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The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered the second rate cut of the year yesterday. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed doesn’t rule ‘out or in’ a rate cut in December, that the US economy is expanding solidly, that conditions in the labour market eased but the unemployment rate remains low, that inflation ‘made progress’ but not a ‘further progress’ – just progress – toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains elevated’, that the Trump policies won’t have an immediate impact on the US fundamentals as they don’t know how much time it will take the new Trump administration to implement them, and that he wouldn’t step down if Trump asked him to do so. But the Fed has no choice but to dance to Trump’s tune, whether it likes it or not. That reality comes with the risk of higher-than-otherwise inflation and deserves careful attention. For now, the probability of another 25bp cut in December is given 71% in the immediate aftermath of the US election and the Fed cut. US yields and the dollar took a breather after the recent rally, and US equities renewed record. Listen to find out more!

The 2024 US election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump, with Republicans positioned to gain control of both houses of Congress. US equities gained, led by banks, energy stocks and small caps, Bitcoin and US dollar strengthened, gold and Swiss franc fell, along with a decline in metals and international equities, and major & EM currencies. While the US election clarity is cheered by some pockets of the market, there are rising uncertainties regarding how the anticipated pro-US growth policies and Trumpflation will resonate in the rest of the world, and at the Fed. In this new context (as says Emmanuel Macron), the Bank of England (BoE) has the hard task to deliver its first policy decision post-Trump. The BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bp today. The markets price in two more rate cuts by the end of next year, and gives a 35% chance for a third one. But the UK budget and the Trump win could complicate the plans. Listen to find out more!

Trump has almost won, but what does it mean for Bitcoin? 00:00 Intro 00:20 Preview 00:31 Bitcoin & the US election 07:38 The SEC 09:47 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

We’re on the cusp of the US election results. They’re starting to trickle in, pointing toward a more favourable outcome for the Republicans and Donald Trump. As a result, the so-called ‘Trump trade’ is in full swing this morning. The US yields are pushing higher, Bitcoin hits record, the US dollar is stronger against most currencies (even against gold and Swiss franc), and US equity futures advance while the European investors don’t smile. In earnings, Palantir hit record high on strong earnings and forecast on AI demand, semiconductors surfed on the news, while Saudi Aramco’s weak earnings get the OPEC-encouraged bulls to scratch their heads regarding Saudi’s future commitment to production cuts. That, along with Trump lead is weighing on oil prices this morning. Listen to find out more!

The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today’s US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight – and even a contested outcome. As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it’s the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr, Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment. But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors... Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump’s presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency. And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P500’s performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000’s tech bubble. Listen to find out more!

On Friday, the US announced a meagre 12K nonfarm job additions last month, the manufacturing and private nonfarm payrolls printed negative numbers. But the bright spot was that unemployment remained steady at 4.1% - suggesting that the NFP number probably took a one-off hit, and the wages continued to grow by 4% on a yearly basis. The market is now convinced that the Fed will announce another 25bp cut when it meets this week. That announcement is due Thursday, as before that we have the US election – on Tuesday. Even though the prediction markets have been in favour of a Trump victory, the CNN poll this morning prints a 48% chance for a Harris win, versus 47% assessed to a Trump victory. The worst possible outcome for the market would be a too close race and a contested outcome. In the short run, a Harris victory could bring relief to treasury and international markets, while a Trump victory could resonate louder – and not necessarily in a good way – for the euro and the European markets, due to the tariff threat. Elsewhere, oil kicked off the week better bid on weekend news that OPEC could delay the planned December increase to oil production by a month – or more – on the back of a persistent selloff in oil prices due to the unfavourable combination of weaker demand and strong output prospects. Listen to find out more!

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Equity selloff in Europe and US extended on Thursday. Technology stocks suffered the biggest losses after Microsoft and Meta were hit by a 6% and a 4% decline respectively. The US futures are slightly in the positive this morning, as Amazon and Intel rallied in the afterhours trading after releasing better-than-expected Q3 results. Today, US’ Big Oil companies will go to the earnings confessional and will certainly post weak numbers due to weak oil and gas prices as did their European peers throughout this week. But, given that the expectations are quite low, beating them is easier. Speaking of oil, the latest news on the wire suggests that Iran is preparing a response to Israel’s latest attack. As such, US crude cleared the $70pb offers yesterday. Elsewhere, gilts and sterling gave a delayed reaction to Wednesday’s budget while the US dollar index eased and tested the 200-DMA to the downside despite the stronger-than-expected core PCE figures, the weakening dovish Fed expectations and the rising yields. The yen strengthened after relatively hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) yesterday and the EURUSD rallied past the 200-DMA with the sight of a stronger than expected CPI update. However, US jobs data and the dollar will ultimately determine whether EURUSD closes the week above or below this level. Listen to find out more!

European and US markets nosedived yesterday on the back of ‘good news is bad news’ and the futures hint at a bearish start to Thursday’s session. Growth on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean came in better than expected, but inflation in the Eurozone ticked higher than expected and gave a positive jolt to the euro. UK budget on the other hand went quite smoothly for the pound. The bad news were countered by the tamed Bank of England (BoE) easing expectations. The BoJ refrained from changing policy today. For now, the US dollar remains bid despite yesterday’s weakness, the 2-year yield spiked higher – as the Fed doves scaled back their Federal Reserve (Fed) cut bets. Investors continue to monitor the jobs data... and earnings! Microsoft and Meta released their Q3 earnings yesterday, after the bell, and the results were good but the forecast and extra spending plans didn’t please, respectively. Apple and Amazon are due to announce earnings after the bell today. Listen to find out more!

Big Tech investors weren’t disappointed on Tuesday, as Alphabet announced better than expected results after the bell, but news at AMD were not enchanting, they gave a lacklustre revenue forecast for the current quarter, a message that raised worries about potentially slowing AI sales. Today, it’s Microsoft and Meta’s turn to reveal how well they did last quarter. The earnings announcements will continue with Apple and Amazon on Thursday – and Exxon and Chevron on Friday. But the latter may be less enthusiastic than the tech peers. BP yesterday announced the slowest profit growth in nearly four years due to weak oil prices. Speaking of oil prices, the barrel of US crude remained under a selling pressure yesterday, and is slightly better bid this morning on the back of a small decline in US oil inventories (API) but trend and momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside and strong resistance is eyed near the $70pb psychological level. On the data front, the first glimpse at the US jobs numbers were soothing for the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves. Today, all eyes are on the US ADP report, Australian and Eurozone inflation numbers and the UK’s budget announcement! Listen to find out more!

Equity markets across Europe and the US began the week on a positive footage, except for oil stocks. Energy companies were hit by a 5% dive in oil prices due to Israel’s targeted attack on Iranian military facilities. Oil giants like Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are expected to announce a combined 12% decline from the Q2 when they release their earnings throughout this week. In the FX, the US dollar consolidates near summer highs. The EURUSD regained the 1.08 handle but without much conviction from the euro bulls, Cable is offered near the 100-DMA, while the yen is slightly better bid this morning and the USDJPY is back below the 153, but the political jitters, there, probably call for an extended Bank of Japan (BoJ) support to the economy. The BoJ will announce its latest verdict on Thursday. But before that, investors’ attention will shift to the US jobs data starting from today with the JOLTS data due today, ADP tomorrow, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the official NFP, wages and unemployment rate due Friday. On the earnings front, Alphabet is the first Magnificent 7 company to go to the earnings confessional this week. Together, the US Big Tech companies are expected to announce around 18% growth in profit and – hopefully for Nvidia – massive increase to their AI spending. Nvidia will not be reporting its results for another month, but AMD results are also due today. Listen to find out more!

Crude oil kicked off the week with a more than 4% slump after Israel attacked the Iranian military facilities over the weekend. Not helping: the Chinese industrial profits fell 3.5% from January to September versus a meagre 0.5% printed a month earlier. In Japan, the market mood is not mixed. The country’s long-ruling coalition lost its majority at the weekend election, rising the political and economic uncertainty in the country and making the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate normalization path blurrier. In Europe, energy and mining-heavy FTSE futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, but the US counterparts are in the positive after having posted a mixed week during which the S&P500 eased 1%. But the selloff mostly hit the value names – because their earnings were less enchanting that the Big Tech’s. This week, 5 of the Magnificent 7 companies and Big Oil are due to report their earnings. The US will post the latest jobs figures, GDP update and the core PCE index, the Eurozone will publish growth and inflation updates as well, while the UK will reveal the October Budget. Listen to find out more!

Major stock indices across Europe and US were up on Thursday, after a few good-looking earnings across both continents including Hermes, Barclays, Unilever and Renault in Europe and Tesla and UPS in the US, gave a smile to investors after three cloudy sessions. Overall, the earnings season is going well in the US, less well in Europe. The latter also matches the macroeconomic news where data is strong in the US, and much less in Europe. The EURUSD remains under pressure of economic demise and rising dovish voices at the European Central Bank (ECB) that fuel the thinking that the ECB could, and should consider lowering rates by bigger chunks. In Japan, the yen is better bid but the USDJPY consolidates gains above the 150 level and the risks remain tilted to the upside into the election weekend, which could see the country’s ruling party lose its majority in the lower parliament for the first time since 2009. The latter would be bad for both the yen and the Japanese stocks. Finally in energy, US crude failed an attempt to clear the 50-DMA. Oil bulls may not be in peak form lately, risks tend to lean to the upside heading into weekends due to the potential for an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Listen to find out more!

The first three sessions of the week haven’t been appetizing as the US political uncertainties, the ongoing geopolitical jitters in the Middle East, and the mounting expectation that Federal Reserve (Fed) would slow down the pace of monetary easing pushed investors to the sidelines. Gold ran from record to record despite the rising US yields, and the broad-based USD appreciation. The EURUSD sold off to 1.0761 as the rate cut bets in the Eurozone remain strong on the back of inflation that seems under control and weak economic and corporate data. The USDJPY cleared the 150 resistance, pulled out the 200-DMA and is trading past the 152 as Cable slipped below the 100-DMA and remains under a selling pressure as the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey says that inflation in Britain is weakening faster than they anticipated. And the Loonie hit the lowest levels against the US dollar since the beginning of August after the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a 50bp cut yesterday, as expected. There will certainly be a correction and a consolidation to the US dollar rally, but unlikely before the US election. In equities, the European stocks remain under the pressure of weak earnings which is not true on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, where Tesla joined the crowd of US companies that announced better-than-expected quarterly results! Listen to find out more!

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The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its interest rates by 25bp yesterday, in a widely expected and priced in move. Chief Christine Lagarde sounded optimistic about the disinflationary process. The expectation now is that the ECB will cut its rates at every policy meeting until March. Next stop: December. As such, the Stoxx 600 gained and the euro sold off after the ECB decision. The EURUSD hit 1.0811 but the pair’s weakness was partly due to strong-looking economic data from the US. Corporate data is also on the bulls’ side. The stronger-than-expected TSM and Netflix earnings defy the waning need for unnecessary Fed cuts. Elsewhere, the latest data from China printed a slower-than-expected growth in the latest quarter, but industrial production and retail sales jumped more than expected in September. The CSI is set to close the week on an improved note and US crude should see support near $70pb level. Listen to find out more!

It’s yet another day of stimulus announcements in China, and another round of letdowns for investors. Chinese authorities today announced to almost double the amount it deployed to support what’s called ‘white list’ projects but investor appetite barely improved. Copper, iron ore futures are down and US crude is under pressure. Elsewhere, the US dollar extends gains across most majors. Softer-than-expected British and Canadian figures weigh on sterling and Loonie, while the EURUSD sank below the 200-DMA ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision and Lagarde’s post-decision presser. In equities, Morgan Stanley announced better-than-expected results as its peers and TSM earnings beat estimates hinting that Nvidia may have had another very good quarter. Listen to find out more!

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Europe’s biggest company revealed its results a day earlier – by accident – and the results were not good at all. ASML booked about half of the orders pencilled in by analysts last quarter as demand outside AI continued to struggle. Then, the US announced yesterday that it will restrict the advanced chip exports from Nvidia to AMD to countries that do have connections to Gulf countries, for national security reasons. The shares dipped. Elsewhere, crude oil sold off heavily for the second session on relief that Israel is planning to hit Iran’s military rather than its energy structure. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $70pb level. The US dollar consolidated gains, the EURUSD extended losses, while Cable sold off below the 1.30 on the back of softer-than-expected inflation report. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 hit its 46th record high of the year on Monday, Nvidia erased all the summer weakness and flirted with ATH levels as well after the company CEO Jensen Huang said that the next generation Blackwell chip – which suffered some delay – is now ‘in full production’ and that the demand for it ‘is insane’. Around 6% of the S&P500 companies revealed their earnings and nearly 80% reported a positive EPS surprise according to FactSet. And positive vibes could continue as we dive deeper into the earnings season. If nothing, analysts cut their earnings expectations for the Q3 gradually to around 4% growth, whereas this expectation was near 8% in summer. Yet the companies themselves have a guidance for about 16% growth in earnings. Today, Goldman, Bank of America and Citigroup will go to the earnings confessional, tomorrow Morgan Stanley, again tomorrow ASML, then on Thursday we will focus on TSM and Netflix results. Voila. Fasten your seat belt. In FX and commodities, the US dollar extends gains on softening dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and oil is down on fading China optimism, OPEC’s lower demand growth forecast and Netanyahu’s willingness to target Iran’s military rather than its oil facilities. Listen to find out more!

China said there will be a significant bond issuance to help reverse the deepening property crisis and local governments, but didn’t put numbers on their plans. Israel didn’t attack Iran but some reports hinted that the Israeli army could be narrowing their targets on military and energy infrastructure. As such, crude oil kicked off the week downbeat. The barrel of US crude is trading below the $75pb mark in the early ours of Monday trading, Chinese stocks are mixed, the Aussie is under pressure. In the US, Friday’s US producer price data was mixed, and the bank earnings were better-than-expected. The US dollar extended gains, and the S&P500 hit a fresh record. More earnings from big banks and Big Tech are due this week, along with a 25bp cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) that will accompany the latest Eurozone and UK CPI figures. Listen to find out more!

Oops. Inflation in the US came in hotter-than-expected in September and weighed on the mood at the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves’ camp. The US yields and the dollar strengthened, major US indices whipsawed, but the reaction was mixed and the markets traded up and down in disbelief that the Fed may have been wrong in cutting rates by 50bp last month. Due today, the PPI data could confirm that the last mile to bring inflation down to 2% won’t be a walk in the park. Either way, the bank earnings will steal a part of the investor attention to the earnings season today. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will open the dance, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Bank of America will report next week and provide some insights regarding the overall health of the economy. In energy, crude oil lower this morning but oil bulls could have a say into the weekend as China will unveil more details about its fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday and tensions in the Middle East remain on the headlines. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 hit its 44th record this year on Wednesday and the US dollar index pushed into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone. The Chinese CSI 300 rebounded on details about liquidity tools designed to facilitate institutional share purchases and on hope that the Saturday briefing from the government would give investors what they want: SOLID FISCAL STIMULUS. Market sentiment isn’t bad; copper, iron ore and US crude are better bid today. Today will bring the latest CPI update to investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve (Fed) members may have shifted their focus from inflation to jobs. But stickiness in US core inflation could get the market question the Fed’s relaxed stance regarding its dovish ambitions! Listen to find out more!

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Chinese authorities think that the country could achieve its 5% growth target with the stimulus measures that have already been announced, but investors not much so. Chinese stocks are further sold off, while bleeding in energy and commodities slow down. Elsewhere, the major US indices move independently from the Chinese news, the US dollar is flat into today’s FOMC minutes and tomorrow’s CPI update. The EURUSD is also waiting impatiently near a major Fibonacci level before taking a fresh direction. Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets will ease and the US dollar will further rebound and step into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone, or the dollar will remain in the bearish trend building since summer and leave other currencies with vulnerable gains. Listen to find out more!

The week started on an ugly note except for those who have a long exposure to energy related assets. The crumbling dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations at the wake of a blowout jobs report from the US, the lack of further stimulus measures from China and the mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East give investors a hard time at the start of this week. US yields and the US dollar are up, major counterparts are down, oil swings between gains and losses, copper and iron ore futures are heavily sold. The VIX index is rising Listen to find out more!

Surprise! The US economy added more than 250’000 new nonfarm jobs last month, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and wages grew faster than expected both on monthly and on a yearly basis. On a yearly basis, the US workers earned 4% more on average compared to a year ago. On top, the strikes at the US ports were paused until mid January and the goods are being moved until further notice. The US treasuries got heavily sold off on Friday, the US dollar jumped, the EURUSD slipped below 1.10, Cable fell to 1.3070 and the USDJPY rallied past the 148 level. The US dollar is better bid at the start of this week, but the US inflation report due Thursday could temper some of this bullish momentum. The US headline inflation is expected to have further eased from 2.5% to 2.3% in September. But core inflation is still above the 3% mark. Listen to find out more!

Global headlines were shaken yesterday by the news that Israel is considering striking Iran’s oil facilities, and that Joe Biden may let Israel do it. Oil surged. Even though the rising oil prices should not last long (hopefully), they may have an impact on the short and medium-run inflation outlook. That, combined with strikes in US East and Gulf coasts are inflationary. The spike in energy prices and supply chain disruptions were the main responsible for the soaring global inflation after the 2020s. Of course, today’s situation is not comparable to the pandemic period, but could – maybe - get the Federal Reserve (Fed) members question their overly optimistic view on inflation, and their overly dovish stance on rates. The expectation of another jumbo rate cut is melting by the day. And the selloff in Japanese yen and the British sterling add to the positive pressure in the US dollar. Today’s US official labour data will be very important in providing a final conclusion to the week’s so far stronger-than-expected jobs figures. Listen to find out more!

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East gets tenser, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves get worried with the sight of better-than-expected jolts and ADP report announced earlier in the week. The US yields and the dollar extended recovery, stocks stagnated. The broadly stronger US dollar, combined with a slide in the euro area inflation below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% inflation target justifies a further selloff in the EURUSD, while the USDJPY sharply reversed course after the new Japanese PM said that the Japanese economy is ‘not ready yet for further rate hikes’. In energy, crude oil failed to clear a major Fibonacci resistance as EIA data showed 3.9-mio barrel build in US inventories last week. Some voices are favouring a rise to $100pb level, but the macroeconomic challenges give little support to such a rally in oil prices – even with the messy geopolitical setup in the Middle East. Listen to find out more!

After a strong September, everyone wonders whether Bitcoin can keep up the good performance for October. So Uptober or Downtober for crypto and co? 00:00 Intro 00:25 Preview 00:40 Bitcoin 04:10 Ethereum 07:16 Solana 10:19 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Risk off reins. First, the US east and gulf ports went on a strike on Tuesday, as expected. It will cause supply disruptions and increase the price pressures before November presidential elections. Then, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran has reportedly fired about 200 missiles on Israel as response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel said it will retaliate. The involvement of Iran could in fact lead to a wider and a more serious conflict across the region, and threaten oil supply. This is why, the barrel of US crude gained more than 3.50% yesterday. Elsewhere, euro area inflation slipped below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, while the US data gave mixed signals regarding the health of the jobs market. All eyes are on the ADP report for more clues! Listen to find out more!

The Chinese stocks extended gains on Monday as China announced more stimulus measures and investors rushed to buy before the markets closed for national holiday today. The CSI 300 index jumped more than 8% on Monday and was up by a whopping 26% in six sessions. But the S&P500 gained barely 1% over the same period. Maybe, Powell gets worried that the Chinese measures would boost inflation, along with the potential price risks from the US port strikes due to begin today? Whatever it is, the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves were on the retreat yesterday, the euro doves gained field. All eyes are on the EZ inflation and US jobs data. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with another bull run in Chinese stocks on further stimulus news. The Chinese stocks extended their rally, iron ore gained, the AUDUSD, preparing to test the 0.70 cents level as Australian stocks extend rally to fresh ATH. Over in Europe, growth and China-sensitive European stocks are also having their share of the Chinese pie. The Stoxx 600 index closed the week at an ATH. LVMH gained 20% in just a week. In separate news, inflation data from France and Spain came in lower than expected. More figures are to flow in between today and tomorrow to keep the EURUSD offered near the 1.12 level – even against a broadly softening US dollar. US dollar remains under pressure after last Friday’s soft PCE reads, and before this week’s jobs data. Across the Channel, Cable consolidates a touch below the 1.34 level and the FTSE 100 is better bid. Even oil – shattered by Saudi’s decision to focus on expanding market share - seems to be boosted by the Chinese stimulus news since last Friday. In Japan, mood is totally different since last Friday. Last week’s elections in Japan resulted in a surprise win of Shigeru Ishiba, who is known for his preference for higher interest rates. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 printed its 42nd record high this year yesterday on the back of a mix bag of economic and corporate news. Due today, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE index, will determine whether the soft landing dreamers will carry the US stock rally to fresh record levels. Elsewhere, the mix of Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus measures continue to boost Chinese and China-related stocks. LVMH jumped 10% yesterday. Crude oil remains under pressure on reports that Saudi Arabia will drop its price target and focus on expanding its market share. And finally, in Europe, the soft CPI reads from France and Spain will likely set a ceiling on EURUSD near 1.12, of course, if the data from the US doesn’t come with a big surprise. Listen to find out more!

The global economy is settling into a newfound stability and central banks can continue to cautiously cut rates, said the OECD yesterday, but warned that the major central banks should maintain their data-dependent approach and be ‘prudent’ while cutting their rates. The UK economy will do particularly fine they said, despite the sticky core inflation on the island. Alas, the upbeat outlook from the OECD, the rising tensions in the Middle East, the 4.5-mio barrel dive in US oil inventories last week (that pushed the US oil inventories to the lowest levels in 2.5 years) and the big stimulus measures from China did little to cheer oil investors up. US crude slipped below the $70pb again. Investors are waiting for the US GDP update, expected to confirm a 3% growth in Q2. The S&P500 and Nasdaq consolidate near ATH levels, as Micron rallies 15% on the back of strong outlook on AI demand. The US dollar reverses yesterday’s gains and the USDCHF consolidates near 0.85 before the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 celebrated its 41st record high yesterday on rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets. Chinese equities extended rally as well as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its MLF rate this morning, on top of the measures announced earlier this week. Global mining stocks are shining. Elsewhere, the US dollar weakens and the dollar’s weakness masks the gloomy fundamentals of the European economies. Gold and oil remain bid on the back of geopolitical tensions. Listen to find out more!

Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced more stimulus measures, the Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinted at more – and maybe big – rate cuts while the soft set of PMI data in the euro area boosted the European Central Bank (ECB) doves as well. There is one central bank that stands out in the middle of a jungle of doves and that’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the 7th consecutive meeting today and its Governor said that they don’t care about what the other central banks do, that they are focused on their domestic economy, that the board wants to see inflation come firmly back to 2-3% range and that they were not expecting to cut rates in the near future. Voila, that’s pretty clear. The Aussie hit the highest level this year against the greenback on the back of the clear divergence between the RBA and the others, and supportive factors are gathering for a further Aussie strength against both the USD, EUR and the JPY. Listen to find out more!

Risk is on, sentiment is great since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the end of policy tightening with a 50bp cut. This week, the US will reveal the latest PMI figures, the third estimate of its Q2 GDP growth and the core PCE index – also expected to give the market bulls enough room to extend the risk rally. The Eurozone CPI updates could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stay pat, but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also seen cutting its rates. As such, oil and energy could eventually see the benefits of the reflation trade, as well. And there is an interesting intersection between Big Tech and its AI projects and energy markets, and that’s nuclear. Listen to find out more!

The Fed began easing its monetary policy with a big, fat 50bp cut. The markets first didn’t know what to make out of the decision, but the bulls are back in joy since yesterday: the S&P500 and Dow Jones trade at record high, the dollar is under pressure. Fed’s optimism that inflation will deal with itself is cool, but it’s a view that the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers didn’t share yesterday when they almost all voted to skip an interest rate cut in the UK this month – despite softening inflation in the UK as well. Listen to find out more!

Today, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely end the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle of its modern history. It is expected to start cutting its interest rates, update its economic projections and reveal its latest dot plot. While a rate cut is fully priced in, investors can’t agree on whether the Fed should cut by 25 or 50bp? There is roughly 50-50 chance asses to one scenario or the other. Today’s episode is a pure Fed-overdose. Listen to find out more!

Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves are going seriously ahead of themselves, or there will be a big disappointment when the Fed will announce its policy decision tomorrow. Or... the Fed will align with the market and give investors want they want, to avoid creating further panic. The expectation of a 50bp is now assessed nearly 70% chance. US yields and the dollar are softening, the equities are holding on to their gains, precious metals see demand and US crude jumps above $70pb. In individual news, Intel jumped more than 6% yesterday on news that it sealed a deal with Amazon’s AWS. According to the news, the companies will co-invest in a custom semiconductor for AI computing. Intel also confirmed that it will well separate its foundry business from the rest, to unlock its external foundry potential by giving its customers a better image of independence of its foundry unit. The news pleased investors, for once. A growing number of companies are exploring the potential of developing their own custom chips, a vision that Intel’s independent foundry services could help bring to life. Listen to find out more!

We are heading into a busy week with major central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce their latest policy verdicts this week. The Brits and the Japanese are expected to remain seated on their hands and the Fed will certainly lower its rates this week. But by how much – is the million-dollar question! Wagers for a 50bp cut are rising into Wednesday’s decision, the US yields ands the dollar are under pressure, gold advances through uncharted territory but oil investors are hard to cheer up. The weak Chinese data continues to support the sellers’ hand and keeps the barrel of US crude offered below the $70pb level. Listen to find out more!

The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday lowered its deposit facility rate by 25bp for the second time this year. But ECB Chief Christine Lagarde kept a poker face for what’s next and said that there is no commitment to a particular rate path. And mixed updates to forecasts didn’t help much either. The European officials revised their growth projections lower for the next two years and kept their inflation forecasts unchanged, but they increased their core inflation forecast for this year and the next. It was like tightening the belt on one side but loosening it on the other. The euro gained, the yields rebounded and equities were lifted higher. Investors also tried to weigh in the 400-page proposal from Mario Draghi to revive the EU’s dormant economy. In the US, the PPI came in higher-than-expected on a monthly basis, but lower-than-expected on a yearly basis. The US 2-year yield remains under a decent pressure, the US dollar remains sold across the board, and equities continue to recover. Gold rallied to a fresh ATH on falling yields and softening US dollar, while crude oil tested the $70pb resistance despite unsupportive news from the IEA. Listen to find out more!

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The latest US CPI data, and the reaction to data was mixed on Wednesday. The good news is that the headline inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.5% in August, and sank significantly below the 3% level where it was resisting since last summer. But core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – came in line with the expectations on a yearly basis, and slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis – and marked the end of the 25 or 50bp cut for next week’s FOMC meeting. It will likely be a 25bp cut, ladies and gents... In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet and most likely deliver its second 25bp cut later today. A 25bp cut is fully baked in the market prices, but there is room to act on what comes next. The decision will either keep the EURUSD afloat above 1.10 or send the pair below this psychological level. Listen to find out more!

The barrel of US crude tumbled almost 4% to nearly $65pb level, as Brent crude slipped below the $70pb mark after OPEC – which is normally optimistic - lowered its demand forecast for the second time in two months. Elsewhere, the debate between Trump and Harris went quite well for Harris, which saw her victory odds climbed to 55, and the latter sent Bitcoin 2.50% lower. Banks sold off on gloomy outlook from big bank CEOs and Big Tech barely reacted to European fines to Apple and Google. Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data. A sufficiently soft set of inflation figures should revive the discussion about the size of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts. Listen to find out more!

The European and US indices rebounded on Monday, though the rebound was probably not based on high conviction, but looked more like the correction of last week’s decent selloff. In the US, the 2-year yield consolidated below the 3.70% level, but the US dollar index rebounded ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data – that will certainly not change the expectation of a 25bp cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) at next week’s policy meeting, but that could – if significantly different than expectations – revive or temper the dovish Fed expectations for the rest of the year. The EURUSD extended losses to 1.1040 and the USDJPY rebounded from August lows. Apple closed nearly flat after revealing its new products yesterday. Apple Intelligence failed to impress. Market’s attention will shift to politics as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face off in a debate today. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on an ugly note, really, as the jobs data from the US revealed throughout the week was weak, but maybe not weak enough to tilt the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations toward a clear direction. US yields fell and the equities fell, the USDJPY fell to the lowest levels since August meltdown. And if it’s not enough, the data released in the earliest hours of this week pointed that the Japanese economy recovered slower-than-expected but that the price pressures remained higher than expected in Q2, and that inflation in China came in below estimates as well, not helping to relieve the growing tensions about China and its sputtering economy. The Nikkei index is down by more than 0.60% at the time of writing and China’s CSI 300 is down by more than 1%. US crude fell 1.75% on the back of the mixed US jobs data on Friday, closed last week below the $70pb psychological level, copper futures remain below the 200-DMA. Good news is, US futures are in the positive, hinting that we could see a small rebound after last week’s heavy selloff as attention shifts to Apple’s product reveal, US CPI update and the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. Listen to find out more!

Risk appetite got another hit yesterday after the US ADP report printed a weaker-than-expected number and revived the worries that the US official jobs data could also disappoint for the second month in a row. Many investors believe that today’s job figures could be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting later this month. Why this data is so important? Above all, it is because the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a further weakness in the jobs market is undesired. That’s obviously a good reason for investors to put a lot of weight on the jobs data. But from a theoretical perspective, this month’s jobs data is especially significant as in July, the Sahm’s Rule was triggered, and the JOLTS report showed the vacancy rate fell below the key 4.6% threshold, which could push unemployment to 4.5%, according to Fed’s Waller’s research paper. So investors are holding their breath and bracing for a potentially higher stress and volatility before the weekly closing bell. Listen to find out more!

US equities remained under pressure yesterday after the JOLTS report revealed that the US job openings unexpectedly fell further in July to the lowest level since 2021. The US yields, the dollar and most major equity indices fell. On the other hand, the USDJPY dropped to the lowest levels since the beginning of August as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda added more fuel to fire saying that the bank will continue to raise the borrowing costs if needed. So you understood, we are living a situation of deja vu: rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations combined with rising hawkish BoJ bets result in a movement of capital out of the risk of equities, and a flight into the safety of the Japanese yen. But this time around, the price action is not triggered by the actual data, but by the fear of seeing a second month of disappointment in the US jobs data. Today, eyes are on the ADP report. The official jobs data is due tomorrow. While waiting, we will also be watching the ISM figures, Broadcom earnings and the weekly crude oil inventories report. US crude slipped below $70pb yesterday despite OPEC’s earnings that they could step back on their plan to increase production next month. Listen to find out more!