UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Buying a second property overseas is dream for many. But can it also make financial sense? Our latest survey of global property provides a deep dive on where to find the best value and where the risk of a bubble bursting are greatest. How can investors manage currency risk and optimize leverage? In this week’s Across the Pond the Chief Investment Office’s real estate experts, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek join hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters to explore these issues and how property fits in your broader wealth strategy.

French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned, but will work for 48 hours—President Macron wants Lecornu to find a fiscal solution that would command National Assembly support. Despite obvious parallels, this is not the same as the UK’s Truss debacle. The French bond market remains orderly. French assets will command a risk premium, as investors wait to see whether a new government or new elections are the outcome.

Jason drops by the studio to explain why markets recently have continued their move higher, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and missing economic indicators. We also assess the health of the US labor market with available data-points from last week, and review CIO’s current portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan elected former economic security minister Takaichi as its leader, and thus Prime Minister-presumptive. Takaichi is seen as a pro-growth leader, and has signaled scepticism about the persistence of Japan’s inflation. This has supported equities, and may delay expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week – OpenAI Developer Day, continuing to monitor the US government shutdown.

Join Isaac Chota, 529 Product Manager at UBS, and special guest Kristia Adrian, Executive Director at JP Morgan and 529 specialist, as they break down everything you need to know about 529 plans in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Whether you are a parent, grandparent, or student, this episode covers the latest legislative changes, practical tips for maximizing your education savings, and expert insights on how families in the Tri-State area can make the most of their college planning. Curious about new rules or how to get started? Tune in for an informative and friendly conversation designed to help you take the next step in your education savings journey.

As the U.S. government shutdown continues, we examine the implications of a prolonged shutdown to economic activity. Plus, thoughts on the health of the U.S. labor market, and broader economy, along with an outlook for Fed monetary policy heading into 2026. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today is US employment report Friday—except it is not, because of the impenetrable fog of US government shutdown. As low fear of unemployment is a crucial line of defense keeping the US from recession, this is frustrating.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Dan Hyman, Senior Portfolio Manager with PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US government shutdown continues—Senate Republicans failed to pass their measure to end it. US President Trump indicated some federal government workers may be fired, not furloughed. That would doubtless face legal challenges, but might also increase fear of unemployment. Low fear of unemployment has helped keep US growth mediocre rather than recessionary. However, the federal government workforce is a very small share of US employment, which should limit economic damage.

As the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, Shane drops by to explain the scope of impact, along with next steps with respect to negotiations. Plus, thoughts on yesterday’s Oval Office announcement related to drug pricing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Alejo rejoins the podcast to discuss why the Fed’s current rate-cutting cycle is so important for emerging market investors. We then highlight compelling opportunities across emerging market equities, fixed income, and currencies. Plus, a review of key risks to consider. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Congress failed to either change the rules or come to an agreement to avert a government shutdown. Economists now lack official economic data from the US. Private sector data is a poor substitute. Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole —clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modelling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data.

Coming off a busy week of economic data releases, and with the September employment report due out in just days, Jason shares thoughts around what recent data suggests about the state of the U.S. economy. Plus, a look at recent market drivers, along with the macro and market impacts of a potential shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The final guess at UK second quarter GDP led to some modest increases in growth—cementing the UK’s position as the fastest growing G7 economy year-to-date. Better investment figures led the upgrade. Consumers’ savings rate increased, suggesting consumers have resources to fund future spending (despite retailers’ attempts at profit-led inflation).

Tune in for the annual UBS Studios fireside chat on the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the economic impacts of artificial intelligence, the path forward for monetary policy, fixed income markets, and broader asset allocation with Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Current French Prime Minister Lecornu outlined their policy intentions, if they remain in power. A 4.7% GDP deficit target, no public holidays to be abolished, and no general wealth tax imposed—but tax justice is being talked of. This is likely to be a global trend. The great wealth transfer is underway, and governments with fiscal imbalances are likely to try to mobilize that wealth.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week – the September employment report, and a possible US government shutdown.

Cliff joins Jason at the 1285 podcast studio in New York to cover a wide-range of topics, including the growing impacts of electronic trading to financial markets, along with how machine learning and artificial intelligence are influencing approaches to investing. Plus, thoughts on the state of more traditional portfolio strategies, and the current macroeconomic environment. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Cliff Asness, Founder, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Social media posts from US President Trump overnight indicate a series of new trade tariffs. US buyers of foreign vanity units, soft furnishings, etc., as well as heavy trucks, and pharmaceuticals will be subject to new tariffs. The furniture tariffs, applied on national security grounds, are likely to have a muted impact. These are not high frequency purchases (lowering price awareness). Prices have already risen following earlier tariffs. Democrats appear to have redecorated early this year, presumably anticipating tariffs.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, & Leticia Zemaitis, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

The US releases revised second quarter GDP data. The market consensus is for no change (given data quality problems, “no change” in the details may be unlikely). US growth has been distorted this year—export and inventory data swung wildly between the first and second quarters. Unfortunately, the fiction of annualization assumes that what happens in a quarter, however unique, is continually repeated. This exaggerates first quarter weakness and second quarter strength.

On 1 July Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi assumed the role of Chief Investment Officer Americas, while continuing as Global Head of Equities for UBS Wealth Management. In a recent visit to the UBS On-Air podcast studio in New York, Ulrike outlined her vision for CIO Americas, discussed the evolution of artificial intelligence - including her experience in this space - and shared takeaways from her recent client conversations across the globe. Plus, we look at Ulrike’s career journey, and how she spends her time outside of the office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday saw some increase in macro uncertainty, in case investors thought the world was getting predictable. US President Trump’s comments on Ukraine, and on Russia presented a change of tone. That added some risk premium into the oil price. However, investors tend to be cautious about overreacting to such individual statements.

We examine regulatory reforms being implemented by the Trump administration to the US banking sector, including a look at potential changes to capital requirements, along with implications for both fixed income and equity investors. Featured are Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is to speak on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. The outlook is not likely to stray far from the tone of the last policy decision. Fed Governor Miran did stray quite a distance, suggesting rates were needed to be 2 percentage points lower (coincidentally, others outside the Fed have targeted that rate level). The consistency of Miran’s analysis might be challenged.

Jason drops by the studio to reflect on last week’s FOMC rate decision and market response. We then discuss expectations for rate cuts through the balance of the year, and into 2026. Plus, how and why the Fed funds rate will matter to markets from here, along with a review of CIO’s latest asset allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean exports fell in the first part of September (when adjusting for the number of working days). Exports to the US and China (which often ultimately end up in the US) were weaker. Semiconductor sales were a predictable source of strength.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - the Fed decision and dot plots, the US semiconductor roadmap and key releases for next week.

Shane drops by to recap this week’s UK state visit by President Trump and a variety of economic agreements that were announced. We also cover efforts by the Trump administration to privatize government sponsored entities. Plus, an update on government funding negotiations on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Xingchen rejoins to cover three key themes for China investors to watch, followed by investment opportunities, including China tech. We then explore the EM equities landscape following the first Fed cut, and highlight key opportunities in emerging markets beyond China tech. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie joins in-studio to provide a fixed income performance update and outlook, including thoughts on how fixed income markets could respond to Fed rate cuts. Plus, a look at positioning considerations within the asset class, including views on investment grade, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Carli Torres

Yesterday, French protestors took to the streets over the last government’s proposed spending cuts. This makes good social media content, and confirms stereotypical media biases, but should not change things for investors. France has large reserves of private wealth that could be mobilized to help fund government borrowing, but more democratic wealth increases mean that such mobilization would affect ordinary citizens.

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, converses with Winston Weinberg, CEO and Co-Founder of Harvey.

The Federal Reserve performed as expected—a quarter point rate cut and signals of more to come. The weakening US labor market is prioritized over ongoing inflation increases. That suggests rate cuts even as goods price inflation increases further into next year. Poor quality labor market data presents challenges to policy confidence.

Kurt rejoins in studio to share the latest on US trade policy (and potential paths forward) following the recent US federal appeals court ruling. We also touch on government funding negotiations, including a look at where roadblocks exist, and the prospects for a shutdown by the end of the month. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, fresh off a recent trip to Uganda, Burkhard reflects on his travel notes and connection to country. We also outline considerations when it comes to investing in Africa, and what to know about Africa’s stock markets.

France has just installed its fifth prime minister in just two years, after another government lost a vote of confidence over its efforts to cut the nation’s bloated deficit. What does this political dysfunction in Europe’s second largest economy mean for investors? Does this mean that investors should stick with the US, where equities have continued to hit record highs? In this week’s episode of Across the Pond Claudia Panseri, CIO for France, and Dean Turner, the CIO’s European economist, explains that there are still plenty of compelling investment opportunities in Europe. The prospect of a rising euro as the Fed starts cutting rates makes this a good time for US investors to ensure adequate exposure to investments in Europe.

The US courts have confirmed Fed Governor Cook will participate in tomorrow’s policy decision. The US Senate has confirmed Council of Economic Advisors Chair Miran will participate in tomorrow’s policy decision. Neither confirmation is likely to change the policy outcome—with a rate cut widely expected. Whether a rate cut will achieve much economically is a more uncertain point.

Jason returns following a brief late-summer hiatus to share thoughts on recent market performance, expectations for this week's FOMC meeting, and what the meeting outcome could mean for the market direction from here. Plus, a look at portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors await this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, less for the decision (a cut is expected) and more for signals about the Fed’s worries for the future. The latest initial jobless claims data showed a weakening labor market, but some of those layoffs may be temporary unemployment (one automaker temporarily laid off workers because of a parts shortage, for instance). Temporary unemployment is more easily smoothed over by consumers.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – the FOMC meeting and rate decision.

Shane drops by to update on government funding efforts ahead of the upcoming shutdown deadline, along with efforts in the Senate around the National Defense Authorization Act, and confirming Trump administration sub-cabinet nominees. Plus, thoughts on the US government taking direct equity stakes in private companies. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The August US consumer price inflation data was not surprising. Durable goods prices continue to rise—after 29 months of deflation, their inflation rate has been positive and rising since May. These are less frequent purchases and so while the price moves do erode spending power, the consumer tends to be less aware of them.

US official producer price inflation data was weaker than expected, but the details presented an interesting story. US assembled computers, electronic components, tires, and home textiles saw very abrupt increases in price, and the proxy for profit margins expanded for sectors like clothing stores.

Geopolitics is making headlines, but is generally ignored by markets. Israel’s air strike in Qatar moved the oil price a small amount, but investors are not pricing meaningful supply disruption. Reports of Russian incursions into Polish airspace are similarly downplayed. France has a new prime minister—Lecornu. While markets are not likely to bet on policy change, the US experience demonstrates the drag that policy uncertainty can have on corporate activity.

French Prime Minister Bayrou is expected to resign, having lost a parliamentary vote of confidence related to fiscal proposals. Assuming someone can be persuaded to take the job, that means five French prime ministers in under two years. Political turnover, debt, demographics, etc. invite parallels to 1990s Italy—but in drawing such parallels, it is worth remembering that Italy managed its debt position perfectly well over that period.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – key inflation data (CPI) due out on Thursday.

US August employment data is due. Falling survey response rates, rising complexity, and less funding for data collection have caused data quality to deteriorate. A range of indicators signal a weaker labor market, without causing middle-income US consumers to weaken much. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s data dependency focus means a rogue number might deter a US rate cut, but markets assume the narrative of economic weakness takes priority.

The Federal Reserve has to decide policy based on how far it believes labor markets will weaken, how high inflation will go, and whether higher inflation will persist. (There is also the question of whether rate changes will change any of those issues). On balance, yesterday’s information points to rate cuts.