The Real Investment Show Podcast

(11/23/22) Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That's the Fed's conundrum. What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- This segment was excerpted from a previous live stream, which can be fully viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FAANGstocks #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #Markets #Money #Investing

What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FAANGstocks #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/21/23) Earnings Season continues with NVIDIA set to report this evening after the bell: expectations are high, and if there's a miss, markets may punish. Markets have become very elevated only a month after everyone was so pessimisti. The Bond Market continues to surprise with a stellar acution of 20-year bonds. Will there be a Recession, a soft-landing, or no Reccession in 2024? Who knows?? Markets are over bought and need to take a breather at this point. The Recovering Californian & real turkey; the annual performance comparison: Don't make this mistake! Why your portfolio hasn't kept up with the S&P this year; the problem with comparisons; the origin of Turduckens; the truth about Home Sales numbers. SEG-1: Recession, Soft-landing, or No Recession in 2024? SEG-2: Why the S&P is Up 17% and You're Not SEG-3: The Evil of Comparisons SEG-4: Thanksgiving Eve eve, Turduckens, & Home Sales Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfns3GpZZ2Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMOtmA1IJ8w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Year of The Magnificent Seven" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "S&P 500 Market Returns And Why Your Performance Is Worse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-market-returns-and-why-your-performance-is-worse/ "Complacency Seems Overly Complacent" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-seems-overly-complacent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #NVIDIA #AI #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/21/23) Markets had a good day on Monday on low volume to start a holiday shortened trading week, pushing into three standard deviations from the 50-DMA. While that's not a huge bear flag, markets just over bought at this point, typically this will be followed by some type of pullback. There is presently a big gap between the 50- and 20-DMA, but the 20- is about to cross above the 50-DMA, providing bullish support for markets. Money flow indicators are about to flip to negative, for another indication of a market peak. This could be the set up for a year end rally, and where that rally might take us is anyone's guess. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMOtmA1IJ8w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Complacency Seems Overly Complacent" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-seems-overly-complacent/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketConsolidation #MarketPullback 20-DMA 50-DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/20/23) A look at the highest-grossing horror films of all time, and holiday week markets: July's market exuberance was followed by a predicted decline into October, which was entirely normal for any given year. Now markets are over bought, and another pullback is imminent, likely between now and next week. Meanwihle, with many traders on holiday, silly season has descended upon Wall street. Portfolio managers will be rebalancing for end-of-year reporting and distributions. How will 2024 fare? Consumer Spending will be the driver. Automobiles & airfares are cheaper than one year ago; can these help create an "updraft" for the economy? There's no slowdown in activity...yet. Coming will be holiday retails sales & Black Friday; the Roberts' Christmas Wish Lists. Market preview; Gold trading sideways; oil prices are due for a rise; NVIDIA earnings expected to be high (but could disappoint); Retail sales data released this week will be for October: Look for commentary on foot traffic and consumption patterns. SEG-1: Horror Films and Holiday Markets SEG-2: Silly Season Has Arrived SEG-3: Holiday Travel, Inflation , & Making Ends Meet SEG-4: Market Preview: What Retail Sales will Say Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqHz--Lwcy0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Defining "Safe" Retirement Spending: Is the 4% Rule Back?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR6uRWwmEY8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Complacency Seems Overly Complacent" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-seems-overly-complacent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketPullback #HolidayTrading #SillySeason #RetailSales #HolidayTravel #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #Thanksgiving #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/20/23) Back in July we noted heightened market complacency following a run up into the Suymmer, and that we were due for a correction of between 5- and 10%, which would be absolutely normal in any given year. The market subsequently peaked, and then declined into October for a 10.3% correction. THe follow up rally cleared all the moving averages, and are now strugling with September's highs, holding out at about 4,500, which is a good level for resistance. Markets are now exptremely over bought on all fronts, suggesting that between now and next week, we'll get some type of a pullback, and that will give you a better entry point. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqHz--Lwcy0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Complacency Seems Overly Complacent" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-seems-overly-complacent/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketConsolidation #MarketPullback #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso's adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality, and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart's results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American's still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back...for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant. SEG-1: Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality SEG-2: Butterball Turkey Talk Line & Spending Results for 2023 SEG-3: Withdrawal rates & Recency Bias: Ramsey is Wrong SEG-4: Sequence of Returns Risks & Guaranteed Income Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR6uRWwmEY8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Year of The Magnificent Seven" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetirementSpending #4%Rule #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #ButterballTurkey #Thanksgiving #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven--those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year's gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten exuberance leads to more spending & inflation. 20- Fed speakers this week made no mention of this. Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That's the Fed's conundrum. What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. SEG-1: The Year of the Magnificent Seven SEG-2: The Fed's Problem w Easing Financial Conditions SEG-3: The Fed's Inflation Conundrum SEG-4: What Does the Fed Know They're not Telling Us? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FAANGstocks #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/16/23) Markets continue to work through earnings season; WalMart missed guidance in reporting their earnings estimates for the year. This has been a good year for WalMart vs Target, which had a great day yesterday: Target, too, missed earnings estimates, but not as badly as feared. Target stock was up 20% as a result. WalMart has had a great year, but will git hit a bit harder today on weaker forward-looking guidance. Markets have had a sharp advance over the last few days; as the end of the month approaches, and everyone thought markets would go lower, with bearish, negative sentiment, markets are now overbought, and there is a good chance for at least some consolidation or an outright pullback. When that happens, that's your opportunity to put some capital to work. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #Target #WalMart #MarketConsolidation #MarketPullback #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/15/23) What if Congress conducted its business in the fighting ring? Democracy is now Idiocracy. Market response to weaker CPI numbers results in a rally, and the Fed is done with raising rates. But...lower inflation numbers will be an encouragement for more sonsumer spending and elevate market moods, resulting in inflation. Markets rally through the 100-DMA, becoming key support. Markets are now over bought after retracing 78.6% of losses from the highs of Summer. PPI Preview & Christmas Shopping free for wall; don't be surprised by a market stall; bond yields are bouncing around; don't count the consumer down and out just yet. Understanding market sentiment through technical analysis. The need for confirmnation; the Death Cross in the Dow: Headlines and false narratives. Toyota's hybrid Camry; Secure Act 2.0 and changes to 529's: What if the money's not used? Defininf "college expenses," accountable to the IRS. The value of harvesting grant money for college; hiring a grant consultant. SEG-1: Market Response to Weaker CPI SEG-2: Never Rule-out the Consumer SEG-3: Understanding Market Sentiment thru Technical Analysis SEG-4: Changes to 529 Plans under Secure Act 2.0 Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Watch for Pullbacks Toward the 100-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5I57xSvoo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Economy Slowing More than We Know?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr0oq5N4m3Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #College529 #SecureAct2 #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/15/23) Markets not only held support at the 100-DMA, but smashed through higher on Tuesday. Now, the 100-DMA is the default support level, and any pullback towards that level will be a buying opportunity for the short term. Markets are now in overbought territory, and we're expecting a round of profit taking; don't know what the catalyst might be, but we've now achieved a 78.6% retracement of the entire decline from this Summer's highs. That's good. But, use any dips going forward to rebalance risk in your portfolio, particularly if you were nervousduring October's lows. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5I57xSvoo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketResistance #MarketSupport #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/14/23) This is the last, full week of trading before the holidays hit; What will drive today's CPI number: Home owners' equivalent rent. Can the S&P exceed Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, still no the backs of large cap companies; market is bifurcated vs mid- and small-cap companies. Oil Prices are under pressure; Gold is trading in a flat range. Markets are shrugging off bad news; spending bill needs to be done by Friday; Lance's budget commentary, and what really happens when the government shuts down. Why Home Depot is a bellwether for consumer spending; The economy is likely slowing down even more than we know. Self-checking groceries in inflationary times: Shrinkage goes from 2% to 4%. The collision of what you need vs what you can afford. Shopping on Amazon. If spending is slower, lower earnings and yields will result. The dynamic of economic sentiment and presidential elections. Financial Times poll: Are you better off now? 35% yes/65% no. 82% see rising prices as stressors. What to do about inflation? Stop spending money in Washington. SEG-1: Last Full Week of Trading Before Holidays SEG-2: Markets Shrugging off Bad News SEG-3: Home Depot: The Bellwether for Consumer Spending SEG-4: Economic Sentiment & Presidential Elections Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr0oq5N4m3Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Under Pressure" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7QOZ3OImww&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZvwtGypsLQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=31s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Speculator Or Investor? What's The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #HomeDepot #EconomicBellwether #CongressionalSpending #CongressionalBudget #EconomicSentiment #PresidentialElection #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/14/23) Could the S&P rally to last Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, as the climb to year-end continues. Markets remain bifurcated, however, with a disconnect between large cap vs small- and medium-cap stock performance. Oil prices are under pressure, and Gold remains in a flat trading range. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7QOZ3OImww&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketResistance #MarketSupport #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #BifurcatedMarket #Oil #Gold #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/13/23) CPI for October comes out tomorrow; PPI is released on Thursday; we're looking at sloppy trading until after Thanksgiving; how much will the resumption of student loan payments impact consumer spending for the holidays? Bond Yields are dropping in anticipation of recession. Markets on Friday retreated, then tested and surpassed 50-DMA, onward to the 100-DMA. Some stalling expected today; use subsequent rally to reduce portfolio risk. The next Congressional spending battle looms; how to cut spending: Adopt a budget. No budget in place since Obama. We could use a good government shut down for about 45-days or so. 60th Anniversary of The Improv (when comedians were clean AND funny). 2024 Economic Preview: Recession coming? The Employment Conundrum: There have been no new jobs added, just re-hires of pandemic-layoffs. The Door Dash Story: No more customer service. Lance's next gig: Dog Psychologist. SEG-1: CPI/PPI Preview SEG-2: The Next Spending Battle SEG-3: 2024 Economic Preview: Recession or No? SEG-4: Door Dash, Customer Service, & Pet Psychics Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZvwtGypsLQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=31s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Using the Rally to Rebalance Risk" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NYrwVgUNvg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Would You Give Up to Ensure SS is Around for You? " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIl7mL-W5gg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Recession #BondYields #Employment #CongressionalSpending #CongressionalBudget #SoftLanding #BondMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/13/23) Markets retested the 50-DMA on Friday, and blasted on through to the 100_DMA. Some stalling is expected this morning, but any subsequent rally should be taken advantage of to rebalance portfolio risks. Expect sloppy trading between now and Thanksgiving. Don't be surprised to see a bit of a makret pullback this week; so, far the NASDAQ is up over 7% for the month, and we're only half-way through. If you were stressing last week at the bottom, use this rally to relance your risk, as we did. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NYrwVgUNvg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #PortfolioRebalancing #RebalancingRisk #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/9/23) Markets continue their winning ways, elongating a string of positive closes; Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak today: What effect will his words have on Bonds? Why do the debt and deficits matter so much now? (Keep in mind the narrative...) Have financial conditions eased or reversed? What will the Fed do next? Meanwhile, Markets to test resistance at 100-DMA. How Robinhood lost its luster, and why there should be commissions on all trades (nothing is free). Meanwhile, DraftKings has kept up: What's the difference between gambling on sports vs stocks? Did Robinhood user ever really know what they were doing? The mistake of assigning value to stock price. The Fed's 'Wait & See' approach will be further revealed in Jerome Powell's speech today. Changing the face of finance with an ever-present Fed; Goldman's Forecast doesn't bear up under scrutiny: Are economists making the same mistake all over again? How to forecast a recession vs 'soft-landing;' we WILL have a recession: The only question is the timing. SEG-1: Why Do Debts & Deficits Matter Now? (when they didn't before)? SEG-2: The Demise of Robinhood & "Free" Trading SEG-3: The Fed's 'Wait-and-See' Approach Effect on Bonds SEG-4: How to Forecast Recession Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXoGYSewzLE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa2FoDMtCDI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's "Before the Bell" edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7rpSbyLfl4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2020-vs-2023-are-economists-making-the-same-mistake/ "Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/ "Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #JeromePowell #FederalDeficit #FederalReserve #Robinhood #DraftKings #InterestRates #Recession #SoftLanding #BondMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/9/23) Markets added another positive day to their string of winning results, the longest since 2021. Markets have clearly broken the 50-DMA, and are now testing the 100-DMA. Markets are at the top of the downtrend channel, but are also overbought at this point, which suggests we should see a bit of a correction in the near term. We want to see the market hold around the 4,300 level so it can set up for a rally by the end of the year. Earnings seaons continues with 'okay' results, but majority of earnings growth still comes from the Magnificent 7 large-cap companies. Economic data is showing some signs of weakness, but nothing terrible. Money managers will be playing catch-up ahad of year's end, creating a bit of lift to markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa2FoDMtCDI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MutualFund #FundDistribution #SantaClausRally #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/8/23) Markets have strung together the longest series of back-to-back gains since 2021: Expect a pullback next. Credit Card and Auto Loan delinquencies are on the rise. Everything is more expensive. The strong rally in the dollar: watch for a pullback and effects on oil prices. A discussion of the proper and improper use of a 401k (or any retirement funds!) Millennials' 'soft-saving' trend is no savings at all. Alternatives to pillaging your retirement funds. Why the FIRE Movement is going up in flames; Has Warren Buffett really 'done more' to education investors? Being careful of short-term narratives. Markets' longest string of back-to-back gains since 2021; why we still own Apple, just not as much of it; getting paid on YouTube; is a 'soft-landing' really possible? SEG-1: Expecting a Market Pullback SEG-2: Why You Should Not Take a Loan from Your 401k SEG-3: The FIRE Movement Goes Up in Flames SEG-4: Is a 'Soft-landing' Really Possible? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7rpSbyLfl4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "We're Now Trapped Between the 100- & 200-DMA," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is This the End of the Bond Bear Market?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LanrwUVR4s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/ "Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #Delinquencies #401kLoan FIREmovement #Apple #EmploymentReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Recession #SoftLanding #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/8/23) Markets tested the 50-DMA and bounced off of it to rally Tuesday. We're now "trapped" between the 50- and 100-DMA, so there's risk to the upside with markets having gone very far, very quickly. There is likely more upside for markets over the next couple of weeks...but...heading into next week, we'll enter that pre-Thanksgiving period which tends to be weak. So expect some consolidation, even a bit of a pullback to take out the 50-DMA. After Thanksgiving, expect markets to do a little better, heading into December. Also in December, mutual funds have to make their distributions, causing some seasonal weakness. Moving into the end of December and into 2024 is when the typical Santa Claus Rally can occur. We're thinking that ending the year at around 4,500 is not out of the question. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MutualFund #FundDistribution #SantaClausRally #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/7/23) How did WeWork go from $47-B to Bankruptcy? Beware the days' 'narrative of the moment' in interest rates, AI. Market performance ahead, pre- and post-Thanksgiving. Is the Bond Bear market dead or just hibernating? Are bon yields doing the Fed's dirty work now? WeWork is a symptom. Yields are a function of debt and economic growth = Bond Math. Don't be distracted by the media. Why the Fed wants higher rates; the risk of recession in 2024: It will not be THE economic event of the year, thanks to existing liquidity and minimum layoffs. Balancing the possibilities vs the probabilities. A brief market preview; reading the emails: Understanding the fundamentals. Why we trimmed Apple: They're not growing revenue. What is a Moving Average and what does it do? Takes the volatility out of pricing. Looking at Bollinger Bands; investor psychology: You cannot make money if you're bearish all the time. Investors need optimism. SEG-1: WeWork is Now WeBroke SEG-2: Is This the End of the Bond Bear Market? SEG-3: Why a 2024 Recession Will Not Be THE Big Financial Event SEG-4: Why We Trimmed Apple Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LanrwUVR4s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest Today?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg-NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joE1n-XJZYY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/ "Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #BondMarket #WeWoke #Apple #EmploymentReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BlackFriday #ConsumerConfidence #BankFailure #Recession #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/7/23) Markets closed above the 50-DMA Monday. A retest of support today won't be surprising. Market performance going into Thanksgiving tends to be a bit sloppy; after Thanksgiving and Black Friday, markets tend to reassess and typically have a rally in the last week of November and first week of December. What we need now to set a good tone for the end of the year is a breakout of the current negative tend channel. There remains a risk to the downside, even though no specific, negative catalyst for markets has been identified. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg-NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #200DMA #Apple #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/6/23) Friday's employment report was weaker than expected, as expected; there's always no recession in sight...until it is. How long will it take for the lag effect to appear? Black Friday preview; market rallied to 6% after previous week of disappointment. Markets ran through resistance, and are now over bought; looking at Bonds' tough year. The Fed says yields are doing its work; there's no safe place to hide. Consumer confidence is key, and creates inflation; the trap the Fed is now in. Citizen Bank failure; higher interest rates are begining to take a toll. Why the FIRE movement is dead; the problem with retiring too early: Loss of skill; "Soft Saving" is now in: More relaxed attitude about retirement and savings, living in the moment. Berkshire Hathaway Quarterly report reveals hoardes of cash: Why you cannot invest like Warren Buffett, but watch what he doeds with cash: Buying Treasuries. We're still dealing with effects of financial stimulus in the system. SEG-1: Employment Report Weaker Than Expected...as expected SEG-2: No Safe Place to Hide? SEG-3: Higher Rates Are Beginning to Take a Toll SEG-4: Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joE1n-XJZYY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can the Market Rally Continue? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ0J54xPu9Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What If Your Financial Plan Fails?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZIezlwntXc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EmploymentReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BlackFriday #ConsumerConfidence #BankFailure #Recession #BerkshireHathaway #WareenBuffett #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/6/23) Markets rallied nicely last week, adding 6% to the S&P after the prior week's panic over market declines. Markets ran right through all the resistance levels that were of concern. Markets are now overbought on a short-term basis. You can expect a little consolidation from this point. If we can hold the 20-DMA, and not retest the 50-DMA, that would be very bullish, but a bit of a pull back here would not be surprising. Bonds have had a tough year this year and expect a rally in yields to about 4.7% before sliding back downward. If we see more weak economic data, expect yields to drop still lower, and lower yields are a problem for the Fed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ0J54xPu9Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #200DMA #BondYields #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/2/23) Childrens' birthdays & the circle of life; after three good days of rally, markets are close to triggering a buy signal; what markets need is to surpass and maintain levels at 200-DMA. Still to come: ADP & Jobs reports, which do not jive. The run up in Gold (thanks, Hamas) and the coming spin down in BitCoin: Take profits now. Earnings preview, and a review of Jerome Powell's non-news: Holding rates firm, with the off-chance of another rate hike. Why the Fed cannot say when rates will come down; debt vs economic growth: Issuing debt to pay off det: Is this a good idea? Not all issuance results in spending. Looking for clues of consumer pullback: Target groceries and Eli Lilly COVID sales (Zero). Was exceptional growth in the third quarter a fluke? SEG-1: What Markets Need Now SEG-2: Earnings Preview, Fed Review SEG-3: Issuing Debt to Pay off Debt SEG-4: Was Q3 Growth an Anomaly? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz3SbetpmLg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Markets Must Achieve This Week" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpEZTBQs9p4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "It's Fed Day" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJJgkhVOG94&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=119s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Why Target Date Funds Fail Investors: A $3 Trillion Delusion" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-target-date-funds-fail-investors-a-3-trillion-delusion/ "Possibilities Versus Probabilities" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Q3Earnings #ConsumerSpending #EconomicData #Gold #BitCoin #IsraeliWar #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/2/23) Markets have enjoyed three days' rally, and nare now faced with the challenge of overtaking and maintaining above the 200-DMA. Markets are not yet overbought, and futures are positive following Wednesday's (11/1) Fed announcment to not hike rates (for now). This will be critical for stopping short term downward pressure on the markets. Holding at that level will also trigger a MACD Buy-signal. Tomorrow's Jobs Report could pose a threat, if the number shows high levels of employment, stokign fears of higher inflation, and a responsive interest rate hike by the Fed next month. Gold has had a big run because of what's happening in the Middle East. Look for Gold to flip back to a sell signal soon. Bond yields fell sharply yesterday following Jerome Powell's presser, at which he pretty much said, 'The Fed is done.' BitCoin has also had a nice run in conjuntion with the Israeli conflict; it's extremely over bought in a very short term, which is not sustainable. MIght be wise to reduce exposure and take profits. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpEZTBQs9p4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/8216958366572/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #200DMA #Gold #Bitcoin #BondYields #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/1/23) It's Fed Day: Will Jerome Powell hold firm in statements made last week, and refrain from raising interest rates, while retaining the possibility of one more hike? The Great Data Divergence: The real economy is weaker than employment and inflation data would infer. Commission Collusion in Real Estate; setting up for EOY rally on Wall St.; three consecutive negative months = good buying opportunity. Economic preview; what the Fed already knows. Forward earnings estimates for Q4 are already sliding; Fast Food is no longer cheap; the Ratliff's Halloween Candy tax; what makes the market correction so confusing. Journalism: Simplify & exaggerate; no record market high since January 2021; how money works vs index; signs of pending recession: increase in Junk Yields (trailing data); nothing but bad news on TV. WeWork bankruptcy: the fundamental flaw; Lingering Inflation: Keeping data in line with reality; why the Fed doesn't want deflation/recession; attitudes are sour, and leading indicators suggest recession next year. The problem with Data; The lag effect & revisions. SEG-1: Fed Day Preview: Divergence of Data SEG-2: What the Fed Already Knows SEG-3: What's Making the Markets so Confusing? SEG-4: Lingering Inflation: Keeping Data In Line with Reality Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJJgkhVOG94&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=107s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Due for a Rally" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06cUp7UoumQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "5% to 10% Correction is Expected in Markets" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68Jaa6Rq-eI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Possibilities Versus Probabilities" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #Recession #InterestRates #Q3Earnings #ConsumerSpending #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/1/23) Markets have had three months of negative returns, which is important to note as we move into the last couple of months of the year. This suggests a stronger rally into the end of the year: Today marks the start of that window for stock buybacks; November also contains much seasonal purchasing for equities, as managers chase performance; there is also a very large short position against equities. So, if the market begins to rally, those shorts will have to be covered, adding additional fuel to the market. On a technical basis, there are a large number of stocks trading below their 50-DMA, which coincides with stock market bottoms or deep corrections. We're at that level where you normally get a bounce in the markets. Also, the advent of three consecutive months of negative performance does not happen very often (the last time we saw this was during the pandemic in 2020; that presented an excellent buying opportunity.) Negative sentiment and too many people looking for "the world to end" is a great set up for a reflexive rally. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06cUp7UoumQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/8216958366572/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #200DMA #YearEndRally #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/31/23) Halloween Traditions & the FOMC Meeting starts today: It's not likely the Fed will raise rates; what happens when stock prices fall? Expectations are for the Fed to hold firm until Summer, and then will have to cut rates. Markets rallied 1% Monday; will there be follow-through to confirm the movement? Resistance now at 200-DMA/4,250. "I told you so in June:" 5% to 10% correction expected in markets, and investors become bearish; the importance of perspective in investing: Corrections are a necessary factor (Possibilities vs Probabilities). How to build wealth: Save money. Looking at the Bell Curve of possibilities, when will this all be over? When the Fed cuts rates; the possibility of WW-III (review: "Band of Brothers") Caterpillar reports earnings, benefits from stimulus funding for construction projects: 'What will you do for me next?' What will be the next driver for expansion/sales at CAT? Pfizer; Getting bitten by weaker COVID sales; what will they come up with next to boost sales? Bud Light/AB alliance w UFC; Yum brands; Is Q3 really the "earnings trough?" SEG-1: Will the Fed Hold Rates Firm Until Summer? SEG-2: I Told You So in June SEG-3: Making Mistakes w Blanket Decisions SEG-4: Earnings Preview Round-up Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68Jaa6Rq-eI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Monday Market Rally: Was It Trick or Treat?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkDuLs1l_CU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wrapping Up October" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkelCMkbVOc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Possibilities Versus Probabilities" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #Recession #InterestRates #Q3Earnings #ConsumerSpending #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/31/23) Markets were deeply oversold Monday, and had a very nice rally: Was it a trick or a treat? Markets will need to confirm over the next few days whether or not its rise is for real, and that the recent sell-off is over. The problem is running into resistance at the 200-DMA, at about 4,230, which markets broke last week. That will also coincide with the 20-DMA as it intersects with the 200-DMA. If markets can get above the 200-DMA, it will suggest the year-end rally is intact. If so, the 4,250 region will be a likely level to reduce risk and raise some cash (that will also be the top of the downtrend channel that's been building over the last couple of months.) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkDuLs1l_CU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/8216958366572/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #200DMA #YearEndRally #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/30/23) Pre-Halloween & Candy Inflation, Pre-Fed Meeting; SoFi Banjk tightening lending restrictions; forecasts for negative Q4 growth; small businesses now having difficulty getting cash/loans. Markets took out support at 200-DMA; look for a reflexive rally, likely following this week's Fed meeting. Texas' Seasons & Mrs. Roberts' blankets; earnings season, Microsoft vs Google: Companies being penalized for slightest flaws; stock have been priced for perfection. Businesses can no longer pass along input costs, reducing margins; will consumer's slow spending? Banks tightening credit, beginning the downward spiral from effects of 11 rate hikes. The fiscal feedback loop; companies are starting to see the effects of higher interest rates on consumers. There is false security in this round of quarterly reporting: Companies are banking on no recession; always "great" economic data just before recession; did not know it until months after recession; (What is 'economic activity/GDP?') Paying more in interest rates detracts from consumer spending; consumer debt is worsening. Is it any coincidence the next FOMC meeting commences on Halloween? Will it be Trick or Treat from Jerome Powell? Is the Fed always wrong? Transitory inflation higher for longer? Crddit Card rates are +4% since 2022. The effective Fed rate is not +6%. A resilient economy threatens work to reduce inflation; why the Fed wants higher rates to cool spending and economic growth. This will also slow earnings growth. SEG-1: Forecasting Negative Q4 Growth? SEG-2: Will the Consumer Slow Down? SEG-3: The False Security in Q3 Reports SEG-4: Trick or Treat from Jerome Powell? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkelCMkbVOc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Over-sold Markets are Under Pressure" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLg0zUIQNxo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Reaching Your Hurdle Rate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBDVtnTDAbI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #Recession #InterestRates #ConsumerSpending #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

10/30/23) Markets took out support at the 200-DMA last week, confirming the initial break. This brings markets back to a cluster of support from May of this year. As of Friday, we'd completed a 10% market correciton we forecast back in the summer. There's nothing really bearish here, just markets gyrating the way markets do. Don't expect much out of markets until after this week's Fed Meeting. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLg0zUIQNxo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketPressure #MarketCorrection #200DMA #FOMCMeeting #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/27/23) Market Futures & Fed Meeting preview; concensus is no rate hike in November, but possible in December. Dealing w Halloween candy inflation, controlling risk by utilizing bonds; planning to achieve your "hurdle rate." Planning for when you can retire; when do investment dollar reach "critical mass?" How to restructure assets for tax advantages. Roth Conversions: Why they're not for everyone. What is the best-timing for taking Social Security? How to take advantage of higher interest rates; the reinvestment risks in short-term treasuries: What happens when rates come back down? Dealing with Year of Death RMD's. SEG-1: Market & Fed Meeting Preview Seg-2: Halloween Candy Inflation; Making Managing Risk a Priority SEG-3: Planning for When You Can Retire SEG-4: What's the Best Timing for Taking Social Security? Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors, Jon Penn, CFP, & Jonathan McCarty, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBDVtnTDAbI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Confirm the Break of the 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKXG1bfgj20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Real Rates Drive Stock Prices" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC5qe2kFcuI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=19s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Real Rates Drive Stock Prices" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/real-rates-drive-stock-prices/ "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #HurdleRate #ManagingRisk #FederalReserve #InterestRates #SocialSecurity #ConsumerSpending #Employment #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/26/23) Q3 GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in the 3rd Quarter: It's not uncommon to see an economic uptick in economic activity prior to a recession; however, not all is rosy: bankruptcies are surging. Wednesday was not a pretty day in markets, with confirmation of a break of support at the 200-DMA. Market expectations for GDP and the effects of inflation; what are the ramifications? The regional bank problem was a problem for all banks. Banks matter because we are a credit-driven economy. Lag effects generally take 5 to 9 quarters to emerge. A Zero-deficit = negative GDP. Government debt and deficits reduce economic growth. Market correction is underway, as predicted, and there is concern for markets for 2023. How best to reposition portfolios; what earnings are telling us. Bond vs stocks, Value vs Growth stocks next year? The Fed is predicted to do nothing at next week's meeting; high interest rates are doing the Fed's work. Bill Gross: Economic deterioration is worse than people think; what are economists seeing? Pay attention to more recent data, like credit card spending and jobless claims. The problem with inflation is how it is measured. SEG-1: Q3 GDP Preview SEG-2: Why Banks Matter; A Credit-driven Economy SEG-3: What Corporate Earnings are Telling Us SEG-4: Previewing Powell Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC5qe2kFcuI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=19s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Confirm the Break of the 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKXG1bfgj20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Gloom & Doom Scenarios Correct?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkkkIJacQWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Real Rates Drive Stock Prices" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/real-rates-drive-stock-prices/ "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #InterestRates #FederalReserve #ConsumerSpending #Employment #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/26/23) Markets confirmed the break of the 200-DMA by sliding through that level on Wednesday. The next level of support will be at the 4,100 mark, which is 50% of the rally from October 2022. (This is normal within the context of a correction.) Markets are working within a defined downtrend channel, which will also coincide with support at 4,100. Markets are over-sold, short term; the MACD Sell-signal is back in place at a low level. So most likely, the down side, near term, is fairly limited. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKXG1bfgj20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketWeakness #MarketRisk #200DMA #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/25/23) Google's Earnings Report & Cloud Revenue weakness dampen markets' mood; there remains a dichotomy between the performance of the Mega-cap & and the rest of the market, particularly in mid- and small-caps. If the economy is "doing so well," why aren't these businesses? Markets are hanging on after breaking support at 200-DMA; what's important is how we end the week. Measuring the Data in Retail Sales: Consumers are spending more cash, but buying the same or less quantities of goods. Jobs gains are in low-wage positions; we're "jostle-ating." Are doom & gloom scenarios correct? A look at the Bell Curve; assigning the probabilities to the possibilities; Analyzing the data: How we do what we doo; still al lot of Program dollars floating around the system. The importance of balancing your views with opposing opinions; the most-dire consequences often do not happen. Why Jerome Powell changed his opinion. SEG-1: Dichotomy in the Mega-cap 7 SEG-2: Measuring the Data in Retail Sales SEG-3: Doom & Gloom: Assigning the Probabilities to Possibilities SEG-4: Analyzing the Data: How We Do What We Do Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkkkIJacQWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets are Hanging On..." is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW1d0lV2tkQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Pain Trade Higher?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOs1ro97dXY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Real Rates Drive Stock Prices" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/real-rates-drive-stock-prices/ "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #MegaCap7 #Microsoft #Google #FederalReserve #ConsumerSpending #Employment #Manufacturing #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/25/23) Markets are hanging on by fingernails follwoing the break of the 200-DMA; this is why you have to be careful after the initial break. Markets look to open weaker this morning because of Google's earnings yesterday. Markets are still wrestling (wrassling?) with support at the 200-DMA. What's important is where we end the week. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW1d0lV2tkQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketWeakness #MarketRisk #200DMA #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/24/23) Microsoft & Google report earnings today, and by next week 80% of the S&P will have checked-in w Quarterly results; the Fed enters blackout period before the next FOMC meeting, as corporate buyback window open; have yields reached their terminal peak? Markets break 200-DMA, but be cautious until confirmed. Where's the risk; why do prices go lower: Buyers unwilling to buy at a given price (this is the flaw in passive investing theory). The long stretch of downward pressure on stock, and why to expect higher prices as EOY draws nearer. What Retail Sales figures aren't telling us (lagging indicator) and the pre-Recession warning in employment numbers: growth is not in areas of high-paying jobs. The psychology of consumer spending. An earnings preview: high beat-ratio on lowered estimates. Economic Data preview: No strong results in numbers; not jiving with other economic indicators: Why aren't manufacturing numbers booming? Digging past the headlines; the importance of investor psychology. SEG-1: Earnings Season Continues: A Primer SEG-2: Where's the Risk? SEG-3: What Retail Sales Don't Tell Us SEG-4: When the Data Doesn't Jive Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOs1ro97dXY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Time to Reduce Risk?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTfjlNVWpfY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujhW-HlRJGaPa9tDN_GthEg&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Year-End Rally in Jeopardy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVeI0ISM7LE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade-is-higher-into-year-end/ "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #Microsoft #Google #FederalReserve #StockBuyBacks #ConsumerSpending #Employment #Manufacturing #EconomicData #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/23/23) Markets are wrapping up October with seasonal weakness, as the Israel War continues and rates remain high, weighing on sentiment. There's a Fed meeting next week, as well. Markets are working within a corrective phase. A short story about cooking w Mrs. Roberts; What Jerome Powell had to say last, and what's in store for next week's Fed meeting; Higher rates on 10-yr Treasuries are doing the Fed's dirty work: the trend for inflation is lower, and there have been very different changes in Fed narratives. All else is not equal: addressing the myths of "budget deficits" (with lots of charts). THings have never been this bad before: Quotes and notes from 1957 compared to now. Things may be dire, but we will survive: have to have Hope. SEG-1: How the Year-end Rally Could Be in Jeopardy SEG-2: Parsing Powell's Dovish Message SEG-3: All Else is Not Equal SEG-4: Geopolitics & Domestic Policies: Never This Bad Before? Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVeI0ISM7LE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Current Market Weakness is Normal...but..." is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzRKHQoCPDU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The RMD Nightmare on Elm Street" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd-GMs5PHI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #Treasuries #IsraelWar #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/23/23) Markets are working within that Summer weakness correctional phase, quite normal for October of a pre-election year. Weakness typically runs through the month of October, with stronger performance in November & December. Markets are set to open lower this morning, flirting with the 200-DMA. Take care not to make the common mistake of making a move before the break in the moving average has been confirmed. The confirmed break is your signal to sell to reduce risk in your portfolio. It is not uncommon to see markets break, and then turn right back around an rally higher. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzRKHQoCPDU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketWeakness #PreElectionYear #OctoberWeakness #MovingAverages #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/20/23) A bit of flavored coffee commentary to launch the show, 10-yr Treasuries hit 5%, and investor psychology hits the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says inflation is still too high; the MIddle East War is going to get worse. We're in The Fourth Turning, and interest rates will be raised again in 2024. Mini-book review: "The Fourth Turning" and "Constellations." The issue of entitlement vs the feeling that comes from doing good for others. The RMD landmine; the IRS can't even define charitable contributions consistently; the puzzle of inherited non-spousal IRA's. Bond Yields cannot remain at these levels forever. (Fun w candy corn pumpkins) Why does no one want to buy long-duration bonds? Why would the Fed lower rates? It's a good time to build a bond portfolio. Retirement realities and the next Candid Coffee preview; Who own's Brach's Candy (Ferrara Candies)? Roth Inherited IRA's; market preview; Middle East War commentary: It's gonna get worse. SEG-1: Coffee Commentary & 10-Yr. Treasuries SEG-2: The Fourth Turning review; RMD Nightmares SEG-3: Good Times for Building Bond Portfolios SEG-4: Roth Inherited-IRA's & Middle East War Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jon Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd-GMs5PHI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Traders Trapped?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Will Powell Say Next?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKF0Ikh9MWk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #Treasuries #RMD #BondYields #TheFourthTurning #MiddleEastWar #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/19/23) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is on the prowl this week: Will it be 'higher for long,' more rate hikes, or have higher interest rates done enough? Those are the big questions to be answered this afternoon. Markets sold off on Wednesday; Netflix & Abbott reported strong earnings (on lowered estimates!) but the Israeli War and Oil Price performance trapped investors between the two (oil prices are not spiking due to War. Interest rate momentum and Fed strategies' impact on markets; we're a leveraged society affected by rates. Who is the Fed protecting now? The flaw in a WSJ story about student loan repayments and Fed commentary on its effects on economy: We run the math. Bond Math and Treasuries; Yield and Price are functions of duration; duration is linear. When investor psychology becomes important; poking holes in the narrative. SEG-1: Markets Sell Off Amid Turbulence SEG-2: Who is the Fed Protecting now? SEG-3: Student Loan Payments, The Fed, & Basic Math SEG-4: Poking Holes in the Narrative Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKF0Ikh9MWk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Traders Trapped?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is 'The Crash of a Lifetime' Coming?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #StudentLoanDebt #BondMath #FedMath #Treasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/19/23) Markets traded off the 20-DMA, with traders trapped in a narrowing price compression range between support on the 200-DMA at 4,020 and resistance at about the 4,500 level. Earnings are supporting markets are supported on one side, interest rate concerns and War in the Middle East are weighing on markets from the other side. We're anticipating additional support for markets in November when stock buy backs can resume, and, provided the mega-cap companies have good things to say over the next couple of weeks, their earnings reports and forward guidance should also prove to buoy markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #MiddleEastWar #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/18/23) Retail Sales doubled in September...but, on non-retail store sales; non-seasonally adjusted sales were acutally down 5%. All nuymbers are subject to revision. This is how we formulate government economic policy, on backwards-looking, lagging data. Markets started lower in Tuesday, but rallied before the close to end essentially unchanged on the day. There's not much concern in earnings reports. Harry Dent's dire predictions of an 80% drop in the markets next year. Are we in The Fourth Turning (Neil Howe)? What is the risk of correction? Bond Traders betting on treasuries are expecting dazzling returns with little risk. We take a look at historic data and charts. Gotta have charts. SEG-1: Retail Sales Double on Non-Retail Sales SEG-2: Harry Dent's Crash of a Lifetime SEG-3: Drafting Mrs. Roberts, & Correction Risks SEG-4: Bond Math & Charts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKLpCph-nvI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Late-day Buying Sustains Markets" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFyAmfTFjJg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCrash #HarryDent #MarketCorrection #RetailSales #EconomicRecession #BondMath #Treasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/18/23) Markets opened lower Tuesday, but rallied before the close to end up essentially flat for the day. This is the pattern now o flate day buying as institutions come into the market to pick up positions on their portfolios. That's a good thing for markets, at least in the near-term. As November approaches, a month with some of the largest inflows, market drivers will become less dependant upon corporate earnings. Markets continue to trade above the 20-DMA, forming yet another wedge of price compression for now. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFyAmfTFjJg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/17/23) Earnings Season is in full swing, with Big Banks reporting this week. More interesting than earnings results will be forward outlooks. The unknown is the unintended consequences of COVID-era government funding that has yet to be spent: Those funds could prevent a recession, and even provide the mythical "soft landing" or NO landing the Fed would like to see. Meanwhile, markets continue to consolidate, not going anywhere in a hurry. Three reasons investors under-perform: The Law of Unintended Consequences. A look at the Valuation to Volatility Ratio, and exceptions to the rule. Are consumers still committing "revenge spending" in a post-pandemic economy? Earnings results will ultimately depend upon employment. The slide to 2% inflation doesn't mean prices will come down; the risk of predictions. SEG-1: Why Forward Guidance Matters More than Earnings SEG-2: The Law of Unintended Consequences SEG-3: Valuations, Volatility, and Thomas the Train SEG-4: Revenge Spending & Corporate Earnings Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Fear & Loathing on Wall Street" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/17/23) Markets bounced right off the 20-DMA on Monday; the 50- and 200-DMA are the next cluster of resistance markets must move through in order to achieve a higher level by the end of the year. Markets are still compressing between two levels of resistance and support, and remain concerned about what's happening overseas. As earnings season progresses, however, that will more and more drive markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsERvxtFfMo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) The Israel & Ukraine wars are creating international fear, while domestically, US consumer sentiment is sinking as economic realities of higher interest rates and student loan payments resume. Big Banks' earnings season beginning this week; generally, earnings are down about 3% when Tech and Energy are not included; market futures are flat this morning after declining performance last Thursday and Friday; year-end repositioning is getting underway; the impact of geo-political outlooks; economic reports & sampling methodology; the smaller the sample, the less-reliable the results. ADP Employment Report vs BLS shows large divergences: Which one is correct? WW3: possible, but how probable? Will there or Won't there be a recession? Target vs Dollar General: Consumer spending stratified; the bottom 80% of consumers are struggling. what are the smartest guys in the room saying? The risk of following the analysts: What if they're wrong? Navigating markets w conflicting data; the fallacy of passive investing. What happens when sellers aren't willing to sell...until prices go up. What makes markets work. Too fearful = near the bottom; too greedy = near the top. Dichotomies of Stapes vs Discretionary, algorithm-driven markets; headlines vs market positioning. SEG-1: Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: Israel, Ukraine, & Domestic Economics SEG-2: The Impact of Geopolitical Outlooks SEG-3: Recession: Will there or won't there? SEG-4: The Difficulty of Navigating Markets w Conflicting Data Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Life Gets In the Way of Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) Markets ended their two-week rally, falling on Thursday and Friday and running right into the convergence of the 50- and 100-DMA's and came to rest atop the 200-DMA. Market futures are flat this morning, interest rates are rising, and the Dow is elevated, thanks to energy stocks' response to the war in Israel. It is entirely possible markets could re-test the 200-DMA today, as markets pull-back. That would set markets up for yet another rally as we get into November/December. While markets are doing what they're doing, pay attention to a downtrend channel. There's nothing of particular note to be concerned about; the MACD Buy-signal is in place against a backdrop of negative positioning currently. Many managers are off-sides and under-weight in stocks, and their adjustments before year-end will affect market dynamics heading into the final months of the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/13/23) The value of delayed gratification is observed in the orgy of early holiday decorations and Rich's self-control involving candy corn math; a discussion of CPI, inflation, and sticky prices. Breakfast cereal inflation, candy corn pumpkins, and recovering from financial shocks in Retirement: Rethinking allocations. Interest rates and Bond pricing; safe havens: Where are all the crypto fans now? The DAD Retirement Plan (and living inside Lance's head); more than half of retirees are working in retirement. Re-defining Retirement & the value of older workers. Working longer is not a death-sentence. Social Security COLA +3.4% vs Medicare premium increase = +6%. 9 surprises in Retirement: Taxes, healthcare expenses, and more. SEG-1: Holiday's, Candy Corn Math, & Delayed Gratification SEG-2: Breakfast Cereal & Candy Corn Math; Recovering from Financial Shock in Retirement SEG-3: The DAD Retirement Plan (re-defining Retirement) SEG-4: 9 Surprises in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Has the Fed Shifted Tone?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Janet Yellen Suggests Much Lower For Much Longer https://realinvestmentadvice.com/janet-yellen-suggests-much-lower-for-much-longer/ "Bond Valuations Are Cheap" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #Healthcare #SocialSecurity #PPI #CPI #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/12/23) Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes: Anticipating today's CPI report (clocking-in at a hotter-than-expected .4%); the sharp changes in oil prices and interest rates; CPI Preview: The Monthly Moment. PPI hotter than expected .3%; Fed minutes reveal nothing new. The need for EOY performance: Career preservation for managers. Changes in financial tightening and oil prices are a result in shifts in Fed tone. Markets are moving into seasonally strong period of the year. Falce narrative: No one wants our debt. Why China has to use the dollar. SEG-1: Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes SEG-2: The Subtle Shift in Fed Tone SEG-3: Markets Move Into Seasonally strong Period of the Year SEG-4: Birkenstocks: Trend or Fad? Why Yields Are Going Up Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Israel Conflict Ignites Flight to Safety" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Healthcare #ObamaCare #IsraelWar #FederalReserve #PPI #CPI #Inflation #OilPrices #Markets #Money #Investing