The Real Investment Show Podcast

(10/12/23) Markets have essentially shunned the war in Israel this week, thus far. Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) did come in a bit hotter-than-expected, and the Fed Minutes released yesterday talked about higher-for-longer interest rates. All this data has become moot in the face of a sharp drop in Crude Oil prices following another big build in supplies. Interest Rates made another sharp move higher, pleasing the Fed in its quest to quell inflation. Interest Rates are testing the 20-DMA, the trend for rates since the higher acceleration. Lower rates will translate into higher Bond prices. With the markets now moving into the seasonally-strong period of the year, the MACD Buy signal has been triggered, suggesting higher stock prices moving forward. We're looking for a stronger rally in the index, despite resistance at 4,380. Other technical indicators also suggest this market wants to go higher. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #InterestRates #CrudeOil #EnergyPrices #PPI #CPI #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) A brief look at the correlation between Israeli conflict and markets' flight to safety in US bonds. Markets could target 4,300; earnings season kicks off today. Potential Spam calls; the thing about Bonds: They're the simplest, yet least-understood investment. What interest rates mean; Sin stocks, ESG, & FAANG stocks: knowing the narrative. Stocks vs Bonds & relative valuations (with charts!) What Howard Marks said; Why interest rates and bond yields go up and down; psychology is a difficult factor in portfolio management. RFK, Jr. & The Perot Effect in the 2024 election; preview of our 2024 Economic Summit (January 27, 2024) A discussion on Mortgage-backed Securities in portfolios (you're basically buying someone's mortgage). How high rates create opportunities: mortgage refinancing. NAR letter to the Fed: "Lower rates so we can sell houses." SEG-1: Israeli Conflict Ingnites Flight to Safety in US Bonds SEG-2: Marital Affairs, Potential Spam, & The Thing About Bonds SEG-3: Sin Stocks, EGS, & Faang Stocks vs Bonds SEG-4: RFK, Jr., & The Perot Effect; Mortgage-baked Securities in Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Impact of the Israeli Conflict" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement & Reality" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaEEQktBjcw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelConflict #FlightToSafety #USTreasuries #Bonds #MortgageBackedSecurities #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) What is happening overseas has not changed the context or tenor of the markets. Wall Street opened lower and then recovered, as markets assessed the global risks from the conflict in Israel. We're looking for a bit of a push higher past resistance this morning, looking for a challenge of the 20-DMA right out of the gate this morning. Look for trapped investors to sell as we near that next resistance level. Note: Earnings season begins anew today with Pepsi's report, followed by airlines and the big banks later in the week. Focus will shift from international intrigue to corporate earnings. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GlobalRisk #CorporateEarnings #Israel #Hammas #Markets #Money #Investing

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Sr. Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #PreRetirement #SocialSecurity #Medicare #PostPandemic #MoneyScript #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/6/23) Elvis Rosso: Yields, Yields, Yields; American's are spending like there's no tomorrow; why we recommend "The Millionaire Next Door;" How to vacation post-pandemic; camping in Buc-cee's. The downside of the lockdown; credit card rate survey; vacation spending vs money scripts: Money is emotional. Money needs shift when children arrive; talking to kids about money. Creating savings buckets for specific needs; noting the frugality of Gen-Z. Camping in Buc-cee's and ditching the boyfriend; Pre-retirement vs reality: more American's are concerned about impact of Inflation on retirement plans; the 4% Rule doesn't work; matching spending to retirement reality. Wrestling in the studio w Brent; playing the Lottery & Candy Corn; preview: Transitioning to Medicare Lunch & Learn; Switching-strategies with Social Security: Don't confuse the SS workers. SEG-1: How to Vacation Post-pandemic SEG-2: How Money Needs Shift When Children Arrive SEG-3: Pre-retirement vs Reality SEG-4: Switching-strategies with Social Security Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP. Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaEEQktBjcw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #PreRetirement #SocialSecurity #Medicare #PostPandemic #MoneyScript #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/5/23) A sharp slide in gasoline demand and credit card spending could be early evidence of the lag-effect from Fed rate increases finally hitting the economy. The dollar trade has reversed. What happens if Friday's employment report is weaker? Markets are flirting with the critical 200-DMA support level. What Mrs. Roberts is really watching on TikTok; '90's Hairdo's and LTCM: The Yield curve is deeply inverted; what matters is what happens when it un-inverts. What really happened in 1998; we will have a crisis. What will matter is how quickly the Fed will react, not who fails. The Fed's 'Higher for Longer' attitude: bailouts today will be exponentially larger because of the exponentially larger debts involved. Why this week's sell-off felt like the unwinding of someone in trouble (was the Fed up to something?) Inflation vs Deflation & the Fed's intolerance of low stock prices. Why interest rates can only go so far: Higher for longer until something breaks. The common misnomer about 2% inflation; the Fed wants a clear and steady trajectory to 2% inflation. Oil pricing vs gasoline pricing: All forms of Energy make up only 7% of CPI; Housing impact on CPI is nearly half, at 40%. SEG-1: Early Evidence of Lag Effect Emerges SEG-2: Baby Goats, '90's Hairdo's, & LCTM SEG-3: The Fed's 'Higher for Longer' Attitude SEG-4: The Common Misnomer about 2% Inflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Something in the Financial System Beginning to Break?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p1TdEe2Q5o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=35s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "From LTCM To 1966. The Perils Of Rising Interest Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/from-ltcm-to-1966.-the-perils-of-rising-interest-rates/ "Government Shutdown Averted. But Is That A Good Thing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-shutdown-averted-but-is-that-a-good-thing/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #HigherForLonger #LagEffect #Deflation #Energy #Gasoline #Oil #Housing #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/5/23) Markets continued to sell off Wednesday, now flirting with the 200-DMA. This is a key support level for markets for myriad reasons: Stocks need to firm up at this level if we're going to get a year-end rally. Historically, and statistically, the odds of such a rally following a weak September are pretty good. However, if we break below that level, the next support will be at 4,000on the S&P. So there certainly is some downside risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection 200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/4/23) There's a new job opening in Congress: Speaker of the House can be filled by any US citizen. We recommend Newt Gingrich or Judge Ted Poe (likely neither want the gig). Was yesterday's market action a 'liquidation event?' JOLTS data within a downward trend; market sell off to test the 200-DMA. This is a normal correction underway; could it go lower? Homeless Pirates now the scourge of Northern California (where's Capt. Phillips?); speeding tickets, water bills, and banking. Pre-holiday Jobless Claims & a stronger JOLTS in a downward trend. Duct Tape & Bondo; Why are bond yields going up? Looking at liquidation event = $50b in one week; is something in the financial system beginning to break? Bond Yields explains; Yield & Coupons are different thing; coupons = interest rate. Girl Math vs Guy Math. There's blood all over the Bond Market; what happens next? SEG-1: Job Opening in Congress & Testing the 200-DMA SEG-2: Homeless Pirates, Stronger JOLTS in a Downward Trend SEG-3: Duct Tape, Bondo, & Bonds SEG-4: Bond Yields Explained Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p1TdEe2Q5o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=35s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Could the Market Correction Go Deeper?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mfL46pjm8A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for Investors?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_qZ0uUXpFc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "From LTCM To 1966. The Perils Of Rising Interest Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/from-ltcm-to-1966.-the-perils-of-rising-interest-rates/ "Government Shutdown Averted. But Is That A Good Thing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-shutdown-averted-but-is-that-a-good-thing/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #LiquidationEvent #ISM #Employment #JobOpenings #JOTLSreport #BondYields #HouseSpeaker #NewtGingrich #JudgeTedPoe #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/4/23) Markets sold off Tuesday, part of the needful action we've been writing about: Markets are doing exactly what markets should do. It's been an orderly decline, despite yesterday's sharp sell-off, testing the 200-DMA (normal in any given year). Remember, markets had a 15% advance from February to July. Could this correction go deeper? It's possible, but there is a cluster of support around 4,000 on the index. We're looking for a rally back up to 4,350 as an opportunity to reduce risk, if you're worried. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mfL46pjm8A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection 200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/3/23) Investors are looking for stronger economic data; positioning is beginning to emerge for End-of-year; 2024 will be different, with companies' debt maturing and refinancing at higher rates. VIX has been on the rise since September, seeming now to peak. What happened to all those "de-dollarization" stories? The currency is over-bought following a dollar rally. What the ISM is telling us; cycles are sentiment-based. Look for a bounce in sentiment surveys after negativity eases. Data is coming indicating an uptick in economic activity, thanks to Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas spending: Short term optimism. There is greater risk of weaker economic activity in 2024. The problem with narratives: Takes our focus off what's really happening. The greater reluctance to quit jobs: Jobs Opening data is confounding; "job creation" boasts are not true. "Now Hiring sign: "Baby boomers need only apply." Full Time employment is only now back to pre-pandemic levels. Recession in 2024 likely to mild and short-lived (6-mos.) How many job openings are there, really? New headline economic data is on the way: look for a bounce in the markets as earnings season returns. bounces are part of the cycle; markets are setting up for a counter-trend rally, at least. Commercial Real Estate remains under pressure w continue of work-from-home trend. What to do w all the empty office buildings and malls? Is the commercial Real Estate paradigm changing? A particular investment structure is not always the best forever. SEG-1: Positioning for EOY SEG-2: What the ISM is Telling Us SEG-3: Why Job Openings Data is So Confounding SEG-4: Is the Commercial Real Estate Paradigm Changing? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_qZ0uUXpFc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "De-Dollarization Goes Bust" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jfOu1CVsYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Congress Kicks the Can Down the Road (again)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laCyaMLhV0o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #ISM #Employment #JobOpenings #DeDollarization #CommercialRealEstate #EndOfYear #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/3/23) The Volatility Index (VIX) has been on the rise for the past month, and now seems to have peaked. We're now watching for a buy signal as we get into the seasonally strong period of the year. Did the de-dollarization story just play out? Anytime there's high inflation, foreign currencies experience additional headwinds, particularly if there is a deviation between their currency and the dollar. It's a combination of dealing with inflation and the deviation in currency rates: A double tax, which is why some countries were trying to figure out how to do business not in the dollar. Since then, the dollar has rallied strongly, and is now extremely over-bought. Expect some weakness to return, but for now, dollar strength remains as foreign currency flows into the dollar to buy US Treasuries. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jfOu1CVsYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #Volatility Index #VIX #Dedollarization #CurrencyDeviation #ForeignCurrency #CurrencyFlow #USTreasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/2/23) Free the Pumpkins, it's October 2nd! Student Loan payments resume, and markets prepare for another earnings season. Expectations have declined, and markets are setting up for a technical rally into 2024. Market futures are flat following the aversion of government shutdown with (another) continued resolution. Why CR's are not good for the economy; mandatory spending explained (it's 2% of GDP). Mandatory Spending = 113% of revenue collected: More debt required each time. There's no good reason/excuse for operating without a budget. A history of government shutdowns & why a long government shut down might not be a bad thing. The issues of "direness" is for media's benefit. Lance's liberal cousin, Duane, comes to call: Utah, Beer, & BBQ; The Roberts' rental home; Target leaving New York City; Black Rifle Coffee Company: Duane goes to TSA "Special Line." Market Preview: 1st day of the new quarter; market volatility no surprise; end-of-year dynamics & Santa Claus rallies; is the Fed done? (Yes, but not saying so). Interest rates remain key conundrum for markets. SEG-1: Earnings Expectations Decline as Reporting Season Begins SEG-2: Crisis Averted? Mandatory Spending = 113% of Revenue SEG-3: A Visit from Lance's Liberal Cousin, Duane SEG-4: End-of-Year Dynamics & Santa Claus Rallies Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laCyaMLhV0o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting up for a Year-end Rally" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxss0c0xcxw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Flaws in Secure Act 2.0" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEK1LnhPYQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CongressionalSpending #GovernmentShutdown #EarningsSeason #LoweredExpectations #BlackRifleCoffee #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/2/23) Futures are flat after being elevated following Sunday's passage of another Continuing Resolution to keep the Federal Government running for another 45-days (without a budget). We're about to walk right into another earnings season, and from a technical perspective, markets are doing okay, and starting to flatten the bottom. It would not be surprising to see markets establish a lower high by the end of the year. Markets are on track to finish the year with about a 12% gain. There is potential for a near-term rally in October into November, but December could be a little "iffy." Markets can always do things you don't expect. We're about 8% into a 10% correction, and that's the set up for a year-end rally. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxss0c0xcxw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #YearEndRally #LowerLows #ContinuingResolution #EarningsSeason #MarketCorrection #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/29/23) Candy Corn martini's & market commentary; why Larry Fink won't be surprised with higher structural inflation: Permatory inflation. No one is ready for rates to be higher for longer. The uptick in 401-k loans and why we can't save: More credit card debt, car payments, and mortgage payments. Flaw in Secure Act 2.0: Elimination of some catch-up provisions. Boosting the Roth: Paying taxes now before taxes increase, which they will. Mrs. Roberts' Halloween decorations; old westerns & Medicare marketing; the pitfalls of Medicare Advantage plans; Open Enrollment strategies: Always shop Park-D. Candid Coffee preview; How to take Social Security survivor benefits: The folly of taking SS too soon, and effects on spousal benefits. SEG-1: Why No One is Ready for Higher Rates for Longer SEG-2: Flaws in Secure Act 2.0 & Why We Can't Save SEG-3: Old Westerns & Medicare Marketing SEG-4: Candid Coffee preview; How to Take SS Survivor's Benefits Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEK1LnhPYQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Fed in a Trap?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #InterestRates #SecureAct #Retirement #Medicare #MedicareAdavantage #OpenEnrollment #SocialSecurity #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession. GDP revisions are rear-view data: Is the Fed in a trap? 7% interest rates are ludicrous; putting "crisis" into perspective. Why things WERE different in 1995: The Yield Curve was not inverted, and did not invert until 1998. Market commentary: Tough week for markets with few drivers and "programmic" selling. Markets are in position to boom ahead of weaker performance next year. Price drives performance and narrative; what's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Group think vs group stink. SEG-1: What's Driving the Markets Now SEG-2: Revising GDP: Is the Fed in a Trap? SEG-3: Why Things WERE Different in 1995 SEG-4: Price Drives the Narrative: What's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We Heading for 7% Interest?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crisis-is-coming-who-is-swimming-naked/ "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GDP #GDI #VIX #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/27/23) Volatility in the markets has been very suppressed of late, but that's changing. Weaker prices and the onset of the quarter's end has caused volatility to tick upward. An increase in the Volatility Index has coincided with the recent market sell-off. When the VIX becomes very over bought, it tends to correspond with the peak of the VIX, and the bottom in the stock markets. We are approaching this point, which also typically coincides with a reversal in the index itself. This is typical of quarter-end rebalancing, and about 25% of all fund managers also have their fiscal year-end at the end of September. Interestingly, 30% of fund managers' fiscal year end occurs in December, so expect a similar sell-off in the first couple of weeks of December. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EndOfQuarter #IndexReversal #VolatilityIndex #VIX #MarketRally #ReflexiveRally #MarketCorrection #Ma

(9/27/23) Is Costco's quarterly earnings report is cause for alarm? Consumer Confidence may be waning; Pessimism is returning as an early sign of economic slowdown. The past 8-sessions have been brutal, but within the "normal" range of an expected 5- to 10% correction. Market is up 11% for the year, driven by 7-stocks; without those stocks, markets are flat. Jamie Dimon's claim for 7% interest is foolish, but he is correct in that the world isn't ready for 7% rates. Higher interest rates increase the risk for financial failures. Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation: Impact of oil prices, energy prices on economy. What happens when consumers absorb price increases: Prices never go back down. This is not like the '70's. Focus on the market drivers and ignore the headlines. Bank of America survey: 70% expect a soft landing without recession in 2024; 20% expect no recession (so recession will probably occur!) The 7 Deadly Sins of End-of-Year Financial Planning include sand-bagging returns, missing RMD's, Gift Tax Exclusions, and Tax Loss Harvesting. Jeff Gundlach's 7% Returns: Beware private bond offerings. Re-defining "Balanced" Allocation; utilizing the Permanent Portfolio Theory. SEG-1: Early Signs of Economic Slowdown SEG-2: Jamie Dimon's Foolishness SEG-3: 7 Deadly Sins of Year-End Financial Planning SEG-4: Redefining "Balanced" Allocations Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Set for Reflexive Rally?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms8tSZWck6U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Compound Market Returns a Myth?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYYLdjRRcn0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/27/23) The past 8-sessions have been brutal, but normal within the context of a need for a 5 to 10% correction. This seasonal pattern of Summer weakness will present the potential for a rally in the 4th quarter. The markets are over-sold, which could foretell a reflexive rally. Remember, this market is essentially still being led by seven stocks, and is up a little over 11% for the year as a result...but a look at the equal-weight index reveals markets are essentially flat for the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms8tSZWck6U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #ReflexiveRally #MarketCorrection #MarketSupport #DownsideRisk #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/26/23) Some market volatility due to quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios. Some downside risk remains. Markets are in search of a catalyst, and trading at the mercy of rebalancing activity. Compounding Market Returns: Mythical or real? Albert Einstein called compound interest the 8th Wonder of the World. It's not the same with market returns (charts for illustration). Calculating yield and coupons for bond investors; understanding investing dynamics and what drives returns. Stocks vs Bonds vs Real Estate: companies can fail, but land will always have value. Life in a mid-century neighborhood. Examining the realities of a government shutdown: Don't let the news media fool you (or scare you)! Non-discretionary payments will continue, and a shutdown will not cause a recession. Avoid the noise in the media. Fatalism vs Optimism. SEG-1: Markets In Search of Catalyst SEG-2: The Myth of Compounding Market Returns SEG-3: Bond Talk & Understanding Investing Dynamics SEG-4: The Realities of Government Shutdown Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYYLdjRRcn0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest the Downside Today?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxoI_gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketReturns #CompoundInterest #ALbertEinstein #Bonds #Coupon #GovernmentShutdown #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/26/23) Markets are holding support and will retest the downside today. There certainly is some downside risk. We're over-sold and the MACD sell signal needs to turn. Statistically, a weak August and September tends to lead to a strong October. We're going through a fairly orderly corrective cycle at present. The bigger risk for a larger correction will be next year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxoI_gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSupport #DownsideRisk #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/25/23) How Taylor Swift and Beyonce moved the GDP needle; wrapping up September and the next earnings season preview; can corporate profit margins be maintained? Will the Fed continue to be wrong? The Risk of testing the 200-DMA: there's always a downside. Setting up for October: MACD to turn positive. 25-yrs ago, the demise of Longterm Capital Management: The beginning of "Too Big to Fail." Every time the Fed raises rates, something breaks. What's wrong with bailouts? Companies aren't allowed to fail. Good bankruptcy vs bad: Restructuring vs liquidation, and the financial system becomes weaker as a result. Financial Failures & Forest Fires: the necessity of culling the herd. The realities of Social Security: Bankrupt by 2031? Debt Ceiling & Gov't. shutdown as they kick the can down the road. Again,. Invest in things you can control. The next big thing to grapple: The end of the Government fiscal year, and the associated threats of government shutdown: The problem with Continuing Resolutions: there's no control on federal spending. It's a blank check + 8%. The ugly truth behind "strong" employment numbers: most new jobs are in the government sector. SEG-1: Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer? SEG-2: The Beginning of Too Big to Fail SEG-3: Financial Failures & Forest Fires SEG-4: The Next Big Thing: End of Gov't. Fiscal Year Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold the Line?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #ProfitMargins #TooBigToFail #GovernmentShutdown #DebtCeiling #ContinuingResolution #TaylorSwift #Beyonce #Markets #Money #Investing

9/25/23) The S&P closed down on Friday after spending most of the day in positive territory in a choppy day of trading. But markets held support going back to the lows of June. But, if markets cannot hold the line over the next few days, there is a risk of testing the 200-DMA, now at 4,180. The MACD Sell-signal, however, is very weak here, but this appears to be a nice set up for moving into the more-seasonally strong period of October thru December. The signal will be that sell-signal flipping to "buy." Downside risk remains until then. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSupport #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/22/23) The Oscar Meyer Weinermobile is returning; Jerome Powell & the shrinking market; the resilience of the consumer is weakening, cooling down. Candid Coffee preview of Progression Planning presentation: Having the Conversation; Trump Tax Cuts are expiring in 2026; what you need to do now; the Roth Solution. Autumn onset; family funds & tax planning; the use of life insurance: Making sure your money goes to family instead of the government. How inflation is affecting financial planning; your advisor must be a student of inflation SEG-1: Oscar Meyer Mobile & Shrinking Market SEG-2: Candid Coffee Promo/Preview SEG-3: BlackRock and Tax Cut Expirations SEG-4: Autumn Onset & Family Fund Tax Planning Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #TrumpTaxCuts #FinancialPlanning #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/21/23) The markets' response to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and comments from Jerome Powell were the same as the past eight such announcements. The unspoken question: When will the Fed begin to cut rates? Preparation for Q4 is underway as earnings season wraps; markets are close to end of current corrective phase, and volatility is beginning to warm up. The Fed offered no hope or magical language for Markets. Higher for Longer will be the theme, with no material change from previous statements. The Fed's economic projections are never correct. We're expecting negative revisions to previous GDP numbers. Are higher interest rates here to stay? Does the "neutral rate" reflect what's happening or what's lagging? Demographics are destiny. What the Fed didn't say: What's coming will drive policy; a "soft-landing" is not the Fed's base-line expectation. The Fed WANTS Recession. SEG-1: Market Response in FOMC Aftermath SEG-2: What the Fed Said SEG-3: Higher Interest Rates Forever? SEG-4: What the Fed Didn't Say Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IOGmhwnntw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is This Time Different- Unpacking Bond Yields" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-this-time-different-unpacking-bond-yields/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Demographics #NeutralRate #BondYields #GDP #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/21/23) Market Futures are pointing lower this morning following yesterday's FOMC announcement essentially promising higher rates for longer. However, markets may close to the end of the current corrective phase as we head into a third-straight week of sloppiness. Markets will today challenge the 100-DMA, and could go a little below that. We're thinking support on the S&P will be right around 4,300 which may be the bottom of the sell off. We're also noticing an uptick in volatility now. So we're seeing a bit of selling pressure today, with buying in the afternoon. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid for fly balls & Christina Roberts' money tree. The new Retirement Bill: take risk in taxable accounts. Can the Fed achieve a "soft-landing," what is that, anyway? Pandemic effect on employment & investing. The challenging year; who'll cave first in congressional budget talks? SEG-1: FOMC Day Preview SEG-2: Are We Doing Bonds Wrong? SEG-3: FedEx Barometer for Retail Sales, and Feeding Kids SEG-4: Can the Fed Achieve a "Soft Landing?" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Waiting for the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #GovernmentShutdown #Bonds #ForeignDebt #FedExBarometer #CerealIndex #RetailSales #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/20/23) The market is glued to what the Fed will say this afternoon following its monthly FOMC meeting. Despite the volatility and choppiness recently, markets have really gone nowhere. Markets are operating within a very confined consolidation range. Regardless of the Fed's comments today, the result will likely be a directional move to one side or the other. Hawkish comments will likely send markets to the downside, or at least remain within the consolidation zone, but a dovish approach could elevate stocks anew. There is downside risk, but the most-likely result will be the continuation of the consolidation process. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/19/23) What's wrong with prepping for Halloween...in September? Fed meeting preview; earnings season is all but done, oil prices are creeping up, most over-bought commodity, so look for a pullback; Dovish Fed & Market consolidation continues w suppressed volatility. Will there be weakness in October to set up for run into the end of the year? (Charts & graphs) Why Fed GDP growth projections are too high (and never correct). Lower inflation gives Fed room to not raise rates yet; odds of market shock are low. The problem with data is the lag effect: It's all early guesswork. Are ETF's good for the markets, long-term? Why issue an ETF as a loss-leader? (How do issuers make money on ETF's?? Liquidity in Order-flow (there's no free lunch). At what point does market distortion by EFT's become a problem? SEG-1: Preparing for October & Fed Meeting Preview SEG-2: October Weakness Before Year-end Rally? SEG-3: The Problem with Lag Effect in Data SEG-4: What Will Be the Unintended Effects of EFT's? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Economy Trifecta This Month" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/19/23) The market is beginning to price-in what they expect to happen, essentially holding flatly against a consolidation line. Markets are close to being over-sold and close to triggering a short-term sell-signal. That could reverse, should the market rally. A dovish Fed meeting outcome could be that spark. Markets are now setting up for that seasonably strong period of the year, but not quite there, yet, with confidence settling and sentiment returning. There certainly is room for markets to break to the downside; volatility has been very suppressed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/18/23) Last week's market pressure came from economic numbers; this week, it's the Fed meeting, and the 'will they, won't they' question about raising rates. Most likely, the Fed will hold steady with not rate hike this month. There is an economic trifecta bearing down on markets: The resumption of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and the renewed threat of a government shutdown. September seems to be a month of significance: Historically, the Lehman failure, 9/11... Markets closed down +1% on Friday thanks to extreme options expirations. Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; Why the UAW Strike isn't the end of the world, but will impact economic activity. Resumption of student loan repayments and government shutdown have more risk to economy. Pizza Sales indicator; the pay disparity myth: it's a job-choice issue. The Myth of Bond Vigilantes; how looking for a recession has morphed into looking for a soft landing; when all the experts agree, something else happens. The Fed is expected to hold firm on rates. There's been only one soft-landing since the end of WW2. The data is flawed: We don't know what we don't know. SEG-1: The Significance of September SEG-2: Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; The Economic Trifecta SEG-3: The Myth of the Bond Vigilantes SEG-4: Four Threats Against a Soft Landing Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Will Buying Power Return? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Your 90-Year Old Parent Moves-in" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/18/23) Markets closed down a little more than 1% on Friday, taking out the 20- and 50-DMA. Friday was strange due to the largest options expirations on record: A lot of stocks had to be sold and there were a lot of puts on companies that had top be rolled over, creating an outsized level of volatility on Friday. Markets are now solidly sitting on support atop a consolidation pattern we've been in for a few weeks, after grinding through this seasonably weak period of the year. Markets will be positioning ahead of this week's Fed meeting, so additional weakness over the next several days would not be surprising. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/15/23) Predictions are for no more rate hikes for a while; UAW Strike is on: What do you do if you need a car now? How to plan for taking care of elderly parents. At what age are best financial decisions made? Financial literacy peaks at 54; " eureka moment" at 45. What happens when your 90-year old parent moves-in? How to talk about aging and finances: When it's time to take away the financial keys; planning ahead to avoid animosity. The documentation you need: Wills, Directives, TOD's, & Trusts; Fidelity FidSafe, online access to accounts. What do you do with all that junk...er, those heirlooms? SEG-1: The UAW Strike: What if You Need a Car? SEG-2: The Best Age for Making Financial Decisions SEG-3: How to Talk About Aging & Financials SEG-4: What Do You Do With the Junk? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, Senior Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Up with Inflation?" v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #ElderlyParents #Eldercare #FinancialKeys #FinancialDiscussion #FinancialLiteracy #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/14/23) The ARM IPO debuts today at $51/share; why IPO's aren't a good deal. PPI preview; CPI review: Inflation up on fuel prices and housing costs; the Fed is on hold for now. Market Volatility is very low on a deep sell signal; potential triggers could be the UAW Strike at midnight tonight, government shutdown fears in October, and the reimposition of student loan payments sucking revenue from retail sales. The impact of oil prices on inflation is negligible compared to shelter costs (accounting for over 1/3rd of CPI). Don't expect a large bump in inflation from energy costs. Core Inflation vs Headline Data: Why inflation is calculated this way. What will the Fed do next? They're not saying in order to avoid a market rally. Job Creation planning is at an 8-year low. No more payroll growth = no economic expansion; employment levels now returning to "normal." Traffic tickets & home-life discussions at the Roberts'; market preview & EOY investing strategies; market performance YTD; the need for portfolio managers to "play catch-up" to preserve their jobs. Look for a reversal of stock buyback suppression; 2024 may be "The Year of Value." SEG-1: Is the Fed on Hold? SEG-2: Interpreting Inflation SEG-3: What Will the Fed Do Next? SEG-4: Traffic Tickets, Homelife Discussions, & EOY Investing Strategies Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Mortgage Lenders Created Unaffordable Housing" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGh81vUL7Aw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PPI #EnergyPrices #Shelter #Volatility #ARMIPO #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/14/23) Volatility remains exceptionally low, despite CPI and inflation news. The sell signal is now pretty deep. What could trigger the next round of volatility? An impending strike by United Auto Workers at midnight tonight, which would immediately affect used car prices, as well as impact Q4 performance; another potential government shutdown in October could impact economic growth; also, student loan repayments return in October, potentially pulling spending out of retail sales, which could also impact economic growth in Q4. The way forward is not clear, so pay attention to volatility. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #MarketVolatility #UAWstrike #StudentLoanRepayment #GovernmentShutdown #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, then sold off yesterday; who can afford an iPhone 15? CPI for August to be released this morning (3.7% vs anticipated 3.6%). Lenders are now rolling out a 1% down payment program in hopes of reviving their business. The thing about home ownership: It's always something. How do mortgage lenders do it? They eat part of the rate up front, but YOU will pay for it on the back end. What does a larger (20%) down payment say about financial ability? The cost of home ownership goes beyond being able to afford a mortgage payment; home prices are a function of supply & demand. No one wants to sell into a housing market with 7% mortgage rates. The tricks home builders use; How "good" do Baby Boomers have it (and why)? Time to invest, bull markets; thought processes about money, managing expenses. What is an IPOP all about: It's NOT selling at a discount. (Fiscal responsibility doesn't sell products) What do 20% of Gen-Z's want to be? Social Media influencers. Switching from spending to saving mode. SEG-1: The Apple Reveal: Who Can Afford an iPhone? SEG-2: Is the 1% Down Payment a Win-win? SEG-3: The Cost of Home Ownership: Why Prices are Too High SEG-4: Why Baby Boomers have it So "Good" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGh81vUL7Aw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rising Bottoms & Declining Tops" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bad News Spells Opportunity" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Inflation #MortageRates #AffordableHousing #DownPayment #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, and then sold off. The wedge pattern of rising bottoms and declining tops is becoming more pronounced and more compressed, and prices are going to have to make a move out of this tighter range fairly soon. The question is, what will be the trigger? Headline Core Inflation was expected to print at .6% year over year (it did), but month over month inflation increased at a 3.7% rate vs the expected 3.6%. These numbers could lead to a decline of as much as 1.5% in the S&P today. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/12/23) The markets have gone 95-days since any correction of at least 1.5%; today is Apple day: Where did the hype all go? Tomorrow's CPI report is expected to show inflation a tad higher, but not enough to trigger another Fed rate hike. Yet. Weakness in the Labor market is becoming more apparent. Options traders are piling into Zero-DTE's, essentially gambling on the market. Volatility has calmed, a precursor for higher volatility. The Fiscal Year for the Federal Government is coming to a close (again) with no budget since Bush was in office. Remembering how government spending used to be: One item, one bill (pre-WW2). Temporary mass-spending bills are now the norm. What does the threat of "Government Shutdown" really entail? There is no risk of debt default or SS non-payment. 5th Circuit Court rules on internet censorship and collusion between Biden administration & social media platforms to violate 1st Amendment. Dealing w mis-information; why opposing views are important. The "Global Warming" narrative has evolved into "Climate Change;" follow the money. Market futures; Raytheon's 16% drop on engine recalls; why it pays to be contrarian. Bad news can sometimes mean opportunity. SEG-1: Where'd the Hype Go at Apple? SEG-2: What Does a Gov't Shutdown Really Entail? SEG-3: What the Internet Should Be All About SEG-4: When Bad News Spells Opportunity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Zero-DTE Options: Gamble or Good?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGF6yshrJ7s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Biggest Head-scratchers This Year" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm3PgLBY76g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=57s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Raytheon #MarketVolatility #Options #GovernmentShutdown #Internet #1stAmemendment #ClimateChange #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/12/23) Options traders continue to pile-in to short-dated options, or Zero-DTE (Days to Expiration) options, essentially gambling in terms of the general market. This is no surprise, considering we've gone 95-days without any significant 1.5% correction, and there's basically no volatility, and no real concern in terms of taking on risk. Despite a 5% correction in August, which did lead to a small up-tick in volatility, that has now becalmed. So, volatility levels are as low as they've ever been since September of last year. But here's the deal: Ultra-low volatility eventually leads to high volatility, and so the current level should be viewed as a warning sign of things to come. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGF6yshrJ7s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #ZeroDTEoptions #Volatility #Options #MarketCorrection #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/11/23) Football Season returns (yawn); CPI/PPI Preview, Oracle's earnings; how will uptick in oil prices affect CPI calculations? (not much); Apple takes a 6% hit on China iPhone ban, but no real impact on NASDAQ. Remembering 9/11 22-years later. One of the big head-scratchers this year is why we haven't had a recession. A look at the Citi Surprise Index; when economic data points diverge. How the economy works: What comes first, Production or Consumption; is there really job-creation or just re-hiring of those laid off in the pandemic? Hostess & Smucker's to merge: Looking at the possibilities; will higher oil prices create surprise inflation (makes up on 7% of CPI)? The problem with lags in economic data; GDP will have to "catch-down" to GDI. SEG-1: Economic Reports - What Makes Up the CPI? SEG-2: Remembering 9/11; When Economic Datapoints Diverge SEG-3: Chicken or Egg; Production or Consumption? SEG-4: Smucker's & Hostess Marriage & Offspring Combinations; Oil Prices, & Fed Stance on Rates now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm3PgLBY76g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=57s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Apple's Big Bite Means for Markets " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slpBNFB8Nm0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "6 Medicare Landmines to Avoid" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnl-e0orht0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #OilPrices #9_11 #EconomicDivergence #Production #Consumption #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/11/23) Apple declined nearly 6% last week following news of China banning iPhone use by its government officials. But Apple's souring did not affect the overall NASDAQ, which has been driven of late by 7 main stocks; despite Apple's decline, the NASDAQ continued to rally on Thursday and Friday to finish at the 50-DMA. Apple tomorrow rolls out its new iPhone 15, new iPods and watches, which should be a big driver for the company. Note: the S&P 500 Equal Weight index, which eliminates the outsized effects of Apple and other mega-caps, has gone virtually nowhere this year. The performance of mid-cap and small-cap stocks has been even more dismal this year. For now, Mega-caps continue to drive the markets...but that could change. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slpBNFB8Nm0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #iPhone #China #Megacap #MidCap #SmallCap #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/8/23) Spending Lottery winnings; no more drilling = higher fuel prices; Candid Coffee tease; A flounder markets: Odds of Fed pause increasing; the threat of government shutdown & market ripples? Congress as "Animal House:" Oil Prices & Apple; market dynamics & touch psychology: Managing expectations. Healthcare premium increases for 2024 = 6.5%: Dealing w realities of Inflation. Zip Lock Bags & Canned goods; Medicare landmines to avoid: importance of pre-Medicare planning; will your doctor accept Medicare? Medigap/supplemental coverage window. Silly climate activists; more Medicare landmines: dealing w enrollment & underwriting; what happens if you go back to work?? HSA's vs Medicare. SEG-1: Flounder Markets & Government Spending Battles SEG-2: Managing Expectations in Tough Times SEG-3: Ziplock Bags & Medicare Landmines SEG-4: More Medicare Landmines Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnl-e0orht0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why We Sold TLT" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why We Did a Big Bond Swap" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA4t87EVRuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Medicare #Medigap #FederalReserve #GovernmentShutdown #GovernmentDebt #HealthSavingsAccount #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/7/23) Earnings season is wrapping up, just in time to get ready for the NEXT quarter's earnings reports! What do Parking Lot Reports and the markets have in common? Not much going on. Waiting for the lag; rising oil prices; markets sold off, and about to give a pullback, a normal function. Apple iPhones restricted in China: Is this an opportunity for more exposure? Market correction in a bullish trend. Preview of next Fed Meeting (9/20): One more look at Inflation. Prediction: Fed will do nothing as inflation normalizes. Economy IS slowing, recession IS coming, but lag effect not hitting for 6-moths? Effects of higher rates will take longer to be felt. The Big Bond Swap: Why we sold TLT. All economic markers for the next 20-years are downward; looking to futures & what if's. Advantages of bonds include guaranteed payback of principal; guaranteed income stream. Government Bonds and Risk-free Debt: Is it, really? Why higher interest rates are unsustainable; economy is debt-dependent. The myth of "Bond Vigilantes;" what happens when interest rates become an impediment to the economy. SEG-1: Parking Lot Reports & Market Activity SEG-2: Next Fed Meeting Preview SEG-3: The Big Bond Swap SEG-4: Is Government Debt Really "Risk Free" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA4t87EVRuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why We Sold TLT" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "7 Investment Types You Should Avoid" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1NYwasSS0A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondSwap #OilPrices #InterestRates #BondYields #FederalReserve #GovernmentDebt #RiskFree #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/7/23) Rising interest rates have been a big concern, affecting all businesses, households, and investors. With higher bond yields in the face of lower growth rates, we deemed it prudent to take advantage of an opportunity to lock-in +4% yields for the next two decades at a time that economic indicators are all pointing downward. Michael Lebowitz & Lance Roberts discuss why and how they executed their bond swap this week. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O_KdxR2kQY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-free-government-debt-fact-or-fiction/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondSwap #TLT #20YrTreasuries #Yields #StockPrices #Interest Rates #Demographics #EconomicGrowth #Recession #Money #Investing

(9/6/23) All those Jobs numbers deserve a look under the hood: Are we really creating new jobs or just replacing the ones that went away? NOTE: Following each Jobs Report, revisions are made to previous numbers; this year's revisions are the most negative since the financial crisis. Are Jobs numbers a Recession indicator? The Risk remains. Markets in Correctional Period, VIX suppression vs history; investors have no apparent fear of Recession. Sleeping-in & Zip-lock bags; everyone is convinced no Recession is coming. All indicators say otherwise. How the bottom 80% are living. Investment types you should avoid: Speculative assets (ex.: Irani Dinar craze); Private REIT's: Why are they being offered to YOU?? Liquidity is key: When do you get your money back? Who is making the money on the deal? I-bonds: No one understands them. Any investment you don't understand. "High Yield" Bonds = High risk. Leverages ETF's: Risky; Commodities: are really options w decay of premium, and subject to boom/bust cycles. SEG-1: Jobs Picture May Not Be So Robust SEG-2: Sleeping Late, Ziplock Bags, No Recession? SEG-3: Investment Types You Should Avoid, Pt-1 SEG-4: Investment Types You Should Avoid, Pt-2 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Investors Have No Fear of Recession" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO8bZRTgK0w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Can Mega-caps Continue to Lead?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkGxDBzOJNE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Downside of Diversity" (WSJ) https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/05/world/americas/05iht-diversity.1.6986248.html "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JobsReport #Employment #Recession #ZipLockBags #Cereal #InvestmentTypes #SpeculativeAssets #REIT #IraqiDinar #Liquidity #iBonds #HighYield #JunkBonds #LeveragedETF #Commodities #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/6/23) Markets are doing okay, down a little bit yesterday, interest rates were up a bit because of oil prices; markets continue to do what they do during this August-September correctional period. But a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which is very, very supressed right now, has picked up in recent days due to the choppiness of the market. But as a whole, volatility is repressed relative to where we've been historically. Investors seem to have no fear of a correction in the market, nor of recession. But historically, these periods of low volatility have always preceded a bigger market correction. What triggers that? Who knows? Note also that dividend yields are lower than where they should be in this market, suggesting that yields will be higher in the future. But in order for yields to go up, stock price have to come down. Not knowing when or what will cause the change is unsettling, which is why volatility is one thing to watch as an "early warning signal" for changes up ahead. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO8bZRTgK0w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #Volatility #VIX #Yields #StockPrices #MarketCorrection #Recession #Money #Investing

(9/5/23) Markets are entering the "weak" month of September, the home of when things fall apart; barring any catastrophe, the month should prove to be flat. August Jobs Report shows higher unemployment = slower spending = lower inflation, the Fed's goal. Popcorn shrinkflation at Costco. Why Mega-cap stocks continue to lead the market: Growth of ETF's, and money must be invested for safety & liquidity. Why the Deficit declined: reduced spending; deficit now doubling due to more spending, which has again deferred Recession. The widening gap between spending and revenues; inflation is always a monetary phenomenon (fiscal policy). Government money now being spent on non-productive debt. The Fed's role in Government debt; circular logic in government math & accounting. The downside of Diversity: What is the benefit of DE&I (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion): When diversity is higher, charitable donations and cooperation decline; why are companies pushing DE&I? Employees are less-inclined to unionize. The Value of Social Capital. SEG-1: Market Rally Continues SEG-2: Will Mega-caps Continue to Lead? SEG-3: Government Math & Circular Accounting Logic SEG-4: The Downside of DE&I Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkGxDBzOJNE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Where Money is Hiding" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npFqaJnJZjM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How We're Fighting Inflation Now" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldE2JtxJ_54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Downside of Diversity" (WSJ) https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/05/world/americas/05iht-diversity.1.6986248.html "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MegaCap #JobsReport #Unemployment #Shrinkflation #Deficit #GovernmentMath #DEI #Diversity #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/5/23) The month of September is officially kicking-off, with a nice, upside close on Friday; a continuation of an upward trend. A buy-signal is in place, and markets are starting to get a little over-bought in the short-term, but not egregiously so. Futures this morning are pointing at a little bit of a weaker opening. The 50-DMA is sitting above the 20-DMA, providing two levels of support around 4,450. A pullback today would be okay, even healthy, in selling off some of the over-boughtenness in the markets, and allow for a better entry point to put your money to work. Money continues to hide in Mega-cap stocks as a function of liquidity and safety. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MegaCap #20DMA #50DMA #200DMA #Liquidity #Safety #Money #Investing

(9/4/23) Debt service is diverting revenue from economic growth. The Fed is stuck between high rates and high inflation. How home builders are revising house plans to meet buyer realities. As goes China, so goes others' economies. Example of economic failure: China's empty cities & transportation systems = artificial growth. No one is using them. The "beauty" Socialism and Communism is always undone by human nature. Do we really want a "Do Whatever it Takes" economy? Why Baby Boomers are the luckiest generation alive: slotted into time period with remarkable market gains. Why are we afraid of recession? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Have Markets Set the High for the Year?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbzKie4F5Kk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will September Be Better than August?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2Mq_Rp1_yA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HurricaneIdalia #MarketRally #FOMO #InvestorSentiment #Socialism #Communism #HumanNature #BabyBoomers #InterestRates #Inflation #China #LAgEffect #ESG #Blackrock #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/1/23) Anticipating Jobs Report (187k vs 170k estimated); bad news is good news. Inflation is here to stay; wage growth is slowly cooling; Lending Club survey on living paycheck to paycheck & non-essential spending. The "winter" of society is here; Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning is Here;" the need for household financial rules; the geopolitical risk seems higher than at anytime in our lifetimes. The need for a financial vulnerability cushion. The manipulation by the media. The foolishness of allowing political sentiment to guide investment. Preview of our next Candid Coffee, Financial Fitness Podcast, and show swag; Changes in 529's and what to do with left-over money; filling out the FAFSA; the FAFSA Simplification Act. How grandparents can contribute to college education. Advantages of going to trade school. What is a university's ROI? Thrift Store Finds & Old Homes' Walls; the Secure Act should be called the "Rothification Act of America;" what happens in 2026?? Forced catch-up in Roth implications & tax rule sunset. SEG-1: Inflation is Here to Stay SEG-2: Living Paycheck to Paycheck & Non-essential Spending SEG-3: Coming Changes in 529's & FAFSA SEG-4: Thrift Store Finds; the Rothification of America Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldE2JtxJ_54&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will September Weakness Return?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Has the Fed Already Broken Something?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWmqq-Eqr2o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inflation And Deficits And QT, Oh My -Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-and-deficits-and-qt-oh-my-part-2 "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JobsReport #Inflation #InterestRates #TheFourthTurning #PaycheckToPaycheck #529 #FAFSA #GeopoliticalRisk #Roth #Markets #Money #Investing

(8/31/23) Markets prepare to move into September, with weaker ADP report, downward revision to GDP, and a large gap between GDP vs GDI (Gross Domestic Income). GDP is on the rise, GDI is declining; what will revisions show? The deviation between income vs production must be rectified. Market rally continues; September may not be as weak as historical averages suggest, thanks to August action. Is GDP actually lower than reported? Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate;" Powell holding firm on 2% inflation goal. The real impact of more debt on economic growth: There is a negative multiplier. Hurricane Idalia & The Broken Window Theory; pulling forward consumption. Earnings & Economic Report previews; noting the shift from "Meta" mentions to "AI" in earnings reports. Parsing Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: blaming Ukraine war for inflation, with no mention of inflationary effect of stimulus money flooding the economy. The arsonist gets the Nobel Prize for putting out the fire. Has the Fed already broken something? Dollar General reports 16% decline: Has Dollar General become the 84-cent Store? The Lag Effect is evident in consumer spending; there are two stories: Gov't Data vs on the street data. Resumption of Student Loan payments & Sally Mae notices. What happens to small- and mid-cap companies when loans come due in a higher-rate environment? Investors are hiding in mega-cap companies flush w cash and low-rate debt. SEG-1: GDP on the rise, GDI in Decline SEG-2: Defining the Fed's "Neutral Rate" SEG-3: Earnings & Economic Reports Preview; Jerome Powell's blame for Inflation SEG-4: Dollar General drops 16%: Lag Effect is Evident Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWmqq-Eqr2o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will September Weakness Return?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_9akXBRrU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Markets Cleared Resistance" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1UKs7gc6TE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inflation And Deficits And QT, Oh My -Part 2" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-and-deficits-and-qt-oh-my-part-2 "10 Best Days – A Meme For Every Bull Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-best-days-a-meme-for-every-bull-market/ "Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deficit-surge-will-lead-to-lower-rates-not-higher/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #HurricaneIdalia #EconomicImpact #MarketRally #InterestRates #NeutralRate #Inflation #BrokenWindowTheory #Markets #Money #Investing