UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We examine the current situation in Venezuela, including a look at the opportunities and challenges facing Venezuela’s economy. Plus, thoughts as to how Venezuela’s recovery could affect the region and international investors, along with an outlook for the country’s financial assets. Featured are Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, & Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK’s Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.

Jason sets the table for a busy week ahead which includes several Mag 7 Q3 earnings reports, the highly anticipated APEC summit, and October FOMC meeting. Jason also suggests the two most important numbers in economics. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Dan Cassidy

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to have moved into a “dial down” phase after the recent escalation. While details will probably not be given until the proposed meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi later this week, the threatened 100% tariff on US consumers of China’s exports appears to have been removed.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - the October FOMC rate decision, and numerous Q3 corporate earnings releases. Recorded on 26 October 2025.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Dan Cassidy welcomes Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, for a timely update on China. Xingchen discusses CIO’s latest upgrades to China tech and offshore Chinese equities, the macro outlook and consumption trends, and the strategic priority of tech self-sufficiency highlighted in the latest Fourth Plenum. The conversation also covers how evolving US-China relations are shaping investor decisions. Tune in for key insights on China’s market drivers and what’s ahead.

US President Trump announced trade negotiations with Canada would end. Trump is unhappy with the Province of Ontario’s adverts, directly quoting US President Reagan arguing against tariffs on economic grounds. Previous negotiation breakdowns focused on policy issues, which were more readily resolved. However, only a limited part of US-Canada trade is affected by this, and precedent does suggest an eventual resolution.

Andrew Mattock is a Portfolio Manager focused on Chinese equities at Matthews Asia. We discuss the macro factors that have driven China’s markets, and how conditions might evolve in the months ahead. Plus, a look at how Artificial Intelligence and US trade policy might shape China’s market outlook, a review of market risk considerations, and how to approach an allocation to China. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 07 October 2025

There has been a small blip in the oil price following the US announcement that two Russian energy companies would be blacklisted. US President Trump intends to raise the issue of China’s Russian oil purchases with China’s President Xi next week (assuming that meeting goes ahead). In the context of the recent oil price decline, the overnight price move is economically negligible—politics is the only reason it gets any attention.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on the performance of gold and the drivers behind 2025 performance, along with how gold fits in with broader precious metals price action (including silver). Plus, a topical gold-related book recommendation.

Mindful of a flattening yield curve, Sudip and Jeannine join to explain where opportunities exist within munis. We also cover a performance update and outlook for the asset class, following a strong month of September which delivered a notable increase of inflows. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK September consumer price inflation was lower than expected. Air fares and fuel prices added, but food prices seem to have been subject to more general discounting. Previously, food prices mainly experienced discounts for supermarket loyalty card holders, which is not captured in the official inflation data.

Tune in for a performance update and outlook for emerging market equities. We also explain the thinking behind CIO’s recent upgrade of Emerging Market equities, along with Mainland China and the China tech sector. Plus, thoughts on key risk events and opportunities outside of China to be mindful of. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, & Laura Smith, Investment Specialist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korea’s early October export data showed strength when adjusted for differences in working days. As is now standard, semiconductor exports led this export surge. Auto exports were weakened by US tariffs, but trade with the rest of the world continues to be more or less as normal.

Jason joins to outline the current positioning recommendations and investment outlook from CIO (per the November UBS House View), including thinking behind the upgraded view on equities. We also cover investment risks for the current environment, highlight factors that underpin CIO’s investment outlook, and review the latest messages in focus. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets have been pushed around by trade, again. This time the reaction has been positive, as the US seems to have moved away from its more antagonistic position towards China. While the back and forth over trade has certainly done some economic damage, equity markets have reacted more dramatically than the real economy.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - September inflation data (CPI), ahead of the upcoming October Fed rate decision. Recorded on 19 October 2025.

Join Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy with UBS Asset Management, as he shares thoughts on the current macro environment and the factors that are driving markets. Host: Fatou Konteh, Multi-Asset Specialist. Recorded on 25.10.01

Join Jeff Hans, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. We also discuss the impact of Fed rate cuts to US equities, why investors should consider diversifying into value, along with a look at equity sector themes. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 25.09.25

Kurt drops by to update on where negotiations stand to end the U.S. government shutdown, which has now entered week three, along with the scope of impact thus far to financial markets and economic activity. Plus, thoughts on recent US-China trade tensions, and a look at potential next-steps for talks and broader U.S. trade policy. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are reports that the US administration will extend the delay in implementing tariffs on car part imports from two years to five years. This is a reaction to intensive domestic lobbying, and should probably not be taken as a signal for the wider trade tensions between the US and China.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes was not affected by the absence of a functioning government. There was evidence of prices reacting to trade tariffs, and a sense of labor market fragility. However, it is possible that elements of political partisanship are being captured in some of the reported concerns.

Shane joins mid-week for an update on the US government shutdown, including a look at impacted services, and where negotiations stand to re-open the government. We also touch on recent developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated that labor market concerns dominate inflation concerns in current policy. The lack of a functioning US federal government means this economic analysis depends on dubious quality data—private sector polls and potentially distorted anecdotal evidence—but Powell has shown a willingness to depend on such data in making past policy decisions.

Dave Fazekas is Partner & Head of North American Logistics with Ares Real Estate. Dave joins the podcast to discuss the current investment landscape for the Industrial Real Estate sector. We cover repricing and valuations, positioning considerations, and the impacts of factors such as macro uncertainty, US trade policy and tariffs, along with the rise of artificial intelligence. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have detected some shifting around in the US approach to trade with China. US Treasury Secretary Bessent was vocal in asserting that US President Trump and China’s President Xi will meet. Markets have extrapolated from past meetings to conclude that this will reduce the temperature of the trade rhetoric.

As investors begin a new week they are faced with the prospect of more trade uncertainty, the ongoing government shutdown, and the start of Q3 earnings season. Jason drops by to weigh in on these factors, along with Friday’s market sell-off, and CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

After US President Trump’s threat to impose additional significant tariffs on US buyers of goods from China, there has been a more conciliatory tone from both Trump and US Vice President Vance over the weekend. China’s September trade data showed stronger-than-expected exports (and imports). China’s data earlier this year was hinting at rerouting exports to help US importers avoid high tariffs.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - in the absence of government macro data releases we see positive micro catalysts in US banks earnings. We expect US bank earnings to be strong based on increased trading activity, strong capital markets and stable net interest margins.

Jan van Eck is the Chief Executive Officer of VanEck. We cover a wide range of top of mind topics for investors, including a look at the US macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, the impacts of US trade policy and artificial intelligence to economic activity, asset allocation views, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US government has announced that, regardless of the government shutdown, the September consumer price inflation data will be coming out (probably late). This is legally required, to enable the cost of living calculation that raises social security payments—huge swathes of US government spending are tied to inflation measures. The Federal Reserve should have this data when it meets.

We cover a range of sector-related topics, spanning concerns over subprime consumer credit and private credit, a preview of the upcoming Q3 earnings season for financials, sector positioning, and YTD performance across sub-sectors. Featured is Jeff Harwood, CIO Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

French politicians have been doing politics. This week’s prime minister, Lecornu, has suggested that a majority of national assembly members favor seeking a compromise budget. The suggestion is less fiscal tightening than was originally proposed. French assets are likely to continue to command a risk premium, but the bond market should remain orderly.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the third birthday of the current bull market and explains whether the bull has further room to run - assessing where are now and where we may be heading from here.

Economists traditionally do not worry too much about the growth impact of US government shutdowns, as the short-term loss of economic output tends to be paid back with an economic bounce when government reopens. It is still a net negative—contractors are not compensated for lost activity in a shutdown—but government workers get their back pay paid back. US President Trump has suggested that may not happen this time. If that were legally enforced, it would reduce the bounce of the bounce back.

Buying a second property overseas is dream for many. But can it also make financial sense? Our latest survey of global property provides a deep dive on where to find the best value and where the risk of a bubble bursting are greatest. How can investors manage currency risk and optimize leverage? In this week’s Across the Pond the Chief Investment Office’s real estate experts, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek join hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters to explore these issues and how property fits in your broader wealth strategy.

French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned, but will work for 48 hours—President Macron wants Lecornu to find a fiscal solution that would command National Assembly support. Despite obvious parallels, this is not the same as the UK’s Truss debacle. The French bond market remains orderly. French assets will command a risk premium, as investors wait to see whether a new government or new elections are the outcome.

Jason drops by the studio to explain why markets recently have continued their move higher, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and missing economic indicators. We also assess the health of the US labor market with available data-points from last week, and review CIO’s current portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan elected former economic security minister Takaichi as its leader, and thus Prime Minister-presumptive. Takaichi is seen as a pro-growth leader, and has signaled scepticism about the persistence of Japan’s inflation. This has supported equities, and may delay expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week – OpenAI Developer Day, continuing to monitor the US government shutdown.

Join Isaac Chota, 529 Product Manager at UBS, and special guest Kristia Adrian, Executive Director at JP Morgan and 529 specialist, as they break down everything you need to know about 529 plans in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Whether you are a parent, grandparent, or student, this episode covers the latest legislative changes, practical tips for maximizing your education savings, and expert insights on how families in the Tri-State area can make the most of their college planning. Curious about new rules or how to get started? Tune in for an informative and friendly conversation designed to help you take the next step in your education savings journey.

As the U.S. government shutdown continues, we examine the implications of a prolonged shutdown to economic activity. Plus, thoughts on the health of the U.S. labor market, and broader economy, along with an outlook for Fed monetary policy heading into 2026. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today is US employment report Friday—except it is not, because of the impenetrable fog of US government shutdown. As low fear of unemployment is a crucial line of defense keeping the US from recession, this is frustrating.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Dan Hyman, Senior Portfolio Manager with PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US government shutdown continues—Senate Republicans failed to pass their measure to end it. US President Trump indicated some federal government workers may be fired, not furloughed. That would doubtless face legal challenges, but might also increase fear of unemployment. Low fear of unemployment has helped keep US growth mediocre rather than recessionary. However, the federal government workforce is a very small share of US employment, which should limit economic damage.

As the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, Shane drops by to explain the scope of impact, along with next steps with respect to negotiations. Plus, thoughts on yesterday’s Oval Office announcement related to drug pricing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Alejo rejoins the podcast to discuss why the Fed’s current rate-cutting cycle is so important for emerging market investors. We then highlight compelling opportunities across emerging market equities, fixed income, and currencies. Plus, a review of key risks to consider. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Congress failed to either change the rules or come to an agreement to avert a government shutdown. Economists now lack official economic data from the US. Private sector data is a poor substitute. Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole —clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modelling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data.

Coming off a busy week of economic data releases, and with the September employment report due out in just days, Jason shares thoughts around what recent data suggests about the state of the U.S. economy. Plus, a look at recent market drivers, along with the macro and market impacts of a potential shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy