UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting gave a cautious policy outlook. Nervousness about the economic consequences of US President Trump’s policies was clear. In particular, the potential for Trump to ignite a further wave of inflation was cited. Companies seem more willing to pass on import tax increases to end consumers than in Trump’s first term (perhaps because consumers have become more accustomed to price increases). The potential for profit-led inflation may exaggerate that.

US President Trump threatened more taxes on US consumers, focused on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Trump rapidly retreated from trade taxes that would be very visible to US consumers—Gen Z would notice tariff-induced inflation for avocado on toast. Less visible taxes (like aluminum) have endured. The new proposals are partially visible—taxing new cars raises second-hand car prices and the cost of car insurance—but probably sufficiently disguised as to prevent a repeat retreat.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on his recent travels to Africa and attendance at technology conferences across Europe - shedding light on the continental differences of our digital economy, along with opportunities to be aware of. Burkhard also previews the upcoming elections in Germany, and what clients and investors should be mindful of.

The Swiss franc has long been a safe haven during uncertain times - second only to the US dollar for many investors. But what makes the currency of the world's 20th largest economy so appealing? The small Alpine nation also boasts an impressively broad industrial base and an array of innovative companies. So, which other Swiss assets should global investors be considering? Featured in this episode is Daniel Kalt, CIO for Switzerland, alongside co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

Jason drops by the 1285 studio to share his assessment of recent economic data, including on inflation and retail sales. We also take inventory of recent policy developments out of Washington DC, spanning DOGE to tariffs, to Congressional budget negotiations. Plus, thoughts on overall market activity, and a look at positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data was stronger than forecast, with some positive revisions to previous month’s data. Anguished corporate cries about tax increases and related projections of mass unemployment do not (so far) appear in any of the data. Employment growth seems especially strong amongst the middle-aged, who matter because they have an important degree of spending power.

An assessment of federal policy proposals and potential implications to the muni market, along with a YTD muni performance check, and a look a muni investment trends. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, and David Perlman, ETF Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Join the Chief Investment Office for a discussion on the executive order Trump signed over the weekend to impose additional tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, the implications for investors, and more. The event is hosted by Amantia Muhedini and features David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US.

Will new tariff policies derail economic momentum in the US? Does gold have further room to rally in 2025? Will the global easing cycle continue to gain traction in 2025? CIO's Belinda Peeters brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

Selected European countries are meeting in Paris to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. This is not likely to be market moving. Europe has allocated about 14% more money to Ukraine than the US, and countries like Germany do spend military aid on new production rather than using existing stockpiles. However, the sums involved are still economically small, limiting their impact.

Yesterday was US President Trump’s very big announcement on reciprocal tariffs, which turned out to be a plan to investigate taxing US consumers at a future date. Markets had to decide whether the president was being a protectionist or a pushover, and for now are erring toward pushover. The delay is seen as an opportunity to do “deals”. So far, such deals have been more spin than substance.

Yesterday’s US consumer price data provoked some unease in bond markets. This is mainly the fault of Federal Reserve Chair Powell—not because Powell’s policies drove inflation higher, but because Powell’s “data dependency” mantra means markets overreact to any data point. Egg prices are not controllable (not even by presidential executive order), but the fact that food price inflation is creeping up may have implications for other policies that are hurting US farmers. Today’s producer price data may show companies anticipating tariffs.

US January consumer price inflation will be largely unaffected by US President Trump’s trade taxes (though prices are occasionally raised in anticipation of tariffs). Unless tax increases are very aggressive, nothing Trump does will have a bearing on first quarter inflation. However, the composition of consumer prices is politically important.

US President Trump stated there will be no exceptions to aggressively taxing US buyers of foreign metals (due to start on 4 March, giving time for US companies to plead for exceptions). If there is no retreat, this will reduce US steel consumers’ competitiveness via higher import and domestic costs (if domestic metal producers raise prices under cover of the tariff). Retail consumers are less likely to notice the tax, unless job losses are explicitly linked to it.

We begin the week by assessing the latest developments surrounding tariffs, recapping the January jobs report, and previewing upcoming inflation data. Plus, overall thoughts on recent market activity, and views on positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US President Trump (temporarily) retreated from ending de minimis tariff exemptions. De minimis rules mean US consumers do not pay trade taxes on imports worth less than USD 800. This, alongside retreats from taxing Colombian, Mexican, and Canadian goods, emphasizes trade tax visibility. Consumers would notice the cost of these tariffs (affecting food and fuel prices, or the price of purchases from Temu), and would quickly realize that US consumers, not foreigners, pay tariffs. Highly visible tariffs lead to a quick retreat.

In this episode, CIO's Jon Gordon provides an update on Chinese tariffs on the US coming into effect, Fed speak & US AI security policy under President Trump.

Brian shares his thoughts on the current health of the US labor market following today’s release of the January employment report. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Today witnesses the extreme hype of US employment data. Today’s data also has annual benchmark revisions, which will confuse the headlines. Weirdly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled all briefings explaining data. This is not necessarily helpful as data becomes more complex, inaccurate, and misunderstood. It has also fueled disquiet that the new US administration might politicize the way data is calculated (survey responses are already partisan).

Kristina Hooper is the Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. We cover a wide range of topics, including a macroeconomic outlook, expectations for monetary policy, notable market risks, and views on asset allocation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

New US Attorney General Bondi issued a flurry of memos, allegedly including a request to investigate companies pursuing diverse and inclusive workforces. That is economically significant. At a time of rapid structural change, companies need to employ the right person in the right job at the right time to maximize technological gains, with diverse views to spot the opportunities of rapid change. Undermining that risks damaging trend economic growth and profitability.

As headline developments surrounding trade uncertainty and DeepSeek persist, Xingchen drops by to discuss what this all means for emerging market equities. We also spend time examining the scope of US imposed tariffs on China, and the implications for Chinese growth and overall relations with the US. Plus, a deeper look into DeepSeek’s breakthroughs in the AI space. Featured is Xinghen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US postal service has stopped receiving parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong after US President Trump taxed buyers of goods from mainland China worth less than USD 800. Meanwhile, restaurants are surcharging egg-eaters. These are trivial issues, but they affect economic perceptions. Small parcels make up less than 5% of mainland China’s exports to the US, but individuals either do not receive those parcels or abruptly learn that tariffs are paid by consumers, not exporters. Egg prices were a key political issue, and some consumers (wrongly) use them as a measure of wider economic wellbeing.

US President Trump again retreated from imposing aggressive taxes on US consumers. Although taxes on goods from Mexico and Canada are in theory delayed for a month, after three retreats in a row markets are unlikely to take that threat seriously. US consumers would have been visibly affected by these taxes—even Republican senators became aware that tariffs are paid by their constituents and not foreigners, and tweeted pleas for exemptions.

Investors are weighing the announcement of new tariffs from the Trump administration, and the risks of a trade war, along with the implications of DeepSeek to the progression of AI. Jason drops by to discuss the market and investment implications of these developments, plus shares guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Economists are geeks. Star Wars parallels are tempting: US President Trump as the Trade Federation leader; Trump’s largest donor Musk as Chancellor Palpatine, railing against bureaucrats; and economists as Jedi Knights. But threatened US trade taxes have real consequences. Investors’ hope is the precedent of Trump’s rapid retreat from taxing Colombian imports.

As the Q4 corporate reporting season continues, Matt updates us on how the results have been coming in across equity sectors. We also discuss recent performance of US equities, a near-term performance outlook, along with considerations when it comes to positioning within US equities. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump reiterated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of products from Canada and Mexico, possibly excepting oil consumers. Several US refineries are set up to process Canadian and Mexican, not US, oil. The speed of Trump’s retreat from taxing US coffee drinkers is a reminder of the unpredictability around tariff policy.

Businesses have greeted the post-election environment with optimism, yet uncertainty remains as questions surround the timing and implementation of Trump 2.0 policies’ interplay with a seemingly more cautious Fed and slowing economy. Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to discuss the outlook and implications. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The returning US president has already helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He is now attempting to do the same for Russia and Ukraine. But what kind of deal looks likely and what would this mean for Europe’s economy and markets? Finally, which equity sectors could benefit most from peace? Featured in this episode is Themis Themistocleous, CIO for EMEA, alongside co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates, which seemingly displeased US President Trump. Uncertainty about the inflationary impact Trump’s policies might reduce the chance of a March rate cut, but characterizing policy as restrictive does suggest future rate cuts are plausible. Overt criticism of the Fed by Trump risks tilting the Fed toward hawkishness in any close call decision, to prove their independence.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the developments surrounding DeepSeek and the impact felt by US technology and energy companies. Burkhard also shares some interesting boots-on-the-ground takeaways from recently attended deep-tech conferences, along with weighs the impacts of the global race for energy resources.

Host, Kiran Ganesh, and colleagues present updated tariff scenarios, explore the implications of recent advancements in AI for investors, and share strategies to manage heightened market volatility.

The Federal Reserve decides on rates—the market consensus is for unchanged rates today. US President Trump advocates for rate cuts, but that view point may be biased by their experiences as a borrower. The rate outlook is complicated. Underlying inflation pressures are modest, and keeping real interest rates stable may require rate cuts.

A wide-ranging fixed income discussion on yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2025. Leslie and Gene also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Following what has been a busy first week in office for President Trump, Shane recaps some of the notable executive actions, developments, and travel. Plus, we update on the progress of cabinet hearings and confirmations, along with preview what a timeline for tariffs could look like in the coming days and weeks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors’ sudden discovery of China’s DeepSeek arguably reminds markets of the Fukushima Effect —people adapt when facing adversity (e.g. restrictions on China’s access to technology). On a larger note, output economics and GDP tend to ignore the benefits of efficiency. A culture that venerates GDP is a culture that may miss out on the benefits of a more efficient world.

Despite markets reacting favorably to week one of Trump 2.0, Jason explains why expectations should be managed when it comes to market price action. We also preview this week’s round of Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC meeting. Plus, thoughts on developments surrounding DeepSeek, and the impact to the US Technology Sector. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s industrial profits grew in December, with profit margins seemingly more or less stable. This has a bearing beyond China’s borders because if China were “dumping” products by exporting below cost, profitability would suffer. Dumping might still happen in certain sectors, but the official data does not support it happening generally.

We provide a performance update and outlook for the municipal bond market, along with share views on positioning within the asset class. Plus, spend time assessing the implications of the ongoing California wildfires to muins. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter point, as had been signaled in the media in advance. The BoJ appears to have confidence in rising wages, and like other central banks is following the trend of inflation (the difference is that Japan’s trend is rising). We expect one further rate increase this year.

Jason and Paul rejoin in-studio to share their revised assessment as to whether the US economy is still on track to mirror a “Roaring 20s” scenario this decade, this as we’ve reached the mid-point of the 2020s. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s December trade data had weaker imports and stronger exports than had been expected. Exports to the US declined, which rather argues against pre-trade tax stockpiling in the US (though there may still be time for that). The absence of stockpiling would likely speed the impact of trade taxes on US consumers.

On the first episode of Viewpoints for 2025, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspective from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. We also spend some discussing the implications of Trump 2.0 to European economies and markets.

Amantia rejoins the conversation in-studio to share some thoughts around the implications of recently signed executive orders by President Trump as it relates to both climate and energy. We also touch on implications for companies, along with takeaways and recommendations for investors when it comes to sustainable investing. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK government borrowing rose in December. Higher interest payments on inflation-linked debt were a significant part of this. Inflation-linked debt is currently tied to the retail price measure (this will change at the end of the decade. Higher energy prices—themselves a function of government policy—can raise interest payments via inflation.

As President Trump’s second term is now underway, Jason performs a “fit check” assessment of the US economy and markets. Tune in for the takeaways, along with CIO’s positioning views and investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Amid the woes, where are the opportunities in Europe’s car industry? President-elect Trump has threatened to slap higher tariffs on European carmakers, Chinese competition is intensifying, and demand for autos in Europe is flagging. But it’s not all bad news for investors. Featured is Rolf Ganter, Head, CIO Equities Europe, with co-hosts, Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters

South Korea’s trade data for the first 20 days of January showed a decline in exports—there were more holidays this year than last, affecting the data. Chip exports remain strong, but exports to the US, EU, and China all declined.