All steps in the right direction
Australian and German inflation came in lower than expected yesterday, and the Q3 quarterly PCE prices index was revised down in the US. That doesn’t mean all central banks have finished lifting rates says NAB’s Gavin Friend.
NAB Morning Call · NAB - The Morning Call
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Show Notes
Thursday 30th November 2023
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Australian inflation was lower than expected yesterday. It was the same in Germany. And US quarterly PCE prices were revised lower. All signs that seem to be indicating price growth is slowing and central banks will be pushing rates lower. But there are some caveats to all that. NAB’s Gavin Friend reminds us that the monthly CPI numbers in Australia are heavily influenced by the sample rotation, which will have underplayed services inflation, so it’s too early to take NAB’s prediction of another hike off the table. In New Zealand, even though the RBNZ kept rates on hold yesterday, higher demand from immigration could force another move higher. Today’s US monthly core PCE deflator and the inflation numbers for the whole of the Eurozone will give a clearer picture. For now though, bond markets are enjoying the ride.
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