NAB Morning Call

Monday 19th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t much risk appetite at the end of the week, after a hawkish Fed and the same from the ECB. It still seems markets doubt the Fed will go all the way to 5.1% and are looking for reasons to assume they will relent earlier. NAB’s Skye Masters says the inversion in the Treasury yield curve will remain for some time, but wonders how much of this is being drive by the after effects of QE. Meanwhile China is planning a major comeback next year, with one official at their Central Economic Work Conference last week describing a J-curve recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the UK and Europe weather a cold snap, central banks are heating up their rhetoric as the fight to cool inflation. On today’s podcast JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses the unexpectedly hawkish stance taken by the ECB, suggesting it was possibly a trade-off from pushing rates higher this time round. The Bank of England was split three ways on what to do, but ultimately lifted rates by the same amount – 50 basis points. We also look at moves by the Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Meanwhile, Australia’s strong employment numbers add further pressure on the RBA , whilst the RBNZ next year has to tackle inflation in an economy that refuses to slow down. And lots of PMI numbers today, just to add to the information overload a week out from Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets weren’t surprised by the FOMC raising rates by 50 basis points this morning – a unanimous decision by the board. But members are more divided on where to go next, with the Fed now predicting a median rate of 5.1 percent by the end of next year, even with talk of inflation having peaked. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this rise in the dot plot is based on continued labour market tightness. It could be a different picture for the Bank of England later today, and the ECB where wage inflation is not such a concern. In a feverishly busy day we also get Australian employment numbers, NZ GDP, China’s retail sales, industrial production and capex investment, and the Philly Fed’s business outlook. It’s the last gasp before Christmas! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI numbers came in lower than anticipated, leading to the inevitable question about whether inflation has peaked, just in time for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting? The market response was swift fall in two-year Treasury yields and a rise in equities, although much of those gains has been pared back since. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it creates a challenge for Jerome Powell, who will want to acknowledge the good news but remind markets there is still a long way to go. So, perhaps, tomorrow, he will be the Grinch who stole Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities have bounced back, but the rise in the VIX index, which measures market volatility, is perhaps a better measure of where we are ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. It’s risen, highlighting uncertainty about how far the US central bank will go. Nick Timiraos describes a very divided Fed in the Wall Street Journal this morning. Also today, NAB’s Ray Attrill takes us through yesterday’s UK GDP numbers, with employment data out later ahead of the BoE meeting later in the week. Plus, the NAB Business Survey out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big week for central banks – the Fed, the BoE and the ECB amongst them. Plus US inflation numbers. There’s some hope that the US will head off a hard landing, with inflation expectations falling in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday, although producer prices showed a different story, adding to the US risk-off sentiment at the end of the week. So we can expect another volatile few days, but who will be the winners and the losers? NAB’s Tapas Strickland provides valuable insights to guide you into this busy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a bit more of a risk-on attitude in the US overnight, with equities rising for the first time in five days. Part of the reason could be a rise in jobless claims. But NAB’s David de Garis says you’d be clutching at straws to assume that means lower inflation and a less aggressive Fed. It’s just part and parcel of the volatility ahead of a bumper week next week, with US CPI, the FOMC meeting and the ECB. The last blast before Christmas. Equally as unexplained is the slow glide down in oil, when there’s every reason for it to be heading the other way. An oil leak on the Keystone pipeline saw WTI prices rise for a while, but they didn’t hold for long.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields fell further overnight as US wages data showed slower growth than anticipated, adding to hopes that the Fed won’t be as aggressive as they’ve been letting on when it comes to future hikes. NAB’s Gavin Friend says that does seem to be the mood of the moment. Whilst the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points – when many had considered 25 was likely – it was a dovish rise, with suggestions that they won’t be doing too much more. The RBA is moving in smaller increments, and whilst a pause is not on the cards for the next few months, it could be that they too won’t move far beyond March, with Australia potentially leading the way in bounceback-ability, says Gavin. Further reopening news from China helped with this sentiment.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS and European equities have taken another hit. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets continue to respond to the strong jobs data from the US on Friday and what that means for terminal Fed rates. There were no surprises from the RBA yesterday, with NAB’s Ivan Colhoun saying the central bank is very cognisant of lags in monetary policy, so it’s too early to expect any pause in the first part of next year. It’s a different story for the Bank of Canada tonight – who front-loaded hikes and the question is how close are they to reaching the end of their tightening cycle? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf you believe the ISM numbers this morning, the US services sector is growing faster than anticipated. Yet the PMI measure, supposedly monitoring exactly the same activity, showed the sector is slowing. So, who do you believe? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says markets were taking a more cautious approach before the ISM number after a WSJ article suggested the Fed might indicate a higher terminal rate at their meeting next week. A 25bps rise is expected from the RBA today even as indicators suggest private sector labour costs are rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 5th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US non-farms payrolls numbers on Friday were an upside surprise for the number of jobs created and the increase in wages – both factors the Fed has been trying to control. Is the policy working? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have responded with the expectation of a deepening recession as the Fed pushes harder.Canadian employment numbers were also stronger than expected on Friday, so how does that impact the Bank of Canada’s rate decision this week? And, before that, the RBA – what’s their plan? Just because you’ve started opening your advent calendar don’t assume the action is slowing down for Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have not significantly retraced their moves after Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. Equities have rebounded only slightly and bond yields have continued to fall. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland outlines why his speech created a more positive risk outlook. There was good news in amongst the data released overnight too, with ISM manufacturing showing a fall in prices paid. Abd China’s lockdowns could be easing further, with home detention now replacing quarantine centres for low-risk cases in Beijing. The focus tonight, of course, will be on US non-farm payrolls, in particular the average hourly earnings.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy session, with NAB’s Taylor Nugent claiming Jerome Powell’s speech this morning was slightly less hawkish than markets were expecting. But the Fed chair still talked about there being a way to go to fight inflation and the need for sustained evidence of falling inflation before the battle is won. Signs of easing inflation in Australia should also be treated with caution, with yesterday’s new monthly data susceptible to the volatility we don’t see in the quarterly numbers. In Europe though markets have reacted favourably to falling inflation with the expectation that a 75 bps hike at the next ECB is now much less likely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has benefited from a reversal in concerns over China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an announcement of a more intense vaccination program for older people has markets assuming a recovery in the Chinese economy early next year. Germany’s inflation numbers came out lower than anticipated with the assumption that we will see a Europe-wide slowdown in data released data. It’s a different story for Australia though (although obviously from a lower base) with inflation expected to rise today, with NAB forecasting a greater rise than the consensus. Then the focus is on US jobs, with job openings and ADP employment numbers today, ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina is losing out on two fronts. It can’t keep its COVID numbers down and now its facing protests in major cities, which could add to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and, as JBWere’s Sally Auld suggests, it could delay the speed of the global recovery. We’ve already had two Fed speakers overnight suggesting rates might be higher for longer than markets are expecting. In Europe Christine Lagarde continues to take a hawkish stance (just ahead of Euro area inflation numbers), whilst the RBA’s Philip Lowe has been forced to apologise for misleading Australians on the speed and size of rate hikes from the central bank. It’s unlikely yesterday’s drop in retail sales will have any impact on the current path from the RBA – after all, it’s just one month and there are several factors influencing that number.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnrest is growing in China over the zero COVID policy, with protests over the weekend in Shanghai following deaths from an apartment fire, supposedly locked down. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve already seen a response to this news with a fall in the Australian dollar as the market opened. Friday saw a sell-off in European bonds as the ECB sounded ever hawkish, and an increase in the pricing of a 75bps hike at the next meeting. And the numbers are in for Black Friday sales – they are at record levels but given the current inflation levels that’s not really saying much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs you might expect, with Thanksgiving still going on in the US and everyone else watching the world cup it’s been a quiet session overnight. Still. NAB’s David de Garis joins in today to talk through the ECB minutes, Germany’s IFO numbers, the Riksbank’s interest rate decision and China’s likely response to record COVID numbers. There’s also a no-spoiler guarantee, for those recording the soccer to watch later.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a higher risk appetite again this morning, driven by the release of the FOMC minutes which NAB’s Gavin Friend says more or less confirmed that the Fed will lift rates by 50 bps at the December meeting. Before that, the response was to mixed data, with PMIs weaker than anticipated but strong US durable goods orders. There’s also an expectation that Russian supplies of oil might be higher than anticipated as the G7 and EU seem set to set the cap around $65-70, well above the cost of production. That might be good for inflation but a disaster in tackling Russia’s war effort, which has seen a barrage of cruise missile on Kiev overnight.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAmerica will be sitting down to a Turkey dinner tomorrow, but before that markets seem to be determined to spread hope of a pivot from the Fed – or at the very least a slowdown in rates. That’s helped equities overnight and whilst treasury yields are falling. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s unlikely the Fed will be happy to see this sort of price action, it isn’t the message they are trying to send to markets. Less attention sems to be given to rising COVID numbers in China, which are now close to their all-time high in April and are resulting n more lockdowns in major industrial areas. And the RBA’s Philip Lowe warned about the danger of rising wages yesterday, whilst also suggesting interest rates may not return to the lows we saw before the pandemic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are still concerned about lockdowns in China, evidenced by the fall in US equities and a 2% drop in Apple’s share price. Oil has also been falling, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the prospect of an increase in production by OPEC+ next month pushed prices lower for a while before people started asking, ‘why would they do that?’. The argument was it was to compensate for lost Russian oil as sanctions hit, with news reports that G7 and the EU might this week agree on the price cap beyond which they will not ship or insure Russian oil, irrespective of the destination. There’s also discussion today on the fall in German producer prices, what the RBNZ will do tomorrow and what the RBA’s Philip Lowe will say over dinner tonight.Incidentally, today NAB trade donate the proceeds of today’s trading revenue to First Nations Foundation, to support the financial literacy of Indigenous communities. Or you can make a donation. Go to www.nabtrade.com.au/charityday for more information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty years. Normally this would be a clear signal of an impending recession, he says, but we’ve been seeing these signs for most of the year and yet the economy remains surprisingly resilient. The last week has also seen significant falls in oil prices – we look at why. And look ahead to the RBNZ this week. But it’s likely to be a quiet week, with the US celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAnother 32 thousand Australians had a job in October, making the labour market the tightest it’s been in decades. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this cements in the expectation that the RBA will lift rates by at least 25 basis points in December, continuing on in the first meetings of the new year. There’s less expectation of the Fed slowing down as well, thanks to James Bullard suggesting interest rates could rise as high as seven percent. That’s hit equities and pushed bond yields higher. In the UK the new Chancellor managed to issue a budget without a massive market response. Today Japan’s inflation numbers won’t be enough to convince Kuroda to move from the path of his ultra-easy policy but, as Ken, suggests, that could change when he moves on early next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThankfully, World War 3 wasn’t started by that missile strike on Poland. Now markets are back to betting on how far the Fed will go, rather than NATO. As NAB’S Gavin Friend discusses yesterday’s US retail numbers shows greater resilience than anticipated, adding to the work of the FOMC to moderate demand. Moderating demand is less of an issue in the UK, where headline inflation has hit 11.1 percent and household pressures will be hit even more with a cost cutting, high taxing budget expected later today. On the home front, could the evidence of wage pressures yesterday be enough for the RBA to rethink any ideas of a pause in rates before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust as we pressed the record button on this morning’s podcast news broke that Russia had fired missiles into Poland, a NATO m ember. As JBWere’s Sally Auld explains, until that point market sentiment had been very positive, as producer prices in the US eased, adding to expectations that inflation had peaked. The missile strike was a stark remainder of what was one of the major causes of the inflation I the first place and that conflict is far from over. Locally the Australian Wage Price Index is released today and is expected to show wage pressures are well contained, supporting the RBA’s policy of a more gradual approach to rate hikes compared to their overseas counterparts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter the ebullient mood at the end of last week markets retraced their steps a little today, with shares on the rise and the US dollar regaining territory. NAB’s Rodrigo says Fed speakers, in particular Waller, have reminded the market that they will continue to lift rates until there are clear signs of a sustained drop in inflation. The question is, how determined will they be as we start to see more signs of a slowdown? The response to the easing of lockdowns in China seems to have persisted, with the Hang Seng strong yesterday and the Aussie dollar rising against a rising US dollar, helped by iron ore prices. And Presidents Xi and Biden have met and agreed to talk more. That’s another bit of good news ahead of G20. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a trifecta of good news at the end of last week that sent equities rising, bond yields falling, commodities looking up and a chance for other currencies to gain on the US dollar at last. But will it last? That’s a question put to NAB’s Ray Attrill on this morning’s podcast. China announced some easing of COVID restrictions, Russia has backed out of Kherson and markets were still rejoicing with the fall in one month’s CPI read in the US. None of those translate to a fast track to a world that’s COVID free, with peace in Ukraine and price pressures alleviated. Could markets retrace their steps a little today after the euphoria at the end of the week, or will a positive meeting between President Xi and Biden later today add to the jubilation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS core inflation dropped to 6.3% in October, below expectations and down from 6.6% in September. NAB’s David de Garis joins Phil to talk through the market reaction, which has seen stocks soar, bond yields fall and the US dollar taking a big hit. Does this mean inflation has peaked? Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan called it a ‘welcome relief’ but the message from other speakers overnight is that there’s still a lot of work to be done. In Europe the central bank seems to be upping its hawkish rhetoric, whilst the UK is still stuck with the uncertainty of a shrinking economy and a budget next week that will be more painful than restorative.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s inflation day. The CPI print is out from the US late tonight Australia time. On today’s podcast NAB’s David de Garis talks about the impact if the number is a little higher than expected. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that the news for the US is “mostly good”, suggesting longer-run inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable. No doubt his goal was to prevent an overreaction to the numbers tonight, which will be followed by a slew of other Fed speakers in the hours that follow. There’s also a discussion about China’s producer prices on the podcast. They’re falling. Could we see China started to export deflation again? Not if they keep locking cities down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th NovemberNAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets have switched from being upbeat about the prospect of an end to China’s zero COVID to being upbeat about the outcome from today’s mid-term elections. NAB’s Ray Attrill also talks about the differences between Australian consumer and business sentiment and why the business outlook always seems a little rosier. He also discusses how one central banker at least reckons a recession will increase inflation, whilst there’s some hope that falling producer prices from China today might dampen inflation expectations a little, as more cheaper goods are shipped around the world. And Donald Trump has announced he will be announcing something important. Any idea what that might be? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe didn’t see the expected turnaround in markets on Monday. Yesterday on the Morning Call we talked about how Chinese officials had denounced speculation that they were heading away from the Zero COVID road soon, so we expected a reversal to some of the optimism in markets at the end of last week. On Monday though, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses, US equities continued to rise, with the Wall Street Journal reporting again that a turnaround in China’s policy could still be on the cards. Perhaps. Well, the Chinese trade numbers yesterday were a clear demonstration of the damage being done to the economy. Today eyes will be on the US mid-term elections and, if there’s strong support for the Republicans, whether one Mr Donald John Trump will stand for the Presidency. In the more immediate future, markets are preparing for the US inflation numbers later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt seems likely we’ll see a reversal to some of the positive sentiment on Friday that saw equities and commodity prices rise, driven by the renewed hope that China was moving towards an end to their zero COVID approach. The official word over the weekend was that that was not the case. NAB’s Skye Masters says there was also a positive response to non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday, with a rising unemployment rate suggesting the labour market was easing and there would be less pressure on the Fed, supporting the case for a 50pc rise at the next FOMC meeting. But in Canada the labour market is as tight as ever, it seems, evidenced by rising employment numbers on Friday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt could be the worst of times, or something even worse than that. The Bank of England painted two possible scenarios overnight, after raising rates by the expected 75 basis points. In scenario one, the bulk of their work is done and rates don’t move much higher. In scenario two, rates rise to 5.25% and the country faces a two-year recession. Talk about hedging your bets. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it shows the difficulties faced in the UK and Europe, in comparison with the US, where the Fed is fighting continued high consumption levels - evidenced by high imports in the Balance of Trade overnight – and resilience in the employment market. On that point, tonight’s non-farm payrolls will be eagerly watched. We also look at what to expect in today’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWho’d have thought that a fourth 75 basis point hike by the Fed would see equity markets rally and bond yields down? As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the bounce didn’t last long, and it was driven by the term ‘cumulative tightening’, which markets took to mean the FOMC committee believed they could slow down while they assess the aggregate impact of the hikes so far. But in the press conference that followed Jerome Powell made it clear any slow down wouldn’t imply the terminal rate will be any lower, in fact it is likely to be higher than they’d been thinking in previous meetings. Where does the Bank of England go today? The expectation is a 75 basis point hike there too, but in very different economic circumstances. If they do go lighter touch they’ll be keen to emphasise this is not a dovish pivot, simply taking stock of where they are now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA has taken a slow and steady approach to interest rate hikes, so we can expect many more to come. Sally Auld says Governor Lowe said last night that the risks are more two-sided than they were a few months ago, and the bank needs to factor in the risk of the lag. It’s a very different approach being taken by the Fed, with a strong expectation that they will announce a 75bp hike tomorrow morning, reinforced by data showing a rise in job openings in the US. The optimism in markets yesterday afternoon that perhaps China was heading out of its zero COVID approach have been reversed, with newspaper reports suggested the opposite is the case and we can expect more lockdowns and the like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st November 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday is the day of the race that stops the nation, but before the champagne flows there’s an RBA meeting to get through. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the odds are on a 25bp hike today, but the board will be considering last week’s inflation surprise and yesterday’s retail numbers. So there’s an outside chance they will go higher. The FOMC meets later this week, and tonight’s JOLTs job openings numbers will be given some consideration. It’s a while till the next ECB meeting, but an inflation shock justifies last week’s 75 basis point hike and could justify a third such rise next time. And a soggy track – good news for a British horse this afternoon?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets rose sharply on Friday, even though there’s little evidence that inflation is easing or that the Fed will slow down their pace of hikes, despite all the pivot-talk of the last week. This morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is asked whether they are too optimistic, given the data and geopolitics we are experiencing right now. Could the fear of persistent inflation but the frighteners on them this Halloween? The US employment cost index might have moved down slightly, but the rate of wage growth is still way higher than the Fed would like to see. In Europe equities were still rising on Friday even as inflation numbers for Germany, France and Italy were way-higher than expected. With the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting this week will reality come back to bite? Will the word ‘Pivot’ be consigned to history, at least for a week or two? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB raised rates by 75 basis points as expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a widespread expectation that central banks will ‘pivot’, and switch away from a path of higher rate rises. We don’ have long to wait to find out with the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting next week. But is all this pivot talk misplaced? If it’s because of softening data, the Fed has made it clear that inflation will be tackled at whatever cost. For that reason, the employment cost index will be a key number to look out for from the US today. It’s a different story for the ECB, which faces bigger recessionary fears and a mixed inflationary picture across the Euro area. Meanwhile, expect little from the Bank of Japan today, but they will have to make moves to tackle rising inflation at some point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Canada lifted rates by 50 basis points this morning, against expectations of a 75 bp hike. David de Garis says there were cries of ‘Pivot’ amongst the traders at NAB in London, but how far will it stretch. Does it follow that the Fed will follow in Canada’s footsteps? It’s unlikely the ECB will, when they meet later today. Or the RBA when they meet next week, given the stronger than anticipated inflation numbers yesterday. And a sign that the confidence crisis in the UK is over, the new PM announced a delay to the issuance of their new budget without the pound tanking and a massive spike in Gilt yields. Besides the ECB, all eyes today will be on US GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets and bonds have both rallied overnight, pushing yields lower again. NAB’s Skye Masters says investors are still hoping that the Fed will slow down the path of rate hikes, although there’s no data top suggest why they should and some commentators suggesting that rates might go up above 5 percent early next year. Italy’s new PM is opposed to hikes and an end to QE, warning of the impacts it’ll have on high debt economies, like Italy, for example. That’s unlikely to stop the ECB lifting rates by 75 basis points, which is what the Bank of Canada is expected to do tonight. We also take a look at yesterday’s budget and ask will it help combat inflation, or is the expectation that the RBA will do all the heavy lifting? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's been a very mixed session depending on vaired geographic circumstances, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent. US equities continue to rally on anticipation of positive earnings results and the hope that the Fed will slow down its pace of hikes. Europe has seen modest gains as gas prices fall, offsetting a slightly worse than expected set of PMIs. The UK has seen gilts back in fashion as Rishi Sunak is announced as the new Prime Minister, generally seen as a relatively safe pair of hands. But China has seen the offshore Yuan fall sharply and equities also taking a dive, despite relatively strong economic data, including a better-than-expected GDP read. The concern is the direction President Xi will take as he surrounds himself with allies and prepares for more controls and lockdowns. Tonight we’ll find out what’s in the Australian budget, at least those bits that haven’t already been leaked to the press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US finished the week with equities rising and the dollar falling, with the Fed’s Mary Daly hinting that the path of hikes might slow for fear of an ‘unforced downturn’. NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos suggesting the Fed might well be signalling a stepping down of rate increases, and that Timiraos rarely gets it wrong. It’s fun and game is the UK today as they fast track the selection process for the next Prime Minister, although since we recorded the podcast it seems an almost certainty that Rishi Sunak will be the UK's next prime MInister, staving off the turmoil that could have ensued from a Boris Johnson win. Plus, lots of PMIs today, and China’s GDP and other data, pushed back from the People’s Congress last week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK is on the lookout for another Prime Minister after Liz Truss announced her resignation overnight. Her replacement will be found by Friday next week, at the latest, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says there could be a new PM in place as soon as Monday. There wasn’t a massive market reaction, with the good news offset by the uncertainty of who will replace her. Boris perhaps? Yes, really. Meanwhile Aussie jobs numbers show the labour market remains tight, as did US weekly jobless claims. In short, another day with no signs of inflation easing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a very mixed day, but generally the reverse of yesterday. The US dollar has gained strength, bond yields have pushed higher and equities have fallen, despite some strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says we are back to worrying about inflation and central bank’s pursuing elevated interest rate paths. US 10 year yields reached a 14 year high overnight, as the Fed’s Neel Kashkari declared he had not seen any signs yet that inflation had peaked. Higher than expected inflation numbers in the UK and Canada have added to the mood, although gilt yields have fallen as markets assume a more balanced approach by the government, although looking at the political shenanigans overnight the environment is far from stable. And Russia is stepping up action against Ukraine, adding to global uncertainty. Hence, the volatility. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have managed to climb again in the US, supported by earnings results, although NAB’s Ray Attrill describes it as a bear rally. There is still plenty of uncertainty around, evidenced by moves in bonds, in all directions. The BoE drove some of the movement when they announced they would resume bond purchases next month, on schedule, despite the diversion last week. New Zealand’s inflation numbers yesterday surprised on the upside, which begs the question, will we see the same with CPI for the UK and Canada today?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK government decided it couldn’t wait till the end of the month to reverse almost all of their unfunded tax cuts, so they did it yesterday, much to everyone’s surprise. Markets have taken it well, with big falls in bond yields and a rise in Sterling, but as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, there is still a big budget gap to bridge. The impact has helped buoy US equity markets though – perhaps looking for a buy-the-dip excuse. Today look out for NZ CPI and the minutes of the last RBA meeting, when they surprised with a less than expected 25bp rate hike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th October 2022NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields rose higher still on Friday as markets absorbed Thursday’s inflation print and the expectation of faster hikes and a higher terminal rate from the Fed. Despite the hikes so far, there’s few signs of a slowdown, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril pointing to Friday’s retail numbers which showed yet more resilience in spending from US consumers. We look at how this is all playing into the weakness of the Australian dollar. And then there’s the UK! Will they have a change of Prime Minister, will a complete reversal in policies be enough to stop the BoE picking up its pace of increase, and if it is, what does that mean for the pound. Plus, the China People’s Congress, the fall in oil prices and much more besides. It’s a busy start to the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th October 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a stormy night, with violent swings in bond yields and US equities. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, shares plummeting as the higher than expected CPI read but then staged a massive rebound later I the session, fishing markedly higher towards the close. Bond markets responded more predictably, pricing in a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed – maybe 150bp before Christmas. Meanwhile, massive swings on UK bonds with reports that the Truss government might be ready to stage another u-turn on their unfunded tax cuts, although the Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has denied this. Today, US retail numbers will have less influence than the CPI, but a strong read will indicate a more resilient economy which would suggest rates will stay higher for longer.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th October 2022NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe BoE has been buying up more bonds to protect pension funds from the volatility of an economy still struggling with the budget presented by the Truss government. But when Andrew Bailey says the help stops on Friday does he really mean it, or will they be back buying bonds next week? Meanwhile the latest GDP numbers show the UK could well be in a recession, or at least the economy is looking very off colour. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes show the US central bank is determined to continue to tackle inflation, and rate rises won’t stop until the labour market starts to rescind. The number that will drive markets today – US CPI. Whether its higher or lower than expected, we can still expect a reaction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th October 2022NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of England has been buying up more government bonds as it fights uncertainty in UK markets. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s no surprise that they have had to target 30 year inflation-linked bonds, as they constitute a large proportion of the stock held by the pension funds the bank is trying to protect. But, with devastating opinion polls and a rebuff of their budget plans by the IMF, expect more UK uncertainty in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, in Australia the gap between consumer and business expectations has widened further, we look at why that is.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th October 2022NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest title from to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is ‘Gloomy and More Uncertain’. That certainly reflects the mood this morning, with risk driven by an escalating war in Ukraine, question marks over whether the UK Chancellor’s budget will pass muster with the markets, and the China slowdown, now added to by President Biden cracking down on the export of advanced semiconductors. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the timing of the US Presidents restriction is impeccable, just ahead of the Party Congress and the expected announcement of President Xi winning another term in office. Is that why the Aussie dollar is so weak today, falling more than any other major currency? And will we see a continued division between negative consumer sentiment in Australia, offset by more a positive business sector? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.