NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 6th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA kept rates on hold, didn’t change too much in their statement, but Australian bonds still rallied. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was a curious reaction, but just about every market wants to avoid contemplating that rates could go higher even if that might still be the case here. Globally the mood is being driven by weaker CPI data. The OECD revealed that it has fallen to the slowest pace since October 2021 in its member countries. And ECB hawk Isabel Schnabel has completely changed direction, suggesting rates there will fall next year. In the US the Services ISM rose a little and the jobs market eased a bit, helping contain wage price concerns. In short, it was generally a good news day. Although equities are still mixed and oil continues to head south. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith shares falling and bond yields rising, markets might have taken a step too far when it comes to anticipating the timing of rate cuts next year, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says cuts are still expected. They have just priced in a little more risk ahead of a series of key data releases this week, including payrolls (Friday) and services ISM (today). The RBA meets today and the accompanying statement could be a little dovish, given weaker inflation data, but there’s resilience in consumer and housing data that makes NAB believe a February hike is still likely. As well as the US Services ISM tonight, there’s also the JOLTs numbers (job openings and quits) which has had the power to move markets recently. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhen it comes to predicting rate cuts by the Fed, will the chair Jerome Powell be the last one to shift his position? During his ‘fireside chat’ on Friday he said it would be premature to assume they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets clearly aren’t paying too much attention, with yields falling sharply lower at the end of the week. Although there were two words in Powell’s talk that could support the idea of cuts sooner rather than later. Meanwhile two central banks are expected to keep rates on hold – the RBA tomorrow and the Bank of Canada later in the week. And focus now switches to employment numbers, with US non-farm payrolls data out on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st December 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.On The Weekend Edition NAB CEO Ross McEwan says his focus next year is on keeping customers safe from cybercrime, fraud and scams. Phil Dobbie also asks him about the role of AI to help counter cybercrime as well as help in the day-to-day operation of the bank. In a wide-ranging discussion, they also look at the economic outlook for 2024, fixing Australia’s housing affordability and getting people back into the workplace. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean inflation fells a little faster than expected. It’s knocked the Euro a little today, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says for the Euro to really see some gains it’ll take a combination of US rate cuts alongside strong growth outside the US, to help drive down the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar ticked up a little today, with no surprises in the Core PCE numbers, and some unsurprising high-for-longer sentiment from Fed speakers. Jerome Powell will no doubt follow the same script in his fireside-chat later today. Aussie yields rose quite a bit higher overnight, perhaps because data is showing some resilience, particularly in housing. China’s PMI’s yesterday though, showed just how fragile their recovery is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian inflation was lower than expected yesterday. It was the same in Germany. And US quarterly PCE prices were revised lower. All signs that seem to be indicating price growth is slowing and central banks will be pushing rates lower. But there are some caveats to all that. NAB’s Gavin Friend reminds us that the monthly CPI numbers in Australia are heavily influenced by the sample rotation, which will have underplayed services inflation, so it’s too early to take NAB’s prediction of another hike off the table. In New Zealand, even though the RBNZ kept rates on hold yesterday, higher demand from immigration could force another move higher. Today’s US monthly core PCE deflator and the inflation numbers for the whole of the Eurozone will give a clearer picture. For now though, bond markets are enjoying the ride. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed lower as markets continue to expect rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tapas Strickland says NAB’s own modelling based on recent data supports significant cuts next year. The Fed’s Chris Waller, who had previously flagged concern about the pace of growth saying “something’s gotta give”. Now he’s saying it’s the pace of the economy that is giving and the Fed is in a good place to return inflation to 2%, eventually. Comments like that have helped push bond yields lower. Today the focus is on the first bits of CPI data from Europe, and Australia’s monthly CPI read. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s an in-between day, with little ion the way of economic news, but inflation data just round the corner, in the form of Australian CPI and US PCE. There were sizeable auctions of 2 and 5 year Treasuries this morning, with softer demand, but that hasn’t driven the direction of bond markets says NAB’s Skye Masters, because yields are down. Instead it adds to the mood that the Fed will cut rates, perhaps early next year. Softer US data, such as weaker new home sales and drops in employment in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, add to the supporting evidence. Today Australian retail sales are released, and we talk through some of the findings in the latest NAB Online Sales Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt the end of a quiet week we saw the US dollar fall a little further on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this reflects the expectation that there will be no further hikes from the Fed. The Aussie dollar hasn’t realised the full potential, largely because of question marks over the speed of the Chinese recovery. There was mixed economic news at the end of the week; US PMIs were a little softer than expected, particularly for manufacturing. It seems Black Friday online sales were strong, and retail sales in New Zealand and Canada were better than expected. So, will too much resilience add to inflation woes. The BoE’s Huw Pill says supply constraints continue to be the issue so they need to hammer demand down to meet it. The key number this week will be the PCE inflation data out of the US. Nobody wants to see that tick up again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Consolidation will continue in the superannuation industry as a way of provided better returns for members. That’s the prediction from Mercer’s Chief Investment Officer Kylie Willment, talking to Phil on the Weekend Edition. Mercer recently merged with BP Super, of course, and Kylie says they are always on the look out for other opportunities. They are also focusing more on unlisted assets, that can provide value with more predictable returns. She talks through their key areas of focus. Finally, the Achilles Heal of Australian super is how funds manage the post-retirement relationship with members. Kylie says it’s what stopped Australia getting an A+ grade in the latest Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were relatively quiet overnight with the US off for Thanksgiving, but stronger PMI data from Europe created some interest, pushing the Euro higher, but NAB’s Ray Attrill still says German can expect to enter a shallow recession. The pound performed slightly better because it provided the only PMI number that actually indicated growth. The Riksbank surprised by keeping rates on hold and right-wing anti-EU candidate Geert Wilders won the most votes in the Dutch general election. Today US PMIs will provide a useful comparison to the European numbers, and one month out from the next BoJ meeting we’ll get to see Japan’s CPI numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian inflation is now driven by local factors. That’s what the RBA’s Michelle Bullock said at the Australian Business Economists dinner last night. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it doesn’t sound like a central bank that’s done with interest rate hikes, and points to how we are sitting 100 basis points below our economic peers. So can we really expect to get away with just one more rate hike? Meanwhile softer data from the US, mixed, curiously, with rising inflation expectations. Oil is choppy ahead of the delayed OPEC+ meeting – Sally explains the significance of the delay. And the UK’s min-budget delivered little except a forecast for growth next year, light on business investment and heavily dependent on government consumption, whilst the Chancellor’s rhetoric promised the opposite. European PMIs are the big numbers today but trade will be light tonight as the US starts Thanksgiving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC minutes were cagey when it came to the prospect of rate cuts. The RBA minutes were the same, with Michelle Bullock also reiterating her concerns about persistent wage inflation. And the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey told UK politicians that markets were getting ahead of themselves when it came to pricing rate drops. Hence the mood is a little more sombre, with falls in equities and little movement in bonds. Oil has also been up and down today ahead of OPEC+ at the weekend. There are geopolitical factors at play too – a budget crisis in Germany and fears Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. Today it’ll be interesting to see if the inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey fall back down, after their surprise lift last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a big 20-year Treasury auction today, which went better than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets had assumed a flood of new issuance in a short week would suppress demand, but that wasn’t the case. Elsewhere, the overseas Yuan hit its highest level since early September. More positive sentiment from China is helping lift iron ore prices further, which is positive for the Australian dollar. Two sets of minutes are out in the next 24 hours – from the RBA and the FOMC. The Fed minutes were quickly outdated by the softer than expected inflation data in the US.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quite day on Friday with very little of earth-shattering consequence to report. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about just how devoid of new sit was. We did see a downside surprise in UK retail numbers but, as flagged on Friday podcast, it was a very wet month. Loil is up on the news that OPEC+ will extend its production cuts into the new year. Today is equally as quiet – if not more so – for data releases, but things do hot up later in the week with the release of PMIs, just as America sits down to its roast turkey dinner. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ethical investment, or ESG; it’s being talked about more and more. It seems more people want to be involved, so long as it provides the returns they expect. This week Phil is joined by Maria Loyez, Chief Customer Officer at Australian Ethical, a fund manager specialising in responsible investments. How does she see the balance between making the right choice for the planet and seeing a worthwhile return for investments by your business, your customers, or your own personal fund? Can you make money and save the planet? Yes, you can, says Maria so long as you recognise that ethical investments do not perform in the same way as an index fund. There’s also discussion on the findings in this week’s ‘2023 Responsible Investing Report’, published jointly with industry research firm Investment Trends.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSo, after the excitement of softening inflation in the US comes concern that its being accompanied by a delayed slowdown in the economy. That was certainly reflected in some of the second tier US data, and could explain a further fall in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Walmart reported weak sales too in October but highlighted an expected period of deflation in the months to come. Put all the pieces together and markets are increasing the expectation for rate cuts next year. It'll be a while before the RBA cuts rates, but at least yesterday’s surprise increase in employment numbers wasn’t enough to raise the likelihood of a December hike. Instead they’ll wait for the next set of inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursdsay 16th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGoldilocks continues to deliver what America wants, with softer producer prices and only a slight move down in retail sales. Equity markets continue to enjoy the party, although bond yields are back on the rise. Hardly surprising given the scale of the moves this week, says NAB’s Tayor Nugent. A fall in oil should also not be over-interpreted, given the recent moves. Has the Goldilocks effect also moved to the UK. Okay, the economy isn’t as strong, but CPI has come down faster than expected, adding to the belief that the BoE has probably done all it need to do. The same isn’t being said about the RBA. Will they be influenced by today’s employment numbers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesdsay 15th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation fell further than most expected – although NAB had predicted a downward surprise. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the market response, which has been felt in equities, bonds and the dollar. It follows two big drops in Eurozone inflation, adding to the view that the worst is over and central banks can start focus on dropping rates rather than lifting. The US CPI comes in the thick of a range of critical data, including UK employment, Australian wages data, UK CPI, Japan’s CPI and a plethora of China numbers too. No wonder the markets are busy, and keen to party. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe NY Fed’s consumer inflation survey overnight had expectations fall a little over last month, in contrast to the University of Michigan survey last week, which had inflation expectations rising. So who do you believe? You believe the hard numbers, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, which are out tonight (Australia time). Market moves have been fairly restrained in the build up to the US CPI release, but the response could be quite marked. Ray says it’s worth looking to the second decimal place to get a real handle of the speed of travel. Locally the NAB Business Survey is out today along with the latest consumer sentiment read. The UK has employment numbers, the NFB small business survey is out and the ZEW survey for Germany. A busy day.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt seems the more dovish sentiment in the US has been reversed by Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed might have more to do to keep inflation in check. NAB’s Skye Masters says the weak 30-year auction on Thursday has also seen yields push lower, along with upward pressure on inflation expectations. Moody’s also moved the US outlook from rating from stable to negative, which might have impacted yields at the margin. In Australia the Statement on Monetary Policy provided revised forecasts for Australia, which could be used as an argument for more rate hikes. Yet the language of the Statement was quite dovish. No wonder markets are confused. The key release this week, is US CPI tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday November 10th 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.With the risk of interest rates going even higher, and a slug of the Australian population yet to move onto variable loans, are we about to see a sudden change in consumer spending as more households step off the fixed rate cliff. This week Sonia Straumann, NAB’s Executive, Credit Risk, says households have already modified their behaviour in readiness. But how much of their spending now is dependent on eating into cash reserves built up during the pandemic? And how will small businesses cope with a sustained period of lower consumption. Sonia says that’s one of the big risk factors, alongside commercial real estate, construction and farming. What else is keeping her awake at night? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are also preparing for words from Jerome Powell later today, following fairly dovish talk from other Fed speakers. Today the RBA releases forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy. So, what will Tapas be looking out for? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe is heading for a recession next year, whilst inflation expectations one year out have risen by half a percent in one month. But generally, today, a few non definitive words from central bankers, otherwise, it’s been slim pickings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the economy. That premise is being challenged now as inflation itself is taking longer to come down, so the RBA could still be lifting rates just as other central banks start to acknowledge market expectations for rate cuts next year. So late to the party, and last to leave? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold. We also get a sneak peak at the RBA’s forecasts today, with the detail provided in Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement. Meanwhile, markets have turned a little, after last week’s bond and equity rally, built on the growing belief that the Fed will drop rates starting mid-2024. Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor has reiterated a lift in rates this year is very unlikely – hardly a surprise given its November – and Robert Holzmann has said the ECB could still raise rates, if necessary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasing number of investors are expecting rate cuts by the middle of next year. It’s a different story for Australia though. The RBA is likely to show the job isn’t done with a rate hike tomorrow, with the possibility of another to follow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen successful businesses navigate their way through and come out on top?Ann Sherry has a wealth of business experience. She’s worked in banking, tourism, and education. She is Chancellor of Queensland University of Technology and sits on the boards of NAB, the Enero Group and the Port of Townsville. She headed Carnival Cruises during a period of turmoil, but managed to reinvent the brand and restore goodwill.On this edition of The Weekend Edition Ann talks about how companies should be reinventing themselves to cope with changing habits. And how investors can determine which companies are heading in the right direction. She suggests there’s not enough focus on forward indicators that show you how well a company is performing internally.It’s a useful and entertaining twenty minutes for business managers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly helping to push risk assets higher, with equity markets doing particularly well. The Bank of England and Norge Bank both kept rates on hold yesterday, with the BoE revising its UK growth forecast down to zero for 2024. Tonight, non-farm payrolls will be watched closely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants of future policy, reflecting the recent rises in long end bond yields. Will those yields influence future policy decisions? Powell said it was possible if a few conditions are met. Later on, the Bank of England and Norges Bank – both expected to remain on hold. Will the RBA next week be out of kilter with the other central banks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the ECB has almost certainly run its course, and more talk of how quickly they will start to lower rates. Meanwhile, all eyes today on the FOMC tomorrow morning, just before Thursday’s podcast and why, even though the will keep rates on hold, it’s not plain sailing for the US by any means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the pressure is off the ECB, who could likely reached their terminal rate, although at least one ECB member is saying there could be more. There will certainly be more from the RBA after yesterday’s retail numbers in Australia, which came in stronger than most had expected. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets today, amidst expectations that they will lift the cap on long end yields. We also we get confirmation of the size of US bond issuance today – and the makeup of that issuance later this week. Each event will have an influence on bond yields and currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre equity markets ahead of the curve? US firms have reported better than expected earnings and consumer spending is still growing. Yet shares are lower, with S&P entering correction territory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the tide is starting to turn. Earning projections are less promising, US person income is lower than spending and consumer inflation expectations are rising. The escalation in the war on Gaza over the weekend will add to concerns. It’s a tricky time for the FOMC meeting this week, and for the Bank of Japan tomorrow, faced with rising inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In these uncertain times, of high inflation, high interest rates, changing consumer patterns, there are some things that seem a little more certain, like our shift to renewables and our need for investment in infrastructure as the climate changes, populations grow and consumer behaviour is transformed to the online world.Georgia Hall, ESG Analyst at Maple-Brown Abbott, joins Phil to talk about how they have given a priority to investing in long-term infrastructure plays, with geographic monopolies. What are the key ingredients for ensuring you have a safe long-term investment?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS GDP came in higher-than-expected driven by strong consumer spending. But the core PCE index grew at the slowest rate since Q4 2019. So, inflation cooling, consumption rising. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether it will last and, if so, why are equiites struggling to much? Meanwhile, there’s growing consensus that the RBA will lift rates. We look at what was said in front of Senate Estimates yesterday. And the ECB on hold. Did they have any choice? Plus, some more big earnings results from the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation numbers for Australia were higher than NAB’s expectations, which were higher than market expectations. The number is also well above the RBA’s own forecasting which, NAB’s Gavin Friend say, leaves them with little choice than to pursue at least one more rate hike, starting next month. Elsewhere markets have returned to a more cautious approach, as hopes fade of a diplomatic resolution to the situation in Gaza and Israel. The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and the ECB may well do the same, but have they both reached their peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are displaying a degree of hope this morning, presumably because there has been no ground movement by Israelis into Gaza, but press reports seems somewhat less optimistic. Meanwhile, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest PMIs show the continuing divide between the US and Europe, with the EZ Services and Manufacturing numbers both pulled lower. The UK employment numbers have become somewhat unreliable, meaning the BoE has less certainty in one of the key indicators it tracks. For the RBA the most important number is released today – CPI for Q3. NAB believes the number will be high enough to see interest rates lifted in a couple of weeks. Plus, earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were no strong data releases over the last 24 hours to give markets direction and some have clearly made the bold assumption that no ground movement into Gaza is a sign that tensions are easing. As a result, we’ve seen bond yields pull off recent highs, equity markets rise, gold fall and the US dollar down. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the geopolitical uncertainty and the sell-off in bond yields has rattled investors and there’s plenty of reason to sit on your hands, which is why we are range trading, albeit with large intraday swings. Todays PMIs might give a little direction, whilst locally eyes and ears will be on Michelle Bullock, the new RBA Governor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS 10-year treasuries got up to 4.996% last week – not quite making it over 5%. So, does that mean they have peaked? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of what could be a volatile week, as uncertainty remains over the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The key data point for Australia this week is the Q3 CPI numbers, which Ray says will be the arbiter as to whether the RBA does lift rates at the start of November. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Loretta Mester suggested one more hike should do it for the US. Then job done? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We invited UK-based economist Vicky Pryce on to talk about why Europe was struggling with growth whilst the US was on the road to recovery? How much is down to the issue of applying a single monetary policy across a diverse range of EU member economies? How much is the fact that Europe hasn’t injected as much fiscal stimulus as the US, with its Inflation Reduction program? All of the above applies, but Vicky suggests, with inflation on the way down, the ECB, BoE and other central banks shouldn’t be delaying lowering interest rates, to enable economies to recover. Central banks need to change their rhetoric so bond yields subside, and they need to ease off quantitative tightening until a more appropriate time. A very different perspective to the IMF that has warned that easing too quickly can cause inflation to re-emerge.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a day that has seen sell-offs in equities, treasuries and the US dollar. So where is the money going? NAB’s Ken Crompton says some of it is still pouring into oil, as uncertainty mounts over the Israeli-Gaza war, but we’re also seeing a little diversity between the US, which continues to show signs of resilience, and Europe, where the news is less positive. Australia saw a fall in the unemployment rate yesterday, so there’s also discussion about what that means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields reached new multi-year highs overnight, with sharp rises on 10 years in the US and the UK. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, this time, it isn’t further central bank speculation driving yields higher, it’s the rising tensions in the Middle Easta and concerns about oil prices. Nonetheless, yields might be influenced by the much-anticipated Jerome Powell talk in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The RBA’s Michelle Bullock had a fireside chat yesterday – we give the lowdown on that and what to expect in Australia’s labour market numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding more hawkish, with the minutes of the last meeting talking of lower tolerance for the slower return of inflation. UK CPOI today could fuel a hike by the BoE as well. But, two central banks are likely to be on hold, with Canada and New Zealand both seeing inflation come in lower than expected. Plus, which well-paid deejay is hanging up his headphones? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, in the world of central banks, markets are waiting in anticipation for a Jerome Powell address later in the week to see if he mirrors the suggestion from others at the Fed that higher yields could negate the need for further hikes in rates. It’s a different message from the BoE’s Huw Pill who said the question of more rises was ‘finely balanced’. Lots of data today, including US retail sales, CPI for NZ and Canada, UK wages data and the RBA minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative, without factoring in the risk of geopolitical uncertainty. The Israel Gaza conflict s now being taken seriously, with sharp rises in oil as questions remain around how much of a regional war could emanate from the unrest. Meanwhile, the question remains about how well contained inflation really is? The Michigan survey showed inflation expectations rising slightly. Rising oil prices will only add to that. Plus, an important week for Australian releases, Tapas talks us through it.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a comfortable life? And, as the size of Australian superannuation assets grows, where do the investments go? Phil talks to Diane Somerville, Principal for Superannuation Consulting at Deloitte Australia about the growth of Australian superannuation, consolidation within the industry and the impacts of COVID. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by diplomatic efforts from the US and China. UK GDP came in weak, and there’s a wealth of China data today. Also on the podcast Phil talks to Jennifer Mackinlay, Austrade’s General Manager for Europe, about how they are flying the flag for the Aussie renewables industry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculating on another one early next year. Meanwhile, there’s very little caution being displayed in the Middle East, with volatility in oil prices as the question remains as to whether Iran will be implicated in any way and face sanctions that could cut global oil supplies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates again this year. JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s still a string chance that another hike will happen, and that the US will face a recession down the track as a consequence. The third surprise, if it happens, is a one trillion Yuan stimulus measure reportedly being considered by China. All, of that, ahead of the US CPI numbers later this week, which may add to the list of surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from more hikes to keeping cash rates where they are. That’s acted as a distraction from the main event, but individual shares match what you’d expect from a war setting, with airlines down, defence stocks up, and the same with oil. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Will it show more resilience that cold further enhance the case for further hikes by the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.