Real Vision: Finance & Investing

U.S. equities are down to start the week as investors look forward to the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision on Wednesday. As we progress through earnings season, large-cap tech is under the spotlight, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon reporting this week. Maggie Lake is joined by Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital to discuss the current tech rally, whether it’s sustainable, and how long it could run. Plus, we’ll hear a clip from Real Vision’s new series, Deep Dive, where Danielle DiMartino Booth and Andreas Steno Larsen discuss a Fed divided. Watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3DpBFNK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this inaugural episode of Looking for the Upside, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mark Nelson, managing director at Radiant Energy Group, explore opportunities in nuclear power and uranium for 2023. Mark walks us through the investment case, while Andreas offers ways to play it (wait for the end). The goal is for you to walk away wanting to explore this topic further or decide it’s not for you. Enjoy. Recorded on January 6, 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

China bids adieu to zero-COVID this week after its borders reopened, and investors are flocking in to capitalize on these long-awaited trading opportunities. Andreas takes a step back to examine the Chinese economy as it currently stands and digs into how the reopening may affect prices across various asset classes. Recorded on January 10, 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

According to the latest PCE price index data out this morning, U.S. households reduced their spending in December, bolstering the argument that an economic slowdown is near. Stock markets rallied on the news, as investors assume that the Fed will begin to slow its interest rate hikes. Mish Schneider of MarketGauge.com and Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners are here to explore whether this market is paying attention to all the necessary factors. We’ll also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on the ripple effects that China’s reopening is having on commodities.You can watch the entire episode of Steno’s Signals here: https://rvtv.io/3JlzFd0 In the second part of the show, we’ll dive deep into the setup that Mish thinks is the next big trade. That part will be available only to Real Vision members. If you’re not a member yet, you can start a 7-day trial for $1 and see what you think. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. economic growth rose 2.9% in Q4 2022, down 0.3% from the prior quarter but stronger than forecasts. Markets rallied on the news, as some investors saw cooler-but-growing GDP as proof that a soft landing may be possible. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake to explore some mysterious data contradictions now popping up — and why a recession may have started many months ago. Then, Francis Gannon of Royce Investment Partners joins the show to dive into why small-caps may offer equity investors the best value in this market environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s been a roller coaster day for U.S. equities, as stocks plummeted after Microsoft issued weak forward guidance on its earnings call. But as of this writing, indexes have erased those early losses and the options market is now pricing in a Fed pivot after next Thursday’s Fed funds rate announcement. Imran Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his views of the macro landscape, explain what the options activity means for broader markets, and share some ways that investors can take action. Plus, we’ll hear from Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, on why he’s so confident the U.S. won’t enter a recession in 2023. You can watch the entire interview with Marko and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/antidavos Sign up for the Real Vision Academy for access to Imran’s course on options here: https://t.co/wRrZtPLopn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equities were flat today as investors weigh dual uncertainties: earnings season and a potential recession. Meanwhile, energy and interest rates both closed in the red, and business conditions contracted in January for the fourth month in a row, according to the latest S&P survey. Andreas Steno Larsen sits down with Eric Johnston of Cantor Fitzgerald to discuss the latest price action and hear why he believes there’s “very little upside” for stocks in the near-term. Plus, we’ll hear from veteran economist and strategist David Rosenberg, on why a rapid collapse in inflation could lead to a drawn-out recession. You can watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3DaMUt6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. stock market rallied to start the week, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way after a slew of job cuts from major tech companies entering earnings season. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 made new monthly highs and broke above key moving averages. Mike Coolbaugh, the founder of Element Macro Research LLC and a Real Vision analyst, joins Maggie Lake to discuss today’s price action and what macro data he’s watching we move into February. Then, technical trading legend Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group joins the conversation to read the charts and share how he’s identifying tradeable trends. We’ll also hear Jared Dillian’s take on gold from last Friday’s extended Daily Briefing. You can watch that entire interview right here: https://rvtv.io/3GZtF6O Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors. Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, for a conversation about the convergence of deglobalization, inflation, and quantitative tightening and the emergence of emerging markets as we transition to a multipolar geopolitical-macroeconomic regime. Follow Whitney on Twitter @TotemMacro. Recorded on November 23, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the inaugural episode of Steno's Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might not be a broad-based sign to buy equities—especially in the energy sector—and tells us how he’s setting up to trade it. Recorded on January 3rd, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks rallied back on Friday but are still down on the week as another large round of job cuts hits the technology sector. In today’s extended version of the Daily Briefing, Jared Dillian joins Maggie Lake to discuss this week’s price action, overall market sentiment, and when he sees a true Fed pivot coming into play. In the second part of this extended show, we’ll dive deep into what Jared is specifically trading, how he’s positioning, and how to protect yourself in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks extended yesterday’s slide after lower-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims this morning suggested a still-resilient labor market. Meanwhile, December housing starts slowed less than forecasted, tech layoffs continue, and earnings reports suggest that the Fed’s rate hikes are beginning to manifest a recession. Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to make sense of the market action and share how he’s positioning his portfolio as earnings season picks up. Plus, we’ll hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on why the U.S. breaching its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could impact equity investors. You can watch Andreas’ new series, Steno’s Signals, right here: https://rvtv.io/3QUIoof Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equities gave back this week’s gains as investors try to parse producer-side deflation, the probability of recession, and the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave its yield curve control policy unchanged. The BoJ on Wednesday maintained its ultra-low interest rates, which sent the yen lower and led to interesting action in Japanese government bonds. Global markets contributor Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what this BoJ news means from various asset classes, how the action is trickling into U.S. markets, and key takeaways from this morning’s PPI release. Plus, we’ll hear from Ruchir Sharma, founder and CIO of Breakout Capital, on why he is a little confused about where Japan sits in his EM portfolio. You can check out that entire interview right here: https://rvtv.io/3ZJ8YEX Check out Weston’s Twitter Spaces on the BOJ Here: twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equities began the week choppy as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both reported steep profit losses in Q4 2022. Banks see a recession coming, but does the rest of the market agree? Ash Bennington sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator, to hear what moves he’s watching in energy and commodities and how he feels about the broader rally in stocks. We’ll also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on why he prefers precious metals over energy right now. You can watch Andreas’ new series, Steno’s Signals, right here: https://rvtv.io/3iuIO8j. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What’s the trajectory of inflation in 2023? How about the likelihood of a severe recession? There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we look past the holidays, but Joseph Wang, Andy Constan, and James Helliwell have some thoughts on what’s to come. Don’t miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are investors prepared to weather the storm that’s brewing for global markets? Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Felix Zulauf and Cullen Roche share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and why patience will be key for anyone trying to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Earnings season for Q4 2022 kicked off today with both Bank of America and JPMorgan warning of a “mild recession” coming later this year. That’s a long way from the early-2023 crash that many analysts predicted not long ago. So, what changed? Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a special two-part edition of the Daily Briefing. Raoul and Andreas will discuss the evolving global macro landscape and the market’s response to new inflation data. In the second part of the show, we’ll dive deep into Raoul’s 2023 outlook and how he’s positioning himself. That part will be available only to Real Vision members, and you’re not going to want to miss it. If you’re not yet a member, you can start a 7-day trial for $1 and see what you think. Sign up here: https://www.realvision.com/discount10 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The pace of U.S. inflation slowed again in December as overall consumer prices fell by 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest CPI report. Stocks ticked higher as a result, and the market is now pricing in a 25-basis point interest rate hike from the Fed next month. On today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, to hear why he believes the market is getting ahead of itself with this latest rally and why the Fed has lost credibility. We’ll also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on why he prefers precious metals over energy as China reopens. You can check out Andreas’ new series, Steno’s Signals, right here: https://rvtv.io/3iuIO8j Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are inching higher as we await tomorrow’s December CPI release, with tech leading the way as the Nasdaq Composite puts in a fourth straight green day. China-related equities and commodities are also rallying on optimism about China’s reopening. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to discuss the state of markets, what China’s reopening means for the global economy, and preview tomorrow’s inflation data. You’ll also get a sneak peek at our newest series, Looking For the Upside, where we focus on a new investment theme and examine why right now may be the time to invest. Check out the new series here: https://rvtv.io/nuclearupside Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today’s show, Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the latest developments in markets and the state of global macro conditions with an eye toward commodities. Shawn’s a commodities expert, and he’ll talk to the to the flooding in California, other erratic weather and upcoming patterns to explain what they mean for everything from agricultural products to energy to the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The stock market continued to rally on Monday, pushing higher from Friday’s big gains with the technology sector leading the way. At the time of this writing, the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.67%. On today’s show, Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap newsletter, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the overall market sentiment, why he’s monitoring Tesla ($TSLA), and how he’s positioning his portfolio for the months ahead. We also hear from Howard Lindzon, general partner at venture capital firm Social Leverage, who explains why he’s worried about growth in 2023. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3k2caLi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we enter a new year, but don’t blink --- you might just miss the move that makes 2023. Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Milton Berg and Mish Schneider share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and what sectors and assets they believe are ripe for profits in 2023. Don’t miss this discussion of how to navigate markets in the year ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Mike Coolbaugh, Diego Parrilla, and David Higgins share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and why volatility is hardly a bad thing for prepared investors. Are you ready to ride the new wave? Don’t miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Nonfarm payrolls coming in above estimates, and wage growth softer than expected, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said today that “the Fed needs to stay the course” with regards to raising interest rates in 2023. U.S. equities rallied on the news — essentially calling the Fed’s bluff as the market prices in a pause in the coming months and rate cuts in the latter half of the year. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakly Advisory Group, to sift through the market’s response to mixed economic data and hear why Peter believes that the Fed is almost done hiking rates. As he wrote in the latest edition of The Boock Report, Peter believes that the market won’t find a bottom “until everyone throws in the investing towel not wanting to ever own a stock again.” He’ll share where he believes we’re at in that process, and where he’s looking for opportunities along the way. Plus, we’ll also see a clip from our new series, Steno’s Signals, with Andreas Steno Larsen, on what falling inflation means for equities and energy. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3GqqeWL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Officials agreed that rate cuts shouldn’t happen in 2023. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market’s response to this news, his view of inflation, and what it all means for global assets as we navigate the year ahead. Plus, we hear from Mish Schnieder of MarketGauge.com who gives us her opinion of where inflation will head in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, natural gas prices are falling off a cliff. At the time of this writing, natural gas futures are down 11.8%. Oil is down meaningfully as well. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks gave up early morning gains, with Apple and Tesla leading to the downside. On today’s show, Tony and Andreas will discuss the macro dynamics that are driving this sell-off in energy and share how they’re playing the sector in the new year. Plus, they’ll discuss why Elon Musk has become a problem for the typical Tesla investor and take a look at what else you should keep an eye on in the months ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There’s no going back to 2019, according to Jim Bianco, and the sooner we accept reality the better we’ll be able to see new opportunities. The post-pandemic global economy is fundamentally different, and the “easy money” era is over. In the final episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Raoul Pal welcomes the founder of Bianco Research for a talk about inflation and the longer-term implications of soaring consumer prices. Raoul and Jim agree on many issues – that the U.S. is already in recession, for one. But they also disagree on other big points, such as inflation. As Jim sees it, the Federal Reserve is going to crush inflation, but consumer prices are still going to settle at a higher level. This is a can’t-miss conversation between two great macro minds on a critical “Make or Break” issue. Recorded on Wednesday September 21, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1970s analogue is the wrong one to look at and that the postwar decades, the 1940s and the 1950s, provide a better framework. At the same time, he foresees a move toward a "tangible economy" and away from the "intangible economy" of the 2010s. In the fourth installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Dario and Raoul talk about ramifications of this transition for inflation, growth, and interest rates. Recorded on May 12th, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“Regionalization” is the transition from a world of stable prices and consistent growth to one of rising costs of living where the threat of global famine is real. The breakdown of an economic order framed by just-in-time supply chains requires a rethink of trade networks and relationships. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan addresses these issues and more in his new book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” In the third episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Zeihan joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about implications of this transition, including the end of China’s time as a great power but the perpetuation of the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Recorded on May 31, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The transition to clean energy is an extremely important and noble cause but achieving future net-zero targets “will be very, very difficult.” That’s the message from Wil VanLoh, the Founder and CEO of Quantum Energy Partners, a private equity firm that’s been building energy companies for nearly a quarter century. Wil also happens to be a long-time friend of Kyle’s, and in the second installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, the pair discuss the urgency needed to address major problems in the global energy market and the necessity of the clean energy transition. As Wil puts it, “This is an issue of humanity, and if we don’t get it right, the consequences are dire.” Recorded on May 30, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Emad Mostaque is democratizing artificial intelligence. The hedge fund manager turned entrepreneur is the founder of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion, an image-generating algorithm that creates new, never-before-seen pictures. It’s the most advanced technology in AI, and Emad is bringing it to the masses. In the first episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Emad shows Raoul how quickly AI is progressing, what that progress means for our future, and why he chose to make Stable Diffusion open source. This type of technology should be available to everyone in the world, Emad believes, not just corporate tech giants. His vision is AI of, by, and for the people – and with that comes great opportunity. Recorded on Wednesday October 12, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equities took another tumble on Thursday as the worst December for stocks since 2018 continues. Meanwhile, Asia markets rallied on some upbeat earnings and a strengthened yen. On today’s show, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, Jared Dillian, joins Maggie Lake to share how he’s deciphering the latest price action as we look ahead to the new year. Plus, we’ll hear from Weston Nakamura on why the Bank of Japan decided to tweak its yield curve control policy with only two meetings left in Governor Kuroda’s term. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3WCb335 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The yen slipped slightly today after surging almost 4% on Tuesday, after the Bank of Japan surprisingly tweaked its yield curve control policy. U.S. equities are up for the second straight day, providing a glimmer of hope for a better-than-expected earnings season. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by the founder of 42 Macro, Darius Dale, to discuss where we are in the global liquidity cycle and what that means for his 2023 outlook. Andreas and Darius are fielding audience questions, so be sure to get yours in. Plus, we’ll hear from Weston Nakamura on what everyone is missing in the BoJ’s hawkish turn. You can watch the entire breakdown here: https://rvtv.io/3YzHGAp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bank of Japan’s surprise move to change its policy and allow the 10-year JGB yield to move 50 basis points on either side of its 0% target, caught global markets off guard. In this deep dive, Weston Nakamura tells us what we’re all missing in the central bank’s slightly more hawkish tone. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. stocks fell to start the week, with the Nasdaq leading to the downside. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen 5.6% so far this month. So, how much more room is there below? Let’s see what the charts have to say. On today’s show, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie Lake to share her short- and long-term outlook for the markets and review the technical risks facing investors as we head into the new year. Plus, we’ll hear from Felix Zulauf about why he sees a more brutal wave of inflation coming in 2023 and beyond, and Peter Brandt on why he’s bullish on gold in the new year. Watch the Felix Zulauf interview here: https://rvtv.io/3BFy1hI. Watch Peter Brants’ interview here: https://rvtv.io/3uNHSyb. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Peter Brandt is the CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm he founded in 1980 that trades proprietary capital, forex, futures, fixed income, and equity markets. Brandt is widely recognized as one of the finest classical chartists in the world, and now he joins MI2 Partners’ Harry Melandri to break down why all signs are pointing to a major move in gold in 2023. Brandt also shares why he’s interested in Bitcoin and breaks down several eye-popping charts throughout the episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You’ve never gone as deep with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal as you will in this special two-part episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Raoul talks to Maggie Lake about everything from his childhood in the U.K. to his early days in finance – and, of course, the most impressive trades of his career and what he learned from them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Markets sold off again today to close the week, down drastically from Tuesday morning’s post-CPI highs. The reversal comes as central bankers in the U.S. and abroad continued to hike interest rates despite mounting evidence of a looming recession. On today’s show, Warren Pies, the co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what 2023 will bring, what’s driving the action in energy markets, and why he believes it’s obvious that we’ve moved past peak inflation. According to Warren, we could be de due for a sharp disinflation trend that will bring opportunities. “The future belongs to the optimists, but, for now, the pessimists are in control,” Warren wrote in his 2023 outlook report. We’ll also hear from Felix Zulauf, the CEO of Zulauf Consulting, on the major geopolitical and economic volatility that lies ahead. Watch that entire Interview here: https://rvtv.io/3BFy1hI. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Description The European Central Bank and Bank of England followed the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates another 50 basis points this morning. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% and two regional measures of U.S. manufacturing activity slipped, as consumers and producers alike feel the brunt of a contracting economy. Stocks are considerably lower on the day, with the NASDAQ down 3.75% as of this writing. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss what’s driving the latest selloff and how he’s positioning for 2023. Plus, we’ll hear from Dr. Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, on the difference between buying energy and buying stock of energy companies. Watch the entire Interview here: https://rvtv.io/3huD0ec. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points today. It was a seventh consecutive rate hike from the Fed, four straight three-quarter point hikes. Markets moved lower in response to the expected lower increase, as forecasts now show a higher terminal interest rate later in 2023. Meanwhile, the U.K. inflation rate eased from a 41-year high in November. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale of 42 Macro joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what the Fed’s hike --- and the potential of deflation setting in --- means for asset classes in 2023. We’ll also be joined by Real Vision macro expert James Helliwell to discuss today’s U.K. Inflation data and what it means for the Bank of England’s rate hike decision tomorrow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged this morning after cooler-than-expected inflation data showed that consumer prices in November rose at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% from the prior month and 7.1% year-over-year, down sharply from 7.7% YoY in October. But by noon ET, stocks erased all gains and now appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision. Is deflation starting to do some work for the Federal Reserve? Or will Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Co. keep hiking interest rates into a recession? On today’s Daily Briefing, Ash Bennington is joined by Real Vision senior markets editor Andreas Steno Larsen and Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator to discuss what various asset classes are signaling about inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Bilal Hafeez, the CEO of MacroHive, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on the upcoming Fed decision and what ripple effects it could have on the global economy. The market is pricing in a drop in inflation ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, but will that signal a green light for investors? Plus, we’ll also hear from expert Fed watcher Joseph Wang on why a recession won’t be as bad as many people think, and why inflation should be our main concern. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FmKPL9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, above market forecasts of 0.2%. In today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets’ president Brent Donnelly to help us understand the latest inflation data and what it means for next week’s Federal funds rate announcement. Plus, Brent will share some insights on trader positioning from his firm’s 2023 Q1 consensus survey. Shocker… everybody’s bearish. We also hear from Former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark on why we are looking at macro all wrong. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FELx7C Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. jobless claims this morning rose to their highest level since February. Meanwhile, China’s outbound shipments plunged 8.7% year-over-year and Hong Kong stocks rose 3% as the financial hub considers easing up on covid lockdowns. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Taimur Baig, the Chief Economist of Singapore-based bank DBS, to discuss the mixed economic data from around the world, and hear why Taimur believes the global economy could be setting up for a promising recovery. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Price action continues to reflect investors’ collective ambivalence about what comes next, with Wall Street warning of grim prospects for both stocks and growth in 2023. As Jason De Sena Trennert sees it, the “greatest risk to the economy and markets may be the Fed’s need to tighten more than risk markets anticipate.” That crude oil is probing near-term lows even as China eases some “COVID zero” restrictions is just one point of confusion. Trennert, the founder and CEO of Strategas Securities, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what crude oil and other key markets are telling us right now, how inflation will become “sticky,” and why the Federal Reserve will have to go higher for longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. equity sell-off extended to a fourth straight trading session today, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite again led to the downside with a 2.18% loss two hours ahead of the close. Meta Platforms is under regulatory scrutiny in the European Union, Apple is contending with supply-chain restructuring, and Tesla faces stiffening competition amid its CEO’s social media dabbling. And job cuts across the broad tech sector suggest we may be witnessing the end of an era. Maggie Lake welcomes Eric Jackson, the founder of EMJ Capital, to talk about what’s happening with big tech – and to distinguish it from growth tech. We also hear from Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, about the challenges of building more robust supply chains. Watch the full conversation between Whitney Baker and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/perform. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of services activity rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, surprising to the upside and stirring fresh worry the Federal Reserve will continue to err on the hawkish side when it comes to monetary policy. The major U.S. equity indexes all sagged more than 1%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shedding 2.13% two hours ahead of the close. Crude oil climbed, however, as a G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian production kicked in and China inched closer to re-opening its economy. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the global crude oil market, the shift back to “services” from “goods” as the pandemic recedes into memory, and the durability of demand. Later, Maggie welcomes Jeff Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, to talk about emerging opportunities in small-cap technology names. We also hear from Diego Parilla about a new paradigm based on higher inflation, permanent volatility, and elevated risk. Keep an eye out for the full conversation between Maggie Lake and Diego Parilla, to be released tomorrow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices