QAV Investing Podcast (Free Edition)

War driving demand for precious metals; how to gross up the sell price of a stock going ex-dividend; tech pipe dreams; new consensus target date filter; Denis contributions; MML revenue drop and bad news; rebuying a stock you’ve just sold; using EMA and SMA or "price change 1 month" to calculate a Josephine; is performance better over reporting season?

Markets and War; bank rate increase; MWY bad results; Construction collapse; Berkshire’s annual letter; GRR results; Portfolio average hold time; outdated consensus valuations; is five year relative strength important; calculating CAGR in Excel; red flag if DPR of greater than 100%.

This week we’re talking about Navexa portfolio issues, overconfidence in investors, Murph resigns from Berkshire, Berkshire invests in a crypto bank, Munger’s recent Q&A, BFG’s money laundering problems, HUM’s acquisition by LFS, CGF back on the buy list, S32 is Tony’s pulled pork, Ares buying into GMA, FMG is a Josephine, and then we answer your questions about Grantham’s bubble warnings, using trend lines to know when to cancel a Josephine, the iron ore sell price, buying stocks close to the sell line, using company market cap figure relative to Index Funds to determine whether a company's share price could be at risk of a near future increase or decrease, kissing a few frogs to get a prince, holding on just for the takeover premium and FEX's very low sell line.

Copper is a buy again, why VUK’s audit it NOT qualified, ASX CEO resigns, the impact of petrol prices, portfolio update, SGR has a qualified audit, NUF is the pulled pork, how to work with a stock you inherit, why we have no cut-off for low Quality scores, Tony’s average holding period, Andrew’s sliding Rule 1.

As we’re joined by special guest Taylor Reilly, we talk about flatulent labels, redefining how a stock comes out of being a Josephine, our portfolio performance for the FY, a pulled pork on CCP, Greenblatt and LEAPS, when to sell after a 3PTL breach, should MAM be on the list, what to do with stocks we get from a demerger, what to do with MXI, more about property v shares, and and whether or not we need to check for a qualified audit if it’s an ASX200/300 company.

Jam packed show this week! Losing money is one thing, losing your nerve is everything ; Iron ore hits $150/ton; CCP results are out, Stock price up 7% over last 2 days; ASX200 down 6.3% for January; How to calculate the Gold price; Stock of the week WLD; hostile takeover of IMA; investing during reporting season; the Fed put; re-buying recent sells; fudging 3PTL sells; Josephine charts; “A” grade companies aren’t “A” grade stocks; concentrating portfolio when there’s nothing to buy; using LEAPs; trading halts; Copper companies churning out cash; 3PTLs for WAF; BHP’s demerger; Rule no.1, should it be applied to a holding as a whole (average price) or to individual parcels?

Talking about the current market volatility, and whether or not we should wait it out and go to cash; we discuss recent articles talking about “investing” in tech stocks and crypto; deep dive on RIO; explain how the Bank Bill Swap Rate works; whether or not new investors should wait until the end of reporting season; getting back to the 'Buy Follows Sell' rule and how it applies to CBA; possible reasons why KRM has gone up and MQG has gone down; and the challenges in placing orders at market value.

On this episode we talk about MYR becoming a sell; Tony’s problems with Howard Marks’ latest memo; the new AF sheet; and our stocks of the week, including Tony’s pulled pork on BPT. In the club episode we answer questions about using West Texas v Brent Crude, using Martin Roth’s Top Stock book, paying attention to announcements during confession season, and what impact interest rate rises might have on QAV in the coming months.

Indonesia temporarily bans coal exports; GWR up 80% in 3 weeks; ANZ pulled pork; NTD SPP and Tony’s thoughts on SPPs in general; CBA worth a punt; iron stock update; How often to update sell alerts.

In our first episode for 2022, we’re talking about my confusion over some recent 3PTL rule changes, platinum being a buy again, what a “cleansing prospectus” is, Gary’s stellar results, some changes to the buy list, a pulled pork on CIA, CAA and aluminium, Nufarm’s cash flow, how to treat companies we’ve sold using R1, why we use operating cash flow instead of free cash flow, and whether or not CDD is a sell.

It's time for our last show of the year and my annual tradition of trying to pick some highlights from the last 12 months. This year I'm mostly focusing on the journey we went through with iron ore. Back in January 2021 we were talking about FMG and the stellar run it had been on, and why we weren't going to rush into selling it, particularly when it had a very low sell line. But as the year progress, Tony started to talk more and more about watching the iron ore commodity price which, even though the CEO of FMG assured us would stay strong for a long time, started to slide in the second half of the year, prompting Tony to make some painful decisions....

In this episode we’re talking about MYR and LAU warnings, replacing GAP with GWR, CAA upgrade to guidance, Trading View commodity alerts, our stocks of the week (FEX, GMA), our best portfolio stocks for the week, the world’s second tallest building is a warning sign, and CGF’s business model. In the Club edition, we also talk about selling and buying back into FMG instead of just holding it, MFG’s collapse and what their management might be thinking about right now, and more details on the story about Tony’s 20x return on MND back in the day.

We chat with Luke “The Gibbonator” Gibson about his QAV-based YouTube channel “The Gibson Hustle”, about copper becoming a sell, iron ore becoming a buy, whether or not BHP is an iron ore or a copper company, Nufarm chemicals, and Magellan’s woes. In the club edition, we also talk about platinum becoming a buy again, AJL’s qualified audit, our stocks of the week (GRR, GWR), if we should sell any stock that drops below 10% at any time, ATL’s merger news (ugh), how to trade during bull, bear and roo markets, BSL and iron ore, value price vs fair price, and CDD’s capital return. Then in after hours, it’s a lot of Beatles talk again!

This episode is mostly a recap of lessons learned, highlights and lowlights of 2021. We talk about our portfolio performances (eg the QAV portfolio, and our own personal portfolios) in this difficult calendar year, Tony talks about how there seems to be a crisis every three years, and we answer a couple of questions about calculated sentiment and staying fully invested during downturns.

This week we talk about the market’s reaction to Omicron, the new AF worksheet, builders collapsing, Howard Mark’s latest memo, new sells, our top stocks of last week, our stocks picks for this week and whether or not we should go to cash in the current market and wait for things to improve. In the club edition, we also talk about why we’re not buying into ETFs and LICs, what TK thinks about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list, and if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time, regardless of buy price. And, of course, The Beatles.

This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL. In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.

This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL. In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.

This week we’re talking about our top three stocks from last week (PRU, BFG, CVL), SHJ (the quiet sleeper), why you shouldn’t innovate until you’re a QAV black belt, why we should NOT filter Price-to-Operating Cash Flow < 7 (whoops), and why Rule #1 is important. In the Club edition, we talk about the stocks of the week (WGX, ABA), the failed GCY acquisition (by WGX), the mistakes Tony heard on another investing podcast, whether or not directors taking large positions in their own company deserves extra credit, the weird CBA sell line, MAD’s weird share capital numbers, IHVV’s returns, the MQG SPP, Tony’s experience with LIC returns, and how much real estate is enough.

This week we’re congratulating Brett and Rowan on their performance, talking about KPT turning into KIL, ZGL’s sudden collapse, new ANZ numbers, the iron ore chart fudge, our top three performing stocks from last week, Tony’s stock tips of the week (IMA and AMI), whether we should hold for a minimum of 12 weeks, GCY’s PE history, what Level 5 of QAV might look like, explaining the flat bottom rule again, ‘massaging’ the process, new bank rate, and behavioural shifts for becoming better investors.

This week we feature an interview with Louise Bedford, aka Candlestick Queen, author and Founder of Talking Trading. We chat with Louise about why there aren’t more women in investing, how to use candlesticks, and what it takes to be a long-term successful investor. In our club edition, we also talk about the three top performing stocks in our portfolio last week, talk more about market open prices and after hour trades, EWC’s qualified audit, the pulled pork is ECX, AIS and mine life, why Navexa reports we didn’t sell some old stocks quickly enough, AZJ’s sell line and acquisition news, Tony’s current views on AMP, and how much of Tony's portfolio was sold off during the COVID cough.

We talk about AIS starting to get coverage, the COG chart (again), our stock tip performance, our portfolio update, Charlie Munger speaking at Sohn Hearts &#038; Minds, the SXL chart, the ASX200 average Price:CashFlow, lumber is a 3PTL buy, changes to the checklist, copper is a buy again, and SFR is our Stock Of The Week. In the Club episode: platinum is a buy again, Tony sold HLS and bought NAB, WGX is back on the list, IKW is off the list, precious metals forecasting, regression testing on Tony’s portfolio, finding a sell line for stock that don't have 5 years of price history, the process of price setting on the ASX prior to the opening time, and how Stock Doctor calculate their sell prices.

This week we talk about hydrogen futures, the MOZ graph, our portfolio performance, selling MTO, our stock tip performance, Tony’s new idea to replace the 3PTL, GCY back on the buy list, CTP, IDZ’s qualified audit, mixed commodity miners, MMS, CLX, EHL. In the Club edition, we discuss the ethics of buying coal stocks, using a 25 day moving average, the timing for 3PTL sells, Tony's thoughts on Elliot Wave theory, Tony's view on letting emotions impact an investing decisions and a review of ATL's price, and Tony's take on how inflation might affect QAV theory.

This week we introduce the “Gladys” graph and the “Napoleon” line. We talk about our stocks of the week (NHC, CVW), the doom and gloom in the global markets and how to use QAV to stay sane, the MYR collapse, how to calculate the sell line for SDG post-dividend, and the charts for AMI, BSE. In the Club Edition, we also talk about when to buy back into iron ore stocks like FMG, STO sentiment and oil prices, our 4E submission to the ASA, why RIC is a “get in quick” stock, why BXB and ANN dropped quickly, investment structures if you’re living off the dividends (like TK is now), and whether Tony would consider investing in something like BBUS or BBOZ. All that and after hours!

This week we chat about MYR (Tony’s pulled pork), MHJ (our small cap stock of the week), live cattle futures, FMG as a challenger buy, ATL’s price increase, MWY back on the list, selling off the banks, using Sparklines and Excel’s STOCKHISTORY, discounting one-off cashflow events, getting back in to commodity sells, investing in businesses with mostly intangible assets, how to tell if Stockdoctor has the latest figures, handling tax time, and measuring Tony’s results by after-tax returns. And our guest this week is Brett Fischer, the investor of the Brettalator!

We chat with James Williamson, value investor, and Founder, Executive Director &#038; Chief Investment Officer at Wentworth Williamson Management. We also talk about Brett’s new 3PTL tool, Gary’s terrific QAV-based paper returns on Strawman, MYE fatality and price drop, ZGL price update, FMG - huge drop, execs leaving in droves, CVW financials in SD, handling some tricky flatline graphs, Corporate Tax hike going to the senate in the US, S32 is a zinc miner, ATL and Camplify, MYR is profitable again, but numbers aren’t in SD yet, MWY removed because of lumber graph, SRG breached it’s Sell line, MIN - iron ore sell, why BLX fell nearly 7%, why CDM went down, why EHL and ABA aren’t on the scorecard, SMSFs and Trust Deeds, why TK bought NAB, why WAF is dropping, the sell line for ZIM, Copper price heading in the right direction, and After Hours!

This week on QAV we talk about Bloody Thursday, James’ great QAV results, how Navexa calculates portfolio returns, Buffett’s global market indicator, CVW hiring investment bankers, CCV’s new QAV score, audit reports still coming out, ATL’s audit, lobbying ASIC about 4E statements, Josephines being due to dividend drops, Munger’s “always invert” lesson, Tony’s pulled pork is AIS, James asks about modifying the QAV process for commodities, Steve asks about WMC’s audit, Dave asks about running multiple portfolios, Edward asks about inflation, and Mark asks about how Tony picks large cap stocks. Plus After Hours!

Tony reports on his recent analysis on companies that go from a negative cashflow to a positive cashflow; Tony has been trying to find a place where a qualified audit is recorded that makes them easier to find than having to scroll through the annual report; GLE’s results are out and their shares are up; Speaking of scorecards, we’re publishing our first official scorecard since getting our AFSL this week! ; Our portfolio just passed the two year anniversary and is looking good; Tony’s pulled pork this week is CVW, Clearview Wealth; and we talk about ASG, MXI, VRS, commodity stocks, VUK, HUM, CKF and CAR.

This week we have some big news, talk about some minor errors we’ve fixed in the checklist and bible, then Tony does a pulled pork on COG, we explain ASX’s cash flow anomaly from last week, Tony talk about some recent regression testing he has done on selling when the QAV score hits 0.5 and on using ROE in our checklist, Shell scenario planning frameworks, whether or not we should discount sentiment for companies with a small float, which part of the cycle Tony thinks the market is in and whether or not it matters, MYE’s falling QAV score, the sell line for CDD, the buy line for CAA, and how Tony treats REITs.

This week we pull the pork on EHL, and talk about JBH, QBE, copper, AMP, Warren Buffett’s goat, URW, SWM, HUM, RMS, BHP, ASX, BFG, MIL, ASB, MHJ, we chat with young investor Lachie Duncan, and answer a bunch of your questions.

On this episode we talk about finding ASX300 stocks, CGF is the pulled pork, range trading, buying and selling during reporting season, Rule #2, calculating portfolio returns for volatile portfolios, natural gas, palladium, nickel and aluminium stocks, taking quality of management into consideration, the CBA off market buy back, the MXI 5:1 consolidation, sell lines for stocks going ex-dividend and our TV, movie and music recommendations!

Today Tony is talking a lot about commodity prices and what their decline means for our portfolio. Iron ore, gold, copper and platinum are all in decline. We also talk about the “Dogs of QAV” model, SKT, RIO, CBA, DSK, Superhero's performance issues, and explain what a “Josephine” is.

This week we talk about why MML crashed after it announced its quarterly results. How Tony uses “Rule #1” to avoid losing money. Lots of interesting things going on with oil at the moment. How mergers and acquisitions can be a signal of late market cycle behaviour. Why FMG’s huge dividend payout is a signal of things changing with the company. RIO’s results in Stock Doctor. How Tony updates his scorecard in the early stages of reporting season. His pulled pork this week is CCV. How to calculate the performance of a portfolio with a lot of capital in and out flows. And the idea of adding ROE>20% as an item to the checklist.

This week we talk about MIL’s “Emphasis of Matter”, MXI’s trading halt, MTO’s sell line, MML’s sell line, ABA’s buy line, WWG’s QAV score, investing in QAV to build up a deposit for a property, Tony’s pulled pork is HZN, CBA’s sell line, MQG’s sell line, the oil price’s sell line, ANZ’s sell line, tailwinds, using EV/EBITDA, XRO’s sell line, how Tony defines an uptick, and our guest today (club edition only) is Alison Harrington, Brisbane Convenor and Education Officer Qld for the Australian Shareholders' Association, who talks about women in investing.

Amendments to the 3PTL wording in the bible; how to calculate performance of a volatile portfolio; creating wealth by gearing a property; updating your 3PTL alerts; the pulled pork on SUN; sell lines for banks and other stocks with high QAV scores; KRM is stopping gold production, what does that mean for investors; C6C has dropped, when do we sell?

Another long episode (1.5 hours)! We talk about our performance vs the top funds; Buffett’s ABCs; Why TK bought gold miners over retailers last week; the idea of a “second peak”; HUM’s exposure to Forum Finance; the performance of the 2017 Dogs; a deep dive on MML and MIL; how Rule #1 works; how TK would invest if he was 25 again; whether or not I should sell MYR; copper physical vs futures; and how to spot “bad news” during reporting.

This week we discuss our EOFY result (48%); decide to sell VUK again; MYR and Solly Lew; SOTW is GRR; the Sell price for BCN; contrarian investor Michael O’Higgins’s ‘Dogs of the Dow’ strategy; Duncan and The Mystery of The Reducing Scores; the Copper and Coal commodity prices; the chart for SUL; how to understand IMA’s market depth report; Magellan’s intention to transition its High Conviction Trust listed investment company into an active exchange-traded fund; would apply 3PTL to a chart given the effect of a consolidation like for COG; and the sell lines for banks.

A massive two hour episode (for club members) this week! We talk about Gary’s Strawman results, a final portfolio update for the FY, Tony’s SOTW (BCN), Dylan the Intern’s latest modelling on flatlines, the chart for MIL, why we sold ATL, lots of questions about using Simple Moving Averages, thoughts on DSK, why Buffett still owns Coke, and then we finish with an interview with club member James Oliver who is an auditor with a major accounting firm, and talks us through what we should be watching for when it comes to qualified audits.

With the ASX in free fall, we talked about ATL’s sell line, selling VUK, some new stocks to hit my scorecard, including CLX, NGE, VTG and SHJ, Tony’s SOTW (KSC), comparing using MACD as a charting tool to the 3PTL, more thinking about how to use the new flatline rule, how to use indicators to pick a conservative stop loss, routines for maintaining a portfolio, and the Woolworths demerger.

We debate the 3PTLs for ATL and AGD, talk about the recent jumps in price for AIS and CGS, the ANZ price, the lag in dividend payments, the results of Tony’s recent analysis of the performance of dividend stocks in the QAV portfolio, why fudge is science, the poultry price on indexmundi, how to manually replace the SD financial health rating, some formula changes to the the TK Master Spreadsheet, and whether or not the GCY announcement of higher costs is a big enough red flag to make Tony want to sell.

We chat with James Holt, Director, Investment Solutions at Perpetual, then get into news and Q&#038;A. This week Tony answers your questions about how companies set their share price for a float, the application of Rule #1 vs. waiting for the sell line, shares that don’t seem to register any trade movements, how to build a QAV portfolio more weighted to dividend paying stocks, whether or not to eliminate existing holdings in ETFs from a QAV portfolio, and whether Tony has ever looked at a chart and thought I'm not buying that even though the numbers are good.

This week we’re talking about why we sold MRC and bought ATL; FMG is down and Tony’s current thinking about commodity 3PTLs; why we’re taking ETFs and LICs out of QAV; late stage market behaviour; SOTW; why we allow stocks in the scorecard with a quality score below 75%; why HUM is on the scorecard; if Myer is a Schrodinger; Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the stage of the market and how it applies to QAV; if it’s too late to buy into AIS; and why the score for “PE<Yield” should be a blank if the PE is blank.

In the first half of this episode we're joined by Navarre Trousselot &#038; Thom Benny from Navexa, an online portfolio platform, who tell us a bit about the vision for their product and what they've seen investors doing lately. Then we talk about minimising brokerage fees, building a portfolio with lump sums, the 3PTL on VDGR, Tony's latest thinking about commodity sell lines, how to deal with stocks that cross their sell line but are also at the top of the scorecard, and what's going on with iron ore producers.

We talk about the bank results; tech wreck; Buffett breaking the NASDAQ; Increasing Net Equity v NEPS; re-naming the “buy list”; LICS and NTA; Price to Operating Cashflow for ETFs; Tony’s performance today vs when he had a smaller portfolio; CCV’s buy line; where the Top 200 ASX stocks came from; graphic positive sentiment for see-saw stocks; the gold cycle; and ATL’s debt levels.

This week we recorded while I was staying with Tony down at Cape Schanck! We talked about the collapse of BPT, why ATL is our SOTW, the highlights of the Berkshire Hathaway 2021 AGM, the importance of price to cashflow in our checklist, Stock Doctor's coverage of A2 Milk, why companies issue new shares at a steep discount, MML's 3PTL buy line, gold miners and market cycles, why BOQ dropped off the buy list, and then I get Tony to tell the story about how he bought his Cape Schanck property 22 years ago using his winnings from winning trivia competitions on TV and radio. Finally, I passed the microphone around after our QAV Club dinner in Melbourne and asked the folks there to talk about what they have learned from the podcast.

On this episode, we talk about our portfolio performance, SOTW, Colin Nicholson’s three market stages, Jack Bogle’s fourth law of motion, if SSG is a sell, the value of private banking, the idea of using increasing equity per share, and investing in Early Stage Innovation Companies.

This week we chat with Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at 1851 Capital and then get into our regular show, where we discuss the MRC collapse, the CAA takeover bid, Geoff Wilson’s LIC strategy, our SOTW (DSK), if MYR is close to a sell, DKM dropping off the buy list, directors transactions, IV2 challenger strategy, why research firms suspend coverage on stocks, using (ATR) average true range multiples to set trailing stops, current US valuations, and whether or not TRS as a recent positive upturn.

Regression testing with Dylan the intern; “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”; SOTW: MXI; Tony’s thoughts on investing in a NASDAQ 100 ETF; should keep our AGD shares; Why did TK skip past MYR on the buy list; capital raising only to institutional investors; How AGMs fit into Tony's investment strategy; looking at a Depth of a share chart; postponing a decision to buy a share based on the AFR headlines; a checklist for reporting season; how the current buy list compares to other periods; QAV book club.

Ray Dalio on BTC. Lou Simpson’s investing philosophy. The proposed TLS break-up. Selling low dividend payers. Tolerance for older data. KRMs health score. 3PTL for ADH, HLA &#038; HVN. Tony's view on the Iron trend line. Replacing IV1 and IV2 with PE ratios.

This week: MRC firing their CEO and the price dropped 25% - why didn't we sell?; Lincoln fund results; ASA webinar by James Holt; WAAAX performance 20/21; CVL down 13% since we bought it; MAH groundhog; Flitman model is out; red flags for companies that might go into a trading halt; why share prices fall after they go ex dividend; how TK decides what to sell when he needs to take cash out of his portfolio; commodity stocks sell lines; sentiment for HAW, AGD, AIS; is GCY now a sell?