NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 16th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs the US careering towards a debt default? There’s only a couple of weeks until the point at which Janet Yellen has warned the US government could run out of money. But Biden and McCarthy are talking, so there is hope of a resolution. But NAB’s Skye Masters says its drawing a long bow to assume the slight increase in confidence in markets today is being driven by hopes on those talks.  It was simply a session light on significant data to drive markets in any particular direction. It’s a different picture in the next 24 hours though, with a swathe of data, and growing uncertainty as each day passes without a debt ceiling resolution. In amongst the releases today, the RBA minutes, which will help explain the surprise decision to lift rates at the last meeting, with NAB now forecasting one more hike this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was further nervousness in the markets at the end of last week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a chunk of it came from the University of Michigan’s survey, which saw consumers raising the level they expected inflation to be at in five years’ time. It seemed an oversized response to a modest increase, but it is a statistic that the Fed likes to keep an eye on. The response could well be overturned by events this week, which include US retail sales, Canada’s CPI, UK labour market data and Australia’s wage price index and employment numbers. A busy week ahead, but a quiet start today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflation number later in the month. Meanwhile, further signs of softness in the US – where jobless claims rose more than expected – and China, where loans are well below expectations. Banks continue to add to the uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at a glacial pace. It’ll be a different story for the BoE this evening, with a 25bp rise expected, but how many more to follow? The ECB is also continuing its campaign of hawkish talk, with 4 more speakers in the next 24 hours. With a Fed on hold and the BoE and ECB still lifting rates, what does this do to the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labour market is easing at a glacial speed. Meanwhile equities are pushing higher helped by the latest earnings results, with Intel and Amazon the latest to report strong results. The focus today will be on how European GDP compares to the US slowdown, and the detail of the US employment cost index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the banking sector, but tightening credit conditions will weigh on the broader economy. Hence, big falls in oil today, which was one of two factors weighing on the Aussie dollar. The other, of course, is the weaker than expected inflation read for Australia yesterday. Could a more dovish RBA against a hawkish Fed see the Aussie fall further?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets took a hit after yesterday’s earnings results from First Republic Bank. JBWere’s Sally Auld says most of the movement overnight can be put down to the uncertainty this has created. The expectation that bank uncertainty had disappeared after just a few days was clearly a little optimistic. Softer economic data from the US overnight also dampened enthusiasm. But Microsoft and Alphabet shares kicked higher in after-hours trade, thanks to higher-than-expected earnings results. Today the focus is on Australia’s inflation numbers and what it means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABShould we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and strong US and European GDP numbers this week. Locally, Australia’s inflation will attract the most attention. US earnings season is in full swing too, with some big tech names reporting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment, manufacturing an housing data from the US. Couple that with falling inflation in New Zealand and the question has to be asked, at least for today, how far do central banks really need to go? We’ll get an update on jJust how soft global economies are today with PMIs for the US, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th April 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other asset classes have seen very little movement, with the Fed’s Beige book describing a US economy that is, at best, stagnant. The proposed new structure of the RBA will be a focus today – we discuss the proposal in today’s podcast – along with NZ CPI out this morning.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFreedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Canada, employment numbers rise in the UK and the RBA minutes yesterday suggest a rate rise could still be in play next week. Central banks plan to do a lot more it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a positive 10.8, driven by strong forward orders. But there’s a lot of volatility in regional manufacturing reports, so will it stick? Today the RBA releases minutes of the last meeting and there’s a swathe of China data to absorb.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves so far, whilst Raphael Bostic seems happy to pause after one more hike. Yet last week Golsbee and Daly were wondering whether any further hikes were needed at all. Locally, NZ inflation this week will be one highlight, and could be a useful guide for the direction of prices in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. There’s also discussion about the UK’s stagnant outlook, with GDP flatlining and mortgage defaults rising. Hopes of easing inflation I the US were helped by a fall in producer prices. Maybe increased exports from China will help too. Perhaps a weakening in consumer demand through today’s US retail sales will add to that picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also, more soft data from the US and further signs that non-farm payrolls on Friday could show a move south, easing pressure on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile, we’re confident the RBNZ will lift rates today. Also today, further signs of softening in the US, including a fall in job openings, with more US employment data out later tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, yields starting falling as US manufacturing data signified a slowdown in the sector, with a fall in the employment index suggesting that maybe non-farm payrolls on Friday will show an easing in the jobs market and help ease future inflation pressures. The key event today of course, is the RBA meeting, where NAB is still forecasting a 25 bp rise. If it doesn’t happen today, it’ll happen next month is the expectation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy costs will be in need of a revision today, as OPEC+ announce a daily 1.2 million barrel cut in oil production from next month. The announcement was unexpected. It’ll add pressure to European economies, where core inflation rose slightly last month. On todays podcast we look ahead to the RBA and RBNZ this week, and the consequences of the Aston by-election result over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBanking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if you listen to the likes of Isabel Schnabel at the ECB or Andrew Bailey at the BoE. But markets are still pricing in cuts later this year. NAB's Ray Attrill talks through why the discrepancy between central banks and markets and makes a bold prediction on what the RBA will do next week. Today’s retail numbers and inflation later in the week could still influence the outcome, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor, says not. Meanwhile, central banks are determined to continue on their counter-inflationary path of rate hikes, with some I the Fed expecting a few more of them before they are finished. So, what of the RBA? We get the monthly inflation data and retail sales this week, but it seems likely they will raise next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down, it’s still very high. He suggests it could serve as a reminder that the RBA also has to keep its eye on the ball. Only significant signs of a weakening economy will change the attitude of central banks, who have separated out their monetary goals from banking pressures. Todays PMIs will give a snapshot of how some of the leading economies are faring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil, will do some of the work for them. Next, it’s the Bank of England. It seemed likely that there would be no move but could that change with a surprise increase in UK inflation announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are also investigating ways to remove the upper cap on deposits covered by FDIC insurance. That’s all helped to boost equities and drive strong increases in bond yields. The question remains, has there been any lasting impact on the speed and destination for central banks? A 25 basis point hike is well-priced for the FOMC tomorrow, but the revised dot-plots will be of more interest. Catch all the news on that in tomorrow morning’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there seems to be some acceptance that this is a Swiss-only story, and AT1 bondholders would count before equities in the pecking order in the case of other banking right downs. So, now, as markets seem to be accepting that the banking crisis is contained, does that mean central banks – like the Fed this week – can push higher on rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean we see bond yields falling further and watered down expectations for central bank hikes, including the BoE and Fed this week? How can central banks tread the path between fuelling more banking uncertainty and pursuing their path for controlling inflation? The first central banker to face such difficult questions could be the RBA’s Christopher Kent, first thing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. Hence, bond yields and equities have come bouncing back overnight. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are less sure of a rate hike from the RBA next month, even though Australia reported a strong increase in employment yesterday and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAnother day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s unlikely to stop the ECB from pushing ahead with a rate rise later today, but banking uncertainty has certainly switched attitudes in the US on where the Fed is heading, with growing expectations that they will start cutting rates in the second half of the year, possibly up to 100bp before Christmas. The Fed’s job has been made a little easier with softer data overnight, including a flat PPI read for February. Locally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is the focus today whilst elsewhere the question is, what happens next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI and last week’s US payrolls there would have been every reason to expect a 50bp hike next week, but markets seem more set on 25bp. Today’s retail numbers will play into that decision. Sally says the RBA is lucky that it’s next meeting is not so imminent, but yesterday’s NAB business survey showed labour costs picking up a little, which is a concern. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some analysts predicting an end to rises, at least for now, from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its likely they will push ahead with their fight against inflation, but on a slower path. It’s still possible that the ECB will lift rates by 50bp this week. But what if the US inflation read today comes in stronger than expected? How do markets react then? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So how does the Fed respond to this shock to the system, which has been facilitated in part by rising bond yields. NAB’S Tapas Strickland reckons the Fed will be more cautious with future hikes and a 50bp hike next week is looking less likely. The collapse overtook any interest in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which showed an upside surprise in employment numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate. The surprise from the Bank of Japan was no surprise, with Kuroda leaving quietly with no change in policy. Meanwhile, the PBoC is sticking with Governor Yi at the helm, but possibly only fore a few months. There’s a bit of uncertainty to be navigated through, it seems.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs report, which showed a high number of layoffs in January and February. They clearly shrugged off the ADP umbers from a day earlier, which came in stronger than expected. Hopes of an end to rising inflation will have been helped by a negative PPI read from China. The Bank of Japan meets today, for the last time for Governor Kuroda. There’s been talk about a last-minute surprise, but could the surprise actually be no surprise at all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th March 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHaving pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. Meanwhile European inflation was higher than expected yet it curiously wasn’t reflected in equities overnight. US Services ISM will be the key number to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.