QAV Investing Podcast (Free Edition)

We run the checklist over SFR, review Tony's recent journal entries, and then answer your questions about capital gains tax, share consolidations, 3PTL lines, why TK was buying BPT, OFX's cash situation, forsaking profit by waiting for sell line breaches, leveraging your home to buy shares, how the "Manually entered scores" tab works on the checklist, and whether or not TK has seen better/worse/same returns when his allocations allowed him to buy small/micro caps. We also review the EOFY positions for our dummy portfolio and TK’s portfolio.

Today we chat with Elio D'Amato, Host of Spotee, Independent investment expert and former Executive Director at Lincoln Indicators.

On this episode we talk about Tony's recent journal entries regarding ADH, WSA and SFR, then we answer your questions about why we might invest in companies with poor financial health scores on Stock Doctor; why Tony isn't a "range trader"; how Tony would start a new fund with only $10K; whether or not we should wait until reporting season before investing; definitions of "positive sentiment"; and the current takeover of IFN.

We start off this episode with a recap of last week's journal entries, then answer your questions about when Tony sells a stock, how to build a portfolio from scratch, the pros and cons of different Buy and Sell order types, and which stocks are in Tony's portfolio.

Our guest today is Johannes Risseeuw, Executive Chairman of Damstra (DTC). He talks to us about what Damstra does, what the role of an Executive Chairman involves, the capital raising process, and what Tony was like 20 years ago when they worked together at Shell.

We talk about the thinking behind some of Tony’s recent journal entries, including Eclipx (ECX), AGL, Credit Corp (CCP) and Sandfire Resources (SFR). Then we get into answering questions. Elmar asks about Michael Hill International (MHJ) and how to mathematically find out at what point the selected stock is no longer a buy. Chris asks whether or not we can use a moving average to replace the three-point trend line. Dr J asks how Tony decides when to sell a stock.

On this Q&A episode, TK answers questions about whether stocks that have been bought in an Up trend perform better than those bought after a break out from a Down Trend, about the relative importance of market depth for LYL, whether or not profit taking makes any sense, how he uses the the 52 week high AFR list, HUG lines, the three point trend line for ANZ, and the logic of selling AGD.

Stephen Mayne is one of Australia's best known and most feared shareholder activists. He's also the founder of Crikey, a writer for InvestSmart and claims to own the world’s biggest small share portfolio: 500 holdings worth less than $30,000. He came on today to chat about capital raisings and shareholder activism.

TK talks me through how to re-evaluate the watchlist when we are ready to buy something and then we answer your questions about the recently added Stock Doctor filters (SDMax, Financial Health Trend, etc), the GEAR buy last week, how much time Tony spends on his portfolio each day and the pros and cons of having a portfolio of only 10 stocks instead of 20.

Today "St Anthony" answers your questions, reveals the true cost of sending kids to private school, and explains how he approaches raising a wealthy child.

Our guest this week is Michael Dee from Pythagoras Investing - www.PythagorasInvesting.com. His tool "predicts the timing of upcoming share events and their positive or negative price effects."

This week we have a 100 minute premium episode answering all of your excellent questions about subjects such as: - banks and sentiment - AQG / SSR merger - Stanmore Coal acquisition offer - Buying more when the price drops below the buy line - Using a 5 yr/weekly chart to help fine tune your trend lines - using the checklist to score LICs - holding back on the retail sector - thoughts about oil glut and prices affecting Oil/Coal companies - During times of volatility (like GFC or dot com bust) did Tony notice a similar increase in buy/sell? - How Tony stages his entry into a position - How he regression test the results/model - The buy line for OSH - SFC sell price and recent update on their financials - How does Tony decides what percentage of his capital to invest when he BUY stocks such as MQG - How to analyse the TGP graph - Why the TRS, WPL and MQG charts are different - and Tony also introduces his new magic 3PTL maths.

Nicholas Gruen is an economist, entrepreneur and commentator. He is CEO of Lateral Economics. He spoke to us recently about Modern Monetary Theory and the short-term future of the Australian economy.

Tony talks about some of his recent "musings" regarding bank stocks and comparing the results of his analysis of using Stock Doctor filters versus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his reasons for our recent portfolio buys and sells.

Alex Hay is a partner at broking firm EL&C Baillieu. He has been Tony's stock broker for 25+ years. Alex joined us recently to chat about the services firms like his provide, his relationship with Tony, and what he thinks might happen in the market over the next 6-12 months.

We talk about the recent Berkshire Hathaway AGM, Tony "muses" about buying NAB without waiting for positive sentiment (shock! horror!), discusses some new theories about using Stock Doctor filters, and then he answers a ton of your questions about - pyramiding - whether or not Tony ever sets a margin where he always cashes in the profit - how to calculate the intrinsic value of each of the top 20 stocks - and a heap of questions about drawing three-point trend lines.

We're joined by two young value investors, Jackson Lee and Ricky Yeo from the Sydney Superinvestors meetup, who talk about how they manage their portfolios and what they consider to be their hot tips of good value stocks.

Today we answer your questions about why we're buying back into the market even though Tony has doubts over the recovery - how we account for the quality of management in our analysis - how much attention Tony pays to volume of shares traded - Stock Doctor's "Price to Cashflow" and "Price to NTA" filters - how to calculate three-point trend line sell signals - how the checklist weights ‘quality’ vs ‘value’ metrics - how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (versus "you breach you gone") - Stock Doctor's diluted weighted no. of ordinary shares vs 'Fully Paid Ord. Shares' - HAW's future cash flow - Milton Corporation's conference call - and how to go about setting up a brand new portfolio.

Chris Tate from Talking Trading and The Trading Game joins us today to talk about his approach to investing, futures trading and turtle trading. Then we answer some listener questions about whether or not the market has priced in the coming economic carnage.

How are Australia's two million small businesses coping with the lockdown? Is the government stimulus helping? What will happen to them on the other side of the crisis? To help us get our heads around these questions, we're joined today by Kane Kelfkens, owner of The Family Jewels, a jewellery business with several outlets in Sydney. Then we answer some of your investing questions, about dollar cost averaging, the possibility of a US currency devaluation, the best sources to find stocks, and whether or not Tony sells his entire holding or just a part of it when it breaches the downwards three-point trend line.

Mark Jones is an old friend of Cameron's, CEO of Sydney PR and marketing firm Filtered Media, and author of the new book about corporate storytelling, "Beliefonomics". Tony and Cameron caught up with him in Sydney recently for a chat.

Tony walks us through his decision to buy some STO shares last week (as per the email we sent to QAV Club members on Friday). Tony then answers some member questions about Stanmore Coal, how listed investment vehicles lend themselves to QAV analysis, the KMT rights issue, and Roger Montgomery’s recent article.

Part 3 of our rebooted getting started podcasts. This picks up where episode 303 left off, halfway through the QAV checklist.

Tony thinks the market is going through the "five stages of grief" and we debate which stage we are up to. He also talks about the "Coppock Curve" which suggests markets, like people, go through periods of mourning. Then we answer some of your questions about: the best way to set up a profile to trade, comparing full-service brokers to low-cost DIY options, how to treat companies with negative “net income “, what Tony thinks about Discounted Cash Flow calculations, his thoughts on the possibility of inflation in the next few years, whether or not he ever uses options, whether or not found he has found any companies with good scores lately, and what he thinks about Kathmandu

Part 2 of our "getting started" reboot. In this episode we get into the nitty-gritty of the checklist and the data sources we use.

Back to answering your questions today, including topics about leveraging your portfolio, replacing Stock Doctor with another data source, banning short-selling, investing in REITs, how to prioritise the watch list, and just generally when to buy back in. Tony's basic approach right now is to "wash your hands - and then sit on 'em."

As it's been a year since we recorded our "introduction to QAV" episodes, a couple of our listeners suggested it would be a good idea to re-record them, now that we're much smoother on the mic. So we present - QAV Reboot. We introduce ourselves and the QAV system of investing in shares.

While Friday brought a dead cat bounce, Tony thinks the correction is just getting started. He says we're yet to see the impact of the coming credit crunch. We answer a question about whether or not Tony invests for the purpose of living off the dividend income, and in our club edition we analyse Macmahon Holdings (MAH) just for practice. As I say - NOW is the time to send yourself to QAV University. When the market turns around, we should all be ready with a watchlist so we can jump in quickly and ride it all the way up in the next cycle.

Tons of questions this week from club members about how to invest during a market correction. And as the market is still in free fall, we don't bother with a stock analysis. So we just spend 90 minutes answering your excellent questions.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett Yes, the market is in freefall - but that's great for disciplined value investors. As Tony explains on this week's episode, large market downturns happen once every five-seven years, and it's in the rebounds that the best investors make big moves. He talks more about how he uses the three point trend line during downturns and we discuss some of our favourite snippets from this year's Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's newsletter.

Tony talks about the UNV offer and why we sold it last week and CSV's recent acquisition, which took it out of our portfolio. To answer a question from QAV Club member Nick B, we also talk more about when and why Tony will exit a stock. Our Stock Of The Week is AQG, Alacer Gold. And then, we watch in amusement as the ASK dives while we are recording the episode and Tony explains why, as a value investor, he worries more about his golf swing than he does and ups and downs of "Mr Market".

​Steven Mabb is our guest on the show today. He's a recent QAV Club subscriber but has been a full time investor for the last couple of years, since exiting a very successful footwear business.He and Tony compare notes about investing in International ETFs, why buying stock #201 is a good strategy, neobanks, shareholder associations, and cheap brokerage versus using a full service broker.In our Club edition, our stock of the week is BPT (again). And we answer a question from Ange about what qualifies as a 'recent positive upturn'. We also talk again about the decline of our portfolio in recent weeks due to the COVID-19 panic. Tony reminds us about Warren Buffett's story about "Mr Market".

Our portfolio continues to take a hit from COVID-19. But Tony is as calm as a zen master. He's the ICEMAN. We talk about the corruption allegations against HZN and changes to CIA's listing. Our stock of the week is MFD.

Tony discusses his portfolio management strategy during a downturn like the Wuhan Black Swan that is currently going on. He also answers some listener questions about having a small portfolio and debt-to-equity ratios. Our stock of the week is Korvest (KOV).

This week we're joined by Rudy Filapek-Vandyck from fnarena.com. He explains his "super stock" or "all-weather performer" investing strategy. In the QAV Club extended episode, Tony discusses the effect the Wuhan virus has had on the ASX and our portfolio this week, the latest results from CCP, and we break down the financials of AMI.

As we're into "confession season" and have "reporting season" rapidly approaching, Tony shares some of the details of the filters/alerts he uses in Stock Doctor to find opportunities. He also answers a listener question about the benefits of using free cash flow versus operating cash flow. Our stock of the week is CIA - Champion Iron.

Tony answers some questions from listener Jamie in Perth about balance between property and shares. He also talks about a couple of investing books he's been reading, and in our Club edition we analyse BSL - Bluescope Steel.

Season Two of our investing podcast!! We look at our portfolio's month end report and how it compared to the All Ords Total Return index and answer questions from Club Member Mike L about the accuracy of future predictions. Then we talk about commodities trend lines as a source of comfort when investing in coal, and our analysis this week is GRR.

Our guest this week is listener Andre Bravo, a Canadian who has a Masters in Applied Computational Economics and works in the weed industry. Oh NOW I have your attention! Andre joined us this week to talk about the app he has written to speed up his own QAV analysis, and then we get his help to analyse our first US stock - Hertz (HTZ.N). It's an interesting one because we couldn't use our usual tools and had to resort to pulling up numbers manually. The basic lesson is that the checklist can be used to analyse US stocks. Andre also asks a few really great questions about how Tony uses the checklist and gave a refresher course how on to simulate Stock Doctor's financial strength rating using other sources of data. Thanks for all of your support this year! We hope you learned a lot and are feeling more confident in your ability to analyse stocks. We'll be back next week with Season Two of our investing podcast!

On this episode: We have our second QAV Club subscriber guest, Paul, a criminal lawyer from Sydney, who calls himself "a disastrous investor". Paul asked Tony a bunch of great questions about the checklist, including drilling down on why Tony doesn't try to understand a business deeply before he invests in it (like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch), and about understanding how to factor in shorting. Cameron reads out some quotes from "Winning The Loser’s Game" by Charles D Ellis and gets Tony's comments on them. Our stock deep dive of the week is MRC - Mineral Commodities.

We have our first QAV Club subscriber guest - Murray Bruce from Bruce Insurance in Perth, one of our first subscribers. He asks Tony a question about whether or not he is comfortable purchasing any share that rates well, or does he do additional research on the company before making a buy.

This week we talk about why our portfolio outperformed the index by 1300%, the wisdom of Peter Lynch, why Howard Marks wants to stay in the middle, and our stock analysis of the week is Universal Coal.

Tony talks about rights issues and some of the complexities involved in knowing whether to take them up or not. I know, right? Sounds boring! It wasn't actually, I learned a lot. We also discussed a few recent news articles about value investing, Tony reveals his wine of the week, and in our analysis section we breakdown the financials of Horizon Oil.

Another long episode! WIth talk about why we sold Apollo Tourism again. Howard Marks and the "Great Sag". Tony explains how to calculate a Discounted Cash Flow in detail. We talk about our friend Torsten's new bitcoin film "Cryptopia" and what we think about bitcoin as an investment. Tony reveals his drink of the week. And our analysis this week is Tap Oil.

In this week's jam packed episode, we answer the following questions from new subscriber Tess in Melbourne: 1. During reporting season, how do you decide which companies to put through the checklist given there are 2000 or so listed companies on the ASX? 2. The AFR new 52 week high tables have not been available since July, is there any other place I can source this info or can you recommend an alternative strategy for picking stocks to analyse? 3. I would like to be able to perform my own financial strength analysis as I do not have stock doctor. Cameron went over this briefly in one of your earlier episodes but there are some gaps in my knowledge. We also talk about the Sohn Hearts and Minds conference that's happening this week as well as the Wilson Asset Management AGM.

This week Tony answers a couple of questions from club member Dave about why Warren Buffet & Berkshire are sitting on a massive pile of cash and how Tony is preparing for a "global market crunch". We also talk some more about listed investment companies and in our club section we take a look at the financials of gold miner PRU (Perseus Mining).

This week Tony explains why he sometimes invests in Listed Investing Companies like Wilson Asset Management. We also talk about what to do with our worst-performing stock SMR, our extremely good end of month results, Tony’s horse that ran on Melbourne Cup day (not as good), and my son Taylor joins us to analyse oil and gas exploration and production company CUE.

I found myself listening to Kenny Rogers' The Gambler recently (one of my dad's favourite songs when I was a kid) and it made me think of this week's show. "You gotta know when to hold 'em; Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away; Know when to run." This week we have a lot of questions from club members about when to sell and three-point trendlines. We also talk about Tony's horse that ran in the Cox Plate and why the checklist doesn't have a debt-to-equity data point. Our stock analysis this week is KSL - Kina Securities.

This week on the show, The Value Investing Guru and Cameron talk about some difficulties getting Share Analysis to do what we want; a new analysis tool called QuickFS; stories about Warren Buffett; Cameron's growing passion around QAV; changes to our portfolio involving Apollo Tourism and Stanmore Coal; and in our deep dive analysis this week we look at Mastermyne.

This week we have a guest – Cameron Britten from Share Analysis. As longtime listeners will be aware, Tony’s a big fan of several online tools and Share Analysis has been one of those for many years. They had a recent “re-platforming” event which took the service down for a few months. But they are back and we invited Cameron on to talk a little about the history and the future of the service. He also let us know that they are currently running an extended free trial service, so if aren’t already a member, jump over to their website and sign up today. Services like this make value investing much easier than it was back in the early days of Berkshire Hathaway and Benjamin Graham.