The Real Investment Show Podcast

(10/23/23) Markets are wrapping up October with seasonal weakness, as the Israel War continues and rates remain high, weighing on sentiment. There's a Fed meeting next week, as well. Markets are working within a corrective phase. A short story about cooking w Mrs. Roberts; What Jerome Powell had to say last, and what's in store for next week's Fed meeting; Higher rates on 10-yr Treasuries are doing the Fed's dirty work: the trend for inflation is lower, and there have been very different changes in Fed narratives. All else is not equal: addressing the myths of "budget deficits" (with lots of charts). THings have never been this bad before: Quotes and notes from 1957 compared to now. Things may be dire, but we will survive: have to have Hope. SEG-1: How the Year-end Rally Could Be in Jeopardy SEG-2: Parsing Powell's Dovish Message SEG-3: All Else is Not Equal SEG-4: Geopolitics & Domestic Policies: Never This Bad Before? Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVeI0ISM7LE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Current Market Weakness is Normal...but..." is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzRKHQoCPDU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The RMD Nightmare on Elm Street" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd-GMs5PHI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Surging Deficits – The Bear's New Meme" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #Treasuries #IsraelWar #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/23/23) Markets are working within that Summer weakness correctional phase, quite normal for October of a pre-election year. Weakness typically runs through the month of October, with stronger performance in November & December. Markets are set to open lower this morning, flirting with the 200-DMA. Take care not to make the common mistake of making a move before the break in the moving average has been confirmed. The confirmed break is your signal to sell to reduce risk in your portfolio. It is not uncommon to see markets break, and then turn right back around an rally higher. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzRKHQoCPDU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketWeakness #PreElectionYear #OctoberWeakness #MovingAverages #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/20/23) A bit of flavored coffee commentary to launch the show, 10-yr Treasuries hit 5%, and investor psychology hits the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says inflation is still too high; the MIddle East War is going to get worse. We're in The Fourth Turning, and interest rates will be raised again in 2024. Mini-book review: "The Fourth Turning" and "Constellations." The issue of entitlement vs the feeling that comes from doing good for others. The RMD landmine; the IRS can't even define charitable contributions consistently; the puzzle of inherited non-spousal IRA's. Bond Yields cannot remain at these levels forever. (Fun w candy corn pumpkins) Why does no one want to buy long-duration bonds? Why would the Fed lower rates? It's a good time to build a bond portfolio. Retirement realities and the next Candid Coffee preview; Who own's Brach's Candy (Ferrara Candies)? Roth Inherited IRA's; market preview; Middle East War commentary: It's gonna get worse. SEG-1: Coffee Commentary & 10-Yr. Treasuries SEG-2: The Fourth Turning review; RMD Nightmares SEG-3: Good Times for Building Bond Portfolios SEG-4: Roth Inherited-IRA's & Middle East War Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jon Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd-GMs5PHI8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Traders Trapped?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Will Powell Say Next?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKF0Ikh9MWk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #Treasuries #RMD #BondYields #TheFourthTurning #MiddleEastWar #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/19/23) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is on the prowl this week: Will it be 'higher for long,' more rate hikes, or have higher interest rates done enough? Those are the big questions to be answered this afternoon. Markets sold off on Wednesday; Netflix & Abbott reported strong earnings (on lowered estimates!) but the Israeli War and Oil Price performance trapped investors between the two (oil prices are not spiking due to War. Interest rate momentum and Fed strategies' impact on markets; we're a leveraged society affected by rates. Who is the Fed protecting now? The flaw in a WSJ story about student loan repayments and Fed commentary on its effects on economy: We run the math. Bond Math and Treasuries; Yield and Price are functions of duration; duration is linear. When investor psychology becomes important; poking holes in the narrative. SEG-1: Markets Sell Off Amid Turbulence SEG-2: Who is the Fed Protecting now? SEG-3: Student Loan Payments, The Fed, & Basic Math SEG-4: Poking Holes in the Narrative Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKF0Ikh9MWk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Traders Trapped?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is 'The Crash of a Lifetime' Coming?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #StudentLoanDebt #BondMath #FedMath #Treasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/19/23) Markets traded off the 20-DMA, with traders trapped in a narrowing price compression range between support on the 200-DMA at 4,020 and resistance at about the 4,500 level. Earnings are supporting markets are supported on one side, interest rate concerns and War in the Middle East are weighing on markets from the other side. We're anticipating additional support for markets in November when stock buy backs can resume, and, provided the mega-cap companies have good things to say over the next couple of weeks, their earnings reports and forward guidance should also prove to buoy markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CN-EZwjOIw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #MiddleEastWar #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/18/23) Retail Sales doubled in September...but, on non-retail store sales; non-seasonally adjusted sales were acutally down 5%. All nuymbers are subject to revision. This is how we formulate government economic policy, on backwards-looking, lagging data. Markets started lower in Tuesday, but rallied before the close to end essentially unchanged on the day. There's not much concern in earnings reports. Harry Dent's dire predictions of an 80% drop in the markets next year. Are we in The Fourth Turning (Neil Howe)? What is the risk of correction? Bond Traders betting on treasuries are expecting dazzling returns with little risk. We take a look at historic data and charts. Gotta have charts. SEG-1: Retail Sales Double on Non-Retail Sales SEG-2: Harry Dent's Crash of a Lifetime SEG-3: Drafting Mrs. Roberts, & Correction Risks SEG-4: Bond Math & Charts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKLpCph-nvI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Late-day Buying Sustains Markets" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFyAmfTFjJg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCrash #HarryDent #MarketCorrection #RetailSales #EconomicRecession #BondMath #Treasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/18/23) Markets opened lower Tuesday, but rallied before the close to end up essentially flat for the day. This is the pattern now o flate day buying as institutions come into the market to pick up positions on their portfolios. That's a good thing for markets, at least in the near-term. As November approaches, a month with some of the largest inflows, market drivers will become less dependant upon corporate earnings. Markets continue to trade above the 20-DMA, forming yet another wedge of price compression for now. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFyAmfTFjJg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/17/23) Earnings Season is in full swing, with Big Banks reporting this week. More interesting than earnings results will be forward outlooks. The unknown is the unintended consequences of COVID-era government funding that has yet to be spent: Those funds could prevent a recession, and even provide the mythical "soft landing" or NO landing the Fed would like to see. Meanwhile, markets continue to consolidate, not going anywhere in a hurry. Three reasons investors under-perform: The Law of Unintended Consequences. A look at the Valuation to Volatility Ratio, and exceptions to the rule. Are consumers still committing "revenge spending" in a post-pandemic economy? Earnings results will ultimately depend upon employment. The slide to 2% inflation doesn't mean prices will come down; the risk of predictions. SEG-1: Why Forward Guidance Matters More than Earnings SEG-2: The Law of Unintended Consequences SEG-3: Valuations, Volatility, and Thomas the Train SEG-4: Revenge Spending & Corporate Earnings Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruR9XJGuRFY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Fear & Loathing on Wall Street" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/17/23) Markets bounced right off the 20-DMA on Monday; the 50- and 200-DMA are the next cluster of resistance markets must move through in order to achieve a higher level by the end of the year. Markets are still compressing between two levels of resistance and support, and remain concerned about what's happening overseas. As earnings season progresses, however, that will more and more drive markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsERvxtFfMo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Consequences Are Always Unintended" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consequences-are-always-unintended/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCompression #EarningsSeason #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) The Israel & Ukraine wars are creating international fear, while domestically, US consumer sentiment is sinking as economic realities of higher interest rates and student loan payments resume. Big Banks' earnings season beginning this week; generally, earnings are down about 3% when Tech and Energy are not included; market futures are flat this morning after declining performance last Thursday and Friday; year-end repositioning is getting underway; the impact of geo-political outlooks; economic reports & sampling methodology; the smaller the sample, the less-reliable the results. ADP Employment Report vs BLS shows large divergences: Which one is correct? WW3: possible, but how probable? Will there or Won't there be a recession? Target vs Dollar General: Consumer spending stratified; the bottom 80% of consumers are struggling. what are the smartest guys in the room saying? The risk of following the analysts: What if they're wrong? Navigating markets w conflicting data; the fallacy of passive investing. What happens when sellers aren't willing to sell...until prices go up. What makes markets work. Too fearful = near the bottom; too greedy = near the top. Dichotomies of Stapes vs Discretionary, algorithm-driven markets; headlines vs market positioning. SEG-1: Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: Israel, Ukraine, & Domestic Economics SEG-2: The Impact of Geopolitical Outlooks SEG-3: Recession: Will there or won't there? SEG-4: The Difficulty of Navigating Markets w Conflicting Data Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Life Gets In the Way of Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/16/23) Markets ended their two-week rally, falling on Thursday and Friday and running right into the convergence of the 50- and 100-DMA's and came to rest atop the 200-DMA. Market futures are flat this morning, interest rates are rising, and the Dow is elevated, thanks to energy stocks' response to the war in Israel. It is entirely possible markets could re-test the 200-DMA today, as markets pull-back. That would set markets up for yet another rally as we get into November/December. While markets are doing what they're doing, pay attention to a downtrend channel. There's nothing of particular note to be concerned about; the MACD Buy-signal is in place against a backdrop of negative positioning currently. Many managers are off-sides and under-weight in stocks, and their adjustments before year-end will affect market dynamics heading into the final months of the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EndOfYear #PortfolioPositioning #Israel #EnergyPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/13/23) The value of delayed gratification is observed in the orgy of early holiday decorations and Rich's self-control involving candy corn math; a discussion of CPI, inflation, and sticky prices. Breakfast cereal inflation, candy corn pumpkins, and recovering from financial shocks in Retirement: Rethinking allocations. Interest rates and Bond pricing; safe havens: Where are all the crypto fans now? The DAD Retirement Plan (and living inside Lance's head); more than half of retirees are working in retirement. Re-defining Retirement & the value of older workers. Working longer is not a death-sentence. Social Security COLA +3.4% vs Medicare premium increase = +6%. 9 surprises in Retirement: Taxes, healthcare expenses, and more. SEG-1: Holiday's, Candy Corn Math, & Delayed Gratification SEG-2: Breakfast Cereal & Candy Corn Math; Recovering from Financial Shock in Retirement SEG-3: The DAD Retirement Plan (re-defining Retirement) SEG-4: 9 Surprises in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Has the Fed Shifted Tone?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Janet Yellen Suggests Much Lower For Much Longer https://realinvestmentadvice.com/janet-yellen-suggests-much-lower-for-much-longer/ "Bond Valuations Are Cheap" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #Healthcare #SocialSecurity #PPI #CPI #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/12/23) Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes: Anticipating today's CPI report (clocking-in at a hotter-than-expected .4%); the sharp changes in oil prices and interest rates; CPI Preview: The Monthly Moment. PPI hotter than expected .3%; Fed minutes reveal nothing new. The need for EOY performance: Career preservation for managers. Changes in financial tightening and oil prices are a result in shifts in Fed tone. Markets are moving into seasonally strong period of the year. Falce narrative: No one wants our debt. Why China has to use the dollar. SEG-1: Healthcare, Israel, & Fed Minutes SEG-2: The Subtle Shift in Fed Tone SEG-3: Markets Move Into Seasonally strong Period of the Year SEG-4: Birkenstocks: Trend or Fad? Why Yields Are Going Up Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olv5z7fy-c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Supply Build Causes Oil Price Drop" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Israel Conflict Ignites Flight to Safety" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Healthcare #ObamaCare #IsraelWar #FederalReserve #PPI #CPI #Inflation #OilPrices #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/12/23) Markets have essentially shunned the war in Israel this week, thus far. Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) did come in a bit hotter-than-expected, and the Fed Minutes released yesterday talked about higher-for-longer interest rates. All this data has become moot in the face of a sharp drop in Crude Oil prices following another big build in supplies. Interest Rates made another sharp move higher, pleasing the Fed in its quest to quell inflation. Interest Rates are testing the 20-DMA, the trend for rates since the higher acceleration. Lower rates will translate into higher Bond prices. With the markets now moving into the seasonally-strong period of the year, the MACD Buy signal has been triggered, suggesting higher stock prices moving forward. We're looking for a stronger rally in the index, despite resistance at 4,380. Other technical indicators also suggest this market wants to go higher. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhS6bpASeU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #InterestRates #CrudeOil #EnergyPrices #PPI #CPI #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) A brief look at the correlation between Israeli conflict and markets' flight to safety in US bonds. Markets could target 4,300; earnings season kicks off today. Potential Spam calls; the thing about Bonds: They're the simplest, yet least-understood investment. What interest rates mean; Sin stocks, ESG, & FAANG stocks: knowing the narrative. Stocks vs Bonds & relative valuations (with charts!) What Howard Marks said; Why interest rates and bond yields go up and down; psychology is a difficult factor in portfolio management. RFK, Jr. & The Perot Effect in the 2024 election; preview of our 2024 Economic Summit (January 27, 2024) A discussion on Mortgage-backed Securities in portfolios (you're basically buying someone's mortgage). How high rates create opportunities: mortgage refinancing. NAR letter to the Fed: "Lower rates so we can sell houses." SEG-1: Israeli Conflict Ingnites Flight to Safety in US Bonds SEG-2: Marital Affairs, Potential Spam, & The Thing About Bonds SEG-3: Sin Stocks, EGS, & Faang Stocks vs Bonds SEG-4: RFK, Jr., & The Perot Effect; Mortgage-baked Securities in Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1PA85k5RgM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Impact of the Israeli Conflict" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Disconnect Between Pre-retirement & Reality" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaEEQktBjcw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: Bond Valuations Are Cheap https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-valuations-are-cheap/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelConflict #FlightToSafety #USTreasuries #Bonds #MortgageBackedSecurities #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/10/23) What is happening overseas has not changed the context or tenor of the markets. Wall Street opened lower and then recovered, as markets assessed the global risks from the conflict in Israel. We're looking for a bit of a push higher past resistance this morning, looking for a challenge of the 20-DMA right out of the gate this morning. Look for trapped investors to sell as we near that next resistance level. Note: Earnings season begins anew today with Pepsi's report, followed by airlines and the big banks later in the week. Focus will shift from international intrigue to corporate earnings. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDaVn-TQ7M0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GlobalRisk #CorporateEarnings #Israel #Hammas #Markets #Money #Investing

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Sr. Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #PreRetirement #SocialSecurity #Medicare #PostPandemic #MoneyScript #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/6/23) Elvis Rosso: Yields, Yields, Yields; American's are spending like there's no tomorrow; why we recommend "The Millionaire Next Door;" How to vacation post-pandemic; camping in Buc-cee's. The downside of the lockdown; credit card rate survey; vacation spending vs money scripts: Money is emotional. Money needs shift when children arrive; talking to kids about money. Creating savings buckets for specific needs; noting the frugality of Gen-Z. Camping in Buc-cee's and ditching the boyfriend; Pre-retirement vs reality: more American's are concerned about impact of Inflation on retirement plans; the 4% Rule doesn't work; matching spending to retirement reality. Wrestling in the studio w Brent; playing the Lottery & Candy Corn; preview: Transitioning to Medicare Lunch & Learn; Switching-strategies with Social Security: Don't confuse the SS workers. SEG-1: How to Vacation Post-pandemic SEG-2: How Money Needs Shift When Children Arrive SEG-3: Pre-retirement vs Reality SEG-4: Switching-strategies with Social Security Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP. Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaEEQktBjcw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "2% Inflation is a Misnomer" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER for our next Luinch & Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare:" https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3416958364820/WN_Gl2MmDeYR3CrRA11NmC1dQ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #PreRetirement #SocialSecurity #Medicare #PostPandemic #MoneyScript #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/5/23) A sharp slide in gasoline demand and credit card spending could be early evidence of the lag-effect from Fed rate increases finally hitting the economy. The dollar trade has reversed. What happens if Friday's employment report is weaker? Markets are flirting with the critical 200-DMA support level. What Mrs. Roberts is really watching on TikTok; '90's Hairdo's and LTCM: The Yield curve is deeply inverted; what matters is what happens when it un-inverts. What really happened in 1998; we will have a crisis. What will matter is how quickly the Fed will react, not who fails. The Fed's 'Higher for Longer' attitude: bailouts today will be exponentially larger because of the exponentially larger debts involved. Why this week's sell-off felt like the unwinding of someone in trouble (was the Fed up to something?) Inflation vs Deflation & the Fed's intolerance of low stock prices. Why interest rates can only go so far: Higher for longer until something breaks. The common misnomer about 2% inflation; the Fed wants a clear and steady trajectory to 2% inflation. Oil pricing vs gasoline pricing: All forms of Energy make up only 7% of CPI; Housing impact on CPI is nearly half, at 40%. SEG-1: Early Evidence of Lag Effect Emerges SEG-2: Baby Goats, '90's Hairdo's, & LCTM SEG-3: The Fed's 'Higher for Longer' Attitude SEG-4: The Common Misnomer about 2% Inflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tdltYCgDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flirt w 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Something in the Financial System Beginning to Break?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p1TdEe2Q5o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=35s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "From LTCM To 1966. The Perils Of Rising Interest Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/from-ltcm-to-1966.-the-perils-of-rising-interest-rates/ "Government Shutdown Averted. But Is That A Good Thing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-shutdown-averted-but-is-that-a-good-thing/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #HigherForLonger #LagEffect #Deflation #Energy #Gasoline #Oil #Housing #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/5/23) Markets continued to sell off Wednesday, now flirting with the 200-DMA. This is a key support level for markets for myriad reasons: Stocks need to firm up at this level if we're going to get a year-end rally. Historically, and statistically, the odds of such a rally following a weak September are pretty good. However, if we break below that level, the next support will be at 4,000on the S&P. So there certainly is some downside risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcFbmAvj678&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection 200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/4/23) There's a new job opening in Congress: Speaker of the House can be filled by any US citizen. We recommend Newt Gingrich or Judge Ted Poe (likely neither want the gig). Was yesterday's market action a 'liquidation event?' JOLTS data within a downward trend; market sell off to test the 200-DMA. This is a normal correction underway; could it go lower? Homeless Pirates now the scourge of Northern California (where's Capt. Phillips?); speeding tickets, water bills, and banking. Pre-holiday Jobless Claims & a stronger JOLTS in a downward trend. Duct Tape & Bondo; Why are bond yields going up? Looking at liquidation event = $50b in one week; is something in the financial system beginning to break? Bond Yields explains; Yield & Coupons are different thing; coupons = interest rate. Girl Math vs Guy Math. There's blood all over the Bond Market; what happens next? SEG-1: Job Opening in Congress & Testing the 200-DMA SEG-2: Homeless Pirates, Stronger JOLTS in a Downward Trend SEG-3: Duct Tape, Bondo, & Bonds SEG-4: Bond Yields Explained Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p1TdEe2Q5o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=35s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Could the Market Correction Go Deeper?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mfL46pjm8A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will October Provide a Trick or Treat for Investors?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_qZ0uUXpFc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "From LTCM To 1966. The Perils Of Rising Interest Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/from-ltcm-to-1966.-the-perils-of-rising-interest-rates/ "Government Shutdown Averted. But Is That A Good Thing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/government-shutdown-averted-but-is-that-a-good-thing/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #LiquidationEvent #ISM #Employment #JobOpenings #JOTLSreport #BondYields #HouseSpeaker #NewtGingrich #JudgeTedPoe #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/4/23) Markets sold off Tuesday, part of the needful action we've been writing about: Markets are doing exactly what markets should do. It's been an orderly decline, despite yesterday's sharp sell-off, testing the 200-DMA (normal in any given year). Remember, markets had a 15% advance from February to July. Could this correction go deeper? It's possible, but there is a cluster of support around 4,000 on the index. We're looking for a rally back up to 4,350 as an opportunity to reduce risk, if you're worried. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mfL46pjm8A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection 200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/3/23) Investors are looking for stronger economic data; positioning is beginning to emerge for End-of-year; 2024 will be different, with companies' debt maturing and refinancing at higher rates. VIX has been on the rise since September, seeming now to peak. What happened to all those "de-dollarization" stories? The currency is over-bought following a dollar rally. What the ISM is telling us; cycles are sentiment-based. Look for a bounce in sentiment surveys after negativity eases. Data is coming indicating an uptick in economic activity, thanks to Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas spending: Short term optimism. There is greater risk of weaker economic activity in 2024. The problem with narratives: Takes our focus off what's really happening. The greater reluctance to quit jobs: Jobs Opening data is confounding; "job creation" boasts are not true. "Now Hiring sign: "Baby boomers need only apply." Full Time employment is only now back to pre-pandemic levels. Recession in 2024 likely to mild and short-lived (6-mos.) How many job openings are there, really? New headline economic data is on the way: look for a bounce in the markets as earnings season returns. bounces are part of the cycle; markets are setting up for a counter-trend rally, at least. Commercial Real Estate remains under pressure w continue of work-from-home trend. What to do w all the empty office buildings and malls? Is the commercial Real Estate paradigm changing? A particular investment structure is not always the best forever. SEG-1: Positioning for EOY SEG-2: What the ISM is Telling Us SEG-3: Why Job Openings Data is So Confounding SEG-4: Is the Commercial Real Estate Paradigm Changing? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_qZ0uUXpFc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "De-Dollarization Goes Bust" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jfOu1CVsYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Congress Kicks the Can Down the Road (again)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laCyaMLhV0o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #ISM #Employment #JobOpenings #DeDollarization #CommercialRealEstate #EndOfYear #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/3/23) The Volatility Index (VIX) has been on the rise for the past month, and now seems to have peaked. We're now watching for a buy signal as we get into the seasonally strong period of the year. Did the de-dollarization story just play out? Anytime there's high inflation, foreign currencies experience additional headwinds, particularly if there is a deviation between their currency and the dollar. It's a combination of dealing with inflation and the deviation in currency rates: A double tax, which is why some countries were trying to figure out how to do business not in the dollar. Since then, the dollar has rallied strongly, and is now extremely over-bought. Expect some weakness to return, but for now, dollar strength remains as foreign currency flows into the dollar to buy US Treasuries. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jfOu1CVsYE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #Volatility Index #VIX #Dedollarization #CurrencyDeviation #ForeignCurrency #CurrencyFlow #USTreasuries #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/2/23) Free the Pumpkins, it's October 2nd! Student Loan payments resume, and markets prepare for another earnings season. Expectations have declined, and markets are setting up for a technical rally into 2024. Market futures are flat following the aversion of government shutdown with (another) continued resolution. Why CR's are not good for the economy; mandatory spending explained (it's 2% of GDP). Mandatory Spending = 113% of revenue collected: More debt required each time. There's no good reason/excuse for operating without a budget. A history of government shutdowns & why a long government shut down might not be a bad thing. The issues of "direness" is for media's benefit. Lance's liberal cousin, Duane, comes to call: Utah, Beer, & BBQ; The Roberts' rental home; Target leaving New York City; Black Rifle Coffee Company: Duane goes to TSA "Special Line." Market Preview: 1st day of the new quarter; market volatility no surprise; end-of-year dynamics & Santa Claus rallies; is the Fed done? (Yes, but not saying so). Interest rates remain key conundrum for markets. SEG-1: Earnings Expectations Decline as Reporting Season Begins SEG-2: Crisis Averted? Mandatory Spending = 113% of Revenue SEG-3: A Visit from Lance's Liberal Cousin, Duane SEG-4: End-of-Year Dynamics & Santa Claus Rallies Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laCyaMLhV0o&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting up for a Year-end Rally" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxss0c0xcxw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Flaws in Secure Act 2.0" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEK1LnhPYQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CongressionalSpending #GovernmentShutdown #EarningsSeason #LoweredExpectations #BlackRifleCoffee #Markets #Money #Investing

(10/2/23) Futures are flat after being elevated following Sunday's passage of another Continuing Resolution to keep the Federal Government running for another 45-days (without a budget). We're about to walk right into another earnings season, and from a technical perspective, markets are doing okay, and starting to flatten the bottom. It would not be surprising to see markets establish a lower high by the end of the year. Markets are on track to finish the year with about a 12% gain. There is potential for a near-term rally in October into November, but December could be a little "iffy." Markets can always do things you don't expect. We're about 8% into a 10% correction, and that's the set up for a year-end rally. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxss0c0xcxw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #YearEndRally #LowerLows #ContinuingResolution #EarningsSeason #MarketCorrection #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/29/23) Candy Corn martini's & market commentary; why Larry Fink won't be surprised with higher structural inflation: Permatory inflation. No one is ready for rates to be higher for longer. The uptick in 401-k loans and why we can't save: More credit card debt, car payments, and mortgage payments. Flaw in Secure Act 2.0: Elimination of some catch-up provisions. Boosting the Roth: Paying taxes now before taxes increase, which they will. Mrs. Roberts' Halloween decorations; old westerns & Medicare marketing; the pitfalls of Medicare Advantage plans; Open Enrollment strategies: Always shop Park-D. Candid Coffee preview; How to take Social Security survivor benefits: The folly of taking SS too soon, and effects on spousal benefits. SEG-1: Why No One is Ready for Higher Rates for Longer SEG-2: Flaws in Secure Act 2.0 & Why We Can't Save SEG-3: Old Westerns & Medicare Marketing SEG-4: Candid Coffee preview; How to Take SS Survivor's Benefits Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEK1LnhPYQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Fed in a Trap?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #InterestRates #SecureAct #Retirement #Medicare #MedicareAdavantage #OpenEnrollment #SocialSecurity #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession. GDP revisions are rear-view data: Is the Fed in a trap? 7% interest rates are ludicrous; putting "crisis" into perspective. Why things WERE different in 1995: The Yield Curve was not inverted, and did not invert until 1998. Market commentary: Tough week for markets with few drivers and "programmic" selling. Markets are in position to boom ahead of weaker performance next year. Price drives performance and narrative; what's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Group think vs group stink. SEG-1: What's Driving the Markets Now SEG-2: Revising GDP: Is the Fed in a Trap? SEG-3: Why Things WERE Different in 1995 SEG-4: Price Drives the Narrative: What's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We Heading for 7% Interest?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crisis-is-coming-who-is-swimming-naked/ "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GDP #GDI #VIX #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/27/23) Volatility in the markets has been very suppressed of late, but that's changing. Weaker prices and the onset of the quarter's end has caused volatility to tick upward. An increase in the Volatility Index has coincided with the recent market sell-off. When the VIX becomes very over bought, it tends to correspond with the peak of the VIX, and the bottom in the stock markets. We are approaching this point, which also typically coincides with a reversal in the index itself. This is typical of quarter-end rebalancing, and about 25% of all fund managers also have their fiscal year-end at the end of September. Interestingly, 30% of fund managers' fiscal year end occurs in December, so expect a similar sell-off in the first couple of weeks of December. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EndOfQuarter #IndexReversal #VolatilityIndex #VIX #MarketRally #ReflexiveRally #MarketCorrection #Ma

(9/27/23) Is Costco's quarterly earnings report is cause for alarm? Consumer Confidence may be waning; Pessimism is returning as an early sign of economic slowdown. The past 8-sessions have been brutal, but within the "normal" range of an expected 5- to 10% correction. Market is up 11% for the year, driven by 7-stocks; without those stocks, markets are flat. Jamie Dimon's claim for 7% interest is foolish, but he is correct in that the world isn't ready for 7% rates. Higher interest rates increase the risk for financial failures. Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation: Impact of oil prices, energy prices on economy. What happens when consumers absorb price increases: Prices never go back down. This is not like the '70's. Focus on the market drivers and ignore the headlines. Bank of America survey: 70% expect a soft landing without recession in 2024; 20% expect no recession (so recession will probably occur!) The 7 Deadly Sins of End-of-Year Financial Planning include sand-bagging returns, missing RMD's, Gift Tax Exclusions, and Tax Loss Harvesting. Jeff Gundlach's 7% Returns: Beware private bond offerings. Re-defining "Balanced" Allocation; utilizing the Permanent Portfolio Theory. SEG-1: Early Signs of Economic Slowdown SEG-2: Jamie Dimon's Foolishness SEG-3: 7 Deadly Sins of Year-End Financial Planning SEG-4: Redefining "Balanced" Allocations Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Set for Reflexive Rally?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms8tSZWck6U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Compound Market Returns a Myth?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYYLdjRRcn0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/27/23) The past 8-sessions have been brutal, but normal within the context of a need for a 5 to 10% correction. This seasonal pattern of Summer weakness will present the potential for a rally in the 4th quarter. The markets are over-sold, which could foretell a reflexive rally. Remember, this market is essentially still being led by seven stocks, and is up a little over 11% for the year as a result...but a look at the equal-weight index reveals markets are essentially flat for the year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms8tSZWck6U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #ReflexiveRally #MarketCorrection #MarketSupport #DownsideRisk #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/26/23) Some market volatility due to quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios. Some downside risk remains. Markets are in search of a catalyst, and trading at the mercy of rebalancing activity. Compounding Market Returns: Mythical or real? Albert Einstein called compound interest the 8th Wonder of the World. It's not the same with market returns (charts for illustration). Calculating yield and coupons for bond investors; understanding investing dynamics and what drives returns. Stocks vs Bonds vs Real Estate: companies can fail, but land will always have value. Life in a mid-century neighborhood. Examining the realities of a government shutdown: Don't let the news media fool you (or scare you)! Non-discretionary payments will continue, and a shutdown will not cause a recession. Avoid the noise in the media. Fatalism vs Optimism. SEG-1: Markets In Search of Catalyst SEG-2: The Myth of Compounding Market Returns SEG-3: Bond Talk & Understanding Investing Dynamics SEG-4: The Realities of Government Shutdown Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYYLdjRRcn0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest the Downside Today?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxoI_gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketReturns #CompoundInterest #ALbertEinstein #Bonds #Coupon #GovernmentShutdown #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/26/23) Markets are holding support and will retest the downside today. There certainly is some downside risk. We're over-sold and the MACD sell signal needs to turn. Statistically, a weak August and September tends to lead to a strong October. We're going through a fairly orderly corrective cycle at present. The bigger risk for a larger correction will be next year. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxoI_gLGYsk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSupport #DownsideRisk #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/25/23) How Taylor Swift and Beyonce moved the GDP needle; wrapping up September and the next earnings season preview; can corporate profit margins be maintained? Will the Fed continue to be wrong? The Risk of testing the 200-DMA: there's always a downside. Setting up for October: MACD to turn positive. 25-yrs ago, the demise of Longterm Capital Management: The beginning of "Too Big to Fail." Every time the Fed raises rates, something breaks. What's wrong with bailouts? Companies aren't allowed to fail. Good bankruptcy vs bad: Restructuring vs liquidation, and the financial system becomes weaker as a result. Financial Failures & Forest Fires: the necessity of culling the herd. The realities of Social Security: Bankrupt by 2031? Debt Ceiling & Gov't. shutdown as they kick the can down the road. Again,. Invest in things you can control. The next big thing to grapple: The end of the Government fiscal year, and the associated threats of government shutdown: The problem with Continuing Resolutions: there's no control on federal spending. It's a blank check + 8%. The ugly truth behind "strong" employment numbers: most new jobs are in the government sector. SEG-1: Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer? SEG-2: The Beginning of Too Big to Fail SEG-3: Financial Failures & Forest Fires SEG-4: The Next Big Thing: End of Gov't. Fiscal Year Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold the Line?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #ProfitMargins #TooBigToFail #GovernmentShutdown #DebtCeiling #ContinuingResolution #TaylorSwift #Beyonce #Markets #Money #Investing

9/25/23) The S&P closed down on Friday after spending most of the day in positive territory in a choppy day of trading. But markets held support going back to the lows of June. But, if markets cannot hold the line over the next few days, there is a risk of testing the 200-DMA, now at 4,180. The MACD Sell-signal, however, is very weak here, but this appears to be a nice set up for moving into the more-seasonally strong period of October thru December. The signal will be that sell-signal flipping to "buy." Downside risk remains until then. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketSupport #MCADSellSignal #BuySignal #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/22/23) The Oscar Meyer Weinermobile is returning; Jerome Powell & the shrinking market; the resilience of the consumer is weakening, cooling down. Candid Coffee preview of Progression Planning presentation: Having the Conversation; Trump Tax Cuts are expiring in 2026; what you need to do now; the Roth Solution. Autumn onset; family funds & tax planning; the use of life insurance: Making sure your money goes to family instead of the government. How inflation is affecting financial planning; your advisor must be a student of inflation SEG-1: Oscar Meyer Mobile & Shrinking Market SEG-2: Candid Coffee Promo/Preview SEG-3: BlackRock and Tax Cut Expirations SEG-4: Autumn Onset & Family Fund Tax Planning Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #TrumpTaxCuts #FinancialPlanning #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/21/23) The markets' response to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and comments from Jerome Powell were the same as the past eight such announcements. The unspoken question: When will the Fed begin to cut rates? Preparation for Q4 is underway as earnings season wraps; markets are close to end of current corrective phase, and volatility is beginning to warm up. The Fed offered no hope or magical language for Markets. Higher for Longer will be the theme, with no material change from previous statements. The Fed's economic projections are never correct. We're expecting negative revisions to previous GDP numbers. Are higher interest rates here to stay? Does the "neutral rate" reflect what's happening or what's lagging? Demographics are destiny. What the Fed didn't say: What's coming will drive policy; a "soft-landing" is not the Fed's base-line expectation. The Fed WANTS Recession. SEG-1: Market Response in FOMC Aftermath SEG-2: What the Fed Said SEG-3: Higher Interest Rates Forever? SEG-4: What the Fed Didn't Say Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IOGmhwnntw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is This Time Different- Unpacking Bond Yields" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-this-time-different-unpacking-bond-yields/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Demographics #NeutralRate #BondYields #GDP #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/21/23) Market Futures are pointing lower this morning following yesterday's FOMC announcement essentially promising higher rates for longer. However, markets may close to the end of the current corrective phase as we head into a third-straight week of sloppiness. Markets will today challenge the 100-DMA, and could go a little below that. We're thinking support on the S&P will be right around 4,300 which may be the bottom of the sell off. We're also noticing an uptick in volatility now. So we're seeing a bit of selling pressure today, with buying in the afternoon. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid for fly balls & Christina Roberts' money tree. The new Retirement Bill: take risk in taxable accounts. Can the Fed achieve a "soft-landing," what is that, anyway? Pandemic effect on employment & investing. The challenging year; who'll cave first in congressional budget talks? SEG-1: FOMC Day Preview SEG-2: Are We Doing Bonds Wrong? SEG-3: FedEx Barometer for Retail Sales, and Feeding Kids SEG-4: Can the Fed Achieve a "Soft Landing?" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Waiting for the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #GovernmentShutdown #Bonds #ForeignDebt #FedExBarometer #CerealIndex #RetailSales #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/20/23) The market is glued to what the Fed will say this afternoon following its monthly FOMC meeting. Despite the volatility and choppiness recently, markets have really gone nowhere. Markets are operating within a very confined consolidation range. Regardless of the Fed's comments today, the result will likely be a directional move to one side or the other. Hawkish comments will likely send markets to the downside, or at least remain within the consolidation zone, but a dovish approach could elevate stocks anew. There is downside risk, but the most-likely result will be the continuation of the consolidation process. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/19/23) What's wrong with prepping for Halloween...in September? Fed meeting preview; earnings season is all but done, oil prices are creeping up, most over-bought commodity, so look for a pullback; Dovish Fed & Market consolidation continues w suppressed volatility. Will there be weakness in October to set up for run into the end of the year? (Charts & graphs) Why Fed GDP growth projections are too high (and never correct). Lower inflation gives Fed room to not raise rates yet; odds of market shock are low. The problem with data is the lag effect: It's all early guesswork. Are ETF's good for the markets, long-term? Why issue an ETF as a loss-leader? (How do issuers make money on ETF's?? Liquidity in Order-flow (there's no free lunch). At what point does market distortion by EFT's become a problem? SEG-1: Preparing for October & Fed Meeting Preview SEG-2: October Weakness Before Year-end Rally? SEG-3: The Problem with Lag Effect in Data SEG-4: What Will Be the Unintended Effects of EFT's? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Economy Trifecta This Month" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/19/23) The market is beginning to price-in what they expect to happen, essentially holding flatly against a consolidation line. Markets are close to being over-sold and close to triggering a short-term sell-signal. That could reverse, should the market rally. A dovish Fed meeting outcome could be that spark. Markets are now setting up for that seasonably strong period of the year, but not quite there, yet, with confidence settling and sentiment returning. There certainly is room for markets to break to the downside; volatility has been very suppressed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ4D3lSgGAU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #FederalReserve #MarketVolatility #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/18/23) Last week's market pressure came from economic numbers; this week, it's the Fed meeting, and the 'will they, won't they' question about raising rates. Most likely, the Fed will hold steady with not rate hike this month. There is an economic trifecta bearing down on markets: The resumption of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and the renewed threat of a government shutdown. September seems to be a month of significance: Historically, the Lehman failure, 9/11... Markets closed down +1% on Friday thanks to extreme options expirations. Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; Why the UAW Strike isn't the end of the world, but will impact economic activity. Resumption of student loan repayments and government shutdown have more risk to economy. Pizza Sales indicator; the pay disparity myth: it's a job-choice issue. The Myth of Bond Vigilantes; how looking for a recession has morphed into looking for a soft landing; when all the experts agree, something else happens. The Fed is expected to hold firm on rates. There's been only one soft-landing since the end of WW2. The data is flawed: We don't know what we don't know. SEG-1: The Significance of September SEG-2: Man Cave Weekend & Girl Math; The Economic Trifecta SEG-3: The Myth of the Bond Vigilantes SEG-4: Four Threats Against a Soft Landing Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH8jO8-aapQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Will Buying Power Return? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Your 90-Year Old Parent Moves-in" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #GovernmentShutdown #StudentLoanRepayment #BondVigilantes #PizzaSales #ManCave #GirlMath #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/18/23) Markets closed down a little more than 1% on Friday, taking out the 20- and 50-DMA. Friday was strange due to the largest options expirations on record: A lot of stocks had to be sold and there were a lot of puts on companies that had top be rolled over, creating an outsized level of volatility on Friday. Markets are now solidly sitting on support atop a consolidation pattern we've been in for a few weeks, after grinding through this seasonably weak period of the year. Markets will be positioning ahead of this week's Fed meeting, so additional weakness over the next several days would not be surprising. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGrGUnh6oC4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MarketSupport #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/15/23) Predictions are for no more rate hikes for a while; UAW Strike is on: What do you do if you need a car now? How to plan for taking care of elderly parents. At what age are best financial decisions made? Financial literacy peaks at 54; " eureka moment" at 45. What happens when your 90-year old parent moves-in? How to talk about aging and finances: When it's time to take away the financial keys; planning ahead to avoid animosity. The documentation you need: Wills, Directives, TOD's, & Trusts; Fidelity FidSafe, online access to accounts. What do you do with all that junk...er, those heirlooms? SEG-1: The UAW Strike: What if You Need a Car? SEG-2: The Best Age for Making Financial Decisions SEG-3: How to Talk About Aging & Financials SEG-4: What Do You Do With the Junk? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, Senior Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPpBMhoPVE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2664s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Up with Inflation?" v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #UAWstrike #ElderlyParents #Eldercare #FinancialKeys #FinancialDiscussion #FinancialLiteracy #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/14/23) The ARM IPO debuts today at $51/share; why IPO's aren't a good deal. PPI preview; CPI review: Inflation up on fuel prices and housing costs; the Fed is on hold for now. Market Volatility is very low on a deep sell signal; potential triggers could be the UAW Strike at midnight tonight, government shutdown fears in October, and the reimposition of student loan payments sucking revenue from retail sales. The impact of oil prices on inflation is negligible compared to shelter costs (accounting for over 1/3rd of CPI). Don't expect a large bump in inflation from energy costs. Core Inflation vs Headline Data: Why inflation is calculated this way. What will the Fed do next? They're not saying in order to avoid a market rally. Job Creation planning is at an 8-year low. No more payroll growth = no economic expansion; employment levels now returning to "normal." Traffic tickets & home-life discussions at the Roberts'; market preview & EOY investing strategies; market performance YTD; the need for portfolio managers to "play catch-up" to preserve their jobs. Look for a reversal of stock buyback suppression; 2024 may be "The Year of Value." SEG-1: Is the Fed on Hold? SEG-2: Interpreting Inflation SEG-3: What Will the Fed Do Next? SEG-4: Traffic Tickets, Homelife Discussions, & EOY Investing Strategies Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UG4e75gfbM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2731s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What's Likely to Trigger the Next Round of Volatility?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Mortgage Lenders Created Unaffordable Housing" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGh81vUL7Aw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Lag Effect Unveiled" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-lag-effect-unveiled/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PPI #EnergyPrices #Shelter #Volatility #ARMIPO #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/14/23) Volatility remains exceptionally low, despite CPI and inflation news. The sell signal is now pretty deep. What could trigger the next round of volatility? An impending strike by United Auto Workers at midnight tonight, which would immediately affect used car prices, as well as impact Q4 performance; another potential government shutdown in October could impact economic growth; also, student loan repayments return in October, potentially pulling spending out of retail sales, which could also impact economic growth in Q4. The way forward is not clear, so pay attention to volatility. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jypMhluou3s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #MarketVolatility #UAWstrike #StudentLoanRepayment #GovernmentShutdown #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, then sold off yesterday; who can afford an iPhone 15? CPI for August to be released this morning (3.7% vs anticipated 3.6%). Lenders are now rolling out a 1% down payment program in hopes of reviving their business. The thing about home ownership: It's always something. How do mortgage lenders do it? They eat part of the rate up front, but YOU will pay for it on the back end. What does a larger (20%) down payment say about financial ability? The cost of home ownership goes beyond being able to afford a mortgage payment; home prices are a function of supply & demand. No one wants to sell into a housing market with 7% mortgage rates. The tricks home builders use; How "good" do Baby Boomers have it (and why)? Time to invest, bull markets; thought processes about money, managing expenses. What is an IPOP all about: It's NOT selling at a discount. (Fiscal responsibility doesn't sell products) What do 20% of Gen-Z's want to be? Social Media influencers. Switching from spending to saving mode. SEG-1: The Apple Reveal: Who Can Afford an iPhone? SEG-2: Is the 1% Down Payment a Win-win? SEG-3: The Cost of Home Ownership: Why Prices are Too High SEG-4: Why Baby Boomers have it So "Good" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGh81vUL7Aw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rising Bottoms & Declining Tops" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bad News Spells Opportunity" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Inflation #MortageRates #AffordableHousing #DownPayment #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/13/23) Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, and then sold off. The wedge pattern of rising bottoms and declining tops is becoming more pronounced and more compressed, and prices are going to have to make a move out of this tighter range fairly soon. The question is, what will be the trigger? Headline Core Inflation was expected to print at .6% year over year (it did), but month over month inflation increased at a 3.7% rate vs the expected 3.6%. These numbers could lead to a decline of as much as 1.5% in the S&P today. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_yt7qpT20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714782/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #PriceCompression #Markets #Money #Investing

(9/12/23) The markets have gone 95-days since any correction of at least 1.5%; today is Apple day: Where did the hype all go? Tomorrow's CPI report is expected to show inflation a tad higher, but not enough to trigger another Fed rate hike. Yet. Weakness in the Labor market is becoming more apparent. Options traders are piling into Zero-DTE's, essentially gambling on the market. Volatility has calmed, a precursor for higher volatility. The Fiscal Year for the Federal Government is coming to a close (again) with no budget since Bush was in office. Remembering how government spending used to be: One item, one bill (pre-WW2). Temporary mass-spending bills are now the norm. What does the threat of "Government Shutdown" really entail? There is no risk of debt default or SS non-payment. 5th Circuit Court rules on internet censorship and collusion between Biden administration & social media platforms to violate 1st Amendment. Dealing w mis-information; why opposing views are important. The "Global Warming" narrative has evolved into "Climate Change;" follow the money. Market futures; Raytheon's 16% drop on engine recalls; why it pays to be contrarian. Bad news can sometimes mean opportunity. SEG-1: Where'd the Hype Go at Apple? SEG-2: What Does a Gov't Shutdown Really Entail? SEG-3: What the Internet Should Be All About SEG-4: When Bad News Spells Opportunity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgjm3cLQEI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=14s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Zero-DTE Options: Gamble or Good?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGF6yshrJ7s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Biggest Head-scratchers This Year" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm3PgLBY76g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=57s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Inflation & Interest Rates. What Is The Link?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-inflation-interest-rates-what-is-the-link/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Apple #CPI #Raytheon #MarketVolatility #Options #GovernmentShutdown #Internet #1stAmemendment #ClimateChange #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing