NAB Morning Call

Thursday 10th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCurrency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbers. That’s helped the Aussie and commodities. Meanwhile, the US is languishing in more evidence of a soft-landing, whilst Germany and most of Europe face a tough future. WE don’t have to wait long to see just how that will be reflected in central bank policies, starting with the FOMC first thing tomorrow. Strong earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expected? It could be a choppy second half to the week. PMIs for Europe came in weaker than expected, and NAB’s Skye Masters says that opens up the question about what the ECB does after this week’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, on a day when we will be festooned with data – the flash PMIs are out for the US, Japan, UK, Euro area, France and Japan. Will they factor into central bank decision making? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment claims last week. NAB’s David de Garis says we shouldn’t get too carried away by one week’s report on jobless claims, which are known for their volatility. UK retail numbers are expected to fall again today, but it’s an economy that keeps surprising us. And Japan’s CPI are out, but are unlikely to change the direction of the BoJ anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were buoyed a little further on the back of UK CPI numbers. Seemingly, if the UK can see core inflation fall a little further than expected then there’s hope for everyone. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, although the fall wasn’t dramatic, it adds to the global view that inflation has peaked and it could fall rapidly from here. New Zealand’s CPI also fell, but Europe’s final CPI read was revised up a little. The RBA will be watching Australia’s employment numbers today, but Tapas warns that the numbers have been subject to some volatility lately so it should be treated with caution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are still excited about the prospect of inflation cooling, with equities pushing higher in the US. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the fall in the headline inflation rate in Canada was also encouraging, but there was a marginal move down in core inflation. There are more inflation numbers today, with CPI for New Zealand and the UK. The UK will be a focus, with its core rate expected to remain stubbornly high. If it does come in lower than expected that will only fuel hopes that we are fighting the final battles for inflation. But a higher reader could see the BoE pull a 50bp hike out of their hat. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy in yesterday’s GDP print. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reinforces the need for targeted fiscal measures to keep the economy on track for the target 5% annual growth. The Aussie moved down lower on the news and could take a further hit if the RBA minutes suggest a delay before they hike again. There was a sprinkling of US data that reinforced the soft-landing scenario, supported by words from Janet Yellen suggesting a recession won’t happen given the strong labour market, with more people returning to work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th JUly 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter all the confidence displayed last week following the lower-than-expected US inflation numbers, markets changing direction on Friday, with the US dollar rising, bond yields also increasing and equities losing some of their vigour. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says in part this is a response to Friday’s consumer inflation expectations survey, mixed with a bit of natural adjustment after so much mid-week exuberance. If the UK’s CPI number this week also comes in lower than expected then we can expect hopes to be raise higher, but that is much less likely to happy. Instead, lets focus on Aussie employment numbers and China’s GDP read, both of which will influence local sentiment and the direction of the AUD, which clearly wants to avoid hitting 70 US cents just yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been no backtracking (so far) on the positive response to the US CPI numbers on Wednesday. US equities rose higher on Thursday, bond yields fell further and so did the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through the market moves, including the rise in the Aussie dollar, despite weaker than expected trade data from China. The UK also had some positive news, with GDP managing to avoid going into the red, just. A quiet end to the week, with Euro area trade data the only notable figures, along with the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was quite a response to the cooling in US inflation last night, pushing US equities to 15-month highs and sending bond yields lower. NAB’s Tapas Strickland delves into the CPI numbers and the market reaction, and what it means for future expectations from the Fed. There’s also discussion about Philip Lowe’s speech yesterday, giving the RBA’s response to suggested reforms for Australia’s central bank. Plus, decisions from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Today’s data highlights include China’s trade balance and the US jobless claims.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome parts of the world are showing clear signs of an economic slowdown. Like, Europe, where the latest ZEW survey shows a deteriorating outlook. In the UK unemployment rose more than expected yesterday, but so did wages. And, as Ken Crompton explains, yesterday’s NAB Business Survey show’s there’s still resilience in the Australian economy, something that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will no doubt talk about in his lunchtime address today. But all eyes will be on the latest CPI numbers for the US tonight, along with rate decisions by the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe speed of China’s economic recovery continues to cause concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the fall in the CNY continues to pull the Aussie dollar lower, even against a weaker US dollar today. US Treasuries have fallen, despite more hawkish talk from Fed speakers overnight, including Loretta Mester saying rates need to be ‘somewhat higher’. Does that sound like more than two hikes? Today the focus will be on the NAB Business Survey locally, and employment data for the UK.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets will have breathed a collective sigh of relief on Friday when the US non-farm payrolls read came in below consensus, after the worrying upside surprise in the earlier ADP employment numbers. NAB’s Skye Masters says it doesn’t change the path for the Fed, though, particularly as the unemployment rate fell in Friday’s numbers. Elsewhere, Janet Yellen continued to sound hawkish, saying the need was to focus on company profits alongside rising wages. US CPI is the key data release this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABClearly markets are very concerned about jobs data being too-strong after a big rise in the latest ADP numbers and in the employment component of the latest services ISM survey. The JOLTs numbers also showed an increase in job openings. All running contrary to the expectations of the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it adds to the overarching theme of resilience in the US economy – a word frequently mentioned in the last Fed minutes. The result has been a sharp rise in bond yields today, drops in equities and a significant fall in the Aussie dollar on the back of the rising risk sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's been a quiet week so far, but that changes today with US Services ISM out later, along with the start of US jobs numbers, including the weekly jobless claims, the JOLTs job openings and the ADP employment release, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. Trepidation ahead of those releases might partially account for the sharp increase in 10 year Treasury yields, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s also linked to forecasts from JP Morgan that UK rates will push as high as seven percent. 10-year Gilt yields also moved up accordingly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA decided to keep rates on hold yesterday, but there are still expectations of two more hikes even though the commentary from the central bank was more about slowdown concerns that the prospect of inflation worsening or taking longer to come down. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this should be taken as a sign that they want to move more slowly, rather than this being the endgame. It’s a clearer picture in NZ though, where a much softer Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has been taken as another indicator that the RBNZ’s job is done. Today, as America returns to work, we get the FOMC minutes and the Caixin services PMI for China.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today. Thank goodness, otherwise it would be a desperately quiet day ahead, with the US on holiday with markets having closed early afternoon on Monday. Data on both sides of the Atlantic pointed to a manufacturing slowdown. The US ISM came in lower than expected and Germany’s PMI was revised down, to a level close to the pandemic low, when workers were in lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says we knew the US manufacturing sector was experiencing a slowdown and the German number can be attributed to lower demand from China. But what of the RBA? Today’s meeting comes a day after surprisingly strong housing data yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABConsumption data and the core-PCE inflation read both came in softer than expected on Friday, after a spate of stronger than expected economic data for the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s not enough in these numbers for the Fed to change its current hawkish path, and markets moved only marginally lower in their expectations of the terminal rate, but what if it is compounded by weaker jobs data and falling wage growth on Friday? It’s all discussed in today’s podcast, plus Europe’s inflation remains sticky and a new head on the way for the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe resilience in the US economy is not giving in. Q1 GDP was revised up, showing 2 percent growth QonQ, whilst consumer spending was up 4.2% on the quarter. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, Q1 was a while ago now, and everyone knew it was a strong quarter. Yet a fall in jobless claims added to the idea that the Fed has more work cut out to bring down inflation, hence a strong move up in bond yields. Australia too is showing resilience, reinforced by yesterday’s retail numbers. And there was no respite in German inflation, with all eyes on the Euro area CPI number out today, along with the US core-PCE. Both could add to central bank woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars yesterday and overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in the Aussie was a combination of the falling CNY and the fall in Australian CPI yesterday, although he cautions into getting too hopeful on the inflation read. At Sintra central bankers stuck with their hawkish sentiment, except Gov Ueda from the BoJ who believed inflation would come down. Concern over Japan’s plight might account for some of the fall in the NZ dollar, although some of it is also being put down in money moving across the Tasman to buy Taylor Swift tickets! CPI for parts of Europe are released today and the Riksbank is the next to lift rates – maybe by as much as 50bps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was strong data from the US overnight, with a lift in durable goods orders, housing sales rising and consumer confidence also strong. NAB’s Skye Masters says the Fed won’t take any delight in these numbers so late in their tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech at Sintra. But maybe the Bank of Canada can take a rest, with core inflation a little lower than expected. Today Australia’s monthly CPI report is out, and the clash of the central bankers on a panel at the close of the Sintra symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe saw no response on the markets to the attempted Russian rebellion, instead all eyes are on Sintra in Portugal, where some of the world’s leading central bankers meet for a chinwag. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we are bound to get something out of it, particularly with Governor Ueda present from the Bank of Japan. Otherwise, a quiet session, although Canada’s inflation number will be important in determining the path for the BoC.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields fell on Friday as PMI reads came in softer than expected. As well as further falls in manufacturing, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the outperformance of services has weakened, particularly in Europe where the Services PMI in France fell into contraction territory. Does this mean central banks will be less hawkish? The Fed’s Bostic said at the weekend that perhaps the FOMC has had its last rise and all that’s needed now is time for the impact of their policies to kick in. It’s a busy week for inflation numbers, including the monthly Australian figure, ahead of the RBA next week. And the shortest civil war ever. Could it pass by with no market impact whatsoever? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of England and the Norges Bank both surprised markets, each raising interest rates by 50 basis points. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the mix of higher UK earnings and stubborn inflation numbers yesterday combined to drive this bigger than expected move. The question is, how much further will they go as the UK fights supply chain and labour supply issues and second-round effects? Certainly Jerome Powell is painting a less volatile path for the US economy, where further rate rises will come slowly, if at all. Yet yields are climbing higher again with all this central bank uncertainty, and oil prices have fallen sharply on an expected decline in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt his testimony to the House Finance Committee overnight Jerome Powell suggested two more rate hikes would be a “pretty good guess”. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets haven’t even fully priced in one more hike for the remainder of this year, so they clearly don’t believe him. It’s a safer bet that the Bank of England will raise twice, or maybe one big hit today, as they prepare to counter yesterday’s inflation numbers that showed the downward movement in the headline rate has stalled, and the core rate continues to push higher. Not a happy place. And they lost at the cricket. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has dipped to 67.8 us cents this morning. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its in part because of the China slowdown story, but also the RBA minutes which were more dovish than expected? Does this mean a pause is more likely, or will recent data suggest otherwise? The RBA’s Michelle Bullock gave a speech yesterday indicating the importance of seeing unemployment getting back up to a non-inflationary level, suggesting more emphasis will be placed on jobs data. The UK gets its latest CPI data today ahead of the BoE tomorrow. An upside surprise could mean a 50bp rise by the UK’s central bank. And Jerome POweell spends a day in front of the US House Financial Services Panel later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are a couple of days out from the next Bank of England meeting, where a rate hike of at least 25bp is expected, with more to come – but could it be 50? So, is there a danger of doing too much? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether the aggressive signalling from central banks is intended to modify behaviour without expecting to go quite as far as they are suggesting? The mood overnight was subdued, wit the US on holiday, but impacted a little by more cautious expectations for the Chinese recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US on holiday, very little new data and not much out on Friday, today should be a very quiet day. But, as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, that doesn’t mean there won ‘t be fireworks later. Jerome Powell fronts up to two days of testimony, and the Bank of England will lift rates shortly after receiving the latest CPI print. Given a weakening US dollar could we see further strength in the Aussie, plus a brief discussion about an AFR article this morning suggesting the RBA might be preparing for QT. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB hit expectations with their rate rise overnight, says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Markets have responded to Christine Lagarde’s clear expectation that there will be another rise at the next meeting. So, we have a slowing economy (technically in recession) with a central bank lifting rates. In the US, where the Fed has also signalled one or two more rises, we saw weaker data overnight, raising the question, will they actually have to go that far? Whilst in Australia the tight labour market – made tighter with higher job numbers yesterday – adds to the challenge for the RBA. And in China, the slowdown is set to promote more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Could that help push the Aussie dollar back into the seventies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFew will have been surprised by the decision of the FOMC to pause interest rates, after 10 successive hikes. But they have also signalled that rates could rise as much as 50 basis points, with one member wanting to see rates go over 6 percent. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about the decision and take-outs from the press conference that followed. One thing is clear, although the pause was a unanimous decision the dot plots show the board members have wildly different expectations of where to go from here. The ECB is not ready to pause yet. And the next move by the RBA will be to some extent impacted by today’s employment numbers.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th JUne 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe CPI numbers from the US yesterday showed core inflation is roughly in-line with expectations, raising hopes that the FOMC will pause rates at their meeting on Thursday. Shares are higher in anticipation. It’s a different story in the UK tough, where a tight labour market continues to cause problems. Yesterday’s employment data saw unemployment fall, whilst wages increased further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says two-year yields in the UK shot above the level reached during the brief Liz Truss premiership, when the BoE had to step in to protect pension funds. Somewhere in between, sits Australia, where yesterday’s NAB Business Survey with clear signs of a slowing economy. But, of course, that’s good for controlling inflation.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a busy week ahead, with the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan all meeting, and not a clear picture of what any will do in terms of rate rises. The Fed’s decision might be partially impacted by US CPI numbers out today. NAB’s David de Garis says there is talk of a skip, rather than a pause. In other words, one meeting missed so economic indicators can play catch-up before the Fed returns on its upwards rate path. Meanwhile, there seems to be an increasing amount of softer data, suggesting slowdowns are starting to occur. It’ll be interesting to see if UK jobs numbers fall back because, despite concerns about UK growth, employment numbers have been holding up. Is tis the day they turn? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th JUne 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar has fallen a fair bit, with bond yields down and equities boosted, following a higher than expected jobless claims number in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the markets are reversing some of the early responses to the double shock of rate rises by the RBA and the Bank of Canada. Clearly, the job claims number was used as an excuse to show an economy slowing. But is it an over-reaction? It is if other markets show an equal degree of economic slowdown, which arguably, Europe has done by recording a technical recession in the latest GDP revision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHot on the heels of the RBA, the Bank of Canada also lifted interest rates yesterday against market expectations. JB Were’s Sally Auld says markets are having to adjust to the new reality, that central banks aren’t done yet. That’s certainly been reflected in bond yields, rising sharply in the US, Canada and Europe. Philip Lowe yesterday did nothing to talk down the likelihood of another rise, pointing to rising wages against falling productivity as a problem that has to be overcome. China’s trade data has shown a big fall in exports, which has seen the CNY down against the US dollar, which Sally says challenges any potential rise in the Aussie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th JUne 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA lifted interest rates yesterday, against the prevalent market expectation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was always a question of “when and not if”, but now there are expectations of at least one follow-up hike at some point this year. The reason, obviously is the central bank’s concerns over persistently high inflation, which OECD numbers yesterday showed was a persistent theme across the developed world. So, the questions ofr today – what will Philip Lowe say at his speech (with Q&A session) in Sydney this morning, and what will the Bank of Canada do later. Their decision is also finely balanced. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's a line-ball call, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as to whether the RBA will lift rates or not today. Markets have priced in a follow-up to the May rise, the question is whether it happens today or in a subsequent meeting. We look at the scenarios on today’s podcast. Plus, a weaker services sector in the US. Does that change expectations for the Fed? And oil responds to the OPEC+ cuts by Saudi Arabia, but the gains don’t last long. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 5th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith debt ceiling concerns taken away, its back to worrying about inflation and wondering how far central banks will push. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s still likely thew RBA will pause tomorrow, but a higher-than-expected rise in award wages in Australia on Friday have increased the chance that there will be a hike as soon as tomorrow. The Bank of Canada faces the same dilemma, hike again or hold and see? Oil is expected to rise today after the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, when Saudi Arabia volunteered a million barrels a day cut in production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's surprising that the markets have reacted so sharply to the passage of the debt ceiling bill. NAB’s David de Garis says there was always an outside chance something would go awry, but it’s already passed through the House and should clear the Senate today. Now the focus is on jobs in the US, with non-farm payrolls tonight. Wage pressure will be a significant focus, whilst at home the consequences of the Fair Work Commission’s award wage decision will be an important factor in determining the rate of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.