NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC minutes were cagey when it came to the prospect of rate cuts. The RBA minutes were the same, with Michelle Bullock also reiterating her concerns about persistent wage inflation. And the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey told UK politicians that markets were getting ahead of themselves when it came to pricing rate drops. Hence the mood is a little more sombre, with falls in equities and little movement in bonds. Oil has also been up and down today ahead of OPEC+ at the weekend. There are geopolitical factors at play too – a budget crisis in Germany and fears Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. Today it’ll be interesting to see if the inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey fall back down, after their surprise lift last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a big 20-year Treasury auction today, which went better than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets had assumed a flood of new issuance in a short week would suppress demand, but that wasn’t the case. Elsewhere, the overseas Yuan hit its highest level since early September. More positive sentiment from China is helping lift iron ore prices further, which is positive for the Australian dollar. Two sets of minutes are out in the next 24 hours – from the RBA and the FOMC. The Fed minutes were quickly outdated by the softer than expected inflation data in the US.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quite day on Friday with very little of earth-shattering consequence to report. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about just how devoid of new sit was. We did see a downside surprise in UK retail numbers but, as flagged on Friday podcast, it was a very wet month. Loil is up on the news that OPEC+ will extend its production cuts into the new year. Today is equally as quiet – if not more so – for data releases, but things do hot up later in the week with the release of PMIs, just as America sits down to its roast turkey dinner. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ethical investment, or ESG; it’s being talked about more and more. It seems more people want to be involved, so long as it provides the returns they expect. This week Phil is joined by Maria Loyez, Chief Customer Officer at Australian Ethical, a fund manager specialising in responsible investments. How does she see the balance between making the right choice for the planet and seeing a worthwhile return for investments by your business, your customers, or your own personal fund? Can you make money and save the planet? Yes, you can, says Maria so long as you recognise that ethical investments do not perform in the same way as an index fund. There’s also discussion on the findings in this week’s ‘2023 Responsible Investing Report’, published jointly with industry research firm Investment Trends.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSo, after the excitement of softening inflation in the US comes concern that its being accompanied by a delayed slowdown in the economy. That was certainly reflected in some of the second tier US data, and could explain a further fall in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Walmart reported weak sales too in October but highlighted an expected period of deflation in the months to come. Put all the pieces together and markets are increasing the expectation for rate cuts next year. It'll be a while before the RBA cuts rates, but at least yesterday’s surprise increase in employment numbers wasn’t enough to raise the likelihood of a December hike. Instead they’ll wait for the next set of inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursdsay 16th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGoldilocks continues to deliver what America wants, with softer producer prices and only a slight move down in retail sales. Equity markets continue to enjoy the party, although bond yields are back on the rise. Hardly surprising given the scale of the moves this week, says NAB’s Tayor Nugent. A fall in oil should also not be over-interpreted, given the recent moves. Has the Goldilocks effect also moved to the UK. Okay, the economy isn’t as strong, but CPI has come down faster than expected, adding to the belief that the BoE has probably done all it need to do. The same isn’t being said about the RBA. Will they be influenced by today’s employment numbers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesdsay 15th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation fell further than most expected – although NAB had predicted a downward surprise. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the market response, which has been felt in equities, bonds and the dollar. It follows two big drops in Eurozone inflation, adding to the view that the worst is over and central banks can start focus on dropping rates rather than lifting. The US CPI comes in the thick of a range of critical data, including UK employment, Australian wages data, UK CPI, Japan’s CPI and a plethora of China numbers too. No wonder the markets are busy, and keen to party. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe NY Fed’s consumer inflation survey overnight had expectations fall a little over last month, in contrast to the University of Michigan survey last week, which had inflation expectations rising. So who do you believe? You believe the hard numbers, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, which are out tonight (Australia time). Market moves have been fairly restrained in the build up to the US CPI release, but the response could be quite marked. Ray says it’s worth looking to the second decimal place to get a real handle of the speed of travel. Locally the NAB Business Survey is out today along with the latest consumer sentiment read. The UK has employment numbers, the NFB small business survey is out and the ZEW survey for Germany. A busy day.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt seems the more dovish sentiment in the US has been reversed by Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed might have more to do to keep inflation in check. NAB’s Skye Masters says the weak 30-year auction on Thursday has also seen yields push lower, along with upward pressure on inflation expectations. Moody’s also moved the US outlook from rating from stable to negative, which might have impacted yields at the margin. In Australia the Statement on Monetary Policy provided revised forecasts for Australia, which could be used as an argument for more rate hikes. Yet the language of the Statement was quite dovish. No wonder markets are confused. The key release this week, is US CPI tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday November 10th 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.With the risk of interest rates going even higher, and a slug of the Australian population yet to move onto variable loans, are we about to see a sudden change in consumer spending as more households step off the fixed rate cliff. This week Sonia Straumann, NAB’s Executive, Credit Risk, says households have already modified their behaviour in readiness. But how much of their spending now is dependent on eating into cash reserves built up during the pandemic? And how will small businesses cope with a sustained period of lower consumption. Sonia says that’s one of the big risk factors, alongside commercial real estate, construction and farming. What else is keeping her awake at night? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are also preparing for words from Jerome Powell later today, following fairly dovish talk from other Fed speakers. Today the RBA releases forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy. So, what will Tapas be looking out for? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe is heading for a recession next year, whilst inflation expectations one year out have risen by half a percent in one month. But generally, today, a few non definitive words from central bankers, otherwise, it’s been slim pickings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the economy. That premise is being challenged now as inflation itself is taking longer to come down, so the RBA could still be lifting rates just as other central banks start to acknowledge market expectations for rate cuts next year. So late to the party, and last to leave? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold. We also get a sneak peak at the RBA’s forecasts today, with the detail provided in Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement. Meanwhile, markets have turned a little, after last week’s bond and equity rally, built on the growing belief that the Fed will drop rates starting mid-2024. Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor has reiterated a lift in rates this year is very unlikely – hardly a surprise given its November – and Robert Holzmann has said the ECB could still raise rates, if necessary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasing number of investors are expecting rate cuts by the middle of next year. It’s a different story for Australia though. The RBA is likely to show the job isn’t done with a rate hike tomorrow, with the possibility of another to follow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen successful businesses navigate their way through and come out on top?Ann Sherry has a wealth of business experience. She’s worked in banking, tourism, and education. She is Chancellor of Queensland University of Technology and sits on the boards of NAB, the Enero Group and the Port of Townsville. She headed Carnival Cruises during a period of turmoil, but managed to reinvent the brand and restore goodwill.On this edition of The Weekend Edition Ann talks about how companies should be reinventing themselves to cope with changing habits. And how investors can determine which companies are heading in the right direction. She suggests there’s not enough focus on forward indicators that show you how well a company is performing internally.It’s a useful and entertaining twenty minutes for business managers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly helping to push risk assets higher, with equity markets doing particularly well. The Bank of England and Norge Bank both kept rates on hold yesterday, with the BoE revising its UK growth forecast down to zero for 2024. Tonight, non-farm payrolls will be watched closely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants of future policy, reflecting the recent rises in long end bond yields. Will those yields influence future policy decisions? Powell said it was possible if a few conditions are met. Later on, the Bank of England and Norges Bank – both expected to remain on hold. Will the RBA next week be out of kilter with the other central banks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the ECB has almost certainly run its course, and more talk of how quickly they will start to lower rates. Meanwhile, all eyes today on the FOMC tomorrow morning, just before Thursday’s podcast and why, even though the will keep rates on hold, it’s not plain sailing for the US by any means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the pressure is off the ECB, who could likely reached their terminal rate, although at least one ECB member is saying there could be more. There will certainly be more from the RBA after yesterday’s retail numbers in Australia, which came in stronger than most had expected. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets today, amidst expectations that they will lift the cap on long end yields. We also we get confirmation of the size of US bond issuance today – and the makeup of that issuance later this week. Each event will have an influence on bond yields and currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre equity markets ahead of the curve? US firms have reported better than expected earnings and consumer spending is still growing. Yet shares are lower, with S&P entering correction territory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the tide is starting to turn. Earning projections are less promising, US person income is lower than spending and consumer inflation expectations are rising. The escalation in the war on Gaza over the weekend will add to concerns. It’s a tricky time for the FOMC meeting this week, and for the Bank of Japan tomorrow, faced with rising inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In these uncertain times, of high inflation, high interest rates, changing consumer patterns, there are some things that seem a little more certain, like our shift to renewables and our need for investment in infrastructure as the climate changes, populations grow and consumer behaviour is transformed to the online world.Georgia Hall, ESG Analyst at Maple-Brown Abbott, joins Phil to talk about how they have given a priority to investing in long-term infrastructure plays, with geographic monopolies. What are the key ingredients for ensuring you have a safe long-term investment?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS GDP came in higher-than-expected driven by strong consumer spending. But the core PCE index grew at the slowest rate since Q4 2019. So, inflation cooling, consumption rising. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether it will last and, if so, why are equiites struggling to much? Meanwhile, there’s growing consensus that the RBA will lift rates. We look at what was said in front of Senate Estimates yesterday. And the ECB on hold. Did they have any choice? Plus, some more big earnings results from the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation numbers for Australia were higher than NAB’s expectations, which were higher than market expectations. The number is also well above the RBA’s own forecasting which, NAB’s Gavin Friend say, leaves them with little choice than to pursue at least one more rate hike, starting next month. Elsewhere markets have returned to a more cautious approach, as hopes fade of a diplomatic resolution to the situation in Gaza and Israel. The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and the ECB may well do the same, but have they both reached their peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are displaying a degree of hope this morning, presumably because there has been no ground movement by Israelis into Gaza, but press reports seems somewhat less optimistic. Meanwhile, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest PMIs show the continuing divide between the US and Europe, with the EZ Services and Manufacturing numbers both pulled lower. The UK employment numbers have become somewhat unreliable, meaning the BoE has less certainty in one of the key indicators it tracks. For the RBA the most important number is released today – CPI for Q3. NAB believes the number will be high enough to see interest rates lifted in a couple of weeks. Plus, earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were no strong data releases over the last 24 hours to give markets direction and some have clearly made the bold assumption that no ground movement into Gaza is a sign that tensions are easing. As a result, we’ve seen bond yields pull off recent highs, equity markets rise, gold fall and the US dollar down. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the geopolitical uncertainty and the sell-off in bond yields has rattled investors and there’s plenty of reason to sit on your hands, which is why we are range trading, albeit with large intraday swings. Todays PMIs might give a little direction, whilst locally eyes and ears will be on Michelle Bullock, the new RBA Governor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS 10-year treasuries got up to 4.996% last week – not quite making it over 5%. So, does that mean they have peaked? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of what could be a volatile week, as uncertainty remains over the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The key data point for Australia this week is the Q3 CPI numbers, which Ray says will be the arbiter as to whether the RBA does lift rates at the start of November. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Loretta Mester suggested one more hike should do it for the US. Then job done? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We invited UK-based economist Vicky Pryce on to talk about why Europe was struggling with growth whilst the US was on the road to recovery? How much is down to the issue of applying a single monetary policy across a diverse range of EU member economies? How much is the fact that Europe hasn’t injected as much fiscal stimulus as the US, with its Inflation Reduction program? All of the above applies, but Vicky suggests, with inflation on the way down, the ECB, BoE and other central banks shouldn’t be delaying lowering interest rates, to enable economies to recover. Central banks need to change their rhetoric so bond yields subside, and they need to ease off quantitative tightening until a more appropriate time. A very different perspective to the IMF that has warned that easing too quickly can cause inflation to re-emerge.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a day that has seen sell-offs in equities, treasuries and the US dollar. So where is the money going? NAB’s Ken Crompton says some of it is still pouring into oil, as uncertainty mounts over the Israeli-Gaza war, but we’re also seeing a little diversity between the US, which continues to show signs of resilience, and Europe, where the news is less positive. Australia saw a fall in the unemployment rate yesterday, so there’s also discussion about what that means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields reached new multi-year highs overnight, with sharp rises on 10 years in the US and the UK. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, this time, it isn’t further central bank speculation driving yields higher, it’s the rising tensions in the Middle Easta and concerns about oil prices. Nonetheless, yields might be influenced by the much-anticipated Jerome Powell talk in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The RBA’s Michelle Bullock had a fireside chat yesterday – we give the lowdown on that and what to expect in Australia’s labour market numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding more hawkish, with the minutes of the last meeting talking of lower tolerance for the slower return of inflation. UK CPOI today could fuel a hike by the BoE as well. But, two central banks are likely to be on hold, with Canada and New Zealand both seeing inflation come in lower than expected. Plus, which well-paid deejay is hanging up his headphones? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, in the world of central banks, markets are waiting in anticipation for a Jerome Powell address later in the week to see if he mirrors the suggestion from others at the Fed that higher yields could negate the need for further hikes in rates. It’s a different message from the BoE’s Huw Pill who said the question of more rises was ‘finely balanced’. Lots of data today, including US retail sales, CPI for NZ and Canada, UK wages data and the RBA minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative, without factoring in the risk of geopolitical uncertainty. The Israel Gaza conflict s now being taken seriously, with sharp rises in oil as questions remain around how much of a regional war could emanate from the unrest. Meanwhile, the question remains about how well contained inflation really is? The Michigan survey showed inflation expectations rising slightly. Rising oil prices will only add to that. Plus, an important week for Australian releases, Tapas talks us through it.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a comfortable life? And, as the size of Australian superannuation assets grows, where do the investments go? Phil talks to Diane Somerville, Principal for Superannuation Consulting at Deloitte Australia about the growth of Australian superannuation, consolidation within the industry and the impacts of COVID. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by diplomatic efforts from the US and China. UK GDP came in weak, and there’s a wealth of China data today. Also on the podcast Phil talks to Jennifer Mackinlay, Austrade’s General Manager for Europe, about how they are flying the flag for the Aussie renewables industry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculating on another one early next year. Meanwhile, there’s very little caution being displayed in the Middle East, with volatility in oil prices as the question remains as to whether Iran will be implicated in any way and face sanctions that could cut global oil supplies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates again this year. JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s still a string chance that another hike will happen, and that the US will face a recession down the track as a consequence. The third surprise, if it happens, is a one trillion Yuan stimulus measure reportedly being considered by China. All, of that, ahead of the US CPI numbers later this week, which may add to the list of surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from more hikes to keeping cash rates where they are. That’s acted as a distraction from the main event, but individual shares match what you’d expect from a war setting, with airlines down, defence stocks up, and the same with oil. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Will it show more resilience that cold further enhance the case for further hikes by the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday surprised many. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the 336k new jobs was well above expectations and pricing for another hike by the Fed this year increased slightly. But a clearer picture of the direction of the Fed can be gauged after the release of US CPI later this week. Canada’s employment numbers told a similar story on Friday, coming in higher than forecast. There will be some unease around today, depending on developments in the confrontation between Hamas and Israel, as to whether Iran becomes embroiled in it all. That could push oil prices higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There are tentative signs that China’s domestic economy is picking up. On The Weekend Edition Sheana Yue from Capital Economics in Singapore says early indications are that the Golden Week this week has seen increased demand for housing and other goods and China could meet is 5% growth target this year. So, is there more reason to be optimistic about the world’s second largest economy? Sheana explains how, in the mid-term, the focus is less on major construction projects and more on IT and green technologies. Listen in to find out what that all means for the Australian economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere has been so much volatility in bond and equity markets lately it’s hard to imagine that the non-farm payrolls data tonight won’t prompt some sort of response. But what are we expecting? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the latest movements, which have been fairly relaxed over the last 24 hours. The Fed’s Mary Daly has suggested that rising 30 year yield shave been doing the work for the Fed, which could reduce the need for another hike. In the UK Bren Broadbent has suggested weaker data could see off any further hikes. And a lot of recent trade data suggests weakening demand, echoed by falling oil prices again today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause today, with yields down a little and a largely positive picture for equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what’s driving this change of sentiment. He doesn’t believe it’s one key thing but it could be down to lower jobs numbers in the latest ADP report, sharp falls in oil prices, no big surprises in the US Services ISM and the danger of a US shutdown back on the list of concerns. All of these factors could lessen the chance of another Fed hike before Christmas, but it’ll be Friday nights non-farm payrolls data that really sets the direction for the start of next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday we asked how much higher US yields could go. The answer today is more than yesterday. Yields pushed higher again, the US dollar gained strength on the back of it, with the Aussie dollar, a day after the RBA kept rates on hold, being punished the most. So, how much higher for Treasury yields now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its not unusual for the 10 year rate to reach the same level as the cash rate, so yields could easily push above 5%. How does the RBA react if stronger yields in the US keep hitting the Aussie dollar? Plus, the significant moves in the Yen today as well. All because the JOLTs data came in higher than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields have pushed higher this morning on the weekend’s news that a shutdown of US government has been pushed back, but the same yawning chasm exists between both parties. Yields have also risen on the latest Manufacturing ISM, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Skye Masters says we are seeing a strong response to any data, as markets look for clues about when rates will be lifted, and how long before they start moving down. Another case in point is today’s rise in UK Gilt yields, as the BoE’s Catherine Mann suggests inflation might be more persistent than their own forecasts. Today Michelle Bullock chairs her first RBA meeting, but there is a low expectation that rates will rise – not yet anyway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th September 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The races is on to meet the 2050 NetZero target, and the 2030 target of 82% renewable energy. Australia isn’t the only country racing for the same finish line. Virginia Christie says the demand for inputs to build the infrastructure, and the expertise needed to manage it, will be inflationary, in the same way the mining boom was. Virginia is a governing body member of WA’s Economic Regulation Authority and, before that, spent many years at the Treasury and the RBA. Both of those bodies face a challenge about how, not only to meet the 2050 target but how to navigate through the unavoidable high inflation environment that precedes it. It’s a thought-provoking episode that’s definitely worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th September 2023US confidence seems to be building, whilst Europe is still in the doldrums. US equities have risen, perhaps helped by the hopes of a visit by President Xi later this year. Europe could have made more of falling inflation in Germany, but is perhaps more concerned about rising debt in Italy. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the differences, which has also seen an increasing spread in yields across the Atlantic. The imminent government shutdown could have a lot to do with it. It’s a busy day for data, including US PCE deflators and, over the weekend, China’s Caixin PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014. Meanwhile, bond yields continue to push higher with little to dissuade investors away from the high for longer mantra. Hence, a town-hall session with Jerome Powell today will attract a lot of interest. Meanwhile, sticky services inflation in Australia yesterday added to the likelihood of an RBA hike in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are still a little directionless, with no substantial or surprising data to evoke any substantial moves in any asset classes. The only real movement is in equities, which continue to fall now the higher for longer message has sunk in. NAB’s Gavin Friend describes it as a wall of worry. But will we see a shift in direction from today through, as the rest of the week is filled with inflation data, starting with Australia. Could the services CPI be enough to force the RBA to make a move? Not just yet, reckons Gavin. Later in the week European CPI will add to the global picture about whether or not we are over the worst of it, before the US core-PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were big moves higher in bond yields overnight, particularly at the long end. It’s been significant bear steepening, says NAB’s Skye Masters, pointing to the hawkish statements from central banks indicating rates will remain at restrictive levels for quite some time.  That’s happening despite more indicators suggesting there is growing weakness in the global economy, but bank boards will want to see reductions in inflation before they change that stance. If the bond markets seem a little directionless right now, maybe inflation numbers later this week will help them see the light.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come. PMIs on Friday continued to show that the US economy seems to be faring better than Europe. But the US soft landing rhetoric is being challenged, with equity markets taking a hit, the automotive workers strike likely to have more impact and the prospect of a government shutdown at the end of the week all the more likely. This week the data in Europe, the US and Australia will be focused on inflation, naturally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.