UBS On-Air: Market Moves

ECB President Lagarde almost sounded like an economist yesterday, noting inflation pressures could go up or they could go down. While highlighting the increased economic uncertainty of 2025, Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the direction of ECB rates is down. There are seven ECB speakers jostling for media attention today.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the absence of an anticipated “Trump-put” amidst a rotation occurring across global equities. Burkhard also considers whether this current downturn is more of a short-term “panic-attack”, or the start of a new Bear Market. Plus, thoughts on how investors should position, and where to focus.

We examine how China has been responding to challenges on the trade-front, along with highlight how ex-US markets (including China) have been performing as of late. Plus, some takeaways from the National People’s Congress meeting, and a broader review of preferences across emerging market equities. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump imposed and retreated from aggressive taxes on US users of Canadian steel and aluminum, and Canada retreated from a surcharge on exports of electricity to the US. Canadian steel and aluminum are caught by yesterday’s global 25% tax on US consumers. The EU responded with taxes on its consumers (buyers of bourbon are badly hit), but the EU consumers have substitutes as taxes are only against US products.

Join CIO for a discussion on tariff uncertainty, inflation, and the implications of the artificial intelligence rally, hosted by Anthony Pastore and featuring Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation CIO Americas and Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist CIO Americas.

As potential risks around macro-and tariff-related uncertainties emerge in 2025, how should investors position in tech and take advantage of increasing near-term volatility? Plus, as German election results shape market sentiment, what's the outlook for European stocks and what tools can investors leverage?

Equity markets are not just about economics (equity analysts do not always listen to economists). However, shifting perceptions of economic risk seem to be behind recent US equity market moves. 2025 started with solid economic foundations in the US and other developed economies.

As US growth concerns persist, Jason explores how at risk the economy is of slowing (and the possibility of sliding into a recession). We also cover the latest on tariffs aimed by the US at Canada and Mexico, along with touch on policy and market developments in Germany. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest market outlook and portfolio positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s consumer prices moved into deflation in February. Some of this is due to the timing of the lunar new year, and some of it is the impact of warmer weather on food prices (food has a higher weighting in China’s inflation calculation than in developed economies). However, markets are concerned that the low inflation environment does not suggest robust domestic demand.

We close out the trading week by assessing the latest round of jobs data, and what the numbers indicate about the health of the US labor market. Plus, take an inventory of tariff announcements, preview next week’s inflation readings, and reflect on recent equity market volatility. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Having imposed aggressive taxes on US consumers at the start of the week, US President Trump partially retreated from taxing Mexican and Canadian imports yesterday (assuming goods are compliant with the revised NAFTA). The taxes are delayed until 2 April, but markets will likely price in more retreats.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the big rotation unfolding across global markets, with the recent outperformance of global equities, and underperformance of US equities. Burkhard explains why the “go global” thesis remains intact, along with shares his take on intertest-rates, inflation and gold.

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, has promised “independence” from the US, having become convinced that the Trump administration is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”. As a result, he hopes for significant spending on defense and infrastructure. Against that backdrop, and after years of lackluster growth, Germany’s DAX index has been among the best performing markets. Can the spending plans add to the nation’s renewed momentum? Featured in this episode is Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, alongside host Christopher Swann.

US President Trump sounded a partial retreat from the latest trade taxes, granting US car companies a one-month exemption for car parts traded under the revised NAFTA. This rather highlights the fact that US consumers and companies, not foreigners, pay trade taxes. One month does not allow for much response—some stockpiling, presumably a lot of lobbying. Market reactions seem to signal a belief that trade tax retreats are possible, but the limited response suggests concern about the lack of policy coherence.

To help you navigate an evolving landscape, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues will delve into the latest developments in US trade, domestic, and foreign policy, examining their potential impacts on investors and offering strategies for positioning in the months ahead.

US President Trump’s address to Congress echoed speeches at campaign rallies. Markets have limited interest in much of the content. Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create “a little disturbance”, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing US consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifted for consumers of Canadian and Mexican products as soon as today.

We cover a wide range of timely topics, including tariffs and US trade policy, efforts for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, along with US government funding and budgetary efforts. Plus, a preview of President Trump’s address to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent geopolitical developments, and how global markets (including oil) have responded over the past few days. Plus, an assessment of market valuations, along with outlook scenarios. To conclude, Burkhard reflects on his unforgettable cycling journey through the Swiss Alps, and cites intersections with the world of investing and the rich history of Switzerland.

US President Trump lashed out in several directions yesterday, suspending military aid to Ukraine and aggressively taxing US consumers of imports from Canada, China, and Mexico. Although Trump inherited a strong economy, these moves increase US recession risks. The Ukraine decision has economic consequences. It may increase international hostility to Russia and the US, affecting sanction resolve and trade negotiations.

While there is a lot of noise for investors to sift through, there are some things we know with relative confidence. As for other things, we will have to make conjectures. Jason joins to identify just that, along with reviews the latest allocation recommendations, and messages in focus for the UBS Chief Investment Office. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The idea of a coalition of the willing pushing for a one-month ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is probably neutral, economically. Things like defense spending or energy supplies are unlikely to be affected significantly by this move.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Alex Obaza, Portfolio Manager, T.Rowe Price. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Equity markets reacted to social media posts from US President Trump. Trump is often more coherent on social media than in off-the-cuff comments, and these remarks made clear an intention to hike taxes—US buyers will need 25% more cash to buy goods from Canada or Mexico, and another 10% cash to buy from China. The China threat is credible, and in line with our expectations. Markets are not inclined to believe the threats to tariff goods from Canada and Mexico.

US President Trump confused investors by appearing to delay taxing US consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods. The White House then “clarified” that the tax delay was not decided. Such taxes would be very visible to US consumers, at a time when Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and inflation have fallen, making repeated retreats likely.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains how and why market activity (and performance) has started to shift from the US to the rest of the world this year, and how investors should consider positioning their portfolios accordingly.

Many investors want to know the possibility of changes to federal income tax policies, and what the changes might mean for their personal tax burden. However, it's not just the future of taxes and tax policy that matters, it's where your income level falls along the income brackets that ultimately matters. We identify where you can focus your attention so that you can better manage your lifetime tax burden and discuss strategies to help you improve your after-tax wealth potential. Featured are Justin Waring, Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US equity markets were a little disturbed by a sharp decline in a consumer confidence survey—but these surveys are distorted by partisan politics. Depending on the cable news network one watches, the US is either an unpleasant version of Panem from “The Hunger Games” or a Panglossian paradise where all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. Clear economic signals are hardly likely to come from economic surveys in such a situation.

US President Trump repeated their intention to aggressively tax US consumers of goods from Canada and Mexico, starting next week. Markets do not entirely believe Trump. Taxing everyday essentials like propane gas and avocado on toast would be very visible, very quickly to US consumers. Polls suggest only 32% of US voters approve of Trump’s management of inflation.

Jason weighs whether the main macroeconomic debate in 2025 relevant for the markets may be whether a Trump policy put is more or less likely than a policy error. We also reflect on Friday’s notable selloff across US equity markets, and recap Germany’s election results. Plus, a look at CIO’s near-term market outlook, and positioning views. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As with many other elections in the past 12 months, the Germans voted against their incumbent government. The CDU’s Merz is expected to become the next chancellor (coalition negotiations typically take months). After the results, Merz compared US election interference to that of Russia, and suggested that Europe would need to become independent of US security.

Against the backdrop of a potential shutdown of the US government next month, Shane updates us on a range of priorities being addressed by Congress. We also update on the status of remaining cabinet-level confirmation hearings, along with ongoing negotiations for a Russia-Ukraine war resolution. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We discuss the European Union Omnibus regulations, along with Trump administration executive orders that have attracted attention to the sustainability landscape. Featured in-studio are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer of the Sustainable Thematic Equities team at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that former US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s debt issuance plan would continue, implying no increase in longer-dated Treasury bonds and lowering 10-year yields. This support is threatened by talk of a “DOGE dividend” to taxpayers. There is a considerable gulf between claimed government savings and economists’ view of reality. Refunding illusionary savings would be a deficit-financed stimulus check.

Paul rejoins us in-studio to answer some of the most commonly asked questions our business-owner clients have regarding the M&A, Private Equity, Venture Capital, and IPO space in 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting gave a cautious policy outlook. Nervousness about the economic consequences of US President Trump’s policies was clear. In particular, the potential for Trump to ignite a further wave of inflation was cited. Companies seem more willing to pass on import tax increases to end consumers than in Trump’s first term (perhaps because consumers have become more accustomed to price increases). The potential for profit-led inflation may exaggerate that.

US President Trump threatened more taxes on US consumers, focused on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Trump rapidly retreated from trade taxes that would be very visible to US consumers—Gen Z would notice tariff-induced inflation for avocado on toast. Less visible taxes (like aluminum) have endured. The new proposals are partially visible—taxing new cars raises second-hand car prices and the cost of car insurance—but probably sufficiently disguised as to prevent a repeat retreat.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on his recent travels to Africa and attendance at technology conferences across Europe - shedding light on the continental differences of our digital economy, along with opportunities to be aware of. Burkhard also previews the upcoming elections in Germany, and what clients and investors should be mindful of.

The Swiss franc has long been a safe haven during uncertain times - second only to the US dollar for many investors. But what makes the currency of the world's 20th largest economy so appealing? The small Alpine nation also boasts an impressively broad industrial base and an array of innovative companies. So, which other Swiss assets should global investors be considering? Featured in this episode is Daniel Kalt, CIO for Switzerland, alongside co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

Jason drops by the 1285 studio to share his assessment of recent economic data, including on inflation and retail sales. We also take inventory of recent policy developments out of Washington DC, spanning DOGE to tariffs, to Congressional budget negotiations. Plus, thoughts on overall market activity, and a look at positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK labor market data was stronger than forecast, with some positive revisions to previous month’s data. Anguished corporate cries about tax increases and related projections of mass unemployment do not (so far) appear in any of the data. Employment growth seems especially strong amongst the middle-aged, who matter because they have an important degree of spending power.

An assessment of federal policy proposals and potential implications to the muni market, along with a YTD muni performance check, and a look a muni investment trends. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, and David Perlman, ETF Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Join the Chief Investment Office for a discussion on the executive order Trump signed over the weekend to impose additional tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, the implications for investors, and more. The event is hosted by Amantia Muhedini and features David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, and John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US.

Will new tariff policies derail economic momentum in the US? Does gold have further room to rally in 2025? Will the global easing cycle continue to gain traction in 2025? CIO's Belinda Peeters brings you the latest on this week's market themes.

Selected European countries are meeting in Paris to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. This is not likely to be market moving. Europe has allocated about 14% more money to Ukraine than the US, and countries like Germany do spend military aid on new production rather than using existing stockpiles. However, the sums involved are still economically small, limiting their impact.

Yesterday was US President Trump’s very big announcement on reciprocal tariffs, which turned out to be a plan to investigate taxing US consumers at a future date. Markets had to decide whether the president was being a protectionist or a pushover, and for now are erring toward pushover. The delay is seen as an opportunity to do “deals”. So far, such deals have been more spin than substance.

Yesterday’s US consumer price data provoked some unease in bond markets. This is mainly the fault of Federal Reserve Chair Powell—not because Powell’s policies drove inflation higher, but because Powell’s “data dependency” mantra means markets overreact to any data point. Egg prices are not controllable (not even by presidential executive order), but the fact that food price inflation is creeping up may have implications for other policies that are hurting US farmers. Today’s producer price data may show companies anticipating tariffs.

US January consumer price inflation will be largely unaffected by US President Trump’s trade taxes (though prices are occasionally raised in anticipation of tariffs). Unless tax increases are very aggressive, nothing Trump does will have a bearing on first quarter inflation. However, the composition of consumer prices is politically important.

US President Trump stated there will be no exceptions to aggressively taxing US buyers of foreign metals (due to start on 4 March, giving time for US companies to plead for exceptions). If there is no retreat, this will reduce US steel consumers’ competitiveness via higher import and domestic costs (if domestic metal producers raise prices under cover of the tariff). Retail consumers are less likely to notice the tax, unless job losses are explicitly linked to it.