NAB Morning Call

Monday 5th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a risk-on Friday, as the price of equities rose, and repricing of Fed rate cut expectations saw bond yields rising too.  NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are two reasons for this optimism. First, the continued hope that some sort of truce will be found in the tariff war between the US and China, and secondly the strength in the labour market demonstrated in non-farm payrolls on Friday. The cautionary note is that this report is based on jobs held just a few days after ‘Liberation Day’. Still, no rush yet for the Fed to cut rates, hence the repricing. It was the opposite story  in Australia on Friday, where a surprise plateauing of retail sales reinforces the need for a cut at the next RBA meeting, as well as raising the case for successive cuts this year.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian house prices are back on the rise, but how sustainable is this growth considering global economic uncertainty. Or will any potential external factors be more than offset by falling interest rates? Core Logic’s Eliza Owen joins Phil to discuss what’s been happening in Australia’s capital city and regional markets and where could see the most growth this year. Also, what influence will affordability have on the housing market? Could we see a situation where price growth slows when a peak in the price people will pay for rent starts to impact yields? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session heavy on news and data, largely seen as positive, particularly inequity markets although they lost some of their gains towards the US close. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says two things were driving shares higher. First, yesterday’s string earnings results for Microsoft and Meta. Secondly, the Manufacturing ISM, although down, was better  than expected. Markets have taken that as a good sign and repriced rate cut expectations from the Fed, but Rodrigo is more cautious. Data from May and June will be more representative of the impact of the Trump trade agenda. On that, tonight’s, non-farm payrolls could be very influential. The continuing jobless claims overnight could be a warning sign, heading up to a multi-year high. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to a larger than expected fall in US GDP reported this morning. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters suggests, equity markets clawed their way back in late trade. Perhaps its because the fall was largely driven by short term factors, in particular a much higher than expected level of imports, cars in particular, ahead of the imposition of tariffs. Canada saw a similar impact on their GDP read, whilst the European economy was exempt from such impacts. Yesterday’s Aussie CPI print gives no reason for the RBA to avoid a rate cut this month. They have been overly cautious on their outlook for inflation, says Skye. The focus now switches to US jobs, with non-farm payrolls tomorrow night, the weekly jobless claims tonight, and a weaker than expected growth number in the ADP figures last night. Plus the earnings or Meta and Microsoft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are in the thick of economic data today - Aussie CPI, European and US GDP, US wages and the core PCE deflator. We’ve just seen weaking confidence in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Yet equity markets continue to rise. In fact, the S&P has had its biggest six day rise since March 2022. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says some the optimism is the hope that tariffs will be wound back, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying a trade deal has been reached, but he’s not going to say who with just yet. President Trump gives his big 100-day rally in a few hours’ time. It will be a beautiful thing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were more subdued for most of the session overnight, with shares in the US down until a reversal in the last hour of trade. The hopes of a quick resolution to US-China is seeming less likely. For a start, are the two sides talking? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says President Trump claimed he had spoken to President Xi, but China denies any negotiations are taking place. Meanwhile shipments from China are well down and will be felt in retail stores in a week or so. The Dallas Fed manufacturing general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020, during COVID. UK economist Paul Krugman overnight likened it all to COVID, without a vaccine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets stayed positive through most of last week on the hope that trade deals will be done, and tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture. But Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what if deals aren’t done. A source report in the Wall Street Journal outlined the extensive topics to be covered in these deals. If solutions aren’t reached, does the US President reimpose his April 2 tariffs? He gives a big address of Tuesday, his 100th day in office, when that might be made clearer. Locally, CPI for Australia will be the key data point and will be highly influential on what the RBA does next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall another 10 percent, at least, with the Aussie returning about the 70 cent mark. Phil asks if that’s the best-case scenario; one where trade deals are agreed and tariffs minimised. What if the hefty tariffs return? Or Trump deposes Jerome Powell? Or the US heads into a recession? Whichever way you spin it, Ray says the US dollar is getting weaker and it’s not a short-term change. The weaker dollar could be around for a long time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by more than half in some cases, although there’s declaration from Trump himself, or any indication of when  this might happen. But as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, that’s not stopped markets seeing the positive side of it all. PMIs came in a little weaker than expected across Europe and the US, although manufacturing did somewhat better than services. It’s mainly second tier data today and tomorrow, and a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia is looking less likely – if it’s accepted it’s a win for Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deals getting closer with India and Japan, and how he current impasse with China is unsustainable. So, does that mean tariffs won’t bounce back up after their 90day pause? That seems to be how markets are taking it, but Sally says the sentiment could change when we start  to get real data on how badly the US economy (and others) have been impacted.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President has made no secret of his desire to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, although there’s a question of how far Presidential authority can stretch. This compounds other concerns. For example, how likely are trade agreements? It’s becoming apparent that a deal with Japan hasn’t progressed far, whilst animosity between China and the US ramping up further. Both countries are now threatening their trading partners to pick sides in the trade war. Tapas says we are now starting to see hard data showing us what’s really going on.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickland that it’s not much of a return for such a capital-intensive industry subject to so much geopolitical risk. But, John argues, if you take the long-term perspective, and look for airlines with strong, proven management that have shown they can deliver margins and cope with crises, you can still enjoy healthy dividends. When it comes to the challenges of tariffs, the manufacturers face the biggest problem, with components sourced all over the globe. There’s also the rise of China’s aircraft manufacturing that is likely to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade significantly with China. NAB’s Gavin Friend also talks through Jerome Powell’s speech and fireside chat at the Economics Club of China. He basically said, that with all the uncertainty, there’s a chance the Fed could hold back on any further cuts this year. That all depends on whether tariffs are eased. It’ll be a question the ECB will have been pondering ahead of today’s rate decision. There’s also Australian employment data to talk about. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we are still waiting to see the hard data from April. The difference in FX moves for the pound and the Euro has been interesting, with a deal with the EU seeming a long way off, with JD Vance suggesting a deal with the UK could be closer, because of Trump’s love of the royal family. Meanwhile China has reportedly stopped their airlines from buying or leasing aircraft or parts from Boeing. It’s another day of information overload, which makes it a tough call for the Bank of Canada later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps as President Trump’s weekend social media post sank in, suggesting nobody was exempt, they were just being moved to a different tariff bucket. Then, news circulated that car parts may also be exempt, pushing up the share price of auto manufacturers. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to make sense of the latest moves and to pick through the data that is still helping to guide investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queue up for meetings at the White House, more exemptions will follow, including country-specific trade deals. NAB’s Skye Masters says all of that could be good for equity markets, but the damage has already been done for bond markets, with the sell off indebt likely to continue, pushing the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at which money changes hands. This week Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, argues against that belief. The velocity of money is relatively constant, he says, but the supply of money is the major determinant of economic output, driven primarily by loans from commercial banks. Listen to his reasoning on this week’s podcast and why he thinks the RBA is doing a good job for Australia, but the US could be heading for a recession, even before Trump’s tariff adventure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the question of whether Trump will be realistic in the deals he seeks with other countries over the next 90 days. We are getting close to the end of the week with an immense amount of uncertainty, although the Aussie dollar has managed to gain ground in the midst of it all. NAB, meanwhile, has revised its outlook for the RBA, expected a more aggressive path of rate cuts. Listen in for more on that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from tomorrow. NAB’s Ken Crompton says if there was a Laffer Curve for tariffs we are well beyond the point where revenue keeps rising. But late in the session President Trump announced a 90-day delay on some of the heftier tariffs – China excepted. Elsewhere a 10% tariff will apply, and world leaders have three months to negotiate. That’s resulted in a record turnaround in US equity markets, although bond markets are a little less convinced.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don’t want to trade with China anymore, unless a deal is done. There has been more talk of potential deals. If any of them come to pass it will be an indication that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate, rather than slavishly sticking to a principal of completely balancing trade with each country. Who knows? Certainly, the optimism in the markets early on in the session quickly diminished and stock markets closed well down in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approach saw a swift reversal. When it emerged that the story was nothing but fake news and, if anything, the President was digging his heals in harder, markets didn’t immediately return to their session lows. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says part of that could be because more CEOs are speaking out against the tariffs and that could force the plans to be rolled back. But, Phil asks, does that mean market have further to go if it becomes clear that the tariffs will stick, and go beyond a temporary negotiating tool. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t found, what happens next? NAB’s Rodrig Catril says they are not forecasting a US recession just yet, although some are – like JP Morgan, for example. Jerome Powell was reasonably circumspect on Friday, saying the higher tariffs could prolong inflation w which could delay the Fed’s response to an economic downturn. Ironically, non-farm payrolls showed a US economy strengthening, but it seems the President is prepared to jeopardise short term economic stability in exchange for a significant change in the pattern of international trade. If that’s’ the case, negotiated deals this week seem unlikely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approach to trade has created uncertainty and how Australia, like other nations, will be looking for trade partners with the same attitude to free trade. And how, with less trade exposure to the US than the likes of Europe and Canada, and a rich seam of rare earth minerals, could this new trade environment could be beneficial for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nations, but on a relatively crude formula based on the value of exports to the US against the US balance of trade deficit with that country. That makes it rather problematic for countries to fix-lowering tariffs that might not exist in the first place. But could all this be good for Australia. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton, might we be one part of the world where inflation is contained, and interest rates continue their expected downward trajectory? They also talk about non-farm payrolls, because that’s happening today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, there’s more to come from President Trump, plus any retaliatory moves by other nations. Rodrigo and Phil talk about how the markets reacted in the build up to the US close. Larry Summers says the real unknown is how much damage it will do to the US economy and the difficult position it places the Fed in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary saying it was her understanding that the tariffs would be applied immediately. The truth is, nobody knows until Donald Trump says it, and even t hen it could change.Data wise we saw a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number overnight, with a surprisingly high prices paid component. The JOLTS job openings data also came in weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers, as well as reviewing the RBA decision, statement and press conference yesterday. Eurozone inflation also came down a little.Today, tariffs aside, we get Australian building approvals, and the ADP payrolls numbers for the US, ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares did regain some ground during the session, having fallen sharply after Friday’s weaker than expected US data. Oil is also higher, with the US President threatening secondary tariffs on any country buying oil from Russia. The RBA will keep rates on hold today, and Skye says it’ll be interesting to see if the governor pushes back on current market pricing for another 70bp of cuts this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation  of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pay more from their assets and super funds.   Russell Bricknell is CEO of Juniper Aged Care in Western Australia and says it provides a path for future investment, but there’s a large amount of catching up to do. Many facilities have fallen into states of disrepair as operators struggled to remain solvent. But the bigger issue, says Russell, is how future aged care homes win planning consent, and how a workforce is found to staff these new in-demand facilities: two issues that weren’t addressed in the Aged Care Taskforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride.  There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now.  UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up.  Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again.  Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations in 12 years. The enthusiasm early in the week for more caveats in the April II tariffs diminished somewhat today as president trump indicated that car tariffs would start almost immediately and that his administration was tapping existing laws to impose broader tariffs. There's more enthusiasm in Europe however where Germany's Ifo business expectations rose and there was renewed hope that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a deal to enable merchant shipping in the Black Sea to operate without being shot at. There's also discussion about yesterday's budget, today's CPI numbers and what could be a very tricky day for the UK chancellor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Sally Auld. Some of the ‘hope’ might be driven by confusion over tariffs. At a cabinet meeting today President Trump talked about auto and pharma tariffs being imposed soon, without mentioning the broader tariffs expected on April 2nd. Oil prices pushed higher as he announced tariffs on any country buying oil from Venezuela. Also, why has the Yen fallen so far today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were premature, with the US dollar manages to climb a little and equities seeing a few positive sessions. Today’s PMIs will be telling – do European purchasing managers have a more positive outlook than their American counterparts? As expected, Mark Carney announced a Canadian election over the weekend and used his speech to deliver a few harsh words against the US President, also as expected. And UK Gilt yields rose on Friday as rising government debt added to the country’s economic woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfer to equities when a bank capital’s capital falls below a tipping point. But do mum and dad investors understand the complexity of the offering and do the instruments adequately provide for their intended purpose? That’s APRA’s big concern, pointing to the Credit Suisse example where AT1 investors lost a lot of money.Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital has been critical of the APRA decision. While initially he thought AT1s were too complex an instrument and there was an elegant simplicity in choosing between stocks and bonds, his position has changed. He now worries that some of the mum and dad investors could be driven to even riskier assets.Chris is not one to hold back his opinions, which you’ll hear this week, but he also does a great job of explaining how this asset class works. Something you won’t be able to buy after next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOne of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a result. Today he looks at the market reaction to the Fed meeting, what happened at the Bank of England, and why Australian employer numbers yesterday were such a big miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast  for this year.  But the dot plot has changed very little.  NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the Fed’s statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that followed. It’s clear that the FOMC is in a wait-and-see mode in light of Trump’s policies and the next meeting will be the one to watch for. The forecasts also suggest that they see the inflationary impacts of tariffs to be transitory - something that was reinforced during the press conference. The Bank of Japan also sat on their hands, citing trade policy concerns. Next, it’s the Bank of England’s turn to do nothing. With no press conference or forecasts it’s up to you whether you stay up late for it. Before any of those, Australia’s employment data is out today, with NAB expecting a slight fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Oil is higher and gold has reached new highs again today. Phil talks to NAB’s Skye’s Masters above moves overnight, including the shift in share purchases from the USA to Europe. And Canada’s CPI rises again - a cause for concern for the Bank of Canada and one that could be echoed around the world? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’t bad when you looked a little deeper. The Empire Sate Manufacturing index showed a big dip but is also considerably volatile. Markets weren’t too excited by the press conference in China where authorities announced their special initiatives to boost domestic consumption, but it continues to be a cautious approach, although it might have helped the Aussie dollar a little, which rose more than other major currencies. The news to look out for today relates to Ukraine – Trump and Putin are talking, will they reach a ceasefire deal that Ukraine will agree to?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introduced to boost consumption. That boosted Chinese stocks on Friday. In the US the government has passed their spending bill, so the Trump administration can move forward on their plans. And the NVIDIA GTC conference kicks off today, known by some as the Woodstock of AI, with their CEO Jensen Huang outlining his vision for the future. And the OECD plays out its forecasts for global growth today as well. Plus, we’ll no doubt learn something new about what President Trump has planned.  A forward-looking start to the week, you might say. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and aluminium exports. Next month, maybe our GST charge will be used as an excuse for a 10%tariff on everything we export. In Europe through, it’s not just trade that is testing the US relationship. It’s defence as well. Trump wants EU nations to stand on their own and not rely on the US to provide half the hardware and ammunition.Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, says we are entering a different global order. So, what’s Australia’s place in this new world? Do we, for example, need to spend up big, just as Europe is doing, to defend ourselves from China. Sam says not, but we should rethink AUKUS and question why we have the US Airforce operating from our territory.What’s more, he says we should listen to finance markets, which move on news of tariffs, but tend to ignore geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party.   Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. First, tariff tensions. President Trump is threatening 200 percent tariffs on alcohol from Europe in response to the EU’s retaliatory strikes.  Secondly, data. Even though the headline PPI read for the US suggested inflation is slowing, Rodrigo says it’s a different picture when you look under the hood. Finally, the ceasefire. The language coming from Putin suggests it is extremely unlikely. Today the Rengo report on Wages data is a key release, and what it will mean for the direction of the Bank of Japan.    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country.  Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is keeping quiet and hoping for some sort of free  trade deal.  Good luck with that. NAB’s Sally Auld says Australia is sensibly avoiding an immediate response, given it constitutes a relatively small part of our total export market. But tariffs are showing signs of slowing economies. A snap survey by the Bank of Canada - who cut rates yesterday – showed households and businesses were cutting back on spending in the face of uncertainty. Repeated globally could this transmit into an economic slowdown that will see central banks ignoring short term lifts in inflation, assuming prices will fall as the economy slows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo bits of late breaking news swung markets around towards the Tuesday close in the US. First, a cease fire agreement has been reached with Ukraine in Jeddah, with the US resuming intelligence sharing in the interim. It’s got ot be agreed with Russia, but it was enough to turn US equities sharply into the green, having lost ground for most of the session. The other news was a moderation in the rhetoric between the US and Canada. Having imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported from Ontario President Trump said he would double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium. Canada’s peace  offering was to remove the electricity surcharge.NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through these latest manoeuvres and the market response, as well as examining overnight data including the JOLTs numbers and the NFIB small business survey. They also look at yesterday’s Australian data, which showed business confidence falling whilst consumer confidence rose. Today US CPI and a rate cut from the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly concerned about the direction of the US economy, as bond yields rise and equities fall sharply again. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s an overreaction happening. Surely, if the economy is seen to be struggling, the Trump administration will reverse course. Maybe, says Tapas although this time the US President seems less preoccupied with share prices and told Fox News over the weekend that, even if there was a recession, it’s all part of a transition period to something big.  This week there will be more fireworks between the US and Canada, with fighting words from Mark Carney, the new Canadian PM. Today, the NAB Business Survey is out, alongside JOLTS data and the NFIB small business survey. And tomorrow, tariffs on steel supposedly. Plus, why Phil should be getting an invite to a proposed Trump Xi summit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the Trump administration probably didn’t foresee the massive investment happening in Europe. What does that mean for the future direction of the US dollar and the Aussie, which is rising against it? Questions Phil puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a week where tariffs will again be front and centre, maybe as soon as today. They also discuss US payrolls numbers, China’s CPI and the latest from Canada.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th February 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent of board members in ASX300 companies were women, but only 14% of those companies had a female chair, and there were none in the top 20 companies on the ASX.This week Phil talks to two senior executives about how they climbed the corporate ladder and the obstacles they faced: Anna Hughes, CEO of the Australian Office of Financial Management (the funding arm of the Australian Government) and Fiona Trigona, Executive General Manager, Group Treasurer, of NBN Co. What lessons can they provide for aspiring young women with an appetite to quickly move higher in business?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing markedly higher on the back of a sharp rise in government spending. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the uncertainty of USA tariffs could also hit growth, but the experience in North America shows there’s no guarantees. They’re on, then they’re off. Meanwhile a blowout in US imports as Canadian exporters in particular sought to move goods over the border before tariffs hit.   Today the focus is on non-farm payrolls. Will they show any impacts from DOGE and which direction are wages moving now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGerman bund prices have seen the biggest single day fall since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, pushing 10 year yields up30bp.  It’s a similar story all over Europe, whilst movement in the US has been relatively tame. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it is all on the back of extra spending on defence and infrastructure in German, outside the limits of their discal brake. It’s all happening ahead of an expected cut by the ECB later on. Market moves were less pronounced all round in the US – equities have rebounded, helped later in the session as rumours of some backtracking on the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico turned to reality. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP yesterday and yesterday’s US Services ISM. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt has been an alarming 24 hours. The US has applied tariffs on Mexico and Canada, added to those already applied to China, and pulled funding for Ukraine’s war effort. Share markets have responded the world over, but not as much in the US as you might expect. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the response has been stronger in Europe, presumably on the realisation that Trump’s word should now be taken literally. The impact of a trade war -with China, Canada and Mexico all likely to retaliate, is obvious. Prices will rise and demand will fall. Markets have taken the inevitable economic slowdown as a reason for the Fed to cut more and sooner - but Ray thinks it’ll be hard to cut in such an inflationary environment. Meanwhile, the US President is forcing Europe to come together, with Germany announcing new defence spending and Europe allowing members to go beyond their fiscal limits for military spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.