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Markets are brushing off 25–40% tariffs like they’re just minor annoyances. But the US is back to tariff warfare, inflation is knocking, repatriation risks from Japan are rising — and yet, equities barely flinch. The S&P 500 is near ATH levels, the Nikkei rebounds, and the Stoxx 600 marches on. The new negotiation deadline is pushed to August 1st, but somehow that’s good news? Businesses can’t hold prices down forever, and consumers may soon feel the pinch. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is stuck between rising inflation and slowing growth. But sure — let’s keep buying risk. It must be unicorns holding it all together.🦄 But while the party continues as long is music is one, we dig into tariff risks, earnings risks, potential JGB yield shocks, the Fed’s dilemma and FX moves. Listen to find out more!

The week starts with renewed pressure on oil prices as OPEC decided to ramp up its production restoration plans by announcing an additional 548,000 barrels per day—well above the 411,000 increase expected, and renewed pressure on risk appetite as the July 9th deadline approaches fast. Within two days, the Trump administration is expected to announce its tariff decision for trading partners. Asian traders kicked off the week cautiously. The US dollar is surprisingly higher this morning, while the selloff in oil was contained, perhaps on repricing of geopolitical tensions. Listen to find out more!

This was last week's episode, uploaded now. When there is war, there is crisis. But shouldn't Bitcoin be crisis resistant? #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records, while small-caps join the party. And that’s despite jobs data that killed July Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut hopes—odds dropped from 27% to just 5%! Yields spiked, the dollar jumped... but stocks still climbed. Why? Digging deeper, the jobs data wasn’t as strong as it looked. Job gains came from public education, and unemployment fell only because people left the labour force. Wages slowed—good for the Fed—but now it’s tariffs fueling inflation fears. Trump’s new deal with Vietnam hints at double-digit tariffs. Add his $3.3 trillion ‘reverse Robin Hood’ tax bill, and debt fears are back. Gold is rising. Futures are down. And the market? Priced for perfection. How long can this rally last? Listen to find out more!

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high yesterday, boosted by a 4% jump in Nike shares — now up 45% since April’s dip on the back of the US–Vietnam trade deal and relaxed chip design exports toward China. But the tariffs remain significantly high – and will likely boost inflation – the economic data is weakening but not enough to get the Fed to cut the rates when inflation expectations are rising – and the Western sovereign bonds start giving fresh signs of stress. In summary, there are cracks beneath the record high equity prices. And this episode is detailing them! Listen to find out more!

Unexpectedly, there will be a Solana ETF, even with a staking element! What's the story behind it? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Disclaimer 00:28 Preview 00:50 Bitcoin 02:10 Ethereum 03:57 Solana 05:54 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Rally in most major indices across Europe and the US paused yesterday, as Trump-driven optimism began to sour under the rocky glare of the summer sun. To top it off, yesterday’s US data did little to support those betting on an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. Most FOMC members still argue that cutting rates now would be a mistake, particularly as they expect inflation to rise due to tariffs in the coming months, and the labour market remains robust enough to wait. In fact, US job openings unexpectedly rose in May, the ISM Manufacturing Index showed slower contraction, and price pressures edged higher in June. Investors will keep focus on US jobs data today and tomorrow. Sufficiently strong figures could lead to an accelerated readjustment of Fed pricing, push yields higher and weigh on risk appetite. Listen to find out more!

US equities ended Q2 at all-time highs. While headlines point to optimism around trade negotiations and potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, much of the recent rally appears to be driven by continued enthusiasm around AI. On the trade front, discussions with Japan remain tense, and talks with the EU may result in a universal 10% tariff without key sectors—like autos and luxury—receive exemptions. On the Fed front, Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned against rushing to cut rates, especially as the impact of new tariffs on inflation and growth remains unclear. Last week’s hotter-than-expected core PCE data reinforces that message, suggesting inflation may be turning back up. Earnings expectations have also been revised down, yet markets seem to be pricing in a best-case scenario. Eyes are on US jobs data. Any weakness could further revive the Fed doves and support the rally, but the red flags are rising. Listen to find out more!

De-escalation of the Middle East tensions and encouraging news from the trade front improve risk taking across global financial markets, leading gold and oil lower and boosting appetite for major currencies. The US dollar remains under pressure however on looming US debt worries while the Swiss franc remains in demand despite optimism globally. This week, investors will focus on European inflation figures, Trump’s tax bill—aimed to pass before the July 4th holiday, the latest US jobs report and a series of final PMI prints. In energy markets, oil prices are worth watching as they give back the Middle East–led gains. WTI crude is sitting on a key Fibonacci support near $65 per barrel—the level that separates the year-to-date bearish trend from a potential medium-term bullish consolidation. Expectations that OPEC may announce a plan to bring more oil to market at its July 6 meeting could give bears the upper hand into the weekend. Listen to find out more!

The month of June is approaching its end with US equities having rebounded to their all-time high levels, fully brushing off the trade-war-led selloff between February and April this year. The rally looks stretched considering the US debt risks, high valuations, trade uncertainties and hardly funded dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. But stretched doesn’t mean it won’t continue. If investors are fed a steady diet of sugar, asset prices could keep inflating. And Trump may eventually give them what they want. The US and China have apparently reached a trade truce, the US administration said that 10 more deals could be imminent, and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she’s ready to negotiate when the US is — in an effort to reach an agreement before the July deadline. Meanwhile, US bank investors are cheering news of softer regulation on leverage rules this week, which could free up to $6 trillion in additional balance sheet capacity. As such, futures are in the green and the US dollar rebounds from 3-year lows. Listen to find out more!

Trump denied earlier intelligence reports suggesting that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused only limited damage. On the contrary, he claimed the operation was a historic success and even declared the war over — ‘except that it could maybe restart soon.’ Still, the US and Iran are scheduled to meet for diplomatic talks in Iran this weekend, which appears to be a signal that Trump genuinely wants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Oil is lower, US dollar is lower as well despite Powell’s reluctance to cut rates amid tariff uncertainties. But Powell could be bypassed by a premature appointment of next Fed Chair, without however a guarantee that the markets will absorb unjustified rate cuts. In all cases, the dollar continues to weaken, weaker dollar supports S&P500 revenue expectations but the S&P500 earnings should grow way faster than the dollar’s depreciation says Bloomberg Intelligence to be considered trading at ‘fair value’. Listen to find out more!

Tensions in the Middle East are deescalating and energy prices ease. Easing stress in energy markets is excellent news for everyone who doesn’t want to see higher oil prices translating into accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy. The combination of Middle East de-escalation and rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations sent the S&P 500 more than 1% higher—almost near a record high—while the Nasdaq printed a fresh closing high. The US dollar fell. But trade, debt and geopolitical risks loom and market mood feels overly optimistic when risks are taken in the consideration. Listen to find out more!

Middle East tensions suddenly waned after Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar — having reportedly informed the US in advance. As a result, the missiles were intercepted. President Trump called Iran’s move ‘weak’ and announced a few hours ago that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. Crude tumbled, gold and US dollar eased, and risk taking is improved. Gains in US indices are also supported by rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, while European indices remain under the pressure of trade uncertainties into the July 9th deadline. Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may temper dovish expectations during his semi-annual testimony, which begins today and continues tomorrow. He’s likely to maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high to justify a rate cut before the fall — especially amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Could he throw cold water on US equity optimism? Time will tell! Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with a jump in oil prices as the US got involved in Middle East tensions, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities with what they call ‘bunker busters’, oil prices jumped at the open, but gains have been given back since then, haven assets don’t show a particular sign of stress... Monday markets look like business as usual. Risks however are looming, and headlines could – maybe – wake up the pessimists?! Listen to find out more!

The worsening global geopolitical weather keeps investors in a cautious mode, and will likely prevent them from taking too much risk before the weekend. While the news that the US is giving itself two weeks to decide whether to intervene in Iran – which is slightly better than earlier reports suggesting they would go in this weekend – has somehow eased tensions, looming uncertainties pushed US and European equities lower yesterday. I’m not sure the US buying itself time can be interpreted as a sign of de-escalation. Energy, defense and haven stocks remain in demand, while investors will certainly refrain from taking too much risk on their shoulders. Listen to find out more!

‘Someone has to pay,’ said Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at yesterday’s post-decision presser, after the Fed kept rates unchanged as widely expected – and priced in – by global markets. Stocks fell despite lower yields. The US dollar was in doji mode yesterday but is stronger this morning, perhaps supported by a relatively cautious Fed tone and some flight to safety. There are rumours the US could become directly involved in Middle East tensions as soon as this weekend. That alone could attract defensive flows into the dollar ahead of a potentially critical weekend – regardless of Fed policy. There’s also little reason to pile into risk assets amid such elevated geopolitical risk. If tensions escalate, there’s arguably no better shelter than oil, gold, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc. Today, it’s Bank of England’s (BoE) turn to announce no change, while the Swiss just cut its policy rate to 0%. Listen to find out more!

US stocks sold off, oil and natural gas rallied, and the US dollar gained as US Treasuries and gold attracted safe-haven flows. Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 meeting, spurred concerns that the US could become involved in the Middle East crisis. Investors are taking risk off the table, bracing for further escalation and a potential prolongation of tensions with Iran. All this sets the stage for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy decision and the release of its updated dot plot later today. The Fed is not expected to change rates at this meeting. The base case remains two rate cuts this year, with the first likely not before September, according to Fed funds futures pricing. While the economic projections and dot plot could shift market expectations, rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties mean the Fed’s growth and inflation forecasts may lack precision, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Listen to find out more!

Stocks in Europe and the US rallied as oil and gold retreated yesterday on news that Iran is willing to resume talks on its nuclear program. The market interpreted this as a sign that Iran either has no intention — or possibly no means — to escalate the war, easing concerns about potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows transit. However, this is not a classic de-escalation story. While Iran appears to be signalling restraint, former President Donald Trump urged the evacuation of Tehran, and Israel has vowed to continue its strikes. As such, energy prices rebound this morning, while equity futures hint at bearish session. What could happen from here, and how energy markets could impacted? Listen to find out more?

Headlines were busy over the weekend as hostilities between Iran and Israel continued. An Iranian gas field in the Persian Gulf was hit on Saturday, fueling concerns that the escalation could spill over into global energy markets. US crude opened the week above $76 per barrel, and Brent crude briefly pushed above $84 per barrel. However, both benchmarks quickly gave back gains. Natural gas also spiked at the open, breaking above its 100-day moving average, before retreating. The US dollar edged higher on haven flows, while gold, which opened at record levels, is also paring gains. The early trading reaction points to a surprisingly muted response from markets despite intensifying Middle East tensions. This week, markets will remain focused on Middle East developments, energy prices, and a slew of central bank decisions: the Fed, BoE, SNB, and BoJ are all in play. Listen to find out more!

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran sends 100s of drones on Israel. Oil jumps, the US dollar and safe haven assets rally as equities come under pressure as geopolitical tensions mount. What’s next? Back in October 2024, Israel had launched a major strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. At the time, Iran responded with drone attacks that were mostly intercepted and perceived more as a warning than a retaliation. Tensions eventually eased and markets quickly settled. A similar de-escalation is possible now—but not guaranteed. Judging by the price action, the market’s response to last night’s attack has been very strong. Listen to find out more!

The relief that the US and China is replaced by rumours that the EU will hardly ink a deal before the July deadline, and Trump has threatened other Asian nations with fresh tariffs—saying his administration will send letters within two weeks to inform them of unilateral tariffs as a pressure tactic. So, optimism is waning. Investors are also focused on the upcoming US 30-year bond auction to get a feeling of how well the latest US debt news have been digested. The US dollar is significantly lower following the CPI release and renewed tariff and debt concerns. The EURUSD finally cleared the 1.15 offers and is consolidating above that level. In equities, Oracle jumped 7.5% in after-hours trading on a set of better-than-expected quarterly results and a bullish AI-driven outlook, while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang pointed at a potentially massive new revenue stream for his business: quantum computing. Listen to find out more!

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Trade headlines are striking an optimistic tone this week. According to Bloomberg, US and Chinese officials have agreed on a plan ‘to ease trade tensions,’ a move that could revive the flow of sensitive goods between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, the US and Mexico appear close to finalising a deal that would lift the 50% tariffs on steel imports. Risk sentiment across Asian markets is broadly positive, but US and European equity futures are modestly lower this morning, likely reflecting some disappointment over the lack of concrete detail in trade negotiations. Officials are now expected to present the proposals to their respective presidents. In the meantime, investors will focus ontoday’s US CPI report and UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves spending details. Listen to find out more!

The week started on a quiet note in the US and with some weakness in Europe, where many were off due to a religious holiday. But futures are in positive territory this morning as traders return to their desks. One of the main drivers of optimism is the renewed momentum in US/China trade talks. The first day of the second round of negotiations reportedly went relatively well. There hasn’t been a breakthrough yet, and the talks in London continue today. Still, rumours are circulating that the US may be willing to make concessions on tech exports in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth metal exports. As such, risk assets are up, while safe havens are soft this morning. In equities, Apple unveiled its new “Liquid Glass” interface at its Worldwide Developers Conference, that failed to impress investors while TSMC released its May sales figures this morning, reporting a strong 39.6% year-on-year gain. The stock rose in Taiwan on the news and may help lift Nvidia at the US open. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on a positive note. Improved headlines on the trade front between the US and China and a set of better-than-expected US jobs data helped lift the S&P 500 by 1.5% over the week. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2% despite a sharp selloff in Tesla shares amid a heated dispute between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Friday’s rally was driven largely by a narrative that the US economy remains surprisingly resilient despite trade chaos and geopolitical uncertainty. But the US 2-year yield jumped past the 4% mark on Friday. Don’t bet that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will act as a catalyst for equity bulls. However, a strong auction of 30-year US bonds on Thursday could help ease concerns at the long end of the yield curve – as the 30-year yield opens the week just below the 5% psychological level. More positive trade news could also help sentiment. US and China will hold the second round of trade negotiations this Monday in London. US crude consolidates below $65pb mark, while Chinese equities are slightly up despite soft trade and inflation data. Listen to find out more!

Donald Trump and Elon Musk went from best friends to worse enemies, while relations between Trump and Xi look better after the much-expected phone call between the two leaders. The rare earth metals ETFs are up while stock investors remain on the sidelines before the release of the latest jobs data from the US before the weekly closing bell... that could – maybe – further boost the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and send major indices higher. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates yesterday but signalled the end of the easing cycle, crude oil continues to see support near $64.20pb mark and silver rallied nearly 10% this week as momentum traders joined in force after the price cleared an important psychological level. Listen to find out more!

iShares MSCI All World Index just hit a fresh all-time high yesterday — only a few hours after the OECD cut the global growth forecast, citing global trade uncertainties, tighter monetary conditions, and weakened consumer and business sentiment. Yet investors couldn’t care less. Dips in equity markets are still seen as opportunities to buy cheaper despite unideal news on the trade and data fronts... But if you want to know, yesterday’s ISM services data showed a surprise contraction, and the ADP jobs report was weak — just 37,000 new private jobs last month. Over the past four months, three readings came in under 100K, and one under 50K. Historically, a string of sub-50K prints often signals recession is knocking. But weak data just boosts rate-cut hopes. Markets now expect two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts by year-end, the first likely in September. The US 2-year yield fell below 3.90%, limiting equity downside — the S&P 500 closed flat. Magic! Listen to find out more!

Looks like Ethereum is heavily refocusing to get back into the bullmarket action! 00:00 Intro 00:24 Disclaimer 00:29 Preview 00:49 Bitcoin 03:35 Ethereum 06:35 Ripple 08:19 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Market performance was surprisingly strong yesterday, especially considering the day began in the US with a sharp downgrade in global growth projections from the OECD. The trade headlines were also negative while the economic data was mixed and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is reluctant to move due to rising inflation expectations. So it’s probably FOMO—and it feels fragile. Today, investors will watch the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing data for fresh insights into US economic strength. Strong numbers may support further gains while soft figures Maybe could trigger a pullback. Or maybe not. Markets seem to have their own agenda, and the fear of missing a potential rally appears enough to fuel optimism—no matter how weak the forecasts, or the data. Listen to find out more!

The month of June started on a bearish note, as renewed trade tensions and mixed economic data dominated the headlines. Trade tensions are now accompanied by military tensions. The British PM announced yesterday at the government’s Strategic Defense Review that £15bn will be spent to bring Britain up to ‘war-fighting readiness’. Needless to say, European defense stocks cheered the news: Select Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF gained another 1.63%, also reaching a new record, while the rest of the Stoxx 600 remained muted. Gold rallied to a three-week high on the back of renewed geopolitical jitters, while USDCHF sank below the 0.82 mark amid flight to safety—toward the Swiss economy, which expanded by 2% in Q1. In the US, the S&P500 managed to shrug off trade anxieties while the Japanese 10-year auction saw stronger-than-expected demand and pulled the 10-year JGB yield below the 1.50% mark. Notably, increased demand for Japanese government bonds has tended to coincide with selling pressure in the S&P500 since last summer—largely due to the unwinding of Japanese carry trades, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets. As such, relatively high Japanese yields increase the risk of reverse carry trades and should be watched closely. Listen to find out more!

Welcome to June. So we’re in June. The month of May ended with a whopping 6% advance for the S&P500, defying the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ adage on Wall Street that points to a generally unfavourable seasonal trend for the month. But the S&P500’s performance is hiding a few issues on the US debt and global trade fronts: trade tensions are rising between the US and EU/China, oil prices are up on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and risk appetite is limited this morning, except for defense and energy companies. This week, investors will watch the PMI figures, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada (BoC) decisions, the US jobs data, and earnings from Crowdstrike and Broadcom. Listen to find out more!

What began as early trade optimism yesterday – triggered by the US Court of International Trade deeming Trump’s tariffs illegal – turned out to be too good to be true. Things quickly got messy when Trump appealed the decision, prompting the US Court of Appeals to pause the ruling in order to review arguments from both sides. Meanwhile, a separate federal court issued a similar but more limited decision on the tariffs. As a result, the initial ruling that had cancelled the tariffs is now effectively on hold. So it’s under this heavy cloud of uncertainty that the early risk-on rally yesterday fizzled out. Ongoing uncertainty around US fiscal and trade policy continues to weigh on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the economic impact of aggressive Trump policies – both on trade and government offices – is starting to show in the data. Figures released yesterday confirmed a contraction in US GDP in Q1, with spending growth more than halving and the trade deficit ballooning as firms rushed to import goods ahead of possible tariffs. Inventories rose. A key price gauge showed a sharp reversal in inflation pressures. Today’s PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – could surprise to the downside or meet expectations, but the full effects of the ‘tariff tsunami’ likely haven’t reached shore yet. The data will need to be taken with a pinch of salt. In energy, US crude wavers around the $60pb before OPEC confirms a third big output hike this weekend. Listen to find out more!

Nvidia below past earnings despite the Chinese hit and a US court deemed Trump’s tariffs illegal. The markets are up this morning, the US dollar gains, gold and franc retreat. US and European leaders are scheduled to speak today, but the court ruling may shift the tone of those talks. At this point, it’s unclear whether trade negotiations are even necessary anymore. European markets are closed today due to Ascension Day, so while futures are trading higher, the thin volumes could exaggerate market moves – and it looks like the good news will get the support. Listen to find out more!

Market mood is astonishingly great this week on the back of a global decline in yields, triggered by the Japanese government’s will to adjust the size of its bond issuance amid a selloff in long-maturity bonds sent 30- to 40-year JGB yields to all-time highs. The rally in Japanese bonds helped pull the US 30-year yield below the 5% mark. And optimism from falling sovereign yields was compounded by better-than-expected US durable goods orders in April and a surprise rebound in consumer confidence in May. The Conference Board’s gauge posted the biggest monthly gain in four years and exceeded all estimates. But that confidence gauge doesn’t capture the latest 50% tariff threats on American imports of European products, the uncertain and unilaterally shifting deadlines, or warnings from companies like Walmart that price hikes from tariffs will impact a broad range of goods. And trade risks and swelling government debt worries remain. So to me, the 2% rally in the S&P 500 seems exaggerated. Futures are slightly in the red today, PDD announced disappointing results, while Nvidia is due to reveal its own quarterly earnings after the bell! Listen to find out more!

The week started on a slow but hopeful note for European markets, with expectations that Trump’s latest 50% tariff threat on European imports would accelerate negotiations but that market optimism fascinates me. European markets are flirting with ATH levels, US futures were also up yesterday—but the reality is that with every piece of incoming information, the collective welfare deteriorates. Still, moving forward, fresh deals between the US and major trade partners could further boost market sentiment and send indices on both sides of the Atlantic to fresh ATH levels—but whether that optimism lasts is yet to be seen. The economic data—especially the inflation metrics—will be crucial. The US dollar is better bid this morning, but remains under pressure from trade tensions and the worsening perception of the US’s ballooning debt. The debt issues are also making the headlines in Japan. The 30- and 40-year JGB yields have recently spiked to the highest levels on record, and the 10-year yield hit the highest since 2009. Listen to find out more!

Trade headlines are accelerating again. Markets ended last week on a sour note after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on European imports by June 1st, prompting a sharp selloff in major US and European indices. He also warned that Apple could face a 25% tariff unless it relocates its production to the US. Yet, sentiment has shifted sharply this morning. The Nikkei 225 rose more than 1.7%, buoyed by hopes that the US and Japan are progressing toward a trade deal. European and US futures rebounded on news that the 50% EU tariff threat will be postponed to June 9th... Selling pressure on the US dollar continues, driven by renewed trade frictions and swelling concerns over US debt. The dollar index is nearing its April lows, while the EURUSD has opened the week on strong footing—partly in relief over the delayed EU tariff deadline, though it's worth noting the euro was already rising on Friday when the tariff threat emerged. The euro appears to be acting as both a safe haven and a risk-on asset amid trade headlines. Cable surged past 1.35 for the first time in over three years, while the USDJPY looks poised to test the 142 level to the downside, gold continues to hold above $3,300 per ounce, supported by trade and debt uncertainties and Bitcoin is catching a bid amid capital outflows from the dollar and growing adoption by institutional players. The week will bring fresh inflation reports from major Eurozone economies and Japan, a likely rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the US GDP and PCE updates and Nvidia earnings! Listen to find out more!

The selloff in US equities eased yesterday as pressure in the bond space declined. But the news is far from reassuring for a sustainable relief: US politicians continue to turn a blind eye to the stress building in the sovereign bond space. The House of Representatives passed Trump’s ‘beautiful’ tax bill yesterday—with just one vote. But one vote is all it takes to send the bill to the Senate, which is narrowly controlled by the same Republicans who proposed it. As such, US yields have eased slightly but the crisis is far from over. The US dollar was better bid during the Thursday session, though selling pressure returned in Asia. In contrast, Europe’s PMI data disappointed but the euro is performing well against a basket of G7 currencies. Lower energy prices and increased issuance of euro-denominated bonds are also supportive of the euro appetite. In commodities, crude oil prices took another hit yesterday after reports emerged that OPEC+ is considering a sizable production hike in July—reportedly 411,000 barrels per day—to meet growing demand. Any escalation in Middle East tensions could trigger a spike in prices and may present interesting tactical opportunities, but they are likely to be short-lived. Listen to find out more!

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It’s Thursday, and so far this week, US debt concerns have overshadowed Middle East optimism, trade tensions, and even a fresh all-time high for Bitcoin. The turning point was last Friday’s credit outlook downgrade by Moody’s, which was quickly followed by a political debate around the budget. In this episode we will dive into the guts of the US debt market, why US could afford to push its debt exponentially higher, why it could no longer do so, and what are the risks and alternatives. In the markets, the surge in yields weighed heavily on equities. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq retreated 1.34%. On the earnings front, both Home Depot and Lowe’s reported better-than-expected results, and HD said it has no plans to raise prices due to tariffs, as about half of its products are sourced domestically. But other retailers are less shielded. Walmart previously stated it would raise prices in response to tariffs, while Target missed both Q1 revenue and earnings, cut its full-year guidance, and cited tariff uncertainty, weak consumer sentiment, and backlash from rolling back DEI initiatives in January. Listen to find out more!

US equities retreated yesterday—ending a six-day rally—and the US dollar weakened as the selloff in long-term US Treasuries continued. Crude oil jumped on reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Safe haven assets surged, while the US dollar was left behind in the safe-haven race. Option traders remain pessimistic about the dollar’s prospects for 2025. The one-year risk reversals—a gauge that reflects whether investors are hedging more with calls or puts—have dropped to the most negative level on record, according to Bloomberg. Listen to find out more!

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered their interest rates today, hoping to tame and counter the negative impact of the global trade war on their economies and job markets. The moves were expected and received mixed reactions across stock markets. The CSI 300 index and the Hang Seng gained, the latter was boosted by CATL’s IPO, which went according to plan and led to a 14% surge in its Hong Kong debut. Meanwhile, the ASX gave back earlier gains as trade headlines are turning sour. In Europe, the EU and the UK sealed their most comprehensive deal since Brexit and pledged ‘to discuss British access’ to Europe’s €150 billion defense fund. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defence ETF soared 2% to a fresh high. In the US, investors shrugged off rating downgrade news, yields reversed advance, the S&P500 eked out small gain. Nvidia’s plans to open the door to third-party chips in its AI infrastructure was applauded. Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings are in focus as investors complete the US consumer picture in the midst of trade turmoil. Listen to find out more!

The week starts with a jump in US yields and a weaker dollar after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from the top Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns about the US’ rapidly rising debt toward the $37 trillion mark. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the downgrade and attempted to shift attention to the sharp tariff hikes that may be announced in the next two to three weeks. This means that the market optimism seen just a week ago — following an agreement between the US and China to talk while lowering tariffs during a 90-day window — is losing strength. In Asia, the week begins with losses across major indices. Gold, franc, yen and euro are up, index futures are under pressure. On the economic calendar, both China and Australia are expected to cut rates this week to counter the fallout from trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, UK inflation data out Wednesday is expected to show a sharp increase in headline CPI. Flash PMI data on Thursday will offer a sense of field-level sentiment. Listen to find out more!

Market sentiment remained tilted toward the upside across the US and European markets yesterday. In Europe, UK growth and eurozone industrial production surprised to the upside, while in the US, the data pointed at economic slowdown but sharp decline in producer prices tempered stagflation worries... but Walmart killed joy saying that they will increase the prices of their products according to tariffs. As such, uncertainties persist, the US dollar index remains under pressure, and the dollar’s weakness and majors recover early-week losses. In China, Alibaba’s profit missed estimates and led to a 7.5% selloff in the company’s shares yesterday but growth in cloud revenue remained strong and company said that AI-related products see triple-digit growth. Listen to find out more!

The news of fresh deals is coming in from the Middle East as Donald Trump seems very successful in getting the oil- and gas-rich countries to buy stuff from the US – including chips and planes – but appetite for trade optimism is starting to show signs of exhaustion. Despite the announcement of a $243bn deal with Qatar on top of the $600bn deal with Saudi Arabia, the S&P500 traded flat on Wednesday. In China, Tencent announced slightly better-than-expected revenue in Q1. Its net profit grew 82% compared to the same period last year – but still fell short of analyst expectations and Alibaba will announce its own results later today, and the focus will be on AI and cloud revenues. Note that the Chinese AI story is developing and the Chinese Tech companies’ valuations remain cheaper than the US peers. Listen to find out more!

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Trade news keeps getting better. Yesterday, it was the chipmakers’ turn to lead the rally, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman pledged to spend as much as $1 trillion in commercial deals with the US, while Jensen Huang announced in Riyadh that the company will be selling chips to the Saudi Arabian AI company Humain for a massive data center project. Chip stocks led a broad-based US equity rally while gains in Europe remained limited. On the macro side, investors also digested the latest US inflation report — which showed prices rising last month, but less than expected on a monthly basis. On a yearly basis, the headline rate eased to 2.3% — the lowest since spring 2021 — marking the third straight month of a softer-than-expected print. But the news were overshadowed by the tariff fears and didn’t improve Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Across the channel, the surprise rise in the eurozone inflation softens the European Central Bank (ECB) doves’ hands, while in the UK, dovish voices are rising for the Bank of England (BoE) to cut – giving support to sterling against both the US dollar and the single currency. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with the news that the US and China would announce ‘substantial’ progress in trade negotiations — and the progress was indeed close to substantial. Markets rallied with joy, gold and the franc softened, the US dollar rallied, US treasuries retreated. Gains are being given back today as European and US futures are also down — a bit of a hangover after yesterday’s party, a moment to question how good the news really is, and how long the truce might last. Recent days have brought major progress to the table, this isn’t the end. Talks could be interrupted at any point, as strategic decoupling between the US and China will continue for national security reasons — keeping pressure on key sectors, including semiconductors. The so-called de minimis exemption that allows cheap Chinese products into the US remains at 120% — meaning Shein and PDD won’t massively benefit from the tariff relief. And of course, uncertainty over what happens after the 90-day pause will keep many companies in wait-and-see mode, delaying investment decisions until a more durable truce emerges. Today, investors are walking into the US CPI update with a lighter heart. There’s a chance that the 90-day tariff pause — along with the latest dip in consumer sentiment — could help temper inflationary pressures in the US and give the Fed more room to act, if needed. A softer-than-expected data could further fuel appetite while an unpleasantly stronger read could be taken with a pinch of salt. Listen to find out more!

The weekend brought good news. The negotiations between American and Chinese officials this weekend in Geneva went well – apparently – as US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that ‘substantial progress was made.’ The foretaste of de-escalation is giving a boost to risk appetite this morning –although pharma stocks are under pressure on Trump’s plans to order a cut in US prescription drug costs – he doesn’t want Americans to pay more than people in countries with the lowest price... In FX, the US dollar is slightly softer this morning – on the back of trade optimism – while the Swiss franc and gold retreat. This week, investors will focus on the trade developments, Chinese Big Tech and Walmart results and US CPI update. Listen to find out more!

Not only do we have a new pope this week, but we also have the first deal in Trump’s global trade war, this time between the UK and the US. Trump’s enthusiastic announcement, complete with a lot of CAPITAL LETTERS, helped inflate sentiment, making this US-UK deal feel bigger than it actually is. Still, the news of the US-UK deal resonated positively across global financial markets and all eyes are on the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese high-level officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss tariffs. Further de-escalation could boost equities and the US dollar further and pull gold and Swiss franc lower. In energy, the week ends on a better note than it started. US crude is back at the $60pb level after an early-week plunge to $55 on news that OPEC would accelerate plans to restore output — for reasons that remain unclear. Listen to find out more!