Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Record-high temperatures and a severe drought in west-central China has crippled hydropower generation and prompted the shutdown of many factories in the latest blow to a Chinese economy already weighed down by stagnant consumer spending and a deeply troubled real estate market. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan will re-start more idled nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors to stabilize the island nation’s energy supply. Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what trouble in the East means for the West and how it’s playing out in forex markets. Then, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie to share a technical view of the market, including key levels for the S&P 500, energy commodities, and the U.S. dollar. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on the dollar and what its movement tells us about global liquidity. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The euro has broken below parity with the dollar, hitting a two-decade low on Tuesday amid multiple exigent crises that threaten not just growth but continental order. And the yuan has weakened to a two-year low against the buck, as Chinese authorities struggle to sustain growth amid a major housing market downturn. Traders see no bottom in sight for either currency, as China’s slowdown makes Europe’s troubles that much worse in a feedback loop with global implications. As we near the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Thursday, it’s fair to question what the Federal Reserve can do in a world where power prices in Germany reach the rough equivalent of crude oil at $1,000 per barrel. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about that as well as what a strong dollar means for financial markets and the global economy. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on tightening liquidity and what it means for equity markets. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes opened deep in the red and traded lower through the day, as investors price in “risk off” signals emerging everywhere from China to Germany and anticipate a big week of news from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As Weston Nakamura notes, today’s price action was foretold last Friday, when the Peoples Bank of China stepped in to defend the Chinese yuan. Prices of risk assets everywhere – including Bitcoin – began to retreat. Now we have more signs the European energy crisis is deepening, with natural gas prices surging on a new round of “maintenance” on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Weston joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the seemingly rapid shift to a “risk off” tone, signals from the forex market, this energy crisis, and how to trade this kind of action. We also hear from Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson about the relationship between pegged and un-pegged currencies. Watch the full video featuring Francis "The Market Sniper" Hunt and Brent Johnson here: https://rvtv.io/3AeYC3F. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Aksel Kibar, the managing director of Tech Charts Research & Trading, is a Chartered Market Technician with more than 15 years of experience as a classical trader and global equity market analyst. Aksel joins Harry Melandri for this week’s episode of The Next Big Trade to talk about the power of technical analysis and how reading charts can help you find your next big trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harry Melandri’s life has been both unconventional and exhilarating. He’s worked at some of the world’s premier financial institutions, including UBS and Deutsche Bank, and he also spent time at the Bank of England. Harry joins Maggie Lake to share stories from his remarkable career and the lessons he learned a long the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard isn’t ready to say inflation has peaked and at this point leans toward a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month. The central bank is fighting back against a market that’s already pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2023. But here’s the best way to think about when the Fed might “pivot,” according to Jared Dillian: “Remember, they don’t hike until things are cool. They hike until something breaks.” And there’s the political angle too: “Remember, the Fed still has to be seen doing something about inflation.” Jared joins Maggie Lake to talk about inflation in its domestic and global guises, what central banks can and will do to fight it, and whether we might be too bearish given all the bad news that’s already out there. We also hear from Rob Arnott about Wall Street inflation expectations and what, exactly, is fueling them. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Jeff Snider, the chief strategist at Atlas Financial and the co-host of the Eurodollar University podcast, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the “grotesquely upside down” Eurodollar futures curve in another gripping episode of The Next Big Trade. Jeff and Harry also discuss the implications of a rising U.S. dollar and the consequences of a collateral shortage for the global financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Imagine losing $4 million and the opportunity to set up your family for life as well as your digital identity in less than a year. Sergio Silva, the sales director at Fireblocks, joins Maggie Lake for a riveting episode of My Life in 4 Trades, where he talks about his ups and downs in a volatile 2022, shares the hard lessons he’s learned and explains how his Mexican roots give him the perspective and the strength to play the long game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks surged again this morning on news the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in July, the first monthly decline since April 2020. At the same time, producer prices were up 9.8% year over year. And multiple Federal Reserve officials said tightening would continue until inflationary pressures completely ease. “Stocks are going up,” notes Harry Melandri, an advisor at Mi2 Partners and the host of Real Vision’s The Next Big Trade podcast, “and that doesn’t seem consistent with Fed statements.” That we need inflation to have peaked and to no longer be a problem does not mean, of course, that it’s happened. To that end, we hear from emerging markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius about reasons to start nibbling amid what’s still a bear market as well as the possibility that there’s another shoe to drop because the Fed remains hawkish. Harry joins Maggie Lake, the host of Real Vision’s My Life in 4 Trades podcast, to talk about all that and much more, including Harry’s Cheesecake Factory anecdote. Watch the full interview featuring Mark Mobius and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3zHPXXi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks gapped higher at today’s open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July’s Consumer Price Index data that we’ve finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning’s report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It’s critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that’s able to recognize it in real-time.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out." Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If last week’s events in and around Taiwan illustrate Asia’s growing geopolitical importance, today’s announcement by SoftBank that it lost $23 billion in the second quarter also make it the home to “the world’s largest dumb retail investor,” as Weston Nakamura put it. Weston joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about SoftBank and to preview Wednesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. With the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey of consumer expectations showing substantial declines in short-, medium-, and long -term inflation expectations, Maggie welcomes Dave Floyd, the president of Aspen Trading Group, for an update on financial markets from a technical analyst’s perspective. Where are key levels of support and resistance for the major equity indexes? What are forex markets telling us? And is this merely a bear market rally? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Lawson Steele, one of the most respected analysts of carbon trading and EU Emissions Trading System markets, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European energy supply and demand, sharing an informed perspective on the short-, medium-, and long-term future for the political and economic union. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this edition of Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Damian Horner, Maggie Lake, and George Stanoev join Ash Bennington to introduce Real Vision’s newest groundbreaking venture, the Real Vision Academy. Our panel talks about the many ways the Academy can help you and your portfolio grow along your investing journey and answers from the Space about the Academy and its mission to make better investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of the pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Maggie Lake for another compelling episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Hodges, a 40-year financial veteran, talks about when markets will stop Fed-watching and refocus on core fundamental principles and the process of price discovery. He also explains why every trade has four possible outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity indexes slipped into negative territory Monday afternoon and the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve inverted even further, as investors price in easing inflation and slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to a 25-month low, and home prices registered the fastest cool-down in history during July. Meanwhile, whether Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan on Tuesday is more fuel for the conflagration that is the postwar geopolitical order. With the world’s most important central bank now “data dependent,” Real Vision macro analyst Roger Hirst joins Maggie Lake to contextualize recent economic reports and explain how to use them to make better investment and trading decisions – one of the key elements of the brand-new Real Investing Course from Real Vision. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about recent price action on the critical USD/JPY front. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Rob Dugger, the founder of Hanover Investment Group and a co-founder of ReadyNation, joins host Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rob shares his thoughts on how inequality has created malinvestment in the U.S. and why investing in infrastructure and national security could help the economy regain strength and stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harley Bassman has worked in finance for more than 40 years. Before becoming a managing partner at Simplify, Bassman traded at Credit Suisse, Merril Lynch, and PIMCO. He joins Maggie Lake to talk about why using simple common sense led to his early success and how he got burned during the Global Financial Crisis by not listening to Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager portrayed by Steve Carrell in the hit movie “The Big Short.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’re witnessing the greatest stock market rally in the aftermath of a Federal Reserve rate hike since the 1970s, as investors seem to be celebrating inflation’s end. That’s despite the fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, surged to 6.8% in June, the highest reading since June 1982. Jerome Powell said this week’s 75-basis-point move gets the fed funds target range back to “neutral.” According to Jim Bianco, “That only works if you still believe in transitory and inflation is going back to 2%.” Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about why inflation is not “over,” what the Fed will do with “incoming data,” and when the recession will become “official.” We also hear from David Rosenberg about when and why the market will bottom. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s clearly not a good thing that the Commerce Department reported a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, with U.S. gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. But are we in recession? Following the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, George Goncalves forecast back-to-back 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July, warning the Federal Reserve could “miscalibrate and push us over the edge.” Well, we got 75 and 75. When will tightening financial conditions impact the economy and markets in a way that gets the Federal Reserve’s attention? And where can we look for such a signal? Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the journey from inflation risk to rate risk to credit risk. We also hear from Jim Bianco about what’s happening in perhaps the most critical area of global finance: “Things have already broken the bond market.” For Conclaves charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3vo88Qs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee delivered exactly as expected Wednesday afternoon, announcing a second consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate hike on a unanimous vote. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains, short-term U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the dollar softened in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. An otherwise anodyne FOMC statement did note “recent indicators of spending and production have softened,” though it also described the labor market as “robust” and inflation as “elevated.” The Fed remains “highly attentive to inflation risks,” as attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks. At the top of his prepared statement, Powell stressed the importance to long-term economic health of getting back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and the “rolling process” that is recession. We also hear a clip from Darius’s Fed Week conversation with Steven Van Metre and Jeffrey Snider about “getting back to neutral” when it comes to interest rates. You can watch that full conversation, including Roger Hirst’s commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption by 15%. Investors will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee until its decision on Wednesday and the post-meeting press conference. Will it be 50, 75, or even 100 basis points? Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the Federal Reserve’s options, the potential ripple effects of those choices, and why the Japanese yen remains a critical indicator of the health of the financial system. We also hear from Jeffrey Snider about what the eurodollar futures curve is telling us about the condition of the global economy. Watch the full interview featuring Steven Van Metre, Jeffrey Snider, and Darius Dale, with Roger Hirst’s “post game” commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he’s adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Michael, and Harry survey the current landscape, ponder what’s on the horizon, and debate solutions to a developing global energy crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in the green. He joins Maggie Lake to share the wisdom he’s accrued along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart shipments of blockaded grain and address the rising threat of famine across the Middle East and North Africa, a ray of hope amid what remains a complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, and global financial backdrop. Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action and recent moves by central banks to cope with circumstances that more and more seem beyond their control. Raoul also shares highlights from his recent conversation with Real Vision co-founder Damian Horner about an exciting new series currently in production. Watch the full conversation featuring Raoul and Damian here: https://www.realvision.com/an-update-from-raoul-and-damian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don’t spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan’s divergence from its peers, coining the phrase “yield spread control” to highlight a critical split at the heart of the global financial system. And former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist David Woo, now writing at DavidWooUnbound.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the ECB, softening U.S. economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the implications of a crumbling Chinese credit market. Are we fated for a stagflationary future? David and Maggie address that question and many more as the countdown to Fed Week continues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market showed significant deterioration last month. Still, according to Harry Melandri, we likely haven’t seen “peak inflation,” and so central banks will keep hiking rates. Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about how the Fed might respond to core CPI readings over the next quarter and to express his skepticism over Russia’s weaponization of its natural gas. “Do they need the money more than we need the gas?” We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why the Federal Reserve is “gonna slow down” and “take a pause.” Watch Stephan Clapham’s full interview with Harris here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In his most recent newsletter, Tony Greer of TG Macro wrote, “The setup for oil bulls on this gorgeous summer Friday morning is not to be believed. Stocks and commodities just spent the last quarter hemorrhaging in historic proportions, and now we’ve got a textbook turnaround setup…” Well, stocks are ripping today, and WTI crude oil is back above $104 per barrel, even as residential-starts data suggest the U.S. housing market is cooling and Apple announced plans to slow hiring and spending. Gasoline prices have fallen to two-month lows a week ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank is expected to announce another inflation-fighting 75-basis-point rate hike. Tony’s here to talk about all that and more with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake. We also hear from Chen Zhao about the coming “run of the mill” recession and how it differs from prior crisis-driven downturns. Watch the entire interview featuring Chen Zhao and Marko Papic here: https://rvtv.io/3aLSmrD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to make any promises regarding future crude oil output increases. European Union officials, in a sign of increasing desperation, did cut a natural gas deal with Azerbaijan. Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Laresen to talk about what happens when the Federal Reserve pushes the U.S. economy into recession to fight inflation. According to Gromen, many investors and policymakers are “seemingly oblivious to what the Federal deficit has done in the two recessions prior to COVID.” We also hear from Alexander Stahel about Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to inflict maximum pain on Europe via the weaponization of natural gas. Watch the entire interview featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3PGdw9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Shawn Hackett is the president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a firm that helps investors and hedgers (most notably farmers but end-users too) make better decisions when they get involved in agricultural commodities markets. Shawn joins Harry Melandri to talk about how weather patterns figure into commodity price forecasting, what impact current geopolitical factors could have on those prices, why we could face a cattle shortage, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed has amassed a Twitter following of more than 664,000. So how does he meet the expectations and manage the stress that come with such a public undertaking? In conversation with Maggie Lake, Michael shares his social media coping mechanisms, and he also explains how music became a creative outlet for him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jared Dillian tweeted it out: “It would take 8 months of 0.0% CPI readings to get CPI back to 5%.” And that was before the Commerce Department reported retail sales grew by a greater-than-expected 1% in June. President Joe Biden is in Saudi Arabia working on one angle of the inflation crisis, as investors re-priced the possibility of a 100-basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. Here’s something else Jared tweeted, yesterday: “Starting to think we put in bottoms in oil, gold, and stocks, and a top in the dollar at 10 am this morning.” The editor of The Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about those “bottoms” and how inflation and the Fed’s response to it is affecting the economy, markets, and expectations. We also hear from Anas Alhajji about short-term factors weighing on crude oil prices. Watch the full interview with Tony Greer and Anas Alhajji here: https://rvtv.io/3z9Rbvk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this week's jam-packed Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Ash Bennington, and Jim Bianco talk about everything from inflation and the US dollar to growth and tech, including crypto and so much more. Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims surged to a 2022 high. That’s to say nothing of the multiple failures in the crypto space. Financial economist and author Frances Coppola, the self-proclaimed "Notorious Crypto Skeptic," joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about inflation, financial markets, and what happens when banks – both traditional and “shadow” – collapse. We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why “the whole world is going to change.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IEtnmu. Watch the full interview with Harris Kupperman and Stephan Clapham here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcoming rate increase, what the Fed has already done will likely put the economy in recession, according to Eric Johnston, and that means earnings are likely to come down. Eric, the head of equity derivatives and cross asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Maggie Lake to talk about why earnings will catalyze the next leg down for equities markets. We also hear from Shawn Hackett about how to trade amid a correction in the commodities market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ayWL0O. Watch the full Interview with Shawn Hackett here: https://rvtv.io/3uJm1Zf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of economic expectations falling to minus 53.8 from 28.0 in June. Altogether, the euro dropped to a 20-year low versus the U.S. dollar, approaching parity on fear of an energy crisis and a recession. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the implications of euro-dollar parity, when falling crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices will show up in inflation figures, and the complex equation that could end in a global energy crisis. We also take a quick peek at today’s Insider Talks episode with Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3avxK6C. Watch the full Insider Talks episode here: https://rvtv.io/3IxryYo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze” and the “world recession” he says is its cost. We also hear from Raoul Pal about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yUwdjU. Watch Friday’s full Daily Briefing episode featuring Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3nVsvAs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value in precious metals and agricultural commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportunities on the long and short side. She joins Maggie Lake to discuss her unique career path, how her team puts together a report, and China’s history of expansion and retreat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL. To view today's charts click here: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20220708204027/20220708_RVDB_Charts.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices