Real Vision: Finance & Investing

In the previous part 1 video of Weston Nakamura’s series on the Bank of Japan, Weston explains how BOJ Yield Curve Control works, and discusses the implications of being the only major central bank left who claims to still provide highly accommodative monetary policy in 2022. In this part two video, Weston shares his long-running theory on "BOJ Press Tests,” conducted behind the scenes by the central bank, carried out by major financial media outlets, and intended to get a read on market sentiment before a potentially permanent, irreversible policy error is made - as the Bank of Japan currently works to clean up its most recent attempt at using a “press test” as it headed into the January Monetary Policy Meeting. He also shows an example of when a theoretically impenetrable yield curve control fails a at the upper-bound of the YCC range. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Independent volatility trader, Darrin Johnson, believes trading volatility is the key to success in the market. In this invaluable episode, Johnson sits down with Jason Buck to reveal the key trading principles he follows and the importance of “standing out” professionally. Starting from the beginning of his entrepreneurial journey, the largely self-taught trader stresses the importance of educating oneself and reveals the learning materials he’s used personally—including the book central to his education and success in this area. Johnson shares some of the key lessons for institutional and independent trading, how to hedge risk effectively, and where he sees the most opportunity in the market right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Christian Alexander of Macro Link is one of the best-connected insiders in the hedge fund industry -- a "Jerry Maguire" figure with a broad and deep list of contacts. Three years ago, he spoke with Roger Hirst about the future of the industry, when "easy money" was the dominant regime. And, in November, he shared his thoughts on inflation with Maggie Lake, before wholesale and consumer prices spiked to multi-decade highs. Chris joins Maggie for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to update his thesis on hedge funds’ future as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch its first rate-hiking cycle since 2015-18. How will hedge funds adjust to the new reality? And what's Chris hearing from hedge-fund insiders about inflation, markets, specific assets, and the economy? Drop your questions for Chris on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0f611 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“GOLD.” That’s it; that’s the tweet Jared Dillian has published twice in the last couple days, as the yellow metal has surged more than 2%. A store of value (and a medium of exchange) for millennia, gold didn’t respond as inflation fears swelled during 2021. Now that the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are hitting multi-decade highs, though, alongside still-rising tension in Eastern Europe, it’s back in favor. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says 30% of his portfolio is made up of gold, silver, and precious-metals miners. And two weeks ago he tweeted, “I have a hunch that what’s coming next will make it feel like it’s not enough.” Dillian joins Real Vision Daily Briefing host Ash Bennington to talk about gold and why it remains a sound investment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GREEgR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As detailed in the just-released minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. central bankers are going to tighten faster than they did during their last rate-hiking cycle. And they’ve accelerated plans to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Still, Jerome Powell and company will be challenged to rein in inflation while keeping both investors and consumers happy. Meanwhile, Darius Dale sees in the January Producer Price Index data some light at the end of the tunnel, as the numbers suggest global supply-chain and inflation pressures may be abating. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the big picture, including the question of whether the January stock selloff was merely prologue to a more serious crash later in 2022. Weston Nakamura joins to preview the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, which kicks off tomorrow in Jakarta, Indonesia. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uRAu63. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and a key input for consumer prices, rose 1% in January, doubling the 0.5% consensus forecast. The PPI was up 9.7% year over year, easing from the 13-year-high readings of 9.8% for the previous two months. Increases were registered across the board, but goods prices continue to lead services prices. It’s more fodder for a Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates next month. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has ordered some troops be pulled back from positions along the Ukrainian border and has committed to further diplomatic talks with the U.S. Equity indexes surged on apparent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while crude oil and natural gas prices slid on the news. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss today’s developments. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3gQ2miK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity indexes faded into the close today, as investors continue to weigh prospects for a diplomatic solution to the simmering problem in Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated his hawkish stance on inflation, noting that it may be necessary to “front-load” interest-rate hikes. But the Bank of Japan remains on the side of easy money and “yield curve control.” This divergence among central banks could have major ramifications for stock prices, particularly high-growth tech names, as Weston Nakamura explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington in today’s Daily Briefing. Be sure to watch Weston's YouTube video here: https://rvtv.io/3uJCXj4. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oPv7Ax. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Renowned author, professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair describes the subtle difference between inefficiency and risk premium in options and markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Inflation is rampant globally, and the world’s major central banks are all taking decisive measures to tighten policy in their respective ways, with the exception of one major developed market central bank: the Bank of Japan. Weston Nakamura is based in Tokyo, Japan and has been monitoring, analyzing and trading the BOJ throughout Governor Kuroda’s controversial tenure, and explains how the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy has enabled the other major central banks and governments from making tough decisions and allowed for them to keep monetary and fiscal policy loose by “exporting low yields.” Weston also warns of a major potential inflection point ahead, as global central banks retreat from policy accommodation, leaving the BOJ the sole source of policy continuity in the QE-era. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index for January 2022 was up 0.6% and 7.5% year over year. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he’s become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, would now like to see a total of 100 basis points of rate hikes by July. In the aftermath of Bullard’s comments, federal funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point hike in March. Rent has gone up nearly 30% in some cities, but the grass isn’t greener for would-be homeowners. U.S. mortgage rates have surged to a two-year high, with the average 30-year fixed rate up to 3.69% from 3.55% last week. Meanwhile, the European Commission has raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.5% from 2.2% due to high energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss today’s CPI report and what it means for the Federal Reserve, markets, and your portfolio. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3swruR5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Japan Machine Tool Orders, the best leading indicator of the global industrial cycle, accelerated in January. And recent data suggest the backlog at Los Angeles Port may begin to ease by summer. At the same time, the coming Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a major wild card for investors. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about why, according to his analysis, “deflation” is now equal to “inflation” as the dominant short-term market regime. Was the January sell-off merely a precursor to a larger correction? However the case turns, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “right-tail hawkishness” means more volatility. Darius shares his thoughts on a murky macro picture and how specific assets are likely to perform under various scenarios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HESUe5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Emmanuel Macron of France met with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in Moscow on Monday and emerged with what seemed like good news: There’d be no further escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Indeed, equity indexes rallied, and crude oil prices backed off seven-year highs. But the Kremlin, while conceding the meeting had provided the basis for further work toward deescalation, said Macron’s interpretation of Putin’s intentions was “not right.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden hosted new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks about the situation in the Baltics, agreeing that construction of the critical Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline would be stopped should Russia invade Ukraine. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort out implications for stock and commodity markets in light of recent geopolitical events. Tony also talks about why the FAANG stocks have lagged of late, particularly relative to energy. And Weston Nakamura, our man on the ground in Asia, drops in to share insights on China’s recent moves to accommodate markets even as western policymakers withdraw stimulus. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3guKIB9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index posted an impressive 14.8% gain during 2021, but nearly all of it came in the first quarter. And weakness over the ensuing nine months carried into the first month of 2022, when the index shed 9.7%. Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, notes this frustrating performance came despite generally strong earnings growth for small-cap companies. Gannon joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to share his outlook for small caps over the balance of 2022, including the fact that it’s the only major asset class to have outpaced inflation during every decade since the 1930s. And rising interest rates could provide an additional tailwind for small-cap value stocks such as regional banks. Meanwhile, major indexes reflect uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for January, as investors weigh the potential for a 50-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HBlVau Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mike Green sits down with Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, to examine the political and economic climate of China. They look at China's 'outsized' role in the world and what impact joining the WTO had on the Chinese nearly two decades ago. The conversation also looks to the future -and the possibility of a digital currency in China -in time for the Beijing Olympics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Weston Nakamura closes his long Sony Corp. (NYSE: SONY)/short Technology Select SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) market-neutral pair trade, as SONY shares rallied following an intraday trading halt on news of its acquisition of Bungie for $3.6 billion Weston shares his thought process and overall assessment. Though it was a net-profitable trade in an environment of elevated global equity volatility, Weston’s frank self-evaluation is that this was a flawed structure. He categorizes this win as “right for the wrong reasons.” In other words, he got lucky. Weston expands on the importance of applying the framework of being “right/wrong, for the right/wrong reason” for all traders and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It wasn’t just the nonfarm payrolls data for January that moved markets on Friday. Upward revisions to prior months’ reports put a fresh glow on the U.S. economy – and also invited questions about Federal Reserve policy. “Too late the hawk” is how Harry Melandri might put it. Melandri, currently an advisor with MI2 Partners and formerly of Deutsche Asset Management and the Bank of England, notes that we have hit our “max non-inflationary growth potential.” In fact, the Fed “could tighten a lot without having a restrictive monetary policy.” The issue now could be either how big is the “everything bubble” in the U.S. or whether inflation or growth is the central bank’s key policy objective. Melandri joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake at the end of one of the most fascinating weeks in recent financial market history. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rsVnTh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

European Central Bank President Christine LaGarde now concedes the potential need for a rate hike in 2022 in the face of record-high inflation on the Continent, the same day the Bank of England announced a second consecutive increase to its benchmark rate since 2004 and began its “quantitative tightening” process. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, both Facebook parent Meta and PayPal have experienced massive value destruction in the aftermath of soft fourth-quarter results and softer forward guidance. Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about central bank moves, big tech earnings, and broader economic and market realities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3CUo5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ADP employment report for January showed a net loss of jobs, consumer spending is slowing, and President Biden is sending 3,000 troops to Eastern and Central Europe in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Like Apple’s, Alphabet’s fourth-quarter results blew away expectations. But those look like exceptions to the rule of a generally mixed earnings picture. Against increasing economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical instability, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates a total of 175 basis points in 2022. Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Hj4jzU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s already been a good year for hydrocarbons, with crude oil and natural gas prices rising along with geopolitical tensions in Central Europe. The threat of war is now driving up prices of agricultural commodities, including wheat, barely, corn, and rapeseed, with consequences far beyond the region. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss emerging opportunities in real assets. Meanwhile, India plans to launch a digital rupee during the fiscal year that starts April and to impose a 30% tax on transfers of virtual assets, as one of the world’s key markets warms to cryptocurrency. Real Vision’s eyes and ears in India, Nipun Kalra, joins to talk about crypto’s big win on the subcontinent. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ghKtJE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged on the last trading day of the month, but it was still the worst January for the Nasdaq since 2008. According to Mark Ritchie, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, we’re probably not going to see the type of V-shaped recovery that we saw in March 2020. Although last Monday marked a potential momentum low, “per my work,” notes Ritchie, “we are already in a cyclical bear market.” Earnings have been mixed so far, and investors are still focused on the Federal Reserve and other central banks as they prepare to fight inflation. Ritchie joins Maggie Lake to talk about financial markets and what’s changed early 2022. And Weston Nakamura joins to talk about the impact of China going silent ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GtgoS5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Brad Snyder and Weston Nakamura, a trucker and a trader, are back with Exchanging Lanes to challenge conventional macro data analysis, using real-world, real-time, on-the-ground observations and applying differentiated takeaways. In this episode, Weston and Brad look ahead and explore where disinflation or deflation risk may arise with a focus on inventories. They see massive overcapacity of warehousing in the longer term and offer a non-consensus angle for a potential data misread in consumption trends and inflation drivers for the immediate term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Pippa Malmgren, who served as Special Assistant to the President of the United States for Economic Policy under George W. Bush, says financial markets are likely to shrug off military conflict in Ukraine because it probably won’t resemble traditional warfare. Malmgren tells Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke that the new “quantitative easing” is military spending in cyberspace. Recorded on January 25, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A favorite Federal Reserve inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures index, measured 4.9% year over year for December. It hasn’t been that hot since September 1983. And the employment cost index was up an annualized 4% during the fourth quarter of 2021, an all-time high for that metric. Meanwhile, talk on the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine front has turned to economic sanctions, which, while short of “hot” war, pose their own set of challenges to people on the ground. Yields backed up and equities rallied on all the news. Jim Bianco, founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to sort out an eventful Friday. And Weston Nakamura drops in to share his thoughts following an equally dramatic week in China. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34ivKep Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Commerce Department reported the fastest annualized rate of U.S. gross domestic product growth since 1984 for the fourth quarter of 2021. But it’s hard to call this “Morning in America.” Investors and central bankers are still fixed on inflation and the coming tightening cycle, as other data suggest continuing supply-chain problems and omicron concerns linger. Earnings have been mixed, with Apple Inc. due to report at 5:00 p.m. ET today. Major equity indexes reflected the mixed picture, rising through midday but slipping into the red ahead of the close. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss strategy and tactics against a murky backdrop. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ABav3R Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee said today “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” And it issued a separate statement on “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet,” even as asset purchases continue. Stocks were already having their best day of 2022 ahead of this afternoon’s releases, and equity indexes continued to rally post-2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed finds itself in uncharted territory, and its various statements reflect the fact that there is no roadmap for combating inflation while balancing serious risks to growth – among them geopolitical tensions that continue to drive crude oil higher as well as an ongoing pandemic. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to break down one of the most highly anticipated FOMC meetings in recent times. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLKALp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. appears to be ramping up its support of NATO forces to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine. And, after selling off along with all risk assets yesterday, crude oil prices are once again rising. Other commodities produced in the Baltics, such as natural gas as well as wheat and corn, are also sensitive to geopolitical tension. This comes as the Federal Reserve opens a two-day meeting during which the central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since late 2018. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up more than 3% during the last 24 hours, as the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency seems to have decoupled from equities, at least in the very short term. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort through a murky macro environment and to talk about his current trading book. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0wMKE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Biden administration is preparing to deploy troops and equipment to Eastern Europe and the Baltics to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine, as UK officials suggest Moscow aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. Stocks all over the world are tumbling, again, and Bitcoin has breached key technical levels. And there’s real concern about European natural gas supplies. “Risk on” for Putin means “risk off” for investors. Weston Nakamura is here to discuss the state of play with Ash Bennington. Weston also drops a compelling pair trade that could be a decent hedge against both geopolitics and central bankers. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/32rm6FR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Cryptocurrencies are crashing, stocks are tanking, bonds are rallying, and central banks are diverging. That all spells “risk off,” as the pandemic rally has surely come to an end. Is there an “all clear” moment coming? When should we prepare to buy this dip? Raoul Pal joins the conversation for an update on what’s happening in the crypto space. And Maggie Lake talks with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about the view from 30,000 feet and what it means for risk assets, including Bitcoin, Netflix, and others that benefited from across-the-board accommodative monetary policy over the past couple years. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KwXMDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The commodity “super cycle” chorus will only get louder with crude oil touching eight-year highs, nickel reaching levels not seen in a decade, and even gold looking like a compelling trade right now. Mixed U.S. economic data probably won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. But China’s central bank is clearly in easing mode. Combined with constrained supply across the complex, and that’s fuel enough for commodities firmly linked to the Middle Kingdom’s economy. Tony Greer talks with Maggie Lake about what’s happening with commodities amid a murky global outlook, and joins the conversation to discuss the impact of recent moves by the People’s Bank of China. Questions for Tony? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/33VU4CE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes bounced between “green” and “red” today, reflecting investor uncertainty amid a spike in volatility. Portfolio positioning is the critical question, as inflation fears feed expectations of four interest-rate hikes in 2022. Supply-chain issues continue to burden the global economy. And, now, crude oil is threatening to reach $100. Consumers are getting crunched, and investors are confused. Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, sifts the evidence and offers solutions for the current environment in a discussion with Ash Bennington. Care to submit a question? Drop it right here on the Exchange https://rvtv.io/3GJX3wN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bond yields rose across the curve Tuesday and stocks sank, as investors began to price in the potential impact of as many as four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 1.865%, the highest it’s been since January 2020, and the German 10-year bund moved to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since 2019. U.S. equity indexes were off nearly 2%, while European stocks fell about 1%. The CBOE Volatility Index (known as the “fear gauge”) surged as much as 20% intraday. Meanwhile, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices continued to rise on strengthening global demand and tightening tensions in the Middle East. Still, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Alfonso Peccatiello of The Macro Compass welcomes back Nordea Markets Global Rates Strategist Andreas Steno Larsen for a European perspective on what's driving markets today. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3fD6xhw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 14,2022: U.S. retail sales fell in December as surging prices hit consumer spending. Raoul Pal discusses what opportunities are available for investors in an environment of rising inflation and why he is looking at the carbon trade. He also provides his view on Bitcoin, Ethereum and how to understand the macro environment. You don’t want to miss Raoul’s take on how we should be thinking amid the uncertainty. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3I2PBgs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 13,2022: In today’s volatile trading environment, charts can be a clear way to make investment decisions. Katie Stockton gives her technical take on the S&P 500 (which she says will enter a corrective phase in 1-2 weeks), FAANGs, 10-year yields, and more. Find out why she suggests sticking with core longs that have the support of rising moving averages and get some actionable ideas. We’ll also ask how much—if at all—fundamentals like rising inflation play into her investment decisions. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3FjqrbG Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 12,2022:December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 7% year-over-year, the biggest jump since 1982. And even worse supply chain disruptions may be on the horizon if Omicron sweeps through Asia and prompts more lockdowns across China. HSBC warns that disruptions to manufacturing are inevitable, and the world could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain bottlenecks. 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale discusses what to look out for and how best to prepare. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/33b0EFz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 11,2022: During a hearing for his re-confirmation as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell said the central bank will work to relieve inflationary pressures in the economy. Following Powell’s testimony, the Nasdaq rallied for the second day in a row. In the U.K., the London Metal Exchange experienced an over five hour long outage but resumed trading after migrating its systems to backup. Sharing how he’s positioning his trades, Tony Greer of TG Macro examines elevated volatility in markets with commodities soaring, yields rising, Bitcoin plunging, and equities rotating out of tech. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Gj45br. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 10,2022: Goldman Sachs expects a more aggressive Fed this year with four interest rate hikes on the horizon in an effort to to tame inflation. The prediction comes as U.S. stocks extend a volatile start to the year and Bitcoin dips below $40,000 for the first time since September. People who invested in BTC in the run up to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF are about to break even. Will the Fed need to rethink its strategy? Meanwhile, Omicron continues to rampage through the world, and one city in China is taking an aggressive approach: Tianjin, near Beijing, is testing all 14 million of its residents after 20 people tested positive for the coronavirus, two of whom had the omicron variant. Alfonso Peccatiello and Weston Nakamura join from the Netherlands and Japan respectively to answer the timely question: How do you navigate this environment with rising interest rates? Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3K9da9p Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 07,2022:Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. rose by 199,000 in December, which pales in comparison to the original estimate of 422,000. Despite the actual numbers landing below expectations, unemployment in the country fell to 3.9%, which was actually better than the estimated 4.1%. Wages increased 4.7% year-over-year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries that reaped the benefits the most were leisure and hospitality. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and author of The Boock Report, joins to examine the U.S labor force and inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been slipping all week and is now below $42,000, levels not seen since September last year. This too is the result of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes hinting at earlier- and faster-than-expected rate hikes. In Europe, inflation hit a record high of 5% in December, leaving people debating whether the European Central Bank should be more aggressive at combating price hikes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3f3eIDe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 06,2022:On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%—the worst single-day decline in 11 months and the worst start to a year since 2008. Even crypto is taking a beating. The entire country has turned its attention to the Fed, which yesterday hinted at becoming more aggressive, triggering the steep drop in stocks. The taper, rising rates, and declining balance sheets are on the agenda. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, shares how he’s positioning his portfolio, given the big picture, and answers the pivotal question: Is a major regime shift on the way? Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3G4jmwD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 05,2022:The U.S. Fed just released its meeting minutes, hinting that it may get more aggressive with tightening the balance sheet and reducing stimulus. That caused stocks to plunge immediately. China just launched a wallet app for its own digital Yuan currency with the aim to expand its usage to more people in the country and, simultaneously, achieve more control over crypto in the country. The digital Yuan is not a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, but instead is issued and controlled by the People’s Bank of China. In the U.S., private-sector job growth increased by 807,000 payrolls in December, which is the strongest growth since May, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. However, absenteeism resulting from the Omicron variant is still an imminent threat to non-farm payroll growth. 42 Macro CEO and founder Darius Dale joins to discuss all this as well as his developing macro outlook for 2022. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34tOSGN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 04,2022: OPEC+ has agreed to increase its oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in February as it is believed that Omicron will not have a detrimental impact on demand. The Institute for Supply Management revealed a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing in December, but still in firm expansion territory. It also showed signs that inflation may be starting to cool as supply-chain disruptions ease. Also, your old Blackberry phone has finally died forever and can’t even be used to call 911 anymore. Tony Greer discusses all this and more. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3eRNzTW. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan 01,2022: Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of the Macro Compass, shares his outlook on 2022 on the first trading day of the year, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inch higher. Peccatiello discusses how he sees the economy moving forward: his view on China’s economy, the property market, and the Evergrande’s debt crisis. Peccatiello also talks about Fed rates, inflation, the bond market, and some of the good news making headlines and reflected in companies like Apple becoming the first company to hit $3 trillion market value and Tesla stocks jumping 9.0% after the company reported record deliveries for 2021. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JFjVPE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec30,2021:December has been a brutal month for Bitcoin — with prices plunging around 30% from their all-time high in November. In this special edition of Crypto Unwrapped, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Real Vision’s own Weston Nakamura join Ash Bennington to discuss what’s driving price action in these highly volatile markets. The group breaks down key concepts, including year-end options expiry, implied volatility put-to-call ratios, max pain point, and the role of ETF and emerging market FX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec27,2021:What put a floor under global markets last week may not be what you think. Weston Nakamura provides an overview of the global and cross-asset markets in the last week of the year. Nakamura explains that regional market holiday schedules matter because they determine the makeup of active market participants. He then talks about the unprecedented volatility in the Turkish Lira having rallied 50% from all time lows after President Erdogan unveiled his controversial new economic policy to protect depositors against FX risk. He also makes the case that the upside in global macro risk assets could have been driven by the breakneck reversal in the Lira, following up on his recently released video, “How Policy Changes Created Turkish Lira Volatility”. Link to Weston’s video on the Turkish Dollar from Dec 25th 2021: https://youtu.be/WnDiFCWgBDQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec23,2021:What’s going on in Turkey, and why should we keep an eye on it? Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian fills you in on what you need to know about the Turkish Lira. Nikola delivers its first EV truck, boosting its stocks by 20%, and Elon Musk is now almost done selling his Tesla shares. Dillian also shares his rules of trading for 2022, which might be riddled with choppy waters. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3srmnDv. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec22,2021:The number of new cases in South Africa has slowed in recent weeks and is down more than 20% in the past week, pointing to the probability that the Omicron variant has reached its peak. Perhaps this may not be that bad after all. Alfonso Peccatiello is in Holland under a strict lockdown, and he is joined by Darius Dale of 42 Macro on the Daily Briefing to discuss the lockdown conditions and the potential effects it would have on the economy. Meanwhile, Elon Musk announced he would be paying $11 billion in taxes this year as he continues offloading Tesla stock. However, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has launched a probe into Tesla vehicles’ ability to play games on the giant tablet in the car while driving, making these vehicles incredibly dangerous on the road thanks to their ability to distract drivers. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3eexSWr Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec21,2021:After markets were down yesterday, oil, stocks, and crypto rebounded. Goldman Sachs also recently released their new projection for oil, explaining that oil could potentially reach $100 a barrel within the next two years. TG Macro's Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss why he thinks not enough people own copper and update his market outlook for the last weeks of 2021. In the U.K., the Omicron variant’s rampage has led the government to offer 1 billion pounds to hospitality businesses and firms hardest hit by the new outbreak. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/32odI9Z Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec20,2021:The Omicron fear factor has sent the entire market tumbling downhill – what does this mean for 2022? Jeffrey Schulze of ClearBridge discusses how you should protect your investments and prepare for the disruption. Goldman cuts GDP forecast down to 2% after Sen. Joe Manchin said he won’t support President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. Real Vision's Weston Nakamura also discusses the Lira as it slumps to new lows after Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would not raise interest rates. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3slSEeV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec017,2021:At the year's end, people are normally buying the winning tech stocks. This year, however, people are selling. What is going on? Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, talks about the volatility in tech stocks and whether you should buy the dip. He will also discuss cryptocurrencies and his 2022 outlook on the digital asset space. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/31YK0bP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Dec16,2021:As the Fed wages its battle against inflation by signaling raising interest rates in 2022 at a faster pace than expected, Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, explains who the winners and losers are from the Fed’s decision and how we should position our investments. Will a hike in interest rates accelerate the growth of cryptocurrencies? In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years from 0.1% to 0.25%, which may increase the mortgage costs of some homeowners. In the meantime, businesses around the world continue to suffer from the spread of Covid and the Omicron variant. Liz Young speaks about these issues, the macro environment, our investment future, the clean energy trends, and the supply chain woes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3F6i6ca Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices