UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 19 January 2026.

Events around Greenland have four main areas of market focus. Threatened US tariffs appear more serious than those relating to Iran, and may be overturned by the US Supreme Court. However, they imply US consumer prices of goods from the EU and UK will increase 4% to 10% (within about six months). This may reinforce the narrative of the US affordability crisis.

Steve Chiavarone is Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Multi-Asset Group at Federated Hermes. Steve drops by the 1285 podcast studio in New York to share his thoughts on the current macroeconomic environment, and investment views across asset classes. We also touch on expectations for the Q4 corporate earnings season, monetary policy in 2026, and investment risks to be mindful of. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US has long been the birthplace and powerhouse of private equity, accounting for over half of global fundraising and setting the pace for the industry worldwide. But Europe’s private equity market is developing fast, even as global economic headwinds persist. What’s driving the shift of economic activity away from public markets, and where are the most promising opportunities for investors on the continent today? In this episode of “Across the Pond,” special guest Viral Patel, CEO of Blackstone Private Equity Strategies, joins hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters, along with Antoinette Zuidweg, CIO alternatives investment strategist, to discuss the evolution of private equity in Europe, the future of the 60-40 portfolio, and how investors can navigate the changing landscape on both sides of the Atlantic.

Taiwan has made an agreement with the US that will see US importers paying a 15% tariff on Taiwanese products. The 15% number might have additional significance—if the US Supreme Court rules some tariffs illegal, one alternative route is for President Trump to impose a universal 15% tariff. Taiwan pledged to increase investment in the US—some of this will be already planned investment, and markets have learned not to take such announcements as definitive.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning how Washington is addressing housing affordability, geopolitical points of interest such as Iran and Venezuela, the upcoming SCOTUS ruling on the Trump administration’s use of IEEPA for tariff policy, the U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into Fed Chair Powell, and where negotiations stand to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government comes the end of January. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK monthly GDP data was stronger than expected, and revised stronger for the previous month—but the monthly GDP data is economists’ version of white noise (a background hum to help one sleep). Manufacturing and services data was stronger and generally revised up. Trade data showed a lot more volatility in previous metal trade, and stronger exports (away from the US). European trade data should also show normal non-US trade.

Join Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, for an assessment of the current macro and market environment as we have entered 2026. Hosted by Fatou Konteh, Multi-Asset Specialist. Recorded on 26.01.07

Are there reasons for staying bullish on the markets entering 2026? Burkhard has twelve, and we cover a handful of them on the first episode of Viewpoints to begin the year. Burkhard shares is assessment and outlook for markets, and where to find opportunity.

US December consumer price inflation is not likely to push the Federal Reserve into cutting rates immediately. The numbers were not especially threatening, although they hint at upward pressure on the PCE deflator (by repute, the Fed’s favored inflation measure). However, the interpolation rate (using less precise prices) hit a record 40%, raising quality questions. Politically sensitive prices like groceries soared, suggesting affordability will remain an issue.

The CIO municipal research team drops by to share a 2026 muni market outlook, along with their performance expectations across muni sub-sectors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Republican senators’ concerns over the criminal investigation of the Federal Reserve might delay the confirmation of the next Fed Chair. Any nominee from US President Trump is also likely to have to place additional emphasis on their independence to try and prove they are above politics. This might impact future policy decisions.

We start the week by reflecting on market performance in the early days of 2026, along with last week’s flurry of policy announcements and economic data releases. Jason explains what this all means for the investment outlook, and the prospects for further Fed rate cuts. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Powell. In an unusually explicit statement, Powell suggested that this was because of the Fed’s refusal to meet US President Trump’s demands for rate cuts. Bond and currency market reactions signal concerns this may be a challenge to Fed independence.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 11 January 2026.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, & Letty Zemaitis, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Fresh off the release of the December employment numbers, Paul drops by to reflect on the data and health checks the U.S. labor market. Plus, a look at growth expectations for the U.S. economy in 2026, and an outlook for monetary policy against the current macro backdrop. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German industrial production was stronger than expected and (of course) previous data was revised stronger too. November exports were weaker, but US importers have been scrambling to minimize their tax liabilities which has distorted normal patterns of trade.

Affordability remains in focus. US President Trump pledged yesterday to prevent institutional investors buying single family homes, explicitly because of affordability. This follows a series of reversals on highly visible tariffs. These are single issue policies—aimed at tackling narrow problems, rather than being a part of a broader platform.

Following the developments over this past weekend in Venezuela, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, Alberto Rojas, joins for a timely conversation to explain what factors should be considered against a backdrop of complexity and uncertainty. Featured is Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging discussion on yield, credit markets, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity exist within fixed income as we enter 2026. Leslie and Gene also spend time sharing their overall outlooks, along with views when it comes to monetary policy, and positioning across the asset class. Featured is Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German November retail sales were weaker than expected, but the October data was revised substantially higher. Throughout 2025, German retail sales data was nearly always revised substantially higher, and there is no reason to suppose that trend will not continue. German consumers are more persistently exuberant than initially reported.

Preliminary December German and French inflation data is not likely to interest markets. The German figures should show moderation, but some of this is a lower weighting to package holidays (which tend to add to inflation)—a technical shift not necessarily indicative of any dramatic changes in inflation pressures. The ECB is likely to remain on its course of masterful inactivity (markets like the ECB being inactive).

The Snapshot returns after a holiday hiatus - Jason Draho begins the year by sharing investment themes and risks to watch for in the months ahead, along with positioning recommendations. We also refresh on CIO’s expectations for monetary and fiscal policy, the U.S. macroeconomic environment, and market performance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Over the past two weeks, perceptions of affordability seem to have shaped US administration policy. Tariffs on furniture imports are delayed, and proposed tariffs on Italian pasta imports are cut. Furniture prices moved from deflation in 2023-24 into inflation last year, although consumers are less sensitive to furniture price changes. Pasta is a small share of consumer spending, but a visible price. If perceptions of affordability are shaping policy, investors need to broaden their focus beyond the precise measurement offered by CP

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 4 January 2026.

Join Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, and Nicole Goldberger, Head of Global Multi-Asset Portfolio Management and Portfolio Manager for UBS Asset Management, for an assessment of the current macro and market environment as we head into 2026. Hosted by Fatou Konteh, Multi-Asset Specialist. Recorded on 25.12.03

The U.S. has dominated headlines in 2025, with investors focused on AI breakthroughs, policy shifts from the Trump administration, and the outlook for Fed rates. Yet, so far this year, European equities have outperformed their U.S. counterparts in U.S. dollar terms - and the outlook for 2026 looks even brighter. What’s fueling this shift, and why should investors take a closer look at Europe now? In this episode of “Across the Pond,” Themis Themistocleous, Head of the Chief Investment Office for EMEA, and hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters explore the drivers behind Europe’s improving prospects and highlight the most attractive opportunities for the year ahead.

The Bank of Japan did what was expected and raised rates a quarter point. Dramatic headlines that this is the highest rate in thirty years should not be taken too seriously (parallels to 1995 are not helpful). BoJ governor Ueda emphasised wages as being important to determining future policy decisions.

The 250 years of U.S. innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of U.S. economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of aviation in the U.S. by referencing the next publication of the series: Into the wild blue yonder - Aviation. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Nathaniel Gabrial, U.S. Industrials and Materials Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On the final CIO Strategy Snapshot for 2025, Jason reflects on recent economic data-point releases, along with the December FOMC meeting, and assesses the macro and policy environment as we head into 2026. Plus, Jason unveils his choice for the 2025 finance word of the year and shares his early WOTY choices for 2026. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB and the Bank of England meet. The ECB decision can be dismissed with a shrug of indifference. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates, but the depth of division amongst policy setters is a focus. More rate cuts are likely next year.

The 250 years of U.S. innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of U.S. economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of electrification in the U.S. by referencing the next publication of the series: By the dawn's early light - Electrification. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Jay Dobson, U.S. Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we soon conclude 2025, Burkhard reflects on what was expected in the markets and what came as a surprise. Plus, a look at eight lessons learned. The Viewpoints podcast will resume in January 2026 - happy holidays and thank you for listening in 2025!

The US employment data yesterday raised several red flags. Existing data quality problems were compounded by the government shutdown. Looking at year-to-date trends, the total number of jobs in the US has risen, but at a slower pace than in the past four years. Manufacturing jobs have continued to fall. Average hourly earnings are not the same thing as wage or income growth, but the pace has slowed and may be overtaken by inflation in the coming months.

Kurt drops by for the final POTUS 47 conversation of 2025 as we discuss how affordability could influence policy efforts by both the White House and Congress in 2026. Plus, a look at expectations for monetary policy in the year ahead against the backdrop of current U.S. economic conditions coupled with anticipated leadership changes at the Fed. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is US employment report Tuesday, with a bowdlerized October report (no household survey) and a rushed November report of dubious quality. Response rates to surveys are already horribly low, and whatever motivates someone to complete a survey most people ignore at a time when the government is shut down suggests that this data is likely to be subject to distortions.

We turn focus to Eurozone equities and highlight positioning considerations heading into 2026, along with risks and headwinds investors should be mindful of. Plus, thoughts on valuations and a look at CIO’s recent upgrade of Eurozone equities. Featured is Matt Gilman, Head, CIO Europe Equity Strategy, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week, the veil of ignorance shrouding the US economy is lifted a little—but only a little. US employment data (due Tuesday) was already low quality, and that is likely made worse by the effects of the government shutdown. Consumer price data (due Thursday) has been interpolating (or “guessing”) more and more, and has surveyed fewer prices in fewer locations this year.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 14 December 2025.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

As we close out the series for 2025, Shane drops by for a Capitol Hill roundup as we cover developments surrounding Congressional votes on healthcare legislation, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Plus, some thoughts on renewed bipartisan efforts to ban Congressional stock trading. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Paul drops by for timely reflections on the December FOMC meeting and provides a health-check on the U.S. economy. We also cover upcoming data-points of interest through year-end, along with expectations for monetary policy in 2026. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve once again mimicked the style of the Bank of England. There were multiple dissents. Governor Miran presumably has a bleak outlook, with his attempts at aggressive rate cuts getting rejected again. Two Fed Presidents voted for unchanged rates, presumably reflecting concern about the rising US cost of living. The dissents suggest the next Fed Chair may have difficulty asserting control over policy, especially if they command less respect in the Fed and markets.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard talks about the renaissance of European stocks and banks, and spotlights the roaring markets and economies of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Plus, some highlights from a cycling journey which spanned Zurich to the Italian city of Genua.

As 2026 quickly approaches, Paul drops by to discuss what small business owners should know about the policy and macro environment heading into the new year. Plus, a look at considerations when it comes to the potential impacts of Artificial Intelligence to the business environment, and how the dealmaking landscape could further evolve. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve’s December 2025 policy decision is finally revealed. The Fed has seemingly not attempted to change general expectations of a rate cut. Conspiracy theorists might suggest not delaying the meeting until the release of employment data implies Fed Chair Powell is confident about cutting—but there is likely to be some dissent. Dissent may cause trouble for Powell’s successor, if they command less respect than Powell.

Tune in for a timely year-end and yeah-ahead conversation on the municipal bond market, which include 2025 performance reflections and 2026 performance expectations. Featured are Daniel Close, Head of Municipals at Nuveen, and Doug Vissicchio, Head of Municipal Sales, Trading and Underwriting at UBS. Hosted by Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Germany’s October trade surplus was larger than expected, principally because of a steeper fall in import demand. Globally, trade away from the US remains robust and (more or less) normal.

We preview this week’s economic data releases, along with the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at some potential market-moving events to watch out for through year-end, and thoughts on what factors are supporting the equity rally as indexes once again approach record levels. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy