cooling. Friday's US jobs data shocked markets with a loss of 92,000 jobs against expectations of growth, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil today to discuss how, as Israel/US and Iran engage in retaliatory strikes on critical oil and desalination infrastructure, central banks are left in a precarious position: grappling with rising inflationary pressures from energy costs while weighing the need for rate cuts to support weakening domestic economies. With US inflation data and major bond auctions on the horizon, and the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations serving as a backdrop, the "invisible hand" of the market appears increasingly gripped by geopolitical uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Celebrate International Women’s Day (this Sunday) with a deep dive into the senior ranks of Australian business as Phil talks with Anastasia Clarke, CFO of property group Charter Hall. Despite recent reports suggesting a decline in female finance chiefs, Anastasia offers a refreshing and candid perspective on her rise to the top, discussing the "grit and determination" required to navigate an ASX-listed career and the pivotal male mentorship that supported her along the way. From the challenges of balancing a high-stakes career with young children to the strategic shift of moving women into revenue-focused roles, this episode explores why diversity of thought isn't just a social goal—it's a driver of Charter Hall’s leap to $92 billion in funds under management. Whether you're interested in the future of the commercial property market or the "40:40:20" approach to executive leadership, this conversation is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the modern blueprint for corporate success. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFinancial markets took a sharp risk-off turn overnight as escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran dominated investor sentiment and pushed oil prices significantly higher. NAB’s Skye Masters breaks down the resulting surge in bond yields across Europe and the US, noting that central banks are pivoting their focus back to stubborn inflation risks. The conversation covers the shifting expectations for rate cuts, the impact of volatile energy supplies on the Eurozone, and a preview of tonight’s critical US non-farm payrolls report. Closer to home, they look at the softening in Australian household spending and China’s newly adjusted growth targets following the People’s Congress. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the global market's resilience amidst escalating Middle East tensions, noting gains in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and European stocks like the DAX. They dive into the volatility of the Asian markets, specifically South Korea’s KOSPI, which saw a 14% decline following an AI-driven frenzy. Key economic indicators from the US, including strong ISM Services data and a significant rise in export orders, are balanced against a widening gap with PMI figures. They also analyse the contrasting PMI reports from China, Australia's steady 2.6% GDP growth and softening household consumption, and look ahead to today’s timely monthly update on that consumption number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWar escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss the market turmoil following Operation Epic Fury, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring, with European gas prices surging more than 50% following a drone attack on Qatari production facilities. So, is this a short-term spike or a long-term inflationary threat? A massive "about-turn" in bond markets suggests a longer story, hence a shift in central bank rate-cut expectations. With President Trump facing low domestic approval for the move, the key question remains: will this conflict be resolved in weeks, or are we settling into a period of prolonged stagflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to examine the market reaction to the weekend’s dramatic military strikes on Tehran. With the Straits of Hormuz effectively stalled by soaring insurance costs and geopolitical uncertainty, we analyse the immediate pressure on oil and gold alongside. Beyond the Middle East there’s the brewing "mini-Lehman" moment in the UK as mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions collapses amid fraud allegations, leaving major players like Barclays exposed. From the PBOC’s strategic move to curb the Renminbi's rise to a massive week of data—including Australian Q4 GDP, the US Payrolls report, and China’s National People’s Congress—we provide the roadmap for a week where risk is suddenly everywhere. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.