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Sentiment was slightly better and the dollar was slightly lower on Tuesday on the back of a softer-than-expected PPI report from the US and on news that Donald Trump’s America First team would only ‘gradually’ increase tariffs on the rest of the world – if that’s any comfort. All eyes are on the US CPI data due today. The headline inflation in the US is expected to have ticked higher from 2.7% to 2.9% in December, while core inflation is seen sticky near the 3.3% level. A higher-than-expected set of data could reverse yesterday’s selloff in the US dollar and weigh on treasuries and equities, while a softer-than-expected figure could help cooling the hawkish Fed expectations and let the US dollar give back field, and the treasuries and equities take a breather. Elsewhere, the Eurozone countries are also releasing fresh updates to their inflation numbers today with the Eurozone aggregate figure for December due Friday, meanwhile the UK printed a set of lower-than-expected inflation figures this morning. In energy, news that Israel and Hamas are nearing a ceasefire agreement before Trump’s inauguration helped cooling the rally but the geopolitical risks prevail. Listen to find out more!

The bond selloff continues. The global bond selloff is fueled by concerns over soaring debt levels leading to political turmoil and uncertainty in developed economies. This is compounded by major central banks' struggles to bring inflation down to their 2% target, amid various economic, political and geopolitical developments that could trigger a reversal in consumer prices worldwide. Consequently, the yields are rising and the expectations of further rate cuts from some major central banks are melting putting equities under pressure. Markets’ sensitivity to major economic data will likely rise as policy uncertainties mount and appetite weakens. Due today, the US will release its latest PPI numbers, and the headline PPI may have risen from 3% to 3.4% in December and core PPI is seen rising from 3.4% to 3.7% during the same month. Rising price pressures are not good news for the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves. Stronger-than-expected inflation figures could further accelerate the US treasury selloff and support the US dollar. Yet the dollar rally appears to be approaching stretched levels, which could encourage contrarians to return to the market. Listen to find out more!

Surprise! The US economy added more than 250K new nonfarm jobs in December, some 90K more than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. If it’s any comfort for the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves: wages growth softened from 4% to 3.9% on a yearly basis. But all in all, the report looked very strong, and further hammered the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. The US yields and the dollar gained, equities fell and the VIX index flirted with the 20 level, suggesting mounting discomfort among investors. But not in oil! US crude oil jumped on fresh US and UK sanctions against Russian oil companies and vessels that transport this oil. The new week has a busy economic and corporate calendar. The US inflation update, the Big bank and TSM earnings will be closely watched by investors around the world. Listen to find out more!

The selloff in British gilts and the pound slowed yesterday after Rachel Reeves compromised on her spending plans but the pound, as other major currencies, remain under a decent selling pressure into the US jobs data due later today. Before the announcement of the US official jobs data, activity on Fed funds futures suggests that the Fed’s next rate cut should arrive in May – with around a 53% chance. A set of stronger-than-expected data could flip this expectation to the ‘no cut until June’ side very rapidly and enhance the selloff in the US dollar and support a further appreciation of the US dollar, while a set of softer-than-expected jobs data could strengthen the hope of a May cut. Given how quickly the Fed hawks have gained ground in recent weeks—and how much more investors are excited by dovish signals—the market’s reaction to soft data could outweigh its response to strong figures. On the flip side of the world, the Chinese struggle with a completely different problem. Despite the announcement of multitude stimulus measures, yields there continue to dive, and the gap between the US and Chinese yields are widening *alarmingly*. China will release its latest inflation report this weekend, and everyone prays for deflation to slow. Listen to find out more!

A rough start for Bitcoin in the new year. But while the ETF flows are going up and down we're focusing on what's going to happen this week in the world cryptos 00:00 Intro 00:26 New Years 00:56 Preview 01:17 Bitcoin 04:00 Solana, Ethereum, Base 05:07 Ripple 06:22 Bitcoin Chart 07:06 Ethereum Chart 07:42 Solana Chart 08:22 Ripple Chart 09:10 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The selloff in US treasuries continued yesterday over concerns that Donald Trump’s presidency would boost spending and inflation in the US, and make the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) job of bringing inflation back to the 2% target more difficult. The selloff slowed after weaker-than-expected ADP report. Across the Atlantic, The 10-year gilt yield advanced to the highest level since 2008 yesterday and broke above the peak levels that were reached during Liz Truss’ historic mini budget crisis. Sterling fell against a broadly bought US dollar, but also against the weakening euro. The barrel of US crude remembered what it was like to sit above the $75pb level for a while, before returning to the $73-ish levels. And finally, trade tensions get tenser between the US and the latter. Biden announced additional restrictions on AI chip exports – after blacklisting Tencent and CATL, one of Tesla’s key battery suppliers. Nvidia dipped below $140 share after the bell, while quantum stocks tanked after Jensen Huang said that he doesn’t see quantum computers’ usefulness before 15 – or even 20 years. Note that the US stock markets will be closed today as day of mourning for Jimmy Carter, while the bond market will close at 2pm New York time. Listen to find out more!

Good news was bad news yesterday and they even wiped out the optimism that Nvidia initially created around AI with the announcement of new products. The US released a set of higher-than-expected ISM data, suggesting that non-manufacturing activity was better than expected in December – in contradiction to the S&P’s PMI data released a day before. But what really dampened the market mood was that prices paid by companies unexpectedly - and meaningfully - jumped to the highest levels since 2023. Separately, JOLTS data hinted at an unexpected jump in job openings in November to above 8 mio jobs openings. The better-than-expected US data fuelled the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, pushed the US yields higher and kicked the expectation of the next Fed cut further down the road. The US dollar rebounded against most majors as the latest US data fuelled the Fed hawks. Due today, the ADP report is expected to print a relatively soft number of new private job additions last month. In Europe, the CPI reading came in line with expectations, fuelled the European Central Bank (ECB) doves, pulled the euro lower and pushed stocks higher. Across the Channel, the UK’s 30-year gilt yield advanced to the highest level since 1998. Listen to find out more!

Early year worries that the AI rally would fizzle out were rapidly wiped out at the start of this week by several news, including Microsoft’s announcement to be willing to spend $80bn on data centers – which pushed the stock up to 1.4% yesterday and Foxconn’s announcement of a 42% surge in its December sales thanks to AI-driven demand. But mood beyond tech was murkier. The Dow Jones for example was slightly lower on Monday, as US yields spiked. The US dollar couldn’t benefit from higher yields as Washington Post reported that Trump’s policies wouldn’t be as harsh as promised. But Trump rapidly denied the news and the dollar rebounded. The USDCAD sharply fell on Trudeau’s resignation – and probably on the back of a rally in US crude, the EURUSD – which tanked to 1.0224 in the early hours of the new year - rebounded past the 1.04 level, and Cable successfully threw itself back above the 1.25 mark. The rising energy prices in Europe ease the dovish Fed expectations as inflation in the EZ ticks higher. European nat gas prices rallied 30% since mid-December, as US crude hit $75pb mark. Listen to find out more!

Here we are, the last day and the last trading day of the year. It’s now been about two years that ChatGPT was launched and it’s been two years that the AI buzz pushed some US Big Tech companies to ... the sky, really. The consensus is that 2025 should be a good year, that the easing central bank policies and falling yields should help the US Big Tech rally to further broaden toward the non-tech pockets of the market, and beyond the US. In FX, the US dollar index is having its best year since 2015 and could continue to extend gains on the back of a gradually less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, while the euro is seen weakening against the dollar and sterling. In commodities, gold had a stellar year and could see more gains in case of a downside correction in global equity markets. While crude oil will likely close the week in the bearish consolidation zone, below the $72.85pb level, as the expectation of an average 1mbpd supply glut next year and China’s inability to reverse weakness will probably limit the upside potential. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on a positive note for the European stocks and negative note for the US stocks. Friday saw the S&P500 dive more than 1%, while the Stoxx 600 closed 0.67% higher. We can’t drive major conclusions in a holiday-shortened and thin-trading-volume week, but last week’s price action looked pretty close to the narrative of rotation from tech to non-tech stocks that many investors expect to be the theme of next year. Asian markets opened the week on a negative note. The Japanese Nikkei index and Australian stocks were offered this Monday with trading volumes nearly 20% lower the Japanese market, and 55% lower for their Australian peers (Bloomberg). Futures point at an unappetizing start for the last Monday of the year both in Europe and in the US, and the price moves could be exaggerated with low trading volumes. In the FX, the US dollar is flat. The EURUSD sees resistance into 1.0435, while Cable is offered into 1.26 level. The USDJPY continues to flirt with the 158 resistance as traders and government officials are getting caught up in heated debates. Listen to find out more!

Those glued to their screens, hoping for Santa’s arrival, were left disappointed. The major US indices weren’t in good shape yesterday even after a mixed bag of US jobs data. The major US equity indices were softer as Bitcoin gave back Xmas day gains. In China, equities are better bid since Chinese authorities pledge on Tuesday to sell a record amount of 3 trillion yuan worth of special treasury bonds next year to give support to the economy. In Japan, the Nikkei index surged past the 40’000 mark on the back of a weakening yen as the bears are out and selling the yen since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) bypassed a rate hike earlier this month. Elsewhere, in the FX, the US dollar index was mostly steady this week. The EURUSD is under pressure on French political uncertainties. Across the Channel, hope that 2025 will bring good health to the UK economy - ideally with improved relations with once-loved and cherished ones - persists, but the path remains shaky. In energy, the barrel makes an attempt above the 50-DMA, but remains topped by offers before reaching the 100-DMA – which currently stands near the $71.30pb level. Listen to find out more!

Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy. But even though the equity markets looked joyful on Monday, the US 2-year papers remained offered and the US dollar erased earlier losses to finish the session higher against most majors. Meagre news and data flow should keep the focus on a more hawkish Fed. The pullbacks in the US dollar are probably good opportunities to buy the dips against most majors. As per equities, the rally extends but the questions regarding the ballooning valuations of Big Tech stocks become louder, too. Two stellar years of more than 20% gains for the S&P500 definitely calls for correction. But no one is willing to leave the festive table, just yet. Merry Xmas! Listen to find out more!

US stocks rebounded and the US dollar retreated on Friday on the back of softer-than-expected PCE numbers from the US and in the absence of major economic data, this Xmas-shortened week could see a further rebound in the US equities – no one wants to miss the Santa rally – and a further retreat in the US dollar in favour of its major counterparts. Yet, beyond tactical trades based on last week’s softer-than-expected PCE measures, the story remains unchanged. The core PCE in the US has been moving up since the summer dip and settled at 2.8% for the second consecutive month, and – I can never repeat this enough but – Trump’s pro-growth policies, tariffs, mass deportations hint that the US inflation risks are tilted toward the upside. In commodities, US crude is better bid above the 50-DMA – few cents below the $70pb level – but without a strong conviction to extend this rebound. Gold is better bid this morning. Lately, the yellow metal has been pressured by the rising US yields that increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold - but an accelerated selloff in global equities could drive capital into the safe-haven metal regardless of the upswing in yields. Copper is at an interesting dip-buying level for those betting for recovery in 2025 on the back of softer global financial conditions. Listen to find out more!

A week packed with central bank decisions is coming to an end with a sour taste in everybody’s mouth. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut rates by 25bp was fully meaningless and the incoming data is a proof. The US Q3 growth was revised to 3.1% from 2.8% printed earlier, the sales growth was revised higher from 3 to 3.3% and core PCE priced – though lower than the quarter before – was also revised slightly higher to 2.20%, raising worries that even the two rate cuts from the Fed next year would be too much. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) held rates but refrained from committing to a plan, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also opted for a no change despite telling investors earlier this month that they will moderately loosen their monetary policy. As such, the US dollar extends gains, major currencies struggle, appetite for risky assets is waning and crude oil is down. Listen to find out more!

Sometimes, the truth is hard to say—and even harder to hear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced another 25bp cut as widely expected and priced in, but hinted that there will be just about two rate cuts throughout next year. The market reaction was very aggressive, of course. The US yields and the dollar jumped, the S&P500 sold off nearly 3%. The Fed probably spoiled this year’s Santa rally, as its hawkish shift could trigger a deeper correction across US equity markets. In commodities, oil sold off and gold tipped a toe below the $2600 per ounce and below its 100-DMA. Higher US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold, yet an accelerated selloff and a prolonged weakness in equity markets could drive capital toward the safety of the yellow metal. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrained from announcing a rate cut and the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to do nothing, too. Listen to find out more!

While the FED cut rates, the entire crypto market is taking a breather. Why the correction and why is Solana struggling? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:43 Bitcoin 04:08 Aave 04:35 Charts 07:31 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Canada joined the global political gloom. The sudden resignation of the finance minister on Monday started raising questions about Trudeau’s leadership as politicians there try to find ways to deal with economic slowdown topped by Trump’s tariff threats. A bit lower on the map, Brazil intervened to stop the bleeding of the real after the currency tanked more than 20% against the greenback to an all-time-low this year. Ballooning debt and deficit are taking a toll on the country’s finances. In France, the National Assembly just adopted a stopgap budget bill to avoid a government shutdown from January, while Germany announced an early election in February next year, on Monday. In the US, investors were also worried but for a different reason: the retail sales, there, has again been higher than expected by analysts, again pointed at resilient consumer spending and again highlighted the needlessness of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) today. The Fed will announce a 25bp cut no matter what, but the accompanying statement and the dot plot will be more important as investors try to understand whether the Fed sees the mismatch between the data and expectations, and their policy. In the UK, sterling is softer despite strong jobs and in-line inflation data, on worries that the UK’s economy could slow down before it improves – of the Bank of England (BoE) doesn’t give the necessary support. Listen to find out more!

‘Europe appears to be coming apart one nation at a time’, writes Bloomberg to summarize the complicated politics of the old continent. After the French snap election led to a divided government and an ungovernable France since summer, German politicians gave a no-confidence verdict for the three-way ruling party of Germany, paving the way for an early election in February – about 7 months earlier than scheduled. The DAX index retreated yesterday, but from near an ATH level. The political shenanigans didn’t prevent the index from rallying above the 20’000 this month. Its technology heavy weights, like SAP and Siemens, followed their American peers to the north, and somehow hid the misery of the carmakers. But the Stoxx 600 appears to be peaking ahead of what’s shaping up to be a chaotic Christmas in Europe, while the US continues to revel in the joys of life. There, the atmosphere is completely different. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to announce an additional 25bp cut that the country doesn’t necessarily need on top of a 75bp cut delivered since September. The S&P500 was up yesterday, not to a record – but near, Nasdaq 100 however advanced to a fresh record high, with Broadcom gaining another 11% yesterday – on top of the 24% added on Friday post-earnings on their juicy forecast for custom AI chips. Listen to find out more!

China’s latest efforts to convince investors that it will boost its economy with great stimulus measures had the same reaction than the previous ones: disappointment. The Chinese yields nosedive but the shares don’t react. Except one bright spot: Xiaomi. Elsewhere, in Korea, the political turmoil continues to weigh on sentiment, while in France, the relief on the appointment of Francois Bayrou – another very established name in French politics – to replace Barnier as the new French PM was clouded by Moody’s downgrading the French credit rating to Aa3 – three levels below the top. Nearby, German politicians will hold a confidence vote to pave the way for a February snap election. So, the bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) must do the heavy lifting remains strong after last week’s cautious 25bp cut. Across the Channe, Cable is slightly better bid this morning, while the USDJPY is gaining traction to the upside. Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) could leave the rates unchanged, but there is a chance that the BoJ opts to hike. In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to trim its rates by another 25bp when it meets this week. The S&P500 closed last week near record while Nasdaq advanced to a fresh record high on Friday. This time, it was Broadcom’s turn to shine. The company’s stock price jumped 24% to a record high on Friday after announcing better-than-expected earnings and saying that it expects a booming demand for their custom-made AI chips. Listen to find out more!

This week has been rich in terms of interest rate cuts from major central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t cut its rates but gave an unexpectedly dovish statement, citing that the RBA officials are turning more confident that inflation is on path toward their policy goal. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a second 50bp cut in a row, following three 25bp cuts before that. Then, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a 50bp cut – it was not the base case scenario but it was not a surprise, either. The European Central Bank (ECB) also cut, but the European officials decided to go ahead with a cautious 25bp cut before Xmas, and Lagarde didn’t say much about what the ECB would do in the next meetings. The EURUSD fell, however, but the selloff was mostly explained by a higher-than-expected US PPI print that landed just between the ECB decision and Lagarde’s press conference. As such, the dollar looks stronger this Friday than it looked last Friday. Listen to find out more!

The probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December jumped to nearly 100% yesterday, after the US CPI update came in line with expectations. Major indices rally with joy. Technology stocks led gains, but enthusiasm was not only backed by the Fed cut expectations. It was also backed by tech related news. Google for example jumped nearly 5.5% to a record high on news that the company made a ‘major development’ in quantum computing using its Willow quantum chip while Broadcom – that’s due to announce earnings today - flirted with ATH yesterday on news that they are developing an AI chip with Apple. In Europe, the news are much less future-oriented and exciting, to be honest. But the Stoxx 600 is better bid on hope that the European Central Bank (ECB) will step up its support to the economy. In this context, the ECB is expected to deliver another 25bp cut at today’s meeting, and maybe more! Other than the ECB, the BoC cut by 50bp yesterday, and the SNB could opt for 50bp to counter the franc’s appreciation. Listen to find out more!

How scary is quantum computing for Bitcoin really? Will we still knock over the 100k barrier? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:29 Bitcoin 04:53 Ethereum 08:01 Solana 08:50 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

In today’s special episode of Market Talk, we’re diving deep into one of the most fascinating tools in technical analysis: the Fibonacci retracement. Learn how this popular indicator helps identify key support and resistance levels, spot potential trend reversals, and guide your trading strategy with confidence. We’ll also explore the golden ratio’s surprising connections to nature and why its popularity makes it a go-to tool for traders worldwide. Using practical examples like EURUSD and oil, I’ll show you how to apply Fibonacci levels effectively—whether you’re a day trader or focusing on medium-term trends. Listen to find out more!

Sentiment in Chinese equities reversed suddenly to a significantly more bullish state after the Politburo – which is the highest-decision making bodies within the Communist Party – pledged to embrace a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025. Now, all eyes are on the Central Economic Work Conference, where the Chinese officials will discuss behind closed doors and ideally complement the monetary support with juicy fiscal support. It’s tempting to buy Chinese assets at significant discount, but don’t forget that 2024 was marked by stimulus hints that led to a market rally, but resulted in disappointing stimulus measures and a selloff. In other news, Chinese companies reportedly cut off key supplies to the US and Europe necessary to build unmanned aerial vehicles for example, and the country opened a probe into Nvidia accusing the company for breaking their antimonopoly laws in the acquisition of Mellanox Technologies back in 2020. More of China: Gold is up after a few stagnant weeks on news that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed buying gold after a 6-month pause – certainly to back a looser monetary policy and maybe to decrease exposure to US treasuries. Crude oil, on the other hand, remained capped into the $69pb level at yesterday’s rally fueled by Syrian uncertainty and hopes of Chinese stimulus. Listen to find out more!

Bashar al-Assad's regime fell over the weekend, Korean lawmakers prepare another impeachment attempt against their President who narrowly avoided removal after briefly imposing martial law last week, and France remains without a new presidential nominee. As such, the US dollar is stronger on safety demand and crude oil is better bid on renewed political uncertainty in the Middle East. But the Syrian news will unlikely reverse the bearish oil trend, and the rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations are fundamentally supportive of a softer US dollar. This week’s US CPI data will be the last piece of the puzzle before the Fed meets next week. The CPI number is expected to print a small uptick in November, but should not compromise a December Fed cut. January however will probably be a close call. Elsewhere, the week will be packed with central bank decision. The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce their latest policy verdict throughout this week and all – except the RBA – are expected to lower their rates. Listen to find out more!

Against all odds, yesterday ended up being a good day – at least for investors who have exposure to the French assets. The French government fell and the political uncertainty shifted to a higher gear yet, the French 10-year yield eased, the euro gained, and the CAC 40 hasn’t had such a good week since September. The US dollar index came swiftly down yesterday on the back of a higher-than-expected jobless claims number last week. Today, the official jobs data is expected to print a strong NFP number – of around 200K new nonfarm job additions for November. But investors are ready to disregard any strength on that front given that last month’s figure will be impacted by the hurricanes and strikes of the month before. US jobs data in line with expectations – or ideally softer than expected – should lead to a further dollar depreciation into the weekly closing bell. In energy, OPEC announcement didn’t enhance appetite among the bulls. In equities, the week was painted in green on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Listen to find out more!

The French government just collapsed, but the euro gains. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is in a remarkably good shape, but the US dollar retreats, and OPEC is preparing to delay its production restoration plans today, but oil bears remain in charge. Away from these problems, the S&P500 just printed its 56th record high this year and Nasdaq 100 jumped to a fresh ATH. Amazon advanced to a fresh record as news that Amazon is building a supercomputer powered by hundreds of thousands of its own Trainium chips to train Anthropic AI models wet investors’ appetite. The move could help Amazon cut reliance on pricey Nvidia chips and do the same for its Big Tech buddies. The rumour has it, Apple is on board as a customer. Do Nvidia investors worry about it? Not for now. The shares jumped 3.5% yesterday to past $145 per share. But it’s worth keeping an eye on this space because the Big Tech stood for half – yes half – of Nvidia’s revenue last quarter and their ambition to build their own chips is one of the major risks to Nvidia’s revenue growth. Listen to find out more!

While the dinosaur coins such as XRP are going through the roof, BTC just cracked 100k! Finally moon? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Preview 00:54 Bitcoin 05:23 Ethereum / Altcoins 07:27 Ripple 08:59 Chainlink 10:54 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

South Korea briefly stole the light from the French political chaos after President Yoon suddenly imposed the martial law yesterday only to lift it a few hours later. The Korean won and the stocks fell, and the volatility in broader Asian markets and cryptocurrencies was higher, but the impact remained limited, the US and European futures are set for a positive open and France could safely come back to the front of the scene with lawmakers preparing to hold a no-confidence vote today and to take Barnier’s government down. In the US, sentiment remains cheerful and cozy at the start of December. The latest figures released yesterday showed that the job openings in October rose more than expected by analysts. Optimism rose too, though less than expected. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly said that there is no certainty that the Fed will cut the rates this month, but that, the option remains on the table. In energy, US crude rallied more than 2.5% to above $70pb on news that the US will impose more restrictions on the Iranian oil exports and on chatter that OPEC is getting closer to delaying its plans to restore production by another 3 months. Listen to find out more!

French political chaos sat on the headlines at the start of the week. The spread between the 10-year French and German yields jumped to 87bp – the highest since the euro debt crisis of a decade ago, and could well spike above the 100bp mark if the French political crisis is not contained. The widening French-German yield spread hammered the single currency on Monday. The EURUSD sharply dropped to 1.0460. Meanwhile, Stellantis CEO quit yesterday on tumbling sales and profit causing the shares to drop more than 6%, and around 66’000 VW workers abandoned their posts on failure to agree how to slash costs to avoid factory closures. Selloff in VW shares remained curiously limited. A completely different atmosphere in the US: The S&P500 printed this year’s 54th record high on Monday, as record Black Friday sales came as another proof that Americans continue to spend. source of revenue and give Intel a competitive advantage within the ‘America First’ narrative In the FX, the USD index rose ahead of US jobs data, crude oil tested the $70pb resistance ahead of the OPEC’s Dec5th decision. Listen to find out more!

December doesn’t arrive with chocolate and flowers to Europe. First, Stellantis CEO resigns on weaker sales and tumbling profits. Second, VW workers are expected to walk out as early as today, because their labour leaders couldn’t reach an agreement on how to reduce costs to prevent factory closures. And finally, the French political scene remains messy with the far-right party Marine Le Pen threatening to team up with the leftist and take down Michel Barnier’s government by Wednesday if he doesn’t come up with a less strict budget plan. The euro is under pressure this morning. In Japan, the news are not brighter. Nissan’s CFO decided to step down as well and the Japanese manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since March. The news gives the USDJPY a good reason to rebound back above the 150 level this morning. The downside pressure on euro and the yen is giving a boost to the US dollar early this week. The US dollar index is up and above the 106 this morning after retracing a part of its recent gains last week. Attention will be on US jobs data and OPEC decision this week! Listen to find out more!

With US markets paused for the Thanksgiving break, France was at the heart of the attention yesterday. The political drama, there, only got worst as Michel Barnier gave concessions to Marine Le Pen – who only asked more of them. The French 10-year yield eased after sitting at the same height than the Greek equivalent while CAC 40 was in a better mood. But the political uncertainties in France will certainly keep volatility high across French-denominated assets into the year end. For the euro, we don’t yet see a major impact of French political shenanigans, but the French touch is not necessarily a positive one. The EURUSD swung between gains and losses yesterday, caught between mixed inflation data from EZ countries. Speaking of inflation, higher-than-expected Tokyo inflation backed the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would hike rates in the December meeting and shortly pushed the USDJPY below the 150 mark. In energy, there is hesitation about what to do at the current levels. The latest news suggests that OPEC+ will delay its decision time from Sunday to December 5th. It appears that the cartel members need more time to discuss about what to do about their plans to restore production. Listen to find out more!

Appetite on Wednesday was limited on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In the US, the crowded economic data brought no surprises. The Federal Reserve (Fed) December cut expectations strengthened, the US yields and the dollar retreated while appetite in major US indices remained limited. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 extended losses, and not only because of Trump’s tariff threats, but also on the rising unease in French politics, where Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader - who gained ground in the latest elections, remember? – threatened Michel Barnier’s administration – that’s doing its best to control the country’s deteriorating finances and deficit – that she would bring his government down with a no-confidence vote if he doesn’t respect their budget demands. Thank God, the growing French headache remains localized, for now. The EURUSD rebounded well past the 1.05 level – and even advanced near 1.0590 yesterday, following the other majors up against a broadly weakened US dollar. The worsening political scene in France and the widening yield gap between France and Germany, could however limit the single currency’s upside potential along with clashing opinions from the European Central Bank (ECB) members about how fast the bank should cut rates. Listen to find out more!

While Bitcoin is doing its well deserved rest from pumping, people are asking whether with the SEC chair change coins such as IMX might be undervalued due to the Wells Notice from the SEC... 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:38 Bitcoin 04:30 Ethereum 06:26 Solana 08:23 Immutable X 09:58 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

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Even though Donald Trump’s tariff threats on China, Mexico and Canada didn’t concern Europe, the feeling in Europe was far from being comfortable yesterday. The word tariff gives cold chills especially to the European carmakers that already found themselves in crossfire with China. As such, Stellantis lost more than 5% yesterday while Volkswagen tanked another 2.76%. In the US, the market mood was better. Trump’s tariff threat, the rising inflation expectations as a result of them, and the cautious approach for further rate cuts from the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes were outweighed by ceasefire news from the Middle East. Crude oil consolidated and extended losses below the $70pb level on ceasefire news, while news that OPEC+ is considering delaying the oil production restart beyond January has certainly tamed the selling pressure. In the FX, the US dollar eased yesterday as investors priced out a part of the geopolitical risks, while appetite in gold remained intact. The kiwi rallied against the greenback today following a widely expected 50bp cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). But the RBNZ predicted that the average cash rate falling to 3.83% by the middle of next year, suggesting that the policymakers, there, will move to a more gradual rate-cutting path moving forward. The latter could open the door for dipbuying opportunities for a greatly weakened kiwi over the past year. Listen to find out more!

Yesterday offered a moment of relief for some investors amid the Trump euphoria sweeping through the markets. The nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary resonated well across investment communities as the man – who runs a macro hedge fund and backs Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts – is seen a ‘measured choice’ for the economy and financial markets, as he would tame spending and adopt a ‘gradual’ approach to imposing tariffs. But, wait. Investors didn’t have time to fully enjoy the news as Trump said that the US will impose extra 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% levies on all products from Mexico and Canada. Mood in Asia was less cheery. The Mexican peso took a hit, and the USDCAD shortly rallied to 1.4180, hit by the falling oil prices as well, and traded at a level last seen in April 2020. Elsewhere, US crude slipped below the $70pb level on rising hope of a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, but nat gas futures remain under the positive pressure of tense setup with Russia. Today, investors will lean on the FOMC minutes to find any hints of what the Federal Reserve (Fed) could do next. Listen to find out more!

Last week was marked by an improved sentiment in the US, but not so much in Europe. The US equities had a strong week: the S&P500 rallied 1.68% over the week, Nasdaq 100 gained 1.87% - and that despite Nvidia that finally closed the week flat as the earnings disappointment kicked in with a small delay and costed the company a more than 3% retreat on Friday. The Dow Jones rallied nearly 2%, while the small caps rallied jumped nearly 4.5% on further rush to Trump trades. SPDR’s energy and financial ETFs hit a record high, the US dollar index rallied to the highest levels in two years and of course, Bitcoin – the ultimate Trump trade - flirted with the $100’000 psychological mark and consolidated gains slightly below that level during the weekend. In Europe, things looked much less encouraging. First of all, the Stoxx 600 index tipped a toe below the 500 mark at the start of the week, and even though Friday ended on a positive note, the move was driven by a ‘bad news is good news’ type of motivation. Today, the European companies trade with a 40% discount on their S&P500 peers in terms of PE valuations. But the ECB alone could hardly give the European businesses a strong basis to thrive in the long term. Europe needs much more than monetary support to get back on its feet. Listen to find out more!

Moodiness due to a lack of a strong post-earnings rally from Nvidia remained short-lived. The shares fell well short of the 8-10% rally that the market was prepared for, and posted a meagre 0.53% rise post earnings. Nvidia couldn’t offer the major US indices a fresh record, as Big Tech companies were mostly sold yesterday. Google lost 4.5% on Department of Justice’s demand to sell Chrome. But both the S&P500 and Nasdaq gained the day after the Nvidia earnings, and consolidate near ATH levels. In the FX and commodities, the US dollar, oil and gas prices are extending rally amid the mounting geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. The US dollar’s recent rise pushed the EURUSD down the 1.05 cliff yesterday, and Cable extended losses below the 1.26 mark. Yet the solid appreciation of the US dollar, combined to rising energy prices, will likely ring the alarm bell among the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) doves, and get them to tame their dovish expectations. The latter will probably support a recovery in both the euro and sterling once the geopolitical dusts settles. Current levels are more interesting for chasing dip buying opportunities than playing with the bears. Listen to find out more!

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Nvidia announced another very strong quarter after the bell. They beat earnings expectations and forecasts but two flags have emerged: pressure on profit margins and high concentration of big customers. Nvidia fell 2.5% in the afterhours trading. Failure to break a record post-earnings, and the rising worries regarding margins and competition could lead to a certain profit taking over the next few sessions. As such, the S&P500 and Nasdaq futures are in the red this morning, and we could see a deeper retracement from the ATH levels with the lack of support from Nvidia earnings. Elsewhere, the hawkish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to give support to the US dollar but the rising hawkishness from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will likely slow and potentially reverse the euro and sterling’s selloff against the greenback. Listen to find out more!

Geopolitical tensions were on the headlines yesterday after Ukraine fired its first US missile to Russia after having received the green light from the White House following a two-year wait to do so. Gold and treasuries gained and crude oil jumped but remained short of testing the $70pb offers. Today, sentiment is better and focus shifts to Nvidia earnings due today, after the closing bell. The expectations are huge, the valuations are high as well. Nvidia could gain or lose around 8-10% in the aftermath of the earning and trigger a 1-2% rally or selloff in the S&P500. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a bullish note, as the recovery in US treasuries, and the retreat in US yields help boost appetite in major US indices. Tesla gained on news that there could be an accelerated framework for fully self-driving cars, while Nvidia weakened on reports that Blackwell chips overheat. In currencies, the US dollar weakened and gave room to other majors to breath, but the pullback could be short-lived. In energy, US crude posted a 3% rally yesterday, but the bulls could find the $70pb offers hard to clear, as the amply global supply / weak global demand outlook remains supportive of the bears. Solid resistance is eyes between $70/72pb range. Listen to find out more!

US retail sales and the inflation data came in higher than expected last week, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is strong enough and that there is no urge for rushing to rate cuts. The US yields and the dollar rallied, equities gave back gains. This week, the economic calendar is light, and attention shifts to big US retailer and Nvidia earnings! Listen to find out more!

Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jerome Powell, who leads a team that started cutting the interest rates with a 50bp point in September by fear that the US jobs market would deteriorate quickly and added another layer of 25bp cut last week, said that ‘the economy is not sending any signals that [they] need to be in hurry to lower the rates’. Maybe, the plans have changed after Trump’s election on rising inflation risks due to pro-growth policies and tariffs. US yields and the US dollar continue to push higher, major peers test important technical levels, crude oil remains under pressure, while US indices start worrying about a hawkish readjustment in Fed expectations. Listen to find out more!

US inflation came in parallel to expectations, confirming that headline inflation in the US stagnated near 0.3% level for a third month, the yearly figure rebounded from 2.4% to 2.6% as expected, while core inflation remained stuck at 3.3%. The short-end of the US yield curve eased on expectation of further Federal Reserve (Fed) cut in December, but the long-end is pushing higher on bets that inflation won’t ease to 2% if the Fed cuts defying the inflationary Trump policies. The US dollar pushes higher, the US dollar is now in or near the overbought territory against most majors. Big caps consolidate, small caps come under pressure, while the European indices don’t take advantage of weaker euro. In energy, oil made a short attempt to the upside yesterday on a surprise decline in US oil inventories last week, but gains remain limited. Numerous failures to clear the $72.85pb Fibonacci resistance keeps the market in the hands of the bears, with the ambition to pish the price of a barrel to $65pb target. Listen to find out more!

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The US yields pushed higher and the dollar rally gained further momentum yesterday, as investors continued to surf on the idea that Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would boost inflation in the US and limit the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) capacity to ease the monetary policy as much as previously anticipated. All eyes are on the US inflation data, today. October figures won’t tell much about the Trump effect on consumer prices, but the higher the numbers, the lower the December cut expectations. And the latter is supportive of the US dollar. In energy, the barrel of US crude is testing the $68pb offers to the downside on sluggish Chinese, global demand, ample supply from non-OPEC countries, and the absence of fresh tensions from the Middle East. Add to that the fact that OPEC cut its oil demand forecast for fourth consecutive month this week, and you have a comfortably bearish picture in crude oil. Sentiment is mixed for oil stocks, however, which feel the comfort of oil-friendly Trump taking over the reins of the country. Listen to find out more!

Bitcoin added another 10% yesterday and came just shy of the $90K per coin, while Ethereum flirted with the $3400 mark. Tesla surged another 10%. In the traditional currencies, the US dollar index is pushing higher along with the US yields on expectation that Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would lead to higher inflation and softer-than-otherwise policy easing from the Federal Reserve. That’s in contrast with the worsening economic and political outlook for the Eurozone, with Germany preparing for a snap election on government’s inability to tackle the financial difficulties and revive growth. The euro tanked to 1.0628 against the US dollar, and to 0.8260 against the pound yesterday. In Japan, the likelihood of further policy normalization is melting by the day as one of the new PM Ishiba’s closest allies, Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa, attended the BoJ meeting for the first time and he said that it’s important for the BoJ to continue monetary easing to ensure a complete end of deflation. In energy, the barrel of US crude kicked off the week on a negative note, while the Aussie and Loonie are bearing the brunt of strong dollar and sluggish China. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on a very positive note for the US equity markets. All major indices rallied, the S&P500 notched its best week in more than a year and toped the 6000 level for the first time in history. During the weekend, the Trump optimism continued to show in Bitcoin prices. The price of a coin spiked past the $81’000 level, and the next natural target on the grill is the $100’000 psychological level. Elsewhere, worries mount: FTSE 100 and the European Stoxx 600 index both closed last week below the 200-DMA on worries about a heated international trade environment and the Chinese leg of the story is much less dreamy, too. Big banks are back to cutting their growth forecasts for China. Crude oil and iron ore are under a renewed pressure since Friday. Inside FX, the euro and sterling are giving back field against a broadly stronger US dollar. But the Bank of England’s (BoE) less dovish stance after the UK budget is countered by a broad-based dollar strength, combined with more dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations due to Trump threat drives the EURGBP lower. Listen to find out more!