NAB Morning Call

Thursday 1st June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has fallen further on the back of weaker than expected PMI data from China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it adds to the view that the post-COID recovery is losing momentum. Australia was also hit with higher-than-expected inflation numbers yesterday, which has added to the expectations for a quarter percent rate rise by the RBA next week. European inflation reported so far has largely shown the worst might be over, but we get the Euro areas CPI figure today. If the US Fed is looking for an easing labour market there is little sign of it today, with job openings up and the Beige book reporting companies continuing to find it difficult to recruit people. There is plenty more US jobs data to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 31st May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce it’s over the hurdle of the US House Rules Committee, which is happening right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the feeling is that will pass easily and sets the scene for the vote in the House tomorrow. But many of the market moves are more to do with concerns of an economic downturn, as central banks push harder. That will certainly be the tone of questions RBA Governor Philip Lowe faces when he is in front of the Senate Economics Committee this morning. We also get Australian inflation data today, and numbers for France, Germany and Italy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe timetable to sign off the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling is very tight. Does it matter if it’s a day or two late? "Not really", says NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s podcast, although it might make the markets nervous for a while. A bigger question is what happens beyond that, as the administration plays catch-up on the issuance of Treasury Bills. Also today, we look at the impact of the Fair Work Commission’s decision on minimum and award wages. At what point does the increase become problematic for the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Democrats and Republicans reckon they have struck a deal over the US debt ceiling, which involves no growth in non-military government spending next year. The deal, could be voted on as soon as Wednesday, just in the nick of time, although as NAB’s Taylor Nugent pints out, Janet Yellen has revised the date for when the money runs out to June 6th. It’s not a done deal, of course, but we started to see early optimism reflected in markets in Friday and there’s no reason why that wouldn’t continue today, except the US and UK markets are largely closed for public holidays. Friday also showed resilience in US inflation and consumption, which has added to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will be a key release for that too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still no resolution on the US debt ceiling. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about where markets go from here. Right now, it doesn’t seem to be worrying US equity markets, which have jumped on the forecasts from NVIDIA of am AI-led recovery in chip demands, pushing the company close to a one-billion-dollar valuation. Economc data overnight has shown an upside in the US, but a deterioration in Europe, with Germany having been in a recession for the last two quarters. Still, central banks are talking up the need to do more. Today Australian and UK retail numbers and more measures of inflation, the US PCE deflator and the Tokyo CPI print, which could be an uncomfortable read for the Bank of Japan.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMcCarthy and Biden finished their four hour talks on Wednesday with no resolution on the debt ceiling. Their division over spending continues to concern markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks at the market response, with a deal needed by the end of the week to allow time for the legislative process to run its course. There’s division within the FOMC too, evidenced by the latest minutes. There;’s also been a couple of surprises in the last 24 hours – the RBNZ indication that they may have stopped lifted rates, and the UK’s worrying inflation numbers now raising the possibility of a 50bp rate hike next time by the Bank of England. And rate hikes from the RBA might still have a way to go after Philip Lowe’s meeting with legislators.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s still no resolution on the USD Debt Ceiling. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says expectations are that a deal will be found in time, but markets are getting nervous, with falls in equities across the board (except energy). Inflation concerns continue to mount up, with the latest PMI data in the US and Europe showing that, in general, the service sector continues to expand whilst manufacturing falls further. The UK’s headline inflation rate will fall markedly, but it’s the core number that counts. And we see what the RBNZ is planning to attack persistent inflation – a 25bp is expected but there is an outside chance they will go harder today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf you look at Kevin McCarthy’s twitter feed you’d assume he is taking a very defiant stand against the Biden administration when it comes to movement on the US debt ceiling. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that reflects the stakeholders he has to pacify, and you’d hope he’d be more conciliatory in the negotiations underway. But they’ll have to be quick if they want to reach a resolution and pass any necessary legislation before the default, yet markets remain clam, presumably assuming a compromise will be reached in the nick of time. Meanwhile the Fed remains divided too, although the general direction of travel seems to be more, not less, hikes. The same applies for the RBNMZ, with tomorrow’s expected rise unlikely to be the last. Today global PMIs will be keenly watched. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are distinctly uneasy at the start of the week, as the Republicans and Democrats are sticking to their entrenched position in US debt ceiling talks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a sharp contrast to the upbeat tone on Thursday, so we can expect a large amount of volatility unless they pull something out of the hat on Monday. Meanwhile Jerome Powell hinted over the weekend that the Fed could pause in June, despite the rhetoric from other board members last week. Whilst Christine Lagarde says the ECB needs to buckle up’ to fight inflation. Also today, what impact in inflation and the RBAS will a rise in Australian minimum wages that’s in-line with inflation? Plus, the PBOC’s concerns about currency fluctuation, what to expect from the RBNZ this week and is Japan the new un-China? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are buoyed this morning by comments from US Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he sees a path towards a deal with the Democrats over the US debt ceiling. That’s pushed equities and bond yields higher. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it would be premature to suggest that yesterday’s weaker employment numbers would impact the path of future hikes from the RBA, just as the latest data from the US is too choppy to draw any conclusions on what it means for the Fed. But it seems the increased spending by the NZ government in yesterday’s budget could contribute to an extra rate hike by the RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th may 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have chosen to be optimistic over the US debt ceiling today, with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saying a compromise was “doable”, maybe as soon as this week. And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, Joe Biden is also positive, and the negotiating team has been reduced in size to nut out a solution. Japan’s GDP surprised on the upside yesterday and Australian wage growth came in as expected, but there’s still potential for them to rise further. Australia’s employment numbers are out this morning. All are discussed in today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a finely balanced decision by the RBA to lift rates at the last meeting, with the bank now saying they are focusing on productivity and wages. As JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses today, they don’t have to wait long for the next set of quarterly wages data out today – but the next productivity data comes a day after their next meeting. So, will they pause? We talk through a lot of data releases today, with the tone a little downbeat, pushing equities lower. And uncertainty grows about the debt ceiling, with the clock ticking and no sign of a resolution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs the US careering towards a debt default? There’s only a couple of weeks until the point at which Janet Yellen has warned the US government could run out of money. But Biden and McCarthy are talking, so there is hope of a resolution. But NAB’s Skye Masters says its drawing a long bow to assume the slight increase in confidence in markets today is being driven by hopes on those talks.  It was simply a session light on significant data to drive markets in any particular direction. It’s a different picture in the next 24 hours though, with a swathe of data, and growing uncertainty as each day passes without a debt ceiling resolution. In amongst the releases today, the RBA minutes, which will help explain the surprise decision to lift rates at the last meeting, with NAB now forecasting one more hike this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was further nervousness in the markets at the end of last week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a chunk of it came from the University of Michigan’s survey, which saw consumers raising the level they expected inflation to be at in five years’ time. It seemed an oversized response to a modest increase, but it is a statistic that the Fed likes to keep an eye on. The response could well be overturned by events this week, which include US retail sales, Canada’s CPI, UK labour market data and Australia’s wage price index and employment numbers. A busy week ahead, but a quiet start today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflation number later in the month. Meanwhile, further signs of softness in the US – where jobless claims rose more than expected – and China, where loans are well below expectations. Banks continue to add to the uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at a glacial pace. It’ll be a different story for the BoE this evening, with a 25bp rise expected, but how many more to follow? The ECB is also continuing its campaign of hawkish talk, with 4 more speakers in the next 24 hours. With a Fed on hold and the BoE and ECB still lifting rates, what does this do to the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labour market is easing at a glacial speed. Meanwhile equities are pushing higher helped by the latest earnings results, with Intel and Amazon the latest to report strong results. The focus today will be on how European GDP compares to the US slowdown, and the detail of the US employment cost index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the banking sector, but tightening credit conditions will weigh on the broader economy. Hence, big falls in oil today, which was one of two factors weighing on the Aussie dollar. The other, of course, is the weaker than expected inflation read for Australia yesterday. Could a more dovish RBA against a hawkish Fed see the Aussie fall further?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets took a hit after yesterday’s earnings results from First Republic Bank. JBWere’s Sally Auld says most of the movement overnight can be put down to the uncertainty this has created. The expectation that bank uncertainty had disappeared after just a few days was clearly a little optimistic. Softer economic data from the US overnight also dampened enthusiasm. But Microsoft and Alphabet shares kicked higher in after-hours trade, thanks to higher-than-expected earnings results. Today the focus is on Australia’s inflation numbers and what it means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABShould we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and strong US and European GDP numbers this week. Locally, Australia’s inflation will attract the most attention. US earnings season is in full swing too, with some big tech names reporting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment, manufacturing an housing data from the US. Couple that with falling inflation in New Zealand and the question has to be asked, at least for today, how far do central banks really need to go? We’ll get an update on jJust how soft global economies are today with PMIs for the US, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th April 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other asset classes have seen very little movement, with the Fed’s Beige book describing a US economy that is, at best, stagnant. The proposed new structure of the RBA will be a focus today – we discuss the proposal in today’s podcast – along with NZ CPI out this morning.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFreedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Canada, employment numbers rise in the UK and the RBA minutes yesterday suggest a rate rise could still be in play next week. Central banks plan to do a lot more it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a positive 10.8, driven by strong forward orders. But there’s a lot of volatility in regional manufacturing reports, so will it stick? Today the RBA releases minutes of the last meeting and there’s a swathe of China data to absorb.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves so far, whilst Raphael Bostic seems happy to pause after one more hike. Yet last week Golsbee and Daly were wondering whether any further hikes were needed at all. Locally, NZ inflation this week will be one highlight, and could be a useful guide for the direction of prices in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. There’s also discussion about the UK’s stagnant outlook, with GDP flatlining and mortgage defaults rising. Hopes of easing inflation I the US were helped by a fall in producer prices. Maybe increased exports from China will help too. Perhaps a weakening in consumer demand through today’s US retail sales will add to that picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also, more soft data from the US and further signs that non-farm payrolls on Friday could show a move south, easing pressure on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile, we’re confident the RBNZ will lift rates today. Also today, further signs of softening in the US, including a fall in job openings, with more US employment data out later tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, yields starting falling as US manufacturing data signified a slowdown in the sector, with a fall in the employment index suggesting that maybe non-farm payrolls on Friday will show an easing in the jobs market and help ease future inflation pressures. The key event today of course, is the RBA meeting, where NAB is still forecasting a 25 bp rise. If it doesn’t happen today, it’ll happen next month is the expectation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy costs will be in need of a revision today, as OPEC+ announce a daily 1.2 million barrel cut in oil production from next month. The announcement was unexpected. It’ll add pressure to European economies, where core inflation rose slightly last month. On todays podcast we look ahead to the RBA and RBNZ this week, and the consequences of the Aston by-election result over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBanking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if you listen to the likes of Isabel Schnabel at the ECB or Andrew Bailey at the BoE. But markets are still pricing in cuts later this year. NAB's Ray Attrill talks through why the discrepancy between central banks and markets and makes a bold prediction on what the RBA will do next week. Today’s retail numbers and inflation later in the week could still influence the outcome, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor, says not. Meanwhile, central banks are determined to continue on their counter-inflationary path of rate hikes, with some I the Fed expecting a few more of them before they are finished. So, what of the RBA? We get the monthly inflation data and retail sales this week, but it seems likely they will raise next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down, it’s still very high. He suggests it could serve as a reminder that the RBA also has to keep its eye on the ball. Only significant signs of a weakening economy will change the attitude of central banks, who have separated out their monetary goals from banking pressures. Todays PMIs will give a snapshot of how some of the leading economies are faring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil, will do some of the work for them. Next, it’s the Bank of England. It seemed likely that there would be no move but could that change with a surprise increase in UK inflation announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are also investigating ways to remove the upper cap on deposits covered by FDIC insurance. That’s all helped to boost equities and drive strong increases in bond yields. The question remains, has there been any lasting impact on the speed and destination for central banks? A 25 basis point hike is well-priced for the FOMC tomorrow, but the revised dot-plots will be of more interest. Catch all the news on that in tomorrow morning’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there seems to be some acceptance that this is a Swiss-only story, and AT1 bondholders would count before equities in the pecking order in the case of other banking right downs. So, now, as markets seem to be accepting that the banking crisis is contained, does that mean central banks – like the Fed this week – can push higher on rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.