UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The economic calendar includes several central bank announcements, as well as the release of the Bank of Japan’s minutes. With limited investor focus on other central bank remarks, the Bank of Japan minutes may attract particular attention.

Kurt drops by the studio to update on a variety of timely topics, including the implications of potential Election Day outcomes, the prospects for an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, along with takeaways from President Trump’s recent trip to Asia. We also preview the Supreme Court’s hearing on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

If the US had a functioning federal government, we would be getting September trade data today. In theory, one could calculate US trade numbers by using bilateral trade data from other economies. Unfortunately, the rest of the world has been seeking to minimize trade tariffs by careful rerouting of exports, which makes it very difficult to identify what the US is buying using the data of those that are selling.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 15.10.25

Paul drops by the studio for an assessment of the market and macroeconomic environment as we make our way through 4Q25. We focus in on the upward momentum in U.S. equity market and equity valuations, along with potential implications of D.C. policy developments to small business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The October US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll is due. Falling survey repose rates and rising political polarisation have conspired to reduce the reliability of survey-based evidence. The risk is that in the absence of proper US economic data, investors turn in desperation to surveys and give them more credibility than they deserve.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - in the absence of the October employment report (a key macro signal) because of the ongoing government shutdown, any indicators as to the health of the U.S. labor market. Recorded on 2 November 2025.

Paula re-joins Jason in studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, and Fed rate cuts. We also discuss the factors driving equity market momentum, valuations, and portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, Global Client Solutions, Global Macro and Asset Allocation at KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We should be getting US personal income and spending data today, but because the US lacks a properly functioning government we are getting no such thing. This matters because the resilient middle-income consumer has kept the US from recession this year. Credit card data hints that this is still the case, but if fear of unemployment were to rise, downside risks would quickly emerge. The longer the government is shutdown, the greater the role of rumor in the economy—and as bad news sells better, there is a risk that unwarranted fear gains ground in the absence of actual facts.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, the implications of a lower rate environment to fixed income, positioning views & more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, & Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve spoke with an almost British accent yesterday, cutting rates a quarter point with a Bank of England-like three-way vote split. Fed Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was not inevitable. While a majority clearly favored insuring against the risks of a brittle US labor market today, there are fears about future inflation pressures and the lack of credible US economic data.

Leslie and John stop by on Fed Day for an update on fixed income markets, positioning views, and an outlook for monetary policy. We also examine the current state of funding markets and how they relate to quantitate tightening (QT). Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, & John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates a quarter point. The absence of credible short-term data since the last Fed meeting means policymakers cannot follow Fed Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra and must instead focus on economic trends. Market interest will be focused on the spectrum of views, the tone of the press conference, and (inevitably) speculation about Powell’s successor.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the current upward equity market momentum and answers the age-old question: “Are we in a bubble?”. Burkhard also compares the current environment to the TMT-bubble of the late 90s, and offers guidance on how to position in the current environment.

We examine the current situation in Venezuela, including a look at the opportunities and challenges facing Venezuela’s economy. Plus, thoughts as to how Venezuela’s recovery could affect the region and international investors, along with an outlook for the country’s financial assets. Featured are Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, & Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK’s Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.

Jason sets the table for a busy week ahead which includes several Mag 7 Q3 earnings reports, the highly anticipated APEC summit, and October FOMC meeting. Jason also suggests the two most important numbers in economics. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Dan Cassidy

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to have moved into a “dial down” phase after the recent escalation. While details will probably not be given until the proposed meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi later this week, the threatened 100% tariff on US consumers of China’s exports appears to have been removed.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - the October FOMC rate decision, and numerous Q3 corporate earnings releases. Recorded on 26 October 2025.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Dan Cassidy welcomes Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, for a timely update on China. Xingchen discusses CIO’s latest upgrades to China tech and offshore Chinese equities, the macro outlook and consumption trends, and the strategic priority of tech self-sufficiency highlighted in the latest Fourth Plenum. The conversation also covers how evolving US-China relations are shaping investor decisions. Tune in for key insights on China’s market drivers and what’s ahead.

US President Trump announced trade negotiations with Canada would end. Trump is unhappy with the Province of Ontario’s adverts, directly quoting US President Reagan arguing against tariffs on economic grounds. Previous negotiation breakdowns focused on policy issues, which were more readily resolved. However, only a limited part of US-Canada trade is affected by this, and precedent does suggest an eventual resolution.

Andrew Mattock is a Portfolio Manager focused on Chinese equities at Matthews Asia. We discuss the macro factors that have driven China’s markets, and how conditions might evolve in the months ahead. Plus, a look at how Artificial Intelligence and US trade policy might shape China’s market outlook, a review of market risk considerations, and how to approach an allocation to China. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 07 October 2025

There has been a small blip in the oil price following the US announcement that two Russian energy companies would be blacklisted. US President Trump intends to raise the issue of China’s Russian oil purchases with China’s President Xi next week (assuming that meeting goes ahead). In the context of the recent oil price decline, the overnight price move is economically negligible—politics is the only reason it gets any attention.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on the performance of gold and the drivers behind 2025 performance, along with how gold fits in with broader precious metals price action (including silver). Plus, a topical gold-related book recommendation.

Mindful of a flattening yield curve, Sudip and Jeannine join to explain where opportunities exist within munis. We also cover a performance update and outlook for the asset class, following a strong month of September which delivered a notable increase of inflows. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK September consumer price inflation was lower than expected. Air fares and fuel prices added, but food prices seem to have been subject to more general discounting. Previously, food prices mainly experienced discounts for supermarket loyalty card holders, which is not captured in the official inflation data.

Tune in for a performance update and outlook for emerging market equities. We also explain the thinking behind CIO’s recent upgrade of Emerging Market equities, along with Mainland China and the China tech sector. Plus, thoughts on key risk events and opportunities outside of China to be mindful of. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, & Laura Smith, Investment Specialist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korea’s early October export data showed strength when adjusted for differences in working days. As is now standard, semiconductor exports led this export surge. Auto exports were weakened by US tariffs, but trade with the rest of the world continues to be more or less as normal.

Jason joins to outline the current positioning recommendations and investment outlook from CIO (per the November UBS House View), including thinking behind the upgraded view on equities. We also cover investment risks for the current environment, highlight factors that underpin CIO’s investment outlook, and review the latest messages in focus. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets have been pushed around by trade, again. This time the reaction has been positive, as the US seems to have moved away from its more antagonistic position towards China. While the back and forth over trade has certainly done some economic damage, equity markets have reacted more dramatically than the real economy.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - September inflation data (CPI), ahead of the upcoming October Fed rate decision. Recorded on 19 October 2025.

Join Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy with UBS Asset Management, as he shares thoughts on the current macro environment and the factors that are driving markets. Host: Fatou Konteh, Multi-Asset Specialist. Recorded on 25.10.01

Join Jeff Hans, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. We also discuss the impact of Fed rate cuts to US equities, why investors should consider diversifying into value, along with a look at equity sector themes. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 25.09.25

Kurt drops by to update on where negotiations stand to end the U.S. government shutdown, which has now entered week three, along with the scope of impact thus far to financial markets and economic activity. Plus, thoughts on recent US-China trade tensions, and a look at potential next-steps for talks and broader U.S. trade policy. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are reports that the US administration will extend the delay in implementing tariffs on car part imports from two years to five years. This is a reaction to intensive domestic lobbying, and should probably not be taken as a signal for the wider trade tensions between the US and China.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes was not affected by the absence of a functioning government. There was evidence of prices reacting to trade tariffs, and a sense of labor market fragility. However, it is possible that elements of political partisanship are being captured in some of the reported concerns.

Shane joins mid-week for an update on the US government shutdown, including a look at impacted services, and where negotiations stand to re-open the government. We also touch on recent developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated that labor market concerns dominate inflation concerns in current policy. The lack of a functioning US federal government means this economic analysis depends on dubious quality data—private sector polls and potentially distorted anecdotal evidence—but Powell has shown a willingness to depend on such data in making past policy decisions.

Dave Fazekas is Partner & Head of North American Logistics with Ares Real Estate. Dave joins the podcast to discuss the current investment landscape for the Industrial Real Estate sector. We cover repricing and valuations, positioning considerations, and the impacts of factors such as macro uncertainty, US trade policy and tariffs, along with the rise of artificial intelligence. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have detected some shifting around in the US approach to trade with China. US Treasury Secretary Bessent was vocal in asserting that US President Trump and China’s President Xi will meet. Markets have extrapolated from past meetings to conclude that this will reduce the temperature of the trade rhetoric.

As investors begin a new week they are faced with the prospect of more trade uncertainty, the ongoing government shutdown, and the start of Q3 earnings season. Jason drops by to weigh in on these factors, along with Friday’s market sell-off, and CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

After US President Trump’s threat to impose additional significant tariffs on US buyers of goods from China, there has been a more conciliatory tone from both Trump and US Vice President Vance over the weekend. China’s September trade data showed stronger-than-expected exports (and imports). China’s data earlier this year was hinting at rerouting exports to help US importers avoid high tariffs.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - in the absence of government macro data releases we see positive micro catalysts in US banks earnings. We expect US bank earnings to be strong based on increased trading activity, strong capital markets and stable net interest margins.

Jan van Eck is the Chief Executive Officer of VanEck. We cover a wide range of top of mind topics for investors, including a look at the US macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, the impacts of US trade policy and artificial intelligence to economic activity, asset allocation views, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US government has announced that, regardless of the government shutdown, the September consumer price inflation data will be coming out (probably late). This is legally required, to enable the cost of living calculation that raises social security payments—huge swathes of US government spending are tied to inflation measures. The Federal Reserve should have this data when it meets.

We cover a range of sector-related topics, spanning concerns over subprime consumer credit and private credit, a preview of the upcoming Q3 earnings season for financials, sector positioning, and YTD performance across sub-sectors. Featured is Jeff Harwood, CIO Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

French politicians have been doing politics. This week’s prime minister, Lecornu, has suggested that a majority of national assembly members favor seeking a compromise budget. The suggestion is less fiscal tightening than was originally proposed. French assets are likely to continue to command a risk premium, but the bond market should remain orderly.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the third birthday of the current bull market and explains whether the bull has further room to run - assessing where are now and where we may be heading from here.

Economists traditionally do not worry too much about the growth impact of US government shutdowns, as the short-term loss of economic output tends to be paid back with an economic bounce when government reopens. It is still a net negative—contractors are not compensated for lost activity in a shutdown—but government workers get their back pay paid back. US President Trump has suggested that may not happen this time. If that were legally enforced, it would reduce the bounce of the bounce back.