Real Vision: Finance & Investing

President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power and took definitive steps to reverse a half-century of open relations with the West at last weekend’s National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, triggering a steep sell-off of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. The major equity indexes were all well in the green through midday – “Powder dry kind of day… yields up, VIX up, dollar steady – action sloppy,” is how Michele “Mish” Schneider, the Director of Trading Research and Education at MarketGauge.com, described it on Twitter. Maggie Lake welcomes Mish for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what she’s looking at as earnings season kicks into high gear, inflation, commodities, and the dollar. We also hear from Victor Shih on President Xi Jinping’s motivation for closing China. Watch the complete conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here:https://rvtv.io/3gFAdOR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Jeff Dorman, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Arca, gets personal with Maggie Lake. Jeff explains why he quit traditional finance, shares the lessons he had to learn and unlearn after years of working on Wall Street, and talks about how he’s become a calculated risk-taker. After trading at leading TradFi firms such as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Citadel, Jeff moved to Los Angeles for a new blockchain-powered career and to find a work-life balance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on Friday when she said the central bank should try to avoid an “unforced downturn” by over-tightening. The U.S. dollar softened against major currency pairs, including the Japanese yen in spectacular fashion, and Treasury yields also declined. Saudi Arabia and China are forging new ties over crude oil, as the geopolitical-macroeconomic landscape continues to shift. Ash Bennington welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about what the Fed will look at as it determines policy from here, the key factors driving inflation right now, and the state of the global energy market. We also hear from Victor Shih about China’s priorities for the next five years and its changing position in the global economy. Be sure to tune in on Monday, October 24th to watch the conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a fresh cycle high of 4.18% on Thursday, as stocks struggled to hold gains amid more hawkish talk from Federal Reserve officials about inflation. Across the pond, the British pound has returned to pre-mini-budget level, the gilt market has calmed, and Liz Truss has resigned as the shortest-serving Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in history. And Elon Musk might someday own Twitter, but his electric car business posted weak earnings. Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how he’s approaching the markets these days, the bullish pattern developing in crude oil, and Tesla’s disappointing quarter. We also hear from Christopher Dembik about the U.K.’s devolution into an emerging market. Watch Ash Bennington’s full interview with Christopher Dembik here: https://rvtv.io/3CINMEc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, as investors priced in the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish policy stancy until there are meaningful signs of an easing in core inflation. The impact of higher interest rates is already being felt in key areas of the economy, such as the U.S. home mortgage market, where applications for both new purchases and refinancing have plummeted and builder sentiment has sagged to 25-year lows. Inflation in the U.K., meanwhile, reached its own 40-year peak, up 10.1% from a year ago. “King Dollar ... Reign of Terror!!” is the headline on Greg Weldon’s latest market commentary, and he has a point. Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the effects of a strong U.S. dollar on markets. We also hear from David Rosenberg about the down-the-line impact of the Fed’s massive liquidity withdrawal and what we could be facing come 2023. Watch the full conversation between David Rosenberg and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-essential-conversation/videos/forewarned-is-forearmed-reflecting-on-black-monday-0aOg?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 1% through midday Tuesday, as energy stocks hit a 52-week high relative to crude oil futures. That’s a data point Maggie Lake is sure to raise with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, during today’s Daily Briefing, with reports that President Joe Biden is considering further sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset critical supply shortages. Meanwhile, the Bank of England denied a Financial Times report that the central bank would delay its program of gilt sales, as fragmentation of monetary policy in response to economic pressures continues to roil bond and forex markets. Maggie and Tony will also talk about commodities, positioning, and the broader market trend. We also hear from Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden on the state of the real estate market. Pro Macro subscribers can watch the complete Insider Talks featuring Raoul and Julian here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/insider-talks/videos/macro-pro-insider-talks-october-2022-live-mXN3?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“The U.S. Dollar Index is on the verge of actually looking weaker,” noted Dave Floyd around midday today. “Key levels are 112.50 and 112.21. A close below here and we’re looking at 109.64.” Is the prospect of a softer dollar sufficient to explain a near-4% rally for the Nasdaq Composite, a 3% gain for the S&P 500, and a 2% rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Dave, the founder of Aspen Trading, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about today’s rally and what’s driving it, how he traded it, and using tools such as position-sizing to manage risk in a volatile market. We also hear from Brent Johnson about his “dollar milkshake” theory. Watch the full conversation featuring Brent Johnson and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3gfDdkq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Warren Mosler, an American economist and entrepreneur, is perhaps the leading proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). But what is MMT? And how can it help us understand what’s happening at a macro level right now? Mosler explains it all to Harry Melandri on another riveting episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There’s nothing ordinary about Bill Browder’s life. After earning an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 1989, he moved to Russia with the intention of becoming the “biggest capitalist in Eastern Europe.” Bill’s dream manifested with the opening of the Hermitage Fund, which became the best-performing hedge fund in the world. In this captivating episode of My Life in Four Trades, the venture capitalist turned political activist joins Maggie Lake to share the distinct highlights and harrowing downsides to his success: taking on and taking down business oligarchs of the old Soviet republics, the tragic death of his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, and his emergence as Vladimir Putin’s No. 1 enemy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The situation in the U.K. is going from bad to worse, with Prime Minister Liz Truss now in danger of losing her own job after firing her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and short-circuiting her own economic package mere weeks into her tenure. U.S. equities drifted lower Friday in the aftermath of Thursday’s historic reversal, as retail sales for September stagnated due to the effects of inflation. But the issue is the U.K. What the heck is going on? And is it merely the first sign of a major global economic crisis? Jim Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Ash Bennington to talk about the wild price action in U.S. equities, the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and, as we head into the weekend, what to expect from traditional markets on Monday. And be sure to check out Real Vision’s newest series, The Collectors where we’ll emphasize the fun and the adventure of deploying your hard-earned money! You can watch the first episode here: https://rvtv.io/3ToL7Gu. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Co-Founder & CEO, Raoul Pal, answers the internets questions and covers everything from macro & crypto to wine, scuba diving, food and art! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Within three hours today, S&P 500 futures swung from a 3.9% decline to a 3.9% rally. “It's pretty incredible,” tweeted Jared Dillian shortly after noon, “to watch people get fooled by the market over and over again. It's not hard – when there's no one left to sell, they cover.” Weston Nakamura has a more global perspective on the reversal, noting that the U.K. and the pound as well as Japan and the yen still linger as potential crisis points. Jared raised an interesting point in today’s edition of The Daily Dirtnap: that we’re in “a bubble of bearish sentiment.” Weston and Jared join Maggie Lake to talk about the significance of today’s price action. The violent reversal was surely concerning, hardly the sign of a healthy market. Jared, Weston, and Maggie unpack the reaction to the most recent U.S. inflation data and what it means for central bankers and global financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Producer Price Index for September came in hotter than expected, as investors brace for the Thursday morning release of Consumer Price Index data. Minutes to the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee reveal a central bank as determined as ever to “stay the course” toward “restrictive rates in the near term.” With cracks in the global financial system getting bigger by the day, Maggie Lake welcomes Cem Karsan, the founder of Aegea Capital Management, to talk about the significance of the monetary regime change and to answer one simple question: How do we play this volatility? We also hear from ZipRecruiter.com Chief Economist Julia Pollak about the enduring strength of the U.S. labor market. Watch the full conversion between Julia Pollak and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3MoBEwJ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bank of England intervened in the U.K gilt market for the second time in two days Tuesday, with the following warning: "Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing 'fire sale' dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability." Real Vision Macro Analyst James Helliwell joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the BofE’s latest move and what kind of signal it is for a global financial system where conditions are already tight and tense. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast on inflation’s negative effects, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s broad-based slowdown. Maggie welcomes Komal Sri-Kumar, the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, for a discussion of central bank policy and where there may be opportunities for investors who aren’t distracted by a hawkish Federal Reserve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks opened to the downside but trended higher throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking into positive territory in the early afternoon, as investors prepare for Thursday morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for September. The up-and-down action surely reflects confusion: Market internals and sentiment data are actually bullish, but policymakers are raising the degree of difficulty. “In normal times,” writes Geo Chen in his most recent Substack post, “trading global macro is like playing 5-dimensional chess, which is hard enough. Today, with the added variables of geopolitics and central bankers on a mission, we are playing 10-dimensional chess.” Geo, the editor of Fidenza Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what markets are telling us. We also hear from George Whitehead about what might make the Federal Reserve lift its foot from the monetary tightening brake. Watch the full conversation featuring George Whitehead and Larry McDonald here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-geopolitics/videos/london-calling-what-will-break-next-vxN2?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In Jeff Booth’s eyes, money is just information, and we desire the feeling we get when we have more of it. It’s also why, according to Booth, that money is being manipulated by central banks at an unprecedented rate to avoid a collapse in the credit system. So, how do we make things better? There is no perfect solution. But Booth sees a clear favorite, capable of delivering inordinate societal value. The popular author and serial entrepreneur joins Harry Melandri to talk about Bitcoin’s potential – noting that network effects are only making the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency stronger over time. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

KPTL Arbitrage Management is one of the few crypto hedge funds that managed to profit from Terra’s crash. Its founding partner, Jay Janer, sheds insights on his journey from TradFi trading desks at Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley. He shares his approach to navigating the world of digital assets and explains why agility is a key characteristic of successful traders, regardless of asset class. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks drifted mostly lower Thursday, as investors look to Friday’s nonfarm payroll data for signs the U.S. labor market is finally beginning to break. New applications for unemployment benefits did tick up to 219,000 from a revised 190,000 the prior week. That’s not going to move a Federal Reserve that only gets more hawkish with each stock-market rally – and that seems hell-bent on driving up unemployment as a means of bringing down inflation. “We believe central banks have finally realized that negative nominal yields have been a very big mistake,” notes Diego Parilla. Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about central banks and the policy divergences among them that could make for historic volatility. We also hear from James Davolos about how to pick stocks in a new, higher-for-longer inflationary regime. Watch the full interview featuring James Davolos and Samuel Burke here: https://rvtv.io/3CAD97E. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. dollar bounced back on Wednesday, its showing of strength once again a bane to equity markets, as interest rates also ticked higher for the first time in a few days. OPEC+’s decision to cut daily production by 2 million barrels is today’s main story, driving up crude oil prices by more than 1% and making energy the only sector moving higher in the S&P 500 today. Riding an impressive trading streak, Thomas Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to talk about markets from a tactical perspective. We also hear from Michael Nicoletos about his sense that something is going to break and where it’s likely to happen. Watch the full interview featuring Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3SIfzvA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged for a second straight day, with all three major U.S. equity indexes rising more than 2% on what seems to be rising hope the Federal Reserve will indeed pivot from its aggressively hawkish inflation-fighting stance. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, a historic move that could push crude oil back toward the $100-per-barrel mark. With the world’s most important cartel meeting in Vienna on Wednesday to decide the next phase of production policy, Maggie Lake welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about what’s happening with energy and the broader commodities space and what it means for markets and the global economy. We also hear from George Magnus about the impact of “zero Covid” on China’s economy. Watch the full interview featuring George Magnus and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3yeafro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the three major U.S. equity indexes higher on the first Monday of October, rising more than 700 points and 2.5% by midday. That’s despite the fact the Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity slipped to 50.9 in September, its lowest print since May 2020. The U.S. housing market is also slowing rapidly, with median home prices now falling as fast as they did in January 2009. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse is evoking Lehman Brothers, and U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has abandoned her new government’s tax-cut plan. Maggie Lake welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about the significance of today’s price action, and Weston Nakamura joins the conversation to discuss the ongoing policy confusion among global fiscal and monetary authorities. We want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the comments! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Raoul Pal recently participated in a Portal Asset Management webinar to talk about the current macro environment, growing global recession fears, developments in the crypto market, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Cheap valuations, realistic catalysts for earnings growth, and a relatively young, educated population have Maciej Wojtal feeling very bullish on Iran and its economy. Wojtal, the founder and chief investment officer of Amtelon Capital, joins Harry Melandri to explain his optimism about a nuclear deal and to make the investment case for Iranian stocks and the Iranian rial. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Brent Donnelly has spent most of his life in markets. He got into forex while working for top-tier banks in the U.S. He traded the dot-com bubble with his own money. And he was at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed. In this special episode of My Life in 4 Trades, Brent shares with guest host Andreas Steno Larsen his perspective on trading, including the big regrets that became some of his best lessons. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major equity indexes were mixed as of midday, a fair-to-middling session welcome relief from recent wild whipsaws. We also saw mixed inflation data: the personal consumption expenditure accelerated more than expected in August in the U.S., and eurozone prices surged a record 10% in September, though American consumers’ inflation expectations eased this month. Much of the broad market conversation is about when rather than whether something big is about to break. Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets and the author of “Alpha Trader: The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading,” joins Maggie Lake to discuss that issue and to identify ways investors and traders can navigate the price action. We also hear from Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos about the Federal Reserve’s global power. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-geopolitics/videos/when-will-the-dollar[…]uff-QpZW?source_collection=852d5cce52bd4c829fc3d84de72c55b8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

These are complicated times. Inflation is riding a 40-year high, and nobody knows when this cycle is going to end. That’s why Real Vision is slashing Essential memberships by 59% – to give you access to the brightest minds in finance. Co-Founders Raoul Pal and Damian Horner and Senior Editor Ash Bennington break down everything we’re doing at Real Vision to bring clarity for investors and traders on this week’s RV Twitter Spaces. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The British pound’s wild ride took another turn after the Bank of England intervened in the bond market on Thursday, reportedly due to potential pension-fund implosions. The pound is now down more than 20% against the U.S. dollar in 2022, last among global currencies and just ahead of the Japanese yen. “The market may bounce if it doesn't break,” tweeted Dale Pinkert, “and the bounce can continue unless there is resistance that fails to hold leading to a gap that may or may not be filled.” Pinkert, the Head of Trader Development Tradeview Markets, joins Maggie Lake to share ideas on trading currencies, precious metals, and Bitcoin amid unprecedented forex and bond market volatility. We also hear from Lawrence Lepard about why gold stocks will be the top-performing asset class over the next 10 years. Watch the full conversation between Lawrence Lepard and Samuel Burke here: https://rvtv.io/3rjc02K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’ve seen what could very well be an act of war perpetrated beneath the Baltic Sea. We’re watching the crumbling in real time of one of the world’s oldest, longest-standing economic, political, and financial pillars. And Hurricane Ian is bearing down on a densely populated coastal region extremely vulnerable to storm surge, high winds, and other attendant threats. But the three major U.S. equity indexes are ripping higher! Andreas Steno Larsen opens today’s Daily Briefing with a discussion of the U.K. and the extent to which its fiscal, monetary, and pension catastrophe could infect the rest of the world. With “sabotage” and “contagion” and “Cat 4” rising and “inflation” fading as the market’s main theme, Darius Dale joins to talk about what, if anything, today’s rally means in the bigger picture. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The word “sabotage” is in heavy rotation today, as the world wonders why natural gas is leaking from two pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. This can only make things worse, on a basic energy supply-and-demand level as well as for the more complex geopolitical landscape. The major U.S. equity indexes opened in positive territory but turned negative early in the trading day, as yields continued to rise. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about the global energy market and what these mysterious leaks portend. We also hear from Suriya Jayanti, the co-founder and managing director at decarbonization and renewables consultancy Eney LLC, about who holds the leverage in Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Suriya Jayanti here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-energy-crisis/videos/we-have-to-own-our-energy-crisis-now-qp22?source_collection=852d5cce52bd4c829fc3d84de72c55b8. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The British pound reached a record low, the People’s Bank of China stepped up its support for the yuan, the Bank of Japan defended its own intervention in defense of the yen, and every major currency in the world traded lower against the U.S. dollar today. Meanwhile, yields are spiking, particularly at the short end of the curve, and bonds are in their first bear market in 76 years. Should we be on the lookout for something big to break? Is the strong U.S. dollar going to cause a crisis for the rest of the world? Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action. We also hear from Jim Bianco about why inflation has probably peaked. Watch the full first video from our new Make or Break series featuring Jim and Raoul here: https://rvtv.io/3BPr7ph. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For the past 45 years, Rick Rule has been investing and speculating in the natural resource industry. The president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and the chair of Equinox Gold joins Harry Melandri to talk about why he’s turning his focus to uranium. In short, Rick is taking a long view on a resource that could help solve what will soon be a global energy crisis. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Denise Shull, an expert decision coach at The ReThink Group, leverages her background in neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to guide professional investors, traders, athletes, and entrepreneurs to maximum performance at times of high risk. In this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Denise joins Maggie Lake to talk about the universal lessons drawn from the eclectic and unique career of Hugh Hendry. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With global markets on the edge and investors concerned about a multitude of extant financial and potential political headwinds, Maggie Lake welcomes back Raoul Pal for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. “Are markets breaking?” sounds hyperbolic. But U.K. debt is being re-priced as if it’s issued by something less than a third-world country. And foreign-exchange markets “are presently screaming global depression, not recession,” as one prominent member of the FinTwit community put it. Maggie and Raoul talk about the global liquidity situation and how the Federal Reserve will respond to another mess of its own making. Indeed, as Raoul noted early Friday, “The central bank experiment of Volcker worship in a massively indebted economy is on its last legs in the coming month or two.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mere hours after the Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-low interest rate policy and intervened in foreign-exchange markets on behalf of the Japanese yen for the first time since 1998. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the danger this policy divergence poses to the global financial system. Could we be on the verge of a currency war in reverse? Then, Andreas welcomes Tavi Costa, a partner and a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, to talk about how to position for what Tavi recently described as “a vicious stagflationary environment.” We also hear from Nancy Davis and Kris Sidial about how to hedge downside risk amid rising volatility. Watch the full conversation featuring Nancy and Kris here: https://f.io/gHuRgo0F. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action. We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Andrew Rosener has always had an entrepreneurial spirit. As the founder and CEO of Media Options – the No. 1 media domain brokerage in the world – he’s responsible for some of the largest domain sales in history. In a captivating conversation, Andrew talks to Maggie Lake about how he’s remained at the tip of the spear in the digital asset realm. He also shares his worst trade and how he’s come to terms with a $1.9 billion loss. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it’s going to go on for some time longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes traded mixed Thursday, as investors priced in murky economic data and the reality that Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve shall not pivot from its inflation-fighting stance. “We think the CPI report was very important for the market,” said Eric Johnston, the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald. “It showed that inflation does not magically come down and you can’t get it under control with a soft landing, an unemployment rate below 4%, and the S&P 500 at 4,000.” Eric joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why equities are holding up so well with global growth increasingly impaired and financial conditions more and more restrictive. Eric and Andreas also discuss key levels for major asset classes and positioning dynamics amid the many prevailing global geopolitical-macroeconomic crosscurrents. We also hear from Jason Trennert about the structural factors that will keep inflation higher for longer. Watch the full conversation featuring Jason Trennert and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3dfUHvY. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Nasdaq Composite led equity indexes to the downside, Bitcoin followed suit in the crypto market, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note spiked in the aftermath of this morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for August. Expectations-beating 8.3% annual and 0.1% monthly readings all but guarantee the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting next week. The question is, is it time to talk about 100 basis points? And how do we position our portfolios should the Fed get even more hawkish? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and portfolio positioning in this environment. We also hear from Peter Boockvar about the impact on company earnings of higher energy and other input costs. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Peter Boockvar here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer survey showed expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5.75% in August from 6.2% in July, as investors await Tuesday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for more clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about how the Federal Reserve will interpret recent inflation data in the broader global economic context. With stocks on the rise, yields on the decline, and the inflation genie seemingly on its way back into the bottle, are things really getting better? We also hear from Mike Novogratz, who was live at the SALT Conference in New York City, about opportunities that are sure to emerge over the next three to five years amid a shifting macro landscape. We apologize for the abbreviated episode, as we were dealing with technical issues that caused it to be cut short. We’ve resolved those issues, and we hope to get Gordon Johnson back on the Daily Briefing soon to talk about the global economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Marin Katusa has made a fortune investing in natural resources. He's also arranged more than $2 billion in deal financing in the sector and written the New York Times best-seller book “The Colder War” and the Amazon.com best-seller “The Rise of America.” In this fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade, Marin explains to Harry Melandri why the rule of law in relevant jurisdictions is critical for successful natural resource investing and identifies the uranium, carbon, and gold companies in which he’s invested. ** Transparency is of utmost importance to Real Vision and as such the disclosure from today guest, Marin Katusa, includes his position as co-chair of the board of directors of Carbon Royalty Corp. He’s also one of the largest individual shareholders of Carbon Streaming Corp ($OFSTF). Marin arranged financing for and is a shareholder of Uranium Royalty Corp ($UROY). He’s a shareholder of Uranium Energy Corp ($UEC). He’s a large shareholder of Osisko Development Corp ($ODV), and his wife sits on the Osisko Development board of directors.** Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dr. Pippa Malmgren is a world-renowned economist and a former advisor to President George W. Bush. She uses her background in geopolitics to spot what's coming next, including the 2007 Global Financial Crisis, President Trump's election, and the return of inflation. On this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Pippa talks to Real Vision’s Samuel Burke about the power of storytelling and how she acts as a bridge between investors and lawmakers. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If we understand the macro through what the major equity indexes and more modern indicators such as Bitcoin and Ethereum tell us, then, at least for today, it’s all good. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, with a 2% gain heading into the last two hours of the trading week. With recent price action reflecting a “risk on” mood heading into the weekend, Michele “Mish” Schneider, the author of “Plant Your Money Tree,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about key levels for stocks, bonds, crypto and the dollar. Mish also shares critical information about hot sectors such as solar and EVs, emerging markets and trends, and the all-important commodity sector. What’s peaking right now, and what’s not? Mish and Maggie will answer that question and any others you’d like to ask – please share yours in the chat! Follow along with todays charts here: https://rvtv.io/3BuA7Br Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held competing public appearances this morning, as the ECB announced its biggest-ever interest-rate increase and the Fed doubled down on its commitment to fighting inflation. Lagarde’s message was more mixed, however, with higher borrowing costs only increasing the risk of recession in Europe. “We have calls like this for people freezing to death and a sovereign debt crisis, and I’m like, ‘I think they’re going to figure it out’,” wrote Jared Dillian in a recent issue of The Daily DirtNap. “I’m not saying there will be a good solution, only that there will be a solution.” Jared joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an assessment of Europe’s crises. Then, Andreas welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central banks, the forex market, and the rising probability of Japanese yen intervention. We also hear from Josh Young about why energy is the most compelling area of the market right now and how oil and gas stocks are phenomenally mis-priced. Watch the full conversation between Josh Young and Harris Kupperman here: https://rvtv.io/3RJIoqm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The European Central Bank is expected to announce another 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting tomorrow, even as the euro weakens against the U.S. dollar and authorities on the continent contend with an escalating energy crisis. Equity markets remain highly attuned to what central bankers say, with the major U.S. indexes bouncing on comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard. “It seems the bond market is already pricing in a positive revision to the Fed’s inflation target,” tweeteds Darius Dale. “An outcome that may become reality towards the end of this tightening cycle.” Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about competing priorities for fiscal and monetary authorities, August PMI prints, supply-chain disruptions, and disinflation and inflation expectations compared to the Fed’s “price stability” mandate. We also hear from Emil Kalinowski about why European policymakers must backstop private lending in this escalating crisis. Watch the full video featuring Emil Kalinowski and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3D9VHfA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices