UBS On-Air: Market Moves

With a new year underway, Ainsley and Justin rejoin the conversation to explain what retirees, along with those preparing for retirement, should know in 2025. These considerations span social security and Medicare, to long-term care costs, estate planning, and more. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect the rather chaotic swings of view that occur under Fed Chair Powell. After an emergency rate cut without an emergency in September, the Fed has moved to slowing the pace of rate cuts being “appropriate” in December. The basic idea is unchanged— follow inflation down. Concerns were raised about US President-elect Trump’s trade tax and deportation policies in discussions about inflation, but they were not the central focus of the inflation debate.

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. Investors’ concerns are less about the current state of play of the US economy (reasonable growth and slowing inflation) and more about where politics will take the economy next. This has added uncertainty about the 2025 policy path, and gives the minutes more importance than is perhaps normal at this stage of the cycle.

We kick-off 2025 by previewing President-elect Trump’s first 100 days in office, along with the legislative focuses and priorities of Congress in the months ahead. Plus, reflections on the life and legacy of late President Jimmy Carter. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The resignation of Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Bar highlights the guardrails in protecting central bank independence. While Barr’s resignation from the supervision role might be politically inspired, Barr has not resigned as Fed governor. All seven gubernatorial positions are filled, and a vice-chair of the board of governors needs to be a member of the board of governors. The next term to end is Governor Kugler’s in 2026.

Our first episode of the year kicks off with an assessment of market activity over the past few weeks, and what to expect from markets over the near-term. We also spend time outlining expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, and with President-elect Trump’s inauguration only two weeks away, consider whether economic policies in Trump 2.0 will be more MAGA or DOGE. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Will a cooling labor market reassure the Fed? Will stocks recover from the December dip? Can gold push closer to all-time highs? CIO's Christopher Swann brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

US President-elect Trump has been posting on social media in support of a single budget bill through Congress. A single bill might take longer to pass, delaying policy implementation. Trump advocated taxing US consumers of foreign goods to pay for an abolition of taxes on tips. (Tipping has been a hidden inflation force in the US, raising the cost of services without being recorded in inflation data).

US politics intrudes into financial markets, with the US House of Representatives trying to elect a speaker today. US Speaker Johnson has been endorsed by US President-elect Trump’s influential adviser Musk, and by Trump. However, the Republicans hold a very small majority (219 to 215), and one Republican has pledged to oppose Johnson. Investors’ focus will be on what this process suggests about the ease of passing legislation in the new administration.

2025 is the best of times, and the worst of times; an epoch of belief, an epoch of incredulity. In an increasingly polarized world, people will cling to one side or the other—without recognizing that both sides can have a point. It is an economist’s role to impartially assess the economic consequences of politics, in clear and direct language. The likely result is that I will upset everyone this year.

Listen to our final livestream of the year, where our Global Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues provide an in-depth recap of 2024, along with key insights and investment strategies for 2025 and beyond.

On the final episode of Top of the Morning for 2024, Brian Rose drops by to share his thoughts and reflections on this week’s FOMC meeting outcome. We also look ahead to 2025 and examine CIO’s current forecast for rate cuts, along with take a temperature on the health of the US economy as we head into the new year. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the wearisome repetitiveness of a tacky Christmas song, a US government shutdown is again threatened. A budget deal backed by president-elect adviser Musk and President-elect Trump failed to pass Congress. Absent a deal, the US government starts to shut down tonight. A short-lived shutdown affects government workers, but has limited economic impact. The longer a shutdown lasts, the more disruptive it is to the US economy. Economic data may not get published in a shutdown (a problem for Federal Reserve Chair Powell with their addiction to data dependency).

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut today.

For the final episode of 2024, Shane shares the latest on government funding negotiations, along with other year-end legislative priorities of Congress. We also touch on recent developments within Syria, along with highlight some notable priorities of Congress in the new year. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut today.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange 2024 reflections, and 2025 expectations - spanning market returns, monetary policy, and the macro environment for the US, and around the world. We also spend time addressing investment themes, and allocation preferences as we head into a new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We wrap up our year-ahead series with a look at expectations for the municipal bond market in 2025, including how policy uncertainties and macro factors might impact munis, along with how investors should assess key trends and position within the asset class. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Senior Municipal Credit Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Credit Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

While we wait for the perfection of economists running everything, politicians are creating background noise. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Germany’s government lost a vote of confidence and February elections are now likely. Expect deep soul-searching about relatively insignificant changes in fiscal deficits.

As we conclude the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for 2024, Jason unveils and explains his choice for 2024 “finance word of the year”. We also spend time reflecting the latest round of inflation data, previewing this week’s FOMC meeting, and reviewing CIO’s investment recommendations heading into 2025. The CIO Strategy Snapshot will resume on Monday, January 6. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s November retail sales disappointed. Some of this can be blamed on the timing of the singles shopping festival. The pattern of sales showed consumers spending in areas with government support, but in doing so cut back on areas without government support. This demand switching in an overall subdued demand environment has parallels to Japan’s “spending voucher” initiatives in the 1990s. The data keeps up pressure for fiscal policy to tackle consumers’ apprehensions about the future.

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, will outline top ideas for 2025, share key investment insights, and provide strategies for achieving long-term investment success. Recorded on December 5th.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors as we approach 2025, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Kewjin “Kew” Yuoh, Partner, Portfolio Manager with Lord Abbett, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus (including Artificial Intelligence) for the US Information Technology sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology & Telecom Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB cut rates by 25bps as was expected. The ECB does not want to be running a restrictive monetary policy at the moment, and more rate cuts are expected next year. The ECB’s challenge is that data tends to understate economic activity, so knowing precisely how the economy is faring is difficult.

On the final episode of Viewpoints for 2024, Burkhard reflects on what has been a busy year, spanning market and macro developments, along with shares expectations for 2025.

As 2024 comes to a close, the CIO Fixed Income team reflects on performance across sub-sectors (including Municipals, Investment Grade, and Preferreds), and share expectations for the year-ahead. Plus, thoughts on positioning across the broader asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus for the US healthcare sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Eric Potoker, Healthcare Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US consumer price inflation data is due for November. These numbers are something of a mess. A quarter of the index is a fantasy price no one pays. Income inequality means the average price is less representative of most US households’ experience. The threat of taxes on US consumers from the next administration means this inflation data is not necessarily a good guide to 2025 trends.

In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as we head into 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumers have been unenthusiastic, and exports are not necessarily dependable. Yesterday, China’s politburo signaled additional monetary and fiscal stimulus would be forthcoming. If US President-elect Trump taxes US consumers of goods from China, that may be a convenient excuse for China to cut taxes for its consumers.

Despite the emergence of growing global political risks in recent days and weeks, markets and investors appear to be unfazed - Jason offers thoughts as to why that’s the case. We also reflect on the November employment report, and what the state of the US labor market today might mean for monetary policy near-term. Plus, a look at CIO’s current market outlook and positioning views. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President-elect Trump gave a wide ranging interview, touching on several points that matter to investors. Trump seemed to acknowledge the independence of the Federal Reserve (the chair cannot be dismissed on presidential whim). This will reassure markets. Investors may, however, be concerned by the determination to deport migrants established in the US economy.

As we close out another trading week, Mike Gourd drops by to recap the latest employment data, along with the remarks from several Fed officials this past week, including those of Chairman Jerome Powell. Plus, a look at what investors should expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends in employment, US President-elect Trump is proposing policies that might mark a structural break in employment conditions (most obviously deportations and tariffs).

In this episode, Shane updates on several key legislative priorities of Congress before year-end, including a government funding bill, a Farm bill, and the National Defense Authorization Act. We also take inventory of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees, and the prospects for confirmations in early 2025. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the momentum across US equity markets, and weighs how a range of risk-factors could impact the longevity of the bull-run as we head into 2025. Burkhard also ponders the relationship between valuations and return expectations, plus shares thoughts on geopolitical developments within France and South Korea in recent days.

As expected, French Prime Minister Barnier lost a vote of confidence. That was the shortest-lived French government in over sixty years (he did outlast the lifespan of une salade verte, however). The likely options for fiscal policy are either a compromise budget under the new government, or rolling the 2024 budget into 2025. Neither offers much fiscal consolidation, but investors know this already.

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to economies across Asia, namely that of China. We also spend time identifying key investment opportunities across the region that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the UK, 11pm is when pubs close and the risk of sending incoherent text messages increases. In South Korea, 11pm was when President Yoon decided to declare martial law. Parliament rejected this, martial law was rescinded, the cabinet is threatening to resign en masse, and impeachment proceedings against Yoon start today. The Bank of Korea pledged unlimited liquidity to markets.

Our series of year ahead conversations continue with a look at expectations for emerging market assets in 2025, including equities, bonds, and currencies. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over the budget. A likely scenario would be Barnier continuing as a caretaker prime minister, and the 2024 budget being rolled over.

Are the markets getting too frothy, and have investors become too exuberant? Jason weighs these concerns, along with takes inventory of tariffs being considered by the incoming US administration, along with the potential market impact of them. We also preview a busy week ahead for US labor market data, and Fed speakers. Plus, thoughts on how to position for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President-elect Trump has threatened to tax US consumers aggressively via tariffs, if countries “replace” the dollar. It is not clear what “replacing” means. The US dollar is only one international invoicing currency among many. Over half of Eurozone exports are invoiced in euros, for instance. Invoicing status is of limited importance.

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now, we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, join our global livestream where the Global Head of Investment Communications Kiran Ganesh and colleagues will outline our top ideas for 2025, share key investment insights, and provide strategies for achieving long-term investment success.

The French budget and bond yields are attracting attention, with the media ever eager to spot another Truss debacle. This weekend will (presumably) see some fevered politicking in Paris as politicians try to come up with a budget that will not scare markets, but will also not lead to a collapse of the government. France’s deficit is not sustainable, but the government is not actively seeking to make it dramatically worse; so Truss analogies are probably inappropriate for now.

US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure deflator offered no surprises with regard to inflation—though it did show that inflation was more driven by supply problems than demand (according to Federal Reserve analysis).

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.

As 2025 quickly approaches, Rich rejoins Jason for a year-ahead discussion, spanning the macroeconomic environment, to markets, to the landscape across Washington DC. We also spend time reviewing investment themes in-focus, along with allocation preferences across asset classes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Government by social media—US President-elect Trump pledged to hit US consumers with aggressive consumption tax hikes immediately on taking office. A 25% tax for consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tax on consumers of goods from China is proposed.