NAB Morning Call

Friday 28th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil dives into the massive infrastructure powering the global AI revolution with Luke Mackinnon, Senior Vice President of NextDC and Managing Director for Asia. As tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon pour billions into data centres, NextDC is rapidly expanding its footprint to provide the "shovels" for this digital gold rush, specifically engineering high-density "AI factories" like the KL1 facility in Kuala Lumpur and TK1 in Tokyo. Mackinnon breaks down the intense technical demands of supporting the latest GPU superclusters, the high-stakes race for power and land, and why specialized Tier 4 infrastructure is the non-negotiable backbone for the next wave of sovereign and enterprise AI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the curious response to NVIDIA’s 94% profit surge, which wasn’t enough to satisfy demanding investors, even though it beat expectations. The US continues to build up its military hardware in the Middle East as US-Iran talks in Geneva head nowhere, keeping oil prices on edge. Closer to home, they discuss the latest Aussie Capex data — highlighting a boom in data centres and renewable energy investment — while checking the speed of the economic recovery in New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar outshone most currencies again overnight. It’s now at multi-decade high against the Yen. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the influence of yesterday’s CPI numbers and weakening of the US dollar. There’s also a brief look at the State of the Union Address, why the Yen is weakening further, the push and pull of oil prices and what next for tariffs. Aside from Q4 capex for Australia, it’s a low news day ahead, unless NVIDIA lights the touchpaper on tech stocks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters about a fairly quiet session for data and market action. President Trump’s 10% tariffs has sent ripples through the UK and EU, whilst the Yen has felt pressure following reports of political concern over further rate hikes, as well as China’s strategic export ban on critical minerals to several Japanese firms. There was a rebound in US consumer confidence driven largely by Republican voters, a tech-led rally in US equities ahead of NVIDIA’s results (still a day away), and the "open question" of rate cuts at the Bank of England. They also look ahead to Australia's monthly CPI release today, Michelle Bullock’s upcoming address, and Donald Trump’s (no doubt lengthy) State of the Union address. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect a classic "risk-off" shift in the global markets, marked by a retreat in US stocks and a pivot toward safe-haven assets. They explore the fallout from recent US Supreme Court rulings on trade policy, the persistent volatility surrounding the AI and software sectors, and shifting labor market expectations, highlighted in a speech nby Chris Waller overnight. Plus, the surprising resilience of the German business climate and the strengthening of the Chinese Renminbi as markets return from the Lunar New Year break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil sits down with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to break down a chaotic weekend in US trade policy following the Supreme Court's ruling against previous tariff structures and the administration's subsequent pivot to a global 15% tariff. They discuss the ripple effects across global markets—including a surprisingly resilient Aussie dollar—while analysing a significant miss in US Q4 GDP and the implications of rising core PCE on future Fed easing. They also touch on the latest global PMI data, showing unexpected strength in the UK and Germany, and preview a busy week ahead featuring Australian CPI and insights from Fed officials on the economic impact of AI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s podcast, Dr. Blair Chapman, Senior Economist at SEEK, previews the upcoming SEEK AI Gauge Report, highlighting that while overall job ad volumes have recently declined, demand for AI-specific skills is surging. Chapman notes a "broadening" of AI demand beyond the technical IT sector into fields like marketing and content creation, where approximately one in 20 ads now request AI proficiency. While the podcast addresses common fears of job displacement, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles, Chapman emphasizes that AI is currently augmenting rather than replacing most positions and creating new specialized roles such as AI ethics officers and AI content trainers. Ultimately, the discussion suggests that "AI fluency" is becoming a baseline requirement across the Australian workforce to drive productivity and navigate the evolving labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, reinforcing the case for a potential RBA rate hike in May as the labour market remains tighter than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above $71.80 a barrel as the U.S. bolsters its air power in the Middle East to levels not seen since 2003, creating a volatile backdrop of geopolitical risk. While the U.S. continues to show economic resilience with a strong labor market, a record-high trade deficit and cautious outlooks from major retailers like Walmart are tempering global market optimism. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the overnight market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are heating up in the Middle East, with Iran getting itself ready in case talks fail. As a result oil prices have moved up sharply, with Brent back over $70 a barrel. While the geopolitical scene is tense, tech stocks are bouncing back, perhaps using a set of moderately optimistic second-tier data as the reason. Meanwhile NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through UK inflatioin, which has cooled to 3%, and Aussie wages holding steady at 3.4%. Australian employment numbers are out today and, to top it all off, the tech world is bracing for Mark Zuckerberg’s landmark testimony on whether Meta’s algorithms are intentionally addictive—an outcome that could have a big impact on share prices. Gavin also manages to sneek in the FOMC minutes, just released. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA choppy session for equities, bonds and energy, as Iran went from powder keg to hopes of peace. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the talks have a long way to go and oil is still well down despite the switch in sentiment. Phil and Rodrigo also break down the pound’s 0.6% slide following a rise in UK unemployment to 5.2% and they dive into the RBA’s latest minutes, which showed a hold was given consideration. There’s also discussion on Canada’s "slow grind" disinflation and a look ahead to today’s Australian Wage Price Index and the RBNZ rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTrading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5% higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continues to show strong trading conditions and high-capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort. With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2%, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s widely expected rate hike to 3.85% stole the show, but it was the sharper tone in the Statement on Monetary Policy and Michelle Bullock’s press conference that really moved markets, with the Bank now warning of broader‑based inflation pressures and pushing its return‑to‑target timeline all the way out to mid‑2028. The Aussie dollar surged past 70 US cents as equities softened and bond yields climbed. Meanwhile gold has bounced back a little, the US dollar slipped, the Fed’s loan officer survey showed mixed credit demand, Europe awaits fresh CPI, China’s services PMI is due, and with Washington still in partial shutdown the ADP report is the only US jobs data we’ll see this week, apart from what we can glean from the US services ISM out later. Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith markets all but certain the RBA will lift rates today, attention turns to the Bank’s updated forecasts. Meanwhile traders navigate a week without US jobs data thanks to Washington’s partial shutdown. A stronger US dollar, buoyant equities and rising bond yields set the backdrop, alongside a hawkish market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and a punchy US ISM showing growth in orders and production but weaker employment. Oil has slumped, gold has tumbled, China’s private‑sector PMI has surprised on the upside, and the US–India tariff shift barely moved the dial.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s episode digs into the market whiplash triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a move that nudged the US dollar higher, knocked the Aussie lower, and sent precious metals into a full‑blown plunge, even as equities and bonds delivered a more mixed, almost reluctant response. We unpack whether the gold and silver surge was really about Fed independence, revisit Warsh’s crisis‑era credentials and his scepticism of QE, and explore what his arrival means for balance‑sheet policy, rate‑cut expectations, and the future of Stephen Miran. Alongside that, we scan a messy global backdrop: China’s PMIs slipping below 50, Europe surprising with stronger GDP, US manufacturing beating forecasts, Japan’s inflation still too sticky for the BoJ’s comfort, and Washington wrestling with a partial government shutdown. Plus, a look ahead to a packed central‑bank week — RBA, BoE, ECB — and a Middle East update that has US officials signalling caution despite the President’s military build‑up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMicrosoft was hammered overnight on fears it’s pushing too hard, too fast on AI investment, a sharp contrast to Meta, which is spending heavily too but can point to AI‑driven ad revenue as proof it’s paying off; add in rising speculation that Washington is preparing to strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal materialises, a tension clearly visible in a 3% jump in oil, while iron ore is climbing on China’s effective scrapping of its property‑sector borrowing limits. NAB’s Rodrigo Catriul joins Phil to talk through all this and more, with a lot of data due today, including Australian private‑sector credit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hike next week, yet yields slipped. Geopolitics simmered, with US naval deployments raising questions about Iran and adding fuel to the gold rally. Currency chatter centred on yen intervention rumours — quashed by Scott Bessent — while the Bank of Canada held steady amid US trade uncertainty. And with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell, markets braced for another test of the AI‑driven tech narrative. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe dollar has weakened again, lifting the Aussie and most majors, while oil, equities and spot gold all pushed higher in a broadly risk‑positive session. Bond moves are mild but yields are edging up across several markets, and silver is having a wild swing lower. Taylor Nugent joins us as the NAB Business Survey shows a rebound in conditions and confidence, capacity utilisation easing only slightly, and Q4 CPI likely to come in above the RBA’s forecast — all reinforcing the chance of a February rate hike. With the Fed tonight, a hawkish tone could unsettle markets given sticky inflation, softer jobs data and a sharp drop in US consumer confidence, alongside rising political tension and the risk of a partial government shutdown. We also have the Bank of Canada, NZ filled‑jobs data and a huge slate of tech earnings still to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar is on the back foot, falling to its lowest level in four months, the Yen is clawing back territory, precious metals are surging to fresh highs, and the Aussie is the strongest it’s been in years — all setting the stage for a busy week ahead. Attention now turns to whether talk of coordinated action between Japan and the New York Fed signals more of a push for a weaker Dollar and stronger Yen — even as the BoJ remains reluctant to signal rate hikes. Gavin Friend joins us to unpack the latest market moves, the influence of stronger US data and the political uncertainty from Washington, including the real possibility of a US government shutdown this week. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey lands today, ahead of tomorrow’s Q4 CPI, with US consumer confidence also on the slate Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal, argues that Donald Trump’s flurry of geopolitical moves — from abducting Nicolás Maduro to threatening Iran and making claims on Greenland — is best read as strategic signalling aimed at China rather than random headline chasing. By disrupting Venezuelan and potentially Iranian oil flows, Washington is reminding Beijing how exposed it is to imported energy, while the sudden fixation on Greenland reflects US fears of China and Russia expanding into an increasingly accessible Arctic. Layered on top is a deep contradiction in Trump’s promise of “energy dominance”: US drillers need high prices to invest, while Trump promises voters cheap fuel. Markets, meanwhile, have largely tuned out of the geopolitical noise. The result, Tom says, is a mix of genuine strategic messaging and Trump’s trademark “flood the zone” chaos — a pattern that will shape, and probably destabilise, the months ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets faced a whiplash day of geopolitics and data, as President Trump’s abrupt Greenland U‑turn steadies equity markets even while uncertainty keeps gold surging. Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters unpack a stronger Aussie dollar, rising local bond yields, and the surprisingly sharp drop in Australia’s unemployment rate that has markets leaning even further toward a February RBA hike. They sweep through firmer US spending and GDP revisions, falling jobless claims, softer NZ retail numbers, and a big day of global PMIs, CPI prints, and the Bank of Japan’s delicate dance with a weakening yen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump used his Davos address to insist there is “no going back” on his push to acquire Greenland, ruling out military action but signalling that more tariffs on Europe look inevitable — a stance that has kept gold at fresh highs even as broader markets remain relatively calm. Currencies and bonds were quiet overnight, with the Aussie dollar firmer and JGB yields retracing, while US equities stabilised after yesterday’s sharp fall. Oil is little changed, but the IEA warns that rising surplus stocks will keep prices capped despite stronger non‑OECD demand this year. Hopes of a Ukraine breakthrough faded with President Zelensky absent from Davos, and the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical over the case to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, hinting the central bank may not be as heavily reshaped as expected. US pending home sales slumped in December, UK inflation was mixed, and attention now turns to today’s Australian employment data and US releases including core PCE, income and spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are on edge this morning as the Greenland fallout continues to reverberate through currencies, bonds, metals and equities, with fears that US–European trade and intelligence ties may suffer lasting damage. Tensions escalated as the President revealed a private text exchange with President Macron and threatened 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. Meanwhile, Japan has endured a sharp bond sell off —its “Liz Truss moment” — after concerns that Sanae Takaichi’s proposed tax cuts are unfunded. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through a session that has seen commodity prices are surging, equities weaker and bond yields are higher across major markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s renewed push on Greenland and fresh tariff threats against Europe have markets bracing for possible retaliation, with EU leaders signalling they may hold firm rather than concede — even hinting at using their anti‑coercion powers, despite German hesitation. Precious metals are surging as investors hedge the “Greenland crisis”, while currencies and bonds move only modestly in a session thinned by the US holiday. European equities are weaker, China’s latest data remain soft, and Canada’s inflation mix adds to global CPI nerves ahead of the US print. With Davos only just underway — and memories of last year’s sharply anti‑EU Trump video address still fresh — the next 24 hours will determine whether this escalates into a trade war or proves to be little more than a storm in a teacup. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets open the week a little snowblind, with investors unsure how to process President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of tariffs on European countries that oppose the idea. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to sift through the market reaction, alongside shifting expectations for the next Fed chair — with Kevin Hassett fading and Kevin Warsh now the frontrunner — plus a firmer US dollar, softer Aussie, weaker equities, rising bond yields and a yen that’s clawing back amid talk of possible intervention. China’s GDP and industrial production are due, so it Canada’s CPI, with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day and the World Economic Forum kicking off in Davos. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA cautious, uneasy calm hangs over markets this morning, with no ruling yet from the US Supreme Court on tariffs and no military response against Iran, even as the US and UK quietly evacuate personnel from a Qatar base. Equities have stumbled, led by sharp falls in the S&P and NASDAQ, while investors rotate out of big tech and into small caps and precious metals, pushing gold, silver, copper and tin to fresh records. Bond yields are lower across the board, the US dollar is softer, and commodities are firmer, all underscoring a clear risk‑off tone. China has posted a striking US$1.2 trillion annual trade surplus on stronger‑than‑expected export growth, US retail sales have surprised on the upside, and Australia’s job vacancies continue their slow drift lower. We also touch on mixed US bank earnings, improving NZ labour data, upcoming regional Fed surveys and UK GDP and industrial production out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has been directing sharp words at Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, while the Fed Chair has pushed back, suggesting that any legal action against him is politically motivated. It’s the kind of confrontation with the central bank that many had anticipated, yet markets have taken it in their stride so far.Where markets have reacted more noticeably is the proposal for a 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates — though this may prove to be another policy idea that makes noise without ever becoming reality.We also look ahead to US CPI, and unpack a couple of Australian data points: consumer confidence, household spending, and what they collectively signal for the RBA. If further confirmation was needed, yesterday’s numbers strengthen the case for another rate rise — potentially as early as next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents. Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo.For our final morning edition of the year, NAB’s Gavin Friend joins us from London to unpack the latest central bank moves: the Bank of England’s razor‑thin vote to cut rates, the ECB holding firm, and the Bank of Japan poised to lift rates to their highest since 1995. We also touch on Norges Bank and the Riksbank staying put, US inflation data and jobless claims, and a surprisingly strong GDP print out of New Zealand.Plenty to chew over before the Christmas break — from hawkish cuts to resilient economies, and what it all means for the Fed, fiscal policy, and the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest global PMIs. The surprise outsider was the UK, the only place to show an improvement in services and manufacturing numbers. That’s not going to stop the Bank of England, though, which is expected to cut rates this week. We are a day away from the central bank deluge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a pivotal week for global markets as central banks take centre stage. The long‑awaited, up‑to‑date U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls report finally lands, just days after the Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that leaves investors scrambling. In the UK, GDP figures arrived with sharper precision, revealing an economy sliding into decline right before the Bank of England meets. And across the globe, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and others are lining up with their own policy calls. NAB's Sally Auld talks us through the busy week ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th December 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the goods, add a margin and sell on. Except its not a grocery store, its trading rooms in Australia, London, New York and Asia. But just like a retailer, the secret is knowing what to buy, how to price it and how long to hang onto it.Phil tries to pry into how Tim and his team balance the risk in all this buying and selling, how the liquidity is managed, and the role of AI and algorithms in today’s trading environment. And has President Trump been good or bad for traders? Tim talks us through how things went on Liberation Day.A fascinating chat, even if Tim refuses to give away the contents of his secret sauce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian government bond yields have been surging to multi year highs as speculation mounts about a rate rise early in the new year. But yields fell a little yesterday and overnight after weaker jobs numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields have fallen more widely as a response to the FOMC meeting yesterday, with questions about whether we will only see one cut next year. The US trade deficit fell again - is this a sign President Trump’s policies are working? At zero percent, the Swiss Bank decided they can’t go any lower. And UK GDP is out today - will it be as gloomy as an English winter’s day? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.