Will US inflation bounce back?
Bond yields shot higher in the US on Friday with stronger than expected job numbers and rising wages. NABs Ken Crompton says markets haven’t fully priced in a cut until June.
NAB Morning Call · NAB - The Morning Call
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Show Notes
Monday 5th February 2024
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US payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first fully priced cut expected in June. He adds there’s a chance that inflation data could be revised up a little later this week. The BoE’s Huw Pill meanwhile has been promoting the need to wait longer before cutting, adding to the underperformance of Gilts on Friday. It’s a quiet start to the week, but the main interest locally is obviously the RBA tomorrow, with the rates announcement coinciding with the publication of the Statement of Monetary Policy, followed by a press conference by Michele Bullock. A lot to take in.
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