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Markets are on edge as Fed Governor Lisa Cook refuses to step down amid Trump’s push to replace her, sparking fears over central bank independence. US yield curve is steepening, the US dollar wavers while the S&P 500 prints record-high valuations despite stronger-than-expected quarterly results. Overseas, Japanese yields ease while inflation cools, giving the USDJPY room to clear 148 offers. In Europe, political uncertainty in France rattles the euro and CAC 40, while Denmark’s Ørsted plunges after US project delays highlight the risks for renewable energy under Trump. Safe havens like gold rebound and US crude tests $65pb offers amid stalled Ukraine talks. Listen to find out more!

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was surprisingly dovish. Investors lapped up his words, betting that the first Fed rate cut since last September is now only weeks away. Markets cheered: the S&P 500 brushed against record highs, small caps soared, and Asian equities followed suit. Chinese chipmakers rocketed on expectations of more stimulus and a bold pivot away from Nvidia. Meanwhile, Nvidia itself takes center stage this week with Q2 earnings that could make or break tech sentiment. The big question is whether US GDP and PCE data will derail the Fed’s dovish tilt—or confirm a further rate relief. Listen to find out more!

Markets are on edge ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. After a string of weak job reports and sticky inflation signals, investors are questioning whether the Fed is still on track for a September rate cut. Market-implied odds of a 25bp move have already slipped from near certainty last week to around 75% today. Jackson Hole has a history of delivering major policy surprises — from Bernanke’s QE hints to Powell’s 2020 framework shift. Could this be the moment the Fed resets expectations again? Powell will tell. Listen to find out more!

Rough week for cryptos, can BTC's support hold up or will we see lows in the coming weeks? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Disclaimer 00:27 Preview 00:42 Bitcoin 04:12 Ethereum 06:34 Solana 07:32 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes spooked investors, accelerating the tech-led selloff. Officials remain worried about inflation, signaling they’d act before cutting rates, though the meeting occurred before the weak July jobs data hit. Powell’s speech tomorrow is expected to strike a balance—acknowledging labor market worries but keeping inflation top of mind. The US 2-30 year spread is widening on rate-cut concerns and rising debt costs. Big Tech continues to weigh on equities, though TSMC futures are up 1.3% and Nvidia rebounded after dipping below $170, hinting at a potential cooling of the tech selloff. Globally, Japan’s 30-year JGB yield is testing multi-decade highs, raising the risk of reverse carry trades. PMI data show mixed signals: strong growth in India, contraction in Japan, and will probably confirm slow European activity pickup. Markets are eyeing Jackson Hole for Powell’s guidance, while oil waits for details over Ukraine. Listen to find out more!

The AI trade may hit a reality check. Nasdaq tumbled as Big Tech names sold off sharply — Palantir plunged nearly 10%, Nvidia slid more than 3%, and other AI-linked stocks from Arm to AMD lost ground following a blunt MIT report showing 95% of companies investing in generative AI are yet to see returns, combined with OpenAI’s Sam Altman warning that valuations have become “insane.” Intel was the surprise winner, boosted by SoftBank’s $2bn stake announcement after weeks of political drama and government intervention. But even that comes with risks, as questions swirl over whether AI investment is a boom… or a bubble about to burst. Meanwhile, investors are piling into “disaster puts,” sending put skew to a 3-year high, just as Jerome Powell heads to Jackson Hole. Will the Fed soothe markets, or spark a deeper selloff? Listen to find out more!

Markets are caught between peace hopes and policy uncertainty. Zelensky’s smooth reception in Washington raised optimism for a lasting truce, putting pressure on oil prices, while fresh attacks reminded traders that risks remain. Crude slipped back below $63pb, but optimism is already priced in. In individual news, Intel made headlines, tumbling after reports that Washington could take a 10% stake via Chips Act subsidies — a move that could reshape the balance between politics and profit. Meanwhile, European stocks waver, US futures look soft, and yields edge higher into big US retailer earnings, FOMC minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole address. Will Powell acknowledge weakening jobs data, or double down on inflation risks? With the Fed’s next move hanging in the balance, and valuations stretched to historic highs, markets may need a fresh catalyst. Listen to find out more!

Markets are opening the week with hope over fears. Trump’s meeting with Putin brought no new sanctions or tensions, keeping crude under pressure — but the real spotlight is on today’s summit with Zelenskyy and key European allies as Trump will relay Moscow’s demands to end the war. Will progress be made, or will disappointment bring oil bulls back? This morning, US crude rebounds from an early dip. Equities are firm, the US dollar softer, and gold in demand as investors hedge the risks. Next hours will be important for sentiment and direction. Besides Trump, eyes will turn to Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later this week. The questions is: will geopolitics and central banks keep markets steady — or is volatility about to return? Listen to find out more!

Who's going for the all time, BTC or ETH? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Disclaimer 00:28 Preview 00:40 Bitcoin 02:45 Ethereum 06:34 Solana 07:08 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts — with September odds split between a 25bp trim and whispers of a jumbo 50bp move. Softer CPI data fuelled dovish bets, but today’s PPI report could throw cold water on the frenzy if tariff-led costs push prices higher. Bond yields are testing recent lows, the dollar is down for a third straight session, and Bitcoin’s at fresh records. US stocks hit new highs, with small- and mid-caps rallying on lower-rate hopes, while Nvidia slipped after CoreWeave’s bigger-than-expected loss. Abroad, the Nikkei fell on BoJ hike talk, but Japanese tech still looks appealing. Chinese equities shine with Tencent and Alibaba’s AI-driven growth powering the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index nearly 30% higher since April. Is the market underestimating inflation risks — and could an outsized cut backfire? Listen to find out more!

Attention: This was last week's episode, this week's episode will come out tomorrow (13.8.25)! Are ETFs destroying crypto's volatility factor that traders love? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Disclaimer 00:28 Preview 00:45 Bitcoin 03:40 Ethereum 06:10 Solana 08:15 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Trump extended the tariff truce with China – which was set to expire today – by 90 more days, announced that gold will finally not be tariffed, and confirmed that Nvidia and AMD will pay the US government a 15% cut of their Chinese sales. He also said that his upcoming talk with the Russian President Putin will hardly lead to a sustainable truce if Ukraine doesn’t cede territory. As a result, Chinese chipmaker SMIC is better bid today, gold and crude oil rebound, while equities futures are timidly in the positive ahead of the all-important US CPI release due later today. Listen to find out more!

This week starts with optimism in global markets as Asian indices and US futures open higher. The S&P 500 just posted its strongest week since June, driven by solid earnings and hopes for progress in Ukraine. Trade tensions have eased somewhat, boosting European stocks. Energy markets are under pressure, with oil prices in a bearish zone after breaking key support levels, though upside risks prevail. Big news: Nvidia and AMD plan to pay the US government 15% of their Chinese chip sales to reduce export-restriction risks and gain more revenue transparency. This unusual move raises questions about national security priorities versus financial interests. AI investors will watch CoreWeave earnings closely, while cybersecurity stocks face seasonal pressure — presenting potential buying opportunities for long-term exposure. Listen to find out more!

European stocks rallied on Trump-fueled hopes of brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine—but that optimism is fading fast. Defense names slid after Rheinmetall’s disappointing results, while BAE and Leonardo offered mixed signals. Meanwhile, Switzerland left Washington with no tariff relief, and a 39% levy looms over exports. In the US, oil broke below $65pb, jobless claims surged, and inflation expectations jumped—classic stagflation territory. Yet markets are betting on more Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts, especially with Stephen Miran expected to replace Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller floated as the next Fed Chair. Tech continues to be the market’s virtual comfort zone, as AI demand defies macro noise. Japan’s SoftBank and Sony hit highs, while US chipmakers like Nvidia rallied on tariff protectionism that exempt them from 100% tariffs. Listen to find out more!

Tariff news is anything but soothing. Allies are spooked. Apple’s throwing $600 billion on the table — just to keep Trump calm. Welcome to The Trump Order — where global trade bends to one man’s will. India and Switzerland are caught in the crosshairs of aggressive new tariffs. Big Pharma could face duties of up to 250%. Apple is rushing to shift iPhone production to the U.S., but these relocations will likely accelerate AI adoption rather than boost jobs. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. bonds weakened this week — but yields remain contained as the Fed faces pressure to cut rates regardless of inflation data. If trust in U.S. inflation numbers erodes, the $2 trillion TIPS market could take a hit. Gold might benefit as a hedge, but Bitcoin’s inflation credentials remain statistically weak. The ECB and BoE are also walking a tightrope. The BoE is expected to cut 25bps — but whether it’s a hawkish or dovish cut will shape sterling sentiment. Listen to find out more!

Mixed PMI data, sticky inflation, and a reality check for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut hopes are on the menu of today’s episode. Slower US service activity and hotter-than-expected price pressures have markets rethinking (but just a little) about a September rate cut, sending 2-year yields climbing. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats — including on chips, drugs, and even countries buying Russian oil — are fueling trade chaos. Equities look mixed, though tech stars like Palantir defied the trend. In Europe, luxury struggles, but defense and tech stand tall. Shell and BP beat expectations despite earnings declines, focusing on shareholder returns over aggressive green spending. Saudi Aramco continues to borrow to pay dividends, while oil flirts with key support on mixed signals — from a possible Russia-Ukraine air truce to Trump’s tariff threats on Indian oil flows. Will oil crack lower? Can the Fed actually cut rates in this environment? And how will Europe navigate the digital age with no real leverage? Listen to find out more!

Markets kicked off the week with a bang as dip buyers jumped in, brushing off last week’s correction. With retail traders driving the rally and institutional investors still holding short positions, the S&P500 just had its best day since May. So, what’s fueling this optimism? Strong tech earnings, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a belief that bad news is good news. But not everyone’s convinced. Bears point to narrow profit growth outside of tech, sticky inflation, and uncertainty on every front—from geopolitics to tariffs. In this episode, we break down the bullish and bearish arguments, dive into bond and FX moves, and look ahead to key catalysts like AMD earnings and central bank decisions. Will the rally stick, or is a correction around the corner? Listen to find out more!

Tariff chaos, a weakening US economy, Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and an AI-driven tech rally — all in just two weeks. Market sentiment is turning sour even though the Fed cut expectations mount and the S&P500 earnings beat expectations. But is the S&P 500’s strength overstated? Are markets ignoring the recession signals? And who really pays for all these tariffs? Listen to find out more!

We're finishing a volatile week, but how's August going to be? More volatility or more bullrun action? 00:00 Intro 00:24 Disclaimer 00:29 Preview 00:53 Bitcoin 03:59 Ethereum 06:39 Solana 09:00 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Markets don’t move on news — they move on surprises. In this episode, we dive into one of the most misunderstood concepts in trading: the difference between positioning and sentiment. What are hedge funds really betting on? What do retail traders say they feel — and what does that actually mean for price action? We explore how to read the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report, how to interpret retail sentiment, and why combining these tools can help you spot potential squeezes, reversals, and turning points before they happen. If you’ve ever wondered what’s already “priced in,” this one’s for you. Listen to find out more!

In this episode, we break down ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) — what they are, how they work, and why they’ve exploded in popularity over the past decade. Whether you’re looking to invest in clean energy, global tech, emerging markets, or even short specific sectors, there’s likely an ETF tailored to your strategy. Learn how ETFs offer diversification, low fees, and easy trading—and discover the difference between broad market ETFs, sector-specific ETFs, and thematic funds. We also explore how ETFs can reduce risk compared to picking individual stocks, and how investors are using them to fine-tune their exposure to the US and global markets. Listen to find out more!

When inflation is back in the spotlight—and it’s eating into your money, how do investors protect themselves when the value of cash drops? In this episode, we explore the best assets to hedge against inflation—from gold and commodities to dividend-paying stocks, TIPS, and real estate. We unpack why these tools matter, how they perform in inflationary cycles, and how to use them wisely in your portfolio. Whether you’re a long-term investor or just starting out, this is your go-to guide to navigating inflation with confidence. Listen to find out more!

Is Ethereum starting the altcoin season, or is it already over? 00:00 Intro 00:26 Disclaimer 00:31 Preview 00:49 Bitcoin 05:00 Ethereum 06:50 Solana 09:00 Aave 10:26 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

In this follow-up to our episode on inflation, we zoom in on one of the most underrated yet powerful forces shaping monetary policy and market moves: inflation expectations. What do people think prices will do in the future? Those expectations can actually fuel real inflation through wage demands, spending behavior, and corporate pricing decisions. In this episode, we connect the dots between expectations, wage growth, and employment data—and explain how investors interpret all of it. From the Phillips Curve to the iconic US NFP Friday, we explore how jobs and wage data affect rate expectations, market sentiment, and asset prices. Why does “bad news” sometimes become “good news” for equities? Why do central banks fear a wage-inflation spiral? And how have post-pandemic inflation spikes changed the game for investors? Listen to find out more!

Inflation is everywhere—in the headlines, in central bank decisions, and in the market moves that follow. In this episode, we break down what inflation really is, how it’s measured, and why it matters so much to central banks, investors, and asset prices. From CPI and PCE to core and supercore inflation, we explore the tools used to track price pressures and how they influence interest rates, currencies, and equity valuations. We also unpack tricky concepts like stagflation and inflationary spirals, giving you the full picture of how inflation drives market sentiment—and why softer or hotter inflation prints instantly move markets. Listen to find out more!

Japan will hold Upper House elections this Sunday. While Japanese politics may seem distant, the implications could ripple far beyond Tokyo—especially through the Japanese yen, carry trades, and global risk appetite. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the midst of policy normalization and Japanese yields on the rise, the outcome of Sunday’s vote could shift global asset flows. In this episode, we explore two key election scenarios—whether the ruling LDP keeps its majority or loses it—and what each could mean for Japanese equities, government bonds, and the yen. We also look at the potential for wider global market moves, including possible reactions in the US and Europe. Listen to find out more!

Trump’s rumoured plan to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell sent markets into a frenzy — a sharp selloff followed by a sudden rebound. The dollar tanked, yields dropped, and traders braced for impact before Trump walked it all back, saying he was only ‘discussing it in concept.’ But the damage is long done: questions about Fed independence, market credibility, and policy chaos are back on the table. In this episode, we unpack the political drama shaking the markets, why the Fed’s credibility matters more than ever, and what could be next for the dollar, Treasuries, and risk assets. Elsewhere, we also discuss strong bank earnings, and what to expect from Google’s upcoming hardware launch. As volatility creeps back in, we ask: is the Fed still the market’s safety net — or is that illusion breaking down? Listen to find out more!

Markets are holding steady despite a weekend full of warning signs: fresh tariff threats from the US, retaliation plans from the EU, and a sharp spike in global bond yields. While investors are banking on negotiations to smooth over the tension — and Nvidia’s China news adds a bit of optimism — cracks are starting to show. Japan’s 30-year yield hit multi-year highs, and US and European yields are climbing too, hinting at rising borrowing costs just as Q2 earnings season kicks off. Are markets ignoring too many risks? From inflation pressures to currency mismatches and corporate margin squeezes, the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals may not hold forever. CPI data, big bank earnings, and sovereign yields could hold the key to a potential summer shake-up. Listen to find out more!

Donald Trump threatened the EU and Mexico with 30% US tariffs over the weekend — triple what the Europeans expected. While the UK appears to have secured a ‘privileged’ 10% rate, weak UK growth data and fresh trade uncertainty are pressuring sterling. In Asia, the USDJPY rises despite soft dollar sentiment as Japan’s elections and fiscal expectations push yields higher. China posts better-than-expected export data, but tensions with Europe are rising as pricing wars escalate. Silver outshines gold, Bitcoin pushes past $120K, and earnings season kicks off with major banks and Netflix. Listen to find out more!

Markets shrugged off a wave of new US tariffs this week — including eye-popping 50% duties on copper and Brazilian goods — with major indices like the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time highs. From strong airline earnings to a boost in AI enthusiasm led by Nvidia, investor optimism stayed intact despite growing geopolitical and economic headwinds. We also look at how the US dollar is reacting to shifting debt and tariff expectations, what’s driving Japanese government bonds ahead of the Upper House elections, and why oil prices remain under pressure even with rising Red Sea tensions and fresh threats of sanctions on Russian crude. Plus, with earnings season just days away, we explore how lower growth expectations and a weaker dollar might set the stage for upside surprises. Are markets due for a reality check — or is this rally still gaining traction? Listen to find out more!

Bitcoin's ATH is underlined by the strong BTC ETF performance these days. _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Tariff headlines keep rolling in — from 50% levies on Brazilian exports to a pending decision on the EU — but markets remain resilient. European equities gained, and the Nasdaq reached new highs, helped by a sharp intraday rally in Nvidia. The company briefly rose over 2%, becoming the world’s first to hit a $4 trillion valuation. Elsewhere, Amazon’s Prime Day started stronger than expected, Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes showed diverging views on the inflationary impact of tariffs, and the US dollar softened as rate-cut bets gained traction. Crude oil tests the 200-DMA resistance while the gap between US copper futures with the rest of the world is disquieting. Listen to find out more!

European markets are on edge as rising US tariffs collide with hopeful trade negotiations with the EU. But optimism elsewhere fade as the latest tariff pause expires and President Trump threatens no extensions beyond August 1. Meanwhile, a surprise 50% levy on copper has sent COMEX futures to record highs even as prices on India’s MCX pull back. With inflationary pressures mounting—fed by both tariffs and unexpected mass deportations that could subtract a full percentage point from GDP and nudge prices up by 0.16–0.21 points—the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a critical dilemma in the second half of 2025. Discover which sectors and asset classes offer the strongest inflation hedge in this volatile environment, from consumer staples and healthcare to metals and mining ETFs. Listen to find out more!

Markets are brushing off 25–40% tariffs like they’re just minor annoyances. But the US is back to tariff warfare, inflation is knocking, repatriation risks from Japan are rising — and yet, equities barely flinch. The S&P 500 is near ATH levels, the Nikkei rebounds, and the Stoxx 600 marches on. The new negotiation deadline is pushed to August 1st, but somehow that’s good news? Businesses can’t hold prices down forever, and consumers may soon feel the pinch. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is stuck between rising inflation and slowing growth. But sure — let’s keep buying risk. It must be unicorns holding it all together.🦄 But while the party continues as long is music is one, we dig into tariff risks, earnings risks, potential JGB yield shocks, the Fed’s dilemma and FX moves. Listen to find out more!

The week starts with renewed pressure on oil prices as OPEC decided to ramp up its production restoration plans by announcing an additional 548,000 barrels per day—well above the 411,000 increase expected, and renewed pressure on risk appetite as the July 9th deadline approaches fast. Within two days, the Trump administration is expected to announce its tariff decision for trading partners. Asian traders kicked off the week cautiously. The US dollar is surprisingly higher this morning, while the selloff in oil was contained, perhaps on repricing of geopolitical tensions. Listen to find out more!

This was last week's episode, uploaded now. When there is war, there is crisis. But shouldn't Bitcoin be crisis resistant? #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records, while small-caps join the party. And that’s despite jobs data that killed July Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut hopes—odds dropped from 27% to just 5%! Yields spiked, the dollar jumped... but stocks still climbed. Why? Digging deeper, the jobs data wasn’t as strong as it looked. Job gains came from public education, and unemployment fell only because people left the labour force. Wages slowed—good for the Fed—but now it’s tariffs fueling inflation fears. Trump’s new deal with Vietnam hints at double-digit tariffs. Add his $3.3 trillion ‘reverse Robin Hood’ tax bill, and debt fears are back. Gold is rising. Futures are down. And the market? Priced for perfection. How long can this rally last? Listen to find out more!

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high yesterday, boosted by a 4% jump in Nike shares — now up 45% since April’s dip on the back of the US–Vietnam trade deal and relaxed chip design exports toward China. But the tariffs remain significantly high – and will likely boost inflation – the economic data is weakening but not enough to get the Fed to cut the rates when inflation expectations are rising – and the Western sovereign bonds start giving fresh signs of stress. In summary, there are cracks beneath the record high equity prices. And this episode is detailing them! Listen to find out more!

Unexpectedly, there will be a Solana ETF, even with a staking element! What's the story behind it? 00:00 Intro 00:23 Disclaimer 00:28 Preview 00:50 Bitcoin 02:10 Ethereum 03:57 Solana 05:54 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Rally in most major indices across Europe and the US paused yesterday, as Trump-driven optimism began to sour under the rocky glare of the summer sun. To top it off, yesterday’s US data did little to support those betting on an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. Most FOMC members still argue that cutting rates now would be a mistake, particularly as they expect inflation to rise due to tariffs in the coming months, and the labour market remains robust enough to wait. In fact, US job openings unexpectedly rose in May, the ISM Manufacturing Index showed slower contraction, and price pressures edged higher in June. Investors will keep focus on US jobs data today and tomorrow. Sufficiently strong figures could lead to an accelerated readjustment of Fed pricing, push yields higher and weigh on risk appetite. Listen to find out more!

US equities ended Q2 at all-time highs. While headlines point to optimism around trade negotiations and potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, much of the recent rally appears to be driven by continued enthusiasm around AI. On the trade front, discussions with Japan remain tense, and talks with the EU may result in a universal 10% tariff without key sectors—like autos and luxury—receive exemptions. On the Fed front, Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned against rushing to cut rates, especially as the impact of new tariffs on inflation and growth remains unclear. Last week’s hotter-than-expected core PCE data reinforces that message, suggesting inflation may be turning back up. Earnings expectations have also been revised down, yet markets seem to be pricing in a best-case scenario. Eyes are on US jobs data. Any weakness could further revive the Fed doves and support the rally, but the red flags are rising. Listen to find out more!

De-escalation of the Middle East tensions and encouraging news from the trade front improve risk taking across global financial markets, leading gold and oil lower and boosting appetite for major currencies. The US dollar remains under pressure however on looming US debt worries while the Swiss franc remains in demand despite optimism globally. This week, investors will focus on European inflation figures, Trump’s tax bill—aimed to pass before the July 4th holiday, the latest US jobs report and a series of final PMI prints. In energy markets, oil prices are worth watching as they give back the Middle East–led gains. WTI crude is sitting on a key Fibonacci support near $65 per barrel—the level that separates the year-to-date bearish trend from a potential medium-term bullish consolidation. Expectations that OPEC may announce a plan to bring more oil to market at its July 6 meeting could give bears the upper hand into the weekend. Listen to find out more!

The month of June is approaching its end with US equities having rebounded to their all-time high levels, fully brushing off the trade-war-led selloff between February and April this year. The rally looks stretched considering the US debt risks, high valuations, trade uncertainties and hardly funded dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. But stretched doesn’t mean it won’t continue. If investors are fed a steady diet of sugar, asset prices could keep inflating. And Trump may eventually give them what they want. The US and China have apparently reached a trade truce, the US administration said that 10 more deals could be imminent, and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she’s ready to negotiate when the US is — in an effort to reach an agreement before the July deadline. Meanwhile, US bank investors are cheering news of softer regulation on leverage rules this week, which could free up to $6 trillion in additional balance sheet capacity. As such, futures are in the green and the US dollar rebounds from 3-year lows. Listen to find out more!

Trump denied earlier intelligence reports suggesting that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused only limited damage. On the contrary, he claimed the operation was a historic success and even declared the war over — ‘except that it could maybe restart soon.’ Still, the US and Iran are scheduled to meet for diplomatic talks in Iran this weekend, which appears to be a signal that Trump genuinely wants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Oil is lower, US dollar is lower as well despite Powell’s reluctance to cut rates amid tariff uncertainties. But Powell could be bypassed by a premature appointment of next Fed Chair, without however a guarantee that the markets will absorb unjustified rate cuts. In all cases, the dollar continues to weaken, weaker dollar supports S&P500 revenue expectations but the S&P500 earnings should grow way faster than the dollar’s depreciation says Bloomberg Intelligence to be considered trading at ‘fair value’. Listen to find out more!

Tensions in the Middle East are deescalating and energy prices ease. Easing stress in energy markets is excellent news for everyone who doesn’t want to see higher oil prices translating into accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy. The combination of Middle East de-escalation and rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations sent the S&P 500 more than 1% higher—almost near a record high—while the Nasdaq printed a fresh closing high. The US dollar fell. But trade, debt and geopolitical risks loom and market mood feels overly optimistic when risks are taken in the consideration. Listen to find out more!

Middle East tensions suddenly waned after Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar — having reportedly informed the US in advance. As a result, the missiles were intercepted. President Trump called Iran’s move ‘weak’ and announced a few hours ago that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. Crude tumbled, gold and US dollar eased, and risk taking is improved. Gains in US indices are also supported by rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, while European indices remain under the pressure of trade uncertainties into the July 9th deadline. Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may temper dovish expectations during his semi-annual testimony, which begins today and continues tomorrow. He’s likely to maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high to justify a rate cut before the fall — especially amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Could he throw cold water on US equity optimism? Time will tell! Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with a jump in oil prices as the US got involved in Middle East tensions, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities with what they call ‘bunker busters’, oil prices jumped at the open, but gains have been given back since then, haven assets don’t show a particular sign of stress... Monday markets look like business as usual. Risks however are looming, and headlines could – maybe – wake up the pessimists?! Listen to find out more!