NAB Morning Call

Thursday 3rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible for the US dollar reaching a multi-year low today given the deficit implications that the bill provides. Rodrigo also discusses with Phil the latest US manufacturing ISM, what's being said at Sintra, New Zealand's latest business opinion survey and looks ahead to today's Australian retail sales numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too. President Trump has said he sees no reason to extend the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and those countries that have not negotiated in good faith will have their rates set by him next week.Scott Bessent suggested the government had no need to ramp up long term bond sales, even if the Big Beautiful Bill is likely to result in greater bond issuance. European CPI, the Caixin numbers from China and JOLTs for the US will be a focus today, along with a couple of high-powered panels at Sintra. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of focus on the US this week. The Big Beautiful Bill could reach it’s finish line before Independence Day on Friday. There are reports of progress towards trade deals with the likes of the India and the EU, even if Canada’s deal talks stalled over US objections to their digital services tax. And US payroll numbers are out on Thursday (a day early this time). There’s also the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal. It’s a lot to take in. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks us through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil looks into the challenge of an ageing population. The most recent edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook devoted a chapter to what it calls the ‘Silver Economy’. We tend to see the declining ratio of taxpaying adults as a negative for the economy - fewer people working for the upkeep of a growing number of oldies. Jessica Geraghty, senior associate for economic prosperity and democracy at the Grattan Institute, says we don’t have to look too far for inspiration on how to tackle the issue. Beyond changes to tax policies, we should also be looking to places like Singapore and Japan, where the focus is on longer healthier lives. Our cognitive abilities are also surviving g further into old age. So, is a significant part of the solution to see older people continuing to work longer and could the rewards from this work reduce the health demands that older people place on the system. If that is the plan, is government policy reflecting it now?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar has hit a new multi-year low. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about some of the factors driving the US currency down further. Part of it could be the speculation that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, in the hope that he can guide markets early. There’s also increasing evidence of foreign investors ditching long end government and corporate bonds and taking their money elsewhere. Soft US data isn’t helping including a sizeable revision to Q1 GDP, driven down by lower consumer spending. Today Tokyo’s CPI, China’s industrial profits, and US CPE data will also be of interest. And get ready for a week of tax and trade talk next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt won’t come as a complete surprise that NATO members agreed to up their defence spending to 5 percent on Wednesday. The bigger surprise might be if they keep that commitment once President Trump is no longer in office. We saw a bigger response locally to the softer than expected Australian CPI number for May. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about the market response and expectations for RBA cuts from now on. They also talk through the surprising drop in US new home sales, Japan’s leading index, Powell’s testimony to the Senate Committee, and what to look out for today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are back down near multi-year lows, so is the US dollar, whilst equities are bouncing higher and getting close to all-time highs. Infact that happened for several well-known tech stocks. NAB’s Sally Auld says it reflects an assumption that the worst of the Iran-Israel conflict is over, although a New York Times report this morning suggests the US bombing only put Iran’s nuclear program back a few months. Meanwhile America saw a collection of softer data prints, which pushed yields lower, but didn’t distract equity markets. Today, Australian CPI for May will be the focus. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAn Iranian attack on US air bases in Qatar and Iraq actually forced oil prices lower. Much lower. Why? Well, even before it was confirmed by President Trump, it appears the attacks were orchestrated. That was confirmed when the President posted as much on social media, adding that ‘Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same’. That message helped push equities higher towards the US close.The other influence today has been comments from the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, suggesting a July rate cut made sense but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent outlines, there are a few obstacles to come before that happens.It’s a busy day for data releases today, as well as the NATO meeting in the Hague. Will they commit to defence spending at 5% of GDP by 2035? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou think it’d be a choppy start for markets today, following the weekend bombing of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil why the response might be a little tamer than you'd expect. He explains how many were aware that a strike was imminent based on readily available Google data. They also discuss the worrying rise in Japanese inflation, the slowdown in UK and Canadian retail sales, and coming up, the contrast between US and European PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by each construction worker has fallen by about 50 percent since the 1970s. James Brook, an economist at CEDA, worked on a recent report ‘Size Matters: Why Construction Productivity is So Weak’. The report highlights that, as well as the difficulty in sourcing materials, and the rising bureaucracy around planning regulations, the predominance of very small businesses in the construction sector is a barrier to the adoption of more productive techniques. James takes Phil through their findings in this weekend’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept rates on hold, whilst the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank both cut rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this was the first cut in this cycle for the Norges Bank. He also discusses with Phil Australia’s employment data from yesterday and looks ahead to UK retail sales and Japan’s national CPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one central bank that did surprise was the Riksbank. A cut was priced in, and was delivered, but the market was surprised at the prosect of another cut.Tapas also talks about the perceived challenges to the US dollar as the global reserve, with the PBoC Head talking about a new world currency order, where no one currency dominates. The main number today is the Australian employment read, and three central banks meet, including the Bank of England. Everyone today though will be keeping one eye focused on the news - will the US be drawn into the Iraq-Iran war?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taking a hit.NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are unnerved by the President’s comments as parts of the US military complex converge on the Middle East. There’s also some discussion on further weak economic data from the US a day out from the Fed meeting and it’s revised dots plot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note overnight suggests central banks have been pulling out of the US dollar since March. Rodrigo also talks through the latest activity data from China, looks ahead to US retail sales today and prepares us for a week that could see a lot of movement in the US Big Beautiful Bill. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSince Israel fired bombs into Iran on Friday there has been bombardment on both sides. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about how the US dollar has resumed its safe haven status, with the Aussie losing ground as risk-off sentiment rises. Phil asks whether this pattern could worsen as the war seems set for more escalation rather than a rapid resolution. It will be the focus of the G7 summit over the next few days, perhaps pushing tariff talks down the order of things, even though Trump’s individual offers are set to be dished out within the next week. Six major central banks meet this week, including the Fed, with the revision of dot-plots getting the most attention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Data from CreditorWatch shows that almost one in ten hospitality businesses in Australia shut down in the 12 months to April. Whilst the growth in insolvencies has levelled off this year, it doesn’t mean the worst is over. Michael Fingland, CEO of Brisbane-based turnaround specialists Vantage Performance, fears that the cost of living is starting to bite for businesses reliant on discretionary spend. So, what should companies be doing when income is falling and costs are rising? Michael offers some sage advice and explains how turnaround specialists tackle the issue - even for companies that are trading insolvent.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABProducer prices in the US, just like CPI, seem to have had very little impact from tariffs so far. But jobless claims are rising.  NAB’s ray Attrill says the continuing claims are similar to recession levels. All the more reason for the Fed to cut rates - but not the 2% that President Trump is now looking for. Meanwhile the President has reminded everyone that he is serious about tariffs, with envelopes ready to send to trading partners with their own bespoke tariff. That helped push the US dollar down to a two-year low. Trade and tariffs will undoubtedly be talked about at the G7 summit that kicks off this weekend in Alberta, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a statement on what was talked about in Geneva, and tariffs remain in place, at 55% on China’s exports. No surprise then, that equity markets are far from excited about it. More significant was the softer US CPI print in May. The impacts of tariffs are not making a big stamp on prices, yet, but again the market response was restrained, because its still too early to tell. PPI numbers later today might tell a different story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK has grabbed a bit of the focus overnight. All eyes are on the US-China trade talks in London. Equities have been helped by the positive sentiment coming from US trade secretary Howard Lutnick, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether the US Commerce Secretary has a tendency to talk things up. Some of the biggest market moves though, relate to the UK’s employment detail was softer than expected, with a sharp rise in unemployment claims. Phil and Rodrigo also talk about the NAB Business Survey yesterday and look ahead to US CPI today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets had been preparing for a softer jobs print in the US on Friday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about a result that was better than expected, but there are still plenty of signs of weakness. Perhaps not enough, though, to support President Trump’s call for a one percent rate cut to add rocket fuel to the economy. Today the focus is on trade talks between  the US and China in London. It comes as data over the weekend shows just how much trade form China to  the US fell last month.  Locally, focus with be on the NAB business survey and Westpac consumer confidence numbers, and later this week US CPI is the number to watch.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Should we be worried about the long-term effects of the Trump presidency? The OECD this week downgraded global growth forecasts because of the uncertainty brought about by his tariff regime. It’s also seeing investors diluting their exposure to US assets. But is this Sell-America trade offset by the TACO trade which assumes Trump will always chicken-out.This week Phil talks to the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the Trump-factor, particularly in relation to the dollar. Key requirements of a reserve currency are safety and stability - have we just lost both of those things?  In which case, could another currency take-over, or some sort of basket of currencies, like the IMF SDR? Martin argues the second choice for a reserve currency is a long way behind the US dollar. Also, despite his extraordinary behaviour, financial markets are behaving as though everything is relatively normal. Is the end result that the US President just expedites trends that were happening anyway, driving us to a more fragmented global financial system. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of love lost between President Xi and President Trump, but a 90 minute phone call might be the start of a journey of reconciliation. But US equity markets seem to be responding more to the end of the Trump-Musk bromance, as threats being made to Tesla’s subsidies and government contracts, helping to pull the Telsa share price down more than 14  percent. The focus today, of course, is on non-farm payrolls. There’s some nervousness around what these numbers will reveal, particularly after the ADP numbers, and the higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks with Phil about all of this, plus the ECB and Australia’s trade and consumption data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, and the ADP jobs data overnight showing the lowest number of new hires since the pandemic. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the weaker yields in the US but not in Europe shows where the risks are as the US waits for payrolls on Friday. Phil and Gavin also discuss Australian GDP, the latest Bank of Canada meeting and today’s data releases, which includes the Caixin Services PMI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets got off to a bad start when the OECD released a downgrade to its growth forecasts but NAB’s Skye Masters says there was a change in mood when the JOLTs data was released. An expected fall in job openings didn’t materialise. There was further good news in Europe, with inflation falling faster than expected, but that’s not going to have any impact on the ECB’s rate cut priced-in for this week. China’s Caixin PMI showed a slowdown in manufacturing in May, not reflected in the official numbers released at the weekend. This morning the ABS releases Australia’s Q2 GDP. Yesterday NAB revised down its pick from 0.5% to 0.2%, quite a bit below where the RBA and most of the market is sitting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs on Wednesday. On Truth Social this morning he declared that he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pittsburgh steel. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says all this uncertainty will slow the economy, evidenced by weakness in the May ISM data for the US. Tonight’s JOLTs data will be particularly interesting. So far employers have been holding off with new hires, whilst employees are reluctant to switch jobs; all driven by uncertainty. The question is, as time goes on, which way does the labour market go? And will we get any hint of it today?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the announcement by President Trump of a doubling in steel tariffs from Wednesday happened after the US market close. OPEC+ also announced an increase in production over the week. So, the week kicks off with more uncertainty. It finishes with the latest US jobs data, will be watching keenly by those fearing a slowdown could be driving the country towards a recession. Meanwhile, there was a slab of data released on Friday, which Phil and Taylr work their way through on today’s Morning Call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have we seen the worst of the US-China tariff dispute? Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro seems to think so. Talking from Montreal on this weekend’s podcast, Yan explains why China needs to achieve its five percent growth target and Trump will have to deal with the economic consequences of his policies. That doesn’t mean there’s a winner and a loser. China can accommodate some of Trump’s economic demands, says Yan. The upshot is, after much volatility, we’ll arrive at a place that’s better than many investors currently fear. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Appeals Cout has determined that Trump’s tariffs can stay, for now, but it remains a battle the President will have to fight. Kit seems markets had assumed he’d find a way to impose his tariffs anyway otherwise we would have seen more significant market moves. Th emain concern within the US seems to be how much of the new tax cuts assumed a high level of tariff revenue to compensate for the deficit. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the response, along with softer US data overnight, and to look ahead to a deluge of data out today and tonight, including retail sales for Australian and Japan, housing credit and building approvals at home, the US Core PCE and personal income and spending data, along with Canada’s GDP and China’s PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US investors left for the long weekend with the sudden news of a major tariff hike on European goods just a week away. They were back at their desks on Tuesday morning with the news that that wasn’t happening - not this week anyway. The result has been a jump in US shares, coinciding with the Conference board survey also jumping back from the postponement of Liberation Day tariffs. Also today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains why we’ve seen a 19bp drop in 30 year Japanese yields. He also previews today’s CPI figures for Australia and the priced-in 25bp cut from the RBNZ today. But what next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose on Monday on the back of the news that the imposition of higher tariffs on Europe have been pushed back a month. Does that also mean the result will be lower than the threatened 50 percent? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the Trump technique might start to lose some of its impact as politicians and markets get used to the shock and awe approach. And ECB chief Christine Lagarde didn’t hold back in a speech on Monday talking about how “multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays”. Meanwhile, there’s been another small fall in the US dollar, and a rise in the CNY and the Aussie touching its highest level for the year to date. Today the US and UK return from holidays, with consumer confidence data and durable goods orders for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump on Friday said that negotiations were not moving with the EU and he would impose a 50 percent tariff on the EU from this coming weekend. We’re hearing now that EU President Ursula von der Leyen has spoken to the President and believes a good deal can be done if they have until July 9th. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market reaction on Friday to the original news was a return of the Sell America theme we saw in early April – with falling equities, rising bond yields and a falling US dollar. Much of that was the result of last week’s rising fiscal concerns, but it was compounded by the tariff news on Friday. That makes the outcome of those tariff talks the key theme of what is otherwise a relatively quiet week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We made the call to our listeners, what would you like to ask NAB CEO Andrew Irvine? This week Phil puts your questions directly to him, with topics ranging from the health of the global economy, this week’s RBA decision and NAB’s earnings results, not forgetting the perennial concern about housing affordability. Some of your questions were forthright. How do we fix the wealth gap? Why is NAB’s P/E ratio so much lower than CommBank’s? Are banks too reliant on housing loans? It was a frank discussion, that we look forward to repeating soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields rose higher still this session, before retracing their steps. Interestingly they started falling after the House passed the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, even though that is expected to add significantly to the US government deficit, which is seen as one of the reasons for the rise in bond yields in the first place.  Does this mean US bond yields could continue their upward trajectory? NAB’s a Ken Crompton says it’s not unusual to see a reassessment after the sharp response to yesterday’s weak 20-year bond auction. The PMIs for Europe and thew US didn’t carry any major surprises, but weaker than expected for Germany. Yet the German IFO showed sentiment from companies is improving. Today retail data is the focus, for New Zealand, the UK and Canada. Phil and Ken also discuss the NZ budget and Andrew Hauser’s speech last night at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was another weak bond auction in the US overnight, pushing yields ever higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there is a risk premium being applied to US bonds, from concerns over tariffs and, perhaps more significantly, rising government debt. The Big Beautiful Bill could add significantly to the government’s debt at a time when the balance of trade is deteriorating. Phil asks, should we be worried? Also today, a bigger than expected increase in UK CPI, but how much of it is down to one-off impacts? Today, the New Zealand Budget and US and European PMIs give a suggestion of which economies are taking the biggest hit from Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields fell significantly in Australia yesterday after the RBA’s rate cut. NAB’s Sally Auld says markets were divided as to what the central bank would do - some even thought they would keep rates on hold. NAB made the call for a 50bp cut, whereas ultimately it was just 25bp, but Sally says she feels somewhat vindicated because the board did discuss a larger move down.   Phil asks whether by the year end we could see a situation where the RBA has moved markedly lower, whilst the Fed, faced with persistence inflation, has to keep rates higher. Alongside Aussie bond yields, Japanese yields were the other big mover, although their yields were moving higher after a disappointing 20-year auction. It’s also a session that’s seen an end to the rally in US stocks. The S&P didn’t quite make it to a bull run. UK inflation will rise today, but mainly because April was a nasty month for bill shock from utility companies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFairly tepid moves across equities, bonds and currencies today with very little data and not much in the way of big announcements. The Deal of the Day probably goes to the UK and EU, who have agreed to less in the way of checks and bureaucracy for British food exports, in exchange for prolonged access to UK fishing waters. It also facilitates European spending with the UK Defence sector, something that might be important as nothing concrete came out the Trump-Putin phone call today.  The RBA is expected to cut between 25bp (market consensus) and 50bp (NAB’s call), whilst Fed speakers are increasingly downplaying the idea of any cuts in the US before September at the earliest. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the day’s moves and news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of talk going on right now and President Trump is at the centre of most of it. Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about a plethora of negotiations that could influence markets this week. First, the Trump call to Putin, followed by a call to Zelensky. Can he break the deadlock? There are also negotiations going on with the EU. Documents have reportedly changed hands, and JD Vance met with Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Sunday. It might  be in the nick of time, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that tariff levels will go back to April 2nd levels to those countries that haven’t negotiated with the US in good faith. And in the US, where Republicans have voted against the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, the spending committee is meeting now to plan a way through the standoff. On Friday markets reacted to the cut to Moody’s US credit ratings, although Ray says it’s really of little consequence. And locally, the focus is on the RBA tomorrow, and just how big a cut will they make? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It’s been a frantic week of deal making by the US President. Was this always part of the plan? To create a destabilising set of circumstances that whets the appetite for deals with the US? Phil asks Michael Feller whether that was the plan all along and, if so, are we over the worst of uncertainty, and should investors be planning for a renewed emphasis on global growth? Michael is chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy in Sydney, who advise firms about navigating environments just like this. He’s a former finance journalist, investment strategist and spent many years in government, as a diplomat in Singapore, as senior adviser to Malcolm Turnbull, and director of the Department of Foreigner Affairs and Trade.Phil asks him, how should investors position themselves in a world dominated with tariff talk, but also riddled with geopolitical unrest, from Israel and Iran to Russia and Ukraine, and this last week, India and Pakistan? And should we prepare for a more multipolar world? That’s something that was emerging, says Michael, well before Trump returned to the White House.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter retail sales and slower growth in produce prices has upped expectations for the speed of Fed cuts this year, pushing bond yields lower today. It’s been a curious session, with NAB’s Ray Attrill saying equities, bonds and the dollar seem to be acting independent of each other. Oil is also forging its own path, driven down by expectations that President Trump will forge a deal with Iran which could see them adding to the global supply pool sometime soon. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and why we might have been bit optimistic to expect a 50bp cut by the RBA next week. But never say never. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets were a little more restrained today, perhaps because there were no big announcements to drive the enthusiasm. Tech is the exception, that continues to move up. And deals with Japan and South Kores are close, apparently.  NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the lowering of tariffs on China has already had an impact, with container ship bookings rising sharply this week. Data out later will show us the impact the cuts had on retail sales and producer pries in the US in April. The US President is still in the Middle East, and will perhaps move to Turkey later today if Putin indicates he will show up for negotiations with Zelensky. But don’t count on it. There’s also an increasing focus on the Beautiful Bill - what form will it eventually take. The Wall Street Journal has described it as a Turkish Bazaar of ideas and there are concerns that it could add to debt without assisting with growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no denying, President Trump and his team are out to do deals and, right now, markets seem to be loving in. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through today’s market action, which has seen a significant rise in tech stocks, helped by news that restraints on the sale of NVIDIA stocks could be lifted for the UAE. The other big announcement during the President’s visit to the Middle East is a $142bndefence deal with Saudi Arabia. With all this positive sentiment, it seems investors that were underweight on US equities are quickly buying  back in to the market. The S&P is now higher than it was at the start of the year. And, as Phil discusses with Skye, the data we’ve seen over the last 24 hours – US CPI, the NFIB small business survey, NAB’s Australian Business Survey and Westpac’s consumer confidence, all came in a little better than expected. Today, aide from the next bit of Trump news, |ussie wages data is released. It’s unlikely it’ll do anything to stop a cut by the RBA next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were taken aback by the size and immediacy of tariff cuts announced Monday between China and the US. Although we did highlight it as a possibility in yesterday’s podcast. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it wasn’t just the size of the tariff cuts, down to 30% on China and 10% on the US, but also the goodwill displayed after the weekend talks. Equities have risen sharply, the dollar is stronger, and markets are pricing in more rate cuts.  The news does make upcoming data a little less relevant. We get the US inflation print today - if its higher the US administration can say the lower tariffs should fix that. Just as the UK government can respond to higher unemployment -  if it happens today -by saying they have just proposed sweeping changes to immigration rules. That’s politics. And there’s a lot of it lately.GOT A QUESTION FOR NAB’S CEO? Phil will be talking to Andrew Irvine on the Weekend Edition, a week on Friday. Ask what you like about finance and the economy, globally or locally. Orif you  want your voice heard, ask your question out loud and send in a sound file to be played on the podcast. Whichever way you want to do it, email [email protected] - don’t forget to include your name and where you are from. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury Secretary Bessent said there had been ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations with China over the weekend. Maybe the US is feeling the pressure, with stores warning of supply shortages. China, meanwhile, according to trade data on Friday, is exporting more, they’ve just switched the destination away from the US. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if China exports have a deflationary impact elsewhere (not the US), will we see more of a divergence in the approach taken by central banks? And could this be a big week for deals? With China? With other nations? And potentially positive talks over Ukraine with Putin and Zelensky supposedly set to meet face to face.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The commercial real estate (CRE) market has struggled post-COVID, with working from home and online shopping both taking a chunk out of demand for properties. But the tide is starting to turn, with investment picking up and a stronger focus on building greener premises or adapting older buildings to meet new green regulations. It’s a Herculean task, with CRE contributing 18 percent of direct carbon emissions in Australia.Nonetheless, we are winning the battle, according to Natasha Mulcahy, the Pacific region director, ESG at the global commercial real estate consulting and investment firm CBRE. And NAB is doing its part. Paul Lennard is NAB’s Executive, Business Lending Products – his team includes a sustainable finance unit which has built a growing portfolio of around $2bn in green finance over three years, including the CRE sector. Natasha and Paul join Phil this week to talk about the growth in sustainable CRE, who is driving that change and the regulations that make it impossible to ignore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have seen the positive side of the US-UK trade deal. It’s a sign that deals can be done to reduce tariffs, but NAB’s Ken Crompton wonders whether sentiment is running ahead of itself. Although there are some carves out for sectors, including steel, the UK base tariff rate remains at 10 percent. This for a country that already buys more from the US than it sells to them. For that the UK has reduced some of its tariffs and is expected to remove invisible barriers around agriculture. If anything, it could be seen as a sign that tariffs won’t move down far, even when a deal is done. Still, the US President gave another tip to buy shares because they are going to take off “like a rocket ship”. Beyond the optimism of the share market central banks are still grappling with the uncertain environment. The Bank of England vote was split three ways. The focus is on China this weekend, with trade data, CPI and PPI and the start of those trade talks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets took a hit when the Fed announced no change in interest rates, even though it was expected by just about everyone. Then shares picked up as Jerome Powell gave his press conference, in which he talked up the current state of the US economy and said they were in a good place to cope with whatever comes down the track. He was uncommitted on any future decisions, saying they will have to wait and see what impact tariffs have on employment and inflation. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through what was said. Meanwhile, China is not in wait and see mode. The PBoC cut base rates, cut lending rates further and eased bank reserve requirements. And the Bank of England is widely tipped to cut rates themselves today.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US President has made it clear there won’t be negotiations back and forth on tariffs, he’ll simply make the call. NAB’s Sally Auld says that accounts for most of the uncertainty in markets today, with big falls in equities again. The US dollar is weaker again, with the Aussie gaining some strength. The repricing in Asian markets, including the ‘violent repricing of the Taiwanese dollar’, will drag the Aussie higher in the process, says Sally. Today all eyes will be on the FOMC meeting, early tomorrow morning Australia time. It’ll be more about the words in the statement than the decision itself, which is firmly priced for a hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s much less enthusiasm in the markets today, with US equities finishing deeply in the red at session lows, finishing a nine-day winning streak. There’s no readily apparent reason, except perhaps for concerns the scope and timing of US trade deals. The Taiwanese dollar rose further today over reports that a trade deal would be based on an appreciation in their currency. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest tariff news, the latest Services ISM data for the US, as well as the declines in oil prices as OPEC+ increase supplies at a time of an expected global downturn.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.