UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We check-in on recent performance of the municipal bond market against a backdrop of policy uncertainty and broader market volatility, including a look at a performance outlook, along with recommendations when it comes to positioning. Plus, a deep dive into the implications of D.C. policy to segments of the municipal market. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as expected. Forecasts cut economic growth projections for the next three years, to a rate well below that of the each of the last four years. Inflation forecasts were pushed up. The media will rush to declare “stagflation”—but this is hardly the 1970s. Tariffs will raise inflation and then lower growth, so the pattern is not unexpected, and of course there is considerable uncertainty given erratic government policy.

As volatility persists across global markets, investors have become increasingly concerned about the risk of an economic recession. While it’s tempting to make changes to ones’ investment strategy during such periods of high uncertainty, Justin and Ainsely outline strategies to consider in light of the recent market selloff. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 03.12.25

Yesterday, US President Trump sought to fire the two Democrat commissioners on the Federal Trade Commission. If successful, this might become a precedent that could challenge the political independence of the Federal Reserve.

Our conversation focuses on the landscape for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including thoughts around investment considerations. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan Suzuki serves as the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Dan shares his take on a wide range of topics that have recently influenced investor sentiment and moved markets, including US trade policy, growth concerns, and the progression of artificial intelligence. We also outline a market outlook and discuss asset allocation considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 03.13.25.

The OECD revised down estimates of US growth for this year and next. The OECD does not have any special insight (other than the extraordinary insight of all economists), and market forecasts for growth tend to adjust faster than those of the OECD. The announcement is a reminder of the shift in the narrative about US growth, in the face of erratic policy and rising US consumer taxes.

As investors continue to weigh whether to buy the dips or sell the rallies, Jason suggests how assessing President Trump’s decision tree for implementing tariffs may deliver clarity. We also preview this week’s FOMC meeting, reflect on the latest retail sales data, and acknowledge the YTD outperformance of international markets. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s long-awaited plan to boost domestic consumption is here (as yet without much detail). Unlike the 2024 stimulus, these proposals seem to directly address consumers’ fear of the future. However, the international spillover may be limited. Economic nationalism means that China’s consumers have been less inclined to buy foreign goods.

We close out a turbulent week in the markets by recapping the factors that drove the selloff, along with share an outlook for US equities and review positioning recommendations. Plus, thoughts on the latest round of inflation data, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The recurring risk of a US government shutdown has receded, with some Democrat senators looking to advance legislation. Against the backdrop of damage to “animal spirits” from erratic government policy and taxes, the potential for economic damage from a shutdown would be larger and longer lasting.

With the government funding deadline just hours away, Shane outlines what the proposed continuing resolution consists of, and updates on where negotiations stand. Plus, an inventory of US imposed tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners. We also check in on progress of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement and speak to the likelihood of a CHIPS Act reversal. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

March is Women’s History Month - Carey Shuffman and Amantia Muhedini join the podcast to spotlight the Gender-lens investment: The state of women in 2025 report, which identifies opportunities for investors across sectors for, in and by women. We also highlight how women can be empowered at every stage of their financial journey through the UBS ‘Own your worth’ initiative. Featured are Carey Shuffman, Head of Women's Wealth, and Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde almost sounded like an economist yesterday, noting inflation pressures could go up or they could go down. While highlighting the increased economic uncertainty of 2025, Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the direction of ECB rates is down. There are seven ECB speakers jostling for media attention today.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the absence of an anticipated “Trump-put” amidst a rotation occurring across global equities. Burkhard also considers whether this current downturn is more of a short-term “panic-attack”, or the start of a new Bear Market. Plus, thoughts on how investors should position, and where to focus.

We examine how China has been responding to challenges on the trade-front, along with highlight how ex-US markets (including China) have been performing as of late. Plus, some takeaways from the National People’s Congress meeting, and a broader review of preferences across emerging market equities. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump imposed and retreated from aggressive taxes on US users of Canadian steel and aluminum, and Canada retreated from a surcharge on exports of electricity to the US. Canadian steel and aluminum are caught by yesterday’s global 25% tax on US consumers. The EU responded with taxes on its consumers (buyers of bourbon are badly hit), but the EU consumers have substitutes as taxes are only against US products.

Join CIO for a discussion on tariff uncertainty, inflation, and the implications of the artificial intelligence rally, hosted by Anthony Pastore and featuring Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist CIO Americas.

As potential risks around macro-and tariff-related uncertainties emerge in 2025, how should investors position in tech and take advantage of increasing near-term volatility? Plus, as German election results shape market sentiment, what's the outlook for European stocks and what tools can investors leverage?

Equity markets are not just about economics (equity analysts do not always listen to economists). However, shifting perceptions of economic risk seem to be behind recent US equity market moves. 2025 started with solid economic foundations in the US and other developed economies.

As US growth concerns persist, Jason explores how at risk the economy is of slowing (and the possibility of sliding into a recession). We also cover the latest on tariffs aimed by the US at Canada and Mexico, along with touch on policy and market developments in Germany. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest market outlook and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumer prices moved into deflation in February. Some of this is due to the timing of the lunar new year, and some of it is the impact of warmer weather on food prices (food has a higher weighting in China’s inflation calculation than in developed economies). However, markets are concerned that the low inflation environment does not suggest robust domestic demand.

We close out the trading week by assessing the latest round of jobs data, and what the numbers indicate about the health of the US labor market. Plus, take an inventory of tariff announcements, preview next week’s inflation readings, and reflect on recent equity market volatility. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Having imposed aggressive taxes on US consumers at the start of the week, US President Trump partially retreated from taxing Mexican and Canadian imports yesterday (assuming goods are compliant with the revised NAFTA). The taxes are delayed until 2 April, but markets will likely price in more retreats.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the big rotation unfolding across global markets, with the recent outperformance of global equities, and underperformance of US equities. Burkhard explains why the “go global” thesis remains intact, along with shares his take on intertest-rates, inflation and gold.

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, has promised “independence” from the US, having become convinced that the Trump administration is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”. As a result, he hopes for significant spending on defense and infrastructure. Against that backdrop, and after years of lackluster growth, Germany’s DAX index has been among the best performing markets. Can the spending plans add to the nation’s renewed momentum? Featured in this episode is Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, alongside host Christopher Swann.

US President Trump sounded a partial retreat from the latest trade taxes, granting US car companies a one-month exemption for car parts traded under the revised NAFTA. This rather highlights the fact that US consumers and companies, not foreigners, pay trade taxes. One month does not allow for much response—some stockpiling, presumably a lot of lobbying. Market reactions seem to signal a belief that trade tax retreats are possible, but the limited response suggests concern about the lack of policy coherence.

To help you navigate an evolving landscape, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues will delve into the latest developments in US trade, domestic, and foreign policy, examining their potential impacts on investors and offering strategies for positioning in the months ahead.

US President Trump’s address to Congress echoed speeches at campaign rallies. Markets have limited interest in much of the content. Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create “a little disturbance”, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing US consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifted for consumers of Canadian and Mexican products as soon as today.

We cover a wide range of timely topics, including tariffs and US trade policy, efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, along with US government funding and budgetary efforts. Plus, a preview of President Trump’s address to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing and the rich history of Switzerland.

US President Trump lashed out in several directions yesterday, suspending military aid to Ukraine and aggressively taxing US consumers of imports from Canada, China, and Mexico. Although Trump inherited a strong economy, these moves increase US recession risks. The Ukraine decision has economic consequences. It may increase international hostility to Russia and the US, affecting sanction resolve and trade negotiations.

While there is a lot of noise for investors to sift through, there are some things we know with relative confidence. As for other things, we will have to make conjectures. Jason joins to identify just that, along with reviews the latest allocation recommendations, and messages in focus for the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The idea of a coalition of the willing pushing for a one-month ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is probably neutral, economically. Things like defense spending or energy supplies are unlikely to be affected significantly by this move.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Equity markets reacted to social media posts from US President Trump. Trump is often more coherent on social media than in off-the-cuff comments, and these remarks made clear an intention to hike taxes—US buyers will need 25% more cash to buy goods from Canada or Mexico, and another 10% cash to buy from China. The China threat is credible, and in line with our expectations. Markets are not inclined to believe the threats to tariff goods from Canada and Mexico.

US President Trump confused investors by appearing to delay taxing US consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods. The White House then “clarified” that the tax delay was not decided. Such taxes would be very visible to US consumers, at a time when Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and inflation have fallen, making repeated retreats likely.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains how and why market activity (and performance) has started to shift from the US to the rest of the world this year, and how investors should consider positioning their portfolios accordingly.

Many investors want to know the possibility of changes to federal income tax policies, and what the changes might mean for their personal tax burden. However, it's not just the future of taxes and tax policy that matters, it's where your income level falls along the income brackets that ultimately matters. We identify where you can focus your attention so that you can better manage your lifetime tax burden and discuss strategies to help you improve your after-tax wealth potential. Featured are Justin Waring, Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US equity markets were a little disturbed by a sharp decline in a consumer confidence survey—but these surveys are distorted by partisan politics. Depending on the cable news network one watches, the US is either an unpleasant version of Panem from “The Hunger Games” or a Panglossian paradise where all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. Clear economic signals are hardly likely to come from economic surveys in such a situation.

US President Trump repeated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of goods from Canada and Mexico, starting next week. Markets do not entirely believe Trump. Taxing everyday essentials like propane gas and avocado on toast would be very visible, very quickly to US consumers. Polls suggest only 32% of US voters approve of Trump’s management of inflation.

Jason weighs whether the main macroeconomic debate in 2025 relevant for the markets may be whether a Trump policy put is more or less likely than a policy error. We also reflect on Friday’s notable selloff across US equity markets, and recap Germany’s election results. Plus, a look at CIO’s near-term market outlook, and positioning views. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As with many other elections in the past 12 months, the Germans voted against their incumbent government. The CDU’s Merz is expected to become the next chancellor (coalition negotiations typically take months). After the results, Merz compared US election interference to that of Russia, and suggested that Europe would need to become independent of US security.

Against the backdrop of a potential shutdown of the US government next month, Shane updates us on a range of priorities being addressed by Congress. We also update on the status of remaining cabinet-level confirmation hearings, along with ongoing negotiations for a Russia-Ukraine war resolution. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the European Union Omnibus regulations, along with Trump administration executive orders that have attracted attention to the sustainability landscape. Featured in-studio are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer of the Sustainable Thematic Equities team at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that former US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s debt issuance plan would continue, implying no increase in longer-dated Treasury bonds and lowering 10-year yields. This support is threatened by talk of a “DOGE dividend” to taxpayers. There is a considerable gulf between claimed government savings and economists’ view of reality. Refunding illusionary savings would be a deficit-financed stimulus check.

Paul rejoins us in-studio to answer some of the most commonly asked questions our business-owner clients have regarding the M&A, Private Equity, Venture Capital, and IPO space in 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy