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The worsening global geopolitical weather keeps investors in a cautious mode, and will likely prevent them from taking too much risk before the weekend. While the news that the US is giving itself two weeks to decide whether to intervene in Iran – which is slightly better than earlier reports suggesting they would go in this weekend – has somehow eased tensions, looming uncertainties pushed US and European equities lower yesterday. I’m not sure the US buying itself time can be interpreted as a sign of de-escalation. Energy, defense and haven stocks remain in demand, while investors will certainly refrain from taking too much risk on their shoulders. Listen to find out more!

‘Someone has to pay,’ said Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at yesterday’s post-decision presser, after the Fed kept rates unchanged as widely expected – and priced in – by global markets. Stocks fell despite lower yields. The US dollar was in doji mode yesterday but is stronger this morning, perhaps supported by a relatively cautious Fed tone and some flight to safety. There are rumours the US could become directly involved in Middle East tensions as soon as this weekend. That alone could attract defensive flows into the dollar ahead of a potentially critical weekend – regardless of Fed policy. There’s also little reason to pile into risk assets amid such elevated geopolitical risk. If tensions escalate, there’s arguably no better shelter than oil, gold, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc. Today, it’s Bank of England’s (BoE) turn to announce no change, while the Swiss just cut its policy rate to 0%. Listen to find out more!

US stocks sold off, oil and natural gas rallied, and the US dollar gained as US Treasuries and gold attracted safe-haven flows. Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 meeting, spurred concerns that the US could become involved in the Middle East crisis. Investors are taking risk off the table, bracing for further escalation and a potential prolongation of tensions with Iran. All this sets the stage for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy decision and the release of its updated dot plot later today. The Fed is not expected to change rates at this meeting. The base case remains two rate cuts this year, with the first likely not before September, according to Fed funds futures pricing. While the economic projections and dot plot could shift market expectations, rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties mean the Fed’s growth and inflation forecasts may lack precision, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Listen to find out more!

Stocks in Europe and the US rallied as oil and gold retreated yesterday on news that Iran is willing to resume talks on its nuclear program. The market interpreted this as a sign that Iran either has no intention — or possibly no means — to escalate the war, easing concerns about potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows transit. However, this is not a classic de-escalation story. While Iran appears to be signalling restraint, former President Donald Trump urged the evacuation of Tehran, and Israel has vowed to continue its strikes. As such, energy prices rebound this morning, while equity futures hint at bearish session. What could happen from here, and how energy markets could impacted? Listen to find out more?

Headlines were busy over the weekend as hostilities between Iran and Israel continued. An Iranian gas field in the Persian Gulf was hit on Saturday, fueling concerns that the escalation could spill over into global energy markets. US crude opened the week above $76 per barrel, and Brent crude briefly pushed above $84 per barrel. However, both benchmarks quickly gave back gains. Natural gas also spiked at the open, breaking above its 100-day moving average, before retreating. The US dollar edged higher on haven flows, while gold, which opened at record levels, is also paring gains. The early trading reaction points to a surprisingly muted response from markets despite intensifying Middle East tensions. This week, markets will remain focused on Middle East developments, energy prices, and a slew of central bank decisions: the Fed, BoE, SNB, and BoJ are all in play. Listen to find out more!

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran sends 100s of drones on Israel. Oil jumps, the US dollar and safe haven assets rally as equities come under pressure as geopolitical tensions mount. What’s next? Back in October 2024, Israel had launched a major strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. At the time, Iran responded with drone attacks that were mostly intercepted and perceived more as a warning than a retaliation. Tensions eventually eased and markets quickly settled. A similar de-escalation is possible now—but not guaranteed. Judging by the price action, the market’s response to last night’s attack has been very strong. Listen to find out more!

The relief that the US and China is replaced by rumours that the EU will hardly ink a deal before the July deadline, and Trump has threatened other Asian nations with fresh tariffs—saying his administration will send letters within two weeks to inform them of unilateral tariffs as a pressure tactic. So, optimism is waning. Investors are also focused on the upcoming US 30-year bond auction to get a feeling of how well the latest US debt news have been digested. The US dollar is significantly lower following the CPI release and renewed tariff and debt concerns. The EURUSD finally cleared the 1.15 offers and is consolidating above that level. In equities, Oracle jumped 7.5% in after-hours trading on a set of better-than-expected quarterly results and a bullish AI-driven outlook, while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang pointed at a potentially massive new revenue stream for his business: quantum computing. Listen to find out more!

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Trade headlines are striking an optimistic tone this week. According to Bloomberg, US and Chinese officials have agreed on a plan ‘to ease trade tensions,’ a move that could revive the flow of sensitive goods between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, the US and Mexico appear close to finalising a deal that would lift the 50% tariffs on steel imports. Risk sentiment across Asian markets is broadly positive, but US and European equity futures are modestly lower this morning, likely reflecting some disappointment over the lack of concrete detail in trade negotiations. Officials are now expected to present the proposals to their respective presidents. In the meantime, investors will focus ontoday’s US CPI report and UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves spending details. Listen to find out more!

The week started on a quiet note in the US and with some weakness in Europe, where many were off due to a religious holiday. But futures are in positive territory this morning as traders return to their desks. One of the main drivers of optimism is the renewed momentum in US/China trade talks. The first day of the second round of negotiations reportedly went relatively well. There hasn’t been a breakthrough yet, and the talks in London continue today. Still, rumours are circulating that the US may be willing to make concessions on tech exports in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth metal exports. As such, risk assets are up, while safe havens are soft this morning. In equities, Apple unveiled its new “Liquid Glass” interface at its Worldwide Developers Conference, that failed to impress investors while TSMC released its May sales figures this morning, reporting a strong 39.6% year-on-year gain. The stock rose in Taiwan on the news and may help lift Nvidia at the US open. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on a positive note. Improved headlines on the trade front between the US and China and a set of better-than-expected US jobs data helped lift the S&P 500 by 1.5% over the week. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2% despite a sharp selloff in Tesla shares amid a heated dispute between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Friday’s rally was driven largely by a narrative that the US economy remains surprisingly resilient despite trade chaos and geopolitical uncertainty. But the US 2-year yield jumped past the 4% mark on Friday. Don’t bet that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will act as a catalyst for equity bulls. However, a strong auction of 30-year US bonds on Thursday could help ease concerns at the long end of the yield curve – as the 30-year yield opens the week just below the 5% psychological level. More positive trade news could also help sentiment. US and China will hold the second round of trade negotiations this Monday in London. US crude consolidates below $65pb mark, while Chinese equities are slightly up despite soft trade and inflation data. Listen to find out more!

Donald Trump and Elon Musk went from best friends to worse enemies, while relations between Trump and Xi look better after the much-expected phone call between the two leaders. The rare earth metals ETFs are up while stock investors remain on the sidelines before the release of the latest jobs data from the US before the weekly closing bell... that could – maybe – further boost the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and send major indices higher. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates yesterday but signalled the end of the easing cycle, crude oil continues to see support near $64.20pb mark and silver rallied nearly 10% this week as momentum traders joined in force after the price cleared an important psychological level. Listen to find out more!

iShares MSCI All World Index just hit a fresh all-time high yesterday — only a few hours after the OECD cut the global growth forecast, citing global trade uncertainties, tighter monetary conditions, and weakened consumer and business sentiment. Yet investors couldn’t care less. Dips in equity markets are still seen as opportunities to buy cheaper despite unideal news on the trade and data fronts... But if you want to know, yesterday’s ISM services data showed a surprise contraction, and the ADP jobs report was weak — just 37,000 new private jobs last month. Over the past four months, three readings came in under 100K, and one under 50K. Historically, a string of sub-50K prints often signals recession is knocking. But weak data just boosts rate-cut hopes. Markets now expect two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts by year-end, the first likely in September. The US 2-year yield fell below 3.90%, limiting equity downside — the S&P 500 closed flat. Magic! Listen to find out more!

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Market performance was surprisingly strong yesterday, especially considering the day began in the US with a sharp downgrade in global growth projections from the OECD. The trade headlines were also negative while the economic data was mixed and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is reluctant to move due to rising inflation expectations. So it’s probably FOMO—and it feels fragile. Today, investors will watch the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing data for fresh insights into US economic strength. Strong numbers may support further gains while soft figures Maybe could trigger a pullback. Or maybe not. Markets seem to have their own agenda, and the fear of missing a potential rally appears enough to fuel optimism—no matter how weak the forecasts, or the data. Listen to find out more!

The month of June started on a bearish note, as renewed trade tensions and mixed economic data dominated the headlines. Trade tensions are now accompanied by military tensions. The British PM announced yesterday at the government’s Strategic Defense Review that £15bn will be spent to bring Britain up to ‘war-fighting readiness’. Needless to say, European defense stocks cheered the news: Select Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF gained another 1.63%, also reaching a new record, while the rest of the Stoxx 600 remained muted. Gold rallied to a three-week high on the back of renewed geopolitical jitters, while USDCHF sank below the 0.82 mark amid flight to safety—toward the Swiss economy, which expanded by 2% in Q1. In the US, the S&P500 managed to shrug off trade anxieties while the Japanese 10-year auction saw stronger-than-expected demand and pulled the 10-year JGB yield below the 1.50% mark. Notably, increased demand for Japanese government bonds has tended to coincide with selling pressure in the S&P500 since last summer—largely due to the unwinding of Japanese carry trades, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets. As such, relatively high Japanese yields increase the risk of reverse carry trades and should be watched closely. Listen to find out more!

Welcome to June. So we’re in June. The month of May ended with a whopping 6% advance for the S&P500, defying the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ adage on Wall Street that points to a generally unfavourable seasonal trend for the month. But the S&P500’s performance is hiding a few issues on the US debt and global trade fronts: trade tensions are rising between the US and EU/China, oil prices are up on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and risk appetite is limited this morning, except for defense and energy companies. This week, investors will watch the PMI figures, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada (BoC) decisions, the US jobs data, and earnings from Crowdstrike and Broadcom. Listen to find out more!

What began as early trade optimism yesterday – triggered by the US Court of International Trade deeming Trump’s tariffs illegal – turned out to be too good to be true. Things quickly got messy when Trump appealed the decision, prompting the US Court of Appeals to pause the ruling in order to review arguments from both sides. Meanwhile, a separate federal court issued a similar but more limited decision on the tariffs. As a result, the initial ruling that had cancelled the tariffs is now effectively on hold. So it’s under this heavy cloud of uncertainty that the early risk-on rally yesterday fizzled out. Ongoing uncertainty around US fiscal and trade policy continues to weigh on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the economic impact of aggressive Trump policies – both on trade and government offices – is starting to show in the data. Figures released yesterday confirmed a contraction in US GDP in Q1, with spending growth more than halving and the trade deficit ballooning as firms rushed to import goods ahead of possible tariffs. Inventories rose. A key price gauge showed a sharp reversal in inflation pressures. Today’s PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – could surprise to the downside or meet expectations, but the full effects of the ‘tariff tsunami’ likely haven’t reached shore yet. The data will need to be taken with a pinch of salt. In energy, US crude wavers around the $60pb before OPEC confirms a third big output hike this weekend. Listen to find out more!

Nvidia below past earnings despite the Chinese hit and a US court deemed Trump’s tariffs illegal. The markets are up this morning, the US dollar gains, gold and franc retreat. US and European leaders are scheduled to speak today, but the court ruling may shift the tone of those talks. At this point, it’s unclear whether trade negotiations are even necessary anymore. European markets are closed today due to Ascension Day, so while futures are trading higher, the thin volumes could exaggerate market moves – and it looks like the good news will get the support. Listen to find out more!

Market mood is astonishingly great this week on the back of a global decline in yields, triggered by the Japanese government’s will to adjust the size of its bond issuance amid a selloff in long-maturity bonds sent 30- to 40-year JGB yields to all-time highs. The rally in Japanese bonds helped pull the US 30-year yield below the 5% mark. And optimism from falling sovereign yields was compounded by better-than-expected US durable goods orders in April and a surprise rebound in consumer confidence in May. The Conference Board’s gauge posted the biggest monthly gain in four years and exceeded all estimates. But that confidence gauge doesn’t capture the latest 50% tariff threats on American imports of European products, the uncertain and unilaterally shifting deadlines, or warnings from companies like Walmart that price hikes from tariffs will impact a broad range of goods. And trade risks and swelling government debt worries remain. So to me, the 2% rally in the S&P 500 seems exaggerated. Futures are slightly in the red today, PDD announced disappointing results, while Nvidia is due to reveal its own quarterly earnings after the bell! Listen to find out more!

The week started on a slow but hopeful note for European markets, with expectations that Trump’s latest 50% tariff threat on European imports would accelerate negotiations but that market optimism fascinates me. European markets are flirting with ATH levels, US futures were also up yesterday—but the reality is that with every piece of incoming information, the collective welfare deteriorates. Still, moving forward, fresh deals between the US and major trade partners could further boost market sentiment and send indices on both sides of the Atlantic to fresh ATH levels—but whether that optimism lasts is yet to be seen. The economic data—especially the inflation metrics—will be crucial. The US dollar is better bid this morning, but remains under pressure from trade tensions and the worsening perception of the US’s ballooning debt. The debt issues are also making the headlines in Japan. The 30- and 40-year JGB yields have recently spiked to the highest levels on record, and the 10-year yield hit the highest since 2009. Listen to find out more!

Trade headlines are accelerating again. Markets ended last week on a sour note after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on European imports by June 1st, prompting a sharp selloff in major US and European indices. He also warned that Apple could face a 25% tariff unless it relocates its production to the US. Yet, sentiment has shifted sharply this morning. The Nikkei 225 rose more than 1.7%, buoyed by hopes that the US and Japan are progressing toward a trade deal. European and US futures rebounded on news that the 50% EU tariff threat will be postponed to June 9th... Selling pressure on the US dollar continues, driven by renewed trade frictions and swelling concerns over US debt. The dollar index is nearing its April lows, while the EURUSD has opened the week on strong footing—partly in relief over the delayed EU tariff deadline, though it's worth noting the euro was already rising on Friday when the tariff threat emerged. The euro appears to be acting as both a safe haven and a risk-on asset amid trade headlines. Cable surged past 1.35 for the first time in over three years, while the USDJPY looks poised to test the 142 level to the downside, gold continues to hold above $3,300 per ounce, supported by trade and debt uncertainties and Bitcoin is catching a bid amid capital outflows from the dollar and growing adoption by institutional players. The week will bring fresh inflation reports from major Eurozone economies and Japan, a likely rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the US GDP and PCE updates and Nvidia earnings! Listen to find out more!

The selloff in US equities eased yesterday as pressure in the bond space declined. But the news is far from reassuring for a sustainable relief: US politicians continue to turn a blind eye to the stress building in the sovereign bond space. The House of Representatives passed Trump’s ‘beautiful’ tax bill yesterday—with just one vote. But one vote is all it takes to send the bill to the Senate, which is narrowly controlled by the same Republicans who proposed it. As such, US yields have eased slightly but the crisis is far from over. The US dollar was better bid during the Thursday session, though selling pressure returned in Asia. In contrast, Europe’s PMI data disappointed but the euro is performing well against a basket of G7 currencies. Lower energy prices and increased issuance of euro-denominated bonds are also supportive of the euro appetite. In commodities, crude oil prices took another hit yesterday after reports emerged that OPEC+ is considering a sizable production hike in July—reportedly 411,000 barrels per day—to meet growing demand. Any escalation in Middle East tensions could trigger a spike in prices and may present interesting tactical opportunities, but they are likely to be short-lived. Listen to find out more!

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It’s Thursday, and so far this week, US debt concerns have overshadowed Middle East optimism, trade tensions, and even a fresh all-time high for Bitcoin. The turning point was last Friday’s credit outlook downgrade by Moody’s, which was quickly followed by a political debate around the budget. In this episode we will dive into the guts of the US debt market, why US could afford to push its debt exponentially higher, why it could no longer do so, and what are the risks and alternatives. In the markets, the surge in yields weighed heavily on equities. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq retreated 1.34%. On the earnings front, both Home Depot and Lowe’s reported better-than-expected results, and HD said it has no plans to raise prices due to tariffs, as about half of its products are sourced domestically. But other retailers are less shielded. Walmart previously stated it would raise prices in response to tariffs, while Target missed both Q1 revenue and earnings, cut its full-year guidance, and cited tariff uncertainty, weak consumer sentiment, and backlash from rolling back DEI initiatives in January. Listen to find out more!

US equities retreated yesterday—ending a six-day rally—and the US dollar weakened as the selloff in long-term US Treasuries continued. Crude oil jumped on reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Safe haven assets surged, while the US dollar was left behind in the safe-haven race. Option traders remain pessimistic about the dollar’s prospects for 2025. The one-year risk reversals—a gauge that reflects whether investors are hedging more with calls or puts—have dropped to the most negative level on record, according to Bloomberg. Listen to find out more!

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered their interest rates today, hoping to tame and counter the negative impact of the global trade war on their economies and job markets. The moves were expected and received mixed reactions across stock markets. The CSI 300 index and the Hang Seng gained, the latter was boosted by CATL’s IPO, which went according to plan and led to a 14% surge in its Hong Kong debut. Meanwhile, the ASX gave back earlier gains as trade headlines are turning sour. In Europe, the EU and the UK sealed their most comprehensive deal since Brexit and pledged ‘to discuss British access’ to Europe’s €150 billion defense fund. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defence ETF soared 2% to a fresh high. In the US, investors shrugged off rating downgrade news, yields reversed advance, the S&P500 eked out small gain. Nvidia’s plans to open the door to third-party chips in its AI infrastructure was applauded. Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings are in focus as investors complete the US consumer picture in the midst of trade turmoil. Listen to find out more!

The week starts with a jump in US yields and a weaker dollar after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from the top Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns about the US’ rapidly rising debt toward the $37 trillion mark. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the downgrade and attempted to shift attention to the sharp tariff hikes that may be announced in the next two to three weeks. This means that the market optimism seen just a week ago — following an agreement between the US and China to talk while lowering tariffs during a 90-day window — is losing strength. In Asia, the week begins with losses across major indices. Gold, franc, yen and euro are up, index futures are under pressure. On the economic calendar, both China and Australia are expected to cut rates this week to counter the fallout from trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, UK inflation data out Wednesday is expected to show a sharp increase in headline CPI. Flash PMI data on Thursday will offer a sense of field-level sentiment. Listen to find out more!

Market sentiment remained tilted toward the upside across the US and European markets yesterday. In Europe, UK growth and eurozone industrial production surprised to the upside, while in the US, the data pointed at economic slowdown but sharp decline in producer prices tempered stagflation worries... but Walmart killed joy saying that they will increase the prices of their products according to tariffs. As such, uncertainties persist, the US dollar index remains under pressure, and the dollar’s weakness and majors recover early-week losses. In China, Alibaba’s profit missed estimates and led to a 7.5% selloff in the company’s shares yesterday but growth in cloud revenue remained strong and company said that AI-related products see triple-digit growth. Listen to find out more!

The news of fresh deals is coming in from the Middle East as Donald Trump seems very successful in getting the oil- and gas-rich countries to buy stuff from the US – including chips and planes – but appetite for trade optimism is starting to show signs of exhaustion. Despite the announcement of a $243bn deal with Qatar on top of the $600bn deal with Saudi Arabia, the S&P500 traded flat on Wednesday. In China, Tencent announced slightly better-than-expected revenue in Q1. Its net profit grew 82% compared to the same period last year – but still fell short of analyst expectations and Alibaba will announce its own results later today, and the focus will be on AI and cloud revenues. Note that the Chinese AI story is developing and the Chinese Tech companies’ valuations remain cheaper than the US peers. Listen to find out more!

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Trade news keeps getting better. Yesterday, it was the chipmakers’ turn to lead the rally, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman pledged to spend as much as $1 trillion in commercial deals with the US, while Jensen Huang announced in Riyadh that the company will be selling chips to the Saudi Arabian AI company Humain for a massive data center project. Chip stocks led a broad-based US equity rally while gains in Europe remained limited. On the macro side, investors also digested the latest US inflation report — which showed prices rising last month, but less than expected on a monthly basis. On a yearly basis, the headline rate eased to 2.3% — the lowest since spring 2021 — marking the third straight month of a softer-than-expected print. But the news were overshadowed by the tariff fears and didn’t improve Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Across the channel, the surprise rise in the eurozone inflation softens the European Central Bank (ECB) doves’ hands, while in the UK, dovish voices are rising for the Bank of England (BoE) to cut – giving support to sterling against both the US dollar and the single currency. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with the news that the US and China would announce ‘substantial’ progress in trade negotiations — and the progress was indeed close to substantial. Markets rallied with joy, gold and the franc softened, the US dollar rallied, US treasuries retreated. Gains are being given back today as European and US futures are also down — a bit of a hangover after yesterday’s party, a moment to question how good the news really is, and how long the truce might last. Recent days have brought major progress to the table, this isn’t the end. Talks could be interrupted at any point, as strategic decoupling between the US and China will continue for national security reasons — keeping pressure on key sectors, including semiconductors. The so-called de minimis exemption that allows cheap Chinese products into the US remains at 120% — meaning Shein and PDD won’t massively benefit from the tariff relief. And of course, uncertainty over what happens after the 90-day pause will keep many companies in wait-and-see mode, delaying investment decisions until a more durable truce emerges. Today, investors are walking into the US CPI update with a lighter heart. There’s a chance that the 90-day tariff pause — along with the latest dip in consumer sentiment — could help temper inflationary pressures in the US and give the Fed more room to act, if needed. A softer-than-expected data could further fuel appetite while an unpleasantly stronger read could be taken with a pinch of salt. Listen to find out more!

The weekend brought good news. The negotiations between American and Chinese officials this weekend in Geneva went well – apparently – as US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that ‘substantial progress was made.’ The foretaste of de-escalation is giving a boost to risk appetite this morning –although pharma stocks are under pressure on Trump’s plans to order a cut in US prescription drug costs – he doesn’t want Americans to pay more than people in countries with the lowest price... In FX, the US dollar is slightly softer this morning – on the back of trade optimism – while the Swiss franc and gold retreat. This week, investors will focus on the trade developments, Chinese Big Tech and Walmart results and US CPI update. Listen to find out more!

Not only do we have a new pope this week, but we also have the first deal in Trump’s global trade war, this time between the UK and the US. Trump’s enthusiastic announcement, complete with a lot of CAPITAL LETTERS, helped inflate sentiment, making this US-UK deal feel bigger than it actually is. Still, the news of the US-UK deal resonated positively across global financial markets and all eyes are on the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese high-level officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss tariffs. Further de-escalation could boost equities and the US dollar further and pull gold and Swiss franc lower. In energy, the week ends on a better note than it started. US crude is back at the $60pb level after an early-week plunge to $55 on news that OPEC would accelerate plans to restore output — for reasons that remain unclear. Listen to find out more!

This week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting went according to plan. It was hawkish—though just about as hawkish as expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and signalled it's in no rush to cut them before gathering more data to assess the real impact of the tariff policy. It believes tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment. And even though the spike in inflation is expected to be temporary, there’s a chance it could linger. The US 2-year yield rebounded after the decision, the probability of a June cut eased to 20%, and US equities came under pressure. But the headlines shifted quickly: news that the Trump administration would scrap the AI chip curbs engineered by Biden gave a late boost to major indices in the final half-hour of trading. Nvidia—flat for most of the session—rallied over 3% in the last 30 minutes. And the US and the UK are expected to announce a trade deal today! Listen to find out more!

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The futures are in the positive this morning on news that the trade talks between the US and China could lead to progress, as the Chinese Premier will reportedly meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week to discuss tariffs. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) freshly lowered its policy rate and reserve ratio today in an effort to strengthen its monetary support for the Chinese economy, which is seeing a slowdown in activity. As such, the CSI 300 is better bid this morning – the index is back to April 2nd levels, when Trump blew the world’s mind with his unreasonable tariff levels – while the Hang Seng jumped above its 50-DMA, though gains remained fragile and were mostly given back by the time of writing. The US dollar is slightly positive this morning, as the selloff against Asian currencies cools. Good news from the Chinese front could bring back hopes and risk appetite. The latter would result in a recovery in the US dollar and a further rebound in equities as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to announce no change to its rates today. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a bearish note for US equities as the buying that had been driven by hopes of a turnaround in trade winds over the past nine sessions is gently losing momentum. In FX, the US dollar remains softer across the board; its rapid selloff against Asian peers was particularly in focus over the past two sessions and raised concerns about the dollar’s status as a safe haven and reserve currency. The Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting with no expected change to its policy this week, while earnings are not looing bad but forecasts are souring sentiment. From here, the lack of good news on the trade front will likely discourage bulls from extending the latest rally. Yet, I firmly believe that optimistic investors are positioning to catch the moment when potential tariff deals pop and trigger a rebound—they just don’t want to miss the rally by coming in too late. That mindset could help limit losses if the suspense doesn’t last long and trade deals really materialize. Listen to find out more!

The week begins with a sharp decline in oil prices – around 4% at the time of writing – as OPEC+ announced it would accelerate output restoration by 411K barrels per day. No one knows the motivation behind the move, but the impact on oil’s direction is clear: to the downside. PS: Lower oil prices are obviously a straight positive for bringing inflation lower for the US and elsewhere, and potentially allow global central banks to tame the negative impact of the trade war on their respective economies. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain rates unchanged this week, while the Bank of England (BoE) will likely announce a 25bp cut. The US dollar kicks off the week on a negative note, as Asian currencies soar on rumours that there could be some announcement on the trade front later today. Listen to find out more!

The S&P 500 gained for the eighth consecutive session despite a set of soft economic data and cautious earnings forecasts. The lack of escalation in the trade war over the past week and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations certainly explain a major part of the recent gains. But optimism remains fragile, and the Fed’s ability to help depends on the trajectory of inflation. Today, eyes are on the US official jobs data and Big Oil earnings. While soft jobs data could temporarily fuel the dovish Fed expectations and keep investor appetite in check, disappointing results from oil giants – combined to weakening oil prices – should limit gains among energy companies. Listen to find out more!

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Market sentiment has improved following a deluge of data and earnings announcements on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, strong growth numbers were spoiled by stronger-than-expected inflation update, while in the US, terrible GDP figures were countered by a softer-than-expected PCE read. In Japan, the Nikkei rose despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) downside revision for growth and worries about inflation, and the futures hint at a positive session as both Meta and Microsoft jumped after announcing their quarterly results. All eyes are on Apple and Amazon today, after the bell. Listen to find out more!

Donald Trump's tariff announcements injected high liquidity into the global financial markets. In this special episode, NFG Partners' Glenn Coxon dissects Trump's tariff strategy, different outcomes and how to invest in different scenarios. Join us for an engaging and eye-opening conversation!

Market sentiment somehow improved on news that Donald Trump would ease auto tariffs by lifting some levies on imported auto parts, and to avoid aluminium and steel levies stacking up alongside the rest of the tariffs—probably as a marketing move as he gave a speech in Michigan marking his 100 days in office. As a result, carmakers around the world and major US indices posted gains yesterday. Part of the gains was also due to hope that US corporate earnings would be resilient to tariff uncertainty, that Scott Bessent is eyeing July 4th to pass a multi-trillion-dollar tax cut package to help improve the new administration’s plunging approval ratings, and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would step in if things worsened. But the majority of the news was less than ideal—to say the least. Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm are due to release earnings today after the bell; Apple and Amazon report tomorrow. US GDP growth and jobs data, and Eurozone countries’ CPI updates are among key data that investors will watch today. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a slightly positive note for European equities on continued expectations that the disinflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies would allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to give ample support to the underlying economies. But sentiment was much less bullish for US equities, which saw an initial drop on rising inflation expectations for the US economy and worries that any Federal Reserve (Fed) support would be limited due to a heat-up in inflation dynamics. Calmer flow of Trump news may allow investors to focus on critical economic data (US jobs, GDP, Euro inflation) and earnings (including European bog banks, US Big Tech and Big Oil). But risks prevail and the latter keeps gold – and miners - a popular trade despite a more than 40% rally since last August. Listen to find out more!

The week starts with mixed feelings. Market mood improved last week as US President Donald Trump eased pressure on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, announced some progress with trading partners including Japan and India, and said that the triple-digit import taxes on Chinese products will probably be ‘substantially’ revised lower. And happily, we heard no major bombs from Trump or his administration over the weekend. It could hardly get better than this given the situation. Investors will focus on an avalanche of earnings announcements, the first update of the US Q1 GDP and April preliminary inflation figures of the eurozone. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain status quo, but the latest rise in inflation keep the BoJ hawks alert. Listen to find out more!

Yesterday allowed global risk investors to take a deeper breath. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) members, and de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China allowed a further recovery in global equities. Optimism was backed today by the Chinese announcement that it is considering easing tariffs on some US imports, further signalling de-escalation of trade tensions and supporting earlier comments from the Trump administration that triple-digit tariffs could come ‘substantially’ down. On the individual front, Google - that announced its latest results yesterday after the bell - showed better-than-expected revenue growth for both its advertising and cloud segments, justifying the company’s AI spending plans, hence giving AI investors a timid smile, indicating that the AI theme isn’t dead—it’s just been overshadowed by Trump’s trade news. Nasdaq futures are leading gains this morning, and sentiment across major markets suggests that the week will likely end in a better mood than when it started! Let’s cross our fingers that the weekend news don’t spoil the latest optimism. Listen to find out more!

Hectic and unpredictable, the Trump show continues. Sentiment is fragile, pressure on equities and the USD remains tight, crude oil’s positive momentum is hit by lower IMF growth forecasts and nothing is less certain for company earnings: the earnings season is shadowed by tariff uncertainty as well. Gold remains the ultimate hedge to trade shenanigans while the European assets and the euro attract inflows. Listen to find out more!