UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Today, US consumers give thanks by spending money—cutting savings rates to buy things they don’t need. Retailers will discount prices, but those discounts may be tempered as retailers also strive to pass on cost increases, or to increase profit margins under the tariff narrative and pretend it is all about cost increases.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book of anecdotal evidence changed little—a stable outlook with some concerns. In the details, manufacturers and retailers expressed concerns about tariff-induced cost increases. Lags in supply chains mean that for retailers it is probably a reference to the April tariffs. The absence of hiring continues in the labor market. The willingness of high income consumers to spend was noted.

US September retail sales data were old news, but slightly softer. While it is tempting to blame the accelerating US inflation rate, retail sales are nominal numbers and include inflation effects. Pessimism should be limited, however. The numbers will almost certainly be revised. Ongoing shifts in consumption patterns have consequences (Instagrammers showcasing their latest holiday contribute less to retail sales than buyers of new washing machines). Credit card data suggests no reason to panic.

Jason drops by to explain the contributing factors to recent volatility and pullbacks across parts of the equity market, and shares expectations for the upcoming December FOMC policy meeting (now that government issued economic data is once again flowing). Plus, thoughts on how investors should position portfolios heading into year-end, and into 2026. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocated a December rate cut, citing labor markets. If Waller is seriously concerned about employment, this would be a worrying signal for the US economy, where growth depends on low unemployment fears. If this is an attempt to be picked as US President Trump’s new Fed chair, markets are likely to focus on the potential accommodation and ignore suggestions of economic risk.

Join Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager for UBS Asset Management, for an assessment of the current macro and geopolitical environment. Recorded on 25.11.05

The lower house of the French national assembly rejected the latest revenue parts of the French budget. An unaltered budget proposal now goes to the Senate. Anyone who pays attention to French fiscal matters will not be surprised—the constitution of the current (fifth) Republic, and the lack of a government majority allows for quite a lot of complex procedure before something is agreed. Something like a French government shutdown is inconceivable.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 23 November 2025.

The September US employment report was finally released. This data’s quality has deteriorated dramatically—not because of the shutdown, but because survey response rates have been weak for some time, and the seasonal adjustment process in September has been a distortion in recent years. Payrolls rose, but so did the unemployment rate.

As 2025 nears an end, Jason Draho outlines the market and macro expectations of the UBS Chief Investment Office for 2026. We also consider whether AI can power the market even higher? How will governments manage rising debt? And how will politics shape markets in 2026? Plus, a review of key portfolio messages and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares his thoughts on what’s driving recent market momentum and the contributing factors to selling pressure. With year-end approaching, we also dive into CIO’s investment expectations for 2026. Plus, some boots-on-the-ground insights from Doha, Qatar into the profound transformation of the Gulf economies.

The Federal Reserve minutes offered some excitement, and it is not often that an economist gets to write those words. “Many” members of the Fed were opposed to the idea of a December rate cut. The Fed will not have a great deal of new information before it meets next month (thanks to the government shutdown), leading markets to reduce expectations for another rate cut this year.

Market volatility does not necessarily reflect shifts in the economic outlook. While some companies have suggested moderating consumer demand in the US, this may be just reflecting shifts in consumption patterns around the timing of trade tariffs, and should not be extrapolated into broader macroeconomic trends. The Federal Reserve minutes may offer more insight into the economy (at least as perceived by policy-makers).

With the U.S. government now reopen, investors are anxious to receive economic data that was halted during the shutdown period. So, what will investors receive and when? Jason drops by the studio to explain what to expect, and what it all could mean for a December Fed rate cut. Plus, thoughts on recent market price action. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The latest rhetoric from Federal Reserve members is not changing policy uncertainty. Fed Governor Waller highlighted US labor market brittleness—their rather dour outlook supporting a December rate cut. Simultaneously, the cost of living (or, more broadly, affordability) is in political focus, and Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson acknowledged that by suggesting the pace of policy easing could slow.

Rohit Chopra is a Portfolio Manager and Analyst on the Emerging Markets Equity and Emerging Markets Core Equity team at Lazard Asset Management. We cover a range of topics as it relates to the emerging markets, including how the asset class has evolved over the past year, and how to navigate investing in the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie and Letty join to share reflections on recent asset class performance, including a look at the key factors behind outperformance of higher-quality bonds in high yield throughout 2025. Plus, a look at what CIO currently recommends for fixed income investors in the way of portfolio positioning. Featuring are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Letty Zemaitis, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Swiss-US trade deal marks another potential reduction in tariffs paid by US importers, following selective tariff cuts on imported foodstuffs. The Swiss tariffs were not in place long, and US importers may have anticipated this reduction; it is therefore questionable how much of the tariff was passed to US consumers. Other tariff reductions have not necessarily reduced consumer prices—less relevant in the Swiss case, but which matters to inflation perceptions in the case of food tariffs.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 16 November 2025.

There are more reports of the US administration scrambling to cut tariffs using framework trade deals with Latin American economies. Heightened political concerns about US consumers’ inflation perceptions seem to be leading a drive to reduce the tariffs US importers pay on food products. Bilateral negotiations with Latin American countries will be limited in their scope because of Mercosur trade pact rules.

Nick Galakatos, Senior Managing Director, & Global Head of Life Sciences at Blackstone joins Daniel Cassidy at the UBS podcast studio in New York for a comprehensive discussion on trends and developments within Life Sciences, including a look at funding innovations, the regulatory landscape, and the investment case for Life Sciences.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, in recognition of the 30th UN Climate Summit, Burkhard reflects on “where we are” and “where we’re heading” with respect to global climate and clean energy commitments. Plus, a look at climate-related investments where investors can make a positive difference.

US October consumer price inflation should have been published today. It is unlikely the number will ever be calculated, because there was no one to collect the price data. This highlights a problem —even if the US government is functioning, there are fewer employees collecting prices, which means more of the inflation number is ”interpolated” (or “guessed”).

US President Trump has suggested that most US households could receive a USD2,000 cheque from the government. Such a move would require legislation. The bond market seems sceptical about Congressional action and is not currently pricing the probable deficit consequences. Bonds are instead focusing on dubious quality labor market signals, as a guide to Federal Reserve rate cuts.

As the U.S. government nears reopening, Jason outlines the terms of the deal, though more importantly, explains when investors can expect to get new economic data. We also discuss the health of the U.S. labor market and what private sector data has suggested in recent weeks. Plus, thoughts on recent market price action, and a review of CIO’s current portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media reports suggest US importers may face a lower tariff on products from Switzerland (the suggestion is that the August 39% tariff becomes 15%). Swiss imports are a rather modest contribution to the basket of goods that form US consumer price inflation. However, price reactions to a tariff cut might be an important signal. Other tariff cuts have not led to proportionate reductions in consumer prices. If this trend continues, it might create inflation stickiness if the US Supreme Court rules other tariffs to be illegal.

The 250 years of US innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of US economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of America’s railroad by referencing the inaugural publication of the series: From sea to shining sea: The transcontinental railroad. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Nathaniel Gabriel, US Industrials and Materials Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - Commentary about AI demand in earnings reports, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown. Recorded on 9 November 2025.

Investors have been caught between the fear of missing the AI revolution and growing worries about an equity market bubble. With US valuations at the highest level since the dotcom surge 25 years ago, how concerned should investors be? Is now a good time to diversify beyond the US or retreat to cash? To explain how to navigate these complex markets, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by CIO’s global head of investment communications, Kiran Ganesh.

Yesterday, the Bank of England did what it does best and disagreed with itself over policy. The finely balanced vote opens the way for a rate cut in December, when policy-makers will have the benefit of actually knowing what the government’s fiscal policy is to be.

Jason is joined in studio by Dr. David Kelly for an engaging conversation about the potential path forward for monetary policy, the state of the U.S. economy, equity market valuations, and asset allocation considerations. Featured are Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team at JPMorgan Asset Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspectives from Cape Town, South Africa, including thoughts on the factors that are driving economic momentum across the country, and more broadly across the emerging markets. Plus, some can’t miss cycling and travel tips from the picturesque Chapman’s Peak!

The US Supreme Court hearing on the legality of the majority of the US administration’s tariffs produced a positive reaction from tariff-related equities. The questioning from some justices, including the chief justice, seemingly increased investor expectations that the tariffs would be declared illegal. That should entail a rebate to US companies, which would offer a fiscal boost to the US economy.

Join Justin Waring, Head of UBS Wealth Way Strategy and Solutions, as he outlines year-end planning priorities and what’s on the horizon for retirement and tax strategies in 2026. Whether you are decades away from retirement, getting ready to transition to retirement, or already enjoying your retirement years, the end of the year is an ideal time to review your plan for both risks and new opportunities. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The economic calendar includes several central bank announcements, as well as the release of the Bank of Japan’s minutes. With limited investor focus on other central bank remarks, the Bank of Japan minutes may attract particular attention.

Kurt drops by the studio to update on a variety of timely topics, including the implications of potential Election Day outcomes, the prospects for an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, along with takeaways from President Trump’s recent trip to Asia. We also preview the Supreme Court’s hearing on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

If the US had a functioning federal government, we would be getting September trade data today. In theory, one could calculate US trade numbers by using bilateral trade data from other economies. Unfortunately, the rest of the world has been seeking to minimize trade tariffs by careful rerouting of exports, which makes it very difficult to identify what the US is buying using the data of those that are selling.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 15.10.25

Paul drops by the studio for an assessment of the market and macroeconomic environment as we make our way through 4Q25. We focus in on the upward momentum in U.S. equity market and equity valuations, along with potential implications of D.C. policy developments to small business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The October US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll is due. Falling survey repose rates and rising political polarisation have conspired to reduce the reliability of survey-based evidence. The risk is that in the absence of proper US economic data, investors turn in desperation to surveys and give them more credibility than they deserve.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - in the absence of the October employment report (a key macro signal) because of the ongoing government shutdown, any indicators as to the health of the U.S. labor market. Recorded on 2 November 2025.

Paula re-joins Jason in studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, and Fed rate cuts. We also discuss the factors driving equity market momentum, valuations, and portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, Global Client Solutions, Global Macro and Asset Allocation at KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We should be getting US personal income and spending data today, but because the US lacks a properly functioning government we are getting no such thing. This matters because the resilient middle-income consumer has kept the US from recession this year. Credit card data hints that this is still the case, but if fear of unemployment were to rise, downside risks would quickly emerge. The longer the government is shutdown, the greater the role of rumor in the economy—and as bad news sells better, there is a risk that unwarranted fear gains ground in the absence of actual facts.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, the implications of a lower rate environment to fixed income, positioning views & more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, & Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve spoke with an almost British accent yesterday, cutting rates a quarter point with a Bank of England-like three-way vote split. Fed Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was not inevitable. While a majority clearly favored insuring against the risks of a brittle US labor market today, there are fears about future inflation pressures and the lack of credible US economic data.

Leslie and John stop by on Fed Day for an update on fixed income markets, positioning views, and an outlook for monetary policy. We also examine the current state of funding markets and how they relate to quantitate tightening (QT). Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, & John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates a quarter point. The absence of credible short-term data since the last Fed meeting means policymakers cannot follow Fed Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra and must instead focus on economic trends. Market interest will be focused on the spectrum of views, the tone of the press conference, and (inevitably) speculation about Powell’s successor.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the current upward equity market momentum and answers the age-old question: “Are we in a bubble?”. Burkhard also compares the current environment to the TMT-bubble of the late 90s, and offers guidance on how to position in the current environment.

We examine the current situation in Venezuela, including a look at the opportunities and challenges facing Venezuela’s economy. Plus, thoughts as to how Venezuela’s recovery could affect the region and international investors, along with an outlook for the country’s financial assets. Featured are Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, & Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK’s Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.