UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump suggested that Iran had 10 or 15 days to do a deal, or face (unspecified) negative consequences. The US military presence in the Gulf means investors have given more weight to these remarks. Oil prices have moved higher—not dramatically, but enough that it might be visible to the US consumer in a few weeks. That has a bearing on inflation perception and the US affordability crisis.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on the credit market, an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes showcased a full range of opinion, with advocates of rate cuts, a long pause, and the possibility of rate increases. Were it not for the inability of the minutes to spell the word “labour” correctly, this level of disagreement would give the impression of a Bank of England rather than a Fed meeting. There was a consensus around stabilizing US labor markets. Overall, the minutes still allow for rate cuts, but an immediate easing is unlikely.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether we are entering into a new Emerging Markets super-cycle, and if a rise of Emerging Markets equates to a decline of US-exceptionalism.

The Financial Times reports ECB President Lagarde will leave office before their term ends—allowing a successor to be appointed before next year’s French presidential elections. This makes little difference to near-term policy—the ECB has adopted a stance of masterful inactivity. It might make a difference longer term. Lagarde’s successor could even be an economist (which would obviously be an excellent choice)—and the cumbersome nature of the policy council places extra emphasis on the leadership.

It’s been an active few weeks in financial markets as investors grapple with the potential for AI to disrupt business models across industries, along with whether the U.S. economy really is “running hot”. We discuss this all, and review CIO’s current allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK January labor market data was not especially surprising. Bonus payments were slightly weaker than expected, one of the unemployment measures (the ILO) was a fraction higher, but payrolls were stronger than expected. The ongoing rise in real incomes should offer some support to consumer spending (it is shifting savings rates, rather than incomes, that have been the restraint on spending).

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 16 February 2026.

US January consumer price inflation data had several moderating influences. Used car prices (the curse of every economist) fell sharply. The fictitious owners’ equivalent rent (the largest component in the calculation) helped pull the headline numbers lower. However, grocery prices are still rising, as are electricity prices. They may shape perceptions of affordability.

US January consumer price data is due. The focus should be on the details more than the headline. The largest part of the consumer price calculation is a fictitious housing price that people don’t pay. Such prices have no influence over perceptions of the affordability crisis.

In this episode, we discuss the municipal bond market and its, so far, strong start to the year. Plus, a look at California munis and the impact from the Billionaire tax. We'll assess the market right now and how investors should be positioned. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The January US employment report signaled sufficient strength to cool market expectations of an urgent US rate reduction. There is no evidence of political interference in the data. However, the data quality is questionable—survey response rates remain low, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost staff. There was a surprise sharp increase in foreign-born US worker employment and a drop in US-born US worker employment in the past two months. The 2025 data showed a broad-based decline in manufacturing employment, even in sectors protected by tariffs.

We get the delayed January US employment report and benchmark revisions for the past two years. For markets what is important is that economies respond to reality, not reported data. Whatever the employment reality was in 2025, it was consistent with a low fear of unemployment and US consumers willing to cut savings to pay for tariffs. Revising reported data to bring it closer to reality does not change that story.

Gold prices have swung with rare intensity in recent days, surging to a record all-time high only to drop as much as 12% in a single session. Is the gold trade at a crossroads, or can the underlying bull market narrative resume? For insights on flows, drivers and how investors can position, join this special CIO Live with Michael Bolliger, CIO Switzerland, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Research and Content, and host Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 21.01.26

US President Trump’s social media accounts published an attack on Canada, threatening to block the opening of a US-Canada bridge (named after a Canadian hockey player), and suggesting a Canada-China trade deal would end the playing of ice hockey in Canada. This seems an unlikely outcome in the post-“Heated Rivalry” environment. Despite the tone of the statements, markets are likely to discount this rhetoric (tariffs on US importers of goods from Iranian trading partners, 100% tariffs on US importers of Canadian goods, and 50% tariffs on US importers of Canadian aircraft have yet to materialize).

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 8 February 2026.

Japan's governing LDP looks to have won a two-thirds majority in the lower house, which means the upper house cannot stop legislation. The next focus is the budget and how a proposed consumption tax cut on food will be financed. Equities have reacted positively, bonds are likely to be somewhat cautious.

The volatility of some financial markets produces stirring financial media headlines. However, most major equity markets (other than the US) are up on the year. Precious metal volatility (up and down) has been too abrupt to generate major wealth effects. Crypto is not an asset, and is held by a tiny portion of society. It is unlikely that consumer behavior will change because of recent market moves.

The technology sector of the equity market might be experiencing a dilemma. If artificial intelligence is disruptive, will it disrupt technology companies? If it is not disruptive, are technology companies overvalued? The drop in technology share prices suggests that there has not been a bubble—the adjustment is relatively focused, and there has been little borrowing behind this. This mutes the economic consequences of recent moves.

US President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown. The failure of the US government to function properly is so commonplace that markets barely registered it. Democrats have signaled a united opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair, until the administration’s legal pursuit of the Fed is ended. This was expected, but raises the prospect of Chair Powell staying on as FOMC chair (not Board of Governors chair) beyond May.

Sustainable investing is entering a new era, one where outcomes, resilience, and real-world impact sit at the center of portfolio construction. From equities to fixed income to alternatives, 2026 brings both structural challenges and compelling opportunities. Tiffany Agard and Andrew Lee, from the CIO Sustainable & Impact Investing team, share how investors can navigate these themes, where fundamentals are strengthening, and what it means to build portfolios equipped for the world we’re heading into.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

US President Trump’s social media post suggests a deal has been done with India to reduce the tariffs paid by US importers (from 35% to 18%, with special tariffs relating to Russian oil purchases set to zero). The move will have little effect on the US affordability crisis—Indian imports are less than 3% of the US total. While tariff increases are readily passed to consumers, tariff reductions (strangely) are less likely to be passed through.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 2 February 2026.

The sharp decline in gold and silver prices has relatively little economic significance. While attempts will be made to spin this as a reaction to fundamental economics, it seems more likely that the “fear of missing out” trade became exhausted. The run-up in prices was over too short a period to have created major wealth effects, so correcting to a price more in line with economic fundamentals would be regarded as an economic positive (avoiding a misallocation of resources).

There is widespread speculation that US President Trump will nominate former Fed Governor Warsh as next Fed chair. They need Senate confirmation, which may take time. Warsh’s time as governor was not, perhaps, notable—what policy bias there was tended to the hawkish. Now Warsh seems to believe AI will be disinflationary (technology is often more about relative price changes than inflation or disinflation).

In the midst of a busy travel week, spanning London, Lisbon, Berlin, Munich and Geneva, Burkhard stops by to share his boots-on-the-ground observations on factors driving economic and market activity. Plus, a look at how these observations rhyme with technology and U.S. exceptionalism (as drivers of the “Roaring Twenties” narrative).

Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, rejoins the podcast for a performance update and outlook for the preferred securities sector. We also spend time reviewing positioning considerations within the asset class and provide a “preferred securities investing 101”. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve obviously left rates unchanged, but the tenor of the meeting seems to have been a little more hawkish. Resilient economic growth has reduced the urgency for a rate cut. A cut is still likely at some point this year, not to act as a stimulus but to ensure against downside risk (were labor market fears to start to weigh on the consumer).

Our first episode of the year features Marc Lipschultz, Co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, and Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas. Marc and Jason exchange thoughts on how AI infrastructure and data center investments are being financed, along with how investors should think about AI-bubble risk. Plus, thoughts on the macroeconomic environment, overall investment risks, and where opportunities exist across private markets and private credit. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A unanimous 92 out of 92 surveyed economists expect no change in US interest rates today. That many economists could never be wrong. An insurance rate cut may be necessary, to keep fear of unemployment low and allow US consumers to continue cutting savings rates to pay for tariffs. An insurance cut is not urgent, however.

The US dollar has remained weaker, but has not declined significantly further. The dollar is not likely to lose reserve status overnight. However, the decline of the US internationally and international investors’ questions over key issues like rule of law mean it is losing market share. Moreover, as trade stagnates (and may retreat), reserve status becomes less important. International investors are not likely to flounce out of dollar assets in a dramatic exit, but may be less interested in accumulating additional dollar holdings.

The 250 years of U.S. innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of U.S. economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of the assembly line in the U.S. by referencing the next publication of the series: Made in USA - The assembly line. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Sunny Mehra, U.S. Consumer Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With Davos in the rear-view, the next FOMC meeting just days away, and Q4 earnings underway, Jason drops by to discuss what’s on investors’ minds and what markets are pricing in. Plus, a look at the latest investment outlook and allocation recommendations from CIO, per the February UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 25 January 2026.

The UBS Women and health reports examines the gender health gap - what it is, and how it affects women’s lives and financial wellbeing. We discuss these topics and highlight the rapid growth over the last few years in awareness around women’s health and in the startup scene of companies try¬ing to provide solutions. Featured is Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland has returned, and Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspective on a range of developments spanning Greenland to the idea of a virtual “28th state” in the European Union. Plus, thoughts on the upcoming snap-election in Japan, and the Bank of Japan’s potential path forward on rates.

Our conversation spotlights an important retirement savings change taking effect in 2026 as part of the SECURE 2.0 Act. For certain high wage earners, catch-up contributions will be required to be made on a Roth basis, which means they’ll be taxed at the time of contribution rather than at withdrawal. Tune in to learn about what’s changing, why this matters, and what to do about it. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Head UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Policy and geopolitics continue to dominate the headlines early in 2026, with the latest development being President Trump’s efforts to gain control of Greenland. Other policy-related stories that also matter for the markets just as much, include questions about Fed leadership, expected policy announcements from President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and a snap election in Japan. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, covers these developments and implications to CIO’s investment outlook. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors and the US administration are likely to keep focus on the US Treasury bond market, which weakened modestly in the wake of US President Trump’s latest tariff threats. The implications of additional tariffs are more US inflation pressures and a further erosion of the USD’s status as a reserve currency. So far, bond investors do not seem to be taking the threats too seriously. Trump also threatened to tax US drinkers of champagne and Bordeaux, if French President Macron refuses to join the Board of Peace for Gaza. Markets seem inclined to dismiss this too.