Real Vision: Finance & Investing

U.S. stocks fell to start the week, with the Nasdaq leading to the downside. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen 5.6% so far this month. So, how much more room is there below? Let’s see what the charts have to say. On today’s show, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie Lake to share her short- and long-term outlook for the markets and review the technical risks facing investors as we head into the new year. Plus, we’ll hear from Felix Zulauf about why he sees a more brutal wave of inflation coming in 2023 and beyond, and Peter Brandt on why he’s bullish on gold in the new year. Watch the Felix Zulauf interview here: https://rvtv.io/3BFy1hI. Watch Peter Brants’ interview here: https://rvtv.io/3uNHSyb. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Peter Brandt is the CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm he founded in 1980 that trades proprietary capital, forex, futures, fixed income, and equity markets. Brandt is widely recognized as one of the finest classical chartists in the world, and now he joins MI2 Partners’ Harry Melandri to break down why all signs are pointing to a major move in gold in 2023. Brandt also shares why he’s interested in Bitcoin and breaks down several eye-popping charts throughout the episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You’ve never gone as deep with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal as you will in this special two-part episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Raoul talks to Maggie Lake about everything from his childhood in the U.K. to his early days in finance – and, of course, the most impressive trades of his career and what he learned from them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets sold off again today to close the week, down drastically from Tuesday morning’s post-CPI highs. The reversal comes as central bankers in the U.S. and abroad continued to hike interest rates despite mounting evidence of a looming recession. On today’s show, Warren Pies, the co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what 2023 will bring, what’s driving the action in energy markets, and why he believes it’s obvious that we’ve moved past peak inflation. According to Warren, we could be de due for a sharp disinflation trend that will bring opportunities. “The future belongs to the optimists, but, for now, the pessimists are in control,” Warren wrote in his 2023 outlook report. We’ll also hear from Felix Zulauf, the CEO of Zulauf Consulting, on the major geopolitical and economic volatility that lies ahead. Watch that entire Interview here: https://rvtv.io/3BFy1hI. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Description The European Central Bank and Bank of England followed the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates another 50 basis points this morning. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% and two regional measures of U.S. manufacturing activity slipped, as consumers and producers alike feel the brunt of a contracting economy. Stocks are considerably lower on the day, with the NASDAQ down 3.75% as of this writing. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss what’s driving the latest selloff and how he’s positioning for 2023. Plus, we’ll hear from Dr. Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, on the difference between buying energy and buying stock of energy companies. Watch the entire Interview here: https://rvtv.io/3huD0ec. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points today. It was a seventh consecutive rate hike from the Fed, four straight three-quarter point hikes. Markets moved lower in response to the expected lower increase, as forecasts now show a higher terminal interest rate later in 2023. Meanwhile, the U.K. inflation rate eased from a 41-year high in November. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale of 42 Macro joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what the Fed’s hike --- and the potential of deflation setting in --- means for asset classes in 2023. We’ll also be joined by Real Vision macro expert James Helliwell to discuss today’s U.K. Inflation data and what it means for the Bank of England’s rate hike decision tomorrow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged this morning after cooler-than-expected inflation data showed that consumer prices in November rose at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% from the prior month and 7.1% year-over-year, down sharply from 7.7% YoY in October. But by noon ET, stocks erased all gains and now appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision. Is deflation starting to do some work for the Federal Reserve? Or will Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Co. keep hiking interest rates into a recession? On today’s Daily Briefing, Ash Bennington is joined by Real Vision senior markets editor Andreas Steno Larsen and Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator to discuss what various asset classes are signaling about inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Bilal Hafeez, the CEO of MacroHive, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on the upcoming Fed decision and what ripple effects it could have on the global economy. The market is pricing in a drop in inflation ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, but will that signal a green light for investors? Plus, we’ll also hear from expert Fed watcher Joseph Wang on why a recession won’t be as bad as many people think, and why inflation should be our main concern. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FmKPL9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, above market forecasts of 0.2%. In today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets’ president Brent Donnelly to help us understand the latest inflation data and what it means for next week’s Federal funds rate announcement. Plus, Brent will share some insights on trader positioning from his firm’s 2023 Q1 consensus survey. Shocker… everybody’s bearish. We also hear from Former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark on why we are looking at macro all wrong. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FELx7C Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. jobless claims this morning rose to their highest level since February. Meanwhile, China’s outbound shipments plunged 8.7% year-over-year and Hong Kong stocks rose 3% as the financial hub considers easing up on covid lockdowns. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Taimur Baig, the Chief Economist of Singapore-based bank DBS, to discuss the mixed economic data from around the world, and hear why Taimur believes the global economy could be setting up for a promising recovery. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Price action continues to reflect investors’ collective ambivalence about what comes next, with Wall Street warning of grim prospects for both stocks and growth in 2023. As Jason De Sena Trennert sees it, the “greatest risk to the economy and markets may be the Fed’s need to tighten more than risk markets anticipate.” That crude oil is probing near-term lows even as China eases some “COVID zero” restrictions is just one point of confusion. Trennert, the founder and CEO of Strategas Securities, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what crude oil and other key markets are telling us right now, how inflation will become “sticky,” and why the Federal Reserve will have to go higher for longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. equity sell-off extended to a fourth straight trading session today, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite again led to the downside with a 2.18% loss two hours ahead of the close. Meta Platforms is under regulatory scrutiny in the European Union, Apple is contending with supply-chain restructuring, and Tesla faces stiffening competition amid its CEO’s social media dabbling. And job cuts across the broad tech sector suggest we may be witnessing the end of an era. Maggie Lake welcomes Eric Jackson, the founder of EMJ Capital, to talk about what’s happening with big tech – and to distinguish it from growth tech. We also hear from Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, about the challenges of building more robust supply chains. Watch the full conversation between Whitney Baker and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/perform. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of services activity rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, surprising to the upside and stirring fresh worry the Federal Reserve will continue to err on the hawkish side when it comes to monetary policy. The major U.S. equity indexes all sagged more than 1%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shedding 2.13% two hours ahead of the close. Crude oil climbed, however, as a G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian production kicked in and China inched closer to re-opening its economy. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the global crude oil market, the shift back to “services” from “goods” as the pandemic recedes into memory, and the durability of demand. Later, Maggie welcomes Jeff Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, to talk about emerging opportunities in small-cap technology names. We also hear from Diego Parilla about a new paradigm based on higher inflation, permanent volatility, and elevated risk. Keep an eye out for the full conversation between Maggie Lake and Diego Parilla, to be released tomorrow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring and wage growth suggested inflation is more than a matter of snarled supply chains and a European war. Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the implications of persistent U.S. labor market strength. We also hear from Whitney Baker on why a recession is the only thing that will stunt consumption and thus slow inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Whitney Baker here: rvtv.io/3VIFnbU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time for moderating” interest-rate increases “may come as soon as December.” The market seized on the step-down from 75 basis points to 50 rather than Powell’s codicils: the rate peak is likely “somewhat higher” than the Fed’s September forecast, and there’s a long way to go to restore price stability. In addition to more restrictive monetary policy, Powell noted the critical importance of labor market balance among the macro conditions the Fed wants to see before it’ll say inflation is whipped. Dave Lauer, the CEO of Urvin Finance, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech, recent economic data, and the implications of a “sustained period of below-trend growth” that gets us back to price stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career in markets and to explain his unique methods of analyzing price action. Weston and Anthony also talk about why the Bank of Japan is the most influential central bank of our time and a potential catalyst for further bond market volatility. Watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/@WTFinancepodcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs report. Chinese authorities seem to have stifled “Zero COVID” protests, as concerns about growth in the world’s second-largest economy persist. Crude oil prices have stabilized today, with the generic front-month futures contract trading around the historically significant $75 per barrel level. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, the energy trade, and why in the world the Netherlands has agreed to basically destroy 3,000 working farms and what impact the move will have on global food markets. We also hear from Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, who makes the bearish case for crude oil heading into 2023. Watch the entire conversation between Michael Coolbaugh and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3Uc9uHr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China’s lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China’s relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYBt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening will continue, though at a less intense pace, and the policy interest rate may even reach a higher terminal level than initially forecast. That’s as more and more indicators point to slowing growth in the U.S. At the same time, data from Europe suggest things may not be as dire as once feared. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central bankers, markets, and the economy (perhaps a little World Cup, too) in the middle of a holiday-shortened trading week in the U.S. Andreas and Weston assess near-term price action in the broader macro context — and separate the hawks from the doves just ahead of Turkey Day. We also hear from Jamie McDonald about position-sizing, portfolio management, and the importance of process in a complex macro environment. Watch the complete “We Got the Message” episode featuring Jamie McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3F5TtPj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That’s even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian to the Daily Briefing to talk about what key markets are telling us heading into the end of the year and how the Fed is likely to handle recent softer inflation data. And Andy Constan, the CEO of Damped Spring, explains the two ways central bankers can really kill inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andy Constan and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3TXQsEA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two hours ahead of the close, but long-duration Treasury yields had sent a decidedly risk-off message on signs the domestic economy is slowing. Crude oil prices reached lows not seen since January, with OPEC denying reports it will discuss production increases when it meets in December. And we’ll have more insight on central bank thinking when minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday. Greg Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what a re-assertion of dollar strength means for the market right now. We also hear from Michael Gayed about the implications of falling U.S. Treasury yields in an excerpt from the October 28 Daily Briefing. Watch the full conversation between Michael Gayed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: rvtv.io/3VizvWO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk and opportunity around the world. Sri joins Harry Melandri to explain why China’s global ambitions represent a major macro risk and, at the same time, how emerging markets have never had more potential for growth. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking. In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset and why embracing lifelong learning is the key to success. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. That follows San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Meanwhile, the United Nations has brokered a deal that will get Ukrainian grain transiting the Black Sea safely, easing pressure on global food prices, and China’s COVID policy remains as opaque as ever. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, to interpret recent Fedspeak and to talk about what’s happening in commodities markets. We also hear from Juliette Declercq about how the Federal Reserve can navigate a soft landing and why she’s focused on U.S. equities. Watch the full conversation between Juliette Declercq and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3AoHkSt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary course. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool currently shows 4.4% fourth-quarter growth. Marc Chandler, the managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex would take issue with that forecast: “The US economy is expected to struggle under the weight of past monetary tightening,” he notes, “and what we do not appreciate is the extent of fiscal tightening.” Marc joins Maggie Lake to talk about the big picture, how it’s reflected in currency pairs and global yields, what we should expect from the Federal Reserve, and why we should be skeptical of China. We also hear from Roger Hirst about the broader implications of a dollar pull-back. Watch the full Insider Talks episode featuring Roger Hirst here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fired a strong open for equities Tuesday morning. “Be patient,” advises Dale Pinkert, “and wait for pullbacks.” Pinkert, the head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to talk about whether the trend has changed for the U.S. dollar and key levels to watch for the euro, precious metals, and soft commodities. We also hear from Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group about the technical indicators that guide his trading day. Watch the full conversation between Dave Floyd and James Helliwell here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index data, relatively dovish words from Federal Reserve insiders, and the still-unraveling FTX situation. With inflation seeming to ebb as a global concern, President Joe Biden is in Bali for his first face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping. “I continue to maintain that China is a significant risk for global investors,” notes Komal Sri-Kumar. “That goes for both investors in that country as well as for global markets in general.” The founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies joins Weston Nakamura to talk about consequences of too-rapid a transition from overly accommodative to overly restrictive monetary policy and what comes next for the economy. We also hear from performance coach Denise Shull of The Rethink Group about how to manage emotion and maximize effective decision-making in high-stress situations. Watch the full conversation between Denise Shull and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3E4p2XT. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power option and rising demand for uranium in the latest episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communications shop in the White House during the Trump administration. And he’s seen and experienced all sorts of success and failure. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, the founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and chairman of the SALT Conference shares with Maggie Lake how his humble upbringing shaped his career and what it taught him about the value of authenticity. **NOTE - This interview was recorded on October 10th, 2022** Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. And U.S. stocks are staging their biggest rally since 2020. Weston Nakamura welcomes Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to break down October Consumer Price Index data and provide some context for today’s “melt-up.” Then, Weston and CrossBorder Capital CEO Michael Howell assess the broader investing climate, including the key issue driving price action: liquidity. “The next few months will be challenging,” Howell wrote in his most recent note to clients, “as recession hits earnings and central banks raise rates further.” Michael and Ash Bennington discuss “Everything You Need To Know About Liquidity” here: rvtv.io/3Eo5wah. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in U.S. dollars,” notes Darius Dale at the top of a recent tweet-thread explaining specifically what’s happening with crippled crypto exchange FTX and generally what happens during liquidity crunches. Meanwhile, Chinese economic data continue to deteriorate, despite low interest rates and high savings rates. Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura welcomes Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the contagion potential of the FTX debacle, China’s liquidity trap, the global macro environment, and actionable signals on today’s Daily Briefing. We also share a clip from Jim Bianco’s appearance on today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing about the still-developing FTX story, with an emphasis on trust and centralization versus decentralization. Check out today’s Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/3thr8yt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes surged early on Election Day but sagged heading into the last two hours of trading, rising perhaps in anticipation of a market-friendly divided government in Washington D.C. Gold rallied as well, a sign that investors may have some concerns about Republican promises to hold the line against future debt-ceiling increases without cuts to entitlement programs. And then there’s the fact that the second-largest crypto exchange in the world teetered on the edge of collapse before being rescued by its main competitor – is this a sign that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s aims are coming true? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap, to sort out today’s price action. And Ash Bennington joins the conversation for an update on Binance’s acquisition of FTX. Be sure to watch today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/ftxbinance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes held modest gains at midday Monday, as investors prepare for midterm elections with particularly global potential consequences. Andreas Sten Larsen goes around the world with Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist at Perch Perspectives, for briefings on the major geopolitical issues and their impact on financial markets, including Europe’s energy crisis, China’s reopening, and America’s elections. We also hear from Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Burggraben Holding AG, about the multiple challenges that will combine to extend Europe’s energy crisis into and beyond 2023. Watch the full conversation featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3WzREk0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins Harry Melandri to explain why he’s long energy. He also talks about major shifts in global trade and volatility in the sovereign debt market on another captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chris Sullivan, a portfolio manager of Hyperion Decimus, transitioned from traditional finance to crypto – and he says it’s the best move of his career. A lot of that has to do with crypto’s freek-market system, where bailouts are not an option. Chris explains how that cutthroat culture has attracted – and continues to attract – some of the best minds in the world. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks opened higher but drifted lower through the trading day, digesting an October nonfarm payrolls report that showed a still-strong labor market in the aftermath of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forceful rejection of “pivot” talk earlier this week and ahead of crucial midterm elections next week. Traders are now pricing in a 5.25% peak policy rate via the June 2023 swap contract. “I don’t think this changes anything in the Fed’s calculation,” noted Peter Boockvar in response to the jobs report, “but I do believe the trend in the unemployment rate is now going higher and will be 4%-plus soon.” Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakly Advisory Group, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about when the Fed might finally change, or at least pause, its current policy path and the implications of Tuesday’s voting in the U.S. We also hear from Alexander Stahel about why U.S. immunity to the global energy crisis is an illusion. Watch the full conversation featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3WzREk0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any thoughts of a “pivot.” Today, the Bank of England followed the Fed with its own 75-basis-point rate hike, even as it warned what would be the country’s longest recession ever has already started and will continue through 2023 and into 2024. The dollar is strengthening against the pound again, though the prospect of a “soft landing” stateside seems to be growing more and more remote. “The world is confronted with many new threats,” writes Vincent Deluard in his most recent newsletter, “and the next twelve months feel abnormally uncertain.” Deluard, the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stone X, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent moves by central banks, his 2023 outlook, and his “Holy Trinity” picks for this market. We also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen about the natural gas supply situation in Europe this heating season and, more importantly, next winter. Watch the complete conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3DCRpvQ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate increase, noting that it will take into account time lags and the impact of cumulative tightening during future meetings. In his post-FOMC-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the centrality of price stability to sustained economic growth, acknowledged data indicating the U.S. economy is slowing, and noted the continuing strength of a still “out-of-balance” labor market. George Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the FOMC statement was neutral, hawkish, or dovish, overall liquidity heading into the end of the year, and why we need to keep an eye on overseas markets. We also hear from Jesse Felder, the author of The Felder Report, about why we face a period of elevated inflation and what investments will work in such an environment. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions on economic activity. There was no follow-through in the U.S., though, as investors remain focused on Wednesday and the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decision. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what impact a reopening of the Chinese economy China will have on global commodity markets and how to position for potential upside. We also hear from Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report, about how changing investment patterns will impact the technology and energy sectors. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as political leaders continue to pose against the global energy problem. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes the congenitally acerbic and always insightful Green Chicken for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about realistic solutions to a situation that only seems to be growing worse by the day – with inflation yet to peak and still more resource-scarcity promised by Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. We also hear from White Tundra Investments CEO Shubham Garg, who shares his reasoning for exponential growth in global oil demand. Watch Shubham Garg’s complete presentation here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/3-ideas/videos/where-to-pick-in-canadas-energy-patch-LwzQ?tab=details. THIS IS THE FINAL DAY OF REAL VISION’S “CRASH CAMPAIGN” DISCOUNTS! Head over to www.realvision.com/crashpricing to subscribe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through small-value equities. Rasmussen explains why it makes sense and how to time the trade in a captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Born into a family of cotton traders, Alexander Stahel is a natural when it comes to commodities. Alexander grew up in Switzerland before he migrated to the U.K. to begin an investment banking career. Now the chief investment officer at Burggraben Holding, the Zug, Switzerland-based firm he founded, he’s focused on finding great value in a few public and private companies. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Alexander explains why – just like golf – trading is not a “perfect” game. He also talks about how to avoid blind spots and shares his forecast for the energy space. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged into the weekend, with all three major U.S. equity indexes up more than 2% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. “The market isn't rallying on hopes of a pivot,” tweeted Michael Gayed. “It's rallying on bond-market stabilization.” Michael, the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to elaborate on his contrarian “melt-up” thesis and to talk about sentiment and other technical factors such as breadth and seasonality. “I don’t believe the end of the world is here,” Michael added. “This year, the market has conditioned people to think it will do nothing but go lower.” We also share a preview of “the most important interview in the history of Real Vision,” as Raoul Pal put it, featuring Emad Mostaque and his vision of artificial intelligence of, by, and for the people. Watch the full conversation between Emad Mostaque and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3SGhTSU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The European Central Bank announced a second 75-basis-point interest-rate increase in as many months on Thursday, meeting economists’ expectations with inflation riding at a record-high 9.9%. The euro weakened against the dollar, even as Treasury yields softened, as investor concern about future growth seems to be intensifying. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6% during the third quarter. Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura joins Maggie Lake live in Real Vision’s New York studio for a special edition of the Daily Briefing to talk about the new “widow-maker” trade and the dilemma central bankers face, illustrated by the Bank of Japan’s money-printing into the Ministry of Finance’s yen-buying. Weston discusses in greater depth the emerging conflicts between governments and their central banks here: https://rvtv.io/3DhzACD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

More central banks are signaling turns away from tightening as concerns about growth have begun to overwhelm fears of inflation, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate by a smaller-than-expected 50 basis points today. It’s notable that the Canadian dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar. On the fiscal front, Japan has prepared a 67.1 trillion yen stimulus package. Oh, and Google’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports are dragging the Nasdaq Composite toward a 2% loss. When he last visited the Daily Briefing, Darius Dale pointed out that there’s no recession until we see an inversion of the three-month/10-year yield curve – well, it was very small, but that did happen yesterday. So, what now? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about all that and more. We also hear from Lee Robinson about Jerome Powell’s sensitivity to Paul Volcker’s record on fighting inflation. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“Markets are rallying right now based on a massive overshoot in technicals and sentiment,” explained Mark Ritchie II in a note today. “The bears overplayed their hand, and the bulls are trying to push back.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the factors driving this equity rally, whether it’s durable, what the Federal Reserve will do from here. “The market is trying to look through to the end of the Fed tightening cycle,” Ritchie II added, “and that’s the $64 million question.” We also hear from Lee Robinson about the emergence of “so many interesting distressed ideas” amid ongoing market turmoil. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices