UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US January consumer price inflation data had several moderating influences. Used car prices (the curse of every economist) fell sharply. The fictitious owners’ equivalent rent (the largest component in the calculation) helped pull the headline numbers lower. However, grocery prices are still rising, as are electricity prices. They may shape perceptions of affordability.

US January consumer price data is due. The focus should be on the details more than the headline. The largest part of the consumer price calculation is a fictitious housing price that people don’t pay. Such prices have no influence over perceptions of the affordability crisis.

In this episode, we discuss the municipal bond market and its, so far, strong start to the year. Plus, a look at California munis and the impact from the Billionaire tax. We'll assess the market right now and how investors should be positioned. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The January US employment report signaled sufficient strength to cool market expectations of an urgent US rate reduction. There is no evidence of political interference in the data. However, the data quality is questionable—survey response rates remain low, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost staff. There was a surprise sharp increase in foreign-born US worker employment and a drop in US-born US worker employment in the past two months. The 2025 data showed a broad-based decline in manufacturing employment, even in sectors protected by tariffs.

We get the delayed January US employment report and benchmark revisions for the past two years. For markets what is important is that economies respond to reality, not reported data. Whatever the employment reality was in 2025, it was consistent with a low fear of unemployment and US consumers willing to cut savings to pay for tariffs. Revising reported data to bring it closer to reality does not change that story.

Gold prices have swung with rare intensity in recent days, surging to a record all-time high only to drop as much as 12% in a single session. Is the gold trade at a crossroads, or can the underlying bull market narrative resume? For insights on flows, drivers and how investors can position, join this special CIO Live with Michael Bolliger, CIO Switzerland, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Research and Content, and host Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 21.01.26

US President Trump’s social media accounts published an attack on Canada, threatening to block the opening of a US-Canada bridge (named after a Canadian hockey player), and suggesting a Canada-China trade deal would end the playing of ice hockey in Canada. This seems an unlikely outcome in the post-“Heated Rivalry” environment. Despite the tone of the statements, markets are likely to discount this rhetoric (tariffs on US importers of goods from Iranian trading partners, 100% tariffs on US importers of Canadian goods, and 50% tariffs on US importers of Canadian aircraft have yet to materialize).

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 8 February 2026.

Japan's governing LDP looks to have won a two-thirds majority in the lower house, which means the upper house cannot stop legislation. The next focus is the budget and how a proposed consumption tax cut on food will be financed. Equities have reacted positively, bonds are likely to be somewhat cautious.

The volatility of some financial markets produces stirring financial media headlines. However, most major equity markets (other than the US) are up on the year. Precious metal volatility (up and down) has been too abrupt to generate major wealth effects. Crypto is not an asset, and is held by a tiny portion of society. It is unlikely that consumer behavior will change because of recent market moves.

The technology sector of the equity market might be experiencing a dilemma. If artificial intelligence is disruptive, will it disrupt technology companies? If it is not disruptive, are technology companies overvalued? The drop in technology share prices suggests that there has not been a bubble—the adjustment is relatively focused, and there has been little borrowing behind this. This mutes the economic consequences of recent moves.

US President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown. The failure of the US government to function properly is so commonplace that markets barely registered it. Democrats have signaled a united opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair, until the administration’s legal pursuit of the Fed is ended. This was expected, but raises the prospect of Chair Powell staying on as FOMC chair (not Board of Governors chair) beyond May.

Sustainable investing is entering a new era, one where outcomes, resilience, and real-world impact sit at the center of portfolio construction. From equities to fixed income to alternatives, 2026 brings both structural challenges and compelling opportunities. Tiffany Agard and Andrew Lee, from the CIO Sustainable & Impact Investing team, share how investors can navigate these themes, where fundamentals are strengthening, and what it means to build portfolios equipped for the world we’re heading into.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

US President Trump’s social media post suggests a deal has been done with India to reduce the tariffs paid by US importers (from 35% to 18%, with special tariffs relating to Russian oil purchases set to zero). The move will have little effect on the US affordability crisis—Indian imports are less than 3% of the US total. While tariff increases are readily passed to consumers, tariff reductions (strangely) are less likely to be passed through.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 2 February 2026.

The sharp decline in gold and silver prices has relatively little economic significance. While attempts will be made to spin this as a reaction to fundamental economics, it seems more likely that the “fear of missing out” trade became exhausted. The run-up in prices was over too short a period to have created major wealth effects, so correcting to a price more in line with economic fundamentals would be regarded as an economic positive (avoiding a misallocation of resources).

There is widespread speculation that US President Trump will nominate former Fed Governor Warsh as next Fed chair. They need Senate confirmation, which may take time. Warsh’s time as governor was not, perhaps, notable—what policy bias there was tended to the hawkish. Now Warsh seems to believe AI will be disinflationary (technology is often more about relative price changes than inflation or disinflation).

In the midst of a busy travel week, spanning London, Lisbon, Berlin, Munich and Geneva, Burkhard stops by to share his boots-on-the-ground observations on factors driving economic and market activity. Plus, a look at how these observations rhyme with technology and U.S. exceptionalism (as drivers of the “Roaring Twenties” narrative).

Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, rejoins the podcast for a performance update and outlook for the preferred securities sector. We also spend time reviewing positioning considerations within the asset class and provide a “preferred securities investing 101”. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve obviously left rates unchanged, but the tenor of the meeting seems to have been a little more hawkish. Resilient economic growth has reduced the urgency for a rate cut. A cut is still likely at some point this year, not to act as a stimulus but to ensure against downside risk (were labor market fears to start to weigh on the consumer).

Our first episode of the year features Marc Lipschultz, Co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, and Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas. Marc and Jason exchange thoughts on how AI infrastructure and data center investments are being financed, along with how investors should think about AI-bubble risk. Plus, thoughts on the macroeconomic environment, overall investment risks, and where opportunities exist across private markets and private credit. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A unanimous 92 out of 92 surveyed economists expect no change in US interest rates today. That many economists could never be wrong. An insurance rate cut may be necessary, to keep fear of unemployment low and allow US consumers to continue cutting savings rates to pay for tariffs. An insurance cut is not urgent, however.

The US dollar has remained weaker, but has not declined significantly further. The dollar is not likely to lose reserve status overnight. However, the decline of the US internationally and international investors’ questions over key issues like rule of law mean it is losing market share. Moreover, as trade stagnates (and may retreat), reserve status becomes less important. International investors are not likely to flounce out of dollar assets in a dramatic exit, but may be less interested in accumulating additional dollar holdings.

The 250 years of U.S. innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of U.S. economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of the assembly line in the U.S. by referencing the next publication of the series: Made in USA - The assembly line. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Sunny Mehra, U.S. Consumer Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With Davos in the rear-view, the next FOMC meeting just days away, and Q4 earnings underway, Jason drops by to discuss what’s on investors’ minds and what markets are pricing in. Plus, a look at the latest investment outlook and allocation recommendations from CIO, per the February UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 25 January 2026.

The UBS Women and health reports examines the gender health gap - what it is, and how it affects women’s lives and financial wellbeing. We discuss these topics and highlight the rapid growth over the last few years in awareness around women’s health and in the startup scene of companies try¬ing to provide solutions. Featured is Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland has returned, and Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground perspective on a range of developments spanning Greenland to the idea of a virtual “28th state” in the European Union. Plus, thoughts on the upcoming snap-election in Japan, and the Bank of Japan’s potential path forward on rates.

Our conversation spotlights an important retirement savings change taking effect in 2026 as part of the SECURE 2.0 Act. For certain high wage earners, catch-up contributions will be required to be made on a Roth basis, which means they’ll be taxed at the time of contribution rather than at withdrawal. Tune in to learn about what’s changing, why this matters, and what to do about it. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Head UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Policy and geopolitics continue to dominate the headlines early in 2026, with the latest development being President Trump’s efforts to gain control of Greenland. Other policy-related stories that also matter for the markets just as much, include questions about Fed leadership, expected policy announcements from President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and a snap election in Japan. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, covers these developments and implications to CIO’s investment outlook. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors and the US administration are likely to keep focus on the US Treasury bond market, which weakened modestly in the wake of US President Trump’s latest tariff threats. The implications of additional tariffs are more US inflation pressures and a further erosion of the USD’s status as a reserve currency. So far, bond investors do not seem to be taking the threats too seriously. Trump also threatened to tax US drinkers of champagne and Bordeaux, if French President Macron refuses to join the Board of Peace for Gaza. Markets seem inclined to dismiss this too.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 19 January 2026.

Events around Greenland have four main areas of market focus. Threatened US tariffs appear more serious than those relating to Iran, and may be overturned by the US Supreme Court. However, they imply US consumer prices of goods from the EU and UK will increase 4% to 10% (within about six months). This may reinforce the narrative of the US affordability crisis.

Steve Chiavarone is Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Multi-Asset Group at Federated Hermes. Steve drops by the 1285 podcast studio in New York to share his thoughts on the current macroeconomic environment, and investment views across asset classes. We also touch on expectations for the Q4 corporate earnings season, monetary policy in 2026, and investment risks to be mindful of. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US has long been the birthplace and powerhouse of private equity, accounting for over half of global fundraising and setting the pace for the industry worldwide. But Europe’s private equity market is developing fast, even as global economic headwinds persist. What’s driving the shift of economic activity away from public markets, and where are the most promising opportunities for investors on the continent today? In this episode of “Across the Pond,” special guest Viral Patel, CEO of Blackstone Private Equity Strategies, joins hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters, along with Antoinette Zuidweg, CIO alternatives investment strategist, to discuss the evolution of private equity in Europe, the future of the 60-40 portfolio, and how investors can navigate the changing landscape on both sides of the Atlantic.

Taiwan has made an agreement with the US that will see US importers paying a 15% tariff on Taiwanese products. The 15% number might have additional significance—if the US Supreme Court rules some tariffs illegal, one alternative route is for President Trump to impose a universal 15% tariff. Taiwan pledged to increase investment in the US—some of this will be already planned investment, and markets have learned not to take such announcements as definitive.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning how Washington is addressing housing affordability, geopolitical points of interest such as Iran and Venezuela, the upcoming SCOTUS ruling on the Trump administration’s use of IEEPA for tariff policy, the U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into Fed Chair Powell, and where negotiations stand to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government comes the end of January. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK monthly GDP data was stronger than expected, and revised stronger for the previous month—but the monthly GDP data is economists’ version of white noise (a background hum to help one sleep). Manufacturing and services data was stronger and generally revised up. Trade data showed a lot more volatility in previous metal trade, and stronger exports (away from the US). European trade data should also show normal non-US trade.

Join Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, for an assessment of the current macro and market environment as we have entered 2026. Hosted by Fatou Konteh, Multi-Asset Specialist. Recorded on 26.01.07

Are there reasons for staying bullish on the markets entering 2026? Burkhard has twelve, and we cover a handful of them on the first episode of Viewpoints to begin the year. Burkhard shares is assessment and outlook for markets, and where to find opportunity.

US December consumer price inflation is not likely to push the Federal Reserve into cutting rates immediately. The numbers were not especially threatening, although they hint at upward pressure on the PCE deflator (by repute, the Fed’s favored inflation measure). However, the interpolation rate (using less precise prices) hit a record 40%, raising quality questions. Politically sensitive prices like groceries soared, suggesting affordability will remain an issue.

The CIO municipal research team drops by to share a 2026 muni market outlook, along with their performance expectations across muni sub-sectors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Republican senators’ concerns over the criminal investigation of the Federal Reserve might delay the confirmation of the next Fed Chair. Any nominee from US President Trump is also likely to have to place additional emphasis on their independence to try and prove they are above politics. This might impact future policy decisions.

We start the week by reflecting on market performance in the early days of 2026, along with last week’s flurry of policy announcements and economic data releases. Jason explains what this all means for the investment outlook, and the prospects for further Fed rate cuts. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Powell. In an unusually explicit statement, Powell suggested that this was because of the Fed’s refusal to meet US President Trump’s demands for rate cuts. Bond and currency market reactions signal concerns this may be a challenge to Fed independence.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 11 January 2026.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, & Letty Zemaitis, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.