UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump’s administration clarified the 125% tax on imports from China was 145%. This increase will not shift demand patterns (it will cost US consumers more money). For investors, this raises policy competence questions again. A well-planned trade tax would consider costs. Tax rates set seemingly at random question whether costs are properly considered.

It’s natural to feel anxious during market drawdowns, which is why having a plan to weather market storms (and take advantage of market volatility) can be helpful. Justin outlines some reasons to be confident and calm during market drawdowns, and how to plan accordingly. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As US trade policy continues to evolve quickly, Shane drops by to update us on the latest, and what the near-term may consist of with respect to negotiations. We also discuss progress around the budget resolution up on Capitol Hill, and recap Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s White House visit earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs in on the recent tariff-related volatility in the markets and shares guidance on how investors should consider responding, along with whether the US is heading towards a recession, stagflation, or something else. Plus, thoughts on how the Fed might respond to the market volatility, and a high-speed look around global equity markets.

US President Trump’s retreat from trade taxes took less than 24 hours. However, taxes on imports from China increased, and the universal 10% import tax stays in place. None of these taxes existed a week ago, and US consumers will have to use income to pay them. Higher taxes on specific products remain, and more are promised.

We examine how regions, such as emerging Asia and Latin America, are feeling the impacts US tariff policy. Plus, thoughts on how EM investors should consider adjusting their portfolios, and what to be on the lookout for in the months ahead. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump implemented an extraordinary tax increase on US consumers overnight. If the 104% tax increase on goods from China is not reversed, it is likely to push the US into recession more rapidly. China’s economy is negatively impacted—but the larger each round of tariffs, the less their marginal impact on foreign growth. USD 55 million of tea imported from China is subject to the 104% tax (in 1773 the UK cut tea taxes).

A roundtable discussion around the kind of that role can private assets play in a longer-term investment plan, including a performance update and outlook for private equity, private credit, real estate, and hedge funds. Featured are Jennifer Liu, Private Markets Strategist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Jon Woloshin, Real Estate & Lodging Analyst Americas, and Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets swung wildly yesterday on apparently false reports of a 90-day halt to US trade taxes (except for China). The volatility highlights two problems. Erratic policymaking means stories of dramatic shifts in policy are credible. The move toward Schlesinger’s “imperial presidency” model means policy shifts depend on the whims of one person. These make fake news plausible, creating market volatility.

As market volatility persists following a historical week for the global economy and financial markets, Jason shares his thoughts on last week’s tariff announcement, the potential paths forward, and how to navigate your portfolio through the uncertainty. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following last week’s tariff announcements from the White House, we discuss the overall impact of these developments to economies across Asia, along with the impact to Asian markets. Plus, a look at how Asian economies are preparing to weather the tariff shocks, along with positioning recommendations across the region. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Asian equity markets crashed, with Hong Kong markets down over 10%. Over the weekend, US administration officials gave contradictory statements on trade taxes, causing investors to question the existence of a masterplan. Attempts to justify attacks on the Heard Island penguins only emphasized the peculiarity of the tariff formula. US President Trump took time from their golf weekend to twice post that equity declines were “on purpose”.

As we close out a volatile week in the markets, Brian shares his thoughts on the March employment report, and the overall health of the US labor market. Brian also assesses the potential economic impacts overtime of this week’s tariff announcements. Plus, a recap of notable data-point releases over the past few days, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Financial markets expected a significant tax increase from US President Trump. Yesterday’s reaction shows the tax increase was worse than anticipated. US dollar weakness is telling. We often hear that when the US sneezes the global economy catches cold. This is not the US sneezing. This is the US cutting off its own arm. The self-inflicted economic cost naturally weakens the dollar. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks today on the economic outlook.

In the wake of the latest tariff news out of the White House, Shane reflects on the impacts to US trading relationships around the globe, along with how trading partners are responding. Plus, an analysis of this week’s special elections in Florida and Wisconsin, and what the outcomes suggest about voter sentiment. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

An inventory of Wednesday’s tariff announcement by the Trump administration, along with an assessment of potential economic impacts, and reflections on the global market response. Plus, thoughts on how to manage portfolios during times of volatility and uncertainty. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump unveiled a massive tax increase for US companies and consumers. Tariffs were set at (0.5 x bilateral trade deficit / US imports). This is a predictable formula, completely unrelated to trade openness. The uninhabited Heard and Macdonald Islands get a 10% tariffs (will the penguins retaliate?). This may cause investors to question the competence of the administration’s trade policy.

Economists know what they don’t know. US President Trump is expected to announce the largest peacetime tax increase in US history. The erratic nature of trade policy, uncertainty about whether legal procedures will be followed, limited clarity about end-objectives, the possibility that Trump will again retreat from some taxes, and the unpredictability of patronage-style deals to gain exemptions create uncertainty about the direct effect of the taxes. The second-round effects depend on unpredictable reactions by US companies, a far more complex global trade system than existed 20 years ago, and US consumers whose reaction to inflation has shifted.

A social media post from a semi-official China account suggested that China, Japan, and South Korea would present a united front against US trade taxes. Korean officials suggested this might be exaggerated, but the fact that this is remotely plausible reflects the reconfiguration of how the world works (or does not work). China and Japan are the two largest central bank holders of US dollar assets.

Jason previews what will be a busy few days ahead for the markets, including an impending announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, along with key economic data such as the March employment report. This all against a backdrop of persistent investor concern over slowing growth and recession risk. Jason shares CIO’s latest market outlook, along with positioning recommendations as outlined within the April UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Overnight US President Trump’s influential donor Musk reiterated a desire to “end the Fed.” Abolishing the Federal Reserve is part of the reported Project 2025 blueprint. This sort of talk, immediately ahead of significant trade taxes, is potentially disruptive. A central bank is probably necessary for reserve currency status.

Hear from Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro, Balance Sheet & Risk and CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet, and Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, as they discuss and share their outlooks for the rest of 2025 and beyond, including key opportunities and risks.

Shane recaps this week’s developments surrounding auto tariffs and previews potential additional tariff-related announcements set for next week. We also discuss the aftermath of this week’s Signal leak, and provide updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In 1971, US President Nixon imposed a trade tax on imports into the US, and froze US wages and prices. This was not a success. Faced with rising costs and no ability to adjust pricing, businesses stopped supplying goods. Controls collapsed, and inflation soared. Overnight media reports suggest US President Trump has told US auto companies not to raise prices in the wake of aggressive taxes on imported autos and parts.

President Trump is gearing up to impose a new slew of tariffs on trade partners on April 2, a day he has dubbed “Liberation Day” to signify that America will free itself from unfair trade practices. This day certainly looms large for European nations. The American President has been scathing about European Union’s trade policies. So how hard could Europe be hit? How might the region respond? And how can investors protect themselves? Dean Turner, the CIO’s chief European economists, explores these issues with co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

US President Trump announced an aggressive tax increase for US consumers, with a 25% tariff on imported cars. Officials later clarified it also covers car parts. The tax will raise US inflation and lower growth, but the full impact will take time.

Joe and Jason exchange views and thoughts on a wide range of topics, including the health of the US economy, the implications of US trade policy, the road ahead for monetary policy, and more. Plus, a review of investment recommendations for the current environment. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Joe Davis, Global Chief Economist, and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Vanguard. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK February consumer price data was slightly below expectations—before the weirdness of the UK government’s capped energy pricing adds to inflation in April. Producer price data was not published, owing to quality issues. Labor market data is not being published, owing to quality issues. There will be revisions to wage data, owing to quality issues.

Brian Levitt serves as a Global Market Strategist at Invesco. Brian shares his take on a wide range of topics that have recently influenced investor sentiment and moved markets, including US trade policy, growth concerns, and the progression of artificial intelligence. We also outline a market outlook and discuss asset allocation considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 03.20.25.

Reports that the US vice president and cabinet members discussed war plans on a public chat channel with a journalist in attendance do not directly impact markets. However, the chat messages reveal administration officials’ attitudes (e.g. toward Europe), and raise general questions about the conduct of policy. Any lessening of international security cooperation may impact broader (economic) policy cooperation.

As markets showed signs of stabilizing last week, investors weigh whether the correction is behind us or has temporarily paused. Jason shares his thoughts, along with recaps the FOMC meeting, the latest economic data, along with previews next week’s anticipated tariff news from the White House. Plus, a review of positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media reports suggest that the rather haphazard attempts to restructure the US government could cost half a trillion dollars in lost tax revenues this year. Investors have not priced the restructuring as an efficiency improvement (more efficient government would boost both bonds and equities). While record wealth levels in the US suggest that the high fiscal deficit can be funded, losing tax revenue on this scale will raise concerns about sustainability at some point.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.

South Korean export data for early March recovered from lunar new year distortions. Export strength was led by ships and chips—more-consumer-oriented sectors were not so robust. The data is a positive signal for Korea, but does not perhaps say much about global demand as trade taxes increase.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on this week’s flurry of central bank activity, and what it means for the “big rotation” in global markets that we’ve been discussing in recent weeks. This includes thoughts on Wednesday’s press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell where he used the word “uncertainty” 16 times. We also spend time outlining the investment case for India by answering the question “why now?”.

We check-in on recent performance of the municipal bond market against a backdrop of policy uncertainty and broader market volatility, including a look at a performance outlook, along with recommendations when it comes to positioning. Plus, a deep dive into the implications of D.C. policy to segments of the municipal market. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as expected. Forecasts cut economic growth projections for the next three years, to a rate well below that of the each of the last four years. Inflation forecasts were pushed up. The media will rush to declare “stagflation”—but this is hardly the 1970s. Tariffs will raise inflation and then lower growth, so the pattern is not unexpected, and of course there is considerable uncertainty given erratic government policy.

As volatility persists across global markets, investors have become increasingly concerned about the risk of an economic recession. While it’s tempting to make changes to ones’ investment strategy during such periods of high uncertainty, Justin and Ainsely outline strategies to consider in light of the recent market selloff. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 03.12.25

Yesterday, US President Trump sought to fire the two Democrat commissioners on the Federal Trade Commission. If successful, this might become a precedent that could challenge the political independence of the Federal Reserve.

Our conversation focuses on the landscape for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including thoughts around investment considerations. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan Suzuki serves as the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Dan shares his take on a wide range of topics that have recently influenced investor sentiment and moved markets, including US trade policy, growth concerns, and the progression of artificial intelligence. We also outline a market outlook and discuss asset allocation considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 03.13.25.

The OECD revised down estimates of US growth for this year and next. The OECD does not have any special insight (other than the extraordinary insight of all economists), and market forecasts for growth tend to adjust faster than those of the OECD. The announcement is a reminder of the shift in the narrative about US growth, in the face of erratic policy and rising US consumer taxes.

As investors continue to weigh whether to buy the dips or sell the rallies, Jason suggests how assessing President Trump’s decision tree for implementing tariffs may deliver clarity. We also preview this week’s FOMC meeting, reflect on the latest retail sales data, and acknowledge the YTD outperformance of international markets. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s long-awaited plan to boost domestic consumption is here (as yet without much detail). Unlike the 2024 stimulus, these proposals seem to directly address consumers’ fear of the future. However, the international spillover may be limited. Economic nationalism means that China’s consumers have been less inclined to buy foreign goods.

We close out a turbulent week in the markets by recapping the factors that drove the selloff, along with share an outlook for US equities and review positioning recommendations. Plus, thoughts on the latest round of inflation data, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The recurring risk of a US government shutdown has receded, with some Democrat senators looking to advance legislation. Against the backdrop of damage to “animal spirits” from erratic government policy and taxes, the potential for economic damage from a shutdown would be larger and longer lasting.

With the government funding deadline just hours away, Shane outlines what the proposed continuing resolution consists of, and updates on where negotiations stand. Plus, an inventory of US imposed tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners. We also check in on progress of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement and speak to the likelihood of a CHIPS Act reversal. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

March is Women’s History Month - Carey Shuffman and Amantia Muhedini join the podcast to spotlight the Gender-lens investment: The state of women in 2025 report, which identifies opportunities for investors across sectors for, in and by women. We also highlight how women can be empowered at every stage of their financial journey through the UBS ‘Own your worth’ initiative. Featured are Carey Shuffman, Head of Women's Wealth, and Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy