UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Dan Hyman, Senior Portfolio Manager with PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s remarks yesterday were a compilation of recent social media posts in both tone and content. While there were signals of an imminent US retreat from the Gulf, the aggressive remarks shaped market perceptions. US escalation (however short-lived) risks being met with an Iranian response, threatening more infrastructure damage in the Gulf. That could extend the economic damage of the war well beyond any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

UBS Art Advisory Specialist, Rachel Peart, sits down with Emily Kaplan, Senior Vice President and Senior Specialist, Postwar and Contemporary Art at Christie’s, to dive deeper on how auction estimates, reserves, and guarantees are set and used strategically. They examine bidder psychology and key valuation factors supported by notable examples. The episode closes with spring 2026 season highlights, led by three works from Agnes Gund’s collection and a major minimalism collection.

The declining number of market traders old enough to remember “The X Files” are muttering “I want to believe”. Markets want to hear good news about the Gulf war; trading negative risks would be very difficult. US President Trump is to speak tonight. This may or may not be useful, depending on whether Trump stays on script. Trump did indicate the US could retreat from the Gulf without a deal with Iran—that shortens the expected war timeline, as requiring a deal would first require direct negotiations, which do not appear to be happening.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, & Letty Zemaitis, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

The Wall Street Journal reports US President Trump is considering a retreat from the Gulf without establishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors, temperamentally inclined to look on the bright side, are focusing on the retreat and not the fact that an Iranian Hormuz toll would act a bit like US tariffs.

Natalie Adomait is a Managing Partner and Chief Operating Officer in Brookfield's Energy Group. We discuss what’s happening in the energy market globally and the forces driving demand, along with an outlook for renewable energy, and how the energy sector is being shaped by artificial intelligence. Recorded on 26 February 2026 Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last week brought reprieves to US military strikes on Iranian power facilities, but not much in the way of credible ceasefire negotiations in the US-Iran conflict. That means uncertainty persists as investors await for signs of either escalation in the conflict or de-escalation. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide some clarity and guidance around portfolio positioning. Host Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s weekend rhetoric seemingly had little market impact. Attacks on industrial plants in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain remind investors that wartime disruption will continue after the war. Houthi involvement raises the risk of disruption to Suez-bound shipping. Iran is allowing limited oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in what may become a more normal process.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 28 March 2026.

The sixth edition of CIO’s 250 years of US innovation series, E pluribus unum, shows how the internet’s decentralized, standards-based architecture unified innovators, accelerated globalization, reshaped trade, and created new opportunities for businesses and individuals worldwide. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology & Telecom Equity Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jon Cheigh, is the President & Chief Investment Officer of Cohen & Steers. Jon joined Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas, at the 1285 podcast studio to exchange views on a range of topics, including how the current geopolitical landscape is impacting markets, where we are in the real estate cycle, investing in public vs. private markets, along with how artificial intelligence is shaping innovation and the investment landscape. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Emerging market bonds have held up well despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, while equities have been more exposed. We discuss the factors that are driving this divergence, and how investors should consider positioning in emerging markets given the current risks and opportunities. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Any economist asked to assess the economic and market outlook can only offer a deep sigh of resignation. As with earlier trade deadlines, US President Trump has again extended the deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the consequences of war deadlines are more serious than those of trade.

If I have a tax bill coming due soon, should I sell investments to raise cash - potentially realizing taxes and missing out on gains - or should I borrow and pay interest on the loan so that I can keep the portfolio invested? Dan Scansaroli, Head of Global Investment Management Multi-Asset Solutions & Co-Head Investment Management Americas, and Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, help answer this questions and examine the tradeoff. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US insists peace talks are taking place with Iran. Markets are inclined to be skeptical of US statements in the absence of Iranian verification. The US 15-point peace plan was rejected, which was not a surprise for investors. Investors’ attitude toward the US’s Friday deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is to assume the same “flexibility” is applied to trade deal deadlines.

Leslie and Letty drop by to share a performance update and outlook for the asset class (including an outlook for the 10-yr), along with guidance around positioning in the current environment. We also touch on the spotlight article from the March edition of the Fixed Income Strategist publication which talks about the impacts of artificial intelligence to credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, & Letty Zemaitis, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets desperately want to believe in the positive. Focus on the apparent 15-point US plan to end the war has received more attention than Iranian dismissals of this, or the fact that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is minimal. Domestic US politics may be reinforcing the perception that the US wishes to exit the war. The Florida state house district that includes the Mar-A-Lago estate was won by a Democrat who campaigned on the affordability crisis, despite US President Trump endorsing and voting (by mail) for the Republican candidate.

Paul drops by the podcast studio to share some considerations for business owners on how to navigate the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. We also cover what the next leg of the AI trade could look like, along with assess near-term market implications of the U.S. midterm elections later this year. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A timely catch-up with Shane as we discuss how the U.S.-Iran War might evolve over the near-term, along with where congressional negotiations stand to resolve the Department of Homeland Security funding lapse. Plus, with a slim House GOP majority, we discuss the likelihood of the SAVE America Act being signed into law. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the current geopolitical environment, and in turn, how cheap markets might become, and how high energy prices could surge. We also compare how preparation when it comes to ones portfolio, or ones arctic sledge can make all the difference when having to weather a storm.

Investing challenges remain. Markets react to social media posts and stories, not to verifiable information. The lack of information is complicating objective economic assessments. Investors may start looking for leading indicators of the next narrative (whether fake news or real). The Financial Times reports that there were unusually large oil market trades ahead of US President Trump’s social media post yesterday—the risk is that investors will regard sudden, outsized positioning in markets as a leading signal of an impending change in the US administration’s narrative.

As the U.S.-Iran War enters week four, we assess the impacts to financial markets and the risk of escalation. We also assess the outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting and what it suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, a look at portfolio positioning recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors have two related problems in pricing risks around the Gulf war. US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives, this is all markets have to respond to. The result is volatility.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 22 March 2026.

Investment by armchair generals seems to be the fashion. Markets are reacting to political comments about the length of the Gulf war. With uncertainty about US objectives, it is hard to for investors to assess how much more fighting is required to achieve the “end goal”. The economic war may also continue after the US withdraws. US gasoline prices keep rising—average prices may reach USD 4/gallon this week.

Attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure impacted financial markets. Investors have partially looked through short-term increases in energy prices, assuming consumers and businesses will find the means to adapt. Damaging infrastructure raises the risk of prices staying higher for longer, extending the damage beyond the ability of economies to adapt. US President Trump’s urgent social media posting on the attacks suggests some awareness of domestic economic and political costs, perhaps reinforcing investors’ probability of an early US withdrawal.

The Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave policy unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference excites attention for three reasons. 1. Powell may stay as Fed Chair beyond May, so is a less lame “lame duck” leader. 2. Markets want to know the Fed’s reaction to oil prices and the war. US retail gasoline prices are almost exactly a dollar (35.5%) above 2026 lows, having risen every day for four weeks. The Fed’s concern is second-round effects.

Muni tax-equivalent yields are attractive and credit is resilient but elevated geopolitical uncertainties and weaker technicals in March call for balancing risk and return. We discuss with Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has seemingly been hit by Iranian attacks—the UAE recently stopped sharing missile and drone intercept data. This pushed oil prices higher. British Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai and other regional destinations until June. US President Trump reiterated pleas for help, saying countries were eager to assist (declining to name them). Markets are likely to see-saw between concerns over damage to oil infrastructure, and hopes that the US may look for an exit.

We are now in the third week of the US-Iran conflict and investors remain focused on how long it could last and the potential economic consequences. There are other developments relevant for the investment outlook, including economic data and how the Fed incorporates the oil price shock into its decision-making at the FOMC meeting this week. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses this all, and how position portfolios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economic theory often assumes perfect information. This is obviously only true in economic fantasies. Social media and fake news risk distorting real-world market prices. The Gulf war is contributing to this, with governments seeking to influence social media influencers and television reports, or not giving out information at all. This encourages fake news and risks discrediting accurate information, undermining market pricing

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 15 March 2026.

The US government’s views on the Gulf war and its consequences seem to be contradictory. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz was not being mined—later clarified by officials to mean that it probably was. US President Trump asserted US strength as an oil producer, then called for emergency intermeeting rate cuts (a crisis measure to prevent imminent recession). Iranian policy is consistent—the strait will remain closed.

The IEA announced it would orchestrate a record release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Another three ships were attacked in the Gulf. Oil prices rose over USD100/barrel. In the absence of a coherent US strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver.