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Sometimes, the truth is hard to say—and even harder to hear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced another 25bp cut as widely expected and priced in, but hinted that there will be just about two rate cuts throughout next year. The market reaction was very aggressive, of course. The US yields and the dollar jumped, the S&P500 sold off nearly 3%. The Fed probably spoiled this year’s Santa rally, as its hawkish shift could trigger a deeper correction across US equity markets. In commodities, oil sold off and gold tipped a toe below the $2600 per ounce and below its 100-DMA. Higher US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold, yet an accelerated selloff and a prolonged weakness in equity markets could drive capital toward the safety of the yellow metal. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrained from announcing a rate cut and the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to do nothing, too. Listen to find out more!

While the FED cut rates, the entire crypto market is taking a breather. Why the correction and why is Solana struggling? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:43 Bitcoin 04:08 Aave 04:35 Charts 07:31 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Canada joined the global political gloom. The sudden resignation of the finance minister on Monday started raising questions about Trudeau’s leadership as politicians there try to find ways to deal with economic slowdown topped by Trump’s tariff threats. A bit lower on the map, Brazil intervened to stop the bleeding of the real after the currency tanked more than 20% against the greenback to an all-time-low this year. Ballooning debt and deficit are taking a toll on the country’s finances. In France, the National Assembly just adopted a stopgap budget bill to avoid a government shutdown from January, while Germany announced an early election in February next year, on Monday. In the US, investors were also worried but for a different reason: the retail sales, there, has again been higher than expected by analysts, again pointed at resilient consumer spending and again highlighted the needlessness of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) today. The Fed will announce a 25bp cut no matter what, but the accompanying statement and the dot plot will be more important as investors try to understand whether the Fed sees the mismatch between the data and expectations, and their policy. In the UK, sterling is softer despite strong jobs and in-line inflation data, on worries that the UK’s economy could slow down before it improves – of the Bank of England (BoE) doesn’t give the necessary support. Listen to find out more!

‘Europe appears to be coming apart one nation at a time’, writes Bloomberg to summarize the complicated politics of the old continent. After the French snap election led to a divided government and an ungovernable France since summer, German politicians gave a no-confidence verdict for the three-way ruling party of Germany, paving the way for an early election in February – about 7 months earlier than scheduled. The DAX index retreated yesterday, but from near an ATH level. The political shenanigans didn’t prevent the index from rallying above the 20’000 this month. Its technology heavy weights, like SAP and Siemens, followed their American peers to the north, and somehow hid the misery of the carmakers. But the Stoxx 600 appears to be peaking ahead of what’s shaping up to be a chaotic Christmas in Europe, while the US continues to revel in the joys of life. There, the atmosphere is completely different. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to announce an additional 25bp cut that the country doesn’t necessarily need on top of a 75bp cut delivered since September. The S&P500 was up yesterday, not to a record – but near, Nasdaq 100 however advanced to a fresh record high, with Broadcom gaining another 11% yesterday – on top of the 24% added on Friday post-earnings on their juicy forecast for custom AI chips. Listen to find out more!

China’s latest efforts to convince investors that it will boost its economy with great stimulus measures had the same reaction than the previous ones: disappointment. The Chinese yields nosedive but the shares don’t react. Except one bright spot: Xiaomi. Elsewhere, in Korea, the political turmoil continues to weigh on sentiment, while in France, the relief on the appointment of Francois Bayrou – another very established name in French politics – to replace Barnier as the new French PM was clouded by Moody’s downgrading the French credit rating to Aa3 – three levels below the top. Nearby, German politicians will hold a confidence vote to pave the way for a February snap election. So, the bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) must do the heavy lifting remains strong after last week’s cautious 25bp cut. Across the Channe, Cable is slightly better bid this morning, while the USDJPY is gaining traction to the upside. Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) could leave the rates unchanged, but there is a chance that the BoJ opts to hike. In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to trim its rates by another 25bp when it meets this week. The S&P500 closed last week near record while Nasdaq advanced to a fresh record high on Friday. This time, it was Broadcom’s turn to shine. The company’s stock price jumped 24% to a record high on Friday after announcing better-than-expected earnings and saying that it expects a booming demand for their custom-made AI chips. Listen to find out more!

This week has been rich in terms of interest rate cuts from major central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t cut its rates but gave an unexpectedly dovish statement, citing that the RBA officials are turning more confident that inflation is on path toward their policy goal. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a second 50bp cut in a row, following three 25bp cuts before that. Then, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a 50bp cut – it was not the base case scenario but it was not a surprise, either. The European Central Bank (ECB) also cut, but the European officials decided to go ahead with a cautious 25bp cut before Xmas, and Lagarde didn’t say much about what the ECB would do in the next meetings. The EURUSD fell, however, but the selloff was mostly explained by a higher-than-expected US PPI print that landed just between the ECB decision and Lagarde’s press conference. As such, the dollar looks stronger this Friday than it looked last Friday. Listen to find out more!

The probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December jumped to nearly 100% yesterday, after the US CPI update came in line with expectations. Major indices rally with joy. Technology stocks led gains, but enthusiasm was not only backed by the Fed cut expectations. It was also backed by tech related news. Google for example jumped nearly 5.5% to a record high on news that the company made a ‘major development’ in quantum computing using its Willow quantum chip while Broadcom – that’s due to announce earnings today - flirted with ATH yesterday on news that they are developing an AI chip with Apple. In Europe, the news are much less future-oriented and exciting, to be honest. But the Stoxx 600 is better bid on hope that the European Central Bank (ECB) will step up its support to the economy. In this context, the ECB is expected to deliver another 25bp cut at today’s meeting, and maybe more! Other than the ECB, the BoC cut by 50bp yesterday, and the SNB could opt for 50bp to counter the franc’s appreciation. Listen to find out more!

How scary is quantum computing for Bitcoin really? Will we still knock over the 100k barrier? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:29 Bitcoin 04:53 Ethereum 08:01 Solana 08:50 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

In today’s special episode of Market Talk, we’re diving deep into one of the most fascinating tools in technical analysis: the Fibonacci retracement. Learn how this popular indicator helps identify key support and resistance levels, spot potential trend reversals, and guide your trading strategy with confidence. We’ll also explore the golden ratio’s surprising connections to nature and why its popularity makes it a go-to tool for traders worldwide. Using practical examples like EURUSD and oil, I’ll show you how to apply Fibonacci levels effectively—whether you’re a day trader or focusing on medium-term trends. Listen to find out more!

Sentiment in Chinese equities reversed suddenly to a significantly more bullish state after the Politburo – which is the highest-decision making bodies within the Communist Party – pledged to embrace a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025. Now, all eyes are on the Central Economic Work Conference, where the Chinese officials will discuss behind closed doors and ideally complement the monetary support with juicy fiscal support. It’s tempting to buy Chinese assets at significant discount, but don’t forget that 2024 was marked by stimulus hints that led to a market rally, but resulted in disappointing stimulus measures and a selloff. In other news, Chinese companies reportedly cut off key supplies to the US and Europe necessary to build unmanned aerial vehicles for example, and the country opened a probe into Nvidia accusing the company for breaking their antimonopoly laws in the acquisition of Mellanox Technologies back in 2020. More of China: Gold is up after a few stagnant weeks on news that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed buying gold after a 6-month pause – certainly to back a looser monetary policy and maybe to decrease exposure to US treasuries. Crude oil, on the other hand, remained capped into the $69pb level at yesterday’s rally fueled by Syrian uncertainty and hopes of Chinese stimulus. Listen to find out more!

Bashar al-Assad's regime fell over the weekend, Korean lawmakers prepare another impeachment attempt against their President who narrowly avoided removal after briefly imposing martial law last week, and France remains without a new presidential nominee. As such, the US dollar is stronger on safety demand and crude oil is better bid on renewed political uncertainty in the Middle East. But the Syrian news will unlikely reverse the bearish oil trend, and the rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations are fundamentally supportive of a softer US dollar. This week’s US CPI data will be the last piece of the puzzle before the Fed meets next week. The CPI number is expected to print a small uptick in November, but should not compromise a December Fed cut. January however will probably be a close call. Elsewhere, the week will be packed with central bank decision. The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce their latest policy verdict throughout this week and all – except the RBA – are expected to lower their rates. Listen to find out more!

Against all odds, yesterday ended up being a good day – at least for investors who have exposure to the French assets. The French government fell and the political uncertainty shifted to a higher gear yet, the French 10-year yield eased, the euro gained, and the CAC 40 hasn’t had such a good week since September. The US dollar index came swiftly down yesterday on the back of a higher-than-expected jobless claims number last week. Today, the official jobs data is expected to print a strong NFP number – of around 200K new nonfarm job additions for November. But investors are ready to disregard any strength on that front given that last month’s figure will be impacted by the hurricanes and strikes of the month before. US jobs data in line with expectations – or ideally softer than expected – should lead to a further dollar depreciation into the weekly closing bell. In energy, OPEC announcement didn’t enhance appetite among the bulls. In equities, the week was painted in green on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Listen to find out more!

The French government just collapsed, but the euro gains. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is in a remarkably good shape, but the US dollar retreats, and OPEC is preparing to delay its production restoration plans today, but oil bears remain in charge. Away from these problems, the S&P500 just printed its 56th record high this year and Nasdaq 100 jumped to a fresh ATH. Amazon advanced to a fresh record as news that Amazon is building a supercomputer powered by hundreds of thousands of its own Trainium chips to train Anthropic AI models wet investors’ appetite. The move could help Amazon cut reliance on pricey Nvidia chips and do the same for its Big Tech buddies. The rumour has it, Apple is on board as a customer. Do Nvidia investors worry about it? Not for now. The shares jumped 3.5% yesterday to past $145 per share. But it’s worth keeping an eye on this space because the Big Tech stood for half – yes half – of Nvidia’s revenue last quarter and their ambition to build their own chips is one of the major risks to Nvidia’s revenue growth. Listen to find out more!

While the dinosaur coins such as XRP are going through the roof, BTC just cracked 100k! Finally moon? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Preview 00:54 Bitcoin 05:23 Ethereum / Altcoins 07:27 Ripple 08:59 Chainlink 10:54 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

South Korea briefly stole the light from the French political chaos after President Yoon suddenly imposed the martial law yesterday only to lift it a few hours later. The Korean won and the stocks fell, and the volatility in broader Asian markets and cryptocurrencies was higher, but the impact remained limited, the US and European futures are set for a positive open and France could safely come back to the front of the scene with lawmakers preparing to hold a no-confidence vote today and to take Barnier’s government down. In the US, sentiment remains cheerful and cozy at the start of December. The latest figures released yesterday showed that the job openings in October rose more than expected by analysts. Optimism rose too, though less than expected. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly said that there is no certainty that the Fed will cut the rates this month, but that, the option remains on the table. In energy, US crude rallied more than 2.5% to above $70pb on news that the US will impose more restrictions on the Iranian oil exports and on chatter that OPEC is getting closer to delaying its plans to restore production by another 3 months. Listen to find out more!

French political chaos sat on the headlines at the start of the week. The spread between the 10-year French and German yields jumped to 87bp – the highest since the euro debt crisis of a decade ago, and could well spike above the 100bp mark if the French political crisis is not contained. The widening French-German yield spread hammered the single currency on Monday. The EURUSD sharply dropped to 1.0460. Meanwhile, Stellantis CEO quit yesterday on tumbling sales and profit causing the shares to drop more than 6%, and around 66’000 VW workers abandoned their posts on failure to agree how to slash costs to avoid factory closures. Selloff in VW shares remained curiously limited. A completely different atmosphere in the US: The S&P500 printed this year’s 54th record high on Monday, as record Black Friday sales came as another proof that Americans continue to spend. source of revenue and give Intel a competitive advantage within the ‘America First’ narrative In the FX, the USD index rose ahead of US jobs data, crude oil tested the $70pb resistance ahead of the OPEC’s Dec5th decision. Listen to find out more!

December doesn’t arrive with chocolate and flowers to Europe. First, Stellantis CEO resigns on weaker sales and tumbling profits. Second, VW workers are expected to walk out as early as today, because their labour leaders couldn’t reach an agreement on how to reduce costs to prevent factory closures. And finally, the French political scene remains messy with the far-right party Marine Le Pen threatening to team up with the leftist and take down Michel Barnier’s government by Wednesday if he doesn’t come up with a less strict budget plan. The euro is under pressure this morning. In Japan, the news are not brighter. Nissan’s CFO decided to step down as well and the Japanese manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since March. The news gives the USDJPY a good reason to rebound back above the 150 level this morning. The downside pressure on euro and the yen is giving a boost to the US dollar early this week. The US dollar index is up and above the 106 this morning after retracing a part of its recent gains last week. Attention will be on US jobs data and OPEC decision this week! Listen to find out more!

With US markets paused for the Thanksgiving break, France was at the heart of the attention yesterday. The political drama, there, only got worst as Michel Barnier gave concessions to Marine Le Pen – who only asked more of them. The French 10-year yield eased after sitting at the same height than the Greek equivalent while CAC 40 was in a better mood. But the political uncertainties in France will certainly keep volatility high across French-denominated assets into the year end. For the euro, we don’t yet see a major impact of French political shenanigans, but the French touch is not necessarily a positive one. The EURUSD swung between gains and losses yesterday, caught between mixed inflation data from EZ countries. Speaking of inflation, higher-than-expected Tokyo inflation backed the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would hike rates in the December meeting and shortly pushed the USDJPY below the 150 mark. In energy, there is hesitation about what to do at the current levels. The latest news suggests that OPEC+ will delay its decision time from Sunday to December 5th. It appears that the cartel members need more time to discuss about what to do about their plans to restore production. Listen to find out more!

Appetite on Wednesday was limited on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In the US, the crowded economic data brought no surprises. The Federal Reserve (Fed) December cut expectations strengthened, the US yields and the dollar retreated while appetite in major US indices remained limited. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 extended losses, and not only because of Trump’s tariff threats, but also on the rising unease in French politics, where Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader - who gained ground in the latest elections, remember? – threatened Michel Barnier’s administration – that’s doing its best to control the country’s deteriorating finances and deficit – that she would bring his government down with a no-confidence vote if he doesn’t respect their budget demands. Thank God, the growing French headache remains localized, for now. The EURUSD rebounded well past the 1.05 level – and even advanced near 1.0590 yesterday, following the other majors up against a broadly weakened US dollar. The worsening political scene in France and the widening yield gap between France and Germany, could however limit the single currency’s upside potential along with clashing opinions from the European Central Bank (ECB) members about how fast the bank should cut rates. Listen to find out more!

While Bitcoin is doing its well deserved rest from pumping, people are asking whether with the SEC chair change coins such as IMX might be undervalued due to the Wells Notice from the SEC... 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:38 Bitcoin 04:30 Ethereum 06:26 Solana 08:23 Immutable X 09:58 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Nachdem eine nötige Bitcoin Korrektur eingesetzt hat, fragen sich heute viele ob die SEC angeklagten Projekte wie Immutable evtl. unterbewertet sind - wir schauen warum! 00:00 Intro 00:22 Vorschau 00:44 Bitcoin 04:05 Ethereum 05:57 Solana 07:45 Immutable X 09:07 Verabschiedung #krypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Lernen Sie die Grundlagen des Handels in Ihrem eigenen Tempo mit dem Swissquote Education Center. Entdecken Sie unsere Online-Kurse, Webinare und eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Entdecken Sie unsere Marke und Philosophie: https://swq.ch/wq Erfahren Sie mehr über unsere Mitarbeiter: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Bleiben Sie mit uns in Verbindung: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Even though Donald Trump’s tariff threats on China, Mexico and Canada didn’t concern Europe, the feeling in Europe was far from being comfortable yesterday. The word tariff gives cold chills especially to the European carmakers that already found themselves in crossfire with China. As such, Stellantis lost more than 5% yesterday while Volkswagen tanked another 2.76%. In the US, the market mood was better. Trump’s tariff threat, the rising inflation expectations as a result of them, and the cautious approach for further rate cuts from the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes were outweighed by ceasefire news from the Middle East. Crude oil consolidated and extended losses below the $70pb level on ceasefire news, while news that OPEC+ is considering delaying the oil production restart beyond January has certainly tamed the selling pressure. In the FX, the US dollar eased yesterday as investors priced out a part of the geopolitical risks, while appetite in gold remained intact. The kiwi rallied against the greenback today following a widely expected 50bp cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). But the RBNZ predicted that the average cash rate falling to 3.83% by the middle of next year, suggesting that the policymakers, there, will move to a more gradual rate-cutting path moving forward. The latter could open the door for dipbuying opportunities for a greatly weakened kiwi over the past year. Listen to find out more!

Yesterday offered a moment of relief for some investors amid the Trump euphoria sweeping through the markets. The nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary resonated well across investment communities as the man – who runs a macro hedge fund and backs Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts – is seen a ‘measured choice’ for the economy and financial markets, as he would tame spending and adopt a ‘gradual’ approach to imposing tariffs. But, wait. Investors didn’t have time to fully enjoy the news as Trump said that the US will impose extra 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% levies on all products from Mexico and Canada. Mood in Asia was less cheery. The Mexican peso took a hit, and the USDCAD shortly rallied to 1.4180, hit by the falling oil prices as well, and traded at a level last seen in April 2020. Elsewhere, US crude slipped below the $70pb level on rising hope of a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, but nat gas futures remain under the positive pressure of tense setup with Russia. Today, investors will lean on the FOMC minutes to find any hints of what the Federal Reserve (Fed) could do next. Listen to find out more!

Last week was marked by an improved sentiment in the US, but not so much in Europe. The US equities had a strong week: the S&P500 rallied 1.68% over the week, Nasdaq 100 gained 1.87% - and that despite Nvidia that finally closed the week flat as the earnings disappointment kicked in with a small delay and costed the company a more than 3% retreat on Friday. The Dow Jones rallied nearly 2%, while the small caps rallied jumped nearly 4.5% on further rush to Trump trades. SPDR’s energy and financial ETFs hit a record high, the US dollar index rallied to the highest levels in two years and of course, Bitcoin – the ultimate Trump trade - flirted with the $100’000 psychological mark and consolidated gains slightly below that level during the weekend. In Europe, things looked much less encouraging. First of all, the Stoxx 600 index tipped a toe below the 500 mark at the start of the week, and even though Friday ended on a positive note, the move was driven by a ‘bad news is good news’ type of motivation. Today, the European companies trade with a 40% discount on their S&P500 peers in terms of PE valuations. But the ECB alone could hardly give the European businesses a strong basis to thrive in the long term. Europe needs much more than monetary support to get back on its feet. Listen to find out more!

Moodiness due to a lack of a strong post-earnings rally from Nvidia remained short-lived. The shares fell well short of the 8-10% rally that the market was prepared for, and posted a meagre 0.53% rise post earnings. Nvidia couldn’t offer the major US indices a fresh record, as Big Tech companies were mostly sold yesterday. Google lost 4.5% on Department of Justice’s demand to sell Chrome. But both the S&P500 and Nasdaq gained the day after the Nvidia earnings, and consolidate near ATH levels. In the FX and commodities, the US dollar, oil and gas prices are extending rally amid the mounting geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. The US dollar’s recent rise pushed the EURUSD down the 1.05 cliff yesterday, and Cable extended losses below the 1.26 mark. Yet the solid appreciation of the US dollar, combined to rising energy prices, will likely ring the alarm bell among the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) doves, and get them to tame their dovish expectations. The latter will probably support a recovery in both the euro and sterling once the geopolitical dusts settles. Current levels are more interesting for chasing dip buying opportunities than playing with the bears. Listen to find out more!

While the dino coins are waking up, BTC is printing ATHs close to 100k! 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:40 Bitcoin 02:57 Solana 05:34 Dinosaur Coins Cardano & Ripple 07:33 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Nvidia announced another very strong quarter after the bell. They beat earnings expectations and forecasts but two flags have emerged: pressure on profit margins and high concentration of big customers. Nvidia fell 2.5% in the afterhours trading. Failure to break a record post-earnings, and the rising worries regarding margins and competition could lead to a certain profit taking over the next few sessions. As such, the S&P500 and Nasdaq futures are in the red this morning, and we could see a deeper retracement from the ATH levels with the lack of support from Nvidia earnings. Elsewhere, the hawkish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to give support to the US dollar but the rising hawkishness from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will likely slow and potentially reverse the euro and sterling’s selloff against the greenback. Listen to find out more!

Geopolitical tensions were on the headlines yesterday after Ukraine fired its first US missile to Russia after having received the green light from the White House following a two-year wait to do so. Gold and treasuries gained and crude oil jumped but remained short of testing the $70pb offers. Today, sentiment is better and focus shifts to Nvidia earnings due today, after the closing bell. The expectations are huge, the valuations are high as well. Nvidia could gain or lose around 8-10% in the aftermath of the earning and trigger a 1-2% rally or selloff in the S&P500. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a bullish note, as the recovery in US treasuries, and the retreat in US yields help boost appetite in major US indices. Tesla gained on news that there could be an accelerated framework for fully self-driving cars, while Nvidia weakened on reports that Blackwell chips overheat. In currencies, the US dollar weakened and gave room to other majors to breath, but the pullback could be short-lived. In energy, US crude posted a 3% rally yesterday, but the bulls could find the $70pb offers hard to clear, as the amply global supply / weak global demand outlook remains supportive of the bears. Solid resistance is eyes between $70/72pb range. Listen to find out more!

US retail sales and the inflation data came in higher than expected last week, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is strong enough and that there is no urge for rushing to rate cuts. The US yields and the dollar rallied, equities gave back gains. This week, the economic calendar is light, and attention shifts to big US retailer and Nvidia earnings! Listen to find out more!

Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jerome Powell, who leads a team that started cutting the interest rates with a 50bp point in September by fear that the US jobs market would deteriorate quickly and added another layer of 25bp cut last week, said that ‘the economy is not sending any signals that [they] need to be in hurry to lower the rates’. Maybe, the plans have changed after Trump’s election on rising inflation risks due to pro-growth policies and tariffs. US yields and the US dollar continue to push higher, major peers test important technical levels, crude oil remains under pressure, while US indices start worrying about a hawkish readjustment in Fed expectations. Listen to find out more!

US inflation came in parallel to expectations, confirming that headline inflation in the US stagnated near 0.3% level for a third month, the yearly figure rebounded from 2.4% to 2.6% as expected, while core inflation remained stuck at 3.3%. The short-end of the US yield curve eased on expectation of further Federal Reserve (Fed) cut in December, but the long-end is pushing higher on bets that inflation won’t ease to 2% if the Fed cuts defying the inflationary Trump policies. The US dollar pushes higher, the US dollar is now in or near the overbought territory against most majors. Big caps consolidate, small caps come under pressure, while the European indices don’t take advantage of weaker euro. In energy, oil made a short attempt to the upside yesterday on a surprise decline in US oil inventories last week, but gains remain limited. Numerous failures to clear the $72.85pb Fibonacci resistance keeps the market in the hands of the bears, with the ambition to pish the price of a barrel to $65pb target. Listen to find out more!

What a performance of Bitcoin after the election of Donald Trump! 00:00 Intro 00:23 Preview 00:35 Bitcoin 06:52 Ethereum 08:49 Solana 10:14 Dogecoin 10:57 Cardano 12:26 The market 13:04 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The US yields pushed higher and the dollar rally gained further momentum yesterday, as investors continued to surf on the idea that Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would boost inflation in the US and limit the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) capacity to ease the monetary policy as much as previously anticipated. All eyes are on the US inflation data, today. October figures won’t tell much about the Trump effect on consumer prices, but the higher the numbers, the lower the December cut expectations. And the latter is supportive of the US dollar. In energy, the barrel of US crude is testing the $68pb offers to the downside on sluggish Chinese, global demand, ample supply from non-OPEC countries, and the absence of fresh tensions from the Middle East. Add to that the fact that OPEC cut its oil demand forecast for fourth consecutive month this week, and you have a comfortably bearish picture in crude oil. Sentiment is mixed for oil stocks, however, which feel the comfort of oil-friendly Trump taking over the reins of the country. Listen to find out more!

Bitcoin added another 10% yesterday and came just shy of the $90K per coin, while Ethereum flirted with the $3400 mark. Tesla surged another 10%. In the traditional currencies, the US dollar index is pushing higher along with the US yields on expectation that Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would lead to higher inflation and softer-than-otherwise policy easing from the Federal Reserve. That’s in contrast with the worsening economic and political outlook for the Eurozone, with Germany preparing for a snap election on government’s inability to tackle the financial difficulties and revive growth. The euro tanked to 1.0628 against the US dollar, and to 0.8260 against the pound yesterday. In Japan, the likelihood of further policy normalization is melting by the day as one of the new PM Ishiba’s closest allies, Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa, attended the BoJ meeting for the first time and he said that it’s important for the BoJ to continue monetary easing to ensure a complete end of deflation. In energy, the barrel of US crude kicked off the week on a negative note, while the Aussie and Loonie are bearing the brunt of strong dollar and sluggish China. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on a very positive note for the US equity markets. All major indices rallied, the S&P500 notched its best week in more than a year and toped the 6000 level for the first time in history. During the weekend, the Trump optimism continued to show in Bitcoin prices. The price of a coin spiked past the $81’000 level, and the next natural target on the grill is the $100’000 psychological level. Elsewhere, worries mount: FTSE 100 and the European Stoxx 600 index both closed last week below the 200-DMA on worries about a heated international trade environment and the Chinese leg of the story is much less dreamy, too. Big banks are back to cutting their growth forecasts for China. Crude oil and iron ore are under a renewed pressure since Friday. Inside FX, the euro and sterling are giving back field against a broadly stronger US dollar. But the Bank of England’s (BoE) less dovish stance after the UK budget is countered by a broad-based dollar strength, combined with more dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations due to Trump threat drives the EURGBP lower. Listen to find out more!

The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered the second rate cut of the year yesterday. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed doesn’t rule ‘out or in’ a rate cut in December, that the US economy is expanding solidly, that conditions in the labour market eased but the unemployment rate remains low, that inflation ‘made progress’ but not a ‘further progress’ – just progress – toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains elevated’, that the Trump policies won’t have an immediate impact on the US fundamentals as they don’t know how much time it will take the new Trump administration to implement them, and that he wouldn’t step down if Trump asked him to do so. But the Fed has no choice but to dance to Trump’s tune, whether it likes it or not. That reality comes with the risk of higher-than-otherwise inflation and deserves careful attention. For now, the probability of another 25bp cut in December is given 71% in the immediate aftermath of the US election and the Fed cut. US yields and the dollar took a breather after the recent rally, and US equities renewed record. Listen to find out more!

The 2024 US election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump, with Republicans positioned to gain control of both houses of Congress. US equities gained, led by banks, energy stocks and small caps, Bitcoin and US dollar strengthened, gold and Swiss franc fell, along with a decline in metals and international equities, and major & EM currencies. While the US election clarity is cheered by some pockets of the market, there are rising uncertainties regarding how the anticipated pro-US growth policies and Trumpflation will resonate in the rest of the world, and at the Fed. In this new context (as says Emmanuel Macron), the Bank of England (BoE) has the hard task to deliver its first policy decision post-Trump. The BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bp today. The markets price in two more rate cuts by the end of next year, and gives a 35% chance for a third one. But the UK budget and the Trump win could complicate the plans. Listen to find out more!

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We’re on the cusp of the US election results. They’re starting to trickle in, pointing toward a more favourable outcome for the Republicans and Donald Trump. As a result, the so-called ‘Trump trade’ is in full swing this morning. The US yields are pushing higher, Bitcoin hits record, the US dollar is stronger against most currencies (even against gold and Swiss franc), and US equity futures advance while the European investors don’t smile. In earnings, Palantir hit record high on strong earnings and forecast on AI demand, semiconductors surfed on the news, while Saudi Aramco’s weak earnings get the OPEC-encouraged bulls to scratch their heads regarding Saudi’s future commitment to production cuts. That, along with Trump lead is weighing on oil prices this morning. Listen to find out more!

The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today’s US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight – and even a contested outcome. As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it’s the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr, Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment. But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors... Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump’s presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency. And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P500’s performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000’s tech bubble. Listen to find out more!

On Friday, the US announced a meagre 12K nonfarm job additions last month, the manufacturing and private nonfarm payrolls printed negative numbers. But the bright spot was that unemployment remained steady at 4.1% - suggesting that the NFP number probably took a one-off hit, and the wages continued to grow by 4% on a yearly basis. The market is now convinced that the Fed will announce another 25bp cut when it meets this week. That announcement is due Thursday, as before that we have the US election – on Tuesday. Even though the prediction markets have been in favour of a Trump victory, the CNN poll this morning prints a 48% chance for a Harris win, versus 47% assessed to a Trump victory. The worst possible outcome for the market would be a too close race and a contested outcome. In the short run, a Harris victory could bring relief to treasury and international markets, while a Trump victory could resonate louder – and not necessarily in a good way – for the euro and the European markets, due to the tariff threat. Elsewhere, oil kicked off the week better bid on weekend news that OPEC could delay the planned December increase to oil production by a month – or more – on the back of a persistent selloff in oil prices due to the unfavourable combination of weaker demand and strong output prospects. Listen to find out more!

Könnte Bitcoin noch vor den US Wahlen zum Allzeithoch ansetzen? 00:00 Intro 00:20 Preview 00:45 Bitcoin 04:43 Solana Vs Ethereum 06:51 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Equity selloff in Europe and US extended on Thursday. Technology stocks suffered the biggest losses after Microsoft and Meta were hit by a 6% and a 4% decline respectively. The US futures are slightly in the positive this morning, as Amazon and Intel rallied in the afterhours trading after releasing better-than-expected Q3 results. Today, US’ Big Oil companies will go to the earnings confessional and will certainly post weak numbers due to weak oil and gas prices as did their European peers throughout this week. But, given that the expectations are quite low, beating them is easier. Speaking of oil, the latest news on the wire suggests that Iran is preparing a response to Israel’s latest attack. As such, US crude cleared the $70pb offers yesterday. Elsewhere, gilts and sterling gave a delayed reaction to Wednesday’s budget while the US dollar index eased and tested the 200-DMA to the downside despite the stronger-than-expected core PCE figures, the weakening dovish Fed expectations and the rising yields. The yen strengthened after relatively hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) yesterday and the EURUSD rallied past the 200-DMA with the sight of a stronger than expected CPI update. However, US jobs data and the dollar will ultimately determine whether EURUSD closes the week above or below this level. Listen to find out more!

European and US markets nosedived yesterday on the back of ‘good news is bad news’ and the futures hint at a bearish start to Thursday’s session. Growth on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean came in better than expected, but inflation in the Eurozone ticked higher than expected and gave a positive jolt to the euro. UK budget on the other hand went quite smoothly for the pound. The bad news were countered by the tamed Bank of England (BoE) easing expectations. The BoJ refrained from changing policy today. For now, the US dollar remains bid despite yesterday’s weakness, the 2-year yield spiked higher – as the Fed doves scaled back their Federal Reserve (Fed) cut bets. Investors continue to monitor the jobs data... and earnings! Microsoft and Meta released their Q3 earnings yesterday, after the bell, and the results were good but the forecast and extra spending plans didn’t please, respectively. Apple and Amazon are due to announce earnings after the bell today. Listen to find out more!

Big Tech investors weren’t disappointed on Tuesday, as Alphabet announced better than expected results after the bell, but news at AMD were not enchanting, they gave a lacklustre revenue forecast for the current quarter, a message that raised worries about potentially slowing AI sales. Today, it’s Microsoft and Meta’s turn to reveal how well they did last quarter. The earnings announcements will continue with Apple and Amazon on Thursday – and Exxon and Chevron on Friday. But the latter may be less enthusiastic than the tech peers. BP yesterday announced the slowest profit growth in nearly four years due to weak oil prices. Speaking of oil prices, the barrel of US crude remained under a selling pressure yesterday, and is slightly better bid this morning on the back of a small decline in US oil inventories (API) but trend and momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside and strong resistance is eyed near the $70pb psychological level. On the data front, the first glimpse at the US jobs numbers were soothing for the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves. Today, all eyes are on the US ADP report, Australian and Eurozone inflation numbers and the UK’s budget announcement! Listen to find out more!

Equity markets across Europe and the US began the week on a positive footage, except for oil stocks. Energy companies were hit by a 5% dive in oil prices due to Israel’s targeted attack on Iranian military facilities. Oil giants like Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are expected to announce a combined 12% decline from the Q2 when they release their earnings throughout this week. In the FX, the US dollar consolidates near summer highs. The EURUSD regained the 1.08 handle but without much conviction from the euro bulls, Cable is offered near the 100-DMA, while the yen is slightly better bid this morning and the USDJPY is back below the 153, but the political jitters, there, probably call for an extended Bank of Japan (BoJ) support to the economy. The BoJ will announce its latest verdict on Thursday. But before that, investors’ attention will shift to the US jobs data starting from today with the JOLTS data due today, ADP tomorrow, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the official NFP, wages and unemployment rate due Friday. On the earnings front, Alphabet is the first Magnificent 7 company to go to the earnings confessional this week. Together, the US Big Tech companies are expected to announce around 18% growth in profit and – hopefully for Nvidia – massive increase to their AI spending. Nvidia will not be reporting its results for another month, but AMD results are also due today. Listen to find out more!

Crude oil kicked off the week with a more than 4% slump after Israel attacked the Iranian military facilities over the weekend. Not helping: the Chinese industrial profits fell 3.5% from January to September versus a meagre 0.5% printed a month earlier. In Japan, the market mood is not mixed. The country’s long-ruling coalition lost its majority at the weekend election, rising the political and economic uncertainty in the country and making the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate normalization path blurrier. In Europe, energy and mining-heavy FTSE futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, but the US counterparts are in the positive after having posted a mixed week during which the S&P500 eased 1%. But the selloff mostly hit the value names – because their earnings were less enchanting that the Big Tech’s. This week, 5 of the Magnificent 7 companies and Big Oil are due to report their earnings. The US will post the latest jobs figures, GDP update and the core PCE index, the Eurozone will publish growth and inflation updates as well, while the UK will reveal the October Budget. Listen to find out more!

Major stock indices across Europe and US were up on Thursday, after a few good-looking earnings across both continents including Hermes, Barclays, Unilever and Renault in Europe and Tesla and UPS in the US, gave a smile to investors after three cloudy sessions. Overall, the earnings season is going well in the US, less well in Europe. The latter also matches the macroeconomic news where data is strong in the US, and much less in Europe. The EURUSD remains under pressure of economic demise and rising dovish voices at the European Central Bank (ECB) that fuel the thinking that the ECB could, and should consider lowering rates by bigger chunks. In Japan, the yen is better bid but the USDJPY consolidates gains above the 150 level and the risks remain tilted to the upside into the election weekend, which could see the country’s ruling party lose its majority in the lower parliament for the first time since 2009. The latter would be bad for both the yen and the Japanese stocks. Finally in energy, US crude failed an attempt to clear the 50-DMA. Oil bulls may not be in peak form lately, risks tend to lean to the upside heading into weekends due to the potential for an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Listen to find out more!

The first three sessions of the week haven’t been appetizing as the US political uncertainties, the ongoing geopolitical jitters in the Middle East, and the mounting expectation that Federal Reserve (Fed) would slow down the pace of monetary easing pushed investors to the sidelines. Gold ran from record to record despite the rising US yields, and the broad-based USD appreciation. The EURUSD sold off to 1.0761 as the rate cut bets in the Eurozone remain strong on the back of inflation that seems under control and weak economic and corporate data. The USDJPY cleared the 150 resistance, pulled out the 200-DMA and is trading past the 152 as Cable slipped below the 100-DMA and remains under a selling pressure as the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey says that inflation in Britain is weakening faster than they anticipated. And the Loonie hit the lowest levels against the US dollar since the beginning of August after the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a 50bp cut yesterday, as expected. There will certainly be a correction and a consolidation to the US dollar rally, but unlikely before the US election. In equities, the European stocks remain under the pressure of weak earnings which is not true on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, where Tesla joined the crowd of US companies that announced better-than-expected quarterly results! Listen to find out more!