UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 22 March 2026.

Investment by armchair generals seems to be the fashion. Markets are reacting to political comments about the length of the Gulf war. With uncertainty about US objectives, it is hard to for investors to assess how much more fighting is required to achieve the “end goal”. The economic war may also continue after the US withdraws. US gasoline prices keep rising—average prices may reach USD 4/gallon this week.

Attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure impacted financial markets. Investors have partially looked through short-term increases in energy prices, assuming consumers and businesses will find the means to adapt. Damaging infrastructure raises the risk of prices staying higher for longer, extending the damage beyond the ability of economies to adapt. US President Trump’s urgent social media posting on the attacks suggests some awareness of domestic economic and political costs, perhaps reinforcing investors’ probability of an early US withdrawal.

The Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave policy unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference excites attention for three reasons. 1. Powell may stay as Fed Chair beyond May, so is a less lame “lame duck” leader. 2. Markets want to know the Fed’s reaction to oil prices and the war. US retail gasoline prices are almost exactly a dollar (35.5%) above 2026 lows, having risen every day for four weeks. The Fed’s concern is second-round effects.

Muni tax-equivalent yields are attractive and credit is resilient but elevated geopolitical uncertainties and weaker technicals in March call for balancing risk and return. We discuss with Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has seemingly been hit by Iranian attacks—the UAE recently stopped sharing missile and drone intercept data. This pushed oil prices higher. British Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai and other regional destinations until June. US President Trump reiterated pleas for help, saying countries were eager to assist (declining to name them). Markets are likely to see-saw between concerns over damage to oil infrastructure, and hopes that the US may look for an exit.

We are now in the third week of the US-Iran conflict and investors remain focused on how long it could last and the potential economic consequences. There are other developments relevant for the investment outlook, including economic data and how the Fed incorporates the oil price shock into its decision-making at the FOMC meeting this week. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses this all, and how position portfolios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economic theory often assumes perfect information. This is obviously only true in economic fantasies. Social media and fake news risk distorting real-world market prices. The Gulf war is contributing to this, with governments seeking to influence social media influencers and television reports, or not giving out information at all. This encourages fake news and risks discrediting accurate information, undermining market pricing

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 15 March 2026.

The US government’s views on the Gulf war and its consequences seem to be contradictory. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz was not being mined—later clarified by officials to mean that it probably was. US President Trump asserted US strength as an oil producer, then called for emergency intermeeting rate cuts (a crisis measure to prevent imminent recession). Iranian policy is consistent—the strait will remain closed.

The IEA announced it would orchestrate a record release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Another three ships were attacked in the Gulf. Oil prices rose over USD100/barrel. In the absence of a coherent US strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver.

A roundtable discussion on growing global demand and application trends in renewable energy and infrastructure, along with a look at technological innovations and investment considerations associated with these themes. Tiffany Agard, from the UBS CIO Investment Management Sustainable & Impact Investing team, is joined by Jay Dobson, UBS CIO Energy & Utilities Equity Strategist, and Chris Leslie, Senior Managing Director, Green Investments, at Macquarie Asset Management.

The US administration’s current communication strategy is not entirely clear, but the consequence is volatility in financial markets. US Defense Secretary Hesgeth’s claims of escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz were denied. US President Trump’s warning against Iran mining the strait seemingly offered little deterrent. If the strait is mined, oil prices may stay higher for longer. IEA proposals to release a record quantity of strategic oil reserves kept oil prices calmer.

Join Ed Tran, Portfolio Manager with the Private Client U.S. Equity Team at UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 18.02.26

US President Trump declared the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much”. The vagueness of the war objectives and Trump’s tendency to reverse more dramatic policy positions meant markets had anticipated signals the US would seek to end the war soon – but investors limited conviction. The statement provoked a market reaction, though the lack of confirmation from other administration officials, and Iran’s response, have limited that reaction.

South Korea announced a price cap for some petroleum products, as crude oil prices rose above USD 100 a barrel. An oil price shock does not have to be a price and growth shock— the pain may be taken in fiscal policy. The G7 is apparently considering an emergency use of strategic oil reserves, but that is a temporary fix.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 8 March 2026.

Nic Janvier serves as Head of Equities for North America at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Nic shares his take on the current landscape for U.S. equities, including performance drivers, sector preferences, and risk considerations. We also share an outlook for U.S. equities, reflect on the Q4 earnings season, and touch on ex-US equities. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 02.24.26.

An assessment of U.S. labor market health following the February employment report, along with a look at the U.S. inflationary environment ahead of next week’s February inflation data. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Geopolitical crises have generally caused only fleeting market setbacks. But could the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran be among a handful of historic exceptions? Disruptions to oil and gas flows out of the Middle East could be especially damaging for Europe, where reliance on imported energy is high. And this is just part of a historic overhaul of US foreign policy under President Trump that has forced Europe to consider a more independent defense policy. To unpack the implications, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by the CIO’s top geopolitical thinkers, Dirk Effenberger and Kurt Reiman. Will the shockwaves fade, or are we entering a period of sustained disruption? And how can investors navigate these troubled waters?

The US labor market remains the critical driver of the US economy. In 2025, US consumers spent more and saved less of their income to afford tariffs. That requires job security. The US labor market is not strong enough to create significant pay pressures—we are very, very far from 1973—but is good enough to give consumers the confidence to spend.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and fluidity, we discuss how investors should position, along with a review of key catalysts and risks. Plus, key takeaways from the ongoing China Two Sessions. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, and Laura Smith, Investment Specialist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join Ted Galgano and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategists from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for an update on California’s credit fundamentals and an outlook for its municipal issuers.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled US importers could expect to pay a 15% tariff. US President Trump had mentioned this, but endorsement by an administration official adds credibility. The effect is not necessarily to raise inflation but—because tariff composition differs from the illegal IEEPA tariffs—could keep inflation rates higher for longer. Tariff reductions are not passed on to consumers the way tariff increases are.

We examine what’s happening across emerging markets, and review the external and domestic drivers that are supporting the asset class. Plus, an assessment of key investment risks to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump said that the US International Development Finance Corporation will offer to insure tankers in the Gulf, and the US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. It is not clear how the former would operate, or how soon the later would happen. Markets seem unenthusiastic about this, with oil prices higher and Asian equities lower. Trump seems politically sensitive to oil prices in the context of the US affordability crisis—gasoline prices disproportionately impact inflation perceptions. Trump’s sensitivity might be important in judging the length of the war.

Brian Levitt serves as Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights at Invesco. Brian shares his take on a wide range of topics that have recently influenced investor sentiment and moved markets, including geopolitical factors, the impacts of artificial intelligence, the course for monetary policy, and more. We also share an outlook for the U.S. economy and discuss asset allocation considerations. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 03.02.26.

Near term, the rise in oil and gas prices are not yet economically threatening (they would need to stay high for longer). Dollar strength may be less about safety, and must partly reflect the need to buy more dollars to pay for oil, gas, or gold.

Following this weekend’s developments in the Middle East (still ongoing), Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Equity Strategist Americas, & Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, outline what has taken place, how the days and weeks ahead may unfold, and how global markets are responding. We also touch on how markets historically respond during periods of global conflict, the implications of this conflict to energy supply-chain and prices, along with portfolio positioning guidance from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Events in the Gulf make dramatic viewing. The humanitarian cost of war is always horrible. The economics of the current situation are less dramatic. The inflation consequences depend on a sustained increase in oil price, not a spike. The world has become less oil dependent to produce economic activity. However, the US affordability crisis may be affected—perception rather than reality matters to affordability, and gasoline prices affect inflation perceptions.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 1 March 2026.

Solita Marcelli, Global Head of Investment Management at UBS GWM, & Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation, and CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet, share their views on the rest of 2026 and beyond, exploring key opportunities and risks across public and private markets. They touch on the impact of artificial intelligence, structural market shifts, the latest developments in private credit, and more.

We discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is impacting credit markets, along with the drivers behind fixed income sector performance throughout February. Plus, a look at fixed income positioning recommendations. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The 250 years of US innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of US economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history and application of the semiconductor and microchip. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Kevin Dennean, US Technology & Communications Services Equity Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Assorted provinces of the Euro empire will be releasing their flash February consumer price inflation data. There is little expectation for any drama in this data. The overall inflation picture in Europe is benign, and there is no real sense of an affordability crisis—for the most part, European policies have not added to inflation, high frequency purchases like food have modest price increases, and electricity prices are even falling (a concept US consumers may struggle to comprehend).

Torsten rejoins Jason to exchange thoughts on the health and direction of the U.S. economy, the road ahead for monetary policy (along with the implications of new Fed leadership), AI disruption, and overall market risk considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management

The Bank of Korea left rates unchanged, as every economist predicted. There was forward guidance (regrettably, the Bank of Korea likes the Federal Reserve’s fabled “dot plot” approach, and adopted a refined version). This signaled no change in policy for six months, with relatively positive views on economic growth.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling aftermath and next steps for U.S. trade policy, ongoing nuclear policy negotiations with Iran, and the focuses of President Trump during the State of the Union address. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s State of the Union address defended the past year, seeking to reset the economic narrative of the past year. As such, it is not especially market relevant—although so much of a focus on the domestic economy (perhaps in response to recent approval rating numbers) might be important in shaping future policy.

Our conversation focuses on considerations when it comes to quantitative equity investing, including a look a common misconceptions, how strategies help achieve better diversification, along with look at how investors benefit from combining quantitative strategies with other investment styles. Featured is Giuliano De Rossi, Head of Quants Equities, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump delivers a State of the Union address to Congress. Normally, these are not market moving, but investors will look for two things: will there be more tariff threats in the written remarks (which carry more weight than ad lib comments)?; how supportive of Trump will Congressional Republicans be? House Speaker Johnson suggested Congress would not vote to continue tariffs.

After spending the past few weeks fixated on AI disruption risk and macroeconomic data, investors were reminded Friday morning that tariffs are still a factor when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. Perhaps lost in that story was the release of Q4 GDP data. We discuss that all and what it means for the investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US trade policy uncertainty increased over the weekend. The Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs was not unexpected. US President Trump imposing a 10% universal tariff, then raising it to 15%, was less predictable. Details seem limited—will some goods be exempt? What about the revised NAFTA deal and imports from Mexico and Canada? What about trade deals involving lower tariffs (albeit not necessarily fully implemented) with countries like the UK? Administration officials are suggesting further tariffs against specific countries.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 22 February 2026.

US President Trump suggested that Iran had 10 or 15 days to do a deal, or face (unspecified) negative consequences. The US military presence in the Gulf means investors have given more weight to these remarks. Oil prices have moved higher—not dramatically, but enough that it might be visible to the US consumer in a few weeks. That has a bearing on inflation perception and the US affordability crisis.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on the credit market, an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes showcased a full range of opinion, with advocates of rate cuts, a long pause, and the possibility of rate increases. Were it not for the inability of the minutes to spell the word “labour” correctly, this level of disagreement would give the impression of a Bank of England rather than a Fed meeting. There was a consensus around stabilizing US labor markets. Overall, the minutes still allow for rate cuts, but an immediate easing is unlikely.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether we are entering into a new Emerging Markets super-cycle, and if a rise of Emerging Markets equates to a decline of US-exceptionalism.

The Financial Times reports ECB President Lagarde will leave office before their term ends—allowing a successor to be appointed before next year’s French presidential elections. This makes little difference to near-term policy—the ECB has adopted a stance of masterful inactivity. It might make a difference longer term. Lagarde’s successor could even be an economist (which would obviously be an excellent choice)—and the cumbersome nature of the policy council places extra emphasis on the leadership.

It’s been an active few weeks in financial markets as investors grapple with the potential for AI to disrupt business models across industries, along with whether the U.S. economy really is “running hot”. We discuss this all, and review CIO’s current allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy