UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Yesterday’s US data flurry gave hints about trade tax effects. Headline retail sales were weakened by poor auto sales. Some consumers bought cars early, anticipating trade taxes, and so did not show up at car dealerships in May. Import prices rose, suggesting that foreign companies were not absorbing trade taxes (so US companies and consumers will pay). Japan’s May trade data did show a 4.7% m/m drop in passenger car export prices, suggesting Japan’s automakers were absorbing some of the tariffs. Only auto prices showed this shift, which should appear in June’s US import price data.

We examine recent muni market performance, along with look at the investment case for the asset class against a backdrop of macro uncertainties. We also spotlight CIO’s risk assessment framework of local government obligors. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump left the G7 summit a day early. Their departure does not change much of substance—the US was resisting a joint statement on Iran-Israel. However, there is symbolism about Trump’s willingness to cooperate with others. An executive order to implement some of the UK trade agreement was signed, but little progress seems to have been made with Japan.

We begin the week by covering the conflict involving Israel and Iran, along with the potential market impacts (including to oil prices). Plus, a preview of this week’s G-7 summit in Canada, along with the FOMC meeting. We conclude by outlining portfolio considerations when it comes to navigating geopolitical and policy risk. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Xingchen rejoins the conversation to share an update on US-China trade negotiations, along with a look at the health of China’s economy and markets. We also touch on considerations when it comes to global diversification for portfolios. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ongoing exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel this weekend has not had a major impact on financial markets. The severity of Israel’s initial strike against Iran was unexpected and caused a reaction. Further market moves would be justified only if there were expectations of even more disruption to energy supplies or shipping lanes.

Shane drops by to share the latest developments out of the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, along with notable domestic developments spanning progress on the One Big Beautiful Bill, and Federal response to recent occurrences of civil unrest. Plus, thoughts on the outcome of this week’s round of US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out another trading week by recapping US-China trade talks, the latest round of US inflation-data, along with other macro points of interest. Plus, thoughts on US equities at current levels, equity positioning, and a preview of what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The scale of Israel’s air strikes against Iran were not anticipated by financial markets (US President Trump having suggested a deal with Iran was close, just yesterday). As a result, the oil price has had the largest spike since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The economic disruption may well be contained—the starting point was quite a weak oil market, given expectations of a US growth slowdown.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the factors behind the recovery of US equities, along with what could drive further momentum from here. We also cover why European markets may not have an “unfair advantage” when it comes a lower rate environment, when compared to the Fed holding steady for now. Plus, thoughts on the recent performance of South Korea’s KOSPI-Index.

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data showed, as expected, faint hints at the effects of trade taxes and clearer examples of weak demand. The declining number of people wishing to visit the US helped weaken air fares. Goods where inventory is held for longer (like autos) avoided tariff effects for now. Imported goods with shorter inventory times—like bananas—saw price surges. Large consumer appliances had the second largest price increase on record. Producer price data may show more tariff price effects, as these goods sit closer to the point of import in the supply chain.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the factors behind the recovery of US equities, along with what could drive further momentum from here. We also cover why European markets may not have an “unfair advantage” when it comes a lower rate environment, when compared to the Fed holding steady for now. Plus, thoughts on the recent performance of South Korea’s KOSPI-Index.

A special edition fireside chat with Joe Tsai, Chairman of Alibaba, a global leader in e-commerce and artificial intelligence. Following introductory remarks from Mike Ebert, Head IB Americas at UBS, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Global Head CIO Equity at UBS, moderates a conversation, delving into topics like the future of AI and the dynamics of the China Tech market.

US President Trump has declared trade talks with China “not easy”. There may be a difference between the administration’s perception of its bargaining position and reality. With the 90-day deadline to do deals approaching, no deals have yet been made—and the UK trade agreement has not come into effect. There are suggestions that Trump will retreat from export restrictions on chips in exchange for some so-called “rare” earths.

Jason rejoins in-studio to weigh in on a variety of factors that have (or have the potential to) move markets, including last week’s labor market data, and this week’s round of trade talks between the US and China. Plus, thoughts on the impact on the Trump-Musk split to the progression of Trump 2.0 economic policies, along with guidance when it comes to positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media coverage of events in Los Angeles has been intense. There are economic and financial market consequences, but domestic and international investors may react differently. Domestic investors’ views will be shaped by their chosen cable news channel, and potentially by fake news on social media. International investors’ perceptions of risk will be affected by their own experiences of protest, civil unrest, militarization, and secession.

Kurt rejoins the conversation in studio to reflect on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, along with how markets have reacted - plus, thoughts on how trade negotiations (most notably with China) may evolve in the weeks and months ahead. We also discuss investor concern stemming from the US fiscal outlook, and the path forward for the US budgetary situation. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We check back in on the emerging markets by discussing the headwinds facing the US dollar, and what it all means for emerging market assets. Plus, a spotlight on investment considerations surrounding Argentina. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out the week by reflecting on the latest jobs numbers and what the results indicate about the health of the US labor market. We also review this past week’s notable data releases, including a look at the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, a preview of what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US May employment report is due, with the regular reminders that this data has become increasingly unreliable in recent years, and average earnings are not wages. This month’s data will correct errors that crept into last month’s data. Signs of weakness in restaurant and leisure travel sectors mean fewer lower paid workers may be employed, raising average earnings without affecting wages. But, the Federal Reserve’s “data dependency” means the labor market is seen as a trigger for policy action.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the investment case for global markets to continue their climb higher and provides a performance update on some of CIO’s investment themes. We also cover considerations for investors when it comes to climate change-related investment risks, along with reflect on the potential impacts of Japan’s fiscal deficit to global markets.

A total of 52 out of 52 surveyed economists expect a quarter point ECB rate reduction today. How could so many economists possibly be wrong?

Rich rejoins the conversation with Jason to exchange thoughts around the evolution of US trade policy, the current market environment, the health of the US economy, and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s mega-donor Musk was strongly critical of the “big, beautiful bill” currently before Congress. The bill contains many things markets are worried about. Musk’s opposition may embolden some Republican senators to oppose parts of the bill (Musk has more money than Trump, but their recent political forays have not been universally successful).

May was a good month for the markets, though there are many questions that investors are asking as we enter June, such as the fate of tariffs, the outcome of trade negotiations, the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and what impact the tariffs will have on the economy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on those questions, along with shares guidance when it comes to positioning for the current environment. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Reports in Washington suggest US President Trump may talk directly with China’s President Xi later this week (after several days of more heated rhetoric between the US and China over trade). As Trump has been anxious for the call, and China has not, this may hint at more US retreats over trade taxes as a concession to bring China to the telephone.

US President Trump doubled taxes on US consumers of imported steel on Friday, and (so far) has not retreated from that tax increase. Trump reacted angrily when confronted with the Financial Times acronym “TACO”, and the implication that markets expect Trump to reverse policy rapidly. Investors may worry that Trump persists with these taxes, not because of some economic objective but instead as an emotional reaction to market perceptions of their negotiating stance.

We close out the trading week by reviewing the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, recapping notable macro data releases (including a look at the FOMC meeting minutes) - plus, a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

There is yet more uncertainty in the US economy. US President Trump appealed the ruling that their trade taxes were illegal. While this is decided, the taxes stay. There are thus three layers of uncertainty. Will the taxes survive? If they are illegal, will US companies and consumers get refunds? And are trade taxes today actually being collected? There is also uncertainty around how US companies will react to this uncertainty, especially with pricing.

There has been no letup in the trade drama, with a US federal court striking down much of President Trump’s recent tariff hikes. That followed a sudden pivot in trade talks with the European Union - with the threat of a 50% tariff to an acceleration of negotiations all within the space of a few days. So what have we learnt about Trump’s strategy? What does this all mean for the EU and Switzerland? And where do we see the safest investment opportunities across the pond? Hear perspective from Dean Turner, CIO Eurozone and UK Economist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

A timely review of overnight trade developments, plus a look at positioning recommendations within EM equities, and thoughts on the dollar. We also touch on how investors can position using EM and international equities in the context of portfolio diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US trade court ruled that about half of US President Trump’s trade tax increases are illegal. Markets reacted positively, but the US has not been reset to its factory settings.

Equity markets seemingly rallied on optimistic comments from US President Trump around trade. So much focus on the words of one individual is unusual. Trump has the power to limit future economic damage from new trade taxes, but cannot undo the damage of past policy swings. For example, comments in yesterday’s sentiment data highlighted that companies are delaying decisions in the face of policy uncertainty, even as Trump retreated from some tariffs.

Until recently, gold’s rally seemed unstoppable. In an environment where perceived safe havens were scarce, gold stood out. However, in recent weeks, investor sentiment has shifted as geopolitical tensions eased. Does this mean gold’s rally has come to an end? Not necessarily, according to our commodities experts, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Advisory & Content, and Giovanni Staunovo, CIO Commodity Strategist. Co-hosts: Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.

US President Trump has retreated from their threat to aggressively tax US consumers of European products, delaying the suggested 50% tariff to July. These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements, as happened last Friday?

Administration comments suggest US President Trump is willing to increase taxes on US consumers of EU-made products, if the EU does not make unilateral concessions on tariffs. Markets are unlikely to place too much weight on these threats given the president’s tendency to rapidly retreat on such issues, but the situation does (again) increase policy uncertainty.

US President Trump labelled the budget proposal trying to pass Congress a “Big Beautiful Bill.” BBB might be an unfortunate alliteration given concerns about the US credit rating. The details of the budget are constantly changing, so their effects are hard to judge, but the broad impact is to push the US further along a rising debt path. Bond investors are less than happy.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

US President Trump urged Congress to pass the “big, beautiful” budget. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) official urged the US to consider its unsustainable debt level, which this budget will likely make worse. The redistribution effects of the tariffs, spending cuts, and tax cuts does have long term implications. In the short term, the deficit’s size is likely the focus.

The team spotlights the factors behind the recent rally in munis, along with improving technicals, and the return of inflows. We also review the House Ways & Means committee tax plan, and spotlight developments surrounding sanctuary city funding. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, hosted a special fireside chat on the outlook for the world, economy, and value investing with Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer at Pershing Square Capital Management

The key message from yesterday’s pontification of Federal Reserve speakers was “uncertainty”. Uncertainty about policy, uncertainty about how companies and consumers would react to that uncertainty, uncertainty about second-round effects from tariffs, and so on. The result is a wait-and-see approach from the Fed. The risk is that a reactive policy may come too late to correct any economic damage from all the uncertainty.

Jason rejoins in-studio to weigh in on the recent rally in US equities, the rise in rates over the past month, along with recent developments surrounding US trade policy (notably relations with China), and what it all means for the market outlook? Plus, thoughts on the significance of Moody’s US credit rating downgrade, and guidance around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A credit rating agency (it does not matter which) downgraded the US from something to something else. US President Trump’s current policies are unlikely to place the US on a sustainable debt path. Influential donor Musk’s DOGE efforts are unlikely to reduce the deficit. Market reactions should be muted—there is little new information. Administration officials attempted to frame the decision in a political context, but some comments also suggested a limited understanding of the ratings process.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets. Featured are Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, & Fatou Konteh, Investment Strategist, UBS Asset Management. Recorded on 05.06.2025

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on a recent flurry of global deal-diplomacy and market recovery. We also reflect on US-China trade progress (and its’ market impact), and weigh whether investors should still be concerned about the prospects for recession in the US.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for Global Equities within the UBS Chief Investment Office, converses with Lin Qiao, the CEO and Co-Founder of Fireworks.