Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of the pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Maggie Lake for another compelling episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Hodges, a 40-year financial veteran, talks about when markets will stop Fed-watching and refocus on core fundamental principles and the process of price discovery. He also explains why every trade has four possible outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity indexes slipped into negative territory Monday afternoon and the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve inverted even further, as investors price in easing inflation and slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to a 25-month low, and home prices registered the fastest cool-down in history during July. Meanwhile, whether Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan on Tuesday is more fuel for the conflagration that is the postwar geopolitical order. With the world’s most important central bank now “data dependent,” Real Vision macro analyst Roger Hirst joins Maggie Lake to contextualize recent economic reports and explain how to use them to make better investment and trading decisions – one of the key elements of the brand-new Real Investing Course from Real Vision. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about recent price action on the critical USD/JPY front. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Rob Dugger, the founder of Hanover Investment Group and a co-founder of ReadyNation, joins host Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rob shares his thoughts on how inequality has created malinvestment in the U.S. and why investing in infrastructure and national security could help the economy regain strength and stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harley Bassman has worked in finance for more than 40 years. Before becoming a managing partner at Simplify, Bassman traded at Credit Suisse, Merril Lynch, and PIMCO. He joins Maggie Lake to talk about why using simple common sense led to his early success and how he got burned during the Global Financial Crisis by not listening to Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager portrayed by Steve Carrell in the hit movie “The Big Short.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’re witnessing the greatest stock market rally in the aftermath of a Federal Reserve rate hike since the 1970s, as investors seem to be celebrating inflation’s end. That’s despite the fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, surged to 6.8% in June, the highest reading since June 1982. Jerome Powell said this week’s 75-basis-point move gets the fed funds target range back to “neutral.” According to Jim Bianco, “That only works if you still believe in transitory and inflation is going back to 2%.” Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about why inflation is not “over,” what the Fed will do with “incoming data,” and when the recession will become “official.” We also hear from David Rosenberg about when and why the market will bottom. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s clearly not a good thing that the Commerce Department reported a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, with U.S. gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. But are we in recession? Following the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, George Goncalves forecast back-to-back 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July, warning the Federal Reserve could “miscalibrate and push us over the edge.” Well, we got 75 and 75. When will tightening financial conditions impact the economy and markets in a way that gets the Federal Reserve’s attention? And where can we look for such a signal? Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the journey from inflation risk to rate risk to credit risk. We also hear from Jim Bianco about what’s happening in perhaps the most critical area of global finance: “Things have already broken the bond market.” For Conclaves charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3vo88Qs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee delivered exactly as expected Wednesday afternoon, announcing a second consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate hike on a unanimous vote. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains, short-term U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the dollar softened in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. An otherwise anodyne FOMC statement did note “recent indicators of spending and production have softened,” though it also described the labor market as “robust” and inflation as “elevated.” The Fed remains “highly attentive to inflation risks,” as attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks. At the top of his prepared statement, Powell stressed the importance to long-term economic health of getting back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and the “rolling process” that is recession. We also hear a clip from Darius’s Fed Week conversation with Steven Van Metre and Jeffrey Snider about “getting back to neutral” when it comes to interest rates. You can watch that full conversation, including Roger Hirst’s commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption by 15%. Investors will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee until its decision on Wednesday and the post-meeting press conference. Will it be 50, 75, or even 100 basis points? Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the Federal Reserve’s options, the potential ripple effects of those choices, and why the Japanese yen remains a critical indicator of the health of the financial system. We also hear from Jeffrey Snider about what the eurodollar futures curve is telling us about the condition of the global economy. Watch the full interview featuring Steven Van Metre, Jeffrey Snider, and Darius Dale, with Roger Hirst’s “post game” commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he’s adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Michael, and Harry survey the current landscape, ponder what’s on the horizon, and debate solutions to a developing global energy crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in the green. He joins Maggie Lake to share the wisdom he’s accrued along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart shipments of blockaded grain and address the rising threat of famine across the Middle East and North Africa, a ray of hope amid what remains a complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, and global financial backdrop. Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action and recent moves by central banks to cope with circumstances that more and more seem beyond their control. Raoul also shares highlights from his recent conversation with Real Vision co-founder Damian Horner about an exciting new series currently in production. Watch the full conversation featuring Raoul and Damian here: https://www.realvision.com/an-update-from-raoul-and-damian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don’t spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan’s divergence from its peers, coining the phrase “yield spread control” to highlight a critical split at the heart of the global financial system. And former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist David Woo, now writing at DavidWooUnbound.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the ECB, softening U.S. economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the implications of a crumbling Chinese credit market. Are we fated for a stagflationary future? David and Maggie address that question and many more as the countdown to Fed Week continues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market showed significant deterioration last month. Still, according to Harry Melandri, we likely haven’t seen “peak inflation,” and so central banks will keep hiking rates. Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about how the Fed might respond to core CPI readings over the next quarter and to express his skepticism over Russia’s weaponization of its natural gas. “Do they need the money more than we need the gas?” We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why the Federal Reserve is “gonna slow down” and “take a pause.” Watch Stephan Clapham’s full interview with Harris here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In his most recent newsletter, Tony Greer of TG Macro wrote, “The setup for oil bulls on this gorgeous summer Friday morning is not to be believed. Stocks and commodities just spent the last quarter hemorrhaging in historic proportions, and now we’ve got a textbook turnaround setup…” Well, stocks are ripping today, and WTI crude oil is back above $104 per barrel, even as residential-starts data suggest the U.S. housing market is cooling and Apple announced plans to slow hiring and spending. Gasoline prices have fallen to two-month lows a week ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank is expected to announce another inflation-fighting 75-basis-point rate hike. Tony’s here to talk about all that and more with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake. We also hear from Chen Zhao about the coming “run of the mill” recession and how it differs from prior crisis-driven downturns. Watch the entire interview featuring Chen Zhao and Marko Papic here: https://rvtv.io/3aLSmrD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to make any promises regarding future crude oil output increases. European Union officials, in a sign of increasing desperation, did cut a natural gas deal with Azerbaijan. Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Laresen to talk about what happens when the Federal Reserve pushes the U.S. economy into recession to fight inflation. According to Gromen, many investors and policymakers are “seemingly oblivious to what the Federal deficit has done in the two recessions prior to COVID.” We also hear from Alexander Stahel about Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to inflict maximum pain on Europe via the weaponization of natural gas. Watch the entire interview featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3PGdw9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Shawn Hackett is the president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a firm that helps investors and hedgers (most notably farmers but end-users too) make better decisions when they get involved in agricultural commodities markets. Shawn joins Harry Melandri to talk about how weather patterns figure into commodity price forecasting, what impact current geopolitical factors could have on those prices, why we could face a cattle shortage, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed has amassed a Twitter following of more than 664,000. So how does he meet the expectations and manage the stress that come with such a public undertaking? In conversation with Maggie Lake, Michael shares his social media coping mechanisms, and he also explains how music became a creative outlet for him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jared Dillian tweeted it out: “It would take 8 months of 0.0% CPI readings to get CPI back to 5%.” And that was before the Commerce Department reported retail sales grew by a greater-than-expected 1% in June. President Joe Biden is in Saudi Arabia working on one angle of the inflation crisis, as investors re-priced the possibility of a 100-basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. Here’s something else Jared tweeted, yesterday: “Starting to think we put in bottoms in oil, gold, and stocks, and a top in the dollar at 10 am this morning.” The editor of The Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about those “bottoms” and how inflation and the Fed’s response to it is affecting the economy, markets, and expectations. We also hear from Anas Alhajji about short-term factors weighing on crude oil prices. Watch the full interview with Tony Greer and Anas Alhajji here: https://rvtv.io/3z9Rbvk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this week's jam-packed Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Ash Bennington, and Jim Bianco talk about everything from inflation and the US dollar to growth and tech, including crypto and so much more. Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims surged to a 2022 high. That’s to say nothing of the multiple failures in the crypto space. Financial economist and author Frances Coppola, the self-proclaimed "Notorious Crypto Skeptic," joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about inflation, financial markets, and what happens when banks – both traditional and “shadow” – collapse. We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why “the whole world is going to change.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IEtnmu. Watch the full interview with Harris Kupperman and Stephan Clapham here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcoming rate increase, what the Fed has already done will likely put the economy in recession, according to Eric Johnston, and that means earnings are likely to come down. Eric, the head of equity derivatives and cross asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Maggie Lake to talk about why earnings will catalyze the next leg down for equities markets. We also hear from Shawn Hackett about how to trade amid a correction in the commodities market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ayWL0O. Watch the full Interview with Shawn Hackett here: https://rvtv.io/3uJm1Zf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of economic expectations falling to minus 53.8 from 28.0 in June. Altogether, the euro dropped to a 20-year low versus the U.S. dollar, approaching parity on fear of an energy crisis and a recession. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the implications of euro-dollar parity, when falling crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices will show up in inflation figures, and the complex equation that could end in a global energy crisis. We also take a quick peek at today’s Insider Talks episode with Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3avxK6C. Watch the full Insider Talks episode here: https://rvtv.io/3IxryYo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze” and the “world recession” he says is its cost. We also hear from Raoul Pal about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yUwdjU. Watch Friday’s full Daily Briefing episode featuring Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3nVsvAs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value in precious metals and agricultural commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportunities on the long and short side. She joins Maggie Lake to discuss her unique career path, how her team puts together a report, and China’s history of expansion and retreat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL. To view today's charts click here: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20220708204027/20220708_RVDB_Charts.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast, notes that multiple indicators, including eurodollar futures, suggest the Federal Reserve has it all wrong. Recent data show global macro deterioration; combine that with tightening liquidity conditions, and, Jeff notes, we have an equation for rising deflation. Jeff joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about investors, central bankers, and their tug of war. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3RhivyR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there’s a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal’s and Sam Bankman-Fried’s discussion about what’s happening in crypto and beyond these days. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3akrlLq. Catch Raoul’s conversation with SBF on Friday. And be sure to catch Raoul's conversation with SBF on Friday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada’s housing market. He’s bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouver, Toronto, and other major Canadian markets have been red-hot for years. But people in those markets are now highly leveraged. Steve sorts through the implications and forecasts what’s next for housing in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck’s story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It’s a wildly fascinating story, full of lessons about surviving, battling through adversity, and succeeding. Above all, as Jason shares with Maggie Lake, is to be always willing to learn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash’s interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There’s a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we’re heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won’t let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today’s Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, a technical breach brought about by historic sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s war-making machine. Equity indexes turned lower in afternoon trade following last week’s big rally but have basically shrugged off this development. Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vison’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about broader implications of Russia’s default on the global bond and energy markets. Boockvar and Larsen also discuss recent economic data and when we might expect to start seeing negative monthly prints in key indicators such as durable goods orders and retail sales. We also hear from Francis Gannon about why it may take a while for a market bottom to form. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yns8V6. Watch the full interview featuring Francis Gannon here: ttps://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe.. When the Fed hiked interest rates on June 13th to levels not seen since before the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic, Egon Von Greyerz was more wary than usual. As the Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management, he is no stranger to these sorts of fluctuations, but something about this particular rate hike seems different. He joins Harry Melandri to discuss the impending changes, the best way to measure returns, and why currency is not the way to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, talks with Maggie Lake about how new investors should approach crypto during a bear market, why he believes Bitcoin will make a comeback, and what lessons he's learned throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday’s close, even as the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market’s perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3bpLTT0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell’s words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market’s reaction to Powell’s testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed’s credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ndy8Eh. And be on the lookout for Thursday’s release of the full Expert View session featuring Tian Yang. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 2% Tuesday, and it was the laggard among the major U.S. equity indexes as investors emerged from the three-day weekend buying with both hands. Energy stocks led the way, as West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $111 a barrel. Bloomberg data also show the refining business is doing very well amid this energy bull. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s big bounce and whether it signals the beginning of something bigger. Tony also shares his thoughts on crude oil, the 3:2:1 crack spread, and the durable role of fossil fuels in the modern economy. And we hear from Michael Howell about the accumulating evidence that we’re headed for a global recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/39E0AkP. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Howell and Jared Dillian here: https://rvtv.io/3y7gXQf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. The U.S. housing market boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand surged, as low interest rates fed a desire to find more space. What happens now, with the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 5.5% from 3.0% at the beginning of 2022? Nick Halaris of Metros Capital believes the market will remain resilient, and he explains why in a fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed is an experienced portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He joins Maggie Lake to explain how his toughest moments made him a stronger trader and why humility is an essential element of long-term success. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ash welcomes Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, to assess the bigger picture after a tough week for equities and fixed income. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mUOI11. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II and Mark Ritchie here: https://rvtv.io/3OgNoks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices