Surprising data does little to move the dial for central banks
A bigger rise in Aussie unemployment, a steeper fall in US retail sales and the UK and Japan in recession. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s not much to change the speed or direction of central banks just yet.
NAB Morning Call · NAB - The Morning Call
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Show Notes
Thursday 15th February 2024
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There have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doesn’t really add to the pressure for the RBA to cut sooner. The latest GDP numbers in the UK, which showed the country has been in recession for the last two quarters, but the BoE was quick to respond on the need to see inflation falling more consistently before they act. Japan also moved into a recession which surely challenges the notion that the BoJ will lift rates. And US retail sales showed the biggest fall in almost a year. So, lots of data, but nothing to change central bank thinking.
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