Back to expecting faster cuts (RBA/RBNZ excepted)?
Markets are driving quickly away from the US CPI response says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as they bring forward expectations for rate cuts. Soft UK inflation adds to the case for the UK. Meanwhile NAB releases it’s latest FX forecasts.
NAB Morning Call · NAB - The Morning Call
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Show Notes
Thursday 15th February 2024
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Central banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced back today. They rose even further in the UK where inflation came in lower than expected. With GDP numbers later likely to show an economy in recession, can the BoE really hold out much longer? It’s a movable feast, and in the midst of that movement NAB has released the latest FX forecasts, which effectively pushes the growth in the Aussie dollar back a quarter, against a stronger US dollar. But there are a few significant caveats, discussed on today’s podcast.
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