NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 28th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is out this week and, to add to the excitement, earnings results for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Are you ready? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?James Carouso, who has spent 25 years with the US Department of State, suggests this deal is different. It’s key to the US aim of reducing its reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. For Australia it provides an opportunity to support onshore processing.James is a senior foreign policy adviser for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and he’s spent a good few years in Canberra as a member of the team negotiating the free trade deal with Australia, ratified in 2005. He clearly thinks Australia should embrace the opportunity and this new partnership could provide the leverage to ask for a reduction in steel and aluminium tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of the long-awaited CPI numbers, held back because of the government shutdown. There are concerns that it might not be as reliable as previous data. It’s certainly less timely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBefore you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia. Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week? And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe release of hostages and prisoners in Israel and Gaza is the good news story of the year, but markets are still more concerned about the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. Equities have bounced back, and the Aussie dollar has regained some ground, but both sides are waiting for the other side to make the first move. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the market response, and looks ahead to a day light on data, but strong on central bank speakers and corporate earnings. Can the rebound in US equities hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are simply seeing another TACO moment, in which case, will the markets settle down today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices could start to retrace a little. John’s view is that gold is being used to hedge against US dollar exposure. Does that mean as long as the uncertainty of US policies and economic outlook remains, gold will continue to do well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new management, how are markets responding to that? Michelle Bullocks testimony to the senate economics committee will be one highlight today, along with Canada’s employment data, which could determine the next move by the BoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable currency investments. The Yen, for example, is getting weaker and Europe is being hit with more weak economic data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in a row yesterday, and the NZ quarterly survey of business optimism didn’t help determine whether the RBNZ will lean to a 25bp or 50bp cut today. It’s still too close to call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre deal with AMD. It added $80 billion to the value of OpenAI and raised flags for those worried about the potential for a tech-bubble. And the US government shutdown moves into day seven. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through a session light on data and heavy on news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent. So what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was OPEC+ decision to lift production. We knew it was coming but the size of the increase is well below what many were expecting. Phil and Taylor also discuss Friday’s ISM data from the US and look ahead to a very quiet week, politics aside. And the RBNZ, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s involvement in a fraudulent loan scandal, pursuing an ESG agenda when the American President believes climate change is a scam, plus the risk of rising global debt, both private and public.Listen in for some frank discussion on The Weekend Edition.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be many more of those soon as the US President threatens to cut jobs in departments and agencies that do not support his agenda. The Australian economy looks in good shape with household spending rising, although the rate of growth has slowed. And the RBA financial stability review shows households are building up savings, with an increasing buffer for mortgage repayments. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because the US shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the ADP jobs report, the ISM manufacturing survey, Japan’s Tankan survey and European inflation numbers. Today Australia’s trade numbers and household spending data will be of most interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNot only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can we tell about the US labour market from the latest data overnight. They also talk about yesterday’s RBA statement and press conference. Did it support NAB’s case that the RBA won’t cut till May? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to today’s RBA meeting. Phil wonders whether the press conference after the rate announcement will support NAB’s position that a cut is not likely now till May. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient. Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s latest tariffs, the looming US government shutdown and a swag of data for Australia, along with tomorrow’s RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day truces, the current one due to expire in early November. What then? Phil talks to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal. He reckons the can will be kicked further down the road. |s that because the US needs China more than China needs them? Could China continue to grow if the US market dries up, particularly given the low levels of consumption in their domestic market? And what’s the role of the PBoC in all this? Monetary policy seems limited, and fiscal policy hasn't been that effective. Part of the solution is to rein in the subsidies of businesses by local authorities as part of a move against ‘involution’.Next week Phil talks to NAB CEO Andrew Irvine. This is your chance to put a question to him directly on this podcast. Whether it’s on the economy, on banking, on management or on NAB itself, send your question (written or as a sound file attachment) to [email protected]. But be quick! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNot a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For now. Meanwhile, Donald Trump didn’t hold back at the UN, giving his forthright views on immigration and the climate ‘hoax’. Today the focus is on Australian CPI. NAB’s Sally Auld, on the road in Narrabri, tells us what to look out for in that set of numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech stocks where demand is high and deals are being done to pick up the pace of AI. Today the focus will be on the PMIs for Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news. If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for Canada. There was also quite a lively Bank of Japan meeting it seems. Phil asks, with the week starting light on data will US equities continue to break records. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin provider. Phil asks whether it will; move from the finance sector to cover more B2B payments, and beyond to B2C transactions.There are clear benefits: it’s faster and cheaper than legacy systems. Drew adds that its more flexible, with the ability to program transactions. That’s useful for traders but could also apply to broader transactions where payment is made on delivery, for example?So if it’s such a golden opportunity, what are the risks? How should it be regulated? And what’s the upside potential for Australian stablecoin providers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish outlook, helped a little perhaps by a sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing index. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and the softer GDP print for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJerome Powell called today’s rate cut, and the increased dots plot for the remainder of the year, part of their risk management approach. Although some might say increasing the expectation for cuts, whilst highlighting the potential for a weaker labour market and forecasting an increase in inflation was throwing caution to the wind. Certainly, bond markets have been on a journey in the last few hours. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the decision, what was said at the press conference, and how markets have reacted. They also discuss the cut from the Bank of Canada and look ahead to today’s employment data for Australia and the Bank of England decision later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in the next 24 hours; there’s also the Bank of Canada after a softer than expected CPI read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was not a good news story, though. Sally talks Phil through the numbers, and they look ahead to a busy calendar for the next 24 hours, including US retail sales, Canadian and NZ CPI and UK unemployment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising. This week is a big one for central banks, with decisions being made in the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Two cuts and two on hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from successive high spending governments. He says it needs an IMF bailout – it doesn’t need the cash, but it needs a dose of the hard medicine that the IMF doles out. Assuming that doesn’t happen, then the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of a less independent Fed, where rates are cut to boost growth, with less concern about the return of inflation. The upshot, he reckons, is much lower rates and inflation bouncing back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for import tariffs. Obviously, we only have to wait for today for a measure of consumer CPI. China’s CPI was mixed, with a fall in the headline rate, but a 0.9% year on year lift in the core rate. Another move overnight was the Aussie dollar – in a session of limited currency moves the Aussie rose well beyond 66 US cents. Phil asks why. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlthough we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the markets, or the Fed to pay too much attention. He also talks to Phil about the collapse of the French government – again - and the positive market reaction to the resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is the key release to keep an eye out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but highlights that although unemployment is rising, the rate is edging up very slowly. Still, if we see inflation rising this week against a falling jobs market that’ll sound warning bells. Canada’s unemployment numbers on Friday were worse than the US, with job numbers falling. There’s plenty of politics at play, with Japan and France both looking for new Prime Ministers this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US job openings (JOLTs) data showed a fall in July (7.2 million down from 7.4 million in June, a number which was also revised down). This has adding to the belief that the US jobs market is getting weaker. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the findings and how it has moved tech stocks higher and driven bond yields lower. He also responds to yesterday’s Australian GDP, which came in stronger than NAB’s forecast, but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for RBA cuts. The US Services ISM will be an important number today; in particular, have new orders bounced back after last month’s sharp fall. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quiet session overnight with the US on holiday. Instead, there was a focus on Tianjin in China, where Putin, Xi and Modi all got together to talk about the new world order. Phil points out on today’s podcast that collectively these leaders oversee a third of the world’s population. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins in to discuss the latest Aussie GDP partials (more to come today). We also saw gold hit another new high – a confluence of factors could drive it even higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.