UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Justin and Ainsley drop by the studio to explain the importance of funding a liquidity strategy, along with outline considerations when it comes to refilling and implementing a liquidity strategy and determining how much to ultimately set aside. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist with UBS Investment Bank, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the state of the US economy. We also touch on the evolution and impacts of US trade policy, along with the potential road ahead for monetary policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy - Recorded on 05.06.2025

US consumer price inflation did not show many trade tax consequences. The slowing of tourism-related prices might reflect how visitors are wary of entering the US, but complications in timing Easter’s effect are also relevant. Appliance price inflation is a concern (the fastest monthly increase since early 2022 may reflect firms anticipating trade taxes).

Investors are inclined to view US President Trump’s early retreat from trade taxes on imports from China as significant, not just for themselves but as a signal of a willingness to capitulate to other countries. Markets are not inclined to take Trump’s threats of future possible tax increases seriously.

Shane drops by on a Monday to preview a busy week ahead, accounting for President Trump’s highly anticipated Middle East visit. We also spend time recapping the outcome of this past weekend’s trade negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China, along with other notable progress made recently on the trade front. Plus, and update as to where progress on Capitol Hill stands with respect to tax legislation. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets, against the backdrop of US trade policy uncertainty. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Sino-US talks over the weekend were described by US Treasury Secretary Bessent as making “substantial progress” on trade. Presumably so important a comment was cleared by US President Trump. The only real issue investors care about is how far the US will retreat on trade taxes. Current tariffs effectively halt bilateral trade. An 80% tariff (suggested by Trump) would also effectively halt bilateral trade. A tax of 20% would damage the US economy, but allow trade to continue.

Zhang Zhang is the Head of AI and Risk Analytics at Polen Capital. Listen to a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of AI, where AI is being under and over-hyped, words of caution to be mindful of, along with common current and anticipated future use cases of this rapidly evolving technology. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s Anglo-US trade framework was preceded by substantial media spin but ultimately revealed only minimal substance. US consumers are worse off than in January, though better off than a week ago. Some UK exporters get better conditions, some US exporters might get better conditions. Yesterday’s Bank of England’s rate cut was a more important economic event.

The first 100 days marker of President Trump’s second term has been reached - Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas (UBS CIO), reflects on the administration’s policy priorities and impacts they have had to the US economy, markets, and investment return. We then shift focus to the next 100 days, including a look the notable legislative ambitions being pursued by the White House and Congress. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Having just returned from an enlightening and productive trip to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Burkhard shares his reflections on the Saudi economy’s progression in recent years, and spotlights future growth potential. Plus, thoughts on the investment landscape and a preview of a big week ahead for Saudi Arabia with high profile visits spanning heads of state to global business leaders.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell pointed out that uncertainty had risen, and that inflation and unemployment might rise. These are all eloquent statements of the obvious. leaving the Fed reacting to data. Central banks that react rather than pre-empt data tend to be late in changing policy. Economic data is also increasingly less reliable, making data dependency more dangerous.

Paul stops by the studio for a Q2 update on the CEO Macro Briefing Book series - we discuss how uncertainty surrounding the macro environment and course for US trade policy has some investors openly questioning the sustainability of US exceptionalism. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

India conducted military strikes against Pakistan, and Pakistan’s defense minister has pledged retaliation. Investors appear to be expecting a relatively contained situation. It is unlikely that global risk appetite will be affected by these events.

As US trade policy continues to evolve and uncertainty remains in the markets, Xingchen drops by the podcast to provide a performance update and outlook for Emerging Market equities. We also discuss the importance of portfolio diversification, and how conditions in 2025 have thus far reflected the importance of diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the investment case for global markets to continue their climb higher and provides a performance update on some of CIO’s investment themes. We also cover considerations for investors when it comes to climate change-related investment risks, along with reflect on the potential impacts of Japan’s fiscal deficit to global markets.

The manufacturer of Barbie dolls has warned that higher prices are coming to US consumers, as a direct consequence of tariffs. Moving production to the US does not seem to be an option. Rationing dolls to two per child while raising prices has limited consequences, but US President Trump has signaled medicines will be next. Rationing medicines with higher prices may have more significant consequences (raising health insurance prices, for instance).

Jason joins the podcast this week from Zurich as we discuss the drivers behind the recent upside momentum across US equities. Plus, we weigh the upside case for US growth staying even in the face of higher tariffs, reflect on Q1 corporate earnings, and outline the latest allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors await the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday policy decision. There is little expectation of a rate change. Preliminary April employment data showed reasonable strength although some areas of job growth (e.g. trucking) are clearly vulnerable as import volumes slow.

Shane reflects on the first 100 days of the Trump administration, along with updates on where efforts and negotiations stand on Capitol Hill surrounding a substantial reconciliation bill. Plus, a look at current US-Ukraine relations and where efforts stand with Russia peace talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out a busy macro week with thoughts from Brian on the latest US employment and GDP data. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US “Temu tax” takes effect at midnight, whereby US consumers pay their government for the privilege of buying low cost products directly from China. The tax is unlikely to show up in consumer price data (it is doubtful that Temu prices are used in the calculation), but it is a visible price increase to many US consumers—a reminder that they, not exporters, pay trade tariffs.

Having just attended the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington DC, Alejo rejoins the conversation for some boots-on-the ground takeaways around the impacts of US trade policy to global economies. Plus, a review of focus points when it comes to broader emerging markets, China, and Latin America. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Officer. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The only certainty economists have about yesterday’s first-quarter GDP data is that it is wrong. Declining survey response rates and economies that structurally change more rapidly than statisticians can measure have conspired to make GDP everywhere subject to more frequent and larger revisions. Nonetheless, broad trends show an economy being rapidly shaped by US President Trump’s policy.

As the Trump administration marks 100 days in office, Burkhard reflects on how global markets have performed during this span. Plus, we dive into the US-China tariff conflict and discuss how this trading relationship may evolve from here, along with what investors should be mindful of when it comes to China’s economic model.

Online retailer Amazon denied reports it would publish the tariff impact on the price of each item sold on its US website. The general lack of tariff transparency risks higher US inflation by enabling retailers to indulge in profit-led inflation—blaming tariffs for price increases that actually raise profit margin. Lack of transparency also risks consumers blaming tariffs for every price increase, reducing confidence and threatening growth.

Justin and Ainsely outline the considerations for adding annuity income as part of one’s retirement strategy, along with explain the current appeal of annuities, and steps investors can take in order to make a plan. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump is to mark their 100th day in office with a partial retreat on auto-part trade taxes, and a speech. The speech risks further erratic policy pronouncements—Trump declared very negative approval ratings to be “fake news”, but may want to blame external forces for their poll performance. That might lead to policy pronouncements on immigration, trade, or some other economically significant issue. Uncertainty about such policy shifts has economic consequences.

Coming off of one of the best weeks for US equities in 2025, Jason considers whether investors are getting ahead of themselves as macro uncertainty remains. Jason also weighs in on the debate over whether US exceptionalism can continue. Plus, a review of CIO’s latest market outlook and investor recommendations per the May UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last Friday’s US data showed a notable improvement in late April consumer sentiment, but only for registered Republicans. Consumers today are buying goods imported before the oppressive burden of trade taxes (on average, it will take about three months for pre-tax inventory to be used). This means economic reality has not penetrated the partisan media bubble around consumers. Businesses are faster to react, with uncertainty fueling a collapse in US port activity as companies “wait and see”.

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 04.17.25

China said it was not negotiating with the US over trade. US President Trump avowed that the US was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty. The US and South Korea have agreed a framework for trade talks (North Korea escaped US tariffs). South Korea and the US had a free trade deal with no tariffs at all until a few weeks ago.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book has biases. The businesses that provide anecdotal evidence will have an agenda, and the Fed economists who edit the anecdotes into coherence understand the economics of trade. Nonetheless, the latest edition used “uncertainty” 80 times—more than twice the references during the pandemic or the global financial crisis. Erratic policies are having an economic impact, and that seems to have penetrated partisan media bubbles.

How much longer will uncertainty last, and where might it all settle? Burkhard weighs in as investors continue to navigate everything from policy pivots to Fed independence to inflation, and much more. Plus, thoughts on how investors should react to a market recovery (or a deeper downturn). We also check in on the status of the global rotation trade, and gold.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Fund Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

With investor concerns growing, US President Trump demonstrated the art of the retreat. They stated they had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Trump may not be able to (legally), but markets will still have lingering concerns about Fed independence. Trump also said they would be “very nice” in any trade negotiations with China, raising hopes that the tax burden on US consumer may lessen.

Despite near-term headwinds and elevated volatility, the market dislocation brings opportunities for muni investors. Sudip and Jeannine provide a muni market performance update and share portfolio considerations for muni investors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump again called for lower US interest rates. Markets interpreted this as undermining Federal Reserve independence, and markets do not like that (US assets weakened). The coming US economic slowdown is driven more by rising risk than high rates. Borrowing to fund investment and consumption balances the cost of capital with uncertainty about the future. Rising uncertainty is the US problem.

Following a relatively calm holiday shortened trading week with little to no developments on the tariff front, Jason updates on where tariff negotiations stand, and what to look out for in the near-term. We also recap last week’s macro developments, spanning retail sales to Q1 corporate earnings, along with takeaways from Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago (and the White House response). Plus, guidance on how to position your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US National Economic Council Director Hassett said US President Trump was investigating whether they could fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Investors seem less than happy with the idea of a politicized Fed—the US dollar and long-dated government bonds have weakened. There are checks on the president’s authority. Fed governors need to be confirmed by the Senate. The FOMC chair does not have to be the Fed chair. However, some of these checks depend on rule of law.

In the short period following early April’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs by the White House, questions remain amongst global investors as to whether the world is headed towards a protracted trade war, and a new regime of significantly higher tariffs. What might this all mean for Europe? Which sectors are most at risk? How can investors position portfolios accordingly? Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, weighs in on these questions, along with co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications. On the evidence of (unreliable) sentiment surveys, over a third of US consumers think inflation will exceed 10% this year. Powell emphasized longer-term inflation expectations, which should still allow for rate cuts. The self-inflicted nature of the economic slowdown may limit the number of cuts.

Hear a discussion on the stability of the US financial system, featuring Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at Yale School of Management, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income, CIO Americas

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this first episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for Global Equities with the UBS Chief Investment Office, converses with Arvind Jain, the CEO and Co-Founder of Glean. Ulrike and Arvind dive into the vision behind Glean, and discuss the future of AI and workplace productivity.

China halted the import of Boeing planes; US President Trump asked China to call him, and then imposed permanent restrictions on NVIDIA chip sales to China; EU leaks suggest negotiators do not believe the US knows what it wants from trade talks. Economic nationalism remains alive and well and includes capital flows. US TICS capital flows data is due today (but misses large amounts of foreign activity in US capital markets).

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets, against the backdrop of US trade policy uncertainty. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ed Al-Hussainy, Global Interest Rate Strategist, Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump appears “very happy” with the economic consequences of trade taxes to date, and is therefore proposing to add to US consumers’ tax burden with levies on computer chips and pharmaceuticals. The tax on chips will probably reverse some of the effects of the retreat from taxing smartphones.

As investor uncertainty persists over the direction of US trade policy, Jason applies some definition to “Trumponomics”, along with explains the equity and bond market response to recent tariff developments. Plus, a preview of busy week ahead which includes numerous Q1 corporate earnings results, retail sales data - and of course - likely further news on tariffs. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump retreated from more trade taxes on Friday, exempting iPhones and some other electronics from much of the 145% tax on imports from China. This would have been a very visible tax increase. While consumers tend to be sensitive to the price of high frequency purchases like food and fuel, a roughly 60% increase in an iPhone’s consumer price from trade taxes would be noticed.