Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The Institute for Supply Management reported today that its services index ticked up to 56.9 in August from 56.7 in July, expanding for the 27th consecutive month and catalyzing a “good news is bad news” leg of the recent equity selloff. It looks like investors are pricing in a higher probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks. The U.S. dollar is pushing out to multi-decade highs against multiple counterparts, including the Japanese yen and the euro. And the greenback is at all-time highs against the British pound, as the new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss steps into Number 10 as well as a raging energy crisis. And with the People’s Bank of China taking more aggressive steps to defend the yuan against depreciation, now is a good time to understand what’s happening in foreign exchange markets. Weston Nakamura, Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what we can learn from forex, perhaps the purest market on the planet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With a population of nearly 1.5 billion, an average age of 28, and a rapidly growing economy, India is a country we all should be following. Capitalmind CEO Deepak Shenoy joins Ash Bennington to talk about the innovation happening across one of the world’s most vibrant places. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Michael Venuto, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what he learned during his chaotic stretch on the New York Stock Exchange, how he got burned trading Royal Caribbean options in 2009, and why blockchain-traded funds will eventually replace ETFs. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. This morning’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21. And then there’s the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won’t sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about "black gold," volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did you miss Raoul Pal's Live AMA on YouTube? Well, you're in luck, because today we're releasing the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a community coming together for a deep conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he’s playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. James Altucher has been to hell and back. On the morning of September 11, 2001, James was just three blocks away from Ground Zero when two hijacked airplanes flew into the Twin Towers. He was one of the few who witnessed both impacts, and that led to years of post-traumatic stress disorder. He also went broke and lost everything. But he rebounded and found new success. James talks to Maggie Lake about the importance of resilience and open-mindedness when it comes to trading and investing and why he writes down 10 ideas every morning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke for eight minutes, offered three lessons, and generated one takeaway: “No pivot,” as Jim Bianco tweeted. The central bank will tighten monetary policy “until the job is done,” with Powell essentially promising pain for investors and workers alike. U.S. Treasury yields spiked and equity indexes sagged after the Fed Chair floated his short but stinging statement. Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed is willing to go to get what it wants and whether today’s data on July personal income and spending, including a decline in the Fed’s most-favored inflation gauge, is a sign it’s actually happening. Powell foreshadowed tough times, but the Fed and its acolytes have also said a potential recession will be short and shallow. So, is “short and shallow” the new “transitory”? And what in the world is happening in Europe, as German consumer confidence falls to an all-time low? We also hear from Dario Perkins about how the Fed can still pull off a “soft-ish” landing. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did you know the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world, with more than $5 trillion traded every single day? Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to break down everything that’s happening in forex right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia surged to near-record highs Wednesday, as the worst energy crisis in decades intensifies amid increasingly desperate competition for supplies. And Europe’s fertilizer crunch tightened after a major manufacturer cut output due to soaring costs – driven by natural gas prices. With twin humanitarian crises looming, Tony Greer tweeted, “Does anyone in Europe have a plan?” Tony, the founder of TG Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about energy, food, and what, if anything, all those central bankers gathering for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium can do to stave off a global catastrophe. We also hear from Adrian Day about “Dr. Copper” and what its supply-and-demand dynamic can tell us about economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Adrian Day and Larry McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3dZ9N9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Record-high temperatures and a severe drought in west-central China has crippled hydropower generation and prompted the shutdown of many factories in the latest blow to a Chinese economy already weighed down by stagnant consumer spending and a deeply troubled real estate market. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan will re-start more idled nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors to stabilize the island nation’s energy supply. Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what trouble in the East means for the West and how it’s playing out in forex markets. Then, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie to share a technical view of the market, including key levels for the S&P 500, energy commodities, and the U.S. dollar. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on the dollar and what its movement tells us about global liquidity. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The euro has broken below parity with the dollar, hitting a two-decade low on Tuesday amid multiple exigent crises that threaten not just growth but continental order. And the yuan has weakened to a two-year low against the buck, as Chinese authorities struggle to sustain growth amid a major housing market downturn. Traders see no bottom in sight for either currency, as China’s slowdown makes Europe’s troubles that much worse in a feedback loop with global implications. As we near the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Thursday, it’s fair to question what the Federal Reserve can do in a world where power prices in Germany reach the rough equivalent of crude oil at $1,000 per barrel. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about that as well as what a strong dollar means for financial markets and the global economy. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on tightening liquidity and what it means for equity markets. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes opened deep in the red and traded lower through the day, as investors price in “risk off” signals emerging everywhere from China to Germany and anticipate a big week of news from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As Weston Nakamura notes, today’s price action was foretold last Friday, when the Peoples Bank of China stepped in to defend the Chinese yuan. Prices of risk assets everywhere – including Bitcoin – began to retreat. Now we have more signs the European energy crisis is deepening, with natural gas prices surging on a new round of “maintenance” on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Weston joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the seemingly rapid shift to a “risk off” tone, signals from the forex market, this energy crisis, and how to trade this kind of action. We also hear from Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson about the relationship between pegged and un-pegged currencies. Watch the full video featuring Francis "The Market Sniper" Hunt and Brent Johnson here: https://rvtv.io/3AeYC3F. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Aksel Kibar, the managing director of Tech Charts Research & Trading, is a Chartered Market Technician with more than 15 years of experience as a classical trader and global equity market analyst. Aksel joins Harry Melandri for this week’s episode of The Next Big Trade to talk about the power of technical analysis and how reading charts can help you find your next big trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harry Melandri’s life has been both unconventional and exhilarating. He’s worked at some of the world’s premier financial institutions, including UBS and Deutsche Bank, and he also spent time at the Bank of England. Harry joins Maggie Lake to share stories from his remarkable career and the lessons he learned a long the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard isn’t ready to say inflation has peaked and at this point leans toward a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month. The central bank is fighting back against a market that’s already pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2023. But here’s the best way to think about when the Fed might “pivot,” according to Jared Dillian: “Remember, they don’t hike until things are cool. They hike until something breaks.” And there’s the political angle too: “Remember, the Fed still has to be seen doing something about inflation.” Jared joins Maggie Lake to talk about inflation in its domestic and global guises, what central banks can and will do to fight it, and whether we might be too bearish given all the bad news that’s already out there. We also hear from Rob Arnott about Wall Street inflation expectations and what, exactly, is fueling them. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Jeff Snider, the chief strategist at Atlas Financial and the co-host of the Eurodollar University podcast, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the “grotesquely upside down” Eurodollar futures curve in another gripping episode of The Next Big Trade. Jeff and Harry also discuss the implications of a rising U.S. dollar and the consequences of a collateral shortage for the global financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Imagine losing $4 million and the opportunity to set up your family for life as well as your digital identity in less than a year. Sergio Silva, the sales director at Fireblocks, joins Maggie Lake for a riveting episode of My Life in 4 Trades, where he talks about his ups and downs in a volatile 2022, shares the hard lessons he’s learned and explains how his Mexican roots give him the perspective and the strength to play the long game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks surged again this morning on news the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in July, the first monthly decline since April 2020. At the same time, producer prices were up 9.8% year over year. And multiple Federal Reserve officials said tightening would continue until inflationary pressures completely ease. “Stocks are going up,” notes Harry Melandri, an advisor at Mi2 Partners and the host of Real Vision’s The Next Big Trade podcast, “and that doesn’t seem consistent with Fed statements.” That we need inflation to have peaked and to no longer be a problem does not mean, of course, that it’s happened. To that end, we hear from emerging markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius about reasons to start nibbling amid what’s still a bear market as well as the possibility that there’s another shoe to drop because the Fed remains hawkish. Harry joins Maggie Lake, the host of Real Vision’s My Life in 4 Trades podcast, to talk about all that and much more, including Harry’s Cheesecake Factory anecdote. Watch the full interview featuring Mark Mobius and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3zHPXXi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks gapped higher at today’s open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July’s Consumer Price Index data that we’ve finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning’s report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It’s critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that’s able to recognize it in real-time.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out." Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If last week’s events in and around Taiwan illustrate Asia’s growing geopolitical importance, today’s announcement by SoftBank that it lost $23 billion in the second quarter also make it the home to “the world’s largest dumb retail investor,” as Weston Nakamura put it. Weston joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about SoftBank and to preview Wednesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. With the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey of consumer expectations showing substantial declines in short-, medium-, and long -term inflation expectations, Maggie welcomes Dave Floyd, the president of Aspen Trading Group, for an update on financial markets from a technical analyst’s perspective. Where are key levels of support and resistance for the major equity indexes? What are forex markets telling us? And is this merely a bear market rally? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Lawson Steele, one of the most respected analysts of carbon trading and EU Emissions Trading System markets, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European energy supply and demand, sharing an informed perspective on the short-, medium-, and long-term future for the political and economic union. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this edition of Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Damian Horner, Maggie Lake, and George Stanoev join Ash Bennington to introduce Real Vision’s newest groundbreaking venture, the Real Vision Academy. Our panel talks about the many ways the Academy can help you and your portfolio grow along your investing journey and answers from the Space about the Academy and its mission to make better investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of the pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Maggie Lake for another compelling episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Hodges, a 40-year financial veteran, talks about when markets will stop Fed-watching and refocus on core fundamental principles and the process of price discovery. He also explains why every trade has four possible outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity indexes slipped into negative territory Monday afternoon and the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve inverted even further, as investors price in easing inflation and slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to a 25-month low, and home prices registered the fastest cool-down in history during July. Meanwhile, whether Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan on Tuesday is more fuel for the conflagration that is the postwar geopolitical order. With the world’s most important central bank now “data dependent,” Real Vision macro analyst Roger Hirst joins Maggie Lake to contextualize recent economic reports and explain how to use them to make better investment and trading decisions – one of the key elements of the brand-new Real Investing Course from Real Vision. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about recent price action on the critical USD/JPY front. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Rob Dugger, the founder of Hanover Investment Group and a co-founder of ReadyNation, joins host Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rob shares his thoughts on how inequality has created malinvestment in the U.S. and why investing in infrastructure and national security could help the economy regain strength and stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harley Bassman has worked in finance for more than 40 years. Before becoming a managing partner at Simplify, Bassman traded at Credit Suisse, Merril Lynch, and PIMCO. He joins Maggie Lake to talk about why using simple common sense led to his early success and how he got burned during the Global Financial Crisis by not listening to Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager portrayed by Steve Carrell in the hit movie “The Big Short.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’re witnessing the greatest stock market rally in the aftermath of a Federal Reserve rate hike since the 1970s, as investors seem to be celebrating inflation’s end. That’s despite the fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, surged to 6.8% in June, the highest reading since June 1982. Jerome Powell said this week’s 75-basis-point move gets the fed funds target range back to “neutral.” According to Jim Bianco, “That only works if you still believe in transitory and inflation is going back to 2%.” Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about why inflation is not “over,” what the Fed will do with “incoming data,” and when the recession will become “official.” We also hear from David Rosenberg about when and why the market will bottom. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s clearly not a good thing that the Commerce Department reported a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, with U.S. gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. But are we in recession? Following the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, George Goncalves forecast back-to-back 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July, warning the Federal Reserve could “miscalibrate and push us over the edge.” Well, we got 75 and 75. When will tightening financial conditions impact the economy and markets in a way that gets the Federal Reserve’s attention? And where can we look for such a signal? Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the journey from inflation risk to rate risk to credit risk. We also hear from Jim Bianco about what’s happening in perhaps the most critical area of global finance: “Things have already broken the bond market.” For Conclaves charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3vo88Qs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee delivered exactly as expected Wednesday afternoon, announcing a second consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate hike on a unanimous vote. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains, short-term U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the dollar softened in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. An otherwise anodyne FOMC statement did note “recent indicators of spending and production have softened,” though it also described the labor market as “robust” and inflation as “elevated.” The Fed remains “highly attentive to inflation risks,” as attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks. At the top of his prepared statement, Powell stressed the importance to long-term economic health of getting back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and the “rolling process” that is recession. We also hear a clip from Darius’s Fed Week conversation with Steven Van Metre and Jeffrey Snider about “getting back to neutral” when it comes to interest rates. You can watch that full conversation, including Roger Hirst’s commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption by 15%. Investors will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee until its decision on Wednesday and the post-meeting press conference. Will it be 50, 75, or even 100 basis points? Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the Federal Reserve’s options, the potential ripple effects of those choices, and why the Japanese yen remains a critical indicator of the health of the financial system. We also hear from Jeffrey Snider about what the eurodollar futures curve is telling us about the condition of the global economy. Watch the full interview featuring Steven Van Metre, Jeffrey Snider, and Darius Dale, with Roger Hirst’s “post game” commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he’s adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Michael, and Harry survey the current landscape, ponder what’s on the horizon, and debate solutions to a developing global energy crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in the green. He joins Maggie Lake to share the wisdom he’s accrued along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart shipments of blockaded grain and address the rising threat of famine across the Middle East and North Africa, a ray of hope amid what remains a complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, and global financial backdrop. Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action and recent moves by central banks to cope with circumstances that more and more seem beyond their control. Raoul also shares highlights from his recent conversation with Real Vision co-founder Damian Horner about an exciting new series currently in production. Watch the full conversation featuring Raoul and Damian here: https://www.realvision.com/an-update-from-raoul-and-damian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices