UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The global data calendar is unusually empty today, allowing investors a chance to speculate idly without any substantial information. This is particularly dangerous in the social media world of hashtag economics—fake news can spread faster and farther than the truth.

Jason drops by to reflect on the recent July inflation prints and what the data suggests about the inflationary environment in the US. We also address concerns about potential political interference in producing economic data, preview Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, and review CIO’s investment recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market reactions to Friday’s events in Alaska are likely to be muted. The Russia-Ukraine war is not producing many market significant outcomes. While US President Trump seems to be following Russian President Putin’s lead at the moment, the changeable nature of administration policy means investors are not likely to take any direction as certain.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – progress on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, key retail earnings, and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

While official US July producer price inflation numbers were higher than expected, the signs of the progression of trade taxes were as expected. Supply chains have become longer and more complex—trade taxes progress down supply chains over months, not days. Rising producer prices without rising consumer prices does not automatically mean profits are being squeezed—it means goods in stores represent pre-tariff production, but goods at factory gates are increasingly using tariffed inputs.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares thoughts on how key forces such as the labor market, inflation, and political pressure are shaping the Fed’s decision making on monetary policy, along with how this year’s dollar-decline compares to previous declines. Plus, guidance when it comes to navigating turbulent markets.

UK second-quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The numbers will of course be subject to revision (and lots of revision), but for the time being this rather confounds the insistent negative narrative. Growth seems to have been focused toward the end of the quarter.

Kurt rejoins in-studio for the latest POTUS 47 update where we discuss the developments surrounding US trade policy, concerns over Fed autonomy, and geopolitical points of interest - how these factors have been impacting the markets and shaping the investment outlook. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s July US consumer price inflation data showed trade taxes seeping into prices. US appliance prices are higher than in March—in most other major economies, they are lower. Tire prices leapt in July. Auto prices are not reflecting tariffs, but that was not likely—cars arriving as late as June would have been tariff exempt, and from dockside to car lot takes up to six months. Pre-tax auto inventory is currently being sold.

In this month’s Fixed Income Strategist, we review foundational elements of the fixed income market and outline rationale for maintaining a diversified approach within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, & Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Carli Torres

US July consumer price inflation is due. The details will show more of the April trade taxes seeping into consumer prices—although a 10% tariff equates to around a 4% consumer price increase, and service prices should be largely unaffected. This data is less reliable than that released just six months ago—not because of political bias, but because funding cuts mean fewer price points are measured.

As markets continue to shrug off risk factors, Jason shares thoughts on the current environment and how to position within. We discuss the week’s notable macro data releases, spanning inflation readings to retail sales, the potential policy impacts of recent Fed personnel changes, along with share an outlook for gold. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US administration has promised to clarify “misinformation” about trade taxes on gold following an official ruling from customs officials suggesting US buyers of certain gold bars have been taxed since 9 April. That could potentially include some of the gold now covering the walls of the White House’s oval office. Investors suppose a clarification means a repudiation of the ruling. This rather chaotic process might make investors suppose the details of trade taxes had not been properly thought through, but that would be unthinkable for so important a policy position.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – key macro releases, including CPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, along with the remains of the Q2 corporate earnings season.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities at the midpoint of 2025. We also cover an outlook for the US economy, the ongoing impact of artificial intelligence to US equities, along with a look at equity sector themes. Host: Daniel Cassidy. Recorded on 25.07.24

The Financial Times reports that the US has declared imports of one kilogram and 100 ounce bars of gold are subject to trade taxes. If true, US citizens who tried to hedge the inflation impact of US President Trump’s trade taxes by buying gold bars must pay those same taxes on their hedge. The ruling suggests gold imported between 9 April and 7 August was subject to tariff, underscoring how tariffs work. Gold importers are liable, and they (not exporters) will be pursued in the courts if they do not pay the tax. Holders of gold futures, etc. would not be subject to trade taxes.

A look at the performance landscape and outlook for preferred securities through 2H25, including a review of sector risks and opportunities. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US manufacturers live in confusing times. Alongside the widespread increases in taxes on imports that took effect this morning, US President Trump suggested a 100% tax on imports of microchips. However, in a maneuver that was less a retreat and more a pirouette, these taxes will not apply to imports from some specific companies, including some of the largest exporters to the US. That blunts the cost of the tax and tilts this toward spin rather than substance, but increases the paperwork associated with doing business in the US.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares thoughts on a range of timely topics, including ongoing tariff negotiations, July US payroll data, along with shakeups at the US Bureau of Labour Statistics and Fed Board of Governors. Plus, a look at the challenges facing health care companies, and highlights from a cycling journey through Denmark.

Paul drops by the studio to outline the key themes that business owners should be mindful of throughout 2H25. We also cover the evolving macroeconomic environment, and discuss what a lower rate environment could mean for business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is apparently a shortlist of four for the position of next governor of the Federal Reserve, and prospective nominee to be chair of the board of governors. US Treasury Secretary Bessent is not on the short-list. The question is whether anyone nominated can possibly shake off the perception of being a political puppet.

What differentiates an emerging market from a developed one? Alejo drops by the studio to explain, as the lines separating developed and emerging markets are blurring. Plus, a look at related investment implications for emerging market investors. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US June trade balance is due—measuring both goods and services. For some bilateral relationships (e.g. trade with the EU), the US goods deficit is almost entirely offset by a services surplus. Goods export patterns have been distorted by the anticipation of trade taxes, and to some extent by boycotts of US goods. It is unlikely that there will be any evidence of tariffs transforming the US into an export powerhouse.

The US dollar has suffered its sharpest first-half decline in over 50 years, raising questions about its safe-haven status and long-term dominance. We explore the drivers behind the dollar’s slide, the implications for international portfolios, and why now is the time for investors to review and diversify their currency exposures. Join Dominic Schnider, Head CIO Global FX & Commodity, and Constantin Bolz, CIO FX Strategist, for a discussion with co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

Coming off what was an eventful week for investors (in unexpected ways), and combined with a notable selloff in US equities, Jason drops by to weigh in as to where markets may be headed from here (and whether persistent market volatility should be expected). We recap last week’s, FOMC meeting, July Jobs report (and revisions), Q2 earnings, and a key Fed resignation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last Friday’s US employment report revisions were in line with a fragile labor market narrative. The story is still “not hiring, not firing.” Falling manufacturing employment is consistent with policy uncertainty. The most troubling development on Friday was not the data, but US President Trump firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - US initial jobless claims data, continued Q2 earnings results, and further potential trade developments.

We close out a busy macro week by examining the current health of the US labor market, and what the July Jobs Report might mean for the course of monetary policy. We also recap this week’s FOMC meeting and press conference, unpack the Q2 US GDP print, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The global economy is reverberating with the dull thud of the yoke of taxation dropping onto the shoulders of US consumers. These taxes do not show up in consumer baskets with full force until January next year—the question is whether the courts will overturn these taxes before then. If they do (forcing the government to return tax revenues to the US supply chain), it is possible US consumers will never fully appreciate the costs.

Patricia Zobel serves as Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, and previously served as an executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed). Patricia rejoins the podcast to share perspective on a range of topics, spanning an outlook for the US economy, US trade policy, Fed independence, and the direction of monetary policy. We also spend time on allocation preferences. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve offered no surprises on rates. Fed Chair Powell tried to present the two dissenting views as being rationally based, but investors are bound to suspect that the rationale amounted to little more than an excited jumping up and down and shouting “pick me, pick me” in the general direction of the White House. The press conference gave a slightly hawkish tone in anticipating the trade tax inflation yet to come.

The Federal Reserve meets to decide interest rates—over a hundred economists expect no change. The question is whether one can credibly disagree, without appearing as a political puppet. A case can be made for rate cuts (if one views US President Trump’s trade taxes as a heavier burden on US consumers). However, even if a Fed member sincerely believes that scenario, their dissent would almost inevitably be viewed as Trump twitching the political puppet strings in the background.

The US June trade balance is due—a number once overlooked but which politics has made it matter. Are international investors rushing to buy more US-made products? They are not (Canadians seem to be rushing in the other direction). Are US consumers less inclined to buy foreign goods? Probably not—even as late as June, some imports will not yet be hit with trade taxes. The euro has weakened, allegedly in response to concerns about the economic implications of the trade “deal”; but we still lack “deal” details, and the reaction of US companies will also matter to the EU economic outlook.

Jason drops by the studio to preview a busy week that includes an abundance of Q2 earnings results, the July FOMC meeting, and the July employment report. We also reflect on recent trade news involving the EU and Japan, and what it all means for tariffs going forward. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest positioning recommendations, and thoughts on how a big structural risk shift in the private sector is being masked by a relative market calm. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The EU and the US agreed that US consumers should pay more tax—levied at 15% for imports from the EU. EU President von der Leyen made vague pledges to buy stuff from and invest in the US, without the necessary authority to make those pledges reality. Pharmaceuticals and steel seem to be excluded from this deal. The result is better for the US economy than the worst-case scenario, but worse for the US economy than the situation in January this year—but it is bad news markets have probably anticipated.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – Mega-tech Q2 earnings results continue, the FOMC meeting and rate decision, further potential trade developments ahead of the Aug 01 deadline, and the July employment report.

Arif Joshi serves as a Portfolio Manager and Analyst on Lazard Asset Management's Emerging Markets Debt team. Our conversation focuses on recent and ongoing developments surrounding US trade policy, along with implications to the economy, and international markets. We also spend some time on pressing geopolitical topics such as the condition of the US-China relationship, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. Host: Daniel Cassidy

From time to time, these comments might have given the impression of dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chair Powell. While one can (very) credibly disagree with Powell’s policies, those policies are independent. Yesterday, Powell defended that independence, publicly correcting US President Trump’s errors about the Fed’s building projects. Powell suggested that Trump’s trade tax policy was behind some cost overruns (a subtle reminder that US consumers pay tariffs, not foreign exporters).

Shane drops by to share the latest developments on trade, spanning Japan to the European Union. We also touch on efforts by both sides of the isle to redraw Congressional districts in states such as Texas, California, and New York. Plus, a look at why the August recess for Congress has commenced early, and what to watch out for when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground insights from Germany, as he explains the drivers behind Germany’s market gains and economic momentum, including takeaways from conversations with German businesses and investors. We also touch on considerations for international investors in today’s market and macro environment.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested US rates should be cut now, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell should resign or be fired. Do investors want to live in a world where Fed independence is compromised and Lutnick influences policy? To judge from the dollar’s reaction, the answer is “no”.

The proposed US-Japan trade deal means US buyers of Japanese goods (including autos) face a 15% tax. Steel is still taxed at 50%. Of course, deals are not the same as implementation, as the UK steel industry can testify. There are media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will resign in August. Investors are unlikely to expect significant policy change given the lack of a majority in either house of the Diet.

Paul rejoins in-studio to spotlight a special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book publication series which covers tax and economic considerations that stem from the One Big Beautiful Bill, for both business owners and individuals. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested a “wholesale review” of the Federal Reserve was necessary (while supporting central bank independence). In the context of recent challenges, these remarks may trouble investors. Central bank independence was critical to the post-1970s moderation of inflation, and helped prevent the post-pandemic inflation from being worse than it was.

Despite relatively low trading volumes and narrow trading ranges as of late, there is still plenty factors top of mind for investors that could stir up market volatility in the weeks ahead. This morning, we check-in on the Q2 earnings season, reflect on Fed independence concerns, and assess macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy. Plus, a review of CIO’s market outlook and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

South Korean export data for the first part of July showed growth, adjusted for differences in working days. Semiconductor sales were strong, and exports to Europe continued to grow. The US habit of taxing its consumers if they buy foreign steel meant exports in that sector were weaker. The data is a reminder that while the US is an important economy, there are other important economies that are not burdening their consumers with additional taxes.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – How AI will feature in upcoming tech earnings, macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy, and how to think about Fed independence concerns.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange thoughts on Fed independence (and the course for monetary policy), the direction of US trade policy (and economic implications), along with 2H25 market outlooks and portfolio positioning considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After this week’s events, the question is whether anyone can advocate for US rate cuts without being seen as a political puppet? Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller offered some (debatable, but valid) economic points in favor of US rate cuts, but the position is politically tainted. The problem for the Fed and markets is that the US administration’s policy continues to create considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook.