NAB Morning Call

Monday 20th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean we see bond yields falling further and watered down expectations for central bank hikes, including the BoE and Fed this week? How can central banks tread the path between fuelling more banking uncertainty and pursuing their path for controlling inflation? The first central banker to face such difficult questions could be the RBA’s Christopher Kent, first thing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. Hence, bond yields and equities have come bouncing back overnight. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are less sure of a rate hike from the RBA next month, even though Australia reported a strong increase in employment yesterday and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAnother day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s unlikely to stop the ECB from pushing ahead with a rate rise later today, but banking uncertainty has certainly switched attitudes in the US on where the Fed is heading, with growing expectations that they will start cutting rates in the second half of the year, possibly up to 100bp before Christmas. The Fed’s job has been made a little easier with softer data overnight, including a flat PPI read for February. Locally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is the focus today whilst elsewhere the question is, what happens next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI and last week’s US payrolls there would have been every reason to expect a 50bp hike next week, but markets seem more set on 25bp. Today’s retail numbers will play into that decision. Sally says the RBA is lucky that it’s next meeting is not so imminent, but yesterday’s NAB business survey showed labour costs picking up a little, which is a concern. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some analysts predicting an end to rises, at least for now, from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its likely they will push ahead with their fight against inflation, but on a slower path. It’s still possible that the ECB will lift rates by 50bp this week. But what if the US inflation read today comes in stronger than expected? How do markets react then? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So how does the Fed respond to this shock to the system, which has been facilitated in part by rising bond yields. NAB’S Tapas Strickland reckons the Fed will be more cautious with future hikes and a 50bp hike next week is looking less likely. The collapse overtook any interest in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which showed an upside surprise in employment numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate. The surprise from the Bank of Japan was no surprise, with Kuroda leaving quietly with no change in policy. Meanwhile, the PBoC is sticking with Governor Yi at the helm, but possibly only fore a few months. There’s a bit of uncertainty to be navigated through, it seems.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs report, which showed a high number of layoffs in January and February. They clearly shrugged off the ADP umbers from a day earlier, which came in stronger than expected. Hopes of an end to rising inflation will have been helped by a negative PPI read from China. The Bank of Japan meets today, for the last time for Governor Kuroda. There’s been talk about a last-minute surprise, but could the surprise actually be no surprise at all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th March 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHaving pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. Meanwhile European inflation was higher than expected yet it curiously wasn’t reflected in equities overnight. US Services ISM will be the key number to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session of mixed news overnight. US 10 year treasury yields have hit 4 percent as expectations continue to mount for higher rates for longer. In China the PMIs came in higher than expected. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we are seeing the same picture we saw in western economies as they came out of lockdown, with a faster bounce back than anticipated. In Australia the GDP data showed a softening of demand, but yields reacted to a rise in the monthly CPI number. In the UK the central bank governor suggested there was not necessarily any need to raise rates, but the mood is very different in Europe with the region’s inflation number expected to kick higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with the ECB’s Philip Lane talking up more rate hikes for longer. So how far will they go? Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has ground to a halt, and NAB has downgraded its forecast for Australian GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the start of a better future for UK-EU trade down the track. Meanwhile, US equities have bounced back today, even though expectations of a higher Fed terminal rate have settled in to place. Is it those buying the dip or the return of the soft-landing brigade? The drip-feed of EU inflation data will be the focus today, ahead of the full number tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January numbers for prices and consumption out tonight. To add to the US woes, jobless claims fell last week adding to a string of data suggesting the tightness in the labour market is taking a long time to ease. We’re a week away from non-farm payrolls. Remember the impact last time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s not a lot that’s new on the FOMC minutes out this morning, according to NAB’s David de Garis. Several members had talked of higher rate rises, but there wasn’t much too much for investors to change the expected path of hikes this year. But it might be a different story for the RBA with Australian wage inflation lower than expected yesterday. Meanwhile, wages are rising in Japan, higher than the rate of inflation adding extra pressure on the BoJ. And the UK government might increase the rate of public sector pay to try and break the strike deadlock the country is facing. It’s been a wage where wages have been front and centre.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest PMI data has shown more resilience in the global economy, with service sector reads significantly exceeding expectations in Europe, the UK and the United States. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about how this will impact central bank decisions, with bond yields rising on these latest findings. Also, the latest inflation numbers from Canada, fighting talk from Putin and Biden, and could the UK be on the brink of a meaningful Northern Ireland border solution? Ahead today Australian wages data and the RBNZ rate decision.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US equity and bond markets closed for President’s Day, trade was thin today and movement was slight. But, with the President choosing to spend his day in Ukraine and China reportedly ready to supply arms to Russia, could a bounce back in world trade be an optimistic outlook? NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks trough the days new releases, including PMIs for Europe, the UK and US, as well as inflation numbers for Canada. Could we see a strong reaction if the Canada numbers are an upside surprise. Plus, will today’s minutes shed any new light on the thinking at the RBA, or did Philip Lowe say it all last week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABExpect a quiet trading day today with the US enjoying Presidents Day and not much in the way of data releases. Still, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, there’s plenty to look out for later in the week, including the RBNZ’s expected 50 bp rate hike, January’s global PMI numbers, Australian wages and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In the meantime, the question is, have yields peaked? Friday saw 10-year Treasury yields pull back a little, although 2 years are clinging to 4.6% and six month treasury notes sat above 5% for most of the day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields pushed higher overnight as producer prices came in with a surprise month on month rise, whilst weekly jobs data shows only slight moves in the easing of the labour market. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s nothing to distract from the hawkish path being taken by the Fed, that was reinforced by Loretta Mester overnight, who expects rates to exceed 5 percent and stay there for some time. Meanwhile, in Australia yesterday’s employment numbers might be a headache for Philip Lowe when he faces questions in front of House of Reps economics committee. He is bound to be asked why, given such a fall in jobs, the RBA wouldn’t ease of on its rate path. But, as we discuss today, yesterday’s numbers might be a little misleading. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail numbers for January were strong yesterday, giving no reason for markets to assume the Fed will move from its expected path of hikes following non-farm payrolls earlier in the month. At the same time industrial production was down, but the Empire State manufacturing number was better than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a lot of these variations are weather related, alongside other factors, such as retail inventories. Hence, markets are struggling to get a coherent picture on the real strength of the economy. Australia meanwhile has seen discretionary spending holding up and an expectation that employment numbers will pick up again in figures out today. So, the message seems to be, resilient economies with inflation perhaps taking a bit longer than expected to slow down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation was shown to be moving down slower than many had hoped, sending bond yields higher. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it cements in expectations for two more 25 basis point rate hikes in March and May. NAB has also announced a revised rates call for the RBA, which is discussed on today’s podcast. Plus, employment refusing to move down in the UK or across the OECD. And US retail numbers today are expected to show growth, despite the squeeze from the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th Februarey 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI is released later today and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we can expect a market reaction whichever way it comes out. Certainly, markets are divided, with bond yields rising today suggesting rising expectations for central bank hikes, whereas equities are also up suggesting an easier path. That expectation of a path with less rate hikes comes from a New York Fed Inflation Survey which showed that household income is expected to fall this year, which it is assumed will ease price pressures. But we’ve also seen evidence of US retail spending picking up post-Christmas. Clearly opinion is divided on today’s number so, as Rodrigo puts it, ‘expect fireworks’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten just about everywhere that central banks will push faster and further on rates. As NAB’s Skye Masters discusses today on the podcast, this hawkish sentiment wasn’t helped by employment numbers for Canada on Friday which, like the US the week before, came out much higher than expected. Central banks continue to be focused on the data, but there’s not much of that today. Instead markets will be jockeying for position ahead of US CPI tomorrow, the one number that really counts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe 2s10s curve inversion increased further today, now the most inverted since 1981. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the blowout jobs numbers and ISM services read were a shot across the bows last week that is still reverberating in the markets. In the UK though, Bank of England members were in front of a parliamentary committee giving mixed messages about their future direction, from inflation concerns to worries about going too far and worsening the cost of living crisis. Today the RBA publishes the Statement of Monetary policy which, Gavin says, should add some colour to this week’s decision and the potential for two further hikes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been quiet overnight news-wise, but a session rich with central bank speakers. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the main news came out of the ECB, where a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting seems nailed on, with talk now of another 50 possible in the May meeting as well. In the US equities have taken a hit, as expectations rise for more hikes from the Fed, with some expecting rates to touch 6% this year, although that’s not suggested by anyone in the central bank just yet. Today Germany’s delayed inflation numbers are out and will undoubtedly impact the Euro area CPI released last week. And the weekly jobless claims numbers tonight will be studied as some start to wonder whether last week’s non-farm payrolls was a bit of an outlier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t too much new from Jerome Powell when he was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal’s David Rubenstein, but that didn’t stop a rally in bonds for a short spell. It was followed by a swift reversal, perhaps on the realisation that he hadn’t actually offered anything new. NAN’s Rodrigo Catril says, nonetheless, it was a refreshingly open discussion reflecting the transparency of the Fed these days. At home a more hawkish RBA has seen bond yields rise sharply, with the expectation of more than one rise still to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have had a chance to digest last Friday’s US jobs numbers and are clearly expecting a more hawkish stance by the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about the potential for a higher terminal rate from the Fed and a more aggressive stance by the RBA. The expectation is that today they will lift rates by 25 basis points, but there’s the outside chance they will go further and a reduced chance of them pausing after this meeting. Tomorrow morning the Fed’s Jerome Powell is talking and its unlikely he’ll do much to soften the market’s stance.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US payrolls numbers on Friday showed strong jobs growth, which surprised markets pushing bond yields higher and weakening the US dollar. And NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the ISM Services number adding to the view that the Fed might have to do more to contain US inflation. Could we see two more 25 bp hikes form the Fed before they pause? And does thus change the stance of central banks globally, including the RBA tomorrow. The expectation is there will be a 25-basis point hike tomorrow and again in March, but could the terminal rate be higher given the prospect of global inflation proving harder to contain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite central bankers (the Fed the ECB and BoE) continuing to say there’s more work to be done, there has been more focus on Jerome Powell’s line that “the disinflation process has started” and Christine Lagarde declaring “inflation risks in Europe are more balanced”. Where next depends on the data, of course, which will make tonight’s payroll numbers from the US important, along with the US ISM services index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US the Fed has announced the expected 25 basis point rate hike, but this year’s prevalent hope of a soft landing seems to have diminished somewhat. The US ISM manufacturing number was lower than expected, whilst the ADP employment numbers showed less jobs, alongside more job openings in the latest JOLTs numbers. NAB’s David de Garis is asked whether that all points to an environment where inflation falls more slowly. Certainly, core inflation is holding up more than expected in Europe and data from Zealand yesterday showed that labour costs there are still high. So, central banks will think they still have much to do, which will be evidenced by 50bp rises by the ECB and Bank of England over the next 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than a day away from the next FOMC meeting, with the strong expectation that rates will rise in the US by 25 basis points. But in light of recent data suggesting inflation could be slowing, including last night’s wage price index, NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s increasing speculation that the Fed will pause after this meeting. Certainly the mood in markets today is positive, with increased hopes that the global economy will see a soft landing. That’s what was suggested in the latest IMF forecasts, with the notable exception of the UK. Strong earnings results and outlooks have also added to the mood. And there’s a lot more to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSpain’s inflation numbers provided an unpleasant surprise – core inflation has risen to 7.5%. Meanwhile Germany saw GDP fall in Q4 (QonQ). If these numbers are mirrored across Europe the cocktail of rising inflation and falling output is a challenging one for the ECB. NAB’s Taylor Nugent is asked if we should start talking about stagflation again. Also today we get to see the size of China’s post-lockdown bounce back, the impact of early Christmas shopping on Australia’s December retail numbers and, importantly, ahead of the FOMC, the wage price index for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's a busy week ahead for central banks, with the Fed, BoE and ECB all meeting to push their rates higher. To add to the potential volatility there’s a swag of high profile corporate earnings results in the US too. But tech stocks have been pushing higher and higher so far this month, presumably o the assumption that central banks will ease off on rates soon as economic indicators start to soften. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says age inflation numbers I the US will be of particular importance this week, as service inflation is taking more time to slow than goods inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA strong GDP read from the US, together with with falling prices, provided grounds for optimism in markets overnight, particularly equities that were buoyed also by a strong earnings result from Tesla. But NAB’s David de Garis says it’s not all good news. Investment in equipment was down and durable goods orders, if you take out a splurge in aircraft orders, fell in the month. And the weekly job numbers suggest the labour market remains as tight as ever. Meanwhile, what must the RBA be thinking after Wednesday’s Australian inflation number, coming in much higher than expected? Perhaps today’s producer prices will show that things are moving faster in the right direction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares have been shaky overnight, in the runup to earnings results and on the back of mixed economic data. JB Were’s Sally Auld discusses the latest PMI data, which again shows a recession risk for the US, more hope for Europe and a dismal outlook for the UK. The NAB Business Syurvey yesterday showed that business pessimism is not reflected by a fall in business conditions, including profitability. But there was also a sign that inflation might have peaked – something that could be confirmed in Australia’s CPI numbers out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was lighter trade overnight, with little in the way of news and China on holiday. The Aussie dollar was the standout performer in currencies, with NAB’s David de Garis suggesting this reflects the optimistic tone, reflected in US equities, with a substantial rise in the NASDAQ. Today the focus is on PMIs, which will give a clear indication of the expected recovery in Europe versus the US. In Australia the NAB Business Survey this morning will be watched to see whether the falling business confidence last time has translated into a drop in business conditions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we enter the Year of the Rabbit the big question is, how big will the bounce back be in China? Could it push commodity prices higher and delay the slowdown in global inflation, as suggested by EBC’S Christine Lagarde on Friday? As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, this is a big week for inflation data, including the US PCE deflator and CPI numbers for Australia and New Zealand. Last week’s soft employment numbers have already lefty many suggesting the RBA will be more dovish in its approach, with a significant drop in bond yields. So, what impact will the latest inflation numbers have this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday January 20th 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a strong response to the lower-than-expected employment numbers yesterday, with 10 year bond yields falling more than 20 basis points. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this was an overreaction, because unemployment remains low and it won’t allay any of the RBA’s concerns about the tightness of the labour market, or encourage them to change their path on rate rises. No change was also the message from the ECB, reinforced by the minutes of the last meeting, and a speech at Davos by Christine Lagarde. There’s been little market reaction to the US debt ceiling. We’ve been here before and know that Republicans will use it as leverage against the BIden government, but all will be sorted by June. Today Japan’s CPI will reinforce the need for the BoJ to change policy direction at some point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed sharply lower overnight, despite weaker data that some could argue would support a pause in Fed rate hikes. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, central bank speakers are arguing that there will be no deviation from earlier guidance. That’s the view in the US, as well as in Europe, despite the Bloomberg report earlier in the week suggesting otherwise. In the UK inflation fell, but not by much and wage pressures continue. In Japan the BoJ is continuing to pursue its yield curve control policy and markets will lump it till they see the flavour of Kuroda’s replacement. Locally, Australian employment data is out today, with the focus on any glimmer of reduction in the tightness of the labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose overnight with the ZEW survey of analysts suggesting a more positive outlook and reports that the ECB might slow down its path of hikes. That’s in contrast to the US where the NY Empire State Manufacturing index came in much lower than expected, reported company earnings were mixed and equities were struggling to make gains. NAB’s Skye Masters says whatever the news lately US 10 year treasury yields are sticking close to 3.5% and doesn’t seem to be breaking lower, so data that will influence the Fed’s decision-making is crucial right now. Meanwhile, the BoJ is the focus today – and nobody is quite sure what they’ll do. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuersday 17th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan meets tomorrow with a question mark over the action they’ll take, if any. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there will be some changes as the bank faces the potential risk of increasing inflation. The Bank of England will be eyeing up UK employment data today, with Andrew Bailey already warning that the tight labour market and continued strike action could delay the reduction in prices. But couldn’t higher rates from the bank add to public sector wage demands? A slew of activity data from China today, and a multi-year high for the Aussie today – it touched 70 us cents for the ifrst time since August 2021. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a quiet start to the week, but markets in the US finished last week assuming that inflation has peaked and the Fed will go no further than a couple of 25 basis point hikes. The increasing expectation is that the US will weather the inflation curse without going into recession. That seems less likely for the UK, even with a surprise (but marginal) increase in monthly GDP for November. Today on the podcast NAB’s Taylor Nugent looks at the week ahead, including the possibility of a widening of the tolerance band in the Bank of Japan’s yield control curve, and Australian employment data later in the week – the ongoing tightness of the labour market will be very influential in future RBA rate decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs expected, US inflation numbers have lowered, but Fed speakers have been quick to point out that there’s still more work to be done, with further hikes, even if 50 or 75 basis point rises are not on the cards. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market response and expectations for where inflation and interest rates go from here. Meanwhile, a fall in China’s producer prices bodes well for helping inflation fall, whilst Australia has seen a big drop in job ads, likely to ease the influence of wage pressure on inflation. Markets will now look to the US earning season to answer the next big question, ‘what about growth?’ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers are out today and the expectation is that they will fall. The markets, it seems, have already decided that inflation has peaked. Today on the podcast we ask, are we over the worst of it? In Australia hard times haven’t really started. NAB’s David de Garis talks about how we will weather the storm better than most, with the retail sector showing massive resilience (evidenced by yesterday’s data), tightness in the labour market likely to be moderated by increased immigration and the re-opening of China ready to ease supply chains. Nonetheless, NAB expects further rate rises from the RBA at the next two meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe year has started on a fairly optimistic tone, with US bond yields falling on expectations that the Fed might have to do less, leading to a fall in the US dollar. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, the major beneficiary of all this has been the Aussie dollar, up 1.3% so far this year. Hopes of more growth from China, with the zero COVID policy abandoned and the population moving quickly to herd immunity. But global optimism should be tempered with a reality check – COVID is still a concern and the war rages on in Ukraine. The ultimate reality check will be US CPI later this week? Has it peaked and, if so, how much has it fallen by?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan has broadened the tolerance for its yield control curve target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it surprised markets because Governor Kuroda had previously stated they wouldn’t be doing that. So, why the change and why has it had such an impact on global bond and currency markets? The Australian dollar fell against a US dollar which was itself falling, in part because of the RBA minutes yesterday. We look at what was discussed. And in New Zealand, business confidence hit an all-time low (well since the survey started in the eighties). Also, in this last edition of 2022 Ray explains why this was a bad year for risk parity strategies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are only five sleeps to Christmas, but central banks are still cramming in what they can to position markets for the start of 2023. The ECB is ramping up its hawkish messaging, whilst the Fed continues to deny that they will start reversing rates next year, even as the housing market struggles. The RBA, meanwhile, is giving very little away, which is why there is more than the usual interest in the minutes of the last meeting out today. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets with a likely review of their monetary approach and China is promising targeted monetary policy next year.  NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through all of that in the penultimate Morning Call of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.