NAB Morning Call

Friday 22nd September 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It’s a tough time for small businesses in Australia and the road back from COVID seems to be a lot longer one that most expected. In this episode of The Weekend Edition Phil talks to Ana Marinkovic, NAB’s executive general manager of the Small Business Bank, who describes a two-speed recovery, between those who have been able to cut costs and embrace online, and those who haven’t. Those unable to find cost effective labour are being hit particularly hard. But many businesses hit with rising costs are reluctant to push their prices up, taking a margin hit instead. So, looking closely at your operating costs and not being afraid to reprice are some of the key takeouts from Ana on this week’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of England has kept rates on hold for now. Many other central banks have met over the last 24 hours – some have been on hold, some continue to raise rates, one has even cut rates. But bond yields continue to rise and equity markets have taken a hit. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign that investors aren’t convinced that the tightening cycle is over just yet. US continues to display resilience that could suggest the Fed will do more. Even New Zealand, where the RBNZ has pushed rates have gone further than many, GDP has shown a strong comeback. So, the future is still uncertain. The Bank of Japan is next to meet. It’s safe to assume they’ll be on hold but, again, for how much longer?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe response to the FOMC announcement this morning was swift, with 2-year Treasury yields hitting a 17 year high. The equity markets switched into negative territory too. Why? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the fact that rates are on hold wasn’t a surprise, it was the rise in the median rate forecasts for next year and the year after. Higher for longer is slowly sinking in, but now, perhaps, it's even longer than many had imagined. Gilt yields took a hit as UK CPI came in much lower than anticipated. Could this mean the BoE will keep rates on hold? And a swag of other central banks today, plus New Zealand’s GDP. They are expected to claw out of recession, but for how long? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis time tomorrow the Fed will have decided, and the assumption is that they will keep rates on hold. But for how long? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s an assumption of at least one more hike, which is being strengthened by further signs of persistent inflation. Oil nearing $100 isn’t helping and neither is higher than expected inflation numbers from Canada. But the soft-landing story remains, demonstrated further by revisions to the OCED’s GDP forecasts, which has upped growth for the US and downgraded Europe. We also delve into the RBA minutes from yesterday, looking for clues about the direction from here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we wait for the barrage of central banks in the second half of the week, starting with the Fed, a Reuters report suggests the ECB is looking at reducing the high level of excess reserves which could be impacting the effectiveness of monetary policy. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s only natural for them to consider reducing their balance sheet once they near the end of the rate cycle. In the US, meanwhile, the BIS has warned of too much leverage in short positions on US Treasury Futures. Nothing that the Fed hasn’t previously warned about, says Skye. A bigger concern is the rise in oil, with some commentators suggesting it could peak at $100 this week. How does that play in the strategy for central banks? And, locally, RBA minutes. Surprises are unlikely this time round, but you never know! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Plus, the RBA minutes and day one in the new job for Michelle Bullock. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says opinions are still very divided, even within central banks, about whether they need to continue lifting rates to beat inflation. Hence yields lifted further on Friday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th September 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The BoE’s Huw Pill recently likened the path of interest rates to Table Mountain, as he gazed out the window of a conference in Jo’burg. The FT’s Markets Editor Katie Martin says markets have finally accepted the high for longer mantra from central banks, but says it’s not been an easy time for analysts in financial markets, particularly those who had been telling clients to prepare for the US recession that never came. Does that mean it won’t come? And if it doesn’t, what’s the impact of prolonged strength in the US dollar which could add to inflation pressures elsewhere? Then there’s the question of politics. Will interest rates start to come down – like they have in Poland – because of political pressures. The Morning Call’s Phil Dobbie talks to Katie about the unchartered waters that lie below the smooth surface of central banks’ Table Mountain trajectory.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust as NAB predicted, the ECB has lifted rates again, with a swift response in European bond yields and the value of the Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the announcement, the response and the question of whether there is more to come. The ECB also revised down its growth forecast, and upped its inflation expectations a little. Elsewhere, the US reported strong retail numbers., following on from Australia’s higher than expected employment data yesterday. Is read likely to lead the respective central banks to take a more hawkish line? Lots of data from China today – will any of it knock the wind out of the Aussie dollar, which is on the rise against a rising US dollar this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though US core CPI came in higher than expected, there was little movement in bond and currency markets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how the market can sometimes expect more than expected! Plus, weaker GDP numbers for the UK. Are they entering into a recession? And will softer data in Europe recently mean a pause by the ECB. NAB isn’t expecting it. Plus what the latest NAB spending data tells us about the state of the Aussie economy right now, ahead of labour market data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe NAB Business Survey yesterday showed that price growth remained elevated and business conditions rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an interesting takeout is the contrast between the resilience showing up in business surveys, against consumer confidence. Even though individual consumer spending is slowing, higher levels of immigration means businesses are still seeing growth and in a position, for now, to pass on costs. It’s a different story n the UK, where wages continue to rise, but markets are lowering their expectations for a hike from the Bank of England this month. Listen in to find out why. And the elephant in the room – the price of oil. Expect to see it reflected in the headline US CPI rate today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHow soon will Japan move from negative interest rates? Maybe sooner than we thought after Gov Ueda’s interview over the weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the response in Japanese Bond Yields yesterday and overnight. That, combined with a stronger push in the CNY reference rate by the PBoC, pushed the US dollar lower and helped boost the Aussie dollar, to be one of the strongest currency performers. In Europe the EC lowered its growth forecasts, whilst the words from BoE speakers was sounding more hawkish. Today, the NAB business survey will be keenly watched, along with New Zealand’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update which, Ken says, could signal the need for more government borrowing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe G20, unsurprisingly, didn’t come up with any solid plans about tackling the global economic downturn and inflation concerns. Perhaps it exposed the size of the agenda gap between the west and the BRICs component. China continues to avoid any solid plan of its own, to lift its growth, with the WSJ suggesting President Xi’s tight grip on policy is a big part of the problem. Japan’s currency, meanwhile, continues to weaken, so the USA dollar continues to strengthen. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about how markets are positioned at the start of a week that is quite rich in data, with US CPI, UK GDP and Australian employment, plus the ECB rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th September 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is chasing two climate targets. First, to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2050, and NetZero by 2050. That’s going to take massive investment in infrastructure and capabilities. But, as Deloitte’s Claire Ibrahim explains, if we only focus on the lowest-cost approach to meeting those targets we are likely to miss out on the upside opportunity. The real question is, how can Australia benefit from the low carbon future? Phil talks to Claire about the NAB sponsored report “All Systems Go: Powering Ahead”, and more generally, how are we positioned to take full advantage of what lies ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th Septembr 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to hold its strength against weak economic data from Europe and a continuing slide in the Yuan, which has hit a 16-year low. But, JBWere’s Sally Auld says there was a glimmer of hope in China’s trade numbers for August, with signs that export activity is stabilising after significant falls earlier in the year. But we shouldn’t expect any massive upswing anytime soon. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed with a fall in export growth, but a rise in imports, driven in part by people buying cars. Philip Lowe used his farewell speech yesterday to reemphasise his concerns over Australia’s falling productivity. Europe delivered further signs of weakness. Over the weekend China delivers CPI and PPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed a bit higher overnight as US Services came in a bit higher than anticipated, along with wage growth. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through how it has been interpreted. The Beige Book is out and has soft landing written all over it, even if it is not explicitly spelt out. In the UK the BoE Governor is hinting that rate hikes are not a full gone conclusion. They didn’t happen in Canada yesterday. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday and the trade numbers to keep across today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt came as no surprise to anyone when the RBA announced no change to rates yesterday but, as NAB’s Tayor Nugent explains, there were references to further tightening if necessary. NAB still expects there will be one more hike before Christmas. So, can Australia pull off a US-style soft landing? The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday, in part because of a weaker than expected Caixin Services PMI. Rising oil prices could present a threat to headline inflation rates, as Saudi Arabia an Russia confirm their production cuts will continue until December. Australia’s GDP read is expected to show modest growth today, and the US Servies ISM will, presumably, continue to support the notion of a soft-landing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhilip Lowe holds his final RBA meeting today. No press conference either. The expectation is that rates will be kept on hold for now. Bond yields have pushed a little higher, perhaps on the expectation that rates will push higher later in the year, which is NAB’s prediction. Europe saw some more soft data, along with words from ECB’s Christine Lagarde apologising for not always getting forecasts right and saying they needed to be more humble. Part of that humility was giving no indication of what t the ECB will do next. Trading was thin with the US on holiday for Monday, with share and bond markets closed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe number of American jobs rose in data released Friday. Normally this would be seen as a sign of a tightening labour market, but a sharp rise in those entering the labour force means the unemployment rate has actually increased, whilst wage increases have slowed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and Joe Biden couldn’t have hoped for anything better, even if they wrote the numbers themselves. All in all it has reduced the expectations of a Fed rate hike later this month. Locally, there’s little chance of a rate rise in Philip Lowe’s last meeting at the RBA, but NAB still expects at least one more hike before the year is out. So, what data will drive that decision? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st September 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It started out as a transitory problem driven by post-COVID supply constraints. Central banks thought it would pass. Then the mood switched and monetary tightening kicked in. But different central banks started at different times, hiking at different speeds to end up in very different places. But is monetary policy effective in an environment like this? And what about governments choosing to use fiscal stimulus measures, does that help or hinder the quest for lower inflation? Phil Dobbie talks to JBWere’s Chief Investment Officer Sally Auld about the variety of approaches being taken to tackle inflation. Importantly, how does Australia fare? Her views on that are certainly worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st September 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSpeaking in Cape Town the Bank of England’s Huw Pill has likened their policy approach to Table Mountain, with interest rates remaining flat for some time before falling away quickly. So, does he mean they’ve reached the summit. It seems likely that the ECB is still in the cable car on the way up, with inflation remaining persistent. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets have priced in only one more rise, which is a bit optimistic he suggests. The Aussie dollar has been helped by positive capex figures locally yesterday, together with more positive signs from China, including an improvement in PMIs. The key number today, of course, is non-farm payrolls for the US. The markets will be very responsive to any surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 31st August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere seems to be lots of good news in data from the US lately if the assumption is that soft data is good right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve been seeing a bit of that this week, including a downward revision in US GDP and the latest ADP jobs numbers reaffirming that the tightness in the labour market is continuing to ease. It’s a different story for Europe, where inflation remains persistent. The full Eurozone CPI number is published today, but data from Germany and Spain shows the ECB has more to do. Locally, the RBA is likely to be on hold next week after yesterday’s softer CPI read, but don’t assume inflation has gone away or that the RBA won’t hike again. As we explain in today’s episode. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJob openings declined more than expected in the latest data from the US. That’s seen bond yields drive lower as investors hope this slight weakening in the labour market will see off any further hikes by the FOMC. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’ll have to be confirmed with the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday night. The ADP employment numbers later today have been a notoriously unreliable indicator lately, but markets are still likely to respond if the number falls outside expectations. Locally, Australia’s CPI data is out today, ahead of the RBA next week. Taylor talks through what to look out for in today’s numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian retail numbers were a little higher than expected last month, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Matildas Effect will be partially responsible for that. Generally, though, the trend is weaker, particularly given the rising population base, so there’s no reason to expect the RBA to see it as a sign of stubborn resilience in consumption. There’s some discussion on the podcast about how signs are showing the opposite, here and in the US. China has announced measures to encourage extra investment, but markets lost their initial enthusiasm fairly quickly. New Zelaand meanwhile, has had its report card from the IMF and has announced plans to cut government spending but, as Ray suggests, not in any meaningful way.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf markets were hanging out for some unique wisdom from any central banks at Jackson Hole they would have been disappointed. All it did was dismiss any hopes of a more dovish take from Jerome Powell and his compatriots. NAB’s Skye Masters says the focus on Wyoming, meant less attention was given to the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey, which has been heading higher for the last two months. “That stickiness is inflation is a little bit concerning”, she says. With Jackson Hole behind us, the focus is now on a week rich in important data, including Australian retail sales (today) and CPI (Wednesday), and US payrolls numbers on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s falling productivity is in focus as we emerge from the pandemic. The Productivity Commission has provided recommendations for helping resolve the issue, and earlier in the week the Business Council released its ‘Seize the Moment’ report about how the government and private sector can grow the economy. But how much of the fall in productivity is simply the transitional impact from a rise in the services sector. It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to Melissa Wilson, Senior Economist (NSW) at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA). They discuss how productivity gains can come from businesses across all sectors, and a part of it comes from a more adaptable approach, highlighted in CEDA’s recent Dynamic Capabilities report. So, whilst an industrial strategy for Australia would be useful, a lot of work can come from businesses taking a look at the way they operate. On that point, Melissa provides some useful insights on ‘The Weekend Edition’.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets lost confidence all of a sudden despite the standout earnings result and forecast from NVIDIA after the close yesterday. It did seem strange that there was such a focus on AI. Today shares are well down and NVIDIA has wiped out all of its gains. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s concerns that Jerome Powell will pull another rabbit out of his hat at Jackson Hole. There is a track record for markets being driven by central-bank speak at the Wyoming get together. Otherwise, there’s no clear reason for such an about turn. Jobs data held up in the US, durable goods orders were down, but largely accounted for by aircraft orders, and the Chicago Fed activity index was up. None can account for such an about turn. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed lower on the back of weaker than expected PMI umbers, particularly in the UK and Europe. The drop was less pronounced in the US but yields still pushed lower on the back of the European slowdown. Equities rose sharply, presumably on the prospect of less in the way of hikes from central banks. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s unlikely in the case of the Bank of England, given inflation and wage pressures are still strong. Does this mean they will have to force the country into recession? The Aussie dollar has benefited from the yield and currency moves today, but it doesn’t change the outlook. And shares will be buoyed further by a stronger than expected result from NVIDIA, beating analysts’ forecasts for Q3.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed’s Thomas Barkin has warned that strong consumer data from the US lately could mean a reacceleration in inflation is possible although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, he also suggested that if inflation does come down then America is likely to see a soft landing. Inflation could rise in Europe for a different reason, if we see a reemergence in rising gas prices. If the temporary peak we are seeing now becomes sustained. A rapid recovery in China looks less likely by the day, but they at least have a plan, for a tech driven future where, supposedly, most of the existing growth is coming from. Still, that’ll take time – part of the reason NAB has revised it’s forecasts for the Aussie dollar. We talk through the revisions on today’s podcast.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury Yields have hit new post GFC highs, but NAB’s Skye Masters says its hardly a surprise given where Fed funds rates currently are. She reminds us how last year 10-year Treasuries were trying to break 3%, hitting equity markets. Now yields are breaking above 4% and equities are rising. Does that support the soft-landing narrative, which is the expected outcome now by most US economists. Meanwhile, it seems we have to reassess expectations for the level of fiscal and monetary support for China. The PBoC eased the one year prime loan rate, but only by 10 basis points. That’s not going to move mountains, but it also didn’t have a profound impact on the broader market either. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCentral bankers descend on Jackson Hole at the end of the week for their annual symposium. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether we actually have a clear idea of the tack Jerome Powell will take when he talks on Friday. In the past Fed governors have been a little less guarded at this event and there are mixed signals about how much further rates need to rise, if it all, and how long before they start to come down. Meanwhile, the week kicks off with question marks over how China addresses struggling debt and a slowing economy, whilst Japan was confronted with higher-than-expected inflation numbers at the end of last week. How will the Aussie dollar cope with this sea of uncertainty? And, by the way, The Morning Call is seven years old today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Bond markets have been on a tumultuous rollercoaster ride. We saw a heavy sell off of last year as inflation picked up alongside rising interest rates. Now, they’re back, as a buying opportunity. So, are fund managers can seeing them as a growth asset rather than the customary defensive play? Phil puts that question to Katie Dean, head of FICC at Australian Super, Australia’s largest super fund. Katie also gives her views on how the macro picture is influencing purchase decisions. For example, she’s not a big advocate of the US soft landing scenario. Listen in for some useful insights and discussion points. Bonds are not boring, and neither is Katie! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's becoming a familiar pattern lately, with bond yields pushing higher and equities taking a clobbering. The Aussie also continues to suffer as noises come from China about tackling their economic slowdown, but very little still in the way of sold action. Australia’s rise in unemployment yesterday might ease the pressure on the RBA to lift rates, but NAB’s David de Garis says, only for a month. It seems no country can now assume they have finished their tightening cycle.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe tide seems to be turning as investors and policy makes toy up the risk of inflation starting to climb again. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there was a strong suggestion of it in the FOMC minutes, released this morning, although that wascounteracted by two Fed members calling for rates to be held steady. There was clear evidence of the need for more tightening in the UK, where the headline CPI level fell, but core inflation remained resilient, and services inflation ticked higher. So, what’s the risk on the home front? Today’s Australian employment numbers will be a crucial element of the RBA decision making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy day for data releases, having a profound impact on markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through what’s happened, not least of which is the continued signs of slowdowns in the Chinese economy. Japan too has shown a fall in consumption, even though GDP rose (it was all through exports). The Bank of Canada might not be done with rate hikes with a CPI surprise, and the Bank of England has to contend with higher-than-expected wages growth. Even the US is starting to question hopes of a soft landing. It’s been a session rich in data that’s raised more questions than its answered. It was a day light on good news. Maybe the Matildas can put that right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the path of easing from the Fed. Whilst trading has been thin on very little data, get ready for a deluge today. On the home front, Australian wages data, along with Chinese activity data, Japan’s GDP, UK employment, Canada’s CPI and US retail sales. When it rains it pours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how much wage growth and nominal demand are in keeping with the expected fall in inflation. Bond yields rose markedly in the UK as GDP came in higher than expected, suggesting the BoE will want to do more to slow demand there. A quiet session lies ahead, but we take you through the data to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Please click here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide.We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed super funds and investor behaviour at NAB Trade. She joins Phil on this weekend’s podcast. They talk about how global events are playing on local shares, the role of tech in Australia, the impact inflation on growth businesses and finding the high “moat” businesses. If you are struggling to value businesses in these uncertain times, this weekend’s podcast is worth 15minutes of your time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday August 11th 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is that? NAB’s Ken Crompton says yields started rising after a weak 30-year Treasury auction a few hours after the CPI release, which shows there are some nerves about absorbing long duration government debt. There’s also discussion about further weakening of the Yen, UK’s GDP today and further economic indicators for the US later on today/tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st August 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCurrency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.