UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We begin the week by assessing the latest developments surrounding tariffs, recapping the January jobs report, and previewing upcoming inflation data. Plus, overall thoughts on recent market activity, and views on positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US President Trump (temporarily) retreated from ending de minimis tariff exemptions. De minimis rules mean US consumers do not pay trade taxes on imports worth less than USD 800. This, alongside retreats from taxing Colombian, Mexican, and Canadian goods, emphasizes trade tax visibility. Consumers would notice the cost of these tariffs (affecting food and fuel prices, or the price of purchases from Temu), and would quickly realize that US consumers, not foreigners, pay tariffs. Highly visible tariffs lead to a quick retreat.

In this episode, CIO's Jon Gordon provides an update on Chinese tariffs on the US coming into effect, Fed speak & US AI security policy under President Trump.

Brian shares his thoughts on the current health of the US labor market following today’s release of the January employment report. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today witnesses the extreme hype of US employment data. Today’s data also has annual benchmark revisions, which will confuse the headlines. Weirdly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled all briefings explaining data. This is not necessarily helpful as data becomes more complex, inaccurate, and misunderstood. It has also fueled disquiet that the new US administration might politicize the way data is calculated (survey responses are already partisan).

Kristina Hooper is the Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. We cover a wide range of topics, including a macroeconomic outlook, expectations for monetary policy, notable market risks, and views on asset allocation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

New US Attorney General Bondi issued a flurry of memos, allegedly including a request to investigate companies pursuing diverse and inclusive workforces. That is economically significant. At a time of rapid structural change, companies need to employ the right person in the right job at the right time to maximize technological gains, with diverse views to spot the opportunities of rapid change. Undermining that risks damaging trend economic growth and profitability.

As headline developments surrounding trade uncertainty and DeepSeek persist, Xingchen drops by to discuss what this all means for emerging market equities. We also spend time examining the scope of US imposed tariffs on China, and the implications for Chinese growth and overall relations with the US. Plus, a deeper look into DeepSeek’s breakthroughs in the AI space. Featured is Xinghen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US postal service has stopped receiving parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong after US President Trump taxed buyers of goods from mainland China worth less than USD 800. Meanwhile, restaurants are surcharging egg-eaters. These are trivial issues, but they affect economic perceptions. Small parcels make up less than 5% of mainland China’s exports to the US, but individuals either do not receive those parcels or abruptly learn that tariffs are paid by consumers, not exporters. Egg prices were a key political issue, and some consumers (wrongly) use them as a measure of wider economic wellbeing.

US President Trump again retreated from imposing aggressive taxes on US consumers. Although taxes on goods from Mexico and Canada are in theory delayed for a month, after three retreats in a row markets are unlikely to take that threat seriously. US consumers would have been visibly affected by these taxes—even Republican senators became aware that tariffs are paid by their constituents and not foreigners, and tweeted pleas for exemptions.

Investors are weighing the announcement of new tariffs from the Trump administration, and the risks of a trade war, along with the implications of DeepSeek to the progression of AI. Jason drops by to discuss the market and investment implications of these developments, plus shares guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Economists are geeks. Star Wars parallels are tempting: US President Trump as the Trade Federation leader; Trump’s largest donor Musk as Chancellor Palpatine, railing against bureaucrats; and economists as Jedi Knights. But threatened US trade taxes have real consequences. Investors’ hope is the precedent of Trump’s rapid retreat from taxing Colombian imports.

As the Q4 corporate reporting season continues, Matt updates us on how the results have been coming in across equity sectors. We also discuss recent performance of US equities, a near-term performance outlook, along with considerations when it comes to positioning within US equities. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump reiterated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of products from Canada and Mexico, possibly excepting oil consumers. Several US refineries are set up to process Canadian and Mexican, not US, oil. The speed of Trump’s retreat from taxing US coffee drinkers is a reminder of the unpredictability around tariff policy.

Businesses have greeted the post-election environment with optimism, yet uncertainty remains as questions surround the timing and implementation of Trump 2.0 policies’ interplay with a seemingly more cautious Fed and slowing economy. Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the outlook and implications. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The returning US president has already helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He is now attempting to do the same for Russia and Ukraine. But what kind of deal looks likely and what would this mean for Europe’s economy and markets? Finally, which equity sectors could benefit most from peace? Featured in this episode is Themis Themistocleous, CIO for EMEA, alongside co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates, which seemingly displeased US President Trump. Uncertainty about the inflationary impact Trump’s policies might reduce the chance of a March rate cut, but characterizing policy as restrictive does suggest future rate cuts are plausible. Overt criticism of the Fed by Trump risks tilting the Fed toward hawkishness in any close call decision, to prove their independence.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the developments surrounding DeepSeek and the impact felt by US technology and energy companies. Burkhard also shares some interesting boots-on-the-ground takeaways from recently attended deep-tech conferences, along with weighs the impacts of the global race for energy resources.

Host, Kiran Ganesh, and colleagues present updated tariff scenarios, explore the implications of recent advancements in AI for investors, and share strategies to manage heightened market volatility.

The Federal Reserve decides on rates—the market consensus is for unchanged rates today. US President Trump advocates for rate cuts, but that view point may be biased by their experiences as a borrower. The rate outlook is complicated. Underlying inflation pressures are modest, and keeping real interest rates stable may require rate cuts.

A wide-ranging fixed income discussion on yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Gene also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following what has been a busy first week in office for President Trump, Shane recaps some of the notable executive actions, developments, and travel. Plus, we update on the progress of cabinet hearings and confirmations, along with preview what a timeline for tariffs could look like in the coming days and weeks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors’ sudden discovery of China’s DeepSeek arguably reminds markets of the Fukushima Effect —people adapt when facing adversity (e.g. restrictions on China’s access to technology). On a larger note, output economics and GDP tend to ignore the benefits of efficiency. A culture that venerates GDP is a culture that may miss out on the benefits of a more efficient world.

Despite markets reacting favorably to week one of Trump 2.0, Jason explains why expectations should be managed when it comes to market price action. We also preview this week’s round of Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC meeting. Plus, thoughts on developments surrounding DeepSeek, and the impact to the US Technology Sector. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s industrial profits grew in December, with profit margins seemingly more or less stable. This has a bearing beyond China’s borders because if China were “dumping” products by exporting below cost, profitability would suffer. Dumping might still happen in certain sectors, but the official data does not support it happening generally.

We provide a performance update and outlook for the municipal bond market, along with share views on positioning within the asset class. Plus, spend time assessing the implications of the ongoing California wildfires to muins. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter point, as had been signaled in the media in advance. The BoJ appears to have confidence in rising wages, and like other central banks is following the trend of inflation (the difference is that Japan’s trend is rising). We expect one further rate increase this year.

Jason and Paul rejoin in-studio to share their revised assessment as to whether the US economy is still on track to mirror a “Roaring 20s” scenario this decade, this as we’ve reached the mid-point of the 2020s. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s December trade data had weaker imports and stronger exports than had been expected. Exports to the US declined, which rather argues against pre-trade tax stockpiling in the US (though there may still be time for that). The absence of stockpiling would likely speed the impact of trade taxes on US consumers.

On the first episode of Viewpoints for 2025, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspective from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. We also spend some discussing the implications of Trump 2.0 to European economies and markets.

Amantia rejoins the conversation in-studio to share some thoughts around the implications of recently signed executive orders by President Trump as it relates to both climate and energy. We also touch on implications for companies, along with takeaways and recommendations for investors when it comes to sustainable investing. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK government borrowing rose in December. Higher interest payments on inflation-linked debt were a significant part of this. Inflation-linked debt is currently tied to the retail price measure (this will change at the end of the decade. Higher energy prices—themselves a function of government policy—can raise interest payments via inflation.

As President Trump’s second term is now underway, Jason performs a “fit check” assessment of the US economy and markets. Tune in for the takeaways, along with CIO’s positioning views and investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Amid the woes, where are the opportunities in Europe’s car industry? President-elect Trump has threatened to slap higher tariffs on European carmakers, Chinese competition is intensifying, and demand for autos in Europe is flagging. But it’s not all bad news for investors. Featured is Rolf Ganter, Head, CIO Equities Europe, with co-hosts, Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters

South Korea’s trade data for the first 20 days of January showed a decline in exports—there were more holidays this year than last, affecting the data. Chip exports remain strong, but exports to the US, EU, and China all declined.

Will Trump's policy changes lead to near-term market volatility? Can earnings season stay solid amid anticipated market volatility? Will the Bank of Japan resume its rate hiking cycle this week? CIO's Belinda Peeters brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

German December producer price inflation is due. This is not normally a major market concern, but as trade taxes and relative competitiveness become more of an issue, this is something investors might pay more attention to. German producer prices moved out of deflation in November.

US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday’s confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The responses on trade taxes were troubling. Bessent’s idea that an appreciating currency offsets tariffs is not supported by recent evidence. The idea that US workers will not pay trade taxes is wrong. As he’s an intelligent individual, these views may reflect the beliefs of the incoming administration, not Bessent’s understanding.

Our first conversation of the year begins with thoughts around the recent rise in yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Ken also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager for RMBS at DoubleLine Capital, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data was benign. Consumer durable goods prices fell for a majority of the Biden administration. Although consumers do not focus on such prices when considering inflation, this deflation did boost consumer spending power. The abrupt market response reflects the problem with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra: any data release (however dodgy) prompts an extreme market response.

Rick rejoins Jason to begin a new year as the two discuss and share their views on the US macroeconomic environment, monetary policy and rates, along with exchange thoughts on allocation preferences across fixed income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Head of the Fundamental Fixed Income business, and Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team at BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US December consumer price inflation should show modest headline gains. It is worth distinguishing inflation pressures and relative price changes. Egg prices are likely to rise sharply—egg producer prices rose 127.9% y/y in December. This is a supply shock. Unless Federal Reserve Chair Powell becomes a chicken farmer, they can do nothing about this.

Leslie rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s outlook for fixed income in 2025, including thoughts around the road ahead for monetary policy, what has been causing the rise in yields, and considerations when it comes to positioning within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Remember past media reports on tariff policy have subsequently been denied over social media. This is a boiling frog approach—the price level effect is the same, but consumers may not notice so much. The risk is that repeated tariff increases would encourage repeated profit-led inflation episodes by providing a convenient cover story.

What does a combination of good economic data and higher rates mean for the markets? Following a strong December jobs report, and with yields continuing to climb higher, Jason reflects on recent market moves and reaffirms CIO’s longer-term market outlook. Plus, thoughts when it comes to portfolio positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahead of threatened taxes from US President-elect Trump. Such stockpiling may delay the consumer price inflation effects of the taxes (though the narrative of the tax increase is powerful, and may lead to consumer price increases regardless).

We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday brings the regular reminder that average earnings are not wages (changing labor force structures change the average). The payrolls number is derived from a survey that has a 43% response rate, and that poor representation means significant revisions are much more likely. The market is looking for a fairly dull report overall—some moderation in job creation with a stable unemployment rate.